21/01/2016 This Week


21/01/2016

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Tonight, after a week of freezing weather,

:00:11.:00:20.

David Cameron is with the world's so-called movers and shakers

:00:21.:00:23.

But is the Prime Minister going off-piste by talking

:00:24.:00:29.

about the possibility of deporting immigrants who don't learn to speak

:00:30.:00:31.

Comedian Sadia Azmat, has joined the This Week

:00:32.:00:37.

Cameron's skiing in Davos this week, but is on a much more slippery

:00:38.:00:57.

slope with Muslim women in the UK this week.

:00:58.:00:59.

Canapes and champagne consumed by world leaders in the Alps

:01:00.:01:02.

as turmoil in the markets increases fears of another economic downturn.

:01:03.:01:04.

One of those not invited to the jamboree, journalist

:01:05.:01:07.

and broadcaster, Julia Hartley-Brewer.

:01:08.:01:07.

Cameron is desperate for his fellow leaders to focus on his EU

:01:08.:01:11.

negotiation, but they have other matters on their minds.

:01:12.:01:14.

And, bringing the financial crash of 2008 to the big screen,

:01:15.:01:17.

braving the cold conditions in the This Week studio,

:01:18.:01:19.

Hollywood writer and director of The Big Short, Adam McKay.

:01:20.:01:24.

The housing market is rock solid. It's a time bomb.

:01:25.:01:34.

I've waxed my skiis and I'm off on the piste!

:01:35.:01:42.

Now, long-suffering fans of the show will know to their cost that

:01:43.:01:50.

Diane Abbott is a hard habit to break.

:01:51.:01:53.

For over a decade she bestrode our sofa like a colossal pain

:01:54.:01:56.

So news that Diane will soon be portrayed on the London stage

:01:57.:02:04.

in a song-and-dance-and-hard-left spectacular entitled Corbyn

:02:05.:02:09.

the Musical, The Motorcycle Diaries has already been greeted

:02:10.:02:12.

with a five-star review by those who know her

:02:13.:02:14.

The plot sounds entirely reasonable to us and sees our Jezza facing

:02:15.:02:20.

a nuclear crisis with the Soviet Union, set

:02:21.:02:25.

against the doomed-romantic background of the pair's

:02:26.:02:29.

now-infamous East German motorcycle holiday in the late 1970s.

:02:30.:02:33.

A sort of Easy Rider meets the Stasi extravaganza you might think,

:02:34.:02:38.

but described by the writers as James Bond meets the Kama Sutra,

:02:39.:02:44.

it promises to do for Diane and Jeremy Corbyn what Summer Lovin'

:02:45.:02:48.

and Grease Lightnin' did for Sandy and Danny Zuko.

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Of course, political balance demands that we also express our enthusiasm

:02:53.:02:59.

for the upcoming Boy George musical provisionally entitled,

:03:00.:03:01.

of Cutting Student Maintenance Grants -

:03:02.:03:04.

Though nobody knows what the soundtrack will be

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since there's no mention of it in the Tory manifesto.

:03:08.:03:09.

Speaking of nasty surprises you weren't told about,

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I'm joined on the sofa tonight by two unexpected items back

:03:12.:03:13.

Think of them as the 'sympathy strike' and the 'sympathy card'

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I speak, of course, of #fourpercent Liz 'miserables' Kendall

:03:18.:03:22.

and #sadmanonatrain Michael 'choo choo' Portillo.

:03:23.:03:29.

Welcome to you both. Thank you very much. Michael, your moment of the

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week? Jean-Claude Juncker, the President of the European Commission

:03:35.:03:38.

seems to be proposing changes to immigration rules which are very

:03:39.:03:41.

significant from Britain's point of view. We are able to deport and have

:03:42.:03:47.

deported 12,000 immigrants over the last few years to the place where,

:03:48.:03:52.

in the European Union they first sought asylum. Which is the Dublin

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Agreement? He is saying this might need to be revoked unless Britain

:03:58.:04:01.

agrees to take its quota of immigrants, which in our case would

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probably be about 90,000 souls. Quite a significant number. This

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dwarfs what David Cameron is talking about at Davos, for example, which

:04:11.:04:15.

is the limit on when EU citizens, who move to this country, would

:04:16.:04:19.

first receive benefits. It's a much bigger problem. If it really is the

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case that Juncker is thinking of making these changes, it will loom

:04:23.:04:27.

Brett pretty large over this He may think summer. About it, I suggest to

:04:28.:04:30.

you it will not happen? You think because he will see this as dynamite

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in the referendum campaign? Yes it would be deeply unpopular in Eastern

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Europe too. It won't just be Britain. We will see, you never

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know. We will see. Liz. Today's enquire into Litvinenko's murder.

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Remarkable, wasn't it? It may not ultimately have been surprising, but

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it was brutally shocking I thought in its conclusions. It raises very

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difficult issues for the Government which has to be able to demonstrate

:05:00.:05:03.

it's not going to allow the Russian state to get away with murder whilst

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also being able to deal with Russia over the very serious questions in

:05:08.:05:13.

Syria and Isil. I also think it raises some important questions for

:05:14.:05:19.

those on the hard left who have often acted as apologists for

:05:20.:05:22.

