04/12/2013 Y Sgwrs


04/12/2013

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Transcript


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Tomorrow, the Chancellor of the Exchequer will be at the chamber

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across the road to make his annual statement

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on the state of the economy.

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And the BBC's biggest brains will be sitting around this task,

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analysing every word.

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Tonight, we're keeping the seats warm and asking

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whether you have any confidence in the Chancellor's plans.

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Y Sgwrs, live from Westminster tonight.

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Good evening.

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Vaughan and I have caught the Y Sgwrs Express to London this week.

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As well as tomorrow's statement we'll also be talking about

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the perspective on our education system from over the border.

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Yesterday Welsh students came bottom of the British table

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for their ability in maths, reading and science.

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I wonder if George Osborne's maths will be better tomorrow.

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But first, let's welcome Vaughan Roderick and tonight's guests.

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Professor Deian Hopkin,

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a historian who's spent his career in the education field.

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Rhian Jones, who runs the London Welsh Society,

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and the Conservative MP Glyn Davies. Welcome.

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Let's start with the economy.

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First, we're visiting a small business near Caernarfon to see

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if there is a feeling, for the first Christmas in years, that the

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economy is improving.

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How much goodwill is there towards a politician who's

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introducing the latest step in his economic plans here in Westminster?

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Christmas is on the way. But before the celebrations, plans must be made.

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Before Father Christmas arrives, the Christmas tree needs to be

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prepared and decorated for the presents.

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The Chancellor is trying to do something similar with

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the economy - years of planning and watching the pennies before

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accepting the economic presents that he hopes are on the way.

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But the Chancellor is confident that the economy has turned a corner

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and that his economic strategy is about to bear fruit.

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Justin Williams works in the family business.

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Frongoch gardening centre by Caernarfon

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started off as a farm shop in the 1980s but they had to

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diversify over the years in order to respond to the demands of the market.

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In the last six years, we have started a cafe

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and have developed that side of things so food

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and people going out for a cuppa is very important to us.

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It ensures that people come here year round,

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through the winter, so that side has been important.

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The recession has affected us

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and we have two realise how people want to spend.

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People want good value for money.

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So we are here to advise and to ensure that they buy carefully.

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But the Labour Party is reading a different story.

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They are saying that though the economic figures are moving

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in the right direction, it is a recovery for the minority.

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With wages having stayed still and the cost of living rising,

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they are arguing that most people do not feel that things are improving.

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Like almost everybody else, Enid Lloyd Thomas,

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who runs the cafe in the garden centre, has seen

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the price of fuel and food rise appreciably over the last few years.

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Living in Anglesey, she has been able to find work easily enough,

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but it has not been the same for her friends.

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There is enough work in catering, but a lot of my friends have

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moved away to Cardiff or to England, to Chester.

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There is definitely more work away.

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Did they want to move, or did they have to?

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I think they had to in order to pursue their careers.

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It depends what you decide to do, of course.

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But there are definitely more opportunities in other places.

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We have already heard that help towards fuel costs is one of

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the presents that is likely to be in the Chancellor's snack on Thursday.

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He proposes to reduce fuel costs by around £50 a year

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and it is envisaged that married couples

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and civil partners will have to pay fewer taxes.

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There are suggestions that the increase in business taxes

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will be capped in order to encourage businesses and the high street.

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But what would the garden centre's customers like to

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hear from the Chancellor?

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I think he wants to look at what families are spending, to see

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what is causing waste and what is needed,

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especially in a rural area like Wales.

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You need a car to travel about,

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so how will he help people in approval areas?

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Is there anything the government could be doing to help you?

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Not to help me, no. I think I have enough.

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I'm retired so what the state gives me is enough, to be honest.

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I think it would be better if they helped young people. We get enough.

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So the people of Caernarfon would like a mixture of things

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in the economic stocking.

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But we shall see tomorrow what presents the Chancellor has to offer.

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James Williams and Vaughan, we have had a good luck at the stocking.

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George Osborne has shown most of his presents already.

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He has shown a bit of leg!

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Not many people can say, like that woman, that they have enough.

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There is a lot of pressure on him but he has a lot of freedom this time.

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The economy is growing better than expected,

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although there is doubt about its sustainability.

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But he has some kind of flexibility.

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We know some of the things he has done

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because they have already been announced,

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for instance that there will be free school meals for children in England.

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That means extra money for Wales

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but it is unlikely that Wales will follow the same pattern.

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We also know that there will be some kind of change in the tax

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which will benefit married couples and also, we know that petrol tax

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will be frozen

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and that there will be a cap on business rates.

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So, much of what he has said is already public,

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but it is certain that there will be the odd surprise. There always is.

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Glyn Davies, he wants the agenda back as well, doesn't he?

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To all intents and purposes, Labour is setting it at the moment.

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That is, the living costs.

