Local - Part 4 Vote 2014

Welcome to the BBC's election centre or welcome back if you are addicted

to election results. We have plenty more results to come this afternoon.

The results, as you will know, so far, have been pretty rough for

David Cameron's Conservatives. They've been losing councillors and

key councils in London and the Midlands. The Liberal Democrats have

had an even worse time. They've lost around a third of the seats they

were defending last night. Looks as though they're heading for another

pretty terrible performance. Labour have gained council seats, but not

as many as the experts say they should in the year before a general

election. As an opposition supposedly heading for victory. Of

course, the party with most to talk about and the biggest mouth in

politics at the moment, Nigel Farage's UKIP picking up votes and

seats right around the country. So this afternoon we are going to be

taking in more results from around the country. We have reporters at

councils in Harrow, Labour hoping to regain control. They had a split on

the council there. Labour's been doing well in London. Plymouth in

the West Country, which was a Labour gain two years ago, hoping to

consolidate control. UKIP, though, hoping to take seats there. And up

in Manchester we will be there. Labour dominate, the question is

whether the Liberal Democrats can hold on to any of their seats? In a

moment I am going to be talking to our panel. It's changed now, senior

politicians have dared to come here to the studio and talk about the

horror of what's happened or in some cases triumph. But we will come to

them in a moment. First, let's have the picture as it is now, Emily.

Bring us up to date. 98 councils have been declared, we

are two-thirds of the way through the counting tonight. This is the

scoreboard as you can see. For the first time in England we have a

proper full party political system. UKIP, the insurgents have crossed

that 100 councillor mark now, looking like serious players. Labour

will, I suspect be slightly disappointed with that result so

far. Losses for the Conservatives of 133.

For the Lib Dems, proportionially much worse, down 151. Let me take

you to some places that have been won and lost overnight and today.

The gains for Labour. You can see a pattern emerging.

They're doing better in and around London.

Cambridge, this one from the Lib Dems will be a triumph. Hammersmith

perhaps their biggest Tory scalp of the night, reversing that one.

And taking it with 11 councillors, seeing that drop of 11 to the

Conservatives. Amber Valley, very important in a

parliamentary level. There are a few key marginals here which means they

can say they're gaining in places that will be fundamentally important

next time around. Thurrock, an interesting one to see them not hold

on to tonight. If I take you to places that the Conservatives are

losing, you will see a lot of these Essex - places around Essex have

gone to no overall control, and that's the UKIP factor. We are

finding out UKIP are doing well where there are not just two parties

but three, they're able to split the vote better and get not just share

but seats. Basildon, they've done well. Maidstone, Kent. They've

started to build in to that Tory vote and take those out of control.

We will have plenty more, interesting regional variations we

will bring you. Thank you, Emily. We will bring

bringing you the results, some started this morning, some finished

counting early this morning. You may be watching with your computer or a

smartphone and if you are, you can follow all the results online, as

well as hearing what we do here. That's where you can watch the

debate unfold and you can also follow us on social media.

Now, let's just have a brief news bulletin and we will be back here to

talk about all of this. The news, first of all.

Good afternoon. The main story here is the UKIP lead leader Nigel Farage

saying that the main political parties are running scared after his

party made significant gains in local councils in England. Labour

didn't do as well as it hoped. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats

lost dozens of seats. With nearly two-thirds of seats now counted, our

political correspondent Iain Watson looks at the story so far. This

report contains some flash photography.

He promised a political earthquake and even though the party hasn't won

control of any councils they've done well enough to send shockwaves

through the more established parties with around a quarter of the vote in

areas where they stood candidates they caused upsets from Essex to

Yorkshire, depriving the Conservatives in Basildon and Labour

in Thurrock. It's just a process vote t will go away. They said it in

2009, they said it after the English County elections last year. After

this result they'll say it's a protest. It looks like a permanent

protest. The performance provoked calls from some Conservatives for a

pact at the next general election. But the Prime Minister dismissed

this. We are the Conservative Party. We don't do pacts and deals. We are

fighting all-out for a win at the next election. Last night we lost

some good councillors but our next election. Last night we lost

share was up from last year. One of the councils the Conservatives lost

was Croydon in London and a former leader blamed UKIP for letting

Labour in. Obviously we are disappointed. We lost seats tonight

to Labour. But if you look at the Labour vote it hasn't moved

dramatically. What's happened is that UKIP has taken votes from us. I

think there will be a lot of people waking up today in Croydon today and

finding out they've a Labour council because they voted UKIP. The clear

winner of the council elections so far has been Labour, gaining around

150 seats. They performed particularly well in areas where

UKIP are weak. Here in Cambridge and in London. The Labour leader said

people had voted for change but recognised UKIP posed a challenge

for all parties. Across the country you have seen people voting for

Labour to make that change happen from Croydon to Hastings to

Cambridge. You also saw some people turning to UKIP. I am determined

that over the next year we persuade them that we can change their lives

for the better. But so far Labour's vote is up by around three points on

their performance at the last general election. The Conservatives

lost more than 100 councillors and had some consolation seeing Labour

off in Swindon and claiming victory against the Lib Dems in Kingston.

Nick Clegg conceded there had been some losses to his coalition

partners. It's never easy to see dedicated hard-working Liberal

Democrat councillors lose ground. But actually I think in the areas

where we have MPs, where we have good organisation on the ground and

can get our message across we are doing well. Based on their

performance in the council elections, UKIP are confident of

doing well when the results of the European elections are announced on

Sunday night. If they send more tremors through the political

establishment, then the more traditional political parties will

have to decide how to respond. Should they move closer to UKIP's

territory on Europe and immigration? Or should they stand their ground?

In other news, the world famous Glasgow School of Art Rennie

McIntosh building is on fire. Witnesses say the fire began in the

basement. Smoke can now be seen on the roof and drifting across the

city. The new building next door has been evacuated.

The former BBC broadcaster Stuart Hall has been sentenced to

two-and-a-half years in prison for two counts of indecently assaulting

an underage girl. He is already in prison for indecent assault. The new

sentence will run consecutively. Hall, who is 84, was found guilty of

one count of indecent assault last week. At the beginning of the trial

he had admitted indecently assaulting the same girl when she

was 13. An RAF search team will continue

looking for four missing British yachtsmen in the Atlantic until late

tonight. The four haven't been heard from since their vessel is presumed

to have sunk last week. The US coastguard resumed a search on

Tuesday but says it will end its operation overnight if nothing has

been found. Those are the main news stories so

far. Back to David. Thank you, Jane. So in the studio

now let me introduce our guests, Patrick oh Flynn, the director of

communications for UKIP and is actually standing in the east of

England as their top of the list candidate. Michael Douglas, from the

Cabinet Office. Eric Pickles, Secretary of State for communities

and local Government. Patrick, could I start with you, you

heard our reporter saying you have to do well or you are expecting to

do well on Sunday with the European elections. Do you think this means

you are going to come out top? Well, the book-makers seem to place us a

strong favourite, I am wary of saying before the result comes out.

It looks promising. I was expecting us to get - am expecting us to get a

higher share of the votes in the Europeans than in locals, I haven't

yet seen a projected national share in these. But in any event, we are

optimistic and it looks good. We haven't done our projection national

share yet. We will do it later when we have enough of the key wards in

showing how the whole of the country would have voted. Well, England, not

Scotland, of course, where they've had no elections today or Wales.

Just tell me this, we have heard a lot of talk from the other parties

about how you are the new dustbin, the disaffected, you don't have any

policies, except get out of Europe. And that it will all wither on the

vine come the general election. Well, I think for the first thing is

to say the other parties are foolish to base their future expectations on

that assumption. I think we are in a position where

the British people are taking a look at us. They're delighted we are

offering an alternative. But we would indeed be complacent if they

think we can run around with our arms in the air singing we are the

champions. We have work to do on our own weaknesses and must build on our

strengths F the other parties expect us just to fade away, people like me

will be working very hard over the summer to make sure that when we

have our party conference up in Doncaster in South Yorkshire, one of

our new strongholes, we have some interesting -- strongholds, we have

interesting things to say about the domestic agenda which will give the

public the idea we are taking a chance and we are progressing. Eric

Pickles, you are an Essex man, you must be dismayed by the inroads UKIP

has made in the east coast of Britain. Obviously I am sorry to see

a lot of good Conservative councillors go down and I am - I

recognise UKIP has a strong base within Essex and the east of London.

I confidently predict that you will be elected on Sunday. Before you go

to Strasbourg and make all our lives that little bit better. What is it

about Essex and that part of England that finds UKIP appealing and the

Tories so unappealing? There was a lot of churning, I mean, we did take

more seats than UKIP in Essex. There were fights between us and Labour.

