Portillo on Salmond


Portillo on Salmond

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This is an amazing moment.

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When I started to make this documentary about Alex Salmond,

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I thought it might be his political obituary

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because Labour were ahead in the polls, favourites to win this election.

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Now he returns to Edinburgh in triumph, the only First Minister

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to be re-elected for a second term and the first to have an overall

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majority, with a mandate to put to the Scottish people a referendum on independence.

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How did he do it?

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'It's six o'clock on Tuesday the 5th of April. Good morning.

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'This is Today with Justin Webb and Evan Davis.

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'The headlines this morning - there is heavy fighting in and around Ivory Coast's biggest city.

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'UN helicopters have attacked the presidential compound.

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'Government plans to give poorer children a better hope...'

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My political career was spent at Westminster.

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But because my mother is Scottish, I've often travelled north of the border.

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It's evident to me that in Scotland, politics is dominated by one man.

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Alex Salmond, to my mind, is the only Scottish politician to have made most of his career

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in Scottish politics who is well known in England.

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And, I dare say, internationally. I mean, I regard him as the outstanding Scottish politician,

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not to have come out of Scotland, but to have remained in Scotland.

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Since we sat together in the Westminster Parliament, he's quit

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as leader of his party, bounced back and led it to power in Scotland. Remarkable.

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As he set off on the election trail this year, I wanted to understand this comeback kid.

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There was one place I had to go.

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'It's eight o'clock. You're listening to Newsweek Scotland with Derek Bateman. Good morning.

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'Coming up in the next hour, we hear how the humble chocolate bar

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'plays a role in the civil unrest in Ivory Coast.

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'And we say hello to our Scottish election panel.'

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My Scottish family is from the east side, from Edinburgh.

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So I know Edinburgh much better than Glasgow.

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I have been to Glasgow quite a lot.

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Now we're in the Glasgow Southside constituency.

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I don't know my way around here at all.

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Not really the kind of place that looks like a safe Tory seat!

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But in this kind of constituency, I can see at first hand how

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Alex Salmond has reached out beyond his traditional party heartland.

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Hello, how are you?

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-Not bad, yourself?

-Very, very well.

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As ever, he greets me with a mix of charm and jibe.

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-Not bad, not bad.

-Very good.

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We'll need to get you incognito here.

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You were no pin-up here, were you?

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No, not exactly. It's not good Tory territory. So, you're going out campaigning?

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Yeah, yeah.

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-Lovely day for it.

-A month to go, but the campaign's hotting up quite nicely.

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-Good, good. So, what are you doing? Knocking on doors, or...

-Everything.

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-You know that well enough.

-And you feel confident?

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Yes, I am. I mean, there's...

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Yeah... Yes, I'm very confident, but nothing for granted.

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The usual things you say. Neck and neck and the rest of it.

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-Very good. We're going to...

-You know Nicola?

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I do, I know Nicola. And I'm very pleased to know Nicola indeed.

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-Good to see you. So, this is your patch?

-It is indeed, yes.

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So we're going to trail around with you, if that's all right?

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Watch your style.

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Converting a small faction of protest into a party of government has depended at critical moments on

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Alex Salmond's self-belief as a formidable campaigner.

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I'm here to see him in action.

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They'll probably be quite pleased to see us with our television camera and our boom microphone

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because I know from canvassing and campaigning, nothing attracts

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attention more than being followed around by a television camera.

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-You're familiar with Irn Bru?

-Of course.

-You cannae see, you know?

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Right, right.

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This is the new me. The healthy option.

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-Thank you so much.

-How you doing?

-I'm good, how are you?

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Seriously, you've got a chance of winning this time, have you?

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We will win. But, you know, we've still got four weeks of the campaign.

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It's going to be a close-run thing, but we'll win.

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The Alex Salmond I know from the Commons does not lack self-confidence.

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But there's more to shaking hands and posing with babies than meets the eye.

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People need to like you - maybe even think you genuine.

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Politicians who are no good at it make you cringe.

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But do it well and it's votes in the ballot box.

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Takes after her dad!

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Of course, in today's environment of political correctness, it simply isn't done to kiss a baby.

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But Alex Salmond's technique,

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everything short of kissing the baby, was absolutely superb.

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You know, the trouble I'm having is I want to join in.

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-You're having such fun.

-Well, that's right.

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I feel the hand going out to shake the voters.

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It must be so difficult for you. Old habits and all that.

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Absolutely. But, I mean, you're a natural at it, aren't you? You love campaigning, don't you?

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Ah, great, aye. I've always loved campaigning.

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You've always had a reputation for being quite a private man, but you're very outgoing with people.

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-Mm-hm.

-That's a slight dichotomy, there?

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It's just... I mean, I think in terms of the

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private stuff and family, that's really a Scottish tradition, Michael.

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We tend not to... That's been the Scottish habit

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and I think that's the right thing to do, incidentally, in terms of your family life. You keep that...

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But in terms of being out, you know, that's just the way I am.

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You can't actually put this on, incidentally.

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You either do it or you don't.

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A shiver of discomfort at any mention of Alex Salmond's private life.

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Even those who are very close to him know not to ask after his brothers,

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sisters, his parents and so on.

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Because it will simply be closed down as a topic of conversation.

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And the remarkable thing about Alex Salmond's sense of privacy

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is he operates in a political age in which entirely the opposite is expected of politicians.

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Where they're supposed to bare their souls and talk at length about their

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wives, children and their innermost thoughts and demons.

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Yet Alex Salmond has succeeded, despite not succumbing to that expectation.

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But does his private life offer any clues to the man who would become the politician?

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He grew up here, in Linlithgow.

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# The Lord is my shepherd I shall not want

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He maketh me to lie down in green pastures... #

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Alex Salmond's voice was first heard as a talented choirboy soprano.

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And he's said that growing up amongst medieval walls inspired a lifelong love of Scottish history.

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He said himself, and I think there's some truth in this, that his parents were

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typically Scottish, in that they were nationalists with a small n.

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And this is despite the fact his mother was, as he described,

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a Churchill Conservative, and his father was quite a hard-left Labour supporter.

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But they were both fiercely proud of being Scottish and, given

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the surrounding Scottish traditions of the Kirk

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and the distinct education system, Alex Salmond would inevitably have imbibed that feeling.

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I can't resist speculating on how the locality's

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forlorn and romantic history might have kindled Scottish patriotism

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in Alex Salmond's receptive heart.

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As a boy, Alex Salmond would have known the palace at Linlithgow where Mary, Queen of Scots was born,

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who many people thought had a better claim to the throne of England than her cousin, Elizabeth.

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Nonetheless, Mary was beheaded in an English castle at her cousin's orders.

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And that must have been enough to make the young boy seethe.

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And maybe this was what set Alex Salmond on his path to Nationalism.

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Why don't you say yes to the SNP next time?

