16/01/2017 World Business Report


16/01/2017

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Taking aim at BMW, the President-elect threatens

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the German carmaker with huge tariffs, as he reveals more

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about his plans for the world's biggest economy.

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And we take you to Silicon Valley, to find out what the world's biggest

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players in technology are doing to get ready

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We will also have more on that story just mentioned, an arrest warrant

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issued for the de facto boss of Samsung.

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The US President-elect, Donald Trump, says he will offer

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Britain what he calls a quick and fair trade deal within weeks

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His comments come just days before a speech by the UK Prime Minister,

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Theresa May, where she is expected to reveal further details

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of the country's strategy as it prepares to leave

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Speaking to the Times newspaper, Mr Trump said his team would work

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very hard to get it done quickly and properly,

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Mr Trump went on to say the UK had made the right decision in leaving

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the European Union, and that further countries were likely to follow

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Meanwhile, in a separate interview with the German newspaper Bild,

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the US President-elect threatened BMW with a 35% border tax for cars

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Last week the German carmaker said it was committed to its plans

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to open up its new factory in San Luis Potosi,

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despite Mr Trump's persistent warnings.

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Dr Brian Klaas is a fellow in comparative politics

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Good morning. Good morning. There is so much to talk about. He had a lot

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to say in that interview. Let's start with the tariffs on BMW, to

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begin with. What do you think BMW is thinking about that, and is it

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likely to happen? There are two backsides to the story. One is

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whether it will happen. I think Senate Republicans will put up

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barriers, when many of them believe in free trade. The second aspect to

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the story is how this will play for US manufacturers. America is a

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global player in the economy as well so is there going to be a

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retaliation from other countries if Trump tries to pursue this policy of

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punishing individual car makers for their decisions to allocate their

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resources as they best see fit. It is interesting, because we saw Ford

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and Fiat-Chrysler say they would perhaps put on the backburner their

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plans to move to Mexico. It is interesting how businesses worldwide

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are having to react to this President-elect. His tweets, his

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comments, his interview last night. It is, in the words of the president

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really matter and send clear signals but one thing that is troubling is

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that Trump and signalling very clearly that he will choose winners

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and losers in the economy. That is not good for the economy because you

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have uncertainty, rather than waiting for that last tweet to

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determine where to invest. Interesting to see what he had to

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say about Brexit, about the US, UK trade relationship and Michael Gove

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being part of the interviewed him, as it were. Which is interesting.

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Give us your take on that. He seems to say that it will happen quickly

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and smoothly but in reality that is often not the case. I think the US

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UK trade deal would certainly be good for Britain but we have to put

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it in context. First up, written and the US are not the largest trading

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partners. Written has most of its trade going to Europe and 10% or 15%

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going to the United States so this will not be a huge game changer for

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the United States. But it is still good news. However, how quickly can

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get done? Most trade deals in the past have taken between four and

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eight years to actually ratify and put effect. Nafta took four years,

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the DPP took eight years. The idea that there would be some quick

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policy change is unlikely -- TPP. Theresa May doing a speech on Brexit

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this week, and the markets reacting. But on China, Trump called it not

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free trade but there are or smart trade. Give us your take on these

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comments. I think Trump and signalling he wants to drastically

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shift trade policy but Trump doesn't get to do this alone. So Trump is to

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find common ground with establishment figures both in the

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Republican and Democratic Party but particularly the Republican Party

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and many of them are the most hawkish on free trade, particularly

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in the Senate. So the idea that Trump will come in and change trade

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policy alone is not true. I think the US presidency often gets blamed

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too much for the economy and gets too much credit for the economy. It

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doesn't exist out of Trump's hands and it is something where he will

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have an influence on it, but he is not going to dictate it. Thank you

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for your time, lots more on that story on our website.

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Staying with the US and Donald Trump, and we assess how

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the vast US technology industry is preparing for the new president.

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It forms a huge part of the US economy, accounting for just over 7%

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of the value of goods and services produced there in 2016.