Some we won, some we lost. Fights between us and Lib Dems, some we

have won. You are not top dog exactly at the moment, are you?

Well, strangely at the end of this parliament we will have had

something which I think is virtually unique, we usually are wiped out,

party Government's always wiped out in local Government, at the end of

this parliament we will be the largest party in local Government. I

don't believe that's ever happened before. What about the in-roads

they're making on - we have seen the breakdown of where the UKIP vote is

coming from and you no doubt know the statistic that 60% of the people

who are voting UKIP or voting UKIP yesterday said they will stay with

UKIP and won't do what happened previously when they went back to

the Tories? I saw that poll and I think it's taken from us and also

from Labour and from the Liberal Democrats. More from you. I accept

that. It's up to us to be able to give a clear message, a long-term

economic plan. Basically people in Essex had to go through four very

difficult years after Labour's great recession and the effects of our

economic policy hasn't really been felt. This time next year hopefully

people will feel they've got a few more bob in their pocket and be more

cheerful with what we have done. There seems to be more do it than

that, a lot of the reporting on the doorstep and from candidates, from

MPs out campaigning of all parties is that it's to do with the

political class. It's to do with you people and a kind of disaffection

with that. It's not just us, it's you, as well. It's about a

Metropolitan elite that have a particular view about politics.

People from Essex are practical people. I think if we can

demonstrate the difference that we have made, if we can perhaps listen

a little bit more on the doorstep, I am very confident that when we are

sat in the equivalent of this studio just short of a year from now, that

we will have persuaded those people who have voted UKIP to vote

Conservative. It will be a straight choice. What have you not been

hearing? I think we need to offer reassurance. I think we have to

offer assistance. And persuasion also in terms of the difference we

have made to the Government of this country, especially in terms of not

just tackling the deficit but ensuring that they have better job

prospects and the West Indies have a better job prospect. Michael

Douglas, you have done well in London. You have taken Hammersmith

straight from the Tories. Yet our statistics show that you slipped

back from where you were in 2012 and you have not kept a forward momentum

going and indeed we have seen UKIP taking seats and votes at your

expense in the north, in wrath ram, for instance, in Sunderland, in Hull

as well, in the east. What is going on? We always look at the marginal

seats, the target seats that we know we have to win to get a majority the

next time. You look at that, you say to yourselves, look, can we get a

majority the next time? I think that the Tories are making the gain that

they need to in the seats that they are targeting, no, they are not. We

have gone through the list, outside of London, Cannock Chase, Lincoln,

Peterborough, Basingstoke, Enfield in Croydon, of course, Ipswich...

These lists are getting boring at this stage in the afternoon.

Everybody comes out to read a list! But all of the gains, I think this

is boring but it is another C, and that is not boring, that is progress

made. But it is the overall picture I am

looking at. Not the list thankfully with have gained on. Everyone can

play that game. Only Labour can play that game of

seats needed to win to form a majority.

OK. Let's have a look at UKIP and where it is doing well. Jeremy, can

you show us something about that? Where is UKIP strong, or where does

it have a good chance a year from now? We were listening to Patrick

talking, to have a closer look at this with UKIP and how the map has

spread. There is the map. 151 councils but let's focus in on UKIP

and look at how they are doing. Here is the first graph to show you

UKIP's performance. We are looking at sharing key wards north and south

of England. The classic thing we have been told that UKIP do well

against the Conservatives, therefore in the blue areas they are strong.

In the north, Labour is by far the strongest party. UKIP, 18% in these

elections. Move to this graph. This is the area, the south where they

should be strongest in, for the reasons that I gave, they are lower.

The Conservatives, of course the strongest party overall in the

south. So that is a very important graph. It gives strength to what

Nigel Farage said that UKIP is taking votes from parties up and

down the country. taking votes from parties up and

the northern constituencies than in the south. We will come to London in

a second. But this is worth thinking about. Have a look now at two other

comparisons. Two morass. We take a lump lumpy description of the

Midlands and the East. UKIP doing well here. Not as well as in the

north and the south. But 14%. A creditable performance. In an area

with lots of marginals. Move to London, it is not 14% is it? As we

have been saying, they are struggling to make the same kind of

showing in London, 7%. So it is a regional performance by UKIP. The

north/south comparison is good for them. But take an area outside of

London and compare with London, there is something going wrong in

London. So let's have a closer look at the London vote. Let's do it

through the prism of wards that are more diverse than your average ward,

more ethnic mine ority voters in them. So here are the figures for

the key wards. This is the figure tonight of UKIP for 13% across the

piece. Now we say what about wards or

council areas where there is a population that is less than 50%

white. So very diverse, I should add one rider, we are not dealing with a

large number of wards, we are just taking the information that we have

got, here UKIP are down 4%. So a good way down from where they are

across the board. Performing really well in lots of places. That

explains the London vote, London being the most diverse area of the

country. One more way of showing it it you, one more comparison, change

in key wards on 2010. These are wards more than 90% white. So look

at these particular wards, you can think of places in Essex, what is

happening to UKIP there? 20% up on 2010.

So, we have broken down the voter bit there. There are places where

there is a large contingent of ethnic minority voters, UKIP

struggle. Remember we are not looking at that many wards here. But

there is a plus, as they have done well in the north. And given what we

have heard about in years, that is really pretty remarkable.

Our pecks pert this afternoon is Professor Jane Green from Manchester

University, in charge of the British Election Study. That tell us

everything that we need to know about British elections. On UKIP,

what do you read into that? That it... What kind of appeal is UKIP

making? I think what is fascinating about what germ write was saying is

that UKIP's appeal looks from the results so far in, as though it is

doing better in the north. So let's think about the implications.

Everybody is thinking about next year. About what we wind out today,

Monday, after the European election results, and what it tell us for the

general election next year. What the study shows is that we are seeing a

return to how things were in the 1980s. When the Labour support was

stronger in the north and the Conservative support stronger in the

south. Interesting parallels. Periods of austerity, cutbacks,

difficult times in the north, not felt as strongly in the south. So

the UKIP successes in the north have to translate in an area where Labour

is really strong if they are to get any MPs. That is very unlikely.

Whereas UKIP's successes in the south have to translate and knock

out the Conservatives. That is becoming unlikely. So looking at the

north/south divide for the results for UKIP, yes it is true that UKIP

look like they are making gains in the north, we did not expect that to

be the case. I expected it in middle England and less so in London but in

order to get MPs in Parliament next year, which looks unlikely, they

have to overcome the strength of the Labour in the north and the

Conservatives in the south. Patrick O' Flynn? I did not realise

it had been such an awful night for us. The key thing is clearly

cracking first-past-the-post in a big constituency for Westminster.

Now what we managed to do this time, never mind the sweeping north and

south averages is to get clusters of councillors. We have seen it along

the Thames Estuary, in Essex, in Rotherham in particular. We are

following the Paddy Ashdownblueprint to get yourself established in the

local authority and get the foot soldiers out and a campaign team,

you get visibility, used to the local electorate thinking that they

are winning here. So I think that is good news. We gets lots of data from

the results. That will allow us to compile the key targets, the key

target seats. You are saying what Jeremy said that the 19% is

misleading as there are peaks and troughs in the north and you are

concentrating on the peaks, you are saying that Ashdown did for the

Liberal Democrats? I think he did. So targeting is really important for

us. Is he right? He is right. But if

UKIP is going to get a member of Parliament to Westminster, there

must be a strong concentration of the vote. But let's remember how

long it took the Green Party to achieve that. They now have

Caruanaow line Lucas in the Green Party it took them many years to get

the concentration of support in one area. I am not saying it is

impossible. We are in a world in which making predictions between now

and next year is for the food hardy but still, it has to happen. For

both sides of the Thames Estuary, we are getting the concentrations.

Every political party, you heard Michael's list, we have the 40/40

campaign. We recognise the Conservative Party problems, winning

the possible ar vote but not winning the election. Michael Howard beat

Tony Blair in the popular vote but Tony Blair had a huge majority. So

it is in the wards, in the marginals that we are fighting it out, seeking

to really connect with the electorate.

You haven't won any councils, have you? Taking controls of councils at

our stage in development in ungo is unrealistic. We are looking for the

clusters of councils and seeing it. We are not even halfway through the

results. We are, we are two thirds of the

way. OK.

For Labour, what is the message from what Jane has said and what Jeremy

has shown? I rattled off the list of marriage a malseats we are winning.