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It's your future and it's your country, you know. Good night.

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Alex Salmond said yes to the SNP

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just weeks after arriving at St Andrews University in 1973.

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The history and economics undergraduate joined just as the party took off.

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In 1974, 11 Nationalist MPs were returned to Westminster.

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Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive, and to be young was very heaven.

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# It's plain to see you were meant for me

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# I'm your boy your 20th century toy... #

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And one future star of political journalism was watching throughout this period.

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I recall Alex Salmond as a thin, rake-like figure.

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Mind you, I was a thin, rake-like figure in those days as well!

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Going around in a long coat and what was later described as a Maoist cap.

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But it was a little cap, perched upon his hair.

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His abiding characteristic then, and now, was a combination of very serious politics and mischief-making.

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He cannot resist the temptation to make mischief with a political rival.

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While having that sense of mischief about politics and about

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life, he also took himself exceptionally seriously.

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Everything was planned and calculated.

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In those days to do with student politics, now of course to do with the governance of Scotland.

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We don't stand out at all, do we?!

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I think student politicians are pretty weird.

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I mean, seriously, get a life.

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But I hoped they could give me some insight into what the young Alex Salmond was like.

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Nah, not at all.

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I'm a Labour man. Been that all my days.

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Oh, that one wasn't so good.

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-No.

-How's it been today, generally?

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It's been quite a good day.

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-Just the occasional one you get that's not...

-This is such a traditional Labour...

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He was just saying, his father voted Labour, his father's father voted Labour.

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It's going to be very hard to change your opinion.

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Four this way, four down here.

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-Four this way, guys.

-How strong does Nationalism run amongst students?

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50-50, I'd say. You're either a very strong Unionist or a very strong Nationalist at the moment, I'd say.

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You actually want Scotland to become independent?

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Yes, definitely. Fully independent.

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I believe by the time I'm 30 years old, I want full Scottish independence.

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-We can leave you a leaflet. You can consider it.

-OK.

-Take it easy.

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How does the name of Alex Salmond go down on the doorstep?

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Some people really like him, some people don't like him.

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The old Marmite thing.

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Yeah. Yeah. Whenever people like him, I go, "Well, yeah, he's fantastic, he's a good leader."

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When people don't like him, I always try to say, "Well, it's not just about the individual character."

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So it doesn't have to be about him.

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If you don't like him, fair enough, you can still like the SNP.

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The ability to ride two horses at once is a useful talent for a politician.

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Does Alex Salmond have it?

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His past suggests that he does.

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Alex Salmond had a reputation as a young radical, yet his employment was anything but.

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The young firebrand Nationalist moonlighted at the heart of the Edinburgh establishment.

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For seven years, he worked for the bank as an economist and oil expert.

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He must have inhaled the fumes of free-market capitalism.

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Yet when the Government saved the bank from two takeover bids, he applauded state intervention.

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Such paradoxes

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have haunted Salmond's career.

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Can a tormented left-wing activist and a sated capitalist apparatchik

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simultaneously inhabit one mind and body?

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There has been that curious paradox, I think, since Salmond's period at the Royal Bank of Scotland between

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a socially democratic Salmond, a centre-left instinct and the neo-liberal side.

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It's fair to say that throughout his career Alex Salmond has been

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consistently oleaginous, that is, convinced that oil is the key to Scotland's economy and politics.

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The riches of the North Sea, lying in abundance off the Scottish

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coast, have kept a flare burning for four decades in Alex Salmond's mind.

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To an English politician such as I used to be,

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few phrases are as wearisome as "the claim to Scotland's oil".

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The Scottish National Party won its seat at Westminster in 1967,

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about the time that North Sea oil was first discovered.

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And maybe that's not a coincidence, because the existence of those vast natural resources off-shore Scotland

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helped many Scots to believe that Scotland could go it alone.

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And perhaps it also led to an increase in Scottish resentment,

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a feeling that the country would be able to live a life of luxury if it weren't for the beastly English.

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The question of whether it's Scotland's oil has long fuelled the SNP's support.

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Even now, in 2011, it's a key part of their argument

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that Scotland has the ability to stand on its own two feet.

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Looking out at the scale of the industry and the wealth that it has

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brought, I can see that it's had a huge effect on Alex Salmond's vision for Scotland.

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I wanted to know more about the SNP leader's early years in the party,

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so I went to meet one of the independence movement's best-known figures.

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Margo MacDonald was a member of the 1979 Group.

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That was a left-wing faction within the SNP.

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Membership of it got Alex Salmond suspended from the party for a period during the 1980s.

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Margo and her husband, Jim Sillars, were close to the SNP leader once upon a time.

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The pair of you will have known Alex Salmond since the early 1970s.

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From what you knew then, have you been surprised what a dominant figure he became in the party?

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Oh, well, I thought he would be a future leader,

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because it's not so well known now,

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but Alex was one of the ones who were expelled in the early '80s.

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And one of the reasons I fought like mad - I didn't get expelled, for some reason - one of the reasons I

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fought like mad to get him and Kenny MacAskill back in

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was that I saw Alex as a potential leader, even then.

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Why did you see him as a potential leader?

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He was very bright...

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He had a toughness about him.

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Well, it wasn't so much that, but he was different

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from the people who had led the Scottish National Party before.

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He was modern, and I thought that he could relate to modern Scotland far

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better than the others did, without being injurious to their reputations.

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There had been a group of people

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in the SNP who had been working to establish that

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the natural position for the SNP in Scotland was left of centre.

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Jim's absolutely right, he was left of centre, and he was more clearly

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willing to identify himself, as previous leaders of the SNP had been,

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who probably were left of centre themselves but not as willing to announce it.

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Alex Salmond's suspension would not be a life sentence.

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James Mitchell knew him throughout that period.

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In truth, the leadership were very worried about this.

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They didn't want to cause the trouble that was bound to arise

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from the suspension, and they

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certainly didn't want to lose people like Alex Salmond, with his talent.

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And so an agreement was reached, an accommodation, and so he was able to come back into the party.

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And so the prodigal son was transformed into a favoured son.

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Well, we're joined now by Alex Salmond in Aberdeen, the new SNP MP for Banff and Buchan.

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-Congratulations.

-Thank you.

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Now, there's Alex Salmond, Margaret Ewing, Andrew Welsh.

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Would you like to be leader of the SNP?

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Oh, I think that's a question for the future.

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Once in Westminster, the new MP wasn't going to slouch complacently on the green leather benches.

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He was keen to make his mark in Westminster and with the voters back home.

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Perhaps he was looking to join the ranks of Scotland's great heroes.

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I'm rather fond of some of them myself.

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And as for Alex Salmond, a graduate in medieval history,

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what better inspiration could there be than Scotland's bravest heart?

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At the end of the 13th century, William Wallace fought for Scottish freedom,

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won a famous victory here at Stirling and marched into England.

