Local - Part 3 Vote 2014

you were with us last night. If you were not, welcome to the BBC's

election centre. We have now had roughly half of the results of this

year's local elections. There appears to have been a political

earthquake in England. The three main political parties have now

become four. UKIP have picked up seats everywhere from Essex to

Bristol, Portsmouth to Rotherham. They had much less success in London

but no one is denying that this has been very night. Everyone else looks

pretty disappointed. David Cameron's Conservatives picked up

Kingston from the Liberal Democrats. They lost overall control pleasers

like Peterborough, Basildon, Brentwood, Maidstone, Hammersmith.

For the Lib Dems, even worse. They lost around one third of the seats

they were defending last night. It looks like the party is heading for

another overall poor performance. Labour gained some council seats but

not as many as Ed Miliband would have wanted. With just one year

until the general election. The party won Councils like Cambridge

and Hammersmith from the Tories but they lost the wreck. He said Labour

was on its way to years ago when they won are. And Labour, like

everyone else, lost ground to UKIP. This afternoon, the inverse studio,

we will take in the results as they come. We have enough, Newcastle,

important places. We will see whether the UKIP juggernaut

continues right through the afternoon. Professor John Curtis

will analyse the data and work out who has been hit hardest by this new

development in English politics. Joining us we have our chief

political correspondent Norman Smith and a panel of senior MPs from

Westminster. We want to talk to them not just about what their parties

can do but about the disaffection with the political class and

politics we have been hearing as an explanation as to why UKIP have done

well. First, Emily has watched the results come in through the night.

We are now in a system of four party politics. Labour have gained nearly

130 tonight but not as many as they would have liked. The Lib Dems have

proportionally taken a much bigger hit than the Conservatives. UKIP are

up 92 councillors from pretty much a standing start. There are

interesting regional variations which we will come onto later.

Nearly half way there. Jeremy Vine is with his giant map.

It seems only 24 hours ago it was painted in these colours but it is

changing as the results come in. We have around half the results. Labour

in red. The first sign of trouble for Labour was Tamworth. Councils

have gone grey in Essex, meaning no overall control because UKIP stopped

the Conservatives taking them back. If you're looking for the Lib Dems,

they are hard to spot. The first sign is here in South London in

Sutton. Before we do that, let's catch up

with the news and then we will be back.

For some reason, we can't hear the news. Forgive us. Let's come

straight to your politicians. It has been a grisly night for you. Justin

Greening. It looks like we will lose some councillors over the next few

hours but there are places we have hours but there are places we have

made gains, like Tamworth. Labour have not done as well as they

expected. If you look at what is really coming out of the results

today and yesterday, it is the emergence of UKIP. I think we need

to make sure we understand what is behind the votes people are casting.

And it was the European election so it is understandable UKIP got their

vote out. Why do you not just embrace them like some of your

backbenchers suggested? Then you'll all your people back. We have taken

on a lot of issues that they been talking about. Issues about clamping

down on welfare and making sure it is a system which rewards people for

getting back into work. Tackling immigration. And that is why they

have all gone away? Why don't you embrace UKIP and not just coax the

voters back? We want to reach out to voters and not a party like UKIP. We

are not going to be doing any pacts with them. What is important is that

we actually look at the issues being raised which matter to people. Those

are issues of Europe and the European union and there is only one

party which is going to be able to deliver the referendum everyone

wants. party which is going to be able to

We have been clear we will have a referendum on Europe if we are a

majority government. We will clamp down on welfare and make sure it

pays people to get back into work. We have come down on immigration and

made it fairer. Clearly, we need to continue and make sure we have

answers to the sort of questions UKIP voters are asking. Vince Cable,

this is your comeuppance for going into the coalition in the first

place. It was the right thing to do but clearly there is a price to pay.