That is obviously vital for forming a majority the next time. But

equally, I am a Barnsley MP, I grew up in Doncaster. I am a South

Yorkshireman, I don't want UKIP doing well in South Yorkshire. While

we can draw heart on doing well in the marginals, it puts us on course

for Downing Street but we have to face up to the work we have to do in

some of our heartlands. And to explain, whether you knock on the

door they explain, whether you knock on the

In large parts of the explain, whether you knock on the

means Labour. But we have to face up in some areas that

means Labour. But we have to face up for this to do

means Labour. But we have to face up going back very many years, decades

in parts. The old industries have gone, the jobs that have come they

are not enough, they are too low paid... Labour is meant to be good

at coping with that. For a 20-years old party to steal your clothes in

that situation, that is where Labour works? Clearly we are dealing with

low pay, tackling immigration, all of those things but we have work to

do in communicating that. And to say to our people and the working-class

communities, be careful what you vote for. David Cameron has cut

taxes for millionaires, UKIP will give them even bigger tack cuts.

UKIP will charge you to see your GP. Well, we have work to do is

political code for we have not hacked it this time, isn't it? It

means we have made good progress. We have work to do means we have

failed? No, not at all. Like all parties we recognise we have to work

harder, listen more and make further progress.

Hanging on, we are to get reports from outside of the box we are in.

Let's go to Crawley it is held by the Conservatives. Labour are hoping

to take control of it. Louise Stuart is there waiting for us. Good

afternoon. Well, David, they have in the last

half an hour taken control of the council here. Labour pushed really

hard here. In fact they chose to launch their south-east campaign

here with the Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls. Ed Miliband has been here

several times in the past few months. This is a key target in the

south-east. They have surpassed the expectations. Needing three wards to

take back control of the authority. They gained four. They are obviously

delighted. The new leered, Peter Lamb is 27, one of the youngest

council leaders in the country. He said it proves that Labour can win

back in the south-east. I am not sure that is the entire picture,

although they did increase the share of vote in Hastings, they have not

made inroads to some of the other areas in the south-east but no

doubting they push hard in Crawley and have taken back the council for

the first time since May 2006. This will be a key battle ground in the

next general election. In the last few weeks we have been bombarded by

big hitters, William Hague was here a few days ago, Ed Miliband was

here. They know that they have to win this seat, Labour, to prove to

get over their southern discomfort, if you like, and win back here in

the south-east. Thank you very much.

Now we are joined by our Political Editor for Yorkshire and

Lincolnshire, he is in Grimsby. Tim, tell us what has been going on in

the councils there. How UKIP has been doing in Rotherham, Lincoln?

What is happening there? The story in the North East Lincolnshire so

far is that UKIP have taken four seats from Labour and one seat from

the Conservatives. Now, UKIP is promising further

gains. North East Lincolnshire is the council area that covers the

former fishing port of Grimsby a Labour voting area and Cleethorpes,

a seaside resort on the east coast that tends to be Conservative

leaning. Both seats are up for grabs. The Tories are defending

Cleethorpes, Labour defending Great Grimsby. The fact you could have

done well here today, UKIP has said that Great Grimsby is a key target

seat for them in next year's general election because the veteran Labour

member Austin Mitchell is stepping down. But the worst case scenario

for Labour here today is that they could lose outright control of this

authority. If they do get back in it would be with a thin majority. Now

this all follows a good night for UKIP in other parts of Yorkshire and

Lincolnshire. Rotherham was the big win for UKIP, even though they did

not win control of the council, taking ten seats from Labour last

night in a traditional Labour heartland. Taking one seat from

Labour in Hull but a big share of the vote, almost 26% in Hull again,

a traditional Labour area. Thank you very much. I want to bring

in a Labour It hadn't had a response. And that

was sometime back. In the light of what's been going on now is that

still your view and what would you say to our Labour MP here about what

Labour should now do? Well, it's not just my view, it's a fact that the

Labour strategy was not to attack UKIP. There were lots of private

complaints, not least by the members of the European Parliament,

demanding that we attack UKIP and they were turned down. Some of the

people at the centre of the Labour Party seem to think UKIP doing well

now will be good because it will damage the Conservatives more than

us. The problem with that strategy - this is the watershed, the high

point for UKIP and turnout's not gone up much across the country, the

problem we have is that the reason people have been voting UKIP is

their disenchantment and whether people bother voting at all. That's

our challenge. My view is that the Labour coalition that holds together

the Labour Party isn't broad enough. The viewpoints of people like me are

not properly included and I think they represent a significant part of

the electorate who is disillusioned with the Labour Party. What would

you have like them to have say, what attack wasn't made, what is it you

draw attention to? For example, I suggested that in places like

Rotherham and elsewhere there should have been posters up with Nigel

Farage and his big smiling face with his Margaret Thatcher mug that was

photographed and his quotes on why he supported closing coal mines and

steelworks. Or the fact that he supported cutting the NHS which he

said in January or the fact that he supported bigger cuts in the pension

which he said in January. We should have been on the offensive taking

the battle toll UKIP. I thought it was very dangerous and misguided

strategy and it's backfired. Whose fault? It's the fault of the people

at the top of the Labour Party. Naomis. Ed -- name names. Ed

Miliband and the people at the top of the Labour Party. Called this

wrong in not taking the fight to UKIP. It was a big error, it gave

them space to operate in, in places like Rotherham and the north of

England and the biggest danger with it is it's not then addressing the

issues that quite a lot of Labour voters, including loyal Labour

voters who in places have stayed with Labour this time and will do at

the general election want to hear from the Labour Party. If we don't

do that, we won't win. He is talking about you and people like you.

do that, we won't win. He is talking have known John a long time, he

would struggle to put me in the pet -- Metropolitan elite. You are at

the heart of the project. I am in the Shadow Cabinet. Exactly. He is

not in the Shadow Cabinet. I see someone who is who left school with

no qualifications, I see Emma, brought up by a single mum on a

council estate. This kind of caricature, it's a nice line from

John who is a mate of mine, come on, do me a favour. Where John has a

point rightly, all of us have to work harder and I would say this for

all the mainstream parties in terms of connecting with the public. There

is a anti-politics mood out there. That's not something that started in

the last three weeks of this campaign, that's something over many

years now with turnout declining. John is right, we have to work

harder at connecting with people. In terms of attacking UKIP, if you are

one of my con constituents in Barnsley, lots of ex-miners there,

you do get things through the door telling you exactly what UKIP stand

for. I think it's not quite fair to say that we weren't prepared to

expose UKIP for the policies that they offer. They had a wonderful

time on the BBC, we have had Farage mania on the television. Over the

next 12 months as people scrutinise Farage and UKIP and you found that

in the last few days of the campaign, put him under pressure and

he is found wanting. Is that a a sufficient answer for you, John?

It's not an answer at all. Michael knows well the Labour Party election

strategy was not to attack UKIP and that was a fundamental error both in

this election, but also the danger is that what that says to those

sections of the electorate and lots of people who are concerned about

immigration, who are concerned about Europe, and particularly when it

comes to immigration want the Labour Party if it's in power to do

something about it. John mentions the word immigration and from my

experience by far the biggest motivating factor in Labour to UKIP

switching has been that the traditional British working class

does not want open door immigration in respect of two dozen countries

and more than 400 million people. It's been through it with the

experience where Labour didn't impose controls. It holds it

responsible for - and either Labour gets a grip on the actual content of

that policy, or those voters are going to be open-minded to continue

coming in our direction. I will come back to you. John, before we go on

in the studio here, why do you think they didn't do what you want against

UKIP? Why didn't they take off the gloves and have a fight with UKIP,

what's the motive behind that? It sounds folly. It is. Why? Firstly,

some of them, and I would exclude Michael in this, some of them don't

like talking about immigration. Secondly, and I think equally

dangerously, there are some of them there and they've expressed it to me

in no uncertain terms, think they're playing some kind of clever game

where you shuffle the deck around and if UKIP does quite well but not

well enough, that helps Labour get in. Well that kind of mindset will

not win the general election. We saw that in the tactics and strategy and

that is why on Labour leaflets for the European elections Labour

posters, etc, we choose not to attack UKIP, that was a bad error.

