21/01/2018 The Papers


21/01/2018

No need to wait to see what's in the papers - tune in for a lively and informed conversation about the next day's headlines.


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LineFromTo

on a Kabul hotel -

they're thought to have been

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deliberately targeted.

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Hello, and welcome to our look ahead

to what the the papers will be

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bringing us tomorrow.

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With me are Ben Chu,

the economics editor

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at The Independent, and Ruth Lea,

who's an Economics Adviser

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for the Arbuthnot Banking Group.

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Many of tomorrow's front

pages are already in.

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The FT leads with news

that the German government has taken

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a step towards breaking a four-month

deadlock, as Angela Merkel's Social

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Democratic party voted in favour

of formal coalition talks.

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The Metro reports on the death

of eight year-old Mylee Billingham

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who was stabbed in Walsall.

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The front page of The Express

features the BBC's interview with

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French President Emmanuel Macron -

and his comments that French people

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would also vote to leave the EU

if they had the chance.

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The I says wildlife conservations

have issued a warning that the UK

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is aiding sales of ivory,

because there is no outright ban

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on sales on the illegal goods.

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And The Telegraph leads with a story

about the British Army -

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the paper says that a lack

of resources means our troops

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are struggling to keep up

with military advances in other

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countries like Russia.

So it's a mixed bag of stories

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from those papers there -

with lots to discuss and more front

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pages still to come in.

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We will bring you those as get them.

Let us start shall we with the FT,

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as our first story, and Angela

Merkel, the German situation which

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has been a complete sort of flux for

four months but finally the SPD do

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seem to have been won round to

entering formal coalition talk, to

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you think this has saved Angela

Merkel?

Well, it is a significant

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moment obviously, because as you

say, after the back in September

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when they had the election, it was

expected she would sweep to a strong

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position, and it should be a simple

process, it has been anything but.

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She tried to make a coalition of the

Greens and Liberals, that failed.

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Now she has been forced to other old

partners in the SPD. They have.

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Voted just about to allow these

talks to begin,

Pretty close.

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Tighter than people thought it was

going to be. It looks like they are

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going to go ahead. The betting is

they will probably do a deal. What

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would be the price of that deal?

What programme will this new fourth

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Government led by Angela Merkel

have? There is lots of speculation,

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maybe it will be more European

integration, more health spending,

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it looks like it will probably be

quite influenced by what the SPD

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wanted, because Merkel has nowhere

to go now, this is her last chance.

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She has listen left a slightly

weaker figure because of this. She

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has been awful powerful in the EU

for a long time, but this has been a

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bit of a knock back for her.

It has

been appalling for her. In fact her

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party, the CDU and the SPD did very

badly or relatively badly in the

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September elections and the SPD

blamed having been in the Grand

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Coalition with the CDU for their

poor showing. Initially the SPD

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leader said I don't want to do with

any more coalitions so he has almost

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been dragged kicking and screaming

into this position. So as Ben said,

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the next thing is to have the

detailed coalition arrangements

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decided, then it has to go the

membership, that will be March,

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which is six months after the

election, what a mess, and the

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membership may throw it out. Merkel

looks an incredibly weakened leader,

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interestingly enough, because of her

weakness Macron has managed to come

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in and look as though he is the

golden boy and almost the leader of

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the European Union. But it has

certainly helped France that Jeremy

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are so weak.

When we had a coalition

here in 2010 we were frustrated it

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took ten days to sort it out. This

is incredible, such a powerful

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country can be without a government.

The Germans are a lot more used to

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cogses, the nature of their

constitution and political system.

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This is abnormally long, even by

German standards. And it does, it

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is, it is not uncharted territory

but it is very fragile territory.

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What is interesting what does this

mean for Germany's role in Brexit

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negotiations as far as the UK is

concerned.

You mentioned is Macron

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there, let us look at the front-page

of the Daily Express, man Ron in an

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interview, a BBC interview today and

after that visit to Sandhurst to see

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Theresa May which was quite an

event. This headline saying the

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French would vote to leave the EU, I

think that would be Frexit. Macron

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said he thinks the French people

would feel the same way. Why was

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that?

