26/11/2015 The View

Tonight - Reflections of a spin doctor - Alastair Campbell delivers

his verdict on the political journey travelled by Peter Robinson...

Someone like Peter Robinson who was, you are right, he could be a

complete total paying to us when we were trying to do stuff in the early

days and now he is there and to the political life of Northern Ireland

alongside Martin McGuiness and that is an extraordinary story.

With the UK's future in the EU under increasing scrutiny,

are we lagging behind in weighing up the pros and cons of Brexit?

Also tonight - The DUP's getting a new leader,

but with a coronation expected rather than a competition, is that

And bringing a splash of colour to Commentators' Corner, Newton Emerson

and Cathy Gormley-Heenan are back together again...

Not for the first time, politics here has been dominated

by the all-important challenge of 'doing a deal'.

And now the pressure is on to cement the latest,

One man who lived through just such a process with the Good

Friday Agreement is Labour's former spin doctor, Alastair Campbell.

He's in Belfast tonight on a speaking engagement and just before

we came on air I asked him - as someone who knows very well just how

difficult it is to reach agreement on issues concerning the past here -

how regrettable is it that legacy isn't part of the 'Fresh Start'

You will always get at every stage of the process, when I was working

with Tony Blair, you always have that, what ever you did there were

always people who came out in the aftermath and said this will

collapse, it does not work, it is not right. As you said earlier, this

particular deal between the two parties and the two governments and

one of those parties is the DUP, the Good Friday Agreement itself, whose

was the first voice to come out and say this will not work, this is

flawed, this is a disaster, it was Ian Paisley. The fact that someone

can say something at a moment in time does not mean that provided

those who want to take this forward continue to do so, they cannot make

progress. There have been so many, yes it is very to say that you can

go back through history and say there have been false dawns, but

there have been plenty of fresh starts as well and sometimes. Tony

Blair said many times, this process either goes forwards or backwards,

it never stand still and we have seen that and thankfully, what

happened is that it looked like it was going backwards and now, albeit

slowly, it is moving forwards. The Tories handled negotiations here

very differently to the way that Tony Blair did. Do you think their

hands off approach and David Cameron has not got involved, do you think

that this approach has worked in the circumstances? I do think that there

is a sense and this is not a criticism of David Cameron, if you

were to say what are the big priorities for your government in

this Parliament, then Northern Ireland is not automatically going

to leap to the top when you have things like the European referendum,

like Islamic State, climate change other challenges, when Tony Blair

was Prime Minister, for most of the time, he stated that Northern

Ireland was a big priority. It is evidence of how far we have come

that that should not be the case. I do think sometimes that politicians

here feel that they need more support and more input from the UK

Government at times. I think that the fact that it didn't reach the

point it has reached now with the 31-macro document, that is something

that all of us should be pleased about -- Fresh Start. Were you

surprised when you heard that Peter Robinson was stepping down? Not

really. I think that Peter Robinson is one of the many people who

understands the life he leads at the top of an organisation like that. He

has devoted so many years to a political career and there comes a

point... These are personal decisions. They are about people

deciding, as public servants but also partly about themselves,

whether they feel it is time to move on and I was surprised. I did not

know it was coming. I think sometimes people underestimate the

extent to which politicians are really tough business people. In

this part of the world particularly, it is very tough. They

do not get a lot of credit or sympathy. They get quite a lot of

grief along the way. I think that Peter Robinson is entitled to make

that decision for himself and I know that he will have done it in part,

at least a very large part, thinking about his public service and his

role as a public servant. He has been on quite a political journey,

he was very much a thorn in your side at the time of the Good Friday

Agreement and now he is standing up for a shared future and reaching

compromises with his one-time nemesis, Martin McGuiness. I have

said before that one of the most extraordinary moments of my life

after I left Downing Street. I left when Tony was still Prime Minister

and I was going to do an engagement in Dublin and I landed at the

airport and there was a billboard there and it was the first time I

saw the headline, the chuckle Brothers with Martin McGuiness and

Ian Paisley together, laughing and working together and I thought, my

God, if we had said at the start of the peace process, one day Ian

Paisley and Martin McGuiness would be called the chuckle Brothers,

people would have locked you out. The reality is, one of the reasons

why this process has worked to the extent it has is because there has

been an extraordinary collection of people really quite remarkable

people in all of the different parts of it who somehow, they have all

been around at the same time and they have all managed to make the

changes they have made. I think sometimes if you are living in

something, right in the centre of your own bubble and you can have all

these questions about this or about, but when you stand back from it and

little bit and you think about how far people have come and as you say,

someone like Peter Robinson who was, he could be a complete and total

pain to us when we were trying to do the stuff in the early days and I

was there, contributing hugely to the political life of Northern

Ireland alongside Martin McGuiness, it is an extraordinary story. Can I

move you on to the international issue of the moment, you played your

part in the UK's involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq, do you have