OK. What about the Tories? You didn't attack. Apart from fruitcakes

and all that, and you had to pull back from saying that, you didn't go

for UKIP, did you? I think it's quite - you don't win elections by

knocking seven bells out of your opponent. You win it because you

have a good case to ensure that the British population that kids have

jobs and they have a job and there is some prosperity. I understand why

immigration is a big issue. We had uncontrolled immigration to this

country. We have done our best to push back. Everyone says we joined

the common market, we didn't join this European Union. We want free

trade. There has to be a degree of movement of people. You can't

restrict people to their own boundaries. I have no objection

whatsoever of someone coming to work in this country to pay taxes and

national insurance and help pay for our pensions. What we object to is

people coming on benefits tourism. We have made significant steps to

stop that. What do you make of this argument about how the other party

should have dealt with UKIP, who got it right and wrong? I think the big

surprises of the night are that Labour hasn't done better than we

thought it should. And also the Liberal Democrats have lost more

support than was expected. It's not for me to say what you should have

or shouldn't have done. There is a really important message that is

relevant to all the parties, including UKIP, and that is that,

let's just remember that turnout in this election isn't looking like

it's Soaring, not looking like it's high. Looking like it's normal. That

means that a large proportion of the country are not voting here and they

haven't had their say and we asked people in the British election study

whether or not people think that politicians don't care what people

like them think. 65% of people are saying that. There is an opportunity

for all of the parties to address that and it's not the case that UKIP

support is a lot higher amongst those people who think that

politicians don't speak for them. Yes, it is the case that there

aren't more people than before who now think that Nigel Farage can

speak to them, for them, but it's not the case there is large

majorities of the population that think any of the parties can. There

is a long-term trend that points in that direction. There is more people

who think that none of the parties have something on offer for them.

That's what all the major parties - all the parties I should say, major

and minor parties need to respond to. There is another factor, we have

a fixed term parliament. I was appointed party chairman a year

before the last election. I got ready for about four or five - when

it was going to be called. We know the date and the public knows the

date of the next election. Over the next year people will make their

mind up who they want to run the Government. It won't be about how

much people connect. They want to know who is going to be best to be

Prime Minister. John, we have to move on in a moment. I want to ask

you before we do, would you like to see changes at the top? Do you think

Douglas Alexander should still be in charge of the campaign as election

approaches? Douglas needs to get straight on the train to Scotland

today and make sure we get a resounding referendum victory there.

If that happens, then he should carry on. That's where he ought to

be for the next few months, making sure that Scotland votes in a

Scottish MP in very large proportions to stay in the UK. You

would rather he was sent off to Scotland and wasn't in charge of

Labour's campaign for England, Wales and the rest? If I was Douglas

Alexander I would be Sebbed Sebbeding -- sending myself to

Scotland to ensure my constituency voted in high numbers to stay in the

UK and that's vital that all Labour Scottish MPs are doing that over the

next two months. OK, let's take a pause there and have a look, thank

you for joining us, let's have a look at the Liberal Democrats with

Jeremy. You asked me a question about the

Lib Dem vote and the fact it was diving but it was seen to be more

vulnerable in areas that they held, which is almost the reverse of what

we have seen with the Liberal Democrats before. You said which

seats are in danger? We would have to put things through a machine to

work out the answer. Finally I am answering with specific answers.

Which Lib Dem seats nr danger, if this dive in their vote not only,

Which Lib Dem seats nr danger, if not restricted to non-Lib Dem areas,

it's worse in their own areas? Here is the map just to show sow far.

About 50 councils to go. Let's take you to our virtual House of Commons.

Let's look at specific seats. Over here we are going to list some

Lib Dem seats and see what happens if the kind of voting patterns in

these local elections is transferred to the general election. The first

one, you will recognise this, he was a guest earlier, Vince Cable. That's

his seat. Classic area of Conservative-Lib Dem, back and

forth. Vince Cable took it and has held it

since. What would happen if this was

repeated next year? In this tight two-way marginal the Conservatives

would be back in. He has to rely on name power. Maybe

the lesson of all these results is name power doesn't cut it any more

for the Lib Dems because they're being bashed everywhere. Another

seat, let's have a look. Here we go. Another guest we had in the studio,

Lynne Featherstone. Let's see what's happening in her seat. We talked

about London and UKIP not doing so well in the London area. Look at

UKIP, low down here. If you transfer the local votes into this

constituency she loses by more than 10% to Labour. Again a story of the

Lib Dems not protected in their own strongest areas. For some reason the

anti-Lib Dem effect is accentuated. Another one for you, will this be

somebody who was a guest as well? Seems to be a pattern. This is

Solihull. This again is back and forth. This was Conservative for a

long time. West Midlands, prosperous, it was won back by the

narrowest of margins. The Lib Dems are going to be worried about these

figures. This is not just the Conservatives edging it. This is a

thumping victory for the Conservatives, if it happens and

these local patterns are repeated. They may not be. 23% to them in

their seat. Greens Greens with 14%. One more fou, answering the question

about which Len dems have to sweat the most -- Lib Dems have to sweat

the most about these results. Cambridge. This is an interesting

one. Cambridge got a big student vote. Students are particularly

angry about the reverse on tuition fees proposal which may be what

moved the seat initially. Conservatives pretty much know where

they are here. The Greens on 15%. A margin between Labour and the

Liberal Democrats. So there we are, an answer for you, David, on the

question of where the an answer for you, David, on the

should worry the most. There are quite a few places where MPs will

think that this is now very tricky. I wish you had been able to tell me

that when Vince Cable was here. He is usually sad-faced but he would

have gone gloomy indeed! I could not have given you those two hours ago!

Sorry. It is interesting. We have been

joined by Danny Alexander, a Scottish MP. He does not have local

elections going on. But it is a gloomy picture for the Liberal

Democrats as a whole that we are watching today? Well, the whole does

not bear out. If you look in places like Sutton and Cheam, like

Carshalton, we took a seat from Labour in Redcar. I gather picking

up seats in Cheltenham, Bournemouth, holding back in Kingsley.

By and large, in the places where we are strong, where there is

parliamentary and council strength and where we get the message across,

especially about what we are achieving in Government, cutting

income tax for working people, expanding apprenticeships, so on,

and building the vote. Of course, there are places where we have not

done so well. It is a tragedy for every hard-working Liberal Democrat

councillor, for those who have lost their seats today, that is bad news

for everybody. But Danny, you know as well as I do,

the point of the results, the mass of results across England is not to

say we did OK there... It is what the overall pattern tells us about

what the Liberal Democrats are standing. Where the general election

is just over 11 months away it is there that the problem lies.

Professor Jane Green, what do you say to Danny? Liberal Democrat

supports is more row dust in the general elections but an interesting

thing about the constituencies for next year is of course if we are

think being where the Liberal Democrats may be vulnerable to UKIP,

we have to remember again that UKIP was not in second place or third

place, even, in many parliamentary constituencies last time. There were

about six constituencies where the UKIP came second place. Four were

strong Labour majorities, one a softer Labour majority in Rotherham

where UKIP are doing well. That is one to watch. The other is

Eastleigh, which is a Liberal Democrat-held seat.

But is not the reality, that the Liberal Democrats, if they are to

suffer will suffer at the hands of the Liberal Democrats? That is

interesting. One of the things that we can see obviously is that the

UKIP support is coming, mainly from the Conservatives. Over 50% from the

Conservatives, when we looked the last time but also from the Lib

Demes and from Labour. Where the Liberal Democrat vote is going is to

the Greens. We have not spoken about that yet. But a lot of support going

that party which has not formed a coalition government and that has

not been popular for the Lib Demes, as I am sure that you will know.

Jeremy, you can come in on this. Out of the grass we started to show,

we started to notice the effect, where we expected the Liberal

Democrats to be less damaged in Liberal Democrat areas but they were

more damaged. Maybe your supporters are more angry with you but we

thought what is going on there? The answers to the questions around the

panel, well, Lib Demes are brilliant at campaigning inside their areas,

they zone, target. But this suggests that you are taking a hit. So we now

have this list of seats. That is how we got to that? I understand that.

But I think that I would say that if you are looking forward to the

general election, of course you are right, that is what many people will

be doing, taking the results as a whole, in the places I have

mentioned, and others besides, we still have results to come in. South

Lakeland, Cheltenham, various playerses where the Lib Dems are

strong, I think that in those places we are more than holding our own.

When you talk about not expecting this but if you compare the

performance so far, to the predictions, it looks like we are

doing better than the central forecast was before these local

elections. Of course there are places where we would have liked to

have you been Doncaster. In some places there are national factors,

in some places there are local factors, such as in the Kingston

council for example. But the lesson is where we have parliamentary and

council strength to get the message across consistently, nationally and

at a local level and then we can and are succeeding in persuading people

in sometimes more numbers than before, to vote for us.

It is true that the benchmark for you, you were expected to lose 350

councillors, you are down at the moment 169.