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Everybody is discussing that and that's Ed Miliband's theme.

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The cost of living is important. I'm not sure...

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You said it was Ed Miliband's theme, I know that.

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But in Westminster it isn't like that.

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What we are going to see is something steady.

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We have already heard a lot and usually,

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there will be something new and unexpected.

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-There are still cuts to come, aren't there?

-Yes, I know that.

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We are turning a corner

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but the deficit is still £100 billion a year.

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Debts are still going up. We still have problems.

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But things are better than they were and better than expected.

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Rhian, you live here in London. We can see growth everywhere.

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Vaughan and I were discussing earlier. You can see growth.

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You can't see it in Wales. It is a different world.

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It is a very different world and as a Cardi in London,

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it is a very difficult world to live in.

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What worries me most, whether in Cardiff or London...

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we're talking about the cost of living.

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Wages aren't going up, yet the cost of rent...

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we were talking earlier on about rent in London. Rent in London is bonkers.

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That's the only word I can use to describe it.

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Rents are going up in Wales as well but wages are not.

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But there is growth. Deian Hopkin, he is doing something right.

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Definitely.

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And on the macro level, you can see the statistics

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indicate there is growth, possibly better than the rest of Europe.

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But when you break down that growth, you will see a big difference.

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You mention London.

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London is an island, and central London is an island.

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If you go to the periphery of London, the south

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and the east, you will see a different pattern.

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But is there too much centralisation in London regarding the economy?

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Possibly, one of the great problems facing us

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is the over-emphasis on the financial industry.

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2,700 people in London earn £1 million a year.

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But nurses and teachers and so on...

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It depends where you live in Britain. And also how old you are.

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Young people are suffering more.

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Glyn Davies, does George Osborne visit rural Wales occasionally?

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-No, he doesn't. Does he understand?

-He talks to me.

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What do you say to him?

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I will be talking to George Osborne tomorrow morning.

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-I talk to George Osborne every month.

-Does he listen?

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He listens sometimes. Sometimes he doesn't listen.

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That's what I would expect.

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As a member of Parliament from rural Wales, I can speak to

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George Osborne and David Cameron whenever I want.

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That is my situation.

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But the feeling I get sometimes, you remember back in the 1990s,

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John Major... people would talk about a voteless recovery.

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That is, that the economy would recover

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-but that it made no difference.

-I hope it isn't like that.

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There is a feeling that the clock is ticking to the general election

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but the opinion polls do not reflect that.

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What is important for George Osborne, the Chancellor,

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Is that if it works for five years,

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and that after five years people feel better than

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they did in the beginning, and that the economy is better in Britain,

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people will say he has done a good job. If people don't feel like that,

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there will be a bit more of a problem.

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Rhian, do you feel that things are improving?

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-We can see it in London but do you feel this growth?

-That is the thing.

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You asked whether George Osborne knows what is

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happening in rural Wales and the answer is probably no.

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He needs a bit of a reality check.

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People who live in the middle of London do not appreciate

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the challenge facing people who live in mid-Wales. We share that opinion.

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It is expensive to live in rural Wales

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because of the costs of the fuel and driving around.

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We are also seeing problems regarding health.

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The hospital I was born in, Bronglais,

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is having problems at the moment.

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So the growth can be seen in London but in Wales, I don't see it.

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I don't think ordinary people are going to see

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anything positive tomorrow.

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From the economy, education next.

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Could do better.

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Vaughan, did you get that on your school report?

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-In every subject, in every report!

-Apart from politics, maybe.

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That's the opinion of the international Pisa assessments

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on education standards in Wales.

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This week, it became clear that Welsh students has slipped

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in these tests in maths, reading and science.

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In no time at all, the Westminster education minister, Michael Gove,

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mocked education standards in Wales under the Labour leadership.

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We talked to a mother here in London who has experienced

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the system in Wales and also in England.

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As a mother, one of my priorities is to make sure my children

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can reach their full potential.

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I just want to make sure that they can do their best

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and they enjoy the experience.

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My eldest daughter is now studying for her GCSEs.

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To be honest, the education she receives here is similar

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to how she was educated in Plas Mawr.

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It isn't better or worse, it is very similar.

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Ruben used to attend Pwll Coch

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and now goes to the Welsh School, London.

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I think he's receiving a better education

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because the class is smaller.

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The school itself is smaller.

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In London, I know that a lot of tutoring takes place.

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When we first moved to London we were surprised

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how much tutoring was taking place even in primary schools.

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Some children aged four or five would start with the tutoring.

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I understand now because they want to prepare their children

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for secondary school.

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In London, there's a huge problem with getting your child

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into the right secondary school and this and the other.

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There's a lot of focus here on making sure your child

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has reached the level in reading, writing and numeracy.

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I feel there is pressure on parents,

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that their children have reached the level in those.