It has been disappointing for all of us. Our results were not great but

it has been mixed. We have done well in Eastleigh, Sutton, Maidstone. We

have suffered for being part of the coalition. Have you lost your role

as the party of protest, the place where young people went because your

ideas inspired them? Everyone who is disillusioned now goes to UKIP. We

have certainly lost the support of people who voted simply as a

protest. I do not share your view that this taps into the general

election. A lot of people are very angry because of the price they have

paid for this very deep slump which individual people are not

responsible for and they are taking it out on the established parties,

including mine. Sadiq Khan, Labour appears to have gone backwards in

some places. I want to put to you a quote from The Times. It is from a

senior frontbencher. The problem is that Ed Miliband looks weird, sounds

weird and is weird. He isn't hacking it because people aren't warming to

him. Newsflash, the Times doesn't like the Labour leader. Who is the

quotation from? It is anonymous. UKIP did very well last night. We

should not distract from their achievement as Justine Greening

tried to do. Where did Labour do well last night? In the areas where

we need to win seats in the general election. In Hammersmith and Fulham

and tooting, we went forward. In Redbridge, Croydon, Haverhill ``

Harrow. In Cambridge, Peterborough, Lincoln, we did well. You have 132

games at the moment and the basic prediction was that you needed some

around 400 to show the kind of momentum for a general election that

an opposition party would usually show. You just aren't hacking it. In

2010, we got the second worst result in our history since universal

suffrage. History tells you that when a party loses a general

election, it takes a long time to be competitive. Within four years we

are competitive. We are making progress in the right parts of the

country where we need to make progress to win next year. Here is

Nigel Farage at his press conference. UKIP took enough

councillors in Thurrock to deny overall control to Labour. I think

our message resonated and also constituencies like this, UKIP takes

votes from everybody. We are picking up Tory votes, Labour votes. I think

you will find a lot of people who voted for UKIP probably voted one

way for 20 years. One of your spokespeople said you didn't do well

in London because people are cultured and educated and young. He

was our spokesperson in Manchester. I have no idea who said that.

Certainly, London is a younger demographic but the real reason we

are not as strong in London is that political parties rely heavily on

voluntary structure and our voluntary structure in London is

behind the rest of the country, 12`18 months behind. There is no

reason why in many parts of London we can't do better next year. What

we always said was what we have to do is get areas where we have

clusters of councillors on a district level or county level and

they will become target seats in 2015 for the general election. Is it

more than a protest vote? The political parties have been

comforting themselves with that. They said it after 2009, Eastleigh,

well, it looks like a pretty permanent protest vote. Ask me after

I have been there. Do you want to be the MP in this area that is not for

me to do. The public are receptive but we have good voluntary local

structures here. I thought if I put myself up in Essex to stand, the

local UKIP branch would reject me on the basis I wasn't one of them. I

have never mentioned a number. The question is how many seats will

retard it. We do not have the data from these results. We will sit down

and think about it over the next few but we will buy the summer recess

have worked out what our target seat will be and put our best candidates

and our resources behind them. Do you think Nigel Farage is in with a

chance of winning the number of seats, one or two or 10 at a general

election? Before these results people are talking about Farage

maybe winning 10 seats. That's their optimistic version. I wouldn't be

surprised if they target more. Their strategy is to borrow from the

Liberal Democrats. The Paddy Ashdown strategy. Work out where you are

strong and throw everything at those seats. What we learnt from Thurrock

is their ability to damage the established parties. Thurrock is a

terrible loss for Labour. It is an emblematic southern seat which they

hailed themselves two years ago as evidence they were breaking through

into the south. Now UKIP's deprived them of that seat. That's happening

all over the country to all the parties. You kip took from everyone.

What I think it means is not they are going to sweep to victory at the

general election but this is a storm a long time coming at Westminster.

There's been a level of disenchantment, a level of

resentment andalenation which has been bubbling along for years. Now

it has broken. I think the challenge for the three many parties is how do

they respond. At the moment, my sense is they are really strapping

their heads and wondering what do they do. We've heard calls for the

Tories to do a pact with UKIP. That's already been squashed as not

a runner. Other suggestions Labour should adopt a more aggressive

approach with UKIP. Get stuck in, call him aryist. That is not Ed

Miliband's approach. You sense for the established main parties it is

not a threat to their seats but a threat to their open being. What

they are about. This is a very strong message from the great

British public to the established parties about what they don't like

about politics. Norman, who is most under threat and who is least under

threat from UKIP? Labour have an in`built advantage at a general

election. Despite the fact they beat Labour in Thurrock. They take most

of their support from the Conservatives. But I don't think it

comes down to seats. It is more a culture thing. How do the parties

engage with the public. It is as basic as that. All the way back to

the expenses scandal and beyond. Let's have some results from Emily.