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Our technology correspondent Rory Cellan-Jones has been

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to San Francisco to find out what the tech sector thinks

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San Francisco, in effect the capital of Silicon Valley and the epicentre

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of the technology industry. Looming over everything right now is the

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prospect of a president the majority of Californians did not vote for.

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One tech firm, the memory of his election still hurts. It felt like

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someone died in the family. It felt like 9/ 11. Everyone was in shock.

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We are kind of in a bubble in the tech industry. We thought Hillary

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was for sure going to win and the next day Trump wins, and you have to

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wonder, what is the rest of America like? This company's owner, Michael

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Birch, arrived here from the UK but is now an American citizen and

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trying to be positive. One thing that Silicon Valley certainly is is

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very innovative, so in the face of what is happening with Trump, I

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think we will innovate around it and find a way to go forward. During his

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campaign, Donald Trump was exactly friendly to the tech business. What

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I think you want to do is boycott Apple. And his positions on

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immigration and trade caused concern in this globalised industry. But

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there is an upside. Like a number of tech giants, Apple has one good

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reason to be optimistic about Donald Trump. He could offer them a deal to

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bring billions of dollars of cash held overseas home at a favourable

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tax rate. But the price of that could be increasing pressure to

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build the iPhone in the United States rather than China. If he can

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maintain the cost for the consumer, sure. But I don't think that's

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possible. I think it will be great. The more the merrier, for being in

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America, being made in America, yes. Whatever their reservations about

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him, the bosses of Apple and cluster of other tech giants had profitable

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meeting with him. America's most dominant technology journalist says

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they should be far more robust. I think they have to be outspoken in

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ways they have not been comfortable being outspoken before, on issues of

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privacy, immigration, encryption. All kinds of things that have been

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very important to their employees. These are the most powerful people

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on the planet, and the richest as well. So they have nothing to fear

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by expressing themselves. At the tech industry's big hope is that the

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new president will come to see that it is going to underpin America's

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future prosperity, and let it get on with the job.

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Shares of Japanese airbag maker Takata are tumbling,

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after they announced a deal with the US government.

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The company pay $1 billion and plead guilty to criminal wrongdoing over

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the airbags, which have been linked to multiple deaths.

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Shanijit Leyl is in Singapore for us.

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Nice to see you. What is the detail? Well, the details are that those

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shares are down over 10%, and that is, bear in mind, after soaring more

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than 16% on Friday ahead of that announcement you just mentioned. The

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fact that US officials saying on Friday Takata had essentially agreed

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to the settlement over the defect involving its exploding airbags,

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which were behind as many as 16 deaths and led to the recall of more

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than 100 million airbags worldwide. The US also indicted three former

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Takata employees, bringing the first criminal charges in the scandal. It

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has caused the auto industry's biggest safety recall. Analysts are

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essentially saying that this agreement may be one step forward

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for Takata, but there are still lots of concerns over the fact that the

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company hasn't shown when and how it would restructure its company, or

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pay off its many liabilities. There has been some speculation that they

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could go bankrupt. Takata has been in talks with potential buyers who

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are evaluating all its many potential liabilities as well. We

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are watching that stock, currently down over 10%. On the other big

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story coming out of Asia today is the special prosecutor in South

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Korea seeking an arrest warrant for the head of the Samsung group, for

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his role in a corruption and influenced peddling scandal. HY Lee

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is accused of bribery in connection with the National pension service,

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supporting the merger of two Samsung affiliates. It is said he paid

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bribes totalling 40 billion yuan, that is to a friend of President

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Park, at the centre of an escalating corruption scandal. The pound

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sterling on the way down against the dollar, 1.6% versus the dollar since

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it was reported in the Sunday Times about what the Prime Minister will

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have to say in her speech this week about Brexit, it would seem a hard

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Brexit is what is expected. Asian shares falling across the board with

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a much weaker dollar against currencies such as the Japanese yen.

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I will see you soon. Northern Ireland's devolved

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Government is set to collapse today, after Sinn Fein insisted again

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they would not replace Martin McGuinness as Stormont

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deputy First Minister. Our Ireland correspondent

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Chris Page reports.

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