26/10/2017 The View

Will the Secretary of State's

"glide path" to greater

Westminster intervention end

with a smooth landing?

Or is the political turbulence such

that we'd better get used

to thinking about devolution

in the past tense?

Welcome to The View.

Tonight...

It is not the glide path and James

Brokenshire says he has on.

We are

laws on autopilot, just like

Northern Ireland has been and, some

would say, for the past few months.

Gareth Gordon gets his wings

in a flight simulator

but what will be the reality

if another devolution deadline

has a crash landing?

We've doubled up our commentary team

tonight to take on that question.

And because Brexit's never far away

from these discussions,

we'll get the view of the DUP's

Ian Paisley and Fianna

Fail's foreign affairs

spokesman Darragh O'Bryan.

He won't use the words "direct"

and "rule" consecutively

in the same sentence.

Instead, as he contemplates how,

and when, to move to the next phase

of the devolution crisis

at Stormont, James Brokenshire has

come up with a new formula

for telling us the end is nigh.

He says we're on a "glide path

to greater Westminster involvement".

The consensus is that that

will come early next week

when Mr Brokenshire begins

the process of setting a budget.

Gareth Gordon has beaten him

to the flight controls to see

what the future might look like.

If things don't change, we risk

being on a glide path to greater and

greater UK Government intervention.

Ultimately, on a glide path that I

have indicated, without an

agreement, we are on a glide path in

Northern Ireland to greater and

greater UK Government intervention.

So let's see how easy that flying

business errors. -- in this flying

business is.

This is as on the glide path. Not

the kind that James Brokenshire says

that he is on, this is an error bars

simulator. We are on autopilot,

which is on the like Northern

Ireland, some people would say, has

been on for the past seven months.

We go to try and bring this thing

down safely at the International

Airport.

Back on terra firma, this is the

community hub. It is on the site of

a former security based in north

Belfast. A symbol of what Northern

Ireland could look like almost 20

years after the Belfast agreement.

One part of the building, young

people out of boxing. Next door new

research into the error APPLAUSE

Many peace walls is discussed.

These are trying times 40 minute

he's looking to store marked as an

example of how people can get along.

If you have direct rule, that is not

necessarily good to set out a

positive message to people in these

communities, because it be feel that

politicians cannot work together,

how are we supposed to try and get

people on the ground to work

together?

When peace was established

in this part of this today, there

was no Assembly in storm to 2007,

regardless of what happens, James

Brokenshire needs to make sure that

resources are in the amenities and

that is what yet include any budget.

On the Stormont glide path, who else

is waiting for schools, for a start.

Politics is the art of the possible.

The result is a way forward. To not

find a way forward is simply a lack

of imagination. Are you telling me

James Brokenshire has a lack of

imagination? There was always a

solution. There has been solutions

in March was times in Northern

Ireland, so I think there is a

solution. At the beginning he

impressed me because he was saying

the right things, but at the minute

I don't think he is interested, I

think the issues are so huge in the

UK, particularly with Brexit being a

bit on their agenda, but I don't

think Northern Ireland particularly

is a vote winner for him.

Then it

was the health service.

The body at

every step down, they were talking

about and outcomes -based

Government, and I think that part of

it is as important as it has ever

been. We need outcomes, and every

cannot deliver that in Northern

Ireland, which would be my

preference, we need it has ever

been. We need outcomes, and every

cannot deliver that in Northern

Ireland, which would be my

preference, we get delivered

somehow. I some other route.

Direct

rule?

If that is what has to be.

Nothing hates uncertainty like

business.

I came back 20 years ago

after being away ten years working

in the UK, and also in Australia and

New Zealand. I came back to what was

a very positive kind of change for

Northern Ireland, so it is this

trading and I would hate to think we

would go into next year, 2018, 20

years down the line with direct rule

again. It is ten years as we have

had direct rule, and again that was

under a Labour Party. What would

that look like under the

Conservatives? Rose unless there is

a deal, it looks like fasting your

seat belts time is not far away. If

you follow my glide path analogy,

setting a budget is a significant

step along that glide path. In doing

that, I would argue that the landing

gear starts to come down on the

likes of the -- lights of the runway

which started become clear in the

hinterland ahead.

Unless of course

the landing looks something like

this.

Gareth Gordon at Alphatech

in Newtownards.

With me now to imagine

where we might be heading

are our regular commentators

Newton Emerson and Deirdre Heenan

who've been joined tonight

by the columnist Brian Feeney

and the lawyer Trevor Ringland,

who campaigns for reconciliation.

Thanks for joining us.

