01/03/2018 The View


01/03/2018

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Another political week dominated

by Brexit and the potential

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consequences for the Irish border.

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So is there any way of bridging

the gap between Brussels

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and Downing Street?

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And where does all of that leave us?

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Welcome to The View.

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Tonight...

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The Brussels plan for Ireland, North

and South, may never materialise -

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but while it's the only show

in town, it's causing

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rows all over the place.

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I think some of the wilder claims

made by some people need to be

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reeled in. We need to get on with

the practical job of negotiating a

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trade deal between the UK and the

rest of the EU.

There has to be a

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solution that comes forward, and

there is nothing coming forward as

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far as I can see from the Unionists.

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Nigel Dodds and Emily Thornberry set

out their stalls and the DUP's

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deputy leader tells me "mistrust

and bad blood" make

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a return to devolution

unlikely in the short-term.

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And while Theresa May made it clear

she's opposed to a border

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in the middle of the Irish Sea,

what are the chances

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of building a bridge across it?

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I would hope that we would certainly

have the capability and the talent,

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the engineering and architectural

talent in both countries to do it.

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I would certainly hope

that we would have a building built,

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a bridge built by 2025.

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And dusting off their snow shoes -

tonight's commentators

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are Allison Morris and Sam McBride.

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"Time to come up with a better

idea" - the advice of

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the European Council President,

Donald Tusk, to Theresa May

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as the fall-out continues

after yesterday's publication

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of the EU's draft withdrawal treaty.

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The document runs to 120 pages -

but it's the proposals around

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the future of the border

here which have caused the uproar.

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I'll be getting two very different

political perspectives

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First from Emily Thornberry. First,

her thoughts on the draft EU treaty.

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Northern Ireland as part of the UK

and whatever agreement we have has

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to retain the integrity of Northern

Ireland as part of the UK, but we

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have to have a soft border between

the north than the South. That's

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what's important. The British

government agreed to that before

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Christmas. They said they would find

a way that we would have a soft

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border. They signed up to that. They

have since said we would be in the

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single market or the customs union

but they've not come forward with

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any other alternative proposals. So

the EU said, well, you agreed to a

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soft border. You haven't come up

with anything. All we've got is

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single market and customs union,

what have you got? You've got no

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proposals at all. So if you don't

want to have a border between North

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and South, are you talking about it

being in the middle of the sea?

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Obviously there is no way we would

agree to that. Of course we

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wouldn't. But the solution is in

front of their faces. We have to be

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in a customs union. We have been

thinking about this in the Labour

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Party long and hard for 21 months,

since the referendum. As far as we

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are concerned, there is no other

solution. There's no other solution

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in terms of looking after the

economy, in terms of maintaining

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jobs, and we have to be thinking

about that first and foremost and

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then also about peace Ireland.

The

Prime Minister dismissed any idea of

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the UK remaining in a customs union

with the EU, in equally strident

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terms to her dismissal of today's EU

proposals.

Well, she's wrong.

She's

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the Prime Minister.

She's still

wrong, and I didn't think the

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majority of the House of Commons

agrees with her. I think that she is

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being reckless. She being reckless,

she's playing with peace. She's

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playing with the Constitution of the

country. She's cutting off her nose

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to spite her face, she has to change

her mind.

How is she playing with

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peace?

Because the balance in

Ireland has been long negotiated.

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3000 people lost their lives. We

negotiated a balance between the

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Irish government and British

government, guarantees of a soft

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border, guarantees of peace, of a

future, etc. It is there and finely

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balanced. If they start behaving in

a way that will result in a hard

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border between Northern Ireland and

the rest of Ireland, that threatens

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peace. You know it does.

Who is

threatening to go back to war? It

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certainly upsets the balance of what

was agreed in the Good Friday

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Agreement, but it doesn't unlock the

door for people to go back to

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violence, does it?

