16/07/2014 Y Sgwrs

Cameron's new Cabinet and marking 50 days before Newport welcomes the world's global leaders.

Welcome to Y Sgwrs.

Good evening, and welcome.

Joining Vaughan and me tonight we have three chatty guests -

Professor Richard Wyn Jones from the Wales Governance Centre, broadcaster

Branwen Gwyn and Iestyn Davies from the Federation of Small Businesses.

We got a full house tonight. Welcome. We've got plenty to discuss.

It's the last programme of the political term,

so we get to look both forwards and backwards.

We also consider the NATO summit in Newport -

with all its complicated planning and strict security detail, is it more trouble than it is worth?

Schools are going to close for the day.

It's going to be difficult to travel around the city.

You know, it's going to have a big impact on people

and local businesses are going to lose out financially.

First tonight, forget the drama of Rio and the World Cup.

Downing Street hosted the big battle between the Veterans

and the Youth Team.

David Cameron has a new team that is younger and more female

and he says he's ready to fight the next general election.

Bethan Lewis reminds us who plays in what position on the back bench.

He's a big fan of Liverpool Football Club but like his team,

it's been a disappointing end of season for David Jones.

The Welsh Secretary's invitation to visit Number 10 didn't bode well.

On Tuesday it was confirmed that the MP for Preseli Pembrokeshire,

Stephen Crabb, had been promoted to the Cabinet first team.

He is now the Welsh Secretary.

Congratulations, Minister,

will you fix the relationship with the Welsh Government?

Thank you very much. I'm looking forward to getting on with the job.

He's said to have a better relationship than his predecessor

with the Welsh government and his fellow Tory colleagues.

It is hoped that will lead to more cooperation in future.

Alun Cairns, the MP for the Vale of Glamorgan,

is going to flank Stephen Crabb's and replace him in the Welsh Office.

A former Welsh Secretary himself, before the days of devolution,

William Hague is going to leave the Foreign Office.

That news came as a shock to many.

The Prime Minister wants to put his skills to use in another position.

He will now be the Leader of the House of Commons

until next May's general election, when he steps down as an MP.

Philip Hammond moves from his former position of Defence Secretary

to replace him as Foreign Secretary.

In another shock move, Michael Gove was stripped of his Education Secretary shirt.

Radical and determined, he was unpopular with teachers

and much of the electorate.

He and Welsh ministers have shared a few heavy tackles.

He is now Chief Whip.

It is an important role, but a very different one.

Nicky Morgan will succeed him as Education Secretary.

She is an unfamiliar face, one of the new additions to government.

David Cameron has his eyes on the prize

and hopes that with his team he can win the next general election.

That was Bethan Lewis.

Vaughan Roderick, how much difference will Stephen Crabb make?

I think personalities are important when it comes to the relationship

between the Welsh Government and the Westminster Government.

I think had different personalities been in the Welsh Office in the past,

there would have been fewer public arguments.

I think there would have been fewer legal challenges mounted

for further powers for the Welsh government, for example.

The row over electrification of the railways perhaps wouldn't have been as public as it was.

Having said that, of course, there are good political reasons for the

Westminster Government to attack the Labour Government in Wales.

I don't expect the criticism over the state of the NHS to stop.

I think, on a day-to-day, pragmatic level,

this will oil the wheels between the Cardiff Bay government

and the government in London.

And also between the main opposition in Cardiff Bay and the Welsh Office.

Richard Wyn Jones.

On the issue of devolution, how much difference is there

between him and his predecessor, David Jones?

Labour has already dug up the quotations and reminded us

of the fact that Stephen Crabb was very sceptical about devolution.

He has since softened his stance and is more pragmatic.

I think Vaughan's point is key.

We have seen some very prominent, public schisms

in the Welsh Conservative Party before,

arguments between Andrew Davies and David Jones.

There was a big falling out in the Conservative Party in Cardiff Bay.

That couldn't continue.

Downing Street was very angry about what happened within the party

and they gave David Jones a kick up the backside.

I think Andrew Davies was also roughed up.

The four members who were suspended

have since been brought back into the fold.

Those things are definitely linked.

Branwen, these are the biggest political anoraks in Wales

and are in their element.

To what degree does reshuffling personalities make a difference?

What strikes me is the number of women that have been included.

I only hope that they will be judged on the work that they carry out,

rather than the fact they're female.

Did you read the Daily Mail this morning?

Yes, that's what I'm talking about.

I get a lot of my news online and through social networking.

