Wales and the Scottish Referendum

In a few days to Scots will vote to decide whether or not to leave the

UK. Whichever way it goes, it could bruise and Wales with problems as

well as opportunities. If Scotland leaves, we'll be left in the smaller

UK, even more outnumbered by our next-door neighbours, but if they

stay we could get lost in the noise, the poor relation. The Times

they are changing and noise, the poor relation. The Times

the people's future and 300 years of their history are at stake in this

vote. Welsh politics can feel disengaged and in danger of drift.

In a place like the birthplace of the NHS, people are

In a place like the birthplace of all a bit managerial and unexciting.

And it's a long way from a Scotland alive with debate and heated

discussion. We can govern ourselves better than anyone else. You can't

keep spending money you haven't got. What I don't understand if it so

good in the UK, why in Scotland do we have one in nine children living

in extreme poverty? The Scottish Government get over ?34 billion of

money to spend. It's not just in Scotland that argument and ambition

are on the rise. In the North of England and in Westminster you can

hear the noise of battles over the future. If we are about to change

the union again in their favour, maybe we should change in England's

favour at the same time. If we have to fight, we will and we will

survive. In Scotland, the North of England and Westminster I've been

assessing the challenges for Wales in what's likely to be a fast

changing UK and asking people if there is a vision which could unite

and inspire our nation. On the hillside here, the memorial stones

stand mute and largely visited. A silent now is the heavy industries

that forged Welsh values, values that helped shape Britain. Now as

the UK faces major constitutional change, where's the vision for

Wales? What sort of country do we want to live in in the 21st-century?

Ladies and gentlemen, give it up for King Robert the Bruce, hero of

Scotland. Welcome to the battlefield of Bannockburn, just outside

Stirling and the celebrations of the 700th anniversary of Robert the

Bruce's victory against the English in the first Scottish War of

independence. All around this site, people are enjoying and indulging in

Scottish history, culture and folklore. Generally the Scots are a

bit better that we are at remembering their distant past. That

might be because they tended to win some of their wars while we lost all

hours! That meant they kept a lot of the national institution that we

until recently, lacked but that's not really what this is about. This

is really just a heritage event. And though there is plenty of grunting

and yelling, and it all looks suitably dream in the driving

Scottish rain, the whole thing was presented in a jolly and welcoming

fashioning phi visit Scotland. Now there's no doubt that there the

odd sniff of anti-English sentiment lingering in Scotland. But by and

large it's been pretty absent from the debate over Scottish

independence 2014. We want a Scotland which is greener, fairer

and more prosperous. Alex Salmond and his lieutenants have been busily

projecting the image of a confident and inclusive nation, a nation to

which anyone living in Scotland can belong. Equally no campaigners have

been keen to emphasise that they are proud Scots to a man and a woman.

Let us never yield one inch to the suggestion that this is somehow an

auction of Pat Richards in which the Nationalists are the highest

bidders. Both sides say it's all about ideas for tomorrow, not

identity. Neither side has been talking much about the past, they've

been talking about how you create a more prosperous Scotland and how you

use that prosperity to tackle the inequalities of this country. The

yes side so you can't do that within the union, well the no side insists

you can share the resources of the UK. But how is that debate playing

out in the different communities of Scotland? I've come to the once

battered but now reborn city of Glasgow and first up I meeting the

well-known expert on voting behaviour and political attitudes,

John Curtis of Strathclyde University. We have areas of immense

poverty and deprivation. People may think I'm not getting anything from

the current settlement, what have I got to lose? How much of a part is

that playing and how people vote? One thing that distinguishes the

different voters is those people who are from working-class backgrounds,

who live in deprived areas, they seem to be rather more inclined to

vote yes than those in more secure occupations in the nicer, leafy

parts of Scotland. Those two sections of Scottish society have

different views under what is the essential issue in this campaign for

most people, which is whether or not you think that as a result of

independence Scotland will be a richer country or not. Is

independence going to deliver economic benefit because Scotland

will be a run the economy in their way which meets its own needs. Those

who have less to lose, for whom perhaps taking what many people seem

to regard as the risk of independence, they are more willing

to vote yes. Those who have more to lose, the middle-class etc, they are

much less willing to vote yes. When you predict elections, you have to

do two things. What people think and how they vote. With this one you -

looks like there's not much question about the second one, the turnout be

high. We are looking at a contest in which there is extraordinary passion

on both sides of the argument. In the way that 30 or 40 years ago

people said I definitely want Labour to win the Conservatives to win. A

passion which is now much rarer about our party politics. The second

thing is that most people seem to accept this is an important choice.

Whether or not Scotland becomes independent. The answer to that

question matters and all the opinion polls say that. Maybe 80% of people

are going to out and vote. One opinion poll said to people, have

you had a conversation with other people about independence? 60% of

people said yes. There are conversations going on,

peer-to-peer, person-to-person, about this referendum and politics

has been revived in a way we now thought was lost.