What it does is

it ranks up the pressure and the

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tension. If we start having a hard

border then I think that's what it

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does, and the piece is so finely

balanced in Ireland, nobody can be

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complacent about this. The Good

Friday Agreement has held up across

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the world. I met the president of

Columbia and they said how much they

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had learned from the Good Friday

Agreement. It is an example of good

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practice. They are being so arrogant

in the way in which just because of

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their dogma, they are prepared to

risk it. You shouldn't be risking

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it.

Sammy Wilson accused the Labour

leadership of having supported Sinn

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Fein, which he alleges conducted a

campaign of genocide along the

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border. He argued IRA violence and

necessitated a hard border during

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the troubles. He said it is more

about under minding the EU

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referendum result than anything

else. Does he have a point?

I can't

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tell you how insulted I am by that.

I'm really insulted. I have Irish

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heritage too. I want a good future

for Northern Ireland within the UK.

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That's what I want, because that's

what the Northern Irish people want.

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But we have to find a peaceful way

forward which means we have to be

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pragmatic. What I would say to

Unionists in Northern Ireland is

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it's all very well for you to say

there mustn't be a border between

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Northern Ireland and the rest of the

UK, there mustn't be a border

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between Northern Ireland and the

rest of Ireland, and yet the UK can

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diverged, and yet the UK can develop

an economy in a different way to the

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rest of the EU, but there isn't

going to be a border. Nobody seems

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to be challenging them about the

illogicality of that. There has to

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be a solution and there is nothing

that is coming forward from the

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Unionists on this.

The Prime

Minister said today in the House of

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Commons there will be no hard border

between Northern Ireland and the

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Republic, no hard border between

Northern Ireland and Great Britain

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and no customs union between the UK

and EU.

It just doesn't work. What

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their alternative? Is it something

to do with unicorns? We've heard

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nothing and neither has the European

Union.

Theresa May is making a

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speech...

Lets sit here with open

ears. We've had so many speeches, so

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many papers but we've not had any

alternative. At some stage somebody

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is going to need to be grown-up

about this and face the facts.

Will

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we inevitably end up, if the UK

Government cannot produce an

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acceptable alternative, that we will

end up with the option C which is

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this common regulatory area for

Northern Ireland in the future. The

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Unionists don't like it but you'd

think that is what will happen?

What

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has happened is that in order to get

through Christmas, Theresa May

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signed a piece of paper, and on that

she said no hard border. She put

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forward a number of alternatives.

Two of them were extremely foggy,

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she hasn't fleshed them out with any

detail, and the third one is that

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eventually we stay in the EU in all

but words, we stay in the single

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market. All of the UK, not just

Northern Ireland, all of the UK

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stays in the single market and a

customs union. They don't want that,

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and I understand why they don't want

that, but they have to compromise.

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We are saying we must leave the EU

because that's what the referendum

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bill that, despite what the people

of Northern Ireland wanted which was

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to stay, but nevertheless we have to

find a way forward that keeps our

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country unified. That means keeping

Northern Ireland as part of the UK,

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that means pulling together the 48%

and the 52%. Which means we leave

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the EU but we don't have to go very

far, which means we can keep a soft

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border.

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We had a bit of a technical problem

in that interview with Emily

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Thornberry. That was the Shadow

Foreign Secretary talking to meet at

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her office in Westminster yesterday

afternoon. Not surprisingly, Nigel

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Dodds sees things differently. He

said he was amazed the EU could

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think the EU proposals would ever be

acceptable to his party. When I met

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up with him yesterday I suggested to

him that the EU proposals are only

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the legal version of what was

previously agreed to buy Theresa May

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in Brussels last December.

They are

not because they leave out the

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Article 50 stuff about guaranteeing

unfettered access for Northern

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Ireland. It takes the whole

interpretation of regulatory

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alignment much further across

greater areas than was imagined, and

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it doesn't deal in any regard with

options a and B because it is purely

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with the C. It doesn't reflect what

was agreed in December, and the

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Prime Minister made that very clear

in her excellent remarks at Prime

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Minister's Questions in which she

said no British Prime Minister could

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possibly accept such a paper.