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During his time as an MP at Westminster, Alex Salmond took the fight to London, where Wallace

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had been hung, drawn and quartered, and again fought for independence.

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I saw for myself a key Alex Salmond moment on Budget Day, 1988.

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It was the period of high Thatcherism, and her chancellor, Nigel Lawson,

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announced a breathtaking cut in income tax, eliminating the rates for the highest earners.

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Alex Salmond seized the moment, moved for the moral high ground

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and launched his attack while the Chancellor spoke.

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I propose to abolish all the higher rates of income tax above 40 per cent.

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SHOUTING

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This...

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Alex Salmond stood up,

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heckled Nigel Lawson

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and brought the Budget to a halt.

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Order!

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Order!

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Deputy Speaker Harold Walker, Chairman of Ways and Means, has had to call for a vote

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on whether Mr Alex Salmond should be expelled from the House of Commons.

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This is a big moment in the Alex Salmond story.

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I was there, and it was a masterly piece of political theatre.

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Alex Salmond got named, that is to say he got suspended. It's like a

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red card in soccer.

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He had to leave the field.

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But more than that, we, all of us, had to vote to suspend Alex Salmond.

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So the Budget is disrupted for the 15 minutes that it takes to hold a vote, and, I suppose,

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by the end of the afternoon, from no-one knowing who Alex Salmond was, everybody knew who he was.

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I beg to move that Mr Salmond...

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I beg to move that Mr Salmond be suspended from proceedings...

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Does this episode explain the knack he has for achieving useful notoriety?

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Around that time, Alex Salmond and Michael Russell were becoming close allies.

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You go back with Alex Salmond to the mid-1980s.

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Did you approve of those sorts of tactics?

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I approved enormously of that tactic. I knew he was thinking about it,

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and I remember I sent him a message immediately afterwards,

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expressing my excitement that he'd done it.

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We needed to express the anger that was felt in Scotland, particularly about the poll tax.

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We needed to protest, we needed to be heard.

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One of the great issues, at that time, was there were a large number of Labour MPs from Scotland -

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we used to call them the Feeble 50 at that stage -

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who never said or did anything, were never heard protesting about anything.

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It was important that the Scottish voice was heard, and Alex was the person to articulate it.

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And Alex Salmond's ability to grab the limelight would pay off in 1990.

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Margaret Ewing MP, 186.

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Alex Salmond MP, 486.

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CHEERING

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# I'm on my way, I'm making it... #

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In the 1990s, Alex Salmond dominated his party.

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From the start, he set the SNP in opposition to both the Conservatives and the burgeoning New Labour party.

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# So much larger than life... #

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The Labour leadership may win the battle for the yuppie votes

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in the south, we're going to win the battle for the hearts and minds of the Scottish people.

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With so many early years spent in opposition,

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perhaps he's been allowed to enjoy his fame more than most.

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And with Paul Merton tonight is a media pundit, TV celebrity and quiz

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panellist, except for viewers in Scotland, where apparently he's some sort of politician - Alex Salmond!

0:22:540:23:01

But on the whole, his political opponents have learnt to take

0:23:010:23:04

Alex Salmond seriously as a television performer.

0:23:040:23:07

Alex Salmond.

0:23:070:23:09

Donald, Labour have won elections in Scotland over the last 13 years.

0:23:090:23:13

At the last election, you had an unprecedented victory, winning 50 seats.

0:23:130:23:18

With all that voting power over that period of time, can you

0:23:180:23:23

name tonight one single industry that you have saved from closure?

0:23:230:23:27

CHEERING AND APPLAUSE

0:23:270:23:29

-Pass!

-No, not pass at all.

0:23:320:23:35

-Donald, you answer the question...

-There was a debate at the Usher Hall in Edinburgh in 1992,

0:23:380:23:42

at which he did very well, then a head-to-head with George Robertson,

0:23:420:23:45

who was then Shadow Scottish Secretary, a few years later, at which he did very well again.

0:23:450:23:50

Otherwise, Alex Salmond is not a good debater.

0:23:500:23:52

He's a good shouter, and he's very sharp.

0:23:520:23:55

That doesn't make him a talented debater.

0:23:550:23:58

During this year's campaign, I snuck behind the scenes into

0:23:580:24:03

the back of the television studio to watch his style.

0:24:030:24:06

So, here we are early in the election campaign, and the four leaders are gathering

0:24:150:24:22

in a studio in Glasgow.

0:24:220:24:24

..talking about the issues that matter to you.

0:24:240:24:26

We're going to see Alex Salmond..

0:24:260:24:28

..Annabel Goldie of the Scottish Conservatives, the SNP's Alex Salmond, Iain Gray from

0:24:280:24:33

Scottish Labour and the Scottish Liberal Democrats' Tavish Scott.

0:24:330:24:37

Thank you all very much indeed for coming in for this special programme.

0:24:370:24:41

Let's start with what we all know and we can all presumably agree on, which is that the public are

0:24:410:24:46

extremely wary of cuts and what the cuts are going to mean for them. So this is a chance...

0:24:460:24:53

And that's...

0:24:530:24:55

We're making progress. This is progress.

0:24:550:24:59

ALL TALK OVER EACH OTHER

0:24:590:25:02

If you undertake to talk to the Government, which

0:25:020:25:05

we will bring forward, and I'm glad we're operating on the assumption...

0:25:050:25:10

..then we'll talk to you, as we talk to the other parties...

0:25:100:25:13

On that positive note...

0:25:130:25:16

We can surely come to an agreement on this.

0:25:160:25:18

Alex Salmond has a reputation for being very quick.

0:25:180:25:23

A moment there where Iain Gray, the Labour leader in Scotland,

0:25:230:25:26

appeared to imply that after the election, there's going to

0:25:260:25:29

be an SNP government talking about whether they could do a deal on a particular piece of legislation.

0:25:290:25:34

Alex Salmond says straightaway,

0:25:340:25:36

"You're working on the assumption that I'm going to get back into power."

0:25:360:25:40

You all talk to different voters, don't you?

0:25:400:25:43

ALL TALK OVER EACH OTHER

0:25:430:25:45

The voters I'm speaking to, Iain, are desperately disappointed with Labour.

0:25:450:25:49

Quite clearly, for neither Tavish nor Annabel, what the coalition is doing...

0:25:490:25:53

As we come to the end of this debate, Alex Salmond has only really been gored once.

0:25:530:26:00

A little blood was drawn on the issue of his promise to

0:26:000:26:03

replace the council tax with local income tax and then the accusation

0:26:030:26:08

that he went to court in order to stop the true cost of his proposals being revealed to the public.

0:26:080:26:13

He looked a bit uncomfortable at that point.

0:26:130:26:16

Otherwise, he's been landing blows with his usual gay abandon.

0:26:160:26:20

Before she left the building, I sought my former party colleague's view of her opponent.