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It's more than I felt in Wales, to be honest.

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What we have to remember as well, on the whole,

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depending on where you are, but definitely in London,

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parents, I think, have more money to spend

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on tutoring, whereas in Wales and many areas

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money isn't available to do that.

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That's another reason why children are in front.

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compared to areas in Wales

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where there are more underprivileged areas.

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Since moving to London three years ago what I've noticed is

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there are huge expectations

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not just in schools, what they expect from the children

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but also more from the parents.

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The parents push all the time.

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The schools have to accomplish a lot and they expect their children

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to accomplish as well.

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The Pisa results, why is there so much emphasis on them?

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The reason for that is what happened three years ago.

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The 2009 figures were terrible.

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They showed a significant fall since 2006,

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the first time the tests were held in Wales.

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Pisa has been promoted to be a sort of higher test

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for education in Wales.

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That isn't fair. There are other measures.

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But Pisa has been placed, if you like, as a political

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measuring stick on the success of the Welsh Government.

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Deian Hopkin, as someone who look at the education system from outside

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what has gone wrong?

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I agree with Vaughan. You can't depend on a tower that bends,

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that is, Pisa.

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It is one assessment but who decides who will answer the questions?

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I am very doubtful when one city in China, Shanghai,

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is in the lead. What about the rest of China?

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There are many questions surrounding Pisa itself.

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There is a danger we are too comfortable in our education system.

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One thing we can say is, there are too many people

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are being educated outside the public system.

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That means emphasis is being placed on private education.

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We don't know how that influences on the entire system.

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Are you saying there's too much neurosis in Wales about Pisa?

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Yes. I think we have to look at education in its entirety.

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Are people comfortable in their education?

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Do they feel their accomplishing?

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If you ask children they do think that.

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They're creative.

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But saying that, I think we should have a system

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which maintains mathematics for longer than it currently does.

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But, Glyn Davies, Michael Gove sees this as another opportunity

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to mock Wales, not only just the health service but education

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and Labour's failures as he sees them.

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Yes, but...

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We've heard Michael Gove say that but what's more important

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to Michael Gove is education in England.

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Sometimes he mentions what happens in Wales...

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But how do you feel hearing your minister mocking Wales like that?

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To be honest, I don't do that myself.

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I want to work with the Assembly and I don't think that helps.

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If something like this happens, the Pisa results are important

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and people look at them, we have to have a political answer.

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I understand that.

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But I don't want to concentrate on that.

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There are many other ways to measure how things work.

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Rhian, it was right across the news yesterday

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Wales was seen as a poor example of education.

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How did that make you feel?

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I felt pity...

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I have many friends who are teachers.

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People like to tease them that they get a lot of holidays and so on.

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But the truth is I sympathise with teachers in this situation

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because I think the job of a teacher is much more difficult now.

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It isn't something that's...

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Sorry.

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I was going to say I think we're exaggerating this.

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If you look at the difference between the top and bottom

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the gap isn't as shocking as people say.

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But if this is an international measuring stick

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a pupil doesn't want to apply to a university like yours

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and say he's come from Wales and maybe GCSEs are seen as inferior

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they are going to worry.

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Pisa doesn't count at all in that kind of thing.

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It isn't part of the consideration.

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The truth is we look at general education.

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How can people be accomplished?

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This is one measure, a part of the picture,

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But what is interesting I think is,

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the Assembly was, and Glyn was there in the early days,

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obsessed with the foundation phase.

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Raising standards.

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Those early years in primary school.

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What Pisa is doing perhaps is say, look,

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there are other parts of the education system you didn't look at.

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There are figures which suggest

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that the early years at secondary school

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are important especially for boys in Wales.

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It places the focus on something else.

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That's something social.

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Look at the social difference in people's abilities

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and also racial.

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There are people from Chinese and Indian backgrounds

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who are doing much better.

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Is it something to do with the home life?

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Is there something..?

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There is an interesting point there.

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Ten years ago people were complaining that those doing poorly in school

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were young boys from the black community.

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Now, people say they're the young boys from the white community.

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But their parents are very keen.

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I've seen them in Lambeth and Brixton,

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they are keen to succeed.

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They are facing social disadvantages.

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Rhian, there's a role here for parents?

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I agree, there is a role for parents. I don't have children

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so I don't want this to seem as criticism.

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You have to look at education in its entirety.

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You can put Pisa to one side and look at education.

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Education isn't a political weapon.

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We have to have a cross-party answer to this.

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Thank you for now.

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Here in Westminster many familiar faces prowl the corridors.

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A few from Wales have already announced they won't stand

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in the next general election.

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Here are the impressions of two who, after years in Westminster,

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are preparing to say goodbye to life in the Palace.

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I won't miss all the travelling.

0:20:130:20:16

I won't miss the fact that almost every weekend is packed with work

0:20:160:20:22

linked to the job.