These are the results in Hong done. Interesting to hear how Nigel Farage

says UKIP is struggling in London. They don't have the foot soldiers.

If you look, they've made 92 gains in England. Just 3 in London. The

part of the country they are least strong in. Labour have made a huge

proportion of their gains here. They've added 79 councillors. From

this list, these are their gains. They are predominately in London.

Croydon they took easily from the Conservatives. A two`horse race

overnight. They managed to push the Conservatives down. That drop has

landed them with Croydon. Redbridge, Murton, this one they took. They

will be pleased with that from overall control. Overnight, more

complicated picture. You'd resident's associations and the

rest. Labour up. Conservatives down. This one, outside of London, this is

their biggest gain of the night. This is not a UKIP story. When you

look at that spread, a solid university town. They've been

pushing at the Liberal Democrat vote here. Labour up 7, Liberal Democrats

down 7. If I show you back over the last four years, this is an

electoral cycle. They vote in thirds. You can see that direction

of travel for Labour and the Liberal Democrats pushing the Liberal

Democrats down since possibly that tuition fees failure of a policy for

the Liberal Democrats. Down 15 for Liberal Democrats. Cambridge the

only place outside London they picked up. But solid in the

south`east. Let's go to explore more about

London. Tim Donovan, the London Political Editor. He's in Barnet.

Tell us about what's been happening in London as far as you've seen it.

I think this looks like, from my calculations, this is the best

performance that Labour have had in London since 1998. I think they've

gained control of 19 councils. It is possible, by the end of today, they

could equal their record, which was back in 1971 when they had control

of 21 councils. That would require them to do something in Tower

Hamlets later this evening and to win back Harrow where there was a

split in the Labour group a few months ago so there has been no

overall control. Where they to win Barnet here, they would take them to

22. Here in Barnet it may show the limit of their advances. They need

to gain 10 seats here. It is not immediately obvious talking to

Labour and Tories where that will happen. But one key area will be the

south`east of burrow where `` burrough where there have been three

Liberal Democrat councillors. That will be a key indicator. It is

suspected the Liberal Democrats will lose their place on the council.

That may be the platform for a Labour resurgence. It is not

immediately clear they will do this. The Hammersmith and Fulham count was

spectacular. 11 Labour gains from the Conservatives straight? Everyone

looking at that one has said it is remarkable and very few people were

predicting it. The assumption had been Labour had got as far as they

were going to in the process of del graphic change there `` demographic

change. Labour thought they'd have a better chance here at Barnet. Why

did that happen? This is an awe authoritiy that cut council tax,

achieved a reputation for municipal cost`cutting. Clearly under the

surface there there have been unpopular developments. Clearly a

great cambane over a local hospital. Issues about the lack of affordable

housing. People affect theed by benefit changes `` people affected

by benefit changes. Justine Greening. Why did you lose

Hammersmith? Shah As the local member said Labour ran a

disingenuous campaign which preyed on people's fierce about what would

happen to their local hospital unfairly. It was a council that had

cut tax. Been seen as very competent. Obviously, now, I think,

hopefully, in the future, we'll be able to win Hammersmith and Fulham

back. For the time being, it will be back in Labour hands. We'll expect

to see council tax going up. Good, thank you. We can hear from the

Prime Minister David Cameron. He's in Whitney a Oxfordshire. His first

reaction to last night's results. How disappointed are you with last

night's result? There's a very clear message from last night's elections.

People want us to deliver. The economy is growing. We are creating

jobs but we have to work harder and really deliver on issues that are

frustrating people and frustrating me, like welfare reform,

immigration, making sure people really benefit from this recovery.

We'll work flat out to demonstrate we have the answers to help hard

working people. Would you consider a pact with UKIP going into the next

election or a coalition afterwards? We are the Conservative Party, we

don't do pacts and deals. We are fighting for an all`out within at

the next election. We lost some good councillors last night but our vote

share was up from last year. We took a council off the Liberal Democrats

in London in Kingston. We held councils like Swindon and dam worth

which were Labour for many years before. I'm confidence `` Tamworth.

I'm confident this is a base from which we can go forward and win.