Options A and B are the

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responsibility of the UK Government

and Michel Barnier said today we are

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happy to see them, but there doesn't

seem to be any great urgency to

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produce any.

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They would be better waiting

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They would be better waiting until

Friday, it is their decision to go

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ahead today and they are the ones

the EU has structured the

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negotiations to be getting to the

progress report and having that the

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month it was elation on transition

arrangements and then trade talks

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and in our view and the British

government's you is what should have

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happened as everything was on the

table from the first day, start

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negotiating the most important part,

the trade deal, option A, so it is

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rich for the EU to criticise people

when they are the ones who insisted

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on this structure.

When it comes to

Friday's much anticipated speech by

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the Prime Minister, do you think she

will clear up a lot of the confusion

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that seems to be around today?

She

will set out the UK's negotiating

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position in terms of the overall

trade deal, she will reiterate the

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commitment to the agreement in

December and she will also reiterate

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what she said in terms of the

Commons at Prime Minister 's

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questions, which is that no British

prime ministers could possibly

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accede to anything that would break

up the Common Market and the UK, the

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single market, no customs border

down the Irish Sea. And no British

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Prime Minister would accede to the

EU draft text, which would break up

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the UK constitutionally.

I think

that will be very welcome. Michel

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Barnier has made it clear he has no

intention of that, he does not want

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to get involved in the internal

politics of the UK anti-respects

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because additional integrity of the

UK. He said that very clearly today

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without any ambiguity.

I welcome

what he says but as we have always

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proved, the proof is in the text and

especially the legal text and what

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that spells out, it does not refer

at all to the important links

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between Northern Ireland and the UK,

it does not reflect that and it

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paints a scenario whereby there

would be this common regulatory

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space weather Union of which

Northern Ireland would be part,

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regardless of the rest of the UK,

and that would politically cut us

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from the rest of the UK, which as

Theresa May has said, no British

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prime ministers will accept. Would

it really do that? Of course, what

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we would have ears, 75% of our sales

out of Northern Ireland goes to the

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UK market or the rest of the world,

what they would be doing is creating

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this incredible regulatory barrier,

customs barrier, between Northern

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Ireland and the rest of the UK,

where most of the sales go. It would

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be economic catastrophe for

businesses, communities in Northern

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Ireland, deeply damaging to everyone

and that is one reason why I believe

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puzzled at the attitude of the Irish

government because it is not in

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their interests to create barriers

between Ireland and Great Britain

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because most of their trade goes

into Great Britain yet they pursue

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this policy. It seems for purely

political reasons. When all of us

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and certainly they should be

concentrating on trying to get a

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trade deal which would ensure that

business continues between Northern

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Ireland, the Irish Republic and the

rest of the EU. That is where the

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focus should be.

Michel Barnier said

that if Northern Ireland ends up as

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a common regulatory area, it would

not be a hard border, that would

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exist between Northern Ireland and

the rest of the UK. It would be a

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series of checks at ports and

airports, he said that it's a lot

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easier than to police it, at 310

mile long land border. A hard border

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between Northern Ireland and the

republic.

They are not the same.

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Even he is admitting that there

would be barriers and the EU

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position and others who say they do

not want any hard border is there

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can be no infrastructure along the

border and we agree with that. We

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think it can be done without any of

that. As a government put forward in

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the August paper. What concerns us

is this approach by the EU and

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others who support it, it falls

under the glaring weight of its own

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inconsistencies. They told us they

don't want a border between Northern

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Ireland and the Irish Republic but

this would have the effect of

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creating, even with regulatory

checks, infrastructure and barriers,

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never mind the regulatory changes

which would be a barrier to trade.

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And people are using the Belfast

agreement, the need to have a

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frictionless border, even the piece,

and I have said this in the Commons,

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using this in quite disgraceful and

reckless way in to project their own

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version of Brexit or even to thwart

Brexit. Who is going to go back to

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violence? Who is suggesting there

should be a hard border? Nobody. Who

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is suggesting that we should abandon

good cross-border trade? Nobody.