It is also true that the last council election results from the

Lib Demes were extremely bad. So to go down from that level is something

that the opinion polls as a whole may not have predicted. So I do

think it is a bad night. I don't want to us lose a single

councillor. We have brilliant councillors who have done amazing

work. But it is true in Government, in parties, that they tend to see

themselves knocked back in local elections. That is what we have seen

in three years, we are seeing it again perhaps to a lesser extent

here and it shows we have to work harder to get the message across

about how we are rescuing the economy, about how to ensure that

the benefits are being shared. That is something we have to work hard to

get across. All of the losses are painful for

those involved... And for the party nationally. I am sure it is true for

other parties... I want to go to Grimsby and join Austin Mitchell,

the MP who is standing down as the Labour MP. He has watched Labour

losing control of the council. That is the North East Lincolnshire

council, Austin, why has it happened? What is your reaction to

it? What has it led to? Well, we have not actually lost control!

Labour has done better than expected. People were fearing that

we would lose council seats over the whole country but we have gained

about 170. This is not a bad result. You should be concentrating on

UKIP's results, actually. That was more or less as expected. Outside of

London, and UKIP has not done well in London, London is doing better

than the rest of the country, damn it! But outside of London there is a

good deal of discontent, working people, the manual wages have not

increased, the share of GDP going down, the cuts, the local government

services contracted. And a general feeling over the whole country, and

especially so in the north of disgruntlement, we are fed up! You

say that North East Lincolnshire Labour has not lost control but you

are short by one of an overall majority according to the figures.

So you have lost control. It does not mean you will not go on running

the council, I agree, you will do a deal with someone, I don't know who

but you will? Yes. We will continue to run north-east North East

Lincolnshire, despite the opposition that Government is putting in our

way. But the point is not that we control or don't control the area,

it is the fact that the Labour Party has done better than people were

expecting and the fact that UKIP will be a temporary phenomena, that

will split, argue and divide on the council and possibly even in Europe,

so the interesting thing about the election is the fact that the

electorate has said to both main parties, " a plague on both your

houses! " So they have voted for this Millwall party in UKIP. Why?

Because they are fed up. Just for you, this is for you, John

Curtis who I know you believe and trust and understands all of these

things, says that on the figures that have come in, Great Grimsby

will go to UKIP at the general election.

I doubt it. That is not true. That is what he says.

I think personally we in the Labour Party should have offered a

referendum but a referendum now, not the confidence trick that David

Cameron is offering in 2017. That is the same confidence trick we pulled

in 197... 1975. We offered a renegotiation and a referendum. It

won't work. We should have offered a referendum now. Not because it will

win votes but because it is right that the people should be consulted

and should have their say. Do they want this floundering mess called

Europe, which is the low-growth, high on employment black spot of the

world, thanks to the euro, or do they want to trade with the world?

The figures that we have for Great Grimsby are clear. This is the first

parliamentary constituency that we have been able to break down through

the wards. It does show UKIP coming out on top.

Well, this is a hypothetical construct on a surge that is a year

away from the general election. I don't believe it. I think we shall

hold Grimsby, I hope we do. If we don't there will not ab ab-Labour

Government and I think that there will be. I don't want to argue about

hypotheticals, you confront me with the figures in Grimsby, I feel are

distorted at the present moment by the surge of discontent. You felt it

going around. But also it felt like it was an awful day yesterday,

pouring with rain that people were not bothering to turn out and to

vote. The vote was low. Don't project anything on that.

But you would like to see Ed Miliband offer a straightforward

referendum, not like the Harold Wilson one that you were covering as

a BBC reporter at the time with a little titivating ITV. You were

everywhere before you became an MP. You were a little titivating... On

which I voted against membership in 1975.

But you would would like a straight in or out referendum? We did say we

would offer a referendum. We then said, stupidly, in my view, that a

treaty was not a new institution. It was just a lie, it was. In all

honesty we should have offered a referendum.

That diminishes our integrity, I think. But I have to say, I am not

saying we should offer a referendum to win votes. I don't think at that

it would have won votes or stopped the surge to Europe but it would

have made us consistent and honest. Austin Mitchell, #245e67. What do

you -- muchally, thank you very much. What do you say to that?

Austin voted against membership in 1975, the year I was born, he has

been around for a while. He is consistent in his opposition to

Europe. We have set that option up clearly. If there is a transfer of

powers we will have the in and out referendum. But there are two

options, do what David Cameron does, which is to live in total fear of a

bunch of people on the backbenchers and to be constantly, through

weakness, thinking what do we do with referendum? -- UKIP? When do we

give them a referendum? This is a beast. All it does is puts a:

Britain is closed for business sign on the country. You have to do the

right thing by the country. You chose to block a bill that would

have allowed the people of the United Kingdom in 2017 guaranteed a

referendum. You and the Liberal Democrats chose to block that bill

in the House of Lords. I think you should trust the people and give

them a chance. Austin Mitchell made a brilliant case of voting

Conservative in the next election. But referendums are risky for

politicians. If you look at what people would do if they have a

referendum tomorrow on membership of the European Union, 40% would vote

"yes", 40% would vote "no" with the others to make up their minds It is

shocking democracy, as a participant, I think you should

trust the people. Danny Alexander? We are having a referendum in

Scotland in a few months' time. That is the next, the most important vote

I will cast in my political lifetime. The vote to decide on

whether Scotland stays in the UK. It is right to have a referendum.

Why is it OK to give the Scots a view on whether they should remain

in the United Kingdom but not give the whole of the United Kingdom a

chance to say whether they should remain in the European Union? We

have said we would have a referendum in the terms of the legislation that

we have passed in this parliament. We passed a bill for the first time

which means there is a referendum guaranteed the next time and any

time there is a development, a treaty change, something that takes

us deeper into Europe, that's the right way of handling it. We stand

by - Eric and I both voted for this legislation. I think it's the right

way to handle it. You did fight the last general election on an in/out

vote on Europe. It's in the museum, the Lib Dem manifesto. I am grateful

for your support, as always, but what I would say is that the idea

that we should spend the first two years of the parliament in a game of

renegotiation with the European Union, that tries to repatriot

various powers is the wrong way to go about it. When the next time

there is a treaty change, let's have a referendum then. Let's go on.

Oxford have held on to Labour. Now there is a bank holiday coming up on

Monday. We have the European election results on Sunday. We will

be broadcasting until early on Monday morning. We may enjoy the

second half of the bank holiday, so let's look at the weather.

Good afternoon. You are right, it's a bank holiday weekend and of course

that's going to mean the forecast is never particularly straightforward.

This afternoon it's more of what we have been seeing the last few days,

showers causing headaches. Some spots are doing better in terms of

sunny spells. Quite a cluster of heavy showers now pushing out of

central and southern England across the Midlands and they'll head to

Wales for the evening. I think we will see some also affecting parts

of the south-west of England. Generally, the further east you are

the more likely you are to stay dry this afternoon. Much improved across

parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland. For the evening rush hour

look out for the odd heavy downpour across the south-west, it could

produce a lot of rain in a short space of time. Similar story across

Wales and parts of northern England. Generally more cloud around across

northern England. Clouding up across Northern Ireland and light rain in

the east through the evening. A few showers to southern Scotland with

thickening cloud. The east does look much improved on yesterday evening,

lighter winds and there might be cloud but it's dryer. Sunshine for

Yorkshire and Lincolnshire but a risk of storms here. For the

south-east a slim chance of a shower but overall quiet as the afternoon

comes to an end but through the evening again there could be a few

showers and something to bear in mind especially if you are heading

on to the roads. Wales clearer through the small hours. The heavy

rain heads to Northern Ireland. It will be a wet start for the weekend

here, intense rain around first thing on Saturday. But the bonus

will be that rain gets out of the way quickly through the morning. For

the afternoon Northern Ireland not looking too bad along with Scotland.

England and Wales, though, after a respite with

showers again. Scotland and Northern Ireland are

driest and brightest on Saturday. Sunday we shift everything further

north. England and Wales in for a dryer and brighter day. Bank holiday

Monday, still questions about the forecast, perhaps this map is a bit

pessimistic. Some showers to the east, but for many it won't be too

bad a day at all. To sum up the weekend, useable weather for all of

us at some stage but it's the detail that's difficult. Keep up to date on

the website. Now let's keep up to date with the elections, back to

Vote 2014. Thank you very much. Here the

weather stays the same all the time, hot and a bit muggy. So welcome

back. This is the place to be! No rain on the roads here. A lot of

rain on the roads here actually as politicians skid around and we skid

around trying to make sense of the results that we are getting in. We

are getting a clear picture now of how the main parties have been

doing. We are going to be in Harrow in a moment, where Labour are trying

to regain control. They had a split in the Labour group. We will be in

Cheltenham, many other places to come in. Liberal Democrats trying to

hold off a Tory challenge. They also hold the parliamentary seat there

which they'll be keen to see reflected in whatever happens in

Cheltenham. We have a lot more to talk about and more results to come

in. Let's have the news first. David, thank you very much. Good

afternoon. Our main story is that the UKIP leader Nigel Farage says

the main political parties are running scared after his party made

significant gains in local councils in England. Labour didn't do as well

as it had hoped. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats lost dozens of

seats. With about three-quarters of all seats now counted, our political

correspondent Iain Watson looks at the story so far. This report

contains some flash photography. He promised a political earthquake

and even though his party hasn't won control of any councils, they've

done well enough to send shockwaves through the more established

parties. They caused upsets from Yorkshire to Essex, depriving the

Conservatives of control in Basildon and Labour here in Thurrock. The

political class have been comforting themselves, it's just a protest vote

it will go away. They said it in 2009. They said it after Eastleigh.