Gerry Adams has said tonight that

Sinn Fein wants a deal to restore

devolution at Stormont?

Do you think he'll be relaxed,

though, if that doesn't happen?

I don't think he will be relaxed,

Sinn Fein certainly do what a deal.

But one of the things that we need

to consider is they are part of a

national all Ireland party. There is

enormous rivalry between the parties

in the Republic. One of the things

Adams was saying in his speech

tonight was appealing to...

Taoiseach to get involved, and not

to be competing in southern politics

with Fianna Fail. Adams and Sinn

Fein would like a deal. It would

obviously be won on their terms.

You've been writing for months,

though, that the Sinn Fein

grassroots is falling out of love

with sharing power with the DUP.

They fell out of love. The crucial

meeting was on the 7th of January

this year, there was a meeting in

west Belfast where all the senior

figures in the republican movement

where present. They were all

reporting what had happened over

Christmas, the complaints they had

gotten from supporters, and the

recurrent theme was, what are you

doing up there as storm at? They had

got nothing in ten years. Finally,

at a private meeting, after the

press excluded, one of the people

shouted up, and bring the

institutions down now legs and there

was a huge cheer. The strong feeling

was that being a bad storm and had

met years of frustration, because

the DUP had blocked all change and

had reneged on a series of promises

that they had given in 2006.

Read is

that Levi's?

In a situation where I

think people are disillusioned with

the Government we had even before

the 7th of January last year. They

have become even more disillusioned

with the opportunity for Government

we might have in the future. It put

a challenge out of the politicians

to actually try and get a Government

re-established and if they do

re-establish it, it is axing one

that delivers for all the people,

and it is their sense of the

politicians acting in their own

partyed self-interest rather than

looking at the wider interests of

the people, changing that sense of

what we do a sort of community basis

to one of separate amenities to one

of a weird that includes all

committees. It would be a travesty

if after we had been through as a

society that one side would turn

their back on essentially

power-sharing. And that we are

driven by the politics that keeps

the club in west Belfast happy. We

all have to give quite a bit and we

should not waste menace goodwill. It

has been given to our politics to

move this forward.

Others clearly

think it has collapsed. It is a

shame that that has happened.

Politicians are not doing what they

were elected to do. The reality is

that Sinn Fein and the DUP a

thumping -- it thumping great votes

twice this year and are doing what

the people who voted for them to do.

To sum up, ever to be small number

of people are involved in a long

wall, and the vast majority are

involved in a long piece. There is a

polarised politics for a people who

are not polarised and are actually

coming together out on the streets,

and the challenge of the future is

the people are going people around

the politics or the politicians go

to the polarised the people. We have

arrived at this position by

political manipulation of the

designation of first ministers. It

created this, if you do not vote for

us, you will get them, which created

a battle between the two large

parties. This has been orchestrated

with the help of the Government, and

we are in a scenario where as on the

original agreement, departed the not

delivering, they would be kicked out

on a large party would become the

small party in the designations, to

a situation now where we do not have

that same democratic ability to kick

those parties out.

You are shaking

your head.

It flies in the face of

the facts. The people are polarised.

Who do you think those for the

parties? As Mark said, there are two

elections this year, the second one

more voters came out to reinforce

what they had done in the Assembly

elections. Sinn Fein got a higher

percentage share of the vote in the

June election than they got in the

March election.

RB now getting what

we voted for? Are we as voters and

citizens being let down by our

politicians?

Revolution hair has

never been plain sailing, and I

think we should recognise that. --

devolution. We have stumbled from

one crisis to another, Luke Garrett

head lies about the best, we have

never had a stable Government, a

Government that is looking at the

bread-and-butter policies of health

and education. Your package was very

interesting because in the past four

weeks we have had a notable increase

in stories about health waiting

lists. People are concerned about

the services and impact.

They are

not concerned enough to the

politicians get back into the

executive room. We know about these

problems. But the pressure has not

built up to the point where

politicians feel they need to shift

in their positions. Grigg I agree

anyone sense, but today the older

person's As many as are of the

opinion, say "aye". To the contrary,

"no"., Grigg there was very little

support from what is going on in

Northern Ireland that the minute.

Due to concerns about cuts to health

care. Putting whereon social care

there is huge frustration on the

ground, it may be difficult to find

a voice for that and it falls on

deaf ears which is also very

important.