Russia, claiming Russia is always forced into things by the West and

:05:23.:05:28.

claiming that somehow they are the subject of propaganda from the

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western media and demonised. I hope after today's report we never hear

:05:34.:05:40.

those comments again. I never thought I would hear him name a head

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of a foreign state. Quite amazing. Now, John Major described Britain

:05:49.:05:55.

as a country of "long shadows on cricket grounds, warm beer,

:05:56.:05:57.

invincible green suburbs, Not sure he actually mentioned

:05:58.:05:59.

the last one and he might have used another word,

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beginning with B and something to do with his parentage,

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but you get the picture. This week David Cameron went

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further, claiming speaking English was an essential feature

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of our way of life. According to Dave, tens of thousands

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of Muslim women living in the UK struggle to speak the language -

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often prevented from doing so by men who don't have their best

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interests at heart. He's even proposed deporting women

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who fail to learn the language adequately after two-and-a-half

:06:21.:06:23.

years in the country. So are Muslim women in the UK living

:06:24.:06:24.

in the social isolation Here's comedian Saria Azmat

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with her take of the week. # Grandpappy's never

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late for his dinner. # And he washes it

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down with brandy...# I'm here today for a

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lesson in Britishness. If the Prime Minister is to be

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believed, as a Muslim woman I spend most of my time waiting in corridors

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for the men folk in my life to finish their important meetings

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and hiding behind the firmly closed door of my house, which sounds

:07:01.:07:05.

more Isis than Leyton. There might be a minority of Muslim

:07:06.:07:17.

women living in the UK But the answer is not to generalise

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on the basis of a few case studies because the main thing making Muslim

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women feel like second-class citizens is the Prime Minister's

:07:29.:07:31.

demonisation of us. And speaking of generalisations,

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what truly qualifies Having a Sunday roast,

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drinking Earl Grey or crying I'll have the steak

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and kidney pie, please. In one breath, David Cameron talks

:07:43.:07:55.

of a Britain where women and girls are free to choose how they dress,

:07:56.:07:58.

how they live and who they love and in the next advocates clamping

:07:59.:08:01.

down of the wearing of the veil. You know who else tells women

:08:02.:08:04.

what to do and what to wear, For me, wearing a headscarf,

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far from being submissive, is an act of rebellion

:08:08.:08:14.

against my liberal parents. In short, it brings

:08:15.:08:16.

a better game than I do. The reality is, the Government

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is scared of a problem it doesn't understand and has reacted

:08:21.:08:28.

by further alienating the community, clamping down on the freedom

:08:29.:08:31.

and individuality it It seems like, as a Muslim woman,

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I've still got to prove my So, Mr Cameron, is this

:08:35.:08:44.

English enough for you? And from Rules Restaurant

:08:45.:08:55.

in Covent Garden, to disobeying the rules of making good

:08:56.:08:57.

television here on This Week, Sadia Azmat and Yasmin

:08:58.:09:01.

Alibhai Brown join us now. Yasmin, let me come to you first.

:09:02.:09:10.

What do you make of Sadia's take of the week there? You know, it's a

:09:11.:09:15.

good... It's a good set of arguments. Of course, nobody is

:09:16.:09:19.

saying all Muslim women are oppressed. Can you imagine anybody

:09:20.:09:23.

oppressing me? You know, I'm a Muslim woman, you know. We've often

:09:24.:09:28.

tried? You've tried and failed. I think there is a serious crisis and

:09:29.:09:36.

there is a serious problem. Just because all feel angry for the Prime

:09:37.:09:39.

Minister for the loose way in which he was talking and linking language

:09:40.:09:43.

and women to terrorism doesn't mean we have to ignore a very serious

:09:44.:09:48.

problem. We are lucky. We are lucky women. Have choices and we have

:09:49.:09:55.

independence. Before the elections I went to Rochdale I walked in this

:09:56.:10:01.

area and it seemed as if all Asian women, Muslim women, had been

:10:02.:10:04.

Spirited Away on to some planet that I didn't even know about. They

:10:05.:10:10.

weren't at the hustings or at the meetings. The same thing in Bristol.

:10:11.:10:19.

Male monopoly. East End of London the same thing. . You say a minority

:10:20.:10:24.

of Muslim women might well be oppressed. I don't think the Prime

:10:25.:10:29.

Minister said all, I think he was imself referring to minority. Do we

:10:30.:10:33.

know how big this is minority is? Is it worth doing something about the

:10:34.:10:38.

minority? I think yes, there is worth doing something. It's the way

:10:39.:10:42.

he pitches it. There will be a benefit in doing a literacy scheme.

:10:43.:10:45.

The way he makes it sound is that all Muslim women are ill literate.

:10:46.:10:48.

So that's the problem with the way he's kind of framing it. Putting

:10:49.:10:51.

aside how the Prime Minister framed it, I think Yasmin agrees with on,

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that is there a problem ta needs to be tackled? I don't know how - what

:10:56.:11:01.

research he's done. I'm sure there is - I'm asking you? From my opinion

:11:02.:11:05.

I think there's a small issue probably. Just a small issue? To be

:11:06.:11:09.

honest with you, he is making it sound like it's Muslim women. If

:11:10.:11:14.

they are in a relationship, maybe it's Muslim men as well - you agree

:11:15.:11:17.

with that. You think the problem is Muslim men? Yeah. They should not

:11:18.:11:21.

have picked on the mums and the women at all. It's not just Muslims?

:11:22.:11:26.

No, but it is mainly Muslims. It doesn't help - The literacy - No,

:11:27.:11:31.

not the literacy. This is what happens. Young women from Bangladesh

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and Pakistan in parts of India come here to marry. Those young women

:11:37.:11:40.

don't speak English. Now years and years ago I used to teach them

:11:41.:11:45.