This business about making comments about their outfit,

their hair and make-up, that's complete nonsense.

So I hope they are going to be judged on the quality of that work.

In terms of the Cabinet reshuffle, has it really been transformed?

To some extent I think it has moved more to the right.

The danger is... If you make a move to the left or the right

that's up to you but if you make a big shift like that

almost overnight, to try to respond to the party faithful,

that will make a difference to the kind of policies that the Cabinet will produce.

But, I don't know whether Richard agrees with me or not,

but I feel that this reshuffle is a bit of a gamble

and it suggests to me that the private poll statistics

for the Conservative Party

might be even worse than the public ones that we get to see.

This suggests that talking non-stop about the long-term economic plan

and demonising Ed Miliband simply isn't enough.

Is it a gamble from Cameron?

Is he trying to change things ahead of the election?

There is less than a year to go. They are behind in the polls.

The electoral system doesn't favour the Conservatives as it is.

I think Cameron currently stands to lose the next general election, so he needs to make a change.

When you speak to people,

they say the same for the other political leaders.

We are looking for a prominent leader in politics.

Branwen, to what degree have UKIP and Nigel Farage dictated this change?

They've thought, "They're to our right. We must move to the right."

He has moved Philip Hammond to the Foreign Office, for example.

Do you think people will notice that?

Time will tell, I suppose. We will have to wait and see.

Wait and see what kind of work these people carry out.

But UKIP supporters will notice that Michael Gove has left his position,

and I think UKIP supporters tend to like Michael Gove.

The reshuffle is quite contradictory in that sense.

But I think they are trying to make an impression here.

It's not really about the names,

because people generally don't know the names of many Cabinet members,

apart from Clegg, Cameron, Osborne...

-And Gove.

-And Gove. The rest are just faces.

I don't think they can make much of an impression in a year,

so they are trying to portray themselves

as a forward-thinking, purposeful government.

I think the policies will move to the right,

I think that's inevitable.

You're not going to see these kinds of personalities drawing up middle ground policies.

This matters to the world of business as well,

clarity on Britain's position within Europe.

Do you think Philip Hammond will give us more clarity?

He said if there was a referendum tomorrow,

he would vote us out of Europe.

I think that is the effect that UKIP has had on the Conservative Party.

On one hand, the policies will change, but there isn't a strong

political figure that can lead any of these parties at the moment.

Thanks for now. David Cameron, Philip Hammond, Carwyn Jones, Barack Obama

and other political figures will gather in Newport in 50 days.

There's lots of planning that has to take place ahead of a NATO summit

and it's bound to have an effect on the area.

There will be strict security measures, congestion and protests.

Some schools have already announced a day off.

Not everybody welcomes the summit.

The former British representative to the UN, Emyr Jones Parry,

has told Y Sgwrs that we should take advantage of the event.

Janet Ebenezer reports.

In 1990 Margaret Thatcher was Prime Minister

an it was the last time a NATO summit was held here in Britain.

This is how it looked 22 years later in Chicago, two years ago.

Some say that summit gave the local economy

a boost of a couple of million dollars.

With the promise that Obama and his entourage are on their way to Wales,

the country is reminded it has never hosted an official visit by an US president.

Former president Jimmy Carter did visit Llyn Clywedog in the '80s.

Whenever we get a chance to go to a foreign country,

we try to find a place where there's fly fishing.

In just 50 days, 28 global leaders will gather to debate the future of NATO,

government spending on the armed forces and withdrawal from Afghanistan.

There will also be questions on how NATO should react to Russia

and the crisis in Ukraine.

All of the decisions will be made here

in the 5-star Celtic Manor Hotel.

First Minister Carwyn Jones doesn't want to miss out this week,

in a press briefing he said that the Welsh Government

wanted to take advantage of the international event.

A former British representative to the UN, Emyr Jones Parry,

says that will be a challenge as leaders concentrate on summit matters.

It's very important for Wales.

The ministers will obviously be looking at NATO.

So, we need to take every opportunity

to showcase Wales and Welsh produce to the visitors.

But, as we saw two years ago in Chicago,

the summit brought with it protests against war in Afghanistan,

climate change and union rights.

We are expecting similar protests in Newport in September.

It is hoped they will not turn violent

but there are concerns over the impact

such a busy summit could have on the local area.

The schools are going to be closed.

It will be difficult to travel around the city

and it's going to have a big effect on people.

Local businesses are going to lose money.

This is an opportunity for children now to see leaders like Obama

and Angela Merkel.