0:26:240:26:30

I think he's been a big beast in Scottish politics,

0:26:310:26:34

and it would be, I think, churlish to deny that.

0:26:340:26:37

He has a political competence, he has a charisma,

0:26:370:26:40

and he certainly has established himself over the years as

0:26:400:26:44

a significant figure in the political environment.

0:26:440:26:47

I think one of his personal traits can be

0:26:470:26:51

a rather,

0:26:510:26:52

at times, overbearing personal demeanour.

0:26:520:26:56

He likes to get things his own way, he likes to

0:26:560:27:00

be the big beast in the jungle, he likes to try and dominate debate and discussion.

0:27:000:27:05

And, I mean, I certainly think it's my duty to stand up to that and to challenge that.

0:27:050:27:11

The ability to craft a soundbite

0:27:160:27:19

or to beat an opponent at a hustings are important.

0:27:190:27:24

But there's more than that to political effectiveness.

0:27:240:27:29

The qualities of great leaders like Churchill and Margaret Thatcher, for whom I worked, are of course

0:27:320:27:38

that they lead from the front, they have an extraordinary sense of purpose and great courage.

0:27:380:27:44

And I wouldn't exactly compare Alex Salmond to Churchill or Thatcher,

0:27:440:27:48

but he does have some characteristics which are important in a leader.

0:27:480:27:52

He has a sense of destiny and he has flexibility, he changes his mind, because very often a great leader

0:27:520:27:58

knows the destination but doesn't go straight to it, but rather tacks along the way.

0:27:580:28:04

And that quality of political rubberiness would be needed by Alex Salmond throughout the 1990s.

0:28:090:28:16

In 1992, the SNP hoped to gain from the unpopularity in Scotland of the Conservatives.

0:28:160:28:23

But Scotland voted Labour,

0:28:230:28:27

even as the rest of the UK rejected Neil Kinnock.

0:28:270:28:31

Very difficult to cope with the Labour Party argument that

0:28:350:28:38

Neil Kinnock had the keys of Number 10 Downing Street in his hands.

0:28:380:28:42

If that turns out to be a false prospectus and if Labour lose this election, then I think the Labour

0:28:420:28:46

leadership in Scotland are going to have some immediate explaining to do

0:28:460:28:50

to the Scottish people, and I think the Scottish people will take their

0:28:500:28:53

revenge on the Labour party in the May local election, on 7th May, when Scotland goes to the polls again.

0:28:530:28:59

There would be no great breakthrough for the SNP at Westminster elections.

0:28:590:29:04

But Salmond's flexibility and leadership skills would come to the fore in 1997.

0:29:040:29:11

He was about to help make history.

0:29:110:29:14

Scotland's history matters to Alex Salmond and features in his argument for independence.

0:29:190:29:25

Here in Edinburgh in the late 1990s, a creaking sound

0:29:250:29:30

echoed through the streets - heralding that Scotland's Parliament was rising from its grave.

0:29:300:29:37

-Good evening!

-Good evening.

0:29:370:29:39

Welcome to the Witchery Murder and Mystery Tour.

0:29:390:29:42

My name is Adam Lyle, deceased.

0:29:420:29:44

'Walking these streets, you get a feel for the Scottish capital's long and colourful past.

0:29:440:29:50

'Was it a sense of history which prompted Alex Salmond

0:29:500:29:53

'to join Labour and the Liberal Democrats to campaign for a Yes vote in the devolution referendum?

0:29:530:30:00

'They walked together towards the historic election of 1999,

0:30:000:30:04

'which would bring the parliament back to life.

0:30:040:30:06

'But the goodwill forged during the long referendum campaign would not last.'

0:30:060:30:11

Thank you all very much and good night. Thank you.

0:30:110:30:14

APPLAUSE

0:30:140:30:16

'In an often bad-tempered campaign,

0:30:210:30:23

'Alex Salmond, as a potential First Minister,

0:30:230:30:25

'was put under more intense scrutiny than ever before.

0:30:250:30:28

'His poll ratings slid, and his Penny for Scotland policy,

0:30:280:30:33

'a promise to use the income tax raising power of the new parliament,

0:30:330:30:37

'didn't go down well with voters or some in his own party.'

0:30:370:30:41

What went wrong?

0:30:410:30:43

I don't know that anything went wrong. I think they got what they deserved.

0:30:430:30:49

Well, you were pretty critical at the time.

0:30:490:30:52

No, no. I offered helpful comments,

0:30:520:30:57

which were always interpreted as just being straight criticism.

0:30:570:31:02

Can you remind us of the helpful comments?

0:31:020:31:05

Och, I can't remember what I said now.

0:31:050:31:06

-But it would all be true, I'm sure.

-What about A Penny for Scotland?

0:31:060:31:10

Och, that was nonsense. That was absolute...

0:31:100:31:13

-That was absolute nonsense, and I said so.

-That's a helpful comment?

0:31:130:31:17

Ah, well, they dropped it.

0:31:170:31:19

They dropped the Penny for Scotland thing, because I was right.

0:31:190:31:23

I don't want to dwell on anything like that.

0:31:230:31:26

Some of the SNP may want to, but I think most of them don't.

0:31:260:31:30

I think most of them want to forget that embarrassment.

0:31:300:31:33

It would be a hard lesson.

0:31:340:31:36

You don't see today's Alex Salmond giving such hostages to fortune.

0:31:360:31:42

I think the problem with Penny for Scotland

0:31:420:31:44

was the party talked a great deal about how it raised the money, not how it spent it.

0:31:440:31:48

I think that's something that sometimes happens when you talk about taxation.

0:31:480:31:51

I think we needed a much greater focus in 1999 about what that money would buy.

0:31:510:31:55

So I think that's a collective issue.

0:31:550:31:57

And indeed I was deeply involved in the Penny for Scotland issue.

0:31:570:32:00

I think, recognising now what happened, I think that's probably a critique I would make.

0:32:000:32:05

And then there were Alex Salmond's comments on the NATO bombing of Serbia.

0:32:050:32:10

It is an action of dubious legality, but above all one of unpardonable folly.

0:32:110:32:16

'One of the SNP candidates for that parliament was Duncan Hamilton,

0:32:160:32:21

'a rising star who was close to the leader.'

0:32:210:32:24

I suspect for Alex the criticism that he got over Kosovo

0:32:240:32:28

might be a low point.

0:32:280:32:30

And I say that not because he thinks for a minute

0:32:300:32:33

that he was wrong about that, but because it unleashed,

0:32:330:32:37

in the middle of an election campaign,

0:32:370:32:39

something that was able to be twisted and turned against the SNP.

0:32:390:32:43

And turned it, in the middle of the campaign, into a real problem.

0:32:430:32:48

And I think it may be well be that he looks back on that and thinks

0:32:480:32:52

that whilst he may have been right in saying it at that time,

0:32:520:32:55

it may or may not have been the wisest move. But that's my guess.