confidence in David Cameron's handling of the current crisis in

Syria? Because I was on the way here, I did not see his statement

but I certainly do have a complete appreciation of how difficult the

situations are and how difficult the decisions are as well. I do

think... I was on record at the time, months back, when Ed Miliband

was Labour leader and David Cameron was trying to wind parliamentary

support for action in Syria, military action, I have never

thought of it as the solution, but it might be part of it and therefore

I think it is important that he does get the support and the authority he

is looking for. What do you make of the argument that the risk posed by

UK citizens by Islamic State jihadist on these shores has

increased if UK are strikes take place in Syria. I understand why

people say that, but I say I have a complete appreciation of how

difficult these decisions are for prime ministers and MPs who are

making up their minds on this. We have got to break this narrative

that says that somehow that this is something we have brought upon

ourselves. Yes, you can go out... You could find and I could find

people who will say that they are radicalised because of what Tony

Blair and George Bush did in relation to Iraq, you can find

people, but the jihadist cars that are talking about and leaders around

the world are having to face up to, it predated all of that and it is an

ideology. That is why it is difficult, that is why it is not

just about military action and the use of soft powers. It is not just

about trying to integrate people into communities. I do think this is

one of the most difficult challenges that any leaders have faced. That is

why I am broadly sympathetic to a government that is trying at least

to give itself the different options that it thinks it might need,

working in collaboration with others facing the same challenge. I know

you have been travelling over the last 24 hours, but did you see the

Shadow Chancellor producing his copy of Chairman Mao's Little Red Book.

Yes. I did not miss that. Again, I have to ask you, if you were

advising John McDonnell, was that a stroke of genius or was that

possibly the biggest mistake he has made in his political career? I

suspect he may have made bigger, I do not know. One of the things that

I think for all the abuse and vitriol that gets thrown at Tony

Blair, one of the important lessons that everyone in politics should

learn from him is that you must never ever lose sight of the fact

that politics is not a bubble, you're not inside a bubble, it is

not about in jokes, it is about the people. If you do not win the

power, you do not win general elections and you do not get the

power and you cannot make the sort of changes you need to make as a

government. All the things that John McDonnell and Jeremy Corbyn were

complaining about that for happening in the spending review yesterday,

they are happening because we lost the election. I have got into this

thing now of asking people, not how they would vote, not whether they

would vote, not whatever party they have allegiance to, but asking if

they think that Jeremy Corbyn can win the next General Election. That

is a question that a lot of people seem to be having trouble with.

So the answer you get back is no? Correct. Are you saying you do not

think Labour can win an election with germy Corbin at the helm? I am

not saying that, but I am saying that is what the British public seem

to be saying and I think if you lose sight of the fact that politics is

all about where you are with the public, and not the people who

joined up at the last minute and voted for him and the people who go

on marches and rallies, they have an important place in politics but I am

talking about people who do not do that, who don't think about politics

often, and I want the Labour Party to be in power. I don't like this

government, I don't like a lot of things it is doing but we have to

face up to the fact that for all sorts of reasons, and we have to

accept the things the Labour government did under Tony Blair that

were hugely unpopular, not just Iraq but tuition fees, we had to make the

case for those things, but at the last election we made certain

errors, not just on the economy, and I think we lost the election and I

do not want to see us lose another one that could be won.

Alastair Campbell not pulling any punches on

Now, amid the tragedies of the migrant crisis

and the aftermath of the attacks on Paris and Europe's response, the day

is drawing closer when the UK will decide on its future in the EU.