What about at local level? Our local councillors will make decisions how

best to deliver look at services at low cost for local people. How big a

blow was losing Hammersmith? It is one of your pet councils? We did

lose some good councillors and good councils last night. That does

happen when you're running the Government. I'm sorry for those who

have lost their seats and the councils we've lost but our vote

share went up compared with last year. We've more councillors than

any other party in local government. We took description ton off the

Liberal Democrats in London. We held councils, Swindon, Tamworth, many

others that are or who have been Labour for many years. We've held

them through this Government because we are providing good services at a

low cost. Our Political Editor in the east

Midlands at Amber scale valley in Derbyshire. John, we talked about an

earthquake. Has there been one in your neck of the woods? What is

interesting here, Amber Valley is in the middle of the Midlands. It has

east Midlands towns like Ripley and Belper. All about 10 minutes drive

off the M 1 heading north and south. What's interesting is the seats that

Labour needed to win and the seats that the Conservatives needed to

hold are in those Ripley and Bleper areas. The situation now in a

council and parliamentary level which has swung from Labour to the

Conservatives is Labour have taken those two key seats they needed to

win in order to wrestle control from the Conservatives. Labour absolutely

cock`a`hoop. The Labour Leader, Paul Jones, led a rendition of the red

flag among his jubilant party workers. Stuart Bradford, who was

the leaders of the council, the Conservative Leader for the last 14

years, I asked him what lessons to the Conservatives need to learn here

and what lessons does the Prime Minister need to learn. He said

there weren't any particular lessons here. It was very much a local

campaign. The Government had to stuck with its economic policy. In

terms of UKIP, they have polled well in Amber Valley but not nearly as

well as UKIP were talking about. And hoping to do much better in picking

up a couple of seats in those former mining areas of these parts of the

east Midlands. That hasn't happened. The Liberal Democrat vote hit the

floor. There are few Liberal Democrat candidates who stood in

this election who got anything above 90 votes. It is not their contest at

all. What's also interesting, the Prime Minister chose Amber Valley to

visit at the start of this election campaign. He had one of those town

hall meetings with factory workers a few miles from here. Ed Miliband,

who was due to visit earlier this week never made it in the end

because of train delays at St Pancras. He had to go to Nottingham

instead. But Labour here at Amber Valley, for the first thyme they are

controlling this local authority in 14 years. Nigel Mills, the

Conservative MP who won the seat from Labour in the General Election

four years ago with the majority of 530 was one of the first

Conservatives to leave the count this morning. He said also, like

Stuart Bradford, that the Prime Minister needed to stick the course.

John, thank you. Let's look at a few more figures,

Jeremy, extrapolate from the results we've had what it means? Now we are

getting the London results on our map. It is changing. We have two

elections going on here. Inside London, we'll talk about in a

moment. Let me show you the overall figure.

London, we'll talk about in a moment. Let me show you the overall

figure. If wee look at our key wards. These are the wards we

analysed to get a sense of the political weather. You can see

Labour winning this election on the basis of our key wards. Not by a

huge amount. Nothing to write home about. 28% for the Conservatives in

second place. Liberal Democrats on 16. UKIP on 15% and 6% for the

Greens and 3% for the others. Those are the percentages we are left with

after looking at key wards across the country, London and beyond.

Let's have a look at change. Change is the key to how parties are doing.

In 2010, the year of the General Election, the coalition won. Labour

were doing badly. How have they increased their vote since Gordon

Brown was leader? The answer is only by 4%. On the 2010 result.

Conservatives down 6%. That's not good for them at all. Liberal

Democrats down 13% on local election results in 2010. Pretty awful for

them. And there's the sensational figures, 14% up for UKIP. The UKIP

increase was higher before because we had not factored in London.

Greens up a bit too. This is a comparison with 2012. This is more

worrying from Labour's point of view. 2012, the Conservatives were

in trouble from the backwash from the recession. You can see here

Labour were 10% down on their position in 2012. They are moving

backwards. No question about that. Conservatives were doing pretty

badly in 2012. They are not moving forwards. Liberal Democrats down 2%.