English in their homes, in factories, we had a national free

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scheme here. Where you could go and teach them English. They killed

:11:51.:11:54.

that, big mistake. I feel very strongly that those women,

:11:55.:11:59.

particularly, are closed off, not able to speak English and cannot

:12:00.:12:03.

participate. I'm saying this because I care about them. I'm not

:12:04.:12:07.

demonising them at all. All right. Let us hold these thoughts and we

:12:08.:12:12.

will come back to you. Liz, you have a significant Muslim community in

:12:13.:12:15.

your constituency in Leicester West. Is there a problem of integration,

:12:16.:12:19.

of being able to speak the English language of becoming part of the

:12:20.:12:24.

community? Yes, I mean, I agree with the Prime Minister that it is

:12:25.:12:27.

absolutely vital that people can speak the language in this country,

:12:28.:12:31.

but I think that that applies to men and women and people of all

:12:32.:12:36.

different religions and from all different countries. But the real

:12:37.:12:40.

problem with what the Prime Minister said was he claimed he wasn't making

:12:41.:12:46.

a causal link between not being able to speak English and extremism that

:12:47.:12:50.

is precountriesly what he went on to do. The problem with that is,

:12:51.:12:53.

firstly, it doesn't get to the root cause of why radicalisation is

:12:54.:12:58.

really happening and, secondly, it does alienate the very communities

:12:59.:13:02.

he needs to work with if we are ever going to get to the root causes of

:13:03.:13:06.

the problem. Your reaction Michael? This is rather tragic, all three

:13:07.:13:10.

speakers so far have recognised to various degrees there is a problem

:13:11.:13:12.

and that the Prime Minister was right to talk about a problem. The

:13:13.:13:16.

Prime Minister has done so in such a bad way that the three speakers so

:13:17.:13:20.

far are absolutely against what he said. I would add to that the

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ridiculous idea that a woman who fails her language test by 0.5 point

:13:26.:13:31.

will find the police car screaming up to her door, dragged away from

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her children and husband, takenen to the airport -- taken to the airport

:13:37.:13:39.

and deported. Why does the Prime Minister waste his breath and ink in

:13:40.:13:44.

ludicrous statements. It's not going to happen. It's not going to happen.

:13:45.:13:53.

As so often - Why do you think he has made a basic, stupid comment. .

:13:54.:13:59.

He had time to think about it. He has a motormouth, I think. In the

:14:00.:14:05.

United States, the first rule of any immigrant, if you want to get on is

:14:06.:14:10.

you learn to speak English. Even if you're in a Hispanic community.

:14:11.:14:13.

There are more and more in the United States, you need to speak

:14:14.:14:17.

English to get on and become part of that society. That's got to be true

:14:18.:14:22.

for Britain as well? If I could interject. He keeps making these

:14:23.:14:26.

comments about how we should be British. My question is - how come

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it's harder to get into Disneyland USA than to Raqqa Syria because

:14:34.:14:37.

there is more people going to Isis every week. An Asian family what

:14:38.:14:42.

wanted to go to Disneyland and restrict from going. The Prime

:14:43.:14:46.

Minister didn't give them backing in that case story. I take that. I

:14:47.:14:50.

asked you about a, you are talking about b. I come back to this issue

:14:51.:14:54.

of an immigrant society we become more and more like that over the

:14:55.:14:58.

years. It's been generally welcomed, which would surprise many from the

:14:59.:15:02.

60s and 70s, but if you don't want to be cut off from the mainstream,

:15:03.:15:06.

if you want to get on why would you come here if you didn't want to get

:15:07.:15:10.

on, don't you have to learn English? Who is doing the cutting from the

:15:11.:15:14.

mainstream? The community is alienating the way he is speaking to

:15:15.:15:24.

the community There was more integration from the '60s to the

:15:25.:15:29.

'80s, partly because Muslim men and women had to work. The film East Is

:15:30.:15:35.

East, I've read the booklets in the mosque saying do not mix with the

:15:36.:15:39.

infidels, don't let your children mix with them, it's as if you can

:15:40.:15:44.

live... Is that widespread in Britain? Completely. Because the

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Wahabi set finances it. The publications paid for by Saudi

:15:53.:16:01.

Arabia. You don't recognise that? I completely disagree, I don't

:16:02.:16:03.

recognise that at all. I'll show you. This is where the Prime

:16:04.:16:10.

Minister was on to something when he mentioned the connection of language

:16:11.:16:15.

and extremism. It's a subtle point, but where people don't use the

:16:16.:16:20.

language, they are naturally alienated and it's a short step from

:16:21.:16:25.

that to victimhood. We had a young man telling us about the victimhood

:16:26.:16:32.

by Muslims on estates and of course if people feel excluded it's easy to

:16:33.:16:36.

inculcate the sense of victimhood and you can take people in many

:16:37.:16:42.

dangerous directions. What do you think? There's something we need to

:16:43.:16:49.

do. It's not always good to be viewing ourselves as the victims and

:16:50.:16:53.

I try not to do that, I don't do that. When David Cameron talks about

:16:54.:16:58.

contradictory terms, so he says women are free to dress how they

:16:59.:17:01.

want but they should take off the vale, I can... He mentioned... We

:17:02.:17:08.

are talking about people who come here, playing the full part in our

:17:09.:17:13.

vote, if they can't speak English and they wear the full vale, I think

:17:14.:17:20.

most people watching this programme will think it's inconceivable they

:17:21.:17:22.

could play a full part in British society. Are we wrong? The people

:17:23.:17:27.

who wear the full vale with well-speaking English people, the

:17:28.:17:32.

people I've come across. Even so, it's a symbol of self-exclusion.