They said it after the English County elections last year. After

this result they'll say it's a protest. It looks like a permanent

protest. It provoked for a pact at the next general election. The Prime

Minister dismissed this. We are the Conservative Party, we don't do

pacts and deals. We are fighting all-out for a win at the next

election. Of course last night we lost some good councillors but our

vote share was up from last year. Labour clearly gained more seats

than any other party, around 150 and performed particularly well in areas

where UKIP are weak, here in Cambridge. And in London, Ed

Miliband celebrated in Redbridge in the east of the city. The reason we

won here was because of the deep discontent there is in the country

and the deep desire for change. We also know that UKIP made gains in

this election. For some people that discontent with the country, that

desire for change meant they turned to UKIP. But Labour didn't do as

well as expected in some parts of England. The share of the vote is

around three points higher than the general election performance. Some

of their MPs believe the party should be doing better if they're to

form the next Government. The Conservatives have lost more than

140 councillors, they had some consolation in seeing Labour off in

Swindon and claiming victory against the Lib Dems in Kingston in London.

It's never easy to see dedicated, hard-working Liberal Democrats lose

ground. But actually in the areas where we have MPs, where we have

good organisation on the ground, we can get our message across, you

know, we are doing well. Based on their performance in the council

elections, UKIP are confident of doing well when the results of the

European elections are announced on Sunday night. If they send more

tremors through the political establishment, then the more

traditional political parties will have to decide how to respond.

Should they move closer to UKIP's territory on Europe and immigration?

Or should they stand their ground? In other news, the world famous

Glasgow School of Art, Rennie McIntosh building is on fire. Rescue

teams were called at about 12. 30pm. The building was evacuated. Students

have told the BBC the fire began after a projector exploded in the

basement as they were preparing for an end of year show.

The families of four British sailors missing in the Atlantic have gone

into another meeting at the Foreign Office. An RAF search team will

continue looking for the four men until late tomorrow night. The four

haven't been heard from since the end of last week. The US coastguard

says it will end its operation overnight if nothing has been found.

The former BBC broadcaster Stuart Hall has been sentenced to

two-and-a-half years in prison for two counts of indecently assaulting

an underage girl. He is already in prison for indecent assault. The new

sentence will run consecutively, hall, who is 84, was found guilty of

one count of indecent assault last week and had admitted indecently

assaulting the same girl when she was 13.

Thailand's former Prime Minister and her family have been detained by the

military one day after it took power in a coup. There have been small

protests in Bangkok against the coup. Despite a ban on

demonstrations. More than 100 political and military figures have

been ordered to report to the army for face arrest.

Those are the main stories here. Back to David.

Thank you very much. Emily, shall we catch up with councillors and how

things stand against the predictions for the parties and see how well

everybody's doing or how badly? 116 councils in, we are

three-quarters of the way through. This is the scoreboard for the whole

of England. We will show you regional variations later.

Hits being taken by the Conservatives and much worse by the

Lib Dems proportional to what they have. Big gains for UKIP, 129. I

will show you what we have in others. The green Party will be

pleased with results. Since we have Danny Alexander here

we can talk a little about the Lib Dems, the places that they were

defending tonight. This was the list at the beginning of the night, or

the day. You can see the places where they've lost out. Kingston has

gone blue. The Conservatives have taken this. It was marginal but Ed

Davey's seat as an MP there, wonder if he will be concerned. Portsmouth,

we saw the UKIP vote cut in. These are the places where they've held

on. They'll be relieved in Sutton. Eastleigh impossible for them to

lose. We don't know about Cheltenham yet. We are seeing the Lib Dem share

of the vote holding up against the Tory vote or at least dropping less

quickly than the Tory vote in places where they are fighting the Tories.

If I just take you to some of the other results we have got you can

see how the Lib Dems are faring against Labour. This is where Labour

is really pushing ahead. This is where the Lib Dems are really

starting to feel the pain. Let me take you to Wirral. Labour on 36 -

sorry now on 38. I am going to show you a pattern that is beginning to

emerge now. If you look at this you say not much, the Lib Dems have lost

one, don't make a big deal of it, but what we can do is go back and

now you can see a pattern starting to emerge since the general

election. Why do I say that? These elections are fought in thirds. This

is the end of the political cycle. What's happened to that trajectory?

The Labour Party picking up seats against the Lib Dems which is seeing

this continual downward slide. It's not just the Wirral. If we go to the

north-west and Rossendale. Overnight it looks as if there isn't a lot of

change. But when I start to go back and show you those last four years

you can see the patterns beginning to emerge. It's happening in Sefton,

as well. That Lib Dem share of the vote, this is what's happen

happening overnight. This is what's happening when you go back four

years. Labour up 17. Lib Dems down 11. You won't see these as headline

figures because they were all Labour, they're staunchly Labour and

have remained Labour. But what this means is that the foot soldiers in

places where Lib Dems need to feel they're clinging on is not really

happening. So, you are watching that carefully,

Danny Alexander, do you agree with the analysis? It shows over the last

three or four years we have lost council seats in election, that's

true, it happens to parties in Government. It has happened to the

Conservative Party. It happened to Labour for their 13 years in office.

But Emily could have mentioned Gateshead where we held to all our

councillors, she could have mentioned Kirklees, redcar. So,

there are really difficult stories in some places but actually I also

think that in these elections we are seeing hard-working Liberal Democrat

councillors, especially in areas where we also have Members of

Parliament, and Emily gave us a full list of councils there. Both in

Kingston and in Portsmouth some specific local factors going on. I

think that those results and those councils show in places where we

have MPs and a council strength and we work hard to get our message

across locally and about what we are achieving in Government, the

difference that Liberal Democrats are making to this country, actually

we can maintain and even grow our support. Eric, we have been joined

by the man how's hour it is. Nigel Farage. Thank you for joining us,

and I suppose, firstly, congratulations on the UKIP result.

Which is extraordinary. At least everyone is talking about it. How

many seats do you think you will get in the European Parliament as a

result of this? Well, I have been saying for three-and-a-half years I

wanted to cause an earthquake in British politics, we have seen the

tremors today. I will not count the chickens before they have hatched.

But the signs are encouraging. My focus is not the number of seats we

win is can we topple poll across the United Kingdom. That is the marker I

am looking towards. Do you think that you will? I do,

yes. I do. I am sticking my neck out but

yes, I do. It may be tight but I think that we are going to get

there. So, what is the future for UKIP now.

We heard you in Thurrock, unless I misheard you, you were asked if you

would stand yourself. You said they would not want you there, I think

so. Are you going to stand? I am from south of the river. They would

not have me. They would not need me. We have very good members of UKIP in

Essex. We did well in the County Council elections, we have done very

well in the district council elections and there are seats in

Essex that are absolutely winnable for us in a general election next

year. I have not decided what I am going to do. I will choose a seat

but it will be south of the river. You will choose a parliamentary

constituency to fight? Yes, I will. Absolutely. What we are going to do,

overthe course of the summer is we are looking at the results, looking

at last year's results and choose a number of target constituencies. We

will do exactly what the Lib Demes did in the 1990s, and choose the

seats. One great measure will be do we have the district and the County

Councillors? Have we proved first-past-the-post we can succeed

in the constituencies? And once we have done that and the human

resources, it will be targeted towards the seats. You have 11

months to produce not just a simple story that you have been producing

up to now about immigration and leaving the European Union but a

whole range of topics you have to defend on the doorstep. You yourself

said in as many words that the last manifesto was rubbish, you did not

bother to do t -- to read it. How can you produce a serious platform

for a political party which is not just about UKIP pulling out of the

EU or arguing for that? Well, well don't think that the immigration

issue, that is number one in the issue stakes, don't think that is

going to go away. I think that the plight of the eurozone is such that

immigration will be a bigger question by the time of the jest

than last Thursday. But we have laid out principles on energy pricing,

wind energy, renewables, grammer schools, social mobility. Taking

people out of tax if they are earning the minimum wage. Sure we

scrapped the last manifesto but so have the other parties. Nobody can

tell you what their manifesto is, so I accept there are challenges. We

have to reorganise. Get the manifesto right. Choose the target

seats and the right people and professionalise yet more the centre

of the party. There are big challenges but I think that the

party has the energy and the enthusiasm to do it.

