05/05/2017 World Business Report

Now it's time for World Business Report.

Yep, the big boss of one of the world's largest banks,

Goldman Sachs, tells the BBC about his preparations for a world

after Brexit - that's coming up in an exclusive interview.

It's a biggie for Europe, with one of them being knocked out.

Yep, it's the last day of campaigning before France

So we're going to look at how each one's plans to run

If you don't like waving hands and high energy, I suggest you switch

the channel right now. The rest of you who are staying with us, thank

you. The chief Executive

of Goldman Sachs has warned London "will stall"

because of the risks Lloyd Blankfein told the BBC

that the company was developing contingency plans to move some

of its 6,500 employees out of the capital depending

on the outcome of the negotiations. Mr Blankfein was talking exclusively

to our economics editor, Lots of people he lacked to have

their European business concentrated in a single place. -- elect to have.

The UK is the easiest place to concentrate, with the culture and

the language and the special relationship. We are an example of

that. If you cannot benefit from access to the European Union from

the UK, and nobody knows what those rules and those determinations would

be, the risk is that there will be some adjustment that would cause

some people to have a smaller footprint in the UK. Is written

outside the single market? The Prime Minister has made clear she wants to

be less attractive for a firm like yours. I would say that it is our

hope that we would be able to conduct our business as close as we

can to the way we conducted today. We have to be not in the forecasting

business about this, we have to be in the contingency plan business,

and that is the rub. Because without knowing how things will turn out, we

have to plan for a number of contingencies and our hope is that

we do not have to implement anything until we know what it is that we

have to implement. Putt if there is no period of time to implement

whatever changes are brought about in negotiation, we may have to do

things prematurely and we may have to delay range of things as a

precaution. Right now we are trying to avoid that. Which other cities

are you looking at? We are not focused on any. We are already

resident right now, we have a presence in Dublin, Frankfurt,

France... So you need a clear signal on implementation period after... We

would like that. And we realise that this process is not being done to

our comfort or convenience. You have 7000 people in London. Surely that

will still be, by far, your biggest office in Europe in ten years.

Strange things happen. What I am as confident about that statement as I

am about anything else, given that there are things outside our

control. -- but I am. The French presidential election

is entering its last days before the final round of

voting at the weekend. Cadidates Marine Le Pen

and Emmanuel Macron have promised One key issue throughout

the campaign has been the economy. Here's a reminder of the competing

visions the candidates Emmanuel Macron wants spending cuts

of 60 billion euros, that's $66 billion, over five years

- with a 50 billion euro stimulus He also wants to lower taxes

and extend the welfare state. He says he could still keep France's

deficit below the EU's limit of 3% of gross domestic product

and would cut 50,000 state jobs. Marine Le Pen has been very

critical of austerity. She has pledged to cut taxes

for households and increase welfare She intends to pay for these

measures with savings by withdrawing from the euro and

reducing immigration. She says that once France is out

of the euro she would get its central bank to print more money

to bring down the country's debt. The French unemployment rate

is stubbornly high at 10%. Emmanuel Macron wants to invest

in training and apprenticeships, Mr Macron wants to introduce

flexibility on overtime Marine Le Pen wants to maintain

the 35-hour week and lower the retirement age from 62 to 60,

and also make overtime tax-free. Lowering the retirement age, that

would be nice. Joining us now is Tomasz Michalski,

associate professor of economics Professor, good to see you. Thank

you for joining us at this early in the morning. If Emmanuel Macron

wins, and it seems like he is going to, will he be good for the French

economy? Well, of course, there is another stage to be seen, what is

going to happen during the parliamentary elections, because

Macron needs a parliamentary majority. But it looks like if

Macron's movement, or the Republicans, windows, and we will

know in a few weeks, then he should be able to implement his vision. --

win these. I think this is a continuation of long overdue reforms

in a favourable environment. The last push, by Nicholas Sarkozy in

2007, was stopped by the 2008 recession. It is mild supply-side

economics coupled with deep structural changes. Retraining is

key, to lower youth unemployment and also keep these changes to keep the

economy more aligned with Germany. It is a realistic plan, it would be

a great plan for France. What is your economic scenario if Marine Le

Pen wins? It is again unclear, because the President needs a

parliamentary majority to implement their reforms. And it is not clear

that even if she wins, she is going to get a Front National majority. If

that scenario were to happen, she was very unclear about the

proposals, as became clear in the debates. For example, she is not

clear about dropping the euro. She was in favour of dropping the euro,

then in favour of keeping it, and now she is in favour of introducing

a second currency that would be domestically used for domestic

payments, and large corporations would still pay with the euro. I

think it is still up in the air. It would basically be some kind of

chaotic outcome. However, I do not think that is a reasonable scenario.

No, although we do know another political campaigner who did a bit

of Arc and forth and is now the leader of the free world. -- back

and forth. Let me ask you this, when one of them wins, we talk about

reform, and there is so much reform needed for the French economy, what

is the first step? Is it the labour market? It will be, I think, a whole

package. You will have to watch what happens in the first few months. It

is going to be the supply-side tax reform and the labour reform, they

should come hand in hand. And if they have a majority they will pass

it quickly. I don't think there is going to be a large social movements

of strikes and so on. Last year's strikes really hurt the French and

turned the French opinion against them. It is going to be both tax

reform and labour market reform that I hope will bring in more

investments, coupled with low eurozone rates, which will give us a

nice pomp in France and in the eurozone, and perhaps help in the

longer run when the supply-side reforms are going to take place to

lower the unemployment to 7% or even 6%, which is going to be a lot.

Professor, sorry, we have to go. Thank you. I have to wrap it up,

time is ticking. And look out, Boeing and Airbus,

because the first made-in-China passenger jet is set to fly

for the first time this morning. It's called the C919, and it's built

by state-owned manufacturer Comac. It won't be delivered to airlines

until at least 2020. It's been in the works for nearly

a decade as China tries to rely less on those European

and American rivals. The oil price has fallen

to a five-month low as investor concerns resurface

about a worldwide glut. Brent crude dropped by more than $2

on Thursday to below $49 a barrel, hitting its lowest level since oil

cartel Opec struck a landmark deal Analysts said investors were worried

that oil nations would fail to ease supply fears at a

meeting later in May. I'll be back later with James to

look at papers from around the