:17:33.:17:35.

This is saying, you cannot see my face, the face is how we

:17:36.:17:39.

communicate, I can see your face and I have seen a school in the mid

:17:40.:17:47.

lands lands -- Midlands where every teenage girl was valed. How can this

:17:48.:17:53.

be right? How is it good for us Muslims to do this to ourselves?

:17:54.:17:59.

That's you will to their choice. Doesn't it limit, because there is a

:18:00.:18:02.

problem with higher rates of unemployment, particularly in the

:18:03.:18:06.

north of England, of Muslims. Doesn't it limit their chances of

:18:07.:18:10.

get ago job? There's probably other factors involved like discrimination

:18:11.:18:15.

as well I would say. In any case, I think I'm right in saying that the

:18:16.:18:18.

Prime Minister raised the vale in the context of public positions held

:18:19.:18:22.

by Muslim women wearing vales, in other words, you know, a judge, a

:18:23.:18:29.

teacher, a social security official, communicating with clients through a

:18:30.:18:32.

vale and he was saying that in those circumstances, he thought it

:18:33.:18:34.

inappropriate. He wasn't suggesting what the French is done, which is

:18:35.:18:38.

banning vales. Thank you both for being with us.

:18:39.:18:42.

Now it's late, Crispin Blunt on Poppers late.

:18:43.:18:45.

But don't go sniffing the Blue Nun fumes just yet.

:18:46.:18:49.

Because waiting in the wings, writer director Adam McKay

:18:50.:18:52.

is here to talk about his Oscar-nominated movie The Big Short,

:18:53.:18:56.

and the politics of the financial crash.

:18:57.:18:58.

And don't forget we are still going belly-up in the social media

:18:59.:19:02.

meltdown on The Twitter, The Fleecebook, The Friends Reunited

:19:03.:19:05.

and Gordon Brown's world wide web sphere.

:19:06.:19:11.

Now, the all-conquering success of This Week still manages

:19:12.:19:15.

How does a programme with almost no budget consistently

:19:16.:19:21.

defeat all its rivals with such consummate ease?

:19:22.:19:24.

Well, the secret's all in the high-producution values.

:19:25.:19:28.

And the fact that we bribe Question Time, and Today,

:19:29.:19:31.

and The Andrew Marr Show to be just a little bit more rubbish

:19:32.:19:35.

Newsnight doesn't really need a bribe - obviously.

:19:36.:19:40.

And so with backhanders being exchanged everywhere,

:19:41.:19:44.

we decided to do what everyone does in mid-January,

:19:45.:19:46.

and play a game of rigged tennis in the freezing cold.

:19:47.:19:49.

We turned to broadcaster and former tennis pro,

:19:50.:19:51.

This is her Round-up of the political week.

:19:52.:20:13.

# Well, you're the real tough cookie with the long history.

:20:14.:20:17.

# Of breaking little hearts...#.

:20:18.:20:19.

What many people don't know about me is that back in the day,

:20:20.:20:32.

long before the political journalism got in the way, I used to be a bit

:20:33.:20:36.

So when This Week said they were looking for someone to rig

:20:37.:20:41.

the round-up I thought - absolutely, why not.

:20:42.:20:46.

Let's get you back out there and see if you've still got it.

:20:47.:21:04.

Luckily, I didn't bet on the election.

:21:05.:21:17.

If I believed what the pollsters had to say, I'd have lost a fortune.

:21:18.:21:21.

A review of where they went so wrong was published this week and it turns

:21:22.:21:24.

They had too many Labour voters in them and too few

:21:25.:21:30.

It turns out that if Conservative voters had just answered

:21:31.:21:41.

their phones, then the pollsters wouldn't have had Labour

:21:42.:21:43.

and the Tories consistently neck and neck.

:21:44.:21:47.

The question is - did the polls affect the outcome of the election?

:21:48.:21:51.

# Why don't you hit me with your best shot...#.

:21:52.:21:59.

But they did mean that we all obsessed over whether Labour's

:22:00.:22:02.

double partner would be the SNP or not.

:22:03.:22:05.

The next test for the pollsters will be predicting the outcome

:22:06.:22:07.

If they get that wrong, they may not be allowed back

:22:08.:22:11.

Talking of not getting the ball over the net,

:22:12.:22:16.

Labour's former Foreign Secretary, Margaret Beckett, stepped back

:22:17.:22:20.

on to Centre Court this week to explain why Ed Miliband didn't

:22:21.:22:23.

It turns out it wasn't just his weak backhand.

:22:24.:22:29.

The task we had was to try and convince people

:22:30.:22:33.

that they could trust us, particularly with the economy

:22:34.:22:37.

and to deal with issues that the Conservatives had made

:22:38.:22:41.

issues of division between people like welfare and immigration,

:22:42.:22:45.

As one Labour MP succinctly put it - blame the media, blame the polls,

:22:46.:22:51.

blame the Tories, everyone's fault but ours.

:22:52.:22:54.

Frankly, the Labour Party just served too many double faults.

:22:55.:23:03.

Fundamentally, it came down to the economy and leadership.

:23:04.:23:05.

Voters didn't think that Ed Miliband would make a good leader

:23:06.:23:08.

and they didn't trust him on the economy.

:23:09.:23:10.

And if the party doesn't change its game plan,

:23:11.:23:12.

there's little chance that wildcard Jeremy Corbyn will win

:23:13.:23:15.