0:32:550:33:00

'Alex Salmond's outburst may have been politically costly.

0:33:000:33:04

'Had this man, often criticised for over-calculating his positions,

0:33:040:33:08

'simply exposed a powerful inner conviction whose authenticity has since proved attractive?'

0:33:080:33:16

Kosovo, you've got to remember Alex believes and feels things very passionately.

0:33:160:33:20

He believed utterly that this was wrong, it was adventurism.

0:33:200:33:24

He spoke, I would think, for the whole SNP in that.

0:33:240:33:27

And I would much, much, much rather be in a party

0:33:270:33:31

with a leader that does that than a leader who is mealy-mouthed when it comes to issues of real principle.

0:33:310:33:36

'But in that first election to the Scottish Parliament

0:33:380:33:41

'the SNP came a poor second with 35 MSPs, 21 fewer than Labour.

0:33:410:33:47

'Alex Salmond, as leader, carried the responsibility.'

0:33:470:33:51

The election of 1999 was a disappointing result.

0:33:510:33:56

-Would you accept that?

-I think it was less than we had hoped for,

0:33:560:33:59

but more than we might have anticipated even two or three years earlier.

0:33:590:34:03

I think expectations were perhaps very unrealistic.

0:34:030:34:06

We had a lot still to do in 1999, although we had done a lot.

0:34:060:34:10

After nearly 300 years, Scotland once more had a parliament.

0:34:120:34:17

Yet, even as one of its champions, Alex Salmond was evidently burdened with disappointment.

0:34:170:34:24

Even self-doubt.

0:34:240:34:26

Having played a key role in the successful campaign for a Yes vote on devolution,

0:34:320:34:37

Alex Salmond was elected to the first Scottish Parliament of modern times

0:34:370:34:41

that sat here in the Assembly Hall of the Church of Scotland.

0:34:410:34:45

But, surprisingly, he didn't shine in the new role.

0:34:450:34:49

And within a year he was under fierce attack from hostile media.

0:34:490:34:54

He probably struggled to adapt from Westminster to the Scottish Parliament, initially.

0:34:540:35:00

Much was written at the time about him failing to score points at First Minister's Questions in opposition.

0:35:000:35:06

I don't think that's particularly fair

0:35:060:35:08

because I think the Scottish Parliament is not really set up for opposition parties.

0:35:080:35:12

But Alex is a Westminster politician.

0:35:120:35:15

He loves the clash and clamour, he loves the cut and thrust across the debating chamber.

0:35:150:35:22

And to be brought into an environment which is all about consensus, cuddly politics,

0:35:220:35:27

I think, for him, was not necessarily a natural transition.

0:35:270:35:31

Just one year into the new parliament,

0:35:320:35:35

Alex Salmond brought his decade-long leadership of the party to an abrupt end.

0:35:350:35:41

I have invested a great deal of time, particularly over the last year, in developing the position the SNP

0:35:410:35:48

as a strong team of people who are capable of taking Scotland forward.

0:35:480:35:52

And I think, after ten years, it's time to allow someone in that team of people,

0:35:520:35:56

that strong team that we've seen developing in the Scots Parliament, the chance to show what they can do.

0:35:560:36:02

11 years later, and here's the same man

0:36:040:36:08

attempting to win an unprecedented second term as First Minister.

0:36:080:36:13

How can such success and self-confidence

0:36:130:36:15

have returned to a man who a decade ago was dubbed by some a quitter?

0:36:150:36:20

While he was on the campaign trail I asked him why he threw in the towel back in 2000.

0:36:200:36:27

I'd done ten years.

0:36:290:36:31

It's quite interesting.

0:36:310:36:33

I came to believe that...

0:36:330:36:36

Because I couldn't understand why we were getting such bad press.

0:36:360:36:39

We were ahead in the polls, we were doing all right,

0:36:390:36:42

and yet were getting absolute lumps knocked out of us.

0:36:420:36:45

And I couldn't recognise what was actually happening in the parliament with the description of it.

0:36:450:36:50

I got it into my head that the problem had become me.

0:36:500:36:53

The press, because I'd had ten years, basically a charmed existence, nobody had laid a finger on me.

0:36:530:36:58

And I began to believe that basically they'd got fed up of having me there.

0:36:580:37:03

Probably the press, as opposed to the people.

0:37:030:37:05

And basically, the party would do better if someone had a fresh start and a decent run at it.

0:37:050:37:10

Over the next few years, he steered his career in a different direction and regained his fighting spirit.

0:37:120:37:18

He left the Scottish Parliament and led his party at Westminster.

0:37:180:37:22

The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq aroused his passionate opposition.

0:37:220:37:27

He was prominent on the UK national stage, making an increasingly popular case.

0:37:270:37:34

A month ago he said the only circumstances he would go to war without a second resolution

0:37:340:37:40

were if the inspectors concluded there was no more progress, which they haven't.

0:37:400:37:44

If there was a majority in the Security Council, which there's not.

0:37:440:37:47

And there was an unreasonable veto from one country.

0:37:470:37:50

There are three countries, permanent members, opposed to the Prime Minister's policy.

0:37:500:37:55

When did he change his position and why?

0:37:550:37:59

'Apparently, the aggression of Westminster suited Alex Salmond

0:38:010:38:04

'better than the rainbow politics of Edinburgh.

0:38:040:38:08

'Or perhaps it had simply revived him.

0:38:080:38:11

'When John Swinney stepped down as leader, the heavens seemed to send Alex Salmond a sign.

0:38:110:38:17

'The SNP leader likes Indian food - a lot.

0:38:220:38:27

'This restaurant is said to be his favourite haunt.

0:38:270:38:30

'And one of those who whetted his appetite for a return to Edinburgh

0:38:300:38:34

'says that curry was part of the mix.'

0:38:340:38:38

In 2004, when Alex Salmond has been out of the leadership for four years,

0:38:380:38:43

you, amongst others, encourage him to come back, I think with a series of curry dinners.

0:38:430:38:47

Why did you think he should return?

0:38:470:38:48

The choice of what was next was quite a difficult one.

0:38:480:38:51

They had three very, very strong candidates.

0:38:510:38:53

But there was no really emerging new leadership figure

0:38:530:38:57

or agenda at the time.

0:38:570:38:59

And so it just struck a few of us

0:38:590:39:02

that there was an opportunity here not to be missed.

0:39:020:39:05

That, you know, Alex would be able to galvanise

0:39:050:39:08

what was clearly emerging as a big opportunity to replace Labour in government.

0:39:080:39:13

I was spending a lot of time in London myself.

0:39:130:39:16

Angus Robertson, who's now the SNP's Westminster leader,

0:39:160:39:19

spent a lot of time in one of Alex's favourite Pimlico curry houses,

0:39:190:39:25

basically ruminating on the problem and what could be done about it.

