08/08/2016 World Business Report


08/08/2016

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Those are the latest headlines from BBC World News.

:00:00.:00:00.

Now for the latest financial news with Sally and World Business

:00:00.:00:00.

Building walls and trashing trade agreements, Donald Trump lays

:00:00.:00:17.

out his economic plans for the world's biggest economy today.

:00:18.:00:19.

And China shows further signs of weakness.

:00:20.:00:25.

The latest trade figures came in worse than expected,

:00:26.:00:27.

with exports shrinking for 21st month in a row.

:00:28.:00:37.

Welcome to World Business Report, I'm Sally Bundock.

:00:38.:00:45.

Also in the programme: We will get some top career tips

:00:46.:00:47.

from the founder of the world's largest foreign exchange company,

:00:48.:00:50.

We start in the US, where Donald Trump will be hoping

:00:51.:00:57.

to jump-start his presidential campaign, after a difficult week

:00:58.:01:00.

The Republican candidate is in Detroit where he will try

:01:01.:01:06.

to win over voters, and his speech is expected to outline his plans

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Trump has already outlined several of his key policies.

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Let's take a look at what we know so far.

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The billionaire businessman has proposed a series of tax cuts

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A Republican government would see the top rate of corporation tax cut

:01:19.:01:22.

That is a reduction of more than half.

:01:23.:01:32.

Mr Trump has also vowed to put American workers first.

:01:33.:01:35.

He proposes to do that by strengthening borders,

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and says he will deport any illegal immigrants out of the country.

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It is estimated this could see some 11 million people,

:01:41.:01:42.

or 3.5% of the population, removed from the United States.

:01:43.:01:45.

Protectionism is another big issue for the Republican candidate.

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Mr Trump has proposed a 45% levy on Chinese goods and a 35% tax

:01:48.:01:51.

He hopes this will safeguard American jobs, but his opponents

:01:52.:02:09.

suggest that this could spark an all-out trade war.

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Peter Morici is an academic at the University of Maryland,

:02:12.:02:14.

and a former chief economist at the US International Trade

:02:15.:02:16.

Good morning, all good evening as is the case where you are. Thank you

:02:17.:02:32.

for being on the programme. As ever with the Donald Trump story, it is

:02:33.:02:38.

extremely divisive, with strong opinions on both sides about his

:02:39.:02:43.

economic plans. What are your thoughts? Well, I think if we're

:02:44.:02:47.

talking about imposing a tariff on China for the purpose of our

:02:48.:02:54.

relationship with them, kind of Brexit move, then it makes some

:02:55.:02:58.

sense. If we are talking about closing our borders, it makes no

:02:59.:03:02.

sense at all. We can't deport 11 million people, that is absurd. The

:03:03.:03:06.

time has passed when we can say that these people are here illegally and

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must leave. Many of them have had children here, this is getting to be

:03:11.:03:16.

a bit absurd. So a lot of it is absurd, as you say, but will it be

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one of those situations where it is about winning votes prior to getting

:03:21.:03:23.

the job and if he does get the job his team around him will advise him

:03:24.:03:28.

on a more rational way? Well, when I look at the economic advisory team

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that he appointed on Friday, I would say no. My feeling is he has got a

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bunch of financial guys who are buddies of his, real estate people

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and so forth, it is very thin on economic and public policy

:03:43.:03:47.

expertise. Of those, some of those with expertise are a bit gadflyish

:03:48.:03:54.

with their attitudes. He can't get reputable people to advise him. Not

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that the committee is devoid of reputable people but I am largely

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can't get reputable economists to work with him. OK, so you are

:04:02.:04:05.

concerned about the team around him but the issue is also if he gets the

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job in November, to what extent can you push radical change through

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anyway, given how the Congress is sort of playing out, and also you've

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got things like an independent Federal Reserve that would hopefully

:04:18.:04:22.

have some sort of influence? Well, the Federal Reserve is vulnerable,

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and some economists on the team, one of whom is very critical of the

:04:29.:04:33.

Federal Reserve policy, they could find allies in the Congress and that

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would undermine the Fed's independence, that concerns me a

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great deal. Imposing a large tariff requires congressional approval. You

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could do it on an emergency basis as a short-term thing to force

:04:47.:04:50.

negotiations with China but you really can't, for example, just rip

:04:51.:04:55.

up Nafta and throw it out the window, as we are electing a

:04:56.:05:01.

president and not a dictator. A big drop in corporation tax, and also on

:05:02.:05:05.

taxes for all individuals in America, regardless of what they are

:05:06.:05:11.

earning. How do you add that up, how will, therefore, the Federal

:05:12.:05:14.