This is an event that only takes place once in 40 years or so.

People will remember that more

than the fact that they lost two hours of school.

The local MP has been very forthright in his criticism

of the war in Iraq, but he welcomes the NATO summit.

We are part of NATO in Wales.

So, we need to give the NATO summit a Welsh welcome

and a Newport welcome.

It will be a wonderful occasion.

The eyes of the world will certainly be on Newport on September 4.

But the question is, once the politicians have left,

will there be any long-term benefits?

And will the world have learned that there's more to Wales

than Tom Jones and Catherine Zeta?

Branwen, do summits like this put Wales on the map?

That's the aim, but is it a myth?

I don't know if it will, to be honest.

I don't know if people visit places or go on holiday somewhere and say,

"We'll have to go there

"because the NATO summit was held there one year."

What about the Ryder Cup? Did that bring tourists in?

I think that would be more popular.

But I question whether the world leaders will even remember

that they have been to Wales after the visit.

Some of them might think that they are have been to England.

So I'm not sure.

But I do hope that Wales and Newport will benefit from it.

As someone who lives in Newport, Iestyn,

have you seen any signs of the preparations for the NATO summit?

No, not at the moment. There's a lot of talk about the roads not being closed.

But I think that's unlikely.

I'm sure it will have an impact,

but I'll be in Manchester anyway, so I don't mind!

Are You looking forward to the cavalcade, and so on?

Richard Wyn Jones,

perhaps you remember the European summit in Cardiff in 1998?

Everyone was here. We had the Queen, Nelson Mandela.

Everybody said it would put Wales on the map,

but did that actually happen?

I'm very sceptical about this.

These leaders will be in Wales for a very short time.

Less than 24 hours overall.

The security arrangements will be extremely strict.

Even before we had this obvious connection

between ISIS in Iraq and Cardiff,

the people in charge of security were very nervous,

but now I think they'll be having kittens.

The security arrangements will be tight.

Schools will be closed in Newport.

They're talking about closing schools in the Vale of Glamorgan.

So, you are not welcoming it?

I think it's going to be a massive inconvenience for local people.

And yet, this is politics on the highest level. Obama will be here.

All these leaders will come to Newport.

But they will be in their little bubble

and it'll be really difficult to actually get to see them,

because the security arrangements are going to be extremely strict.

They'll fly in and then out again, Vaughan.

They don't really know where they are, do they?

It doesn't really matter, to be honest.

The question is, whether or not the Welsh Government can take

advantage of the fact that we will have thousands of journalists here.

They tried to do that in 1998 in Cardiff.

Perhaps you were there,

because there was a big press party in Cardiff Bay.

All the international press were invited.

I went there and I knew everyone because they were Welsh freeloaders!

They weren't international journalists.

I've been talking to people in the government who deal with these things and it is a problem.

They know there is an opportunity there,

but how do you take advantage of that opportunity

in a way that is not wasteful, expensive and ineffective?

There's also a question about just how prepared Wales is to work

with the British agencies to boost the Welsh profile abroad.

Unless we fix those problems,

whatever happens afterwards or even ahead of this big event,

we need to make sure we've got the facilities

and that agencies are cooperating.

That's a good question. When David Cameron shakes Obama's hand,

is he going to be saying, "Come and do business here in Wales."

Or is he going to be saying, come to England?

They will be here for a short time and they have lots of things to discuss.

For instance, the dangerous situation between Russia and Ukraine

and they're pulling out of Afghanistan.

We've had the agenda tonight, haven't we?

They want to avoid looking like they've lost.

Selling Wales isn't going to be high on the agenda at the summit.

That's just an additional aspect of it.

But the menu, the treats in the hotel and things like that,

that will sell Wales, won't it?

Lava bread and lamb!

I think everything will be quite traditional.

The things you'd expect. Lava bread, Welsh cakes.

Things that we eat every day, of course.

That's it. Thanks for now.

Finally tonight, politicians in Westminster and Cardiff Bay

are preparing for the long summer recess,

in order to work hard in their constituencies, of course.

As we say goodbye to another political year,

Vaughan looks back now at some of the events that will stick in the memory.

In November, David Cameron and Nick Clegg visited Cardiff Bay

to announce new devolved powers which would enable the Assembly to borrow money and set taxes.

But that wasn't the end of it.

In the spring, the Silk Commission recommended that further powers should be devolved,

including, among other things, policing and large energy projects.

Powers for the future, maybe.