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Some of the wilder claims made by

some people need to be reined in and

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we should get on with the practical

job of negotiating an overall trade

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deal between the UK and the rest of

the EU.

Let us look at what the

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Prime Minister said, you welcomed

the commitments. No hard border

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between Northern Ireland and the

Republic. No hard border between

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Northern Ireland and Great Britain.

No Customs Union between the UK and

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EU you welcome that. Those three

things cannot all be true, you

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cannot deliver on those three

commitments at the same time.

They

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are contradictory. They are not. If

you were the government paper, and

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lots of people are talking about the

border, I will not include you, but

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a lot of people on this side of the

water talk about this and they have

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never been to Northern Ireland, they

never read the paper in August and

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they have not talked, as I have, in

Stockholm, to the person who drafted

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the report for the parliament,

saying this can be done. You can

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have frictionless trade north and

south, frictionless trade East and

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West, and you can have a customs

arrangement, which is what the Prime

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Minister has talked about, our

partnership without being part of

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the Customs Union. The trouble with

being part of the Customs Union is

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you end up having to accept whatever

deals the EU does in its interests

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without any say as the UK and

whether it is in your interests or

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not. It would be a mad situation. We

need to be free to negotiate our own

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arrangements that sensible

convergence in areas where it makes

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sense.

What do you say to those

representatives of the agriculture

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and food sector and business

sectors, North and south and here in

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Great Britain as well, who have

serious reservations about the UK

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and Northern Ireland leaving the

Customs Union and the single market?

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Most people in the farming community

voted for Brexit and still hold to

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that position. There are sectors of

agriculture who have told us that

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actually, if we ended up with a hard

Brexit, nobody wants that, but they

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would replace goods coming in at the

moment so they would probably

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thrive. Other sectors could see

damage done and we have been

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speaking to Michael Gove about

managing that but nobody wants to

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get to a hard Brexit.

One final

question about the talks. To what

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extent do you think you are

optimistic that the Stormont talks

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process can be up and running again

any time soon?

In the short-term we

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are badly in need of some

decision-making in Northern Ireland,

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you hear that from the civil

service, budgets need to be set and

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decisions taken in the interests of

everybody. Whoever. That needs to

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happen. Without prejudice to train

to get devolution back and a role

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for the Assembly if necessary for

that local input. Do I see

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devolution in the short-term? No.

There is a lot of this -- mistrust

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and bad blood. A lot of things that

Sinn Fein have done which has

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concerned and angered people in the

unionist community. And I think

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there isn't a balanced package on

offer so I think we do need to get

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back to devolution but if you ask me

will it happen in the short term, I

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don't think it is but that is

without prejudice to making it

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happen in the medium and long term.

The website that published the draft

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text and in a subsequent article in

question was posed... The first

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opportunity to ask this question...

Did Arlene Foster personally hand a

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hard copy of that 13 page iteration

of the draft agreement to Michelle

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O'Neill at 6:30pm on Friday the 9th

of February?

That is news to me. I

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will not get into answering

questions of that nature but I think

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that is news to me.

I have no

knowledge of that. That has been in

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the public domain for some time.

I

don't think that is right. Might

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that we the case? We can speculate.

You are getting into the territory

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of speculation upon speculation. I

am not going to get into that. Our

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party has acted perfectly correctly

in how it has handled all of this

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and we have taken a decision. Which

is that in the meantime, until we

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get devolution running on a fair

way, decisions have to be taken at

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Westminster and we need to do the

budget and get on and have

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government decisions made.

That is

what everybody needs. You don't know

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if she handed the document?

If she

did... If I had any knowledge... I

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would be highly surprised, that is

speculation upon speculation, like

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me speculating on what you did on

Tuesday. I have no knowledge. I

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cannot...

I cannot comment. If she

did hand that document over, it

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would suggest she had some ownership

of it and that document clearly

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suggests signing at Irish Language

Act...