And again, that purple column, 11% up for UKIP. Greens up a bit as

well. The 2012 comparison is a worrying one for Labour. It suggests

they are going backwards. Where they can rejoice and celebrate is the

capital city. This is the map of London. You can

see the changes if I flash the gains. We have Croydon, Fulham,

Hammersmith and Redbridge. What is interesting is if you have a look at

a comparison between the votes in London and elsewhere. These are the

changes in all key wards. Lib Dems doing badly, UKIP doing well. If you

move to London, you can see this. There is not a huge difference.

Labour are still just up a touch on 2010. But they are gaining seats and

gaining councils. Lib Dems and conservatives are both down. What is

helping Labour in London? We must come to this figure that UKIP are

not storming it in London. They are up 7% but not causing the kind of

trouble as elsewhere. Once we factor in the London results to the English

council elections tonight, it looks a bit better for Labour.

I think we can now be joined by Ed Balls, the Shadow Chancellor. Did

you hear of the key figure that Labour is slipping backwards,

regardless of where you are, from where you were in 2012? Is that

rather disconcerting for you? That is the reality of this very strong

UKIP vote we have seen right across the country. It is a challenge for

all political parties. As Jeremy pointed out, since 2010, it has been

disastrous for the Lib Dems and the Conservatives. We have made gains

but not enough yet. The fundamental question will be do we want to

change or more of the same in this country? These results show, and the

UKIP fault says this, though Cameron and Osborne line to stick with them

is not credible across the country. We have more work to do the sure we

have the policies to deliver change. It is a big challenge for us and we

can do better next year. But look at those Tory percentages. They are in

real trouble. We must compete to show that unlike UKIP we are the

party for change with real policies to make a difference. Were useful to

wake up to the challenge UKIP opposed to Labour? Ken Livingstone

just said so. I don't think that is quite right. Everybody is taken

aback by quite how much they made gains across the country, partly

from Labour. But where I am in Wakefield, the Tory voters

collapsing the UKIP. The reality is this. UKIP reflects... Don't forget,

on when people voted in the European elections. People want tough

controls on immigration and reform in Europe. We have been making those

arguments and we must do so more loudly over the next year. The

Conservatives say there is no cost of living crisis and they have

failed on immigration. Their party is divided and in chaos. For the

next election, can we show that we have the policies and Ed Miliband's

leadership to do that? I think we can. There are people in Labour who

feel that you can't with Ed Miliband. They wonder why Labour is

losing to UKIP in Sunderland, it's extraordinary. Good news for Labour

in Ipswich, Peterborough, Hastings, Amber Valley. We are doing better

than people expected us to do in southern seats but now there is a

challenge in the North. Especially in areas where we are clearly the

majority party in areas where you had a tight fight between the Tories

and Labour, and people have gone to UKIP. In my area, people want to

know that we will have tougher controls on immigration, that you

won't be able to work here and send benefits back it up the country. ``

out of the country. This is all happening in a context of David

Cameron saying he would take immigration down the tens of

thousands but hasn't. Labour can be credible on all of these issues in

the general election fight. Cameron also said it would be an election

that gave him the thumbs up on the economy. You think UKIP is winning

votes from Labour because of immigration? They are winning votes

from all parties because people feel angry that things are not working in

a fair way for them. It could be energy prices, jobs, income, the way

the banks have acted. But it is also that people think at the moment we

do not have the right kind of border controls and immigration controls

and they want reform in Europe. All of us must say it loudly and clearly

that to walk away from Europe, which is Nigel Farage's policy, which

would be reform. We must have tougher controls on borders and the

way the labour market works, benefit rules, and controls on new countries

joining Europe and working in our country. I think we can win those

arguments. Members of the coalition are listening here in the studio. I

would like to give them a chance to counter what you have said. The core

issue we are trying to address is why have you done so well? We must

understand that. It is a mixture of things. A general protest. Economic

conditions have been tough although they are now approving. There is an

anti`politician issue going back to expenses. This is common in Europe

and other parts of the UK. Our leader, to give him credit, has

taken those issues and tried to argue directly with UKIP. I think we

have not got the results but he has gained respect for dealing with

these issues. I don't think Labour is ever going to be remotely

credible again as standing as a party that controls immigration. It

quadrupled when they were in power. People feel they are not being

listened to on Europe and they want to have their say and that is why we

must all admit to having a referendum on Europe after the next