On the other hand the three parties damaged or potentially damaged by

you are presumably also deciding how they will reply to UKIP's challenge,

in effect. Would you feel that your job was done if the other three

parties or anyone of them changed their attitude on some of the

issues, you could be seen as a party of protest this had your protest and

then succeeded as the political attitudes of Westminster had

changed? Well if the Conservative Party or the Labour Party said that

they realised that they had been wrong, that as a result of the EU

membership they are impotent. There is nothing to do to deal with the

immigration numbers, nothing to do with imemployment regulation,

nothing to do with regards to environmental targets with on shore

and or shore wind farms, if they came clean with the British public

saying to accept to be in an organisation that makes 57% of the

laws makes no sense if someone from the Labour Party or the Conservative

Party said that, our job would be done. But they appear determined.

The three parties, the legacy parties, as I call them, they appear

determined to maintain the membership of the European Union, so

actually, our view is opposed to them on most of the big issues of

the day. We have had voices from the

Conservative Party saying that the right thing for the Conservatives to

do is to love bomb you. To embrace you and bring you in with them so

that you and they brought all of the people who feel like you and they do

or like many of their supporters do, to bring them all back to one party,

to stand together at the general election. Is that still even a

remote possibility? Is that one you would welcome? I don't think it is.

The last interview that the Prime Minister gave when asked about UKIP,

and remember this guy has form on UKIP, he has called us closet

racist, loonies, fruitcakes, goodness knows what else, and the

last interview he gave he called us appalling people. I think he thinks

we are members of the lower orders, not worthy to be in the room with

him so the idea of a pact happening with him while he is leader is

unlikely. I am not sure it is desirable. Look at riotam, there is

a big Labour vote, a substantial Lib Dem vote and an interesting non-vote

for those who have not voted for 20 years, coming to UKIP. I think that

one in three of the voters from across the country have come from

the Conservatives and most do not want to go back. So it is difficult

to see how it would make sense. So I suggest that Jacob Reece-Mogg,

Douglas Carswell, they are looking at the politics from the old ideas

of left and right, I think that something bigger than that going on.

Does David Cameron, Eric Pickles, lock on Nigel Farage as a member of

the lower orders, he and his people? I would like to think that I am the

authentic voice of the lower orders. I endorse what David Cameron says

that there will be no deals with UKIP. I congratulate Nigel Farage

but with power comes responsibility and we will see him next year.

See him off next year? We well see him next year and see him off next

year. What do you say to this, about what is being said about you and all

three of you. You are bruised by this? Nigel Farage has had success

in traditional Labour areas, I concede that. I think that they are

right to some extent in that people, I don't think that UKIP has the

answers by the way. That when the people see their policies a lot of

working-class people will run a mile. That has not always come

across. Hang on, you don't know what the

policies are? I think that the success is being in speaking to that

discontent that people have got. Not just with politics but normally that

is driven by what is happening in the economic circumstances as well.

I think Labour has the answers but we need to do a bit more to connect

in terms of showing that we understand that discontent and that

we have the answers. Nigel Farage is standing patiently.

This is an interview that will be stopped by Mr O' Flynn but Nigel

Farage, what do you say to that? Eric Pickles says we will be seen

off next year, I say to him, we will see you in Westminster. You never

know, we may even hold the balance of power. If we do, there will be a

referendum. I believe I left business to come to politics, I

believe we should abself-governing democratic nation and everyone that

votes UKIP believes the same thing. I am sorry but the three parties are

hopelessly out of touch with the way that the modern world is going.

Danny Alexander, do you want to have a word? I would congratulate Nigel

Farage on the successful council results, there is a debate to be had

but a debate on the substance. Those of us who believe strongly in

Britain's place in the European Union, need the debate.

Nick Clegg has done that. We will talk about that on Sunday night on

the issue of Europe. The Labour Party chose not to engage in the

argument. If we are to have the debate, those of us who believe

passionately that Britain should abpart of Europe for reasons of job,

employment, making sure we are a strong voice in the world we have to

speak up for our view ares, otherwise it is the likes of Nigel

Farage that gets the airtime. But does not Nigel Farage standing there

represent all of the failings of your three political parties? He is

only there because you, the three of you are seen by the voters as having

failed them in whatever way? I am sure that Nigel Farage represents

himself and not us. But I am saying that we are seeing across the whole

of the European Union we are seeing protest movements of various sorts

in more or less every major country. With various opinions on things but

often around arguments about the European Union, arguments about

immigration. I think that we have to get better at making our argument

about how in practise we are helping to deal with the problems.

My question is does he represent your failure? I would go to

Eastleigh to answer that question. Nigel Farage said he was targeting

Eastleigh. Looking at the results in Eastleigh, there what a strong

performance from the Liberal Democrats, making further progress.

UKIP have been telling us that they are going too make a break through

in Eastleigh, I want to go down there and see what they have in the

Lib Dem campaign there, they have found the best way a to deal with

him. You can ask him, he will know what

is going on in Eastleigh, go on? Nigel Farage? You are asking me?

Yes. Well, in Eastleigh, the Labour vote

is down and staying down. That is for certain. The Lib Demes are

strong in Eastleigh, they held on well, we are still there as we were

in the by-election just a couple of percentage points behind them. There

is a stalemate but we are still there we are the contenders next

year. But I say this to Danny Alexander, if he wants to go on with

the pro-EU position but not trusting the British public by giving them a

referendum, all I say is thank you very much, you will prove to be our

best recruiting sergeant between now and the general election. Because of

that reason, whatever Labour say, by the time May comes along I suspect

that they will have changed their position. Nigel Farage thank you

very much indeed. Where are you, as a matter of interest? All we can see

is a lamppost and parkland? I am outside of the pub in Basildon where

we won 11 seats. So a bit of a celebration.

Just outside the pub to talk to us, now it is back inside? Quite right,

absolutely. Thank you very much. I don't want to

keep you from your pint any longer. Thank you very much for coming to

our camera. Emily, let's have a look at the

latest results. These results are proving Nigel

Farage's point well. This is Great Yarmouth. Labour took this two years

ago. Now it has been put into an overcontrol, Labour. If I show you

what has happened it crystallises the narrative we have been talking

about, UKIP coming in with the fresh ten seats taking five from Labour

and five from the Conservatives. So they are spreading their power far

and wide. Grimsby, the north-east, that is another one where we are

seeing the same pattern. And again Labour has been pushed out of no

overall control short by one. That is pretty much the reason there.