Can we stop being silly about

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all of this. Stop this nonsense. The

reality is... Arlene Foster and

0:21:440:21:52

nobody in the DUP put forward for

any kind of agreement the Irish

0:21:520:21:58

language suggestions in any text

because it was not agreed by her, by

0:21:580:22:03

the party or anything else. That is

the bottom line.

0:22:030:22:06

Nigel Dodds talking to me

at Westminster yesterday.

0:22:060:22:08

Now, while some politicians have

been quick to knock back any

0:22:080:22:11

prospect of a post-Brexit border

in the Irish Sea,

0:22:110:22:13

what about the argument

for building a bridge across it?

0:22:130:22:16

The Scottish Government has told

this programme it's ready to begin

0:22:160:22:18

discussions with officials here,

and in Dublin, about the possibility

0:22:180:22:21

of making it happen.

0:22:210:22:23

The DUP and the SNP say the idea

of a fixed link should be explored -

0:22:230:22:27

but not everyone's convinced,

as Stephen Walker's

0:22:270:22:28

been finding out.

0:22:280:22:35

It is a short ferry crossing

to Scotland and if there

0:22:410:22:45

was a bridge it would be

an even shorter drive.

0:22:450:22:49

The suggestion of a link

between Northern Ireland

0:22:490:22:52

and the West of Scotland is not new,

but the idea is now gaining interest

0:22:520:22:56

on both sides of the water.

0:22:560:22:58

In a post-Brexit world,

would it help to bring economies

0:22:580:23:02

together and could it boost

trade and tourism?

0:23:020:23:05

Or is this an expensive folly

we simply cannot afford?

0:23:050:23:10

The idea of connecting

with our Scottish neighbours has

0:23:100:23:12

been around for over 130 years.

0:23:120:23:17

These plans from the 1800s

show tunnels stretching

0:23:170:23:20

from Counties Down and Antrim

to the West of Scotland.

0:23:200:23:23

The idea for a bridge

or a tunnel was contained

0:23:230:23:27

in the 2015 DUP manifesto.

0:23:270:23:30

So where could a bridge be built?

0:23:300:23:33

The shortest crossing

point is 12 miles from

0:23:330:23:36

the coast of County Antrim.

0:23:360:23:39

The best route seems to be

from the Mull of Kintyre

0:23:390:23:41

to the Antrim coast.

0:23:410:23:43

The difficulty with that in the past

has been getting from the Mull

0:23:430:23:46

of Kintyre to the Glasgow central

belt and to the central

0:23:460:23:49

belt of Scotland.

0:23:490:23:51

There are now achievable ways

of actually doing that.

0:23:510:23:54

So I think that the best route,

potentially as far as the simplest

0:23:540:23:58

connection and the least expensive

connection, would be from the Antrim

0:23:580:24:01

coast to the Mull of Kintyre.

0:24:010:24:03

A bridge stretching

from Larne to Portpatrick

0:24:030:24:06

is another possibility.

0:24:060:24:08

And there is another suggestion that

would link Bangor to Portpatrick.

0:24:080:24:12

In Dublin recently,

Scotland's Brexit Minister said

0:24:120:24:14

the idea was worth exploring.

0:24:140:24:18

I think it's a great idea.

0:24:180:24:19

It would open up my

constituency, that's the route

0:24:190:24:21

I would like to see.

0:24:210:24:23

But there's a lot of talking

to be done about that.

0:24:230:24:25

But I think it would be important

that talking starts on that.

0:24:250:24:28

Recent coverage indicates that

that's something that should happen.

0:24:280:24:31

As the local MSP I would

definitely support that.

0:24:310:24:33

Others agree this idea

needs to be explored.

0:24:330:24:38

We have got the most expensive

stretch of water for ships

0:24:380:24:41

and ferries to cross and sometimes

it is disrupted by bad

0:24:410:24:44

weather, etcetera.

0:24:440:24:46

One of the suggestions we made

was if you are going to go

0:24:460:24:49

for blue sky thinking,

huge infrastructure projects,

0:24:490:24:52

why not look at the 22 miles

between Northern Ireland

0:24:520:24:56

and Scotland and build a bridge

which would make travel less

0:24:560:24:59

expensive and probably more certain.