# I'm on the edge of glory and I'm hanging on a moment of truth.

:23:16.:23:24.

# I'm on the edge of glory and I'm hanging on a moment with you.

:23:25.:23:31.

# I'm on the edge, the edge, the edge, the edge, the edge,

:23:32.:23:36.

The global economy looks gloomy and the markets are in turmoil

:23:37.:23:43.

thanks to a slide in oil prices and slow growth in China and that

:23:44.:23:46.

has led to a change of tactics by the governor of

:23:47.:23:49.

Now is not yet the time to raise interest rates.

:23:50.:23:55.

This wasn't a surprise to market participants

:23:56.:23:58.

But it may come as a surprise to those who heard him say,

:23:59.:24:04.

just six months ago, that we should expect a rate

:24:05.:24:06.

The PM has made his annual trip to the ski slopes,

:24:07.:24:11.

rubbing shoulders with the global elites at Davos, he's been

:24:12.:24:14.

using his best topspin to encourage business leaders to get

:24:15.:24:17.

behind his EU renegotiation strategy.

:24:18.:24:20.

I think it would be good for Europe and good for Britain

:24:21.:24:23.

if we demonstrated that we can turn the goodwill that there

:24:24.:24:26.

is into the actions that are necessary to put this

:24:27.:24:28.

Come on, Julia, let's come up to the net now.

:24:29.:24:33.

There'll be a lot of new faces on the international circuit next

:24:34.:24:38.

year, one of them could be the man that we all love to hate -

:24:39.:24:42.

The Republican presidential contender infuriated,

:24:43.:24:44.

well, most of us with his call for a ban on all Muslims entering

:24:45.:24:47.

Over half a million people signed a petition in protest

:24:48.:24:53.

at Donald Trump and MPs were granted a debate in Parliament to decide

:24:54.:24:56.

whether or not to ban Trump from coming to Britain.

:24:57.:24:58.

Donald Trump is no more than a demagogue.

:24:59.:25:09.

I'm here to support the next President of the United States,

:25:10.:25:23.

So Donald Trump has the support of someone even crazier than him,

:25:24.:25:28.

When it comes to self-promoting egomaniacs, Sarah Palin has

:25:29.:25:33.

True, she'll bring him right-wing support, but what's

:25:34.:25:39.

he promised in return - Secretary of State Palin?

:25:40.:25:41.

Enough's enough's, I don't think I'm going to give up the day

:25:42.:25:50.

Um, strictly expenses you understand, absolutely no

:25:51.:25:56.

Practise makes perfect! Kind of. Michael, this huge collapse in the

:25:57.:26:14.

markets at the moment and all the major Stock Exchanges from the FTSE

:26:15.:26:20.

to the Dow, the FTSE down 20% compared to the peak, the DOW

:26:21.:26:25.

collapsed as well. Here is the most difficult question of all, is this a

:26:26.:26:33.

major correction or is a harbinger of a serious downturn in the

:26:34.:26:37.

economy? My guess would be the latter. I think there are so many

:26:38.:26:43.

people now saying that they want to get out of equities that the sheer

:26:44.:26:48.

force of numbers probably will have an impact on the markets, a very big

:26:49.:26:56.

impact before long. Then we'll two back into the usual recovery phase.

:26:57.:27:01.

But quite a lot of people are out there in quite exposed positions.

:27:02.:27:05.

There's still an awful lot of debt. Thinking about this country, of

:27:06.:27:09.

course, you know, a lot of people because we have such low interest

:27:10.:27:12.

rates have not corrected their debt positions. They may have been

:27:13.:27:17.

encouraged into greater exposure than before so this can be very

:27:18.:27:21.

painful, not just for people who own shares and pot just for people who

:27:22.:27:25.

have pension funds or are drawing pensions. I think the other thing

:27:26.:27:29.

worrying the markets is that if we were to tilt, by that I mean the

:27:30.:27:33.

Western economies back into recession, it's not clear now what

:27:34.:27:36.

the weapons would be to fight it because interest rates are still

:27:37.:27:42.

incredibly low, quantitative easing is still out there, fiscal deficits

:27:43.:27:50.

are still very high. Where are the economic tools to use if we do go

:27:51.:27:55.

back. I think that that is one of the reasons why there is such

:27:56.:27:59.

volatility in the markets. It's not simply what is happening in China or

:28:00.:28:03.

with the oil, but the markets understand that. I think the

:28:04.:28:10.

challenge for us in the UK is whether we are best prepared as we

:28:11.:28:15.

should be for what might come. I am concerned that we do still have some

:28:16.:28:19.

underlying weaknesses and imbalances in the economy and that if the ship

:28:20.:28:24.

is weakly built, it's not going to be able to weather the storm. That I

:28:25.:28:27.

think is the challenge when we come to the budget later on this year. We

:28:28.:28:32.

are so used to talking of austerity loosely because I think broadly

:28:33.:28:35.

speaking there hasn't been all that much austerity that, we don't

:28:36.:28:38.

recognise that we have been in a growth phase for quite a long period

:28:39.:28:42.

of time. In other words, what you would normally expect by now is that

:28:43.:28:45.

you would be going back into a downturn, so, it really isn't all

:28:46.:28:49.

that surprising. The other real factor, the markets have lost

:28:50.:28:53.

confidence in the Central Bank authorities of China, which

:28:54.:28:57.

mishandled the valuation of the Fed which raised rates and that was the

:28:58.:29:02.