You could say which ever side winds on Thursday, the real victor has

been a more active democracy. Want to hear the voices of working-class

Scotland because they are the people who are likely to decide the

results, people who would normally be regarded as Labour voters. And I

want to meet younger people because it is a generation battle and

16-year-olds have the vote in this referendum. Famous amongst high-rise

projects of Glasgow is this Drumchapel estate. I am visiting a

project that seeks to fight unemployment, vandalism and drug

addiction. I am meeting young men with mixed views on independence. If

I can start with you, Peter, how much interest is there in this

referendum? It is massive. There are so mini people involved in

grassroots campaigns who would normally not do that. It is because

of the disengagement. I am 32 years old and never voted because I've

failed there has never been a point because my vote has never helped. Do

you feel that way? It is grassroots politics. Choosing your government

is a massive decision. It is a decision for my children and the

next generation. I love my country, but there is a lot of issues and

things that are still up in the air and that is why I don't want to

commit my vote as yet. You are inclining towards yes, what matters

were playing on your mind? I studied in college in the east end of

Glasgow. There is a giant poster which says something along the lines

of, financially stronger in the UK. I looked around me and there were

shutters, derelict buildings and I thought, that will continue to go on

if we remain part of the UK. Jamie, you are 16 and will be voting for

the first time and planning to vote no, what is swaying you that way?

Money. England could take the stuff they have given us. We will have

nothing. You think Scotland needs England to survive last remark I

don't then we need England, but we could use their help. I am guessing

when Alex Salmond decided 16-year-olds could vote in this

referendum he would be thinking you would be voting yes. He must be

disappointed, what is it about this that seems to scare you? What if

something major happens? We don't know... What ever you do their rig

risks. You have one side saying these are the figures. Another set

of experts and figures say it would be a disaster. You have the boss of

shell saying they would not work in Scotland. They are scaremongering.

How do you go back? What about 15 years down the line and we think

this independence isn't working, do we get out the begging bowl. They

really don't care. There is risks and it might not work. I don't think

we will crawl back, but what can we do? We're not an oil-rich nation, we

have other riches and yet we have food banks. Do you think... You have

to think if it is a fairer society. Whether it is your goal in life. To

someone used to the apathy apart of the Welsh electorate there was

something inspiring about the deep engagement of the young men of

Drumchapel. The Scottish Street has been switched on politically and its

views are challenging for the UK's governing elite. What was striking

talking to people in Drumchapel was that while there were mixed views on

independence, nobody had any confidence in the ability of the UK

to deliver change. Parliament and government in Westminster were

regarded West, irrelevant and at worst, benevolent. If that is the

case across Scotland, this could be what is predicted all along, a fight

between hope and fear. So far I have deliberately steered clear of

current professional politicians and I will keep that up. But it is time

to hear from some activists in the campaign. Pacific tea on the River

Clyde is one of the newest developments in modern Glasgow. You

might recognise it from the Commonwealth Games. It is here I am

meeting the journalist and former Labour member of the Scottish

Parliament who supports the Better Together campaign and the

pro-independence is this woman, Michelle Thomson. She is convinced

Scotland needs control of its own finances if it is to be an equal

society. The Scottish Parliament only has control over 7% of its

fiscal money. 85% of the decision-making resting with

Westminster. That is not correct. The decision-making under 85% does

not lie with Westminster, that is why we had devolution. This

democratic deficit, that is wide Parliament was created. You have

been in Drumchapel, you can see what has been happening there. It had a

lot of issues to do with poverty but there are new houses being built,

jobs being created and tackling those issues. The Scottish

Parliament has control over all domestic issues and control over its

own economy, control over transport and health. The SNP have been in

control for seven years so they cannot start shouting

control for seven years so they problems over the health. They get

aliens are pounced to spend an regard as priorities. What I don't

alligator -- regard as priorities. What I don't

understand is if it is so good in the UK, why in Scotland do we

understand is if it is so good in one in nine children living in

extreme poverty. That is Oxfam one in nine children living in

does not have control over that, we can do so much better. Why would the

SNP not to vote... I represent can do so much better. Why would the

business organisation. You represent the Scottish Parliament. It has tax

business organisation. You represent varying powers. It doesn't. It is

business organisation. You represent interest on VAT, capital gains tax,

where does the tax go? And so interest on VAT, capital gains tax,

question. It comes back to Scotland. We raised more tax per

question. It comes back to head of population in Scotland

question. It comes back to they do in the UK. You have not been

keeping up with the numbers. We can verify that. We have had more back

than we have verify that. We have had more back

question I have been asking verify that. We have had more back

campaign for the best part of a year. Can you articulate

campaign for the best part of a for Scotland and that is where they

standing in my ambition of what Scotland should be. The children

visit the science centre. What about Scotland should be. The children

the ones in extreme poverty? Do you not care about that enough? That is

insulting to say I don't care about poor children. My division for

Scotland for them is they get the same chances in life that I did.