0:24:590:25:00

Sammy Wilson accepts that cost

could determine the feasibility.

0:25:000:25:03

To some, the construction fees

are too prohibitive.

0:25:030:25:08

Some people put a conservative

estimate at £20 billion.

0:25:080:25:11

At a time when our local

infrastructure in Northern

0:25:110:25:13

Ireland is struggling.

0:25:130:25:14

We have flagship projects

where we are struggling to get

0:25:140:25:17

the capital money to build those

and also our roads

0:25:170:25:19

and maintenance budget.

0:25:190:25:20

We simply don't have the money

to retain what we already have.

0:25:200:25:23

So to build a bridge

at this cost would be seen

0:25:230:25:26

as a vanity project by some.

0:25:260:25:28

So is this a price we

simply can't afford?

0:25:280:25:35

But the question is, will it pay

for itself over years now?

0:25:350:25:37

To have a capital investment

like that we are going

0:25:370:25:40

to create more jobs.

0:25:400:25:41

Northern Ireland could be

doing with more jobs.

0:25:410:25:43

We could upskill our workforce more

around the construction piece

0:25:430:25:45

so it is a good investment for both

Northern Ireland and Scotland.

0:25:450:25:49

If a bridge was proposed a proper

cost benefit analysis

0:25:490:25:51

would have to be carried out.

0:25:510:25:54

Something that the Scottish

Government have recognised.

0:25:540:25:57

But is there enough trade to justify

such a large investment?

0:26:260:26:33

Currently there is about 400,000

lorries would transit

0:26:330:26:35

the North Channel to Cairnryan

from Northern Ireland annually.

0:26:350:26:37

What proportion of that vehicle

traffic would use the bridge?

0:26:370:26:40

And obviously toll fees have

been included as well.

0:26:400:26:42

So would it be financially

viable to make the switch

0:26:420:26:45

from ferry to bridge?

0:26:450:26:46

To some, the bridge is more

than simply a structure.

0:26:460:26:49

The fact that you can go from Dublin

to Belfast to Glasgow to Edinburgh

0:26:490:26:53

in a number of hours and you can

jump on a train as well

0:26:530:26:56

if you have a bridge,

a suitable bridge, then

0:26:560:26:59

it is fantastic from

an infrastructure point of view

0:26:590:27:01

and also for the connectivity.

0:27:010:27:03

Building a bridge would require

consultation with local communities

0:27:030:27:06

and would raise fundamental

questions of where and how it

0:27:060:27:09

could be constructed.

0:27:090:27:11

Questions that others

across the globe have had to answer.

0:27:110:27:15

In China the world's longest sea

bridge has just been completed.

0:27:150:27:20

They built their sea bridge,

which is 34 miles long,

0:27:200:27:22

in six years from start to finish.

0:27:220:27:25

I would hope that we would certainly

have the capability and the talent,

0:27:250:27:29

the engineering and architectural

talent in both countries to do it.

0:27:290:27:32

I would certainly hope

that we would have a building built,

0:27:320:27:36

a bridge built by 2025

would certainly be within

0:27:360:27:38

the realms of possibility.

0:27:380:27:40

So a bridge for 2025

would be my catchphrase for this.

0:27:400:27:43

Vanity project or wise investment?

0:27:430:27:48

A bridge divides opinion and raises

political and economic questions.

0:27:480:27:51

Just as the original plans did

nearly 150 years ago.

0:27:510:27:59

Stephen Walker reporting.

0:27:590:28:01

Let's hear from tonight's

commentators - Sam McBride

0:28:010:28:03

from The News Letter

and Allison Morris

0:28:030:28:05

from The Irish News.

0:28:050:28:09

They've been joined by our own

political editor Mark Devonport.

0:28:090:28:14

Let's go back to Brexit which is

where we started. We heard from

0:28:140:28:19

Emily Thornberry and Nigel Dodds,

very different views on the draft

0:28:190:28:21

treaty. Now just to move things on

we've got a sense of what Theresa

0:28:210:28:26

May is going to say in her Mansion

house speech tomorrow, where does

0:28:260:28:31

that leave us?