Frantic Frexit. There are is a

lot of Euro-scepticism in France and

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Le Pen managed to pick up on this h

but he was interesting what he said

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to Andrew Marr, yes, probably in a

similar context but our context

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would be different and he would

fight hard for the prech people to

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stay within the European Union, but

the mere fact he sort of suggested

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you know perhaps the EU isn't all

singing dancing for the French

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people is exciting. Thinking back to

the Lisbon Treaty in 2005. If memory

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serves me right the French voted

against it. The Dutch, the Irish but

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they were asked to vote again. This

idea is that Europe is everything to

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France is just not true, they are

still a very nationalistic country

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that interesting because of this

meeting with May, still wants to do

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bilateral deals which I find

interesting.

Macron's solution to

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that is closer integration, within

the EU, so, that is how he thinks

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they should improve things with the

European Union.

But he is also

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making the point about the nature of

referendums, he went on to say if

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you give people a yes or no question

you will get a distorted answer

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because you don't know exactly what

people are voting about. He was

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saying, he seemed to be saying the

way I read it, I would never have

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put myself in the position that

David Cameron put himself in by

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offering this all-or-nothing volt to

the British people. He is saying,

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you have to give people about to

find solution to the problems they

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may see in the relationship between

your country and the European Union,

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so it was a bit subtle. Ruth is

right, the idea French, all French

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love the EU and they are massively

pro European is not true, at the

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same time he was making a slightly

subtle point about the nature of

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referendums and how they can be, not

answer the questions people want

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them to.

You mentioned his clear

ambition you know to be a leader in

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the EU, particularly with Angela

Merkel maybe weakened, what did you

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make of his visit with Theresa May,

how he handled that. How he has

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handled things on the world stage.

It was fine, some of my fellow

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Brexiteers had a nervous breakdown

he came at all. He is talking about

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Britain can get a bespoke trade deal

with the EU. I think this is

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positive. Then he went on the talk

about financial services but that is

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negotiation, that is one noise, I

thought he was being positive. I was

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interested in the way he wanted to

have this bilateral security

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agreement with the United Kingdom,

in other words we still want to be

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friends, we still want to deal with

you even though you are having the

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temerity to leave the currency union

European Union.

He did talk about

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Britain can't cherry pick.

He was

straight about it. That is why

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people appreciate it. If you leave

the EU you can't expect to have the

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same benefits a being in otherwise

there would be no point being in it,

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a simple line. He says when it comes

to the single market the same apply,

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you can't have it unless you are in

it. A lot of people are falling over

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themselves in admiration about a

French politician who comes over

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here and speaks English. It is the

clarity of the message, that people

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appreciate that sort of straighted

for wardness as well.

Talking of --

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straightforwardness. Let us move on

to the story about Ukip. And their

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leader Henry Bolton, who is today

had a vote of no confidence and the

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party membership will have to vote

on what happens to him. I have lost

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track how many leaders.

Or how many

girlfriends he has has.

It is

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because of her tweets he is in some

trouble. His argument is this is

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what my girlfriend, what she says,

it shouldn't have anything to do

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with his leadership of Ukip. What do

you think?

I think he looks

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incredibly weak and the National

Executive committee, they met today

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and voted in no confidence. I think

he is toast. But come to that, I

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think Ukip is pretty much toast, I

think he is the fourth or the fifth

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leader, there was Diane James and

Paul Nuttall, and someone called

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Nigel Farage if my memory serves my

correctly! The big question has to

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be for Ukip do they have a future

and I suspect they don't. Their

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great raison d'etre was to leave the

EU. What is interesting, we have a

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picture here in the Express, of

Nigel Farage, and he is presumably

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or apparently in conversation with

someone called Aaron banks with the

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idea of having a new organisation,

which may be out of what, there is

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something at the moment called Leave

Means Leave I think it might be

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something out of that to keep

Theresa May's nose to the

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grindstone.

But that is the role. I

remember on the morning of the

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referendum interviewing Nigel Farage

and saying that, what is the point?

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You have succeeded, you have got

what you wanted but he said we are

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going to hold their feet to the

fire, we will make sure they deliver

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Brexit, that is what some Brexiteers

feel, is there a role for Ukip?