But already devolved matters were also put under the microscope.

The standard of the Welsh NHS was criticised by the Prime Minister.

David Cameron said Offa's Dyke was the line between life and death.

Carwyn Jones said it was a war on Wales.

But the Labour MP Ann Clwyd, was also critical of the NHS in Wales.

The standard of services was also at the root of another big announcement.

The Williams Commission concluded

that the number of councils had to be reduced and Carwyn Jones agreed.

There was no shortage of sackings this year either.

Andrew R.T. Davies sacked four members of his cabinet

after they refused to vote with the group on devolving income tax.

He welcomed them back today.

Leanne Wood gave Dafydd Elis-Thomas the boot

as chairman of the environment committee

after he criticised her comments on UKIP.

And Alun Davies was axed by Carwyn Jones after he asked civil servants

for the CAP payment details of some members of the opposition parties.

There was an axe in Westminster as well this week

as David Jones lost his job to Stephen Crabb.

And of course, it was a year when Wales went to the polling booths.

The big story was the success of Nigel Farage's party.

What's to come after the summer?

Well, with the Scottish referendum on the horizon

and the general election shortly afterwards,

things are sure to heat up once again.

Richard Wyn Jones, more and more powers are being devolved to Cardiff Bay.

Too quickly, some would say.

But in terms of borrowing powers,

we have seen them today in practice, over the M4.

Yes, we've been talking about risk

and the Welsh Government took a massive gamble today.

It's using all the money it can borrow and more

to spend on 15 miles of road in Newport.

So it is spending all the money in just one small corner of Wales,

which might annoy the rest of the country.

It's not clear either whether or not the members within the Labour Party itself even support this.

-Is it a mistake?

-It's a big risk.

Politically, I wonder whether Edwina Hart

and Carwyn Jones have really thought this through.

Legally, and we've heard it on tonight's programme,

it's possible that people are going to consult lawyers to see

whether there is the possibility of a judicial inquiry.

And in the Assembly today, Mick Antoniw

raised the real possibility that the Welsh Government

has made a legal error.

So I think this is a really big story breaking today.

Looking back at the year, is there a feeling that politics in Wales

and the Assembly's identity is maturing?

I think with these new powers it's quite possible.

We'll have to wait and see what happens in Scotland,

because that might encourage us to go in the same direction.

In terms of what has been happening during the political term,

what has stood out, Vaughan?

What has been the most significant thing?

What sticks out for me isn't perhaps the most significant thing,

but I think the most significant thing was the High Court verdict,

sorry, the Supreme Court decision earlier this month, which, to me,

if I understand the verdict correctly,

means that the Assembly is going to get a massive increase in powers

through judicial decisions instead of through legal, parliamentary, political decisions.

But, for me, what really sticks out as the year's top story

is the story of Alun Davies.

Alun Davies' fall from grace and the story behind that

has been one of the biggest events in the Assembly.

Just in terms of the story itself,

the man himself and the nature of his fall.

Looking forward, Iestyn,

you are responsible for your institution in Scotland as well.

Scotland will be a massive story, won't it?

The question isn't really what the referendum decision will be,

but what any additional powers will mean.

Even if there's a 'Yes' vote in the referendum,

how will those policies develop over the short term.

And we'll see for the first time the constitutional changes

that Vaughan has mentioned starting to pull Britain in two directions.

That's inevitable.

It will create challenges for the BBC and agencies like ours,

and everyone trying to operate on a UK level.

It's really hard to predict it, isn't it, Richard?

This could be the biggest political story of our lifetime.

What happens on September 18 could be the biggest story in our political lives.

Or it could be a story that will still be significant, but less important

and we'll be looking forward to the general election as the next big event.

-And then the Assembly elections.

-They're like buses!

It's great for people like me.

Branwen, is the Scottish vote the biggest event on the horizon for you?

Yes. I've got no idea how it's going to go

because I change my mind every day.

Personally, I would like to see it happen.

The Yes vote is not in the lead at the moment.

But Alex Salmond is a great politician.

What has he got up his sleeve?

The question is how far behind are they?

The opinions polls are very different.

It depends on your polling company.

Some of them suggest it's very close, with 5% or 6% in it.

That can be overcome quite easily.

But others say the independence campaign is far behind.

-What's going to happen?

-It will be very close.

-On the fence!

Thank you very much. That's all for tonight's programme and the series

but Y Sgwrs will be back in the autumn,

when we will no doubt be discussing events in Scotland again.

Until then, from all of us here, good night.