election. At the moment, the Conservatives are the only party

willing to do that. Will you now recognise that you have it wrong and

that you need to commit to getting a referendum on Europe after the next

election and will you support as putting a bill through parliament

before the next election to guarantee the British public will

have that referendum? It is a great irony to be challenged to match the

policies of the Conservatives, which has been utterly trounced in these

elections by UKIP. People do not believe what the Conservatives are

promising. First of all, on your immigration point, you promised

immigration into the tens of thousands. It is over 200,000. Your

credibility collapse and you weakened our borders. We are saying

we should get proper controls which work. In the next Parliament, we

will have a referendum if there is any transfer of powers to Brussels.

That is our guarantee. We do not think that is a likely outcome but

if so we will have a referendum. Economically, promising a referendum

in 2017, come what may, whatever negotiation, it will pit of

investment and jobs and damage the country. People in our country don't

believe you, which is why, across the country, they have not voted

Conservatives, but UKIP. There is a Tory councillor in my constituency

who will lose her job tonight. It is between Labour and UKIP because the

Tory vote has collapsed to UKIP. I want to bring you the deputy leader

of UKIP who is in Westminster. Nigel Farage says you have set the Fox in

the hen house. Are you hearing them scattering in panic? I think we have

had a pretty decent morning with just over a third of councils

counted now. We set an internal target of getting 100 seats and I

think we are on target to do better. There is a serious problem in this

country, a disengagement between people and politicians at

Westminster. Labour, for example, lost 5 million voters since 1997.

These people are low hanging fruit for UKIP who are looking for

something new and something which will give them opportunities. You

see low hanging fruit and there is disengagement from politicians. If

you are going to become a serious party at Westminster, you will

become just like the other politicians at Westminster. If we

want to get out of the EU, we must win seats at Westminster and that's

why these elections are important. Over the past couple of years, UKIP

has taken local elections seriously because we are following the Paddy

Ashdown model to get into local councils first and creator

bridgehead to target Westminster. You must have some policies first.

You won't get elected by saying the electorate, none of the other

parties. This has been about Europe and equally local elections. If you

think Britain will be more free and strong outside Europe, we will put

together our policy groups and come up with policies to be launched at

the National conference in September. Actually, UKIP support

seems to be from people who are opposed to immigration, not just

Europe. UKIP support comes right across the board, whether it is

people who are disenchanted with what has happened to immigration

since 1997. Labour allowed 4 million people to come into the country and

last year alone 212 people came here, equal to a city the size of

Hull. What would you say the Ed Balls about his claim that Labour is

on its way and has the answers on the economy and that the Tories

failed to control immigration and labour will. When it comes to

immigration, I think he is on the moonshine. The fact is, whilst we

are in Europe, we cannot control who does and doesn't come to our

country. We should have a points `based system like Australia whereby

if you have the skills we need then you can come to work and it

shouldn't matter where in the world you're from. If you are going to win

the argument, you either win them within the European Union or you

walk away. The problem with walking away, Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Beck

International companies will take jobs to other countries because we

can't go it alone an hour on. You can have the mobility of labour,

proper controls, border controls as well, controls on the way in which

benefits are moved around the country and get the benefits of

Europe but also the reform and controls. I think walking away is a

disaster. What I say to UKIP is that in the next year what I want to do

is sit down and properly debate the economy with George Osborne, Vince

Cable and the UKIP spokesman on the economy will stop let's debate the

details, and the NHS, and taxation. But where are their spokespeople?

Where are their policies? Labour says we have policies for change.

UKIP say they have a desire for change but other than walking out of

Europe there are policies are a bit barmy. Let's have the debate and

then the country can decide whether UKIP stands for the right kind of

change or whether Labour can win the argument. Paul says you have to wait

until the summer. Then you can have the debate. There will be a lot of

scrutiny of this year's UKIP conference. UKIP have done well

today. They are clearly touching a nerve. There is clearly a desire for

change. The question for the country in a general election is who has the

policies for that change. We know it is not the Tories or will bewrasse.

Is it really UKIP. I want to ask Vince Cable something

about this. This idea people are disaffected by politicians as a

class and that's why they've gone to UKIP. Do you accept that? If it is

true, is there anything you can do about it? It is part of the story.