We don't yet know the date of the referendum - but

the debate has got under way on the possible consquences that withdrawal

Today, Queen's University hosted a discussion featuring the

Irish Minister for Foreign Affairs, Charlie Flanagan, and the

This is not just about the nation chips our islands, or the British

and Irish relationship, as important as these are, but it is also about

livelihoods, living standards, jobs, that to my mind are firmly on the

line. I know the risks to our economy are matched by other risks,

it has been forecast that GDP could decline by 3%, that 1 billion euros

would be taken out of the economy, which would be a heavy price for the

people of Northern Ireland. We are not in the euro, we are not part of

Europe's Schengen area, so I questioned some of the more

exaggerated Europhile scare stories about the consequences of Britain

leaving the EU. Many have been advanced by the same people and the

same institutions who said if we didn't join the euro it would be a

disaster for the UK. With me now are the TUV leader,

Jim Allister, who supports a British exit from the EU, and the

SDLP's Alban Maginness, who wants You are both welcome. Jim Allister,

are you confident in the Prime Minister's capacity to renegotiate

the UK's turns in the EU? No, and you can judge by the quality and

content of his letter that he is not serious and self about it, he is

asking for the minimum of things so he can claim some victory and

recommend we continue to be in the EU, whereas for the future of this

nation we need deliberation that would come from loosening the

shackles and escaping from the EU because it is yesterday's failed

vision. The future lies in the developing world, the EU share of

world trade is vastly diminishing, we now trade more outside the EU

than within yet we cannot make a trade deal with anyone, only Europe

can do that for us, so it would be liberating to escape as a trading

nation and build links with the rest of the world and regain control of

our own destiny and borders, something very important in light of

recent events. That doesn't really chime with what the business

community in Northern Ireland seems to think. The group Chief Executive

of Dale farm and chair of inter-trade Ireland spoke on a Radio

Ulster isn't a grant and said while the EU was far from perfect he could

not see an upside in withdrawal, they thought we would leave the

biggest free trade zone in the world is a region dependent on agriculture

and manufacturing, it would be catastrophic to think of leaving.

The CBI, who are cheerleaders for Europe, are heavily from the front

Brussels, so are doing their bidding, but the UK ports ?20

billion a year into Brussels. With the rebate and EU grants we get back

half of that, so every year it costs ?10 billion. Northern Ireland is a

net recipient. No, our share of the contribution is in the order of ?500

million. We get back 300 thousand in -- 300 million in agriculture, so

even we who have another look more than most or a net contributor, but

this is a national decision and it would be liberating for the UK to

recapture control of itself and its borders, and to open up the world

expanse that lies out there for our trade. Allman McGuinness, has Jim

Allister got his figures right? -- Albany McGuinness? I don't think so,

but leaving that aside, the EU is a huge market. Our business people and

our farmers, and Jim should talk to farmers in North Antrim and ask them

their view of leaving the EU because our farmers get ?400 million...