0:39:250:39:29

And I can't quite remember the full detail,

0:39:290:39:32

but I do recall that by the end of it he had determined

0:39:320:39:34

this could be put together and a case for returning could be made. So he was up for it.

0:39:340:39:39

'Was it vanity that prompted his comeback, a belief that he was indispensable?

0:39:390:39:46

'Or did he feel the call of duty, believing that if he did not step up,

0:39:460:39:49

'the party would take a wrong turn?'

0:39:490:39:52

In a sense, he had to be persuaded to come back, but it was more a sense

0:39:520:39:56

of obligation and duty, if truth be told, than it was anything to do with ego.

0:39:560:40:01

I often laugh when people say

0:40:010:40:02

he couldn't bear to be out the limelight and desperately pushed people aside to come back.

0:40:020:40:07

It's not how it was. It simply wasn't how it was.

0:40:070:40:09

And that's to misunderstand both the moment and the man.

0:40:090:40:12

So your voice was one of those that was whispering, "Return!"

0:40:120:40:16

Well, I mean, I'm a fan of his in the sense of I think he adds something to the party

0:40:160:40:23

that the party doesn't otherwise have, and I think at that time,

0:40:230:40:27

given where the party could have gone,

0:40:270:40:29

it was important that he did come back. So I think there was a danger.

0:40:290:40:33

I mean, I don't remember being somebody who was so utterly convinced that he must come back at all costs.

0:40:330:40:39

'In order to come back, Alex Salmond had to muster all the flexibility -

0:40:390:40:44

'or perhaps rubberiness - that good political leaders possess.'

0:40:440:40:49

If nominated. I'll decline. If drafted, I'll defer.

0:40:490:40:52

And if elected, I'll resign.

0:40:520:40:54

So it is then with a degree of surprise and humility but with a renewed determination

0:40:550:41:01

that I must tell you that I am a candidate for the leadership of the Scottish National Party.

0:41:010:41:07

APPLAUSE

0:41:070:41:10

And the man who had once ascended from party exile to party leader

0:41:110:41:16

pulled off another remarkable resurrection.

0:41:160:41:18

'Alex Salmond MP,'

0:41:200:41:23

4,952 votes,

0:41:230:41:27

or 75.76% of the vote.

0:41:270:41:32

CHEERING AND APPLAUSE

0:41:320:41:34

Nicola and I intend to win the 2007 elections in Scotland,

0:41:400:41:45

and we'll do that by offering a vision to the people where currently there's just a vacuum,

0:41:450:41:51

and we intend to lead a government of purpose and direction, so that we can offer the people of this nation

0:41:510:41:57

the opportunity to move forward to independence, democracy and equality.

0:41:570:42:03

APPLAUSE

0:42:030:42:05

Whether Salmond possesses courage or merely chutzpah,

0:42:090:42:12

I believe the key is the thrill that he derives from risk.

0:42:120:42:15

-How are you?

-How are you doing, Michael? Good to see you.

0:42:150:42:18

-Nice to see you.

-Good to see a proper Tory.

0:42:180:42:20

There's a horse running on Thursday I'm quite interested in.

0:42:200:42:23

-What's that?

-Alex Salmond. What odds?

0:42:230:42:26

He's a certainty. He's 4/6.

0:42:260:42:28

He'll win the election. I'll be voting for him.

0:42:280:42:32

Alex Salmond is famously something of a betting man,

0:42:320:42:35

a punter who knows the form and generally keeps his nose ahead.

0:42:350:42:40

So, the horse that attracts me in the 3:15, for obvious reasons, is Blue Bunting.

0:42:420:42:48

However, it says here, "Bare form, nothing to write home about, and she looks vulnerable to speedier sorts."

0:42:480:42:54

Sounds like she's got about the same chance as the blues in this election.

0:42:540:43:00

Have a Mario Lanza on it.

0:43:000:43:02

Go on, two quid at 150/1, Wing And A Prayer.

0:43:020:43:06

Wing And A Prayer for the Tories! Cos that's what they're on.

0:43:060:43:09

-Right, Michael.

-Great. I'll be back to collect later.

0:43:090:43:13

Right. See, if that wins, I'll polish your shoes.

0:43:130:43:17

Come on, Wing And A Prayer.

0:43:210:43:23

Ohhh...

0:43:230:43:24

Come on, Wing And A Prayer!

0:43:240:43:27

Come on, Wing And A Prayer!

0:43:270:43:30

It came last.

0:43:410:43:42

Alex Salmond promised his party that he would win

0:43:480:43:52

20 first-past-the-post seats, way more than they'd ever managed before.

0:43:520:43:56

He said he would defeat Labour and become First Minister.

0:43:560:44:00

And to make things a little more interesting, he upped the stakes.

0:44:000:44:05

For the 2007 Scottish Parliamentary elections, that seasoned tipster Alex Salmond decided to have a punt.

0:44:050:44:13

He put his name forward for the constituency of Gordon.

0:44:130:44:16

It was long odds, because the Liberal Democrats had a majority there of more than 4,000 votes.

0:44:160:44:22

But Salmond decided that that was where he would place his bet.

0:44:220:44:26

Well, he's a natural gambler, he assesses these things well.

0:44:280:44:32

But yes, of course it was a gamble. But given his ability, given his ability to campaign,

0:44:320:44:37

given his reputation, I think it was one that was going to pay off.

0:44:370:44:40

I thought that from the very beginning. And it did pay off.

0:44:400:44:43

He's got a favourite saying, which is from the Marquis of Montrose.

0:44:430:44:47

"He either fears his fate too much

0:44:470:44:49

"or his desserts are small,

0:44:490:44:51

"who will not put it to the touch to win or lose it all."

0:44:510:44:53

He quotes that from time to time.

0:44:530:44:55

He also lives his political life like that, and it tends to work out well for him.

0:44:550:45:00

Is this love of the high-wire act critical to his enjoyment of politics?

0:45:000:45:06

So he's a bit like, Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair.

0:45:080:45:12

I recognise this in myself to some extent, one of these people

0:45:120:45:15

who is exhilarated by the thought that they'd go to the chamber

0:45:150:45:18

and they don't know that day whether they're going to survive or perish.

0:45:180:45:22

The difference between triumph and disaster thrills them.

0:45:220:45:25

Absolutely, but you know, if you show me any serious politician who is not fuelled by adrenaline,

0:45:250:45:32

and that means thirsting after success, desperately wanting it

0:45:320:45:36

and desperately trying to avoid disaster but really enjoying walking along the precipice,

0:45:360:45:42

and it makes victory all the sweeter.

0:45:420:45:44

'Securing the winning ticket is a very sweet moment,

0:45:450:45:50

'as Alex Salmond found in 2007.

0:45:500:45:54

'As the final results trickled in, the First Minister in waiting seized the moment.'