wrong thing to do. Governor Carney seems to change every time he makes

:29:03.:29:12.

a speech. The EU now, and Brexit or not, do you think the support of big

:29:13.:29:17.

business mike Goldman Sachs which is going to step in to help in the

:29:18.:29:21.

campaign, does that help or hinder Mr Cameron in his bid to keep us in

:29:22.:29:23.

the EU? I think almost the best prospect for

:29:24.:29:33.

the out vote succeeding is if the British people get the idea that

:29:34.:29:36.

there is a conspiracy of establishment thes. If all the

:29:37.:29:43.

political parties and the major newspapers and the CBI and, dare I

:29:44.:29:47.

say it, the BBC and now the banks, if they are all on the same side,

:29:48.:29:53.

then Joe Public may say - if it's good for all those people it may not

:29:54.:29:59.

be good for me. It may make people suspicion. Where the establishment

:30:00.:30:02.

has a position it becomes pretty clear to the public where they have

:30:03.:30:06.

to aim if they want to kick the establishment very hard. We have

:30:07.:30:13.

seen that in continental Europe. The Swedish ref to Jiang r join the

:30:14.:30:18.

euro. Their equivalent of the TUC were in favour of it, the Social

:30:19.:30:23.

Democrats were in favour of it and big business was in favour of it and

:30:24.:30:29.

the people voted against it? Yes we need insurgent i in the "in"

:30:30.:30:33.

campaign and think more about small businesses. There is a big desire

:30:34.:30:38.

amongst climate change and green groups. We need to give it a bit of

:30:39.:30:44.

energy and that is what I know certainly Allen Johnson is termed to

:30:45.:30:50.

do with the Labour In For Britain can Campaign. I don't get the

:30:51.:30:54.

impression that Theresa May or Boris Johnson will jump ship and join the

:30:55.:31:00.

"Out" campaign. The biggest name to join from the Cabinet will be Iain

:31:01.:31:03.

Duncan Smith? That would certainly be a pity. You may be right, I think

:31:04.:31:08.

it's not a foregone conclusion. The Prime Minister and, I wouldn't put

:31:09.:31:11.

too much weight on this, has again been talking about the possibility

:31:12.:31:15.

of the referendum not being in June but at a later date. It's difficult

:31:16.:31:20.

to know what is going to happen. If it looked as though t leafers had a

:31:21.:31:27.

chance the leadership candidates might change their position. It's a

:31:28.:31:30.

joke to call them leadership candidates when what we are talking

:31:31.:31:36.

about here is followership. Labour report by Margaret Beckett. Would it

:31:37.:31:40.

be unfair, Liz, to say it wasn't the most revealing report I've ever read

:31:41.:31:45.

on why Labour lost? It's good it has come out. Some of us were pushing

:31:46.:31:49.

for it to be published. Was there a chance it might not have been A at

:31:50.:31:52.

one stage I wasn't sure it would come out. It was raised in the

:31:53.:32:01.

parliament Labour Party. It reminds me of Orwell's comment - to see what

:32:02.:32:07.

is in front of one's nose requires a constant struggle and sooner or

:32:08.:32:13.

later a false belief bumps you up against a solid reality." All of us

:32:14.:32:19.

on the doorstep knew people didn't trust us on economy, leadership and

:32:20.:32:22.

concerns about welfare and immigration. We can blame the

:32:23.:32:29.

pollsters, media, and the SNP we need to look at ourselves and what

:32:30.:32:33.

the public really think about us if we are going to have a hope in hell

:32:34.:32:39.

of winning in It was soft 2020. On Ex Machina did he nobble Margaret

:32:40.:32:45.

Beckett? He wouldn't have done that. No In the end the Labour takes

:32:46.:32:49.

responsibility for the strategy and direction of travel of the party.

:32:50.:32:52.

All of us is have a big responsibility. I don't think we did

:32:53.:32:55.

the serious thinking over the last five to eight years about who we are

:32:56.:32:58.

and what we stand for in the modern world. We are - It's a problem of

:32:59.:33:04.

centre left parties throughout Europe? It's a cliche we remain an

:33:05.:33:11.

industrial parties in a post-industrial age. We believe we

:33:12.:33:15.

can pull the levers of the state and make things happen. That is not how

:33:16.:33:22.

the world works any more. My prize for deep thinking this week goes to

:33:23.:33:26.

the analysis of why the pollsters got it wrong - they asked too many

:33:27.:33:33.

Labour voters, how did that lap? Their methodology appears very

:33:34.:33:35.

wrong. What is quite sinister, I mean, it really is a terrible

:33:36.:33:40.

deception of the public it has real consequences in the way that

:33:41.:33:44.

pollsters bunch. They herded? They herded. If one of them, as it turns

:33:45.:33:52.

out, gets it right they start correcting and adjusting their own

:33:53.:33:54.

figures so they align themselves with the herd. In this case actually

:33:55.:34:00.

what we are seeing is not a not accurate. In some cases it isn't

:34:01.:34:05.

honest. In some ways distorts. I think if the poll had been accurate

:34:06.:34:09.

rather than inaccurate during the campaign the way the media covered

:34:10.:34:12.

the campaign would have been different. Yes. The way the Labour

:34:13.:34:15.