Memories here are very

short. Any March election, the

biggest game by far was by Alliance,

presumed to be mostly from knobbly

nonvoting unionists. If you remember

back to that election, it was all

about RHI and it was a groundswell

of public opinion and vote against

what was seen as the fault of the

scheme. It is only when they came

within a whisker of each other in

the election that unionist became

spooked back into the mainstream,

and that is what has happened with

the Sinn Fein throwing the dice as

well. Both those parties now need to

roll back from that other they have

a base that they have wound up I

need to wind down. But they are

clearly trying to do a deal.

When?

Glove 2-party contest sees coming up

to November, they have to get to

that.

I think that takes the

pressure off them. I was still a

spending to do a deal after that.

Storm and will probably come back in

stages, for Sinn Fein they need

proof that a deal will be

implemented. They are saying again

about implementation, that is what

is key. They will have to agree and

act and having drafted and passed,

put the SNP are before they can get

the executive back. That will pacify

the concerns of their base.

People

are exasperated and that is why they

are calling for direct rule and

saying, let's is go to direct rule,

but we have to remember, giving the

expense of the past, direct rule is

a temporary operation.

We don't know

what kind it will be.

We will never

get transformation under direct

rule. There will come from

Staffordshire and say, let's review

the national health service. -- no

one will come. What we as leaders

and what is a sticking plaster

solution. If we go to the local

Assembly, we wanted to deliver and

be what some clarification on what

it can deliver.

No they don't.

People know what the issues are and

they are at the present moment a

culture war. Until that is resolved

between Sinn Fein and the DUP, there

will not be a return to the

executive.

They will need dates and

implementation. Once they have that

they will be prepared to go back.

Those other issues. The fact

they will be prepared to go back.

Those other issues. The fact is the

waiting lists for the NHS did start

in March. That has been a problem

for years, the same with education.

The issues that have to be resolved

are between the representatives of

the two communities. It is just the

same...

They do not represent me and

they do not represent an increasing

amount of people in the community.

There is the political world and the

rest of the world. We live in a

beautiful place, the people are

great. Last summer, we had the kids

from across the interface is playing

together in sport. North, South,

East and West Belfast coming

together. Their parents supporting

them. We need constructive

leadership coming from the political

world.

Their steel piano Ulster

Unionist Party election, people said

no thanks, we will vote for Sinn

Fein and the DUP.

A failure of the

middle ground to create a coming

together which creates an option.

They failed in that and they need to

recognise that but they were also

undermined by the government. I can

assure you, the day the prisoners

were released without

decommissioning was when things were

undermined.

You cannot put the clock

back.

We have to deal with where we

are now and our society is better

than it was in the past and we have

to instead of talking about problems

get solutions.

But who will be

running things?

When we moved to

joint first ministers. There are

certain things you could do which

make some fundamental changes and

then once you do that then have an

election, give it back to the people

and do it democratically. As things

are it is undemocratic.

I wonder if

people have an appetite for yet

another election. We will come back

and talk later in the programme.

We'll hear more from you later.

But, of course, Brexit is the other

big story of the week.

Writing in the Belfast Telegraph

yesterday, the DUP MP Ian Paisley

added his voice to those urging

the Republic of Ireland to consider

exiting the EU along with the UK.

He joins me from London

and in our Dublin studio

is the Fianna Fail spokesman

on Foreign Affairs, Darragh O'Bryan.

Ian Paisley, as the negotiations

stutter on, the prospect of a hard

Brexit seems to be gaining momentum.

Are you relaxed at that possibility?

You can characterise it as hard,

soft or whatever. The fact of the

matter the United Kingdom of great

Britain and Northern Ireland are

leaving the EU. What is in my

interests and interests of the

people of Northern Ireland and the

UK is that we get the best deal

possible.

Your party... If it is

hard Brexit on the table, will you

vote for?

The vote was cast over a

year ago. The bottom line is we are

leaving the EU and we want to make

sure we get the best deal for the UK

and Northern Ireland and also make

sure that our neighbour to the

south, the Republic of Ireland, is

well served. We don't want to see

them punished but it would be

beneficial for all of us, given so

much of the Republic of Ireland

traders reliant on non-EU 26 nation,

they could take their option we are

doing, leaving the EU, they don't

want to do that clearly, and the

other option is that the could and

should seek is that they have a

special relationship with the EU,

and become the linchpin in the

relationship between the 226 and the

UK whenever we leave. -- the EU 26.

That would facilitate the Republic

of Island not only staying where

they are in relation to the trade

with the UK but also... A report

came out today from the EU which

said clearly that the Republic of

Ireland don't have that type of

religion shipped and they will lose

9% of their trading based, around

3.4% of their GDP. That is huge.