0:20:220:20:23

And I won't miss some of the late nights either.

0:20:230:20:27

But, overall, I will miss a few things, too.

0:20:270:20:31

The fact that every day is different,

0:20:310:20:34

the debates are different and interesting

0:20:340:20:36

and that you need to research and understand new subjects every week.

0:20:360:20:42

It's a completely unnatural world, in a way.

0:20:420:20:46

You live in a very small community.

0:20:460:20:50

Only a thousand or two thousand people work here,

0:20:500:20:54

so you have to get on with everyone.

0:20:540:20:59

'Advice for your successor?'

0:21:000:21:02

You have to develop a thick skin, roll you sleeves up,

0:21:020:21:07

put the hours in and don't forget that you can achieve things

0:21:070:21:12

by working together as often as arguing.

0:21:120:21:16

I remember of friend of mine, Kim Howells, saying,

0:21:160:21:20

"If you want advice, the only advice I can give you

0:21:200:21:24

"is not to take advice from an MP."

0:21:240:21:28

'What next?'

0:21:290:21:31

Some rest.

0:21:310:21:34

Everybody says more time with the family.

0:21:340:21:38

I will spend more time writing, giving lectures,

0:21:380:21:41

I'll go back to the legal world and I'll see granddaughters more often.

0:21:410:21:47

I'm looking forward to that.

0:21:470:21:50

I'll have more time to read

0:21:500:21:52

and I'll spend a lot of time fishing in the rivers of North Wales.

0:21:520:21:56

Glyn Davies, you're in Westminster, you've been at the Assembly.

0:22:000:22:04

In terms of culture, which do you prefer?

0:22:040:22:06

I enjoyed myself at the Assembly, to be honest.

0:22:060:22:09

I didn't want to lose my seat at the Assembly

0:22:090:22:13

but now I have to move forward.

0:22:130:22:16

I enjoy myself wherever I am

0:22:160:22:18

and I'm not stepping down, I'm standing in the next election.

0:22:180:22:21

The diplomat!

0:22:210:22:23

Deian Hopkin, have you ever been tempted to enter politics?

0:22:230:22:27

I was raised in a political family. I know the price they have to pay.

0:22:270:22:33

I wasn't willing to pay that price.

0:22:330:22:35

I'm happy trying to run a university unsuccessfully.

0:22:350:22:39

LAUGHTER

0:22:390:22:41

-You must have had offers.

-Yes, but terrible offers.

0:22:410:22:46

I was never offered somewhere safe like Montgomeryshire.

0:22:460:22:50

Safe?

0:22:500:22:51

LAUGHTER

0:22:510:22:54

Rhian, many are worried that a lot of women are leaving.

0:22:540:22:58

-There aren't enough women in Westminster.

-It's a concern.

0:22:580:23:01

We need some girl power. I think I'm far too sensitive to enter politics.

0:23:010:23:06

I face a lot of challenges at the centre, keeping people happy,

0:23:060:23:11

and I think politics would be a bigger challenge.

0:23:110:23:14

I suspect there is more politics at the London Welsh Centre

0:23:140:23:18

than in the House of Commons.

0:23:180:23:20

I'm saying nothing.

0:23:200:23:21

What about the second chamber? Is it completely different?

0:23:220:23:27

Oh, completely, but you have to immerse yourself in it

0:23:270:23:31

and that is a burden.

0:23:310:23:33

It's not an honour in itself, it's an obligation.

0:23:330:23:37

If people get that offer, they have to commit to it

0:23:370:23:40

and that is a different question.

0:23:400:23:43

I really admire what Hywel and Elfyn have done

0:23:430:23:47

but I think the situation for MPs in Westminster has changed

0:23:470:23:51

since devolution.

0:23:510:23:53

-I can see Deian in red!

-And the vermin!

0:23:530:23:57

Don't say that to my family!

0:23:570:23:59

Do you think you can influence from the backbenches, Glyn Davies?

0:23:590:24:04

You obviously speak to George Osborne every day.

0:24:040:24:07

More influence than I expected, to be honest,

0:24:070:24:10

but we can't see it.

0:24:100:24:12

Saying something in the chamber has no effect.

0:24:120:24:15

The only way to make a difference is to work with the government,

0:24:150:24:19

that's why I always vote in support of the government.

0:24:190:24:23

I want to make a difference, like with S4C this year.

0:24:230:24:28

So you're not stepping down.

0:24:280:24:30

"Carry on and on", as Mrs Thatcher once said.

0:24:300:24:34

Thank you for joining us on Y Sgwrs.

0:24:350:24:38

That's it for tonight.

0:24:380:24:41

We'll be back home next week to continue the debate in Cardiff.

0:24:410:24:45

From everyone on the team, from Westminster, good night.

0:24:450:24:48

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