0:45:540:46:00

In the day, the hours following the Scottish Parliament election,

0:46:020:46:07

it's not yet clear who's come first, but it is appearing to be going in the SNP's direction.

0:46:070:46:13

Now, the SNP had pre-booked Prestonfield House Hotel in Edinburgh.

0:46:130:46:17

It's set amidst beautiful, beautiful grounds, it was a very sunny day in May 2007,

0:46:170:46:22

and they've hired a helicopter

0:46:220:46:24

to get Alex Salmond from his constituency down to Edinburgh on the Friday afternoon.

0:46:240:46:30

So that touches down, you know, with the press gathered.

0:46:300:46:33

It all looks extremely presidential.

0:46:330:46:35

He loves the big event and he loves being the centre of attention, as most politicians do.

0:46:400:46:47

It was very, very touch and go as to which party would actually be the largest party.

0:46:470:46:52

The speech that I drafted as he was coming down

0:46:520:46:55

specifically left an area to say that we don't quite know how this is going to pan out, but by the time you land,

0:46:550:47:01

hopefully we'll be in a position to say that we are the largest party.

0:47:010:47:05

Salmond then emerges, and after a break he walks up to this podium

0:47:050:47:10

emblazoned with the SNP logo,

0:47:100:47:12

with, again, journalists and cameramen gathered round

0:47:120:47:15

and delivers a very nice, very moving speech.

0:47:150:47:18

Alasdair Gray once wrote,

0:47:180:47:20

"Work as though you lived in the early days of a better nation".

0:47:200:47:25

Our commitment to Scotland is this - we will work,

0:47:250:47:29

and these ARE the days of a better nation.

0:47:290:47:34

Thank you very much.

0:47:340:47:35

And he gives the appearance of a winner.

0:47:380:47:41

In terms of establishing that momentum, it was very effective.

0:47:410:47:45

Jack McConnell, the leader of the Labour party, meanwhile,

0:47:470:47:50

is on a back street in Glasgow looking very much like a loser.

0:47:500:47:53

He is an adrenaline junkie in that way,

0:47:530:47:56

and that's why he loves campaigns - he loves the attention.

0:47:560:48:01

You know, not in a particularly egotistical way,

0:48:010:48:04

just because if you're someone who thinks you've got a message,

0:48:040:48:08

the idea of having the eyes of the world upon you to deliver that message

0:48:080:48:11

is as good as it gets in politics.

0:48:110:48:13

So of course he's a showman, but rather that than dreary, dull and utterly uninspiring.

0:48:130:48:20

Now, if the SNP had emerged as not winning the election and Labour had,

0:48:200:48:24

it all of course would have looked tremendously silly and presumptuous,

0:48:240:48:28

but it didn't. That was the crucial thing.

0:48:280:48:30

It looked presidential, it looked as if Salmond was going to win the election, and he did.

0:48:300:48:34

The gamble had paid off.

0:48:360:48:38

Alex Salmond was elected for the first time to the parliament sitting at Holyrood as the MSP for Gordon.

0:48:380:48:45

Within a few days he was elected First Minister of Scotland,

0:48:450:48:49

the one and only position in government that he's ever held.

0:48:490:48:54

'Having made the long journey to First Minister,

0:48:550:48:58

'what style and qualities did he bring to government?'

0:48:580:49:02

I think he's restored people's faith in the Scottish Parliament.

0:49:020:49:05

Things were getting to a bit of a low ebb after two coalition administrations.

0:49:050:49:09

I think that what we've done is shown that competent government in Scotland

0:49:090:49:13

can take place and can be good for Scotland, and I think Alex has been very much a figurehead of that.

0:49:130:49:18

I think he's also made Scottish politics more interesting.

0:49:180:49:21

'A view not shared by his political rivals.'

0:49:210:49:24

If you look at the catastrophe of the Scottish banks,

0:49:240:49:27

that wasn't made in London, that was made in Edinburgh.

0:49:270:49:30

And, you know, this is the man who actually said

0:49:300:49:32

that he personally approved the RBS takeover of the Dutch bank ABN.

0:49:320:49:36

Well, if he did, then that says something about his judgment.

0:49:360:49:39

His energy policy, you know, it is just pie in the sky.

0:49:390:49:43

And, you know, he is very rarely questioned about these things,

0:49:430:49:48

and the result is that he's got away with bringing about a situation

0:49:480:49:53

where even to question him is to be accused of negativity.

0:49:530:49:57

I would classify the SNP government and the members of the leadership

0:49:570:50:03

after the 2007 election as falling into the trap of managerialism.

0:50:030:50:07

Now, I understood that they had to prove themselves credible, and they certainly did.

0:50:070:50:12

They were far better than the previous Labour people.

0:50:120:50:14

But then the managerialism became all.

0:50:140:50:17

-They never campaigned outside that chamber at all.

-For independence?

0:50:170:50:22

For anything, as a matter of fact.

0:50:220:50:24

'There's an interesting question there.'

0:50:240:50:27

'Have the ease and status of high office subdued Alex Salmond's passion to set Scotland free?'

0:50:270:50:34

You look very comfortable as First Minister.

0:50:340:50:38

Well, I should hope so. Do you want me to be uncomfortable?

0:50:380:50:40

-No, but I think you just look a bit too comfortable.

-Oh, I see, I see.

0:50:400:50:43

The last thing they like in London is a Scot who looks comfortable.

0:50:430:50:49

You should look at... Actually, it's not Scots who look comfortable you want to watch out for.

0:50:490:50:54

What is it PG Wodehouse said?

0:50:540:50:56

"It's not difficult to tell the difference between a ray of sunshine and a Scot with a grievance."

0:50:560:51:01

I've talked to you while campaigning. Have you been campaigning for independence?

0:51:010:51:05

All my life I've campaigned for independence.

0:51:050:51:07

It's not featured much in this campaign.

0:51:070:51:09

Well, because we took the decision in 2004, when I came back as leader,

0:51:090:51:15

that we'd pursue independence in terms of a referendum policy.

0:51:150:51:18

-That's the right way to do it.

-Did you hold a referendum?

0:51:180:51:21

Well, Michael, I got beaten three times in votes in the Scottish Parliament,

0:51:210:51:25

and it would have been very foolish for me to give my political opponents

0:51:250:51:29

the satisfaction of stomping all over my referendum bill when I knew what they were going to do.

0:51:290:51:33

There will be a time when they won't be stomping over too much.

0:51:330:51:37

I've witnessed a small sample of Alex Salmond's campaigning energy.

0:51:390:51:44

He's been on the stump since he was a teenager,

0:51:440:51:48

and despite some spectacular setbacks and years of frustration,

0:51:480:51:52

he's sat right back and started all over again.