Instead of shouting at the border

and sing the border is the problem,

let's get on with actually making

sure that they benefit from us

leaving the EU also.

You have set

out yourself very well and also in

the Belfast Telegraph yesterday.

Let's hear from Fianna Fail. Does

that appeal to you?

No. We are not

leaving the EU. We know there is no

question of that happening. 86% of

our trade is done with the EU 27 and

we are on that side of the table. We

want to see a good arrangement and a

deal done between the EU and the UK

that is beneficial to both but the

reality is that the people of

Northern Ireland voted to remain, so

Northern Ireland is being dragged

out of EU by the rest of Britain and

that in itself is against the will

of most of the people of Northern

Ireland. Our future and the Republic

of Ireland's future is with the

European Union and it has been a

positive thing for the Republic of

Ireland and Northern Ireland as well

and I think any idea of us leaving

the European Union is a nonstarter.

Any talk of us being a linchpin

between a new relationship between

the EU and the UK, I don't see that

either. We have a special

relationship with the North which is

Carter fastened by the Good Friday

Agreement. Our future is with

Europe. We need to see the

Westminster government getting their

act together and figuring out what

they actually want. We are coming to

a crucial phase of negotiations now

to see whether the EU will agree

with the UK that we can go to the

next phase of future relations and

this brave new world that Ian

Paisley talks about, let's look at

trade, how will Britain replace some

of the trade lost by leaving the EU?

I hope cooler heads will prevail. I

hope the people can see that even

the customs union is an option for

Britain to remain within that.

I

think the people who want to leave,

and Ian Paisley is one of them, have

made it clear that is not an option.

The point has been made that you

have leverage with the British

government in the DUP. Can you

switch here is that all of the

traffic from negotiation and

compromise isn't going to be coming

from his side of the border?

I think

this is important from the point of

view of trading with UK companies...

It is important that we get a good

relation.

A much smaller scale than

you mentioned in the Belfast

Telegraph. You said 60%, it is

nothing like that.

Let me make this

point first. Michel Barnier is the

plenipotentiary for the remaining EU

26. He has to make sure that he gets

a very good deal and at least leaves

the Republic of Ireland in the same

standing and status that they

currently have. Under the

arrangements at the present time

this has not come to be the case and

Michel Barnier whether he feels the

UK or not he will end up failing the

Republic of Ireland.

60% of the

Republic's goods and services traded

with the UK, you said. John

Fitzgerald, one of Ireland's must

respected economists said that as

fake news. 15% in 2016 of the

Republic's exports went to the UK

and 11% came from the UK, imports.

The fact is that 75% of the Republic

of Ireland's goods and services are

traded with countries out with EU

26, mainly the United States and the

United Kingdom.

That is not at all

in line with what was said a minute

ago.

This is the evidence. The

Republic sends 61% by virtue of its

goods and exports and 66% of its

services exports to countries

outside...

Who said it?

This

evidence has been presented...

Hubei? You're quoting something and

not sourcing it.

Trinity University.

The British market is important for

Ireland. The Irish market is

important for Britain. Britain is a

significant market. No one disputes

the fact it is important. But it is

not important enough for the

Republic to follow the UK leaving

the EU.

I understand this. Further

Republic of Ireland, being in the EU

has been a blessing but from 2014

you have become a net contributor to

the EU. That means that all of the

bonanza days are over. That is why

you need to adjust your position.

You are continually misrepresenting

the facts. The reality is the

European Union is not just an

economic union as well. It is what

it has managed to do after two

Savage Robert Waters, kept peace in

our continent. It has underwritten

the peace in our island as well.

Irishman and Irish women and British

men and British women have done

that.

The problem is this. Ian's

facts and figures are wrong. Nobody

is suggesting we want a bad deal for

anyone. I have spoken with Michel

Barnier and others and Ireland is

central to this. The government in

the Republic of Ireland and the

parliament and the Republic of

Ireland is representing the people's

views, unlike Ian Paisley and his

colleagues in the Assembly where

there is no executive. The voice of

the Irish people is not being heard.

Anita Askey about the talks process.

One sentence each. Your colleague

some treated that it looks like Sinn

Fein has opted for direct rule thus

depriving the people of Northern

Ireland devolved government.

I

listen to the commentary by your

commentators and I despair. Everyone

wants to see Northern Ireland men

and women running the affairs of

Northern Ireland but it does appear

that Sinn Fein are not up to doing a

deal that is realistic with the DUP.

That is not what Gerry Adams said

tonight. So no deal. You don't think

a rabbit can be pulled out a bat in

the next 48 or 72 hours.

