21/05/2014 Y Sgwrs

Welcome back. Will you be voting tomorrow?

If so, who for?

We'll be focusing on the European elections tonight on Y Sgwrs.

Good evening.

Joining me tonight are Llyr Roberts,

a senior business lecturer at Coleg Cymraeg Cenedlaethol,

the journalist and business owner Iola Wyn,

and over in Dublin, a journalist with RTE, Bethan Kilfoil.

And as usual, Vaughan Roderick is here with his analysis.

Welcome to the programme.

There's only one subject tonight - Europe.

The polling booths will open at 7am tomorrow and, over the weekend,

people in 28 countries will choose their parliamentary members for

Brussels and Strasburg.

The successful candidates will decide how the Union spends its money,

they will legislate on issues like the environment,

workplace law and trade.

And four of them will represent Wales. Here's Janet Ebenezer.

# La mer

# Qu-on voit danser

# Le long des golfes clairs... #

Tomorrow, the people of the UK will vote to decide who

will represent us in the European parliament.

There are four seats in Wales

so let's hear from the five main parties.

They have the time it takes us to cook a crepe

to explain why people should vote for their party.

Une crepe au chocolat, s'il vous plait.

Plaid Cymru says it's the only party fighting for Wales' needs in Europe

and wants to see skilled migrants like doctors or lecturers

being encouraged to move to Wales.

Plaid Cymru is the only party to put Wales first.

What that means in Europe is a strong voice for the people of Wales

but also looking after Wales' needs and representing Wales' ambition.

We're not answerable to anyone in London, only the people of Wales.

We want to see Wales being transformed,

strengthening our economy.

The Tories say they're the only party to have promised to hold

a referendum on the European Union.

If you want reform in Europe, if you want to discuss our relationship

with Europe, and if you want to have your say on Europe,

you have to have a referendum, and only the Welsh Conservatives

can achieve all three of those things on May 22nd.

A vote for the Tories will bring about a significant change

to our relationship with Europe.

Only the Tories can achieve that for the people of Wales.

The Liberal Democrats emphasise the benefits to Wales

of being part of the European Union, by saying one in ten jobs in Wales

rely on trade EU trade.

It's important in terms of jobs. One in ten jobs in Wales

now relies on Europe.

As well as that, the money that comes from structural funds

and in agriculture.

It also gives us an opportunity to discuss with our European partners

in terms of improving the environment

and protecting the future of our children in Europe.

UKIP hopes to win a seat by campaigning for a referendum

to leave the European Union.

I want everyone to think about pulling out of Europe

so that we can have our country back.

We're losing out. For every pound we get for farmers in grants,

we're spending over two pounds.

We've lost close to £9 billion a year.

It's important that we get our villages back.

I think it's important that we get our country back.

According to Labour, they're the only party to offer solid policies

to deal with the cost of living crisis.

Welsh Labour has secured a further £500 million of investment

over the next five years.

We're also fighting to protect people's rights in the workplace

and we must remember that 190,000 jobs here in Wales rely on Europe.

It's vital that we stay within the European Union.

We also have an opportunity to send a message to David Cameron

to say we're not happy with his policies.

We want two seats for Labour in Europe.

The five parties have completed the challenge

but we'll have to wait until Sunday to find out who has won seats

in the European parliament.

In the meantime, I'm going to enjoy this crepe au chocolat.

De nouveau a vous dans le studio, Bethan.

# Pour la vie. #

Merci bien.

Show off! Show off!

Janet Ebenezer, there.

There are 11 parties standing in Wales

and a list of all the candidates is on the BBC website

and the details are on the screen.

Vaughan, this campaign has garnered a lot of attention.

Which party has had the best campaign?

Well, it's hard to tell who has had the best campaign

because there isn't a visible campaign.

People have received leaflets, phone calls, seen stalls, maybe,

but it's hard to campaign in every part

of large constituencies like Wales.

Every party, bar Labour,

there are parts of Wales where they have no presence.

The big story of the campaign in the media is UKIP.

Whether that has benefited UKIP or damaged UKIP, we'll see.

The publicity hasn't all been favourable,

but in one sense the party has achieved something

which hasn't happened in Britain before -

Europe was the main talking point during the campaign.

That is unusual.

In the past, all kinds of things - send a message to the government

or another issue arises.

This time, Europe has been central to the debate.

That's a development which might increase the number of people who

turn out to vote, because the numbers that usually turn out

in these elections are very low.

Have you've been bombarded with leaflets in the west, Iola Wyn?

I don't know about very low, but it's been a very boring campaign.

I've travelled... I was in Llanarth yesterday, for example.

I was in Talyllychau today.

I haven't seen anything on the side of the roads.

I saw one field near Llandeilo with the Welsh Conservatives.

It's difficult in the west.

I was in Llanarth yesterday and there's a noticeboard in the town

and I decided to take a look

and the names and addresses of the candidates

in these elections were there.

I was looking for the names of their homes

and noticed how few have homes in the west or come from the west.

There was one or two in Port Talbot or Swansea.

Because people don't recognise them, they're not interested.

In terms of the themes,

has immigration taken in parts of west Wales?