Look at what happened overnight, today, I should say. UKIP gaining

seven councillors. Conservatives down to four. UKIP is in first

place. 36% of the vote to Labour's 26%. Obviously put back into the

seats, the number of councillors it is harder for them to make the share

work in numbers but they are cutting into the dominance of Labour this

these parts of the world. Professor Jane Green you have

something to say about immigration and UKIP? Listening to the

conversation, what is interesting, no-one can say that the parties have

been ignoring the question of Europe but I do think that what will be

interesting in the year to come is to see how all of the parties deal

with the issue of immigration. Back in 2010, less than 1% of people

thought that UKIP was the best party and the most important problem to

them, today that figure is 12% and immigration is more important. The

challenge how to talk about immigration without going into those

veriy tricky territories in politics over issues of race. It is tricky to

question whether you talk about immigration, then you give UKIP more

of an opportunity and then the background to all of this of course

being the economy. I understand that the Conservatives

will obviously want to claim credit for economic improvements, this will

be a dividing line but what I think needs to happen is that people

should feel that the economy is doing better for them and then that

will somewhat off set some of the considerations about which is most

important, which parties get the credit. Is there an element of

racism in the support? You have seen statistics about how UKIP does in

mainly white or British-born white areas as opposed to areas with big

immigrant communities, but is that racism or is that just people

worried about jobs, people worried about schools and all the other

things you hear that politicians report from the doorstep? So, I

would say there is going to be an element and I don't know how large

that element is. I think it would be uncontroversial to say that there is

going to be an element of racism in some of these votes. But it's not as

simple as that and it's not as simple, what Jeremy was saying

earlier, wards with proportions of mixed ethnic minorities being

particularly high weren't more likely to support UKIP, I think what

we might see in those areas where we haves could poll tan areas where

people are comfortable living in mixed racial communities that

support for UKIP is going to belower. It's a fascinating -- to be

lower. It's a fascinating question to get to the bottom of how that's

panning out. The Conservative MP for Bury North is in Salford this

afternoon. Thank you for coming in. What's your view about all of this,

what do you think should be done about UKIP and about the challenge

to them that might work for the next general election? Well, my view is

that as a Conservative Party we need to present our own programme and put

that to the British people and if we do that then I think we can attract

back to the Conservatives when it comes to the next general election

people who have on this occasion perhaps chosen to go and vote for

another party probably - results are still come coming, UKIP. What would

you like the Conservative Party to say to the voter? My own personal

view is I will be delighted if the Conservative Party were to announce

that they would negotiate our exit from the European Union. But I

accept that is not going to be the position of the Conservative Party

and therefore the best position is what the party is offering, which is

to give the British people a say and that is is what is on offer at the

next general election. I think when it comes to choosing the next party

of Government in next year's general election and it's a choice between

David Cameron and Ed Miliband, once that choice is put before the

British people and those who are concerned about immigration and our

role in the European Union have the opportunity to decide who it is that

they want to run the country, I think that the majority will decide

to give the Conservatives the right to govern alone, which is what I and

many of my colleagues on - all my colleagues on the back benches want

to see. What about the Conservatives governing with UKIP, having a pact

that they won't fight each other in the constituencies at the general

election and so getting everybody who feels like you do together in

one party? Well, as we heard the respective leaders of the

Conservative Party, the Prime Minister and MrFarage, the leader of

UKIP say, it's not on the agenda. I don't think that either we or

journalists might want to talk about it, if we listen to them, they say

it's not going to happen. My view is that there are enormous complicated

difficulties in that actually happening, because both parties have

their own manifesto. If it were to come about that there were

candidates standing with both Conservative and UKIP logos at the

side of their name, which manifesto would they be expected to follow?

The Conservative manifesto on some things, the UKIP manifesto on other

things? It's really not realistic, I don't think. It's not realistic to

expect that's going to happen. I don't think it will happen.

Certainly at a local level my message to voters in my Bury North

constituency is look, you know my views, I have been clear about what

I believe in and come and back me. If you vote for UKIP, there is a

risk as we have seen in local elections, that a Labour candidate

may be elected and may be even further away from your views than

some issues than I am. You said you knew that the Conservative Party

wasn't going to say we will pull out of Europe and have that as its

stance, but that was your belief that should happen, that's what you

would like to see happen, though it wasn't going to happen, would you

like to see some deal done with Farage even though you think it

won't happen? Do you yourself believe it would be a good idea?

Clearly if by some miracle the two parties were able to agree at the

very highest level a common programme and the right in British

politics were it to be united, that would be a beneficial thing. I would

have no qualms about that as someone who believes we would be better off

out of the European Union. Many Conservatives don't agree with my

view and think that the best thing to do is to have it decided by a

referendum of the British people, unless of course there are many

people in the Labour Party who agree with me on this particular issue and

surprisingly, there are lots of Liberal Democrats too who actually

think we would be better off out. It's the sort of issue perhaps it's

best it's dealt with by a referendum which it will be on offer if we win

an outright majority at the next general election. Thank you very

much, David Nuttall. We have now reached the moment which everybody

waits for after local election results, which is the projected

national share, what would have happened if the way people voted on

Thursday applied over the country as a whole. I will leave Jeremy Vine to

explain the details. Thank you, David. It's the big

moment really of this whole process of looking at these council

elections and trying to work out what it says about where the parties

are. Our projected national share, the share as David says we think the

parties would have got had these elections been held across the whole

country and not just in those 161 councils that we have seen coloured

in. Let me bring on projected national share for you, effectively

the result as we have it of the local elections.

Labour we have on 31% projected national share. That's a bit up, a

touch up on last year when Labour and the Conservatives were both held

under 30%. It's Conservatives on 29%. There we

have it. 29% in second place for the Conservatives. Interestingly, UKIP

here whose day and night started thunderingly well, maybe lower than

you expected given the coverage, 17%, that's the London vote, in

effect. But they're in third place. The Lib Dems are definitely here in

fourth with 13%, which is a very, very poor performance by the Lib

Dems. Others on 10%. We will have another look at this

graph. Projected national share. The share we think the parties would

have got had votes taken place across the whole of the UK. Labour

in first place on 31%. Conservatives just behind on 29%. UKIP there on

17%. The Lib Dems doing very poorly indeed on 13%.

There you are, David. Thank you very much. Nick Robinson,

our political editor, is at Westminster this afternoon. Nick,

you heard the figures. Does that change the picture that we have been

getting through on opinion polls or does it endorse them? I think it

Broadley endorses them. It will allow Labour to say look, we won, we

have the highest number of votes and also the most councils and the most

councillors. But what I think this confirms, this poll, is that Labour

are still not doing nearly well enough a year from a general

election to be confident of winning that election and because of that

column for UKIP. Yes, they're not doing as well as last night, they're

not doing as well as last year because 45% of all the seats fought

today were in London. UKIP didn't even fight many of those individual

seats. I think they fought about 25% of the seats in total and did much

worse in London than they did elsewhere. What have we really seen

of the UKIP performance? They're not a party of power yet. They haven't

taken control of any councils. They don't have any MPs. There is not a

prayer of them forming the next Government but they've established

themselves as a party with a power to disrupt, not just in European

Parliamentary elections, we may well see them win those when the results

come out on Sunday night and Monday morning, but the power to disrupt up

and down the country, threatening Labour in its heartlands in the

north, denying them victories in the Midlands, causing real heartache for

the Tories amongst the heartlands of Essexman, the area Margaret Thatcher

conquered when she came to power in the late 1970s and early 80s, as

well. And causing real heartache to parties and meaning that here in

Westminster and on your programme we are hearing the leaders, in

particular of Labour and the Tories, wrestling with how to deal with

this. Ed Balls I thought fascinating earlier on making it clear he

thought his party's campaign hadn't done enough on immigration, hadn't

said enough on reforming Europe. On the Tory side, again and again as

you have just seen a few minutes ago with MrNuttall, people saying we

need to do more on this issue of Europe and immigration, as well.

Thank you very much. Are you going to stay with us or are you off to

broadcast for somebody else? I am always delighted to be here! Hang on

a moment. Patrick Flynn has joined us, we have had from John Kurties an

interesting thing, you have 23% last year. You have actually slipped back

a bit, not just because of London according to John, but because in

the few places where the vote can be compared directly with last year,

your vote is down. How do you explain that if we are talking -

everybody is talking about this great surge of UKIP, what's gone

wrong? I really don't think anything has gone wrong for us, as Nick said

45% of the seats were London. Although we tried to have an option

of UKIP on the ballot paper in every ward we could, the coverage there

was very poor relatively. It is by far our weakest area. To come out

with that projected national vote share is right at the top end of our

expectation. John Curtis, what do you think we should read into the

projected national share, it seems as if everybody is not quite where

they ought to be. When you have four-party politics everybody is

trying to get top spot and nobody's going to do terribly well. I think

the first thing to say, I think the headline about this is that Labour's

lead over the Conservatives at two points is narrower than last year.

It's narrower than in 2012. This is a clear warning to the Labour Party

which underlines that of recent opinion polls, that the lead over

the Conservatives looks too small for it to be confident of victory in

12 months' time. That's point number one. Point number two is although

UKIP's vote is down, if two years ago I was saying to you we are going

to say UKIP would get the equivalent of 17% at a general election you

would say I don't believe you, and we should remember this is still a

remarkable performance, what we have seen however in a sense - last year

we saw as it were places where UKIP were really strong. This year we

have seen the other side, which is certainly one part of England where

UKIP clearly are not strong and that is London, and that now is clearly

reflected more accurately in this year's projected national share. For

the Liberal Democrats, one simply has to say when are they going to

get out of trouble? This national share is lower than last year's

record low. 12 months to go and they need to remember that the next time

the nation goes to the polling stations it's for real. It's Liberal

Democrat MPs own seats on the line and quite a few of them look as

though they're facing an uncomfortable 12 months. What kind

of share should they have got, they've 13 here, if they were to

save the seats they've got at the moment? Danny will probably tell you

that's still better than the current standing in the opinion polls, which

is quite true, but the truth is Liberal Democrats always do better

in local elections than in opinion polls. But by the standards of the

Liberal Democrat history and local Government elections, 13% is,

frankly, an abysmal perform performance. Do you agree, Nick?

It's a poor performance, it's true the Liberal Democrats have seen all

the protest votes they used to get in opposition go to UKIP. They are

going in large numbers to a new kid on the block, to Nigel Farage. Of

course the key question, not just after today, but after the European

results on Sunday night and Monday morning, is how many of those can

Nigel Farage hang on to? Patrick Flynn in the studio, m former

journalist colleague of mine here at Westminster, has effectively

persuaded his party and helped his party to say we are only really