Well, 420 14. -- ?400 million in 2014. Money comes to the farmers

from Europe. Which we paid in. The people who farmed the land need that

money to sustain themselves and the people on the farms in our country

recognise that there is a benefit, as indeed do the business people,

because they know that market is so vague and important. You would not

able to attract people in terms of inward investment here if Northern

Ireland leaves the EU. Why do you think so many people in Northern

Ireland appear to be unconvinced about the merits of remaining with

in an unfettered EU? I am not certain that is true. I think a

series of opinion polls will determine that. Look at the European

election last May. The TUV and Ukip candidate can bind got 100,000

votes. And the DUP and Sinn Fein were elected, both of them would be

Eurosceptic in fact the DUP is ostensibly anti-European. You are

making my point for me. No, because people are voting for parties not on

the basis of Europe but on narrow sectarian interests here in Northern

Ireland, and that is a problem for us. We have to develop a big vision

in relation to Europe. We cannot be insular. Northern Ireland is a small

part of the UK, it is also a region within Ireland and it is therefore

interdependent on both the Republic and the UK in order to get the

maximum benefits it requires to be in the European Union. It is not

about being insular. My vision is to open our eyes to the rest of the

world. But by closing your eyes to the European Union. It is moribund,

in ten years time its share of the world GDP will be down to 22%. It is

yesterday's story as far as world trade is concerned. Look at the

eurozone and the catastrophe it has been recently and yet people want to

tie us closer to that went out there there is a trading world where we as

a nation can flourish. Why would we chain ourselves to something that is

failing and declining? You point out difficult ease that exist in terms

of red tape, yet you scrap that and you try to set up, however complex

that would be, new trade deals with other trading locks, you would be

tied up with the same red tape. You couldn't guarantee that would not be

the case, so you would swap one red tape or another. No, because we

would then have the right to conclude around trade deals. No

member state can trade with anyone, we would be master of own destiny

and the rest of Europe would still trade with us because we are

running... You don't just wave your magic wand. Article 50 of the

Lisburn Treaty imposes an obligation on the EU in respect of any exiting

country that they shall conclude a trading with them, so we're

guaranteed one, but because they sell us more than we sell them, they

will still want to sell their BMWs in the UK, so they will fall over

themselves to maintain trade links and we will be able to expand our

trade links were our growth Markets are. One of the implications of this

debate, as far as Northern Ireland is concerned, trading with our

nearest partner, the Republic of Ireland? It will create terrible

difficulties. Will it necessarily? Yes, because we will be outside the

EU and being inside the EU means there is freedom of labour and

capital between North and South in this Ireland -- in this Ireland over

the past 40 years, and that means we can work together in terms of trade

and commerce and industry, and economically that is a benefit to

both parts of Ireland. Do you want to see a new network, Jim Allister,

posts across-the-board? -- of custom poets? I believe if we leave the EU

the Republic of Ireland may see the wisdom of that. You complain about

the Republic of Ireland or think its nose in our business that you are

coming close to sticking your nose in its business. They might discover

their economic interests lie elsewhere than in the EU, but last

year our experts were 14 billion, 8 billion to the rest of the UK. Of

the remaining 6 billion, only half was to the EU and of that 2 billion

to the Republic. The other 3 billion was to the rest of the world, so our

dependency is outside the EU and with the rest of the UK and the rest

of the world, and that is the case in Northern Ireland. Ireland is one

of the biggest trading partners with the UK, so it is important to

maintain that link in terms of the union. Apart from that, the

political union is very important for the relationship between great

rotten and Ireland, and Northern Ireland and the Republic -- Great

Britain. It all comes together, solid economic arguments for staying

within Europe, and good political arguments for staying in Europe. Do

you think the tide is moving at the moment, given the way the debate has

changed, even just in the past few months, there is now a head of steam

holding up behind the possibility of Greg said in a way that there was

not a year ago? -- Brexit? Does that worry you? It does, and I think

those of us in Northern Ireland, especially parties who are pro-EU

like the SDLP and Alliance, that we campaigned strongly because the

Northern Ireland vote could determine the overall UK vote. Jim

Allister, would you be concerned that people make construct

arguments, even make decisions, potentially vote on an emotional

knee jerk reaction after things like that Paris attacks and the lockdown

in Brussels, rather than look at the economic fact as laid out over the

months ahead? Am sure there will be contributors to how people make up

their minds. That would be dangerous. It is a valid for a

nation to look around and say it is common sense to control our own

borders, yet in the EU we surrender that, so controlling our borders and

our destiny, deciding who we will trade with, our component parts of a

vibrant, growing economy and nation state, and that is what I want to

see rather than be tied to something dragging us down. I suspect we will

hear more of that. Thank you both. Now, for anyone who attended the DUP

conference last weekend there's unlikely to be

a leadership contest. Instead the die seems cast

for the 'coronation' of Nigel Dodds as leader and Arlene Foster

as First Minister. More on this with

our commentators shortly - I bid each of you a fond

and affectionate farewell. For Peter Robinson, the end

of the political road is near, Unless the party was trying to lay

a false trail, Saturday's conference seemed to confirm what

everyone else believes - his deputy, Nigel Dodds, will become leader

with Arlene Foster First Minister. Nigel has been faithful,

loyal and wise and always willing You don't just see him

when the cameras roll. He's there to do his portion

of the unappealing drudgery And my thanks to Arlene Foster,

our Finance Minister, who has effectively deputised

for me at Stormont. The message seemed pointed and

the sustained applause for Arlene Foster the answer to those who would

claim the DUP rank and file wouldn't allow such an important post to go

to a former Ulster Unionist. Can we justify Nigel Dodds about

Sterling speech? I somehow think he is a man will be hearing more from

in the future. We will what happens. But according to an academic who

interviewed Nigel Dodds for a book about the DUP last year, he

has reservations about whether the Nigel Dodds is on record as saying

that the party leader has to be a member of the assembly. They are

trying to circumvent that if Arlene Foster is First Minister.

Unless, that is, someone else puts their hand up and

The East Antrim MP Sammy Wilson was asked last week if

I have said time and time again, until there is the leadership

contest, I will not be saying anything about what I am doing.

Maybe the deputy leadership? Peter Robinson is still the leader, the

party will make a decision as to when and how things are going to

change and I am not saying what I'm going to do or not going to do.

MUSIC: 'For He's A Jolly Good Fellow'.

But public division is not the DUP's way of doing things,

and unless they're about to start, the way ahead seems clear.

So it it a shoo-in for Nigel and Arlene?

Let's put that question to Newton Emerson and

Cathy Gormley-Heenan, back together again in Commentators' Corner.

Happily back together again. Good to see you both. Should we be getting

our gladrags ready for a coronation? I think so. The Belfast

Telegraph did a survey at the conference. 98% said that Arlene

Foster was their favourite to be First Minister. I do not think those

North Korean levels are going to survive the contest. Nigel Dodds and

Arlene Foster are really a dream ticket for the DUP. That is if there

is a contest. Do you think there will be a contest? Will other people

throw their hats in the ring? The remarks from Sammy Wilson were

interesting. In the 40 years of the DUP's existence there has ever been

a leadership contest, someone has always been appointed to the post,

but that is not to say that it cannot change. The Ulster Unionist

Party changed over the years in terms of how they are elected their

party leader, they moved from the selection of the council to a

broader membership and as it stands, Peter Robinson was elected with

votes from the assembly members and we do not know and Sammy Wilson

alluded to that, whether or not this electorate of the party leadership

will broaden out beyond that. Does this matter that Professor Jon Tonge

had said that the leader would have to be an assembly ladder -- member?