Not the same immigration.

In terms of the Welsh-speaking community,

there's concern about immigration from over Offa's Dyke,

more so than people coming from other European countries.

The feeling is that Welsh-speaking communities

change overnight.

I've been living there for seven or eight years

and I've seen a big change - not immigrants from Europe

but English people coming in, and that's a bigger concern.

But because it's a British picture or campaign...

or an English picture in reality,

that's not raised - I've never heard UKIP talking about that

It's always the English language and protecting the English language.

In terms of the business world, Llyr,

in terms of trade with Europe,

is that an important theme for the electorate?

Not the electorate, no. I think they switch off straight away

with any business story, unfortunately.

The public aren't interested.

When you cut it down, if you say jobs instead of business,

there's an interest in jobs - economic subjects.

But once you use the word "business"...

And the money from Europe - that has been important in Wales.

Certainly in the media...

and I'm sure it has been in west Wales and mid Wales

and the Valleys - areas which receive European funding.

But in the south-east, I haven't seen much talk about it.

The campaigning that I've come across has been very UK-based.

Let's go to a country with a different kind of campaign.

What's the atmosphere and the enthusiasm like in Ireland, Bethan?

I don't know about enthusiasm,

but it's been a lively and colourful campaign.

There are plenty of posters around the country.

We have two by-elections and local county council elections as well.

The voting takes place on Friday here, not tomorrow.

I don't think there's a lamppost in the country

that has not got at least three posters on it.

In terms of themes, it is completely different here.

Europe itself hasn't been a talking point.

Immigration isn't an issue or a factor here in Ireland.

Emigration is the main problem here because of the economic recession.

It has only...

If Europe has come up as a talking point at all,

it is because of the economy.

Some people blame the banks in Europe and the IMF

and the European Bank and Germany for the strict financial measures

that have been set in Ireland.

But for every person who complains about that,

and some of the parties take advantage of that,

but for every person who complains, another will say that without Europe

and Germany and the IMF,

we would still be in an economic shambles.

They are thankful to Europe for starting to bring Ireland

out of the recession.

To what degree could this election transform things for Sinn Fein

because I've seen that Sinn Fein is expected to win a seat

in every electorate, despite the trouble with Gerry Adams.

That is one of the interesting things.

It will be interesting to see how Sinn Fein do.

We have been cut from four to three constituencies.

Sinn Fein are bound to win in Dublin,

will almost certainly win in the south,

and maybe in the central region.

That would be a big change.

The independent parties are also going to do well.

How much of a protest against the Government this will be

because of the economy and government policies,

or how much of a positive vote for Sinn Fein,

because Sinn Fein oppose the government on almost everything,

especially the economy.

The arrest of Gerry Adams has been an interesting factor.

It hasn't had much of an effect

on the way people say they will vote.

The opinion polls show that support for Sinn Fein has gone up

since the arrest of Gerry Adams, although almost half of the people

in one opinion poll said they don't believe what he was saying.

They think Gerry Adams is lying

but they will still vote for Sinn Fein.

In a way, what has happened with the arrest

possibly won't affect the vote.

Certainly not on Sinn Fein's party faithful.

Perhaps people who had thought about voting for Sinn Fein

but Sinn Fein have been careful to choose new, fresh faces,

young people who aren't from the same background

as the old Sinn Fein.

And that has ignited the campaign there.

Why is the European election not grabbing people's attention here?

It divides the parties but doesn't interest the people.

Why not?

I think it's because they don't understand.

There are so many different levels.

We talk of Europe and we talk about Westminster,

which has other powers,

and then we come down to the Assembly.

People don't know what they are voting for.

Do people know what they do in Europe?

No, they don't.

We ask people and I doubt people would be able to name the MEPs,

not to mention say what they do.

The point I would make, unlike other elections

like parliamentary, Assembly and local elections,

the percentage who vote in the European election

has been increasing.

The lowest vote in the European elections

was the vote in 1999 when it was down to 24% in Wales.

It's now above 30%.

Which is still very low.

It is, but it doesn't follow the same pattern as other elections

where there's less interest today then 15 or 20 years ago.

I think Iola was right when she said people's don't know the candidates.

With local elections, they know their local councillors.

The same with the Assembly elections.

Is the patch too big - a whole country?

They're voting for parties rather than individuals.

This time, as well, perhaps, three of the individuals

are quite new faces.

They aren't familiar faces to the electorate.

I've spoken to them and they try to go everywhere in the constituency

-but it's huge.

-Massive.

And how do you get that relationship

when everyone reads the newspapers from England?

I'd expect to have pamphlets through my letterbox

but they've only come from two parties in Westmi... St Clear's!

I'm giving myself too much credit!

The Palace of St Clear's!

But two parties have delivered pamphlets

which shows that people don't feel very strongly about this.

-They don't have fire in their bellies.

-Will you be voting?

I will be voting because I feel I am duty bound to do so.

On European issues or domestic issues?

I'll be voting because I think we have a duty to.

If I don't, I don't have the right to complain.

But will Europe decide?

My views on Europe will be leading my judgment.

Some will vote.