0:51:520:51:56

As one who's had his ups and downs in politics,

0:51:560:51:58

I wondered whether it was the bear pit of Scottish politics that had given him that resilience.

0:51:580:52:04

I think there's a tendency in the Scottish National Party to recognise how great the odds are against you

0:52:040:52:10

and therefore always to be prepared to come back no matter what happens.

0:52:100:52:13

You've got to remember, Alex is of a generation in the SNP, as I am,

0:52:130:52:17

where, with the exception of the 1970s,

0:52:170:52:21

it was a pretty miserable time in the early '60s, '70s, early '80s, certainly through the '80s.

0:52:210:52:26

So in those circumstances you've got to, if you're going to stay in politics, be resilient.

0:52:260:52:30

But he's resilient as a human being, without a doubt.

0:52:300:52:33

'During the course of making this film, I watched an amazing shift in public support.

0:52:330:52:38

'Going into the election, Labour led in the polls.

0:52:380:52:42

'But the campaign produced perhaps the biggest turnaround in any modern British election.'

0:52:420:52:48

Politicians pretend to ignore opinion polls.

0:52:490:52:53

Yeah, right(!) Good polls fire your adrenaline, and bad polls make you want to hide away.

0:52:530:53:00

The prediction was that Alex Salmond could achieve something close to an overall majority.

0:53:020:53:07

I'm told that those close to him were sceptical that things could be that good.

0:53:070:53:12

In fact, they turned out better.

0:53:120:53:15

-TV:

-'..the Scottish National Party, SNP, 140,749 votes.'

0:53:250:53:32

Torrance, David. Scottish National Party, 12,579 votes.

0:53:330:53:39

CHEERING AND APPLAUSE

0:53:390:53:42

'I declare David Torrance elected to serve in the Scottish Parliament'

0:53:420:53:45

as a member for the Kirkcaldy constituency.

0:53:450:53:48

'After the SNP landslide, this is a changed Scotland.

0:53:530:53:58

'The party asked, keep Alex Salmond as First Minister.

0:53:580:54:02

'And the voters duly did.

0:54:020:54:04

'Scotland said yes not to independence but to Alex Salmond,

0:54:040:54:09

'for his competence, charisma, gambles and showmanship.

0:54:090:54:14

'They've handed him an overall majority.

0:54:140:54:17

'Now nothing can stop him bringing forward a referendum on Scotland's future.

0:54:170:54:22

'How close is he now to delivering independence?'

0:54:220:54:27

If the SNP were to change its tactic and its narrative, I think it would find itself so close to independence

0:54:270:54:35

it would probably frighten it, because although people are not interested per se

0:54:350:54:40

in independence or devolution or any other constitutional question,

0:54:400:54:45

they are interested in how they live their life

0:54:450:54:49

and what future their children are likely to have

0:54:490:54:52

and in how services are delivered in present-day Scotland.

0:54:520:54:56

And if it is proved to them,

0:54:560:55:00

if they come to believe that these would be better delivered by a sovereign Scottish parliament,

0:55:000:55:06

then people would vote for that.

0:55:060:55:08

Can we unionists be confident that he won't win a referendum on independence?

0:55:080:55:12

Nobody going into a referendum can be confident that they're going to win on either side.

0:55:120:55:16

This has to be fought for.

0:55:160:55:18

I think a lot of the people who voted for the nationalists

0:55:180:55:22

at the Scottish election weren't voting for independence.

0:55:220:55:26

The big question as to whether or not we remain part of the United Kingdom

0:55:260:55:30

and how that affects each and every one of us and our children and generations to come,

0:55:300:55:35

that's one that has got to be fought in detail, which is why there has to be the political space,

0:55:350:55:39

whether Alex Salmond likes it nor not,

0:55:390:55:42

to be critical of what he is saying, because some of it, frankly, doesn't stand up.

0:55:420:55:46

Let me summarise now the strength of Alex Salmond's position to you.

0:55:460:55:50

When there comes to be a referendum on independence, the Yes campaign will be led by Alex Salmond.

0:55:500:55:54

The No campaign will be led by who?

0:55:540:55:57

Well, that depends when the referendum is.

0:55:570:56:00

But my guess is it will be led by people from right across the spectrum.

0:56:000:56:03

But, you know, the people in Scotland are, you know, very aware of what's at stake here.

0:56:030:56:08

This isn't going to be a beauty contest.

0:56:080:56:10

You know, this is something that would happen, and if it happened, it would happen forever.

0:56:100:56:15

Perhaps so, but what sort of autonomy might be offered to the Scots in a referendum?

0:56:150:56:20

I think the SNP'S been on a journey these last few years.

0:56:200:56:23

In the past, when power was a distant prospect, independence was simply a slogan.

0:56:230:56:29

As they've gained power, they're having to think about it, they're having to mature.

0:56:290:56:33

And the notion of independence, I think, is in transition.

0:56:330:56:37

I think we're going to move to an ever-looser union.

0:56:370:56:40

That's what the SNP will understand. There will always be a United Kingdom in some shape or form.

0:56:400:56:45

The SNP isn't yet ready to say that, but that's where they're heading,

0:56:450:56:48

I suspect, a more confederal-type relationship.

0:56:480:56:52

Maybe, maybe this election result will give the SNP leadership

0:56:520:56:55

the courage to say what I believe they actually think.

0:56:550:56:59

This is Kirkcaldy, where my mother grew up.

0:57:020:57:05

They've elected Labour politicians here since the 1930s.

0:57:050:57:09

Last week, the Holyrood seat was won by the SNP.

0:57:090:57:14

It was the 65th seat to return a Scottish Nationalist,

0:57:140:57:18

the constituency that guaranteed Alex Salmond's absolute majority.

0:57:180:57:23

Understandably, it made him happy.

0:57:230:57:26

Well, ladies and gentlemen,

0:57:260:57:29

Kirkcaldy's my kind of town. LAUGHTER

0:57:290:57:33

It's my kind, too.

0:57:330:57:35

Believe it or not, I used to sunbathe on the beach here during childhood holidays.

0:57:350:57:41

'After weeks of following this historic campaign,

0:57:410:57:44

'I think I understand the Alex Salmond phenomenon.

0:57:440:57:47

'But the election result has thrown up a bigger question concerning the future of the United Kingdom.'

0:57:470:57:55

People in Scotland tell me there's little support for independence.

0:57:560:58:00

But as the recent referendum in the UK on the alternative vote shows, opinion shifts fast.

0:58:000:58:06

And the First Minister's recent landslide re-election shows that he's persuasive.

0:58:060:58:12

Soon, there will be a referendum on a whole new relationship between England and Scotland.

0:58:120:58:19

Have a flutter on it if you like.

0:58:190:58:21

But you don't often make money betting against Alex Salmond.

0:58:210:58:25

Subtitles by Red Bee Media Ltd

0:58:460:58:49

E-mail [email protected]

0:58:490:58:52

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