Government pay for things if they are getting less money coming in? I

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can tell you categorically that tax cut is not going to happen. There

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will be a tax cut, but not the Trump tax cut. It will cost $1 trillion a

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year, that is an enormous slice of US federal revenue. He would simply

:05:28.:05:32.

have to accept a much smaller tax cut and also cuts in spending and

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other places to pay for some of it. You just cannot justify these kinds

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of rate cuts, they are so Draconian. And I am an economic conservative, I

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want lower taxes and less government at this is witchery. And who is your

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money on, finally, Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump? Who is going to get

:05:52.:05:56.

the job in November? Hillary Clinton is going to win. Donald Trump is

:05:57.:06:01.

running an undisciplined campaign which is largely a family operation.

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He has surrounded himself by cronies. It is not a professional

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campaign. He may be a great real estate wheeler and dealer, but

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politician he is not. He is out of his element. Thank you for your

:06:15.:06:17.

perspective and later when we hear more of what Mr Trump has been

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saying in Detroit we shall update you.

:06:21.:06:21.

In the last couple of hours, the latest set of trade statistics

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Sharanjit Leyl is in Singapore for us.

:06:25.:06:28.

Last time I spoke to you you were with me here in the studio. Nice to

:06:29.:06:36.

see you back in Singapore. How is China doing? Well, not very well

:06:37.:06:41.

unfortunately. Exports and imports falling more than expected in July.

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It is a sign of a sluggish global demand. We saw deteriorating imports

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as well to China. That is raising a lot of concerns about the domestic

:06:52.:06:55.

conditions within China. Essentially what we saw was exports falling 4.4%

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from Asia's largest economy from the previous year. Imports were down

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12.5% in dollar terms and the trade surplus widening to over $52

:07:06.:07:09.

billion. Officials essentially having to boost fiscal support. They

:07:10.:07:13.

are trying to improve investment and consumption at home but really not

:07:14.:07:17.

resulting in March. You will recall of course it has been a year since

:07:18.:07:24.

China's surprised evaluation of the yuan, the weaker currency isn't

:07:25.:07:28.

really benefiting that much and it really should boost exports.

:07:29.:07:31.

Analysts say that the global economy as well has already been weakened by

:07:32.:07:36.

the UK's surprise vote to leave the EU. It is sluggish, there is

:07:37.:07:41.

increasing uncertainty and it is also interesting to compare

:07:42.:07:46.

Chinaexports as well as imports to different parts of the world.

:07:47.:07:51.

Exports to the US slipping 2%. They fell compared to the European Union

:07:52.:07:55.

bloc imports to Australia, where China has always looked for iron ore

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and other resources, they slumped some 22%. We also saw oil imports

:08:01.:08:05.

falling the six-month lows, mainly due to the falls in the price of

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crude. So overall not great news from China at this point. Thank you

:08:10.:08:14.

very much. We will see how that feeds through in markets in a

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minute. In other news: The UK's

:08:16.:08:18.

Serious Fraud Office has launched an investigation into allegations

:08:19.:08:20.

of fraud, bribery and corruption involving the aircraft

:08:21.:08:22.

manufacturer Airbus. The allegations relate

:08:23.:08:24.

to irregularities concerning the use Airbus said it was co-operating

:08:25.:08:26.

with the probe, which was Now let's turn to the mystifying

:08:27.:08:29.

world of career advice. We asked the boss of the world's

:08:30.:08:43.

largest foreign exchange bureau, Travelex, what he wished he had been

:08:44.:08:45.

told before starting I think the most important thing for

:08:46.:08:53.

anyone building a business today is persistence. Certainly for me in

:08:54.:08:55.

many occasions where it has made a many occasions where it has made a

:08:56.:08:59.

real difference. There is a great quote from Calvin Coolidge, the

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American President, who once said that nothing in the world can take

:09:03.:09:07.

the place of persistence. Talent will not, Genius will not, education

:09:08.:09:12.

will not. Persistence and determination are alone are

:09:13.:09:19.

omnipotent. Don't necessarily get hung up on qualifications. I've been

:09:20.:09:22.

fortunate enough to recruit some amazing boys and girls who didn't

:09:23.:09:26.

necessarily come with fantastic degrees and MBAs, but were just

:09:27.:09:32.

committed, enthusiastic, really wanted to make a difference. The

:09:33.:09:36.

reverse is also true. I have recruited people with degrees and

:09:37.:09:40.

MBAs who turned out to be useless. It is gut feel. Do the people you

:09:41.:09:45.

want to recruit want to be a part of what you are trying to build? Let's

:09:46.:09:50.

have a look at the markets and you can get a sense of how they are

:09:51.:09:54.

reacting. As you can see, the fact that China is seeing slowing trade

:09:55.:09:58.

growth, not really phasing market at all. The yen, $1 buying just

:09:59.:10:26.

People are under-reporting the amount they eat,

:10:27.:10:28.

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