I don't want to sound like the old lady of Kidwelly

but I think the numbers will be low because of the weather.

The weather could effect different parties,

depending on the age of voters and so on.

There was one party which showed me a weather forecast

and said it will be wet everywhere apart from the north-west.

They were delighted with that. You can guess who.

Let's move on.

Staying with Europe, tomorrow won't be a referendum

but there has been plenty of talk of one throughout the campaign.

The last time Britain voted on its relationship with Europe

was back in 1975.

Vaughan remembers it well.

June 5th 1975, and the question for the voters was,

should the UK stay in the Common Market?

It was one of the 64% who voted that day -

the first time I voted.

There were lively campaigns on both sides.

There's absolutely no doubt about this.

We're getting the message across.

People realise that there's no benefits come froing the EEC.

They realise the dangers of staying in.

They realise there's a positive alternative for Britain.

When we started the campaign and this is no way due to us,

it's due to the awareness of the Welsh people,

we were way behind in terms of opinion.

Now we are slightly ahead.

But there was no doubt about the result.

Contrary to what the polls suggested months earlier,

more than 67% voted in favour of staying in the European Community

and Prime Minister Harold Wilson was delighted.

The British people, in clear and unmistakable terms,

have made their historic decision,

that Britain shall remain a member of the European Community.

Every county in Wales voted in favour.

Powys was the county with the highest Yes vote - 74%.

Mid Glamorgan had the lowest percentage, with 56% voting Yes.

Will there be an opportunity for voters to have their say again?

That's another question.

I was looking at the flairs there!

There's nothing better than archive footage.

The day of the European referendum was my 18th birthday.

I'm not that old!

I celebrated my birthday with my first vote.

At that time, the parties were almost completely different on Europe.

The Conservatives were in favour of being in Europe.

There were some exceptions, like Enoch Powell.

The Liberals were where you'd expect - in favour of staying in.

Labour was divided.

Wilson brought up the issue. It was a farce, to be honest.

Not much had changed.

But it was enough to change the opinion polls.

Until two months before the referendum,

they suggested there would be a No vote.

But as can happen in a referendum, fear kicked in,

"What happens if...?"

Wilson won comfortably in the end.

The people against at the time were people like Tony Benn

and the left of the Labour Party, the unions, Barbara Castle,

and the far-right - that hasn't changed.

The National Front was in favour of pulling out of Europe.

Europe, Bethan, has always divided political parties,

especially the Conservatives.

During your time as a European correspondent for BBC Wales,

they were always divided.

Has Cameron managed to bring the party together,

compared to Hague, on this?

It's difficult to say.

Europe still divides parties.

It divides parties and still divides Conservative members.

I think that's as true today as it was then

or they wouldn't have to offer a referendum.

It's still a problem for David Cameron. It's a deep problem.

When it comes to a referendum, we know that there will be one

if David Cameron is in power by 2017.

Whatever is renegotiated, there will be one.

-That would grab people's attention, Iola.

-Would it?

I'm not so sure.

I feel that if there isn't a clear campaign

and people know exactly what they are voting for

and what the consequences of that might be,

then it's not fair.

People have to understand exactly what they're voting for.

-It's a simple question.

-Is it?

Yes, but people who are against it will think it's a simple question.

What's more difficult is how you inspire people

who want to who want to stay in or who are uncertain.

Trying to get them out to vote.

Especially after the problems of the last four years

with the euro and so on, people who were in favour of staying in

may be more likely to vote to leave.

If you look at the forecasts,

during the time the UKIP vote has been increasing,

the support for staying in the Common Market, the EU,

has also been increasing.

It's probably because the economy has been improving.

If the economy is healthy,

we don't want anything that could change that.

Bethan, it has been said recently that Britain needs to be treated

a little differently.

How is Britain viewed from Ireland?

Are we seen as making a fuss again?

What's the opinion?

It would be very difficult for Ireland if Britain pulled out.

Ireland has most of its trade with Britain.

It will create so many problems.

This kind of thing does not come up in Ireland.

Ireland has done well out of Europe over the years.

It's never talked about.

Sinn Fein is the only party that has been against Europe in the past.

But they have changed their tune a little bit now.

Ireland will be hoping that Britain stays in.

Llyr, will the other parties offer a referendum?

I don't think Labour will. They won't.

Plaid Cymru won't either.

-I don't think the other parties will offer one.

-Vaughan?

Well, if Labour was going to offer a referendum,

they would have done so by now.

Any damage the Labour Party would suffer from not having

a referendum has already happened.

It would look like a panic reaction if they did offer a referendum now.

But there is agreement between the parties

that a referendum will have to be held

if there is a change in the European Constitution.

How is David Cameron hoping to renegotiate it?

Is it possible that changes can be made?

I think that will be easier than some of the other things

the Conservatives would like to see.

You can opt out of something that doesn't mean much

and is a declaration of principle.

It is much more difficult to make changes that will affect

all the countries financially.

Thank you very much. That is all for tonight.

Thank you to our guests and to you for your company.

We won't have a programme during half-term

but we will be back in a fortnight.

Thanks for watching. Good night.