Party fought the campaign, if they thought they were behind and

:34:16.:34:19.

struggling, it would have changed the way they voted. And some of the

:34:20.:34:24.

things promised wouldn't have been promised. Of course. The pollsters

:34:25.:34:30.

of Ex Machina in Nicola Sturgeon's pocket, it was powerful and happened

:34:31.:34:34.

at the end. Those last-minute things, important though they are

:34:35.:34:42.

didn't affect the underlining fundamentals. Even thoep the polls

:34:43.:34:47.

may have had an impact towards the end I think - The trends were

:34:48.:34:51.

against you. There is a lesson for people like me. If you see that a

:34:52.:34:55.

party is ahead in the leadership and ahead on the economy, and you still

:34:56.:34:59.

believe the polls they are going to lose the election you need to

:35:00.:35:02.

question that a bit more. OK. Thank you for that.

:35:03.:35:07.

Now, the Labour Party published a report this week into why it lost

:35:08.:35:10.

According to author Margaret Beckett, the Tories -

:35:11.:35:13.

ably assisted by their Lib Dem coalition partners -

:35:14.:35:15.

"assiduously fostered the myth that financial institutions had been

:35:16.:35:18.

brought to their knees by the overspending of a profligate

:35:19.:35:20.

Well, if you believe that you deserve whatever

:35:21.:35:23.

Whatever, it was certainly an effective strategy,

:35:24.:35:26.

putting the blame on politicians rather than the financial system.

:35:27.:35:29.

But does that mean the real causes of the crash are still being

:35:30.:35:34.

ignored, setting us up for a fall yet again?

:35:35.:35:37.

We're concerned and that's why we're putting the financial crash

:35:38.:35:39.

With markets on the slide round the world, some people

:35:40.:35:56.

are worried we could face another financial crash like 2008.

:35:57.:36:00.

Perfect time then for a movie that shines a light on what went so badly

:36:01.:36:04.

I'm sure the world's banks have more incentives agreed.

:36:05.:36:09.

The Big Short tells the story of the men who went

:36:10.:36:14.

against the economic grain and predicted the bubble would burst

:36:15.:36:16.

Eccentric characters who understood what collateralised debt obligations

:36:17.:36:21.

were and how the credit default swap market worked and thyen bet

:36:22.:36:26.

against them when everyone else was looking the other way.

:36:27.:36:29.

If you're wrong, you could lose it all.

:36:30.:36:34.

The banks defrauded the American people.

:36:35.:36:37.

The film was based on the best-selling book by Michael

:36:38.:36:43.

Adam McKay, known for Hollywood comedies such as Anchor Man,

:36:44.:36:46.

wrote the screen play and directed the movie,

:36:47.:36:48.

turning the complex world of high finance and subprime mortgages

:36:49.:36:51.

into a whip smart blockbuster, gaining a bucket load of Oscar

:36:52.:36:55.

and Bafta nominations in the process.

:36:56.:36:57.

Do you have any idea what you just did?

:36:58.:37:00.

The American economy. Scenes from The Big Short. We are joined by its

:37:01.:37:13.

director and writer, Adam McKay. Welcome to the programme.

:37:14.:37:17.

Congratulations on the movie, nominated part of the Oscar

:37:18.:37:21.

nominations. Let me ask you this, what possessed you to make a movie

:37:22.:37:29.

about credit default swaps and collateralised debt obligation? How

:37:30.:37:32.

did that pitch go down in Hollywood? It's funny much I read the book.

:37:33.:37:36.

Michael Lewis is a recognise of a writer. I read the book in one

:37:37.:37:41.

night. Picked it up at 9.00pm. My wife was like, "what are you

:37:42.:37:45.

reading?" I said, "I will check this out" I was up to 6.00am. A great

:37:46.:37:52.

combination of compelling characters and salient information. I had never

:37:53.:37:55.

seen that combination before. You wrote the screenplay? Yes. Did you

:37:56.:38:02.

have to do a quick read on the financial instruments and financial

:38:03.:38:06.

markets? I did. You know, as friends of mine will tell you, I tend to be

:38:07.:38:11.

a bit obsessive. I started reading a lot of books and a lot of websites

:38:12.:38:18.

and we had a great consultant on our movie, Adam Davidson, a financial

:38:19.:38:22.

journalist. I just went through a crash course in economics and

:38:23.:38:27.

finance. Crash course, get it! Exactly! A stable course - I should

:38:28.:38:33.

have said. But, yeah, I learned a lot in a very short amount of time

:38:34.:38:38.

and the big thing was to crack the jargon. The big thing the banks do,

:38:39.:38:42.

they throw a lot of jargon at you to separate the people from the wheels

:38:43.:38:46.

of power. I really wanted to make it so that working people could see

:38:47.:38:49.

this movie and understand what really happened. Didn't it happen

:38:50.:38:52.

that they didn't understand their own jargon? They actually bought

:38:53.:38:58.

into their own Li to some degree. They definitely lost track of the

:38:59.:39:02.

con or the fraud, if you will, because it got so big and

:39:03.:39:06.

profitable, which often happens. No, they knew their own jargon - Some of

:39:07.:39:11.

the bosses didn't. The Chief Executive of RBS, which was almost

:39:12.:39:15.

destroyed, he told me, six months before, he didn't really know what

:39:16.:39:22.

it was? They didn't want to know. It was Triple-A. It didn't count as

:39:23.:39:26.

debt on their books. How convenient is that? It would be like my scale

:39:27.:39:31.

was broken. It was telling me every morning I weighed 180llbs. I

:39:32.:39:35.

wouldn't look to fix it. It was a certain - I've got that scale too!

:39:36.:39:43.