It is a question of cleaning up our act. Parliament's done a lot to do

that. We're still dealing with the legacy problems before the last

election. The real problem is what I mentioned earlier. We've been

through the biggest economic crisis in our lifetime. A lot of people

have been hurt. A lot of people see this due to forces beyond their

control. In some cases they are looking for scapegoats which is why

they look at the immigration issue. You have politics of identity. You

see it in France, Scandinavia, ol donned and everywhere else. UKIP are

muscling in on this combination of things. Hostility to foreigners,

hostility to politicians and general anger about the crisis. What we have

to do is making the patient case for sensible economic policies in a

progressive environment on tax which is where we disagree with the

Conservatives. We are now reconstructing the economy after

this appalling crisis. The banging system's been rebuilt and reformed.

In a year's time people will listen to those arguments. Let's look at

this anger, as it was expressed, last night and in today's results.

We've past the halfway mark on councils.

We've had half of the councils in. Liberal Democrats will be faintly

relieved the UKIP story's the headline. If you look at their story

overnight, not at all good for them. I'll take you inside and show you

what that means. A quarter of their councils have gone. We haven't the

full results from Kingston. Their coalition partners have taken over

that. Mike Hancock resigned, the whip, stood as an independent. UKIP

have made the incursion here taking it away from the Liberal Democrats.

It is now in no overall control. Not a great night for them there. I'll

show you the gains and losses in terms of what the Conservatives have

seen disappear tonight. You can see a lot of these places are in areas

of Essex. Parts we called Mondeo man, patronisingly. Those are where

the UKIP story is coming in. Taking their share of the result. Amber

Valley will be a good result for Labour. A lot of key marginal

constituencies. Old mining territory. They will have been

pleased to take this from the Conservatives. You can see what

happened overnight. A simple change. We can't see the share of the vote.

We don't know if UKIP has played a part here. Labour up, the

Conservatives down. We haven't mentioned the Greens much tonight. I

can take you into Solihull. The Conservatives have retained Solihull

on the Labour target list. Fake failed to make any inroads here. ``

Labour failed to make any inroads here. The Greens along with the

Liberal Democrats, are now the main party of opposition on the council

to the Conservatives. They will be pleased to see some of those shoots

coming through here. I'd like to go to Winchester and

join Peter Henley, our Political Editor for the south Winchester,

Portsmouth, Eastleigh, what's the story? You join us at quite a tense

time here at Winchester. The Liberal Democrats have been doing better.

This is a story for the Liberal Democrats. They've been counting on

a final recount on a critical ward here. They are neck and neck between

the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives. This is a vital

constituency for the General Election. Counting each vote

carefully one by one. They could have been 50ed notes they've been so

careful over each vote for the candidate here. It could decide the

outcome between the two coalition partners. Some good news for Liberal

Democrats. Some good news for Labour here. This looks like they've taken

in Conservative heartland area a couple of extra seats. Taken #24e78

up to maybe `` taken 'em up to maybe three or four. High turnout, over

50%. UKIP looking very feddup, disillusioned saying they didn't get

any traction for their message in this more affluent part of

Hampshire. Ier me?

We've talked about the way in which the results in councils might affect

the General Election next year. Let me show you our map. We've tried

to take key wards and council seats and bundle them into parliamentary

constituencies and see if there's any message here for the many

parties as they go into the General Election. Let me take you into our

virtual House of Commons. We will bring on a graph which shows you the

key wards. The share in key wards. First of all, we'll show you this.

This is the percentage share, change on 2010. I made the comment Labour

did pretty badly only up 4%. Conservatives down. UKIP up 14%.

Liberal Democrats down 13%, Greens up 3%. Let's just isolate the key

ward share and only look at marginal constituency wants which are held by

the Conservatives or Labour. The idea here that we've heard from

Labour people through the day and night is that actually, these are

places where they are stronger. In fact, if you look at this, you can

see actually, they are only up 3%. They are ups less, Labour, than

2010. Conservatives no good news. They are down as well. But down by

just about the same or less. The UKIP surge is no different. Still

strong in those and the Liberal Democrats as in so many places but

not apparently Winchester, having a nightmare. If you look at these

seats, hear this line in Conservative marginals Labour has

the strength to power through. Not the case according to our key wards.