Downing Street has

briefed some broad principles that

0:28:310:28:34

Theresa May will set out in this

speech. It gives us a sense of the

0:28:340:28:41

broad principles she will look

towards. She says any kind of plan

0:28:410:28:46

in the future must respect the

result of the referendum. That's a

0:28:460:28:50

reason why the government has ruled

out staying in the customs union and

0:28:500:28:54

the single market. They say it must

be an enduring agreement, but it

0:28:540:28:59

must protect jobs and security.

Lastly, they talk about it bringing

0:28:590:29:05

the country back together, which is

obviously in general terms trying to

0:29:050:29:10

bring remain and leave together

which is still a bit of a fond hope

0:29:100:29:14

at the moment. She also talks about

representing all of the UK in this.

0:29:140:29:20

Very broad brush staff and not the

kind of granular detail that we got

0:29:200:29:25

from the EU earlier in the week in

relation to their fallback option.

0:29:250:29:30

We heard Donald Tusk the president

of the European Council met Theresa

0:29:300:29:33

May today and said if you don't like

what's on the table at the moment

0:29:330:29:37

it's time to come up with a better

idea. You've looked at the briefing

0:29:370:29:40

as well, is the better idea in there

so far as you can see?

There's

0:29:400:29:46

nothing in this, it is a lot of

waffle about bringing people

0:29:460:29:51

together, getting an open trade deal

is possible. You can't leave the

0:29:510:29:56

customs union and then have a free

trade deal and a frictionless

0:29:560:30:00

border. There's no mention of

Northern Ireland. I knows these were

0:30:000:30:07

only briefing notes but there's no

mention of the border at all. At

0:30:070:30:11

this point we had them did missing

what was put forward as a suggestion

0:30:110:30:16

by the agreed European Union -- we

heard them dismissing but was put

0:30:160:30:23

forward.

Nigel Dodds very robust in

his defence of the view that it is

0:30:230:30:27

possible to square the circle,

leaving the customs union and not

0:30:270:30:31

having a hard border, east-west or

north-south.

He does say that is

0:30:310:30:39

possible and that is consistent with

a party that argued for Brexit and

0:30:390:30:43

for a fairly robust Brexit, making a

clean break and striking trade deals

0:30:430:30:48

and all of that sort of rhetoric

from the ardent Brexiteers. One of

0:30:480:30:52

the interesting thing is the EU did

is that it could either push the DUP

0:30:520:30:57

in one of two directions. It could

push it towards trying to keep the

0:30:570:31:00

whole UK in the customs union and

watered-down Brexit, it doesn't seem

0:31:000:31:05

to be when Nigel Dodds is going with

this. Or it could push them in a

0:31:050:31:12

very different direction, where they

say no deal is better for unionism

0:31:120:31:21

even if economically it's

problematic. That isn't something

0:31:210:31:24

the DUP is saying at this point but

if we get to the final stage of this

0:31:240:31:28

and Theresa May can't come up with

something more palatable, it's a big

0:31:280:31:32

choice for Arlene Foster and Nigel

Dodds.

Let's remind ourselves, the

0:31:320:31:38

Westminster arithmetic is critical

in this. The DUP has a clear

0:31:380:31:42

position. Nidal -- Nigel Dodds came

out firmly in support of what

0:31:420:31:49

Theresa May said yesterday. There

are people who will say at the end

0:31:490:31:54

of the day the DUP voice is

significant because the DUP tail is

0:31:540:31:58

wagging the conservative dog.

Theresa May is in hock to Arlene

0:31:580:32:02

Foster and Nigel Dodds.

Theresa May

obviously needs DUP votes to stay in

0:32:020:32:07

power but she is subject to force is

coming in different directions.