You

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can make that case, I mean the

trouble is it has become such a

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pantomime, the ins and outs of the

character in it and what their views

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are and this stuff, it is not

anything to do with the project

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which the party was founded to

further, and to what extent does

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this now distract from their point

of view, from the actual objective

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itself? And I presume this is why

Aaron Banks and Nigel Farage are

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setting up a new organisation,

because the existing one is so

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tainted, even by the standard of

political parties it is just become

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a hindrance rather than a help.

Do

you think the party or any party

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with this view can succeed, without

Nigel Farage? It seems to be without

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him at the Mel. They can't cut

through?

I think that is right. I

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think that is why he wants to have

this this new movement away from

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Ukip. It is worth remembering that

back in 2014, Ukip won the European

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Union elections in this country,

which was extraordinary, so

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obviously that was, but it has gone,

I think Ukip's time is over.

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OK. Let us go now to the Financial

Times again and this time the US

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shut down. I thought this happened

all the time. It has only happened

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four times in 25 year, the

difference one party the Republicans

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are in control of both houses, so

that is unusual. What is going on?

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They have failed to agree to roll

over the agreement to keep funning

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the federal Government. Without

that, it means that apart from the

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very basic law enforcement and the

military, everything shuts down,

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they can't pay the wanes of people

who work in it, and they don't have

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to work until that I do, they are

going to meet again on Monday so

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presumably the last shut down was 16

day, they will aim do better than

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that. It is interesting you say it

has only happened four times in 25

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years, that is a lot. Huge

responsibilities and very important

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jobs to do, all across the public

sector in the US, it is a sign of

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dysfunction, this really is S they

couldn't agree, senior politicians

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on each side, and the brokering of

the presidency couldn't agree to

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keep federal Government running. It

is not a great symbol of American

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democracy.

It is a massive fail your

of American Government.

The last

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time it happened in 2013 and the

Government closed down for a month.

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This is about the budget for the

fiscal year, 2017/18 which started

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in October, but as Ben was saying

they were talking about rolling over

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and they have had two extension,

they can't agree on the third, and

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they can't agree on the budget, it

is is a bit of a mess, what Trump

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needs is a 60 vote support in the

Senate, so he has to have 60-40 vote

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and the problem is he only had 51

Senators so he has to say something

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nice to the Democrats.

Is that going

to come easily, do you think?

It is

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interesting because he styled

himself as this great deal broker,

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the guy who wasn't sort of mired in

the infighting of politics, he was

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above that. But he has not been able

to... The Democrats say we will do a

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deal but we need you to go the

Republicans and say, they say he is

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too weak to do that, to stand up to

the Republican, who knows what the

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truth is, that what they are saying.

He will have to come of politics, he

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was above that. But he has not been

able to... The Democrats say we will

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do a deal but we need you to go the

Republicans and say, they say he is

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too weak to do that, to stand up to

the Republican, who knows what the

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truth is, that what they are saying.

He will have to come pro-Mize, but

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he is a "Deal maker" he will sort

it.

Let us finish with the Daily

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Telegraph. We have heard a lot about

Big Ben. It is looking a bit sad at

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the moment, covered in scaffolding.

This headline says Eurosceptics Big

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Ben will not bong Britain out of the

EU because they did resurrect it for

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New Year eves, didn't they, but that

is what they are clearly concerned

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about. Do people care about this?

I

am sure some people care deeply.

I

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care.

I bet they will do it. You

know, what David Lidington, the

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cabinet minister said today. If you

get enough people to sign a

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petition, regardless of how many,

what proportion of the country care,

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if enough people make out they care,

then that I will probably happen,

We

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should have Big Ben bonging us out

of the EU.

Would you be standing

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there in Parliament Square?

Unless

they go up to Rochdale Town Hall

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where the bells are similar. Let us

go there.

Regional rebalancing.

We

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should have some stamps as well.

I

have read about this.

Royal Mail

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disgrace, how, if people want to

make a case for stamps, is there a

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mechanism. There were stamps when we

joined the EEC, they are tucked

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away.

Have you got them?

Of course.

On the exit we...

I treasure thresh

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your them, as I do all my stamps.

You can collect a set.

To make the

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story complete you need the exiting

stamps as well. We must leave it

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there for this hour, that is it for

The Papers for this hour. You can

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see the front-pages of The Papers

online.

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It's all there for you, seven days

a week at bbc.co.uk/papers,

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and if you miss the programme any

evening, you can watch it

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later on BBC iPlayer.

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