I don't

even know if there is a hat.

What

should be the role of the Irish

government in whatever comes next?

If it happens it would be a crying

shame and a disgrace because of Sinn

Fein and the DUP have large mandates

and they have a responsibility to

the people in the north to do a deal

and the people in the north,

frankly... I lick on bewildered. If

you are elected then you are there

to govern and tried to pass laws and

mandate country for the betterment

of the people. They have abdicated

that responsibility. Direct rule

will not be a good thing for the

North of Ireland. It is not

something that Fianna Fail want to

see and I hope that both parties

will re-engage in a serious way to

ensure the executive and assembly is

re-established.

Ian Paisley, just before

I let you go, we know

you referred yourself

to the Parliamentary Commissioner

for Standards in Westminster

in connection with a claim that

you and your family made

two trips to Sri Lanka

without properly declaring them.

This is the first opportunity we've

had to speak to you about the issue.

Have you been interviewed

by the Commissioner as yet?

The inquiry is underway and that is

all I will tell you and all I can

say.

You won't confirm whether you

have spoken to the omission?

It is

in their hands and I...

Are you maintaining your position

that these allegations

are "devoid of fact or logic"?

The issue is in front of the

Commissioner and I will give them

their space to do their job, not the

BBC to do their job for them.

Thanks to you both.

Back to my studio guests.

What do you make about the issue,

the agreement to disagree on just

about everything as far as Brexit is

concerned?

Years outside his party's

leadership circle. He is having a

bit of a wind-up. He has revealed

what should be his party's policy on

Brexit which is not that the

Republic between the EU and the UK.

The trade flows would be

extraordinary and we could have

enormous benefits, but he is not

thinking in those terms. He is not

thinking seriously about this at all

but he is trying to keep the South

off-balance. There was also little

hint of menace, I think. Saying we

can do a lot of damage in the UK to

Ireland as well. He should note that

is not a signal coming from anyone

else in the UK at all.

To

you are source of his evidence

and he said Trinity University. That

is not a source. How can that be a

source? Who publish this information

and where was it published? Who

verified it? It is important.

Presumably we will find out.

Anti-EU

rhetoric was not challenge, not

robustly, and lies became fact and

fake news. We have to challenge the

rhetoric. I think he is simply

mischiefmaking, talk of the Republic

of Ireland are leaving the view is

nonsense. He knows that. The EU has

been beneficial to the Republic of

Ireland, much of the non-EU

investment is because of unfettered

access to markets so I think he was

quite clearly dismissed and he is

trying to make mischief.

He speaks

for a lot of people. That is the

problem. The Belinda 's big fight a

lot of people. Last Assembly

election and last whispered that

election.

Ian Paisley does not speak

for them. He is not part of the

negotiations. Not between the

Conservatives and the DUP. He is out

of the leadership circle.

He may be

slightly out of step with the

leadership, but the broad thrust of

what he says I would have thought he

is in line with that.

There is no

one else in the DUP saying we should

leave Europe. -- the Republic of

Ireland should leave Europe. It is

not the kind of stuff Ian Paisley is

coming out with. He looks through

the wrong end of the telescope.

Don't think he is the only person in

a DUP to raise it. He is not the

only one politically to have said

it. Ray Bassett in the south also

was made the case for it.

We are

trying to deal with a difficult

situation, and I think there is an

element of winding up, I think maybe

we should look at a slightly

different way, we're not leaving the

U. We are going to change the

relationship with the EU and there

is £242 billion worth of trade

between the UK and the EU. That is

not be sniffed at and it has be

carefully managed so it continues. I

think also those of us who share

there is Ireland...

The British

Government doesn't know how we're

going to do it.

I don't think

anybody does. The other thing is

that we have to make sure that we

all do well, and we may have voted

to Remain in the EU, but we did not

vote to leave the United Kingdom. He

should watch is language. Green a

final word.

Ian Paisleyed interest,

or the question is, by and the

Government said on 50 reports? By do

they not publish the evidence and C

what it says.

We have covered a lot

of ground, but I don't know if we

have answered any of the questions.

Thank you for your company.

That's it from The View

for this week.

Join me for Sunday Politics

at 11.35 here on BBC One.

For now, though, today's real

paw-litical battle was on the green

lawn outside the Houses

of Parliament and not

the green benches inside,

in a bid to be crowned top

dog at Westminster.

Com is no competition in deciding

who The View's top dog is.

Bye-bye.

I feel like I have won the Miss

world something. -- Miss world or

something.

Good girl, come and get

the treat. Do not what a biscuit?