They are not doing as well in the marginals that they need. We'll

focus on the Liberal Democrat story here in the same way. Let's look at

key wards. These are the figures across all the key wards. We see

those not huge changes for Labour and the Conservatives since 2010.

Election year, of course, the Liberal Democrats down 13% since the

coalition took power. The Liberal Democrats more than any other party

say, what did we hear a few hours ago, where we work we win. The

question is whether protecting their vote better in

seats they hold. We isolated the key wards to Liberal Democrat seats, the

places where they need their vote to turn out. Look at this. Even worse.

They are suffering a bigger drop, the Liberal Democrats, in seats they

hold. There is no protection that we can see against the flow of these

results when it comes to those constituencies the Liberal Democrats

hold where they tell us again and again they campaigned better and

stronger. David. Which of those seats, which

constituencies are you thinking about where the Liberal Democrats

are in? We are talking about the seats where they are in the House of

Commons. The 50 or 60. Down on the south coast, we see easterly which

has returned a Liberal Democrat council. But the places where the

Conservatives are pushing, they are not as well protected as they

necessarily tell us. Where might they lose? The areas where the

Liberal Democrats are struggling where they have MPs are London. It

seems to be Brent, lost a whole load of councillors in Brent. Kingston.

That went to the Conservatives. Outside of London, they are not

doing that badly in those areas where they have MPs. Colchester, Bob

rustle. In London, they are taking a hit. I think that's because they did

well last time because of an anti`Blair, anti`Iraq war vote which

went straight from Labour to the Liberal Democrats. Labour campaigned

hugely aggressively in London against the Liberal Democrats. They

are clawing those seats back. In Hornsey and Wood Green her seat is

at risk? Alarming for you, Vince? No necessarily when you look at the

detail. It is quite a small swing. The London seats were all fought on

the same day as the General Election. They are coloured by what

happened then. There are places like easily and Colchester. In

Birmingham, where we have Yardley, up against Labour, an inner city

seat, did extremely well. There are places we've done badly. We'll have

to work out to hold them. Others less so. John Curtis says you did

badly in Yardley. You will ahave to argue with him? We'll have to look

at the detail. Sadique, figures for Labour showing a gigs appointing

increase, backwards in some cases. Labour made gains from the Liberal

Democrats and Conservatives. Amber Valley great example of gains from

the Conservatives. Brent, Haringey will have no Liberal Democrat

council at all. People like Katherine West and Dawn Butler will

win back seats next year. Jeremy referred tote 3 or 4 or 5%.

There are a number of seats where Conservative or Liberal Democrat MPs

where we're second. There are double digits or three digits. Those 3 or 4

or 5% swings mean we can win most or all of the targets which have which

gives us an overall majority next year.

Oncurt Is can you three light on this? `` John Curtis. Argument about

who really suffers under the figures who really suffers under the figures

that Jeremy Vine has been showing. Particularly whether Labour's doing

as well as it should be at this stage. Perhaps... ? These things

are, mine is a subjective judgment. They should be having clearly

advancing far more than the Government. The Government should be

well ahead. Recovering from their last general election defeat. We

usually anticipate in the last months of a Parliament, the

Government often recovers ground. If you make that assumption, the fact

the Labour Party have only advanced a vote share in our key wards by 3

or 4 points since 2010 and have clearly fallen back since 2012 does

not strike me, at least, as obvious progress of the kind that

oppositions that have gone on to win general elections have previously

made. Sadique? John, if you factor in the areas we are trying to win

seats. 2012 inSerb cities, this year, which is the same as next four

years, if you factor in where our 106 targets or we are well on course

to win those seats. Sadique, as Jeremy pointed out, if you look at

what happened in key wards in crucial Conservative key areas

there's no evidence you are performing. Amber Valley. Individual

seats across the piece. Justine, The bottom line is every opposition

coming into power has done that from being the largest party in local

government. The Conservatives are still the largest party in local

government after this election not Labour.

We have to leave it there. The One O'Clock News, it is time for that.

We'll be back after the news for more from this election centre in an

hour's time. Rejoin us then at 2.00. Until then, goodbye.

More showers to come for some for the remainder of today. Others, it

is looking drier and brighter than this time yesterday. Let's look at

the