Can I borrow it? Yes, can you have it for the week? The incentives got

:39:44.:39:48.

turned upside down. There was a degree of stupidity. A degree of

:39:49.:39:55.

fraud. I think the ratings agencies were really culpable and the media,

:39:56.:39:58.

in the US, really missed the ball on this one as well. Michael Lewis

:39:59.:40:04.

makes that in an interview in Britain this week, that financial

:40:05.:40:07.

journalism, people whole knew more about it, until you started to do

:40:08.:40:11.

your homework, knew more than you. They never got this? They never saw

:40:12.:40:15.

this? It's funny. We have a scene in the movie where a couple of main

:40:16.:40:19.

characters go to the Wall Street Journal and say it's going on. The

:40:20.:40:24.

Wall Street Journal goes - get out of here. Some people from the Wall

:40:25.:40:27.

Street Journal were annoyed by this. They say, the truth is the guys came

:40:28.:40:31.

to you three times thech went to the New York Times, they went to a bunch

:40:32.:40:37.

other outlets they tried to tell me the Wall Street Jourpal. They said -

:40:38.:40:42.

we knew there was a housing bubble. I said, did you know there were CDOs

:40:43.:40:48.

and a contagion? There was a long pause and a no. I said it never

:40:49.:40:52.

occurred to you that the market was that big that you couldn't look into

:40:53.:40:57.

it? Could something similar happen again? What is that? Could something

:40:58.:41:01.

similar happen again? I don't think it will be exactly the way we saw it

:41:02.:41:06.

go down. It never is? No, I don't think it's about the housing market.

:41:07.:41:11.

I think that blindness that is led by greed and profits the orderly

:41:12.:41:15.

system, right now, you guys were talking about it with China and oil

:41:16.:41:19.

where it's at, it could happen from any other kind of thing. Do you

:41:20.:41:22.

think the banks are too billing big to fail? No question. No question.

:41:23.:41:27.

They are so much bigger. In the US five banks control more than 50% of

:41:28.:41:32.

the entire banking industry. That is incredibly dangerous. There is a a

:41:33.:41:37.

lot of junk debt around in the energy sector at the moment. A lot

:41:38.:41:44.

of areas where you could see something happening again. The group

:41:45.:41:51.

who saw what was happening and no-one believed them, they are

:41:52.:41:59.

outside the mainstream they were not what you think of the tie ans of

:42:00.:42:05.

Wall Street? No they were strange guys. That is why they could see it.

:42:06.:42:08.

The reality was - everything is great. Home prices will always go

:42:09.:42:15.

up. I was m LA, everyone thought - it's the way it was. Christian

:42:16.:42:31.

Bale's character would read numbers. He was immune to popular culture.

:42:32.:42:35.

That is how he saw it. He was really the first guy to see it before

:42:36.:42:40.

anyone else. It's now, seven years since the epicentre of the crash. I

:42:41.:42:47.

would suggest that there is still a lot of anger about it? Oh, yeah.

:42:48.:42:52.

From the United States perspective, Donald Trump. He reflects it. Bernie

:42:53.:43:00.

Sanders? A rational version of anger. Donald Trump is a punch a

:43:01.:43:04.

hole-in-the-wall type of anger. It makes no sense. No-one knows why

:43:05.:43:08.

they are supporting him. That anger comes from the fact that the

:43:09.:43:13.

recovery in the US, the wages have been flat for 98% of the public and

:43:14.:43:19.

for the top 1%, 2% there has been an up tick. That is not healthy. It's

:43:20.:43:24.

never good for an economy. You don't want income inequality. Ied middle

:43:25.:43:28.

America feels let down these days? Absolutely. It will feel even more

:43:29.:43:33.

let down when they say your movie. It has an Oscar nominations. I can

:43:34.:43:41.

ensure you that the bear markets are more interesting than a bear! You

:43:42.:43:44.

have been waiting all evening for that one. That was nice. Good luck

:43:45.:43:49.

at the Oscars. My absolute pleasure. Thank you for having me.

:43:50.:43:56.

That's your lot for tonight folks, but not for us because it's

:43:57.:43:59.

match-fixing night at Lou Lou's and Michael and Liz have been bribed

:44:00.:44:02.

to throw some shapes on the dance floor.

:44:03.:44:04.

But we leave you tonight with the gift that keeps on giving -

:44:05.:44:07.

after the Labour Party were sent into an administrative frenzy this

:44:08.:44:10.

week, desperate to find the sales invoice for the infamous 'EdStone'.

:44:11.:44:15.

The party urgently needed to supply details of its cost

:44:16.:44:19.

to the Electoral Commission and today it was revealed they spent

:44:20.:44:22.

around ?8,000 on the two-tonne slab of limestone that sunk

:44:23.:44:25.

That's only ?7,400 more than they spent

:44:26.:44:32.

Nighty night, don't let the joke that never gets old bite.

:44:33.:44:50.

Our pledges form the basis of our plan for working people. . These six

:44:51.:44:57.

pledges are now carved in stone. They're carved in stone because they

:44:58.:45:01.

won't be abandoned after the general election. I want the British people

:45:02.:45:07.

to remember these pledges because I want the British people to be in no

:45:08.:45:12.

doubt - we will deliver them. Thank you very much.

:45:13.:45:16.

APPLAUSE. I want to try him on a bottle

:45:17.:45:32.

of formula. Please, Sister. MUSIC: Take Good Care Of My Baby

:45:33.:45:33.

by Bobby Vee I ain't getting in the red for

:45:34.:45:34.

a pram. You've got to try harder.

:45:35.:45:38.

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