0:32:070:32:10

She's got the DUP insistent and hard

Brexiteers insistent that she can't

0:32:100:32:16

but on the customs union. But she

has the moderate remain weighing in

0:32:160:32:23

the Tory party joining together

potentially with Labour in backing

0:32:230:32:27

an amendment that would push some

kind of customs union. That leaves

0:32:270:32:32

her in a difficult position. One of

the particular conundrum is that

0:32:320:32:36

faces her if she sees the solution

being the negotiation of this

0:32:360:32:40

all-encompassing trade agreement

which is effectively going to make

0:32:400:32:43

the problems of the border go away.

The EU went discussed that until she

0:32:430:32:48

is signed up to the terms of a

transition plan. Part of the terms

0:32:480:32:53

put on the table is what we've seen

which is totally unacceptable to the

0:32:530:32:58

DUP. How does she get to this heaven

of the great trade agreement that

0:32:580:33:03

will make everything go away,

without signing up to something that

0:33:030:33:06

is unpalatable and may be impossible

for her supporters?

What about the

0:33:060:33:14

other issue I talked to Nigel Dodds

about, the possibility of getting

0:33:140:33:18

Stormont talks back up and running.

He said Mr stand-by blood makes it

0:33:180:33:22

unlikely in the short-term. I asked

the question about whether or not

0:33:220:33:26

Foster might have handed a hard copy

of the leaked document to Michelle

0:33:260:33:33

O'Neill a couple of Fridays ago.

It

has followed the pattern we've seen

0:33:330:33:37

from senior DUP members in the last

two weeks since news of this draft

0:33:370:33:42

leaked. He was comfortable speaking

about Brexit and then you saw the

0:33:420:33:45

body language change and he became

defensive when you mentioned the

0:33:450:33:50

draft deal. Whether he didn't know,

whether he wasn't sure, and that

0:33:500:33:53

would show what most people have

speculated which is that there was a

0:33:530:33:59

negotiation within the DUP.

He was

an important part of that

0:33:590:34:05

negotiating team.

We know that he

said on this programme that he had

0:34:050:34:14

constructed the draft deal. Nigel

Dodds was rattled by that. If that

0:34:140:34:18

was the case it blows out of the

water this message on the Irish

0:34:180:34:26

language act.

He was deeply

unconvincing and evasive. He had an

0:34:260:34:31

opportunity to say this is simply

nonsense, it didn't happen. It's

0:34:310:34:37

quite telling. He said I'm not aware

of it, he didn't say it didn't

0:34:370:34:41

happen.

You caught that bit at the

end as well, does it move that

0:34:410:34:47

debate on as to whether or not the

DUP was preparing to do a deal on

0:34:470:34:52

the Irish language and now says it

isn't?

The DUP commentary around

0:34:520:34:58

this has been rather unconvincing

and Nigel Dodds' performance in

0:34:580:35:02

relation to those questions was a

bit unconvincing in terms of the

0:35:020:35:06

body language. It should also be

seen in the context of publishing

0:35:060:35:11

the header of an e-mail to light

which contained the subject line

0:35:110:35:16

draft agreement text. It was an

e-mail from Simon Hamilton. One

0:35:160:35:23

remembers the DUP was saying there

was no such thing as a draft

0:35:230:35:27

agreement. There seem to be e-mails

headed "Draft agreement text" which

0:35:270:35:33

again causes you to ask questions

about what was going on.

No sign of

0:35:330:35:38

devolution any time soon?

It doesn't

appear Nigel Dodds is expecting it

0:35:380:35:43

any time soon. Very hard for them to

get their act together I would have

0:35:430:35:47

thought in the coming months.

Thank

you.

0:35:470:35:50

That's it from The View

for this week.

0:35:500:35:52

Join me for Sunday Politics

at 11:35am here on BBC One.

0:35:520:35:55

But before we go, we thought we'd

share this little insight from one

0:35:550:35:58

of our MPs that popped up

on social media today.

0:35:580:36:00

It just...reminded us of someone.

0:36:000:36:02

Goodnight!

0:36:020:36:04

Hello, welcome to room 65 in the

upper committee corridor of

0:36:040:36:07

Parliament.

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