Like politicians always say, they never want to be leader when asked

and in this case you have to consider he was talking about the

party being led by one person, that is part of the reason why this dire

key is part of the reason why this dire gears been opposed -- macro

proposed. I think that these Alastair Campbell figures cover all

the political bases in the party. They are quite popular across the

party and that helps patch up any differences that might be. Could

they work together? You could have a 3 headed monster, you can have a

separate Deputy Leader which is another possibility to satisfy

another wing in the party. That is the unknown. The relationship that

these two will have together, they have ever worked together before,

this plan, people think it is Robinson's succession plan but it is

bigger, it has come organically out of the party once had realised that

Peter Robinson is on the way out. It is more something that has been

forced upon these two. This is an important point because the way in

which a party selects its leader is indicative, it is was like a litmus

test for the democratic nature of the party. If it is as Newton says,

this has been agreed as part of the plan. It says a lot in terms of that

acid test for the democratic nature of the internal workings of the

party. How big a challenge might it be for the two of them to work with

Sinn Fein when both of them personally in the past during the

troubles were targeted by Republicans? -- Troubles. Many

people have lived with those experiences and managed to work

together, it is not a case of their experiences but the temperament and

I think it might be something to watch. Let us move on to Alistair

Campbell, very interesting to get his thoughts on a wide range of

issues on the programme tonight, what did you make about what he had

to say concerning the Labour Party as it currently stands being led by

Jeremy Corbyn? It was less than a ringing endorsement. It certainly

was not a ringing endorsement and it fits well with the conversation we

have just had in terms of this electorate for the DUP leadership

because it was very much expanded for the election of Jeremy Corbyn

and one wonders if that is part of the problem. Research would suggest

that even if you do broaden your selectors and allow

parliamentarians, party officers and members to vote for a leader that

they tend to vote for the same type of leader anyway. I would be

cautious in suggesting that it was because the doors were opened and

effectively to all party members with their ?3 to vote for Jeremy

Corbyn. Long-term members voted in the same proportion for Jeremy

Corbyn. This is the natural to choice of leader. Is it wrong to

imagine the Malcolm Tucker like conversations that might take place

if Alistair Campbell was in the role now that he was all those years ago

ayes I think of course, Seamus Mallon is an even more incredible

character. But he is a fan of Jeremy Corbyn. I think you could see that

he might have thought that was a good idea. It was pretty obvious

that Alistair Kamber -- Alistair Campbell did not think of is a good

idea. A more seasoned political opponent during Question Time would

have known that a little snippet like that could be taken out of

context and if you look at the full recording, it does not do justice in

quite the same way that that's the dead. The optics of it are very

different from what he was saying, but unfortunately, he did not

realise that. Let us talk about the Brexit debate. They are not

considering the implications. This is Western Europe, we are not going

to go hungry. If UK votes to leave the EU, there is a real possibility

that Scotland will vote to leave the UK. To leave the UK and stay in the

EU. Jim Allister raise the possibility of the Republic of

Ireland having to think about also leaving the EU. We often argue that

people boil everything down to unionist and nationalist Argos but

this seems to be a case where Unionists are not thinking enough.

They could break up the UK by following this. Most of the debate

tonight was around economic issues and not around the political issues

and I wonder how much David Cameron will take the views of the four

constituent parts of the UK if the result of that is different from

Engen. I think the circumstances for Northern Ireland are so very

different from elsewhere in the UK that he would have to take that

seriously. The entire Good Friday Agreement was based on the premise

of them being on the use of the issues there in the North and South

arrangements. If the anguish vote to leave there will not allow any other

constituent part to stop them -- English. I suspect it will be a

lively debate. That's it from The View

for this week. Join me for Sunday Politics

at 11:35pm here on BBC One. We leave you tonight with

a look back at the colourful and, at times, highly controversial career

of Alderman Ruth Patterson, who was From everyone in the team,

bye-bye. May God forgive them for what they

have just under Ulster. -- just done to Ulster.

I'm very proud of stir Protestant. -- I am a very proud Ulster

Protestant. Is it appropriate for our member to be wearing a football

scarf. I love my political party. Party officers unanimously decided

to expel her. It would be heart-wrenching for me to leave.