Exactly. It is the sound of the referendum debate. It

Exactly. It is the sound of the and divided and you may have noticed

it could be difficult for a Welshman to get a word in our times. Maybe

that is the way it should be. to get a word in our times. Maybe

Scotland's decision but whatever happens it feels like a watershed

moment in British life. happens it feels like a watershed

time when Glasgow was known as the second city of the British Empire.

time when Glasgow was known as the Who knows, maybe this is where the

Empire and Britain come to die? Soon enough we will now and both of those

answers, but they are answers to produce more questions. Not

answers, but they are answers to Scotland but the other countries of

this currently United Kingdom. Perhaps the sharpest questions our

biggest threats are going to be faced by cars in Wales as others

jockey for position in the transforming or dissolving the

United Kingdom. Crucially the English regions energised by the

Scottish example are pushing for state investments to correct the

imbalance of the economy and counteract the dominance of the

South East. Here in Newcastle, and all across the North of England,

voices are raised which shout loudly in the clamour for development

ending, especially for transport projects which could cost as much as

15 billion. It sounds like the big northern cities might be winning

that argument. Even with a Chancellor whose primary agenda has

been to cut public spending. We need an ambitious plan to make the cities

and towns here in this northern belt radically more connect it from East

to West to create the equivalent of travelling around a single, global

city. As well as fixing the roads in means considering a new High Speed

Rail link. Walking along the banks of the time it feels like Cardiff

Bay. Clean, post-industrial and modern. But not far from here you

will find pockets of deprivation. There are plans to change that. HS2

could reach this far and there is the talk of linking Manchester,

Liverpool, Leeds and Hull. But that could cause problems as well as

opportunities for Wales. I have arranged to meet a major

entrepreneur on Tyneside. Jeffrey Ford is a man with strong views

about politicians down south and the urgent needs of his own patch. We

are a long way from Westminster and even further away from the minds of

those supposedly in power in Westminster. How much political

clout do you think you have appear as a region? You have a Scottish

government and a Welsh government? Non-. Anyone in this part of the

world will tell you that come the next general election 95% of the

returned MPs will be Labour. The Labour Party know that so there is

no point in them doing anything to help the North East. The other

parties know it will be the outcome so there is no point in them doing

anything to help the North East. So we are still left to fend for

ourselves. But we are getting used to it and we are good at it. We are

proud of the fact it is the only region in the United coming to --

United Kingdom that is a net exporter. People think it is the

Nissan effect. Nissan is a big net importer as well. We have done that

largely on our own. Without government assistance. We obviously

need help. We are not too proud to admit that. We need help and support

but I don't see it coming from central government. It is not about

balancing the English economy, politicians are normally referring

to Manchester, Leeds and Liverpool may be. Those south of you, you

could left out again. Miles away from where we are. HS2, HS three

does not come as far as the North East. It is a long way off and to be

excluded at this point, does not go down well. Why we are struggling now

is the disillusion of the regional development agency. It is, I

believe, regarded as being the most successful of the regional

development agencies. They were dissolved by the Tories, pickles in

particular. Labour invented them so therefore they can't be any good. In

Wales, they will be saying not more regions competing. If the North goes

up, we go down. It may be the case. Wales has the same degree of passion

we do here. If we have to fight for our own survival, we will fight and

we will survive will stop it is a sobering thought for a Welsh person

that all over the UK there are rival voices claiming to be hard done by.

In this climate, it seems unlikely the grand deal decided by the famous

Amit formula will get any better. -- Barnett formula. Coming to the

north-east is a reminder not all a reminder not all economies are

created equal. In the north-east, as government spends more than it

raises in taxes. There is an interesting argument in Scotland

whether they would be more prosperous as an independent

country. You can argue it either way. But there is one part of the

country that will be better off where it to cast off the shackles of

the UK. That is the Singapore of the Southeast - London. Babs that is the

whole point. This argument about increasing state investment in the

devolved nations and in the regions of England has enemies on the banks

of the Thames at Westminster. There are figures on the rights of reddish

politics who are quick to point out the prosperity of London and the

south-east is already generously funding public spending elsewhere in

the UK. We also starting to hear debut England as a whole needs a

better deal from any future constitutional settlement the

Scottish vote. I am meeting the former Secretary of State for Wales,

John Redwood, who has strong views on the status of England. Can I ask

you about the dog who has not barked yet, which is England. Do you sense

there is English resentment at the devolution settlement as it exists

now and as it could develop? England has been very tolerant, we wish to

stay friends with our Welsh and Scottish neighbours and Northern

Irish neighbours. We understand there are responsibilities on the

largest country within the union. But something has changed and the

Scottish debate has made more English people ask themselves, is

this the union we want? Scotland has the right to settle it unilaterally

for Scotland. We are saying, we would like a voice now. We believe

Scotland has every right to decide whether they want to leave or to

stay. But if we are to change the union again in their favour, maybe

we should change it in our favour as well. Are you saying the English

people have the same sovereign rights? Yes, it is a strange phrase

because Scotland is not independent. It will only become appropriate as a

phrase if they become independent. It should be the sovereign wishes of

the United Kingdom people. But haps the English people will want a

stronger voice and most of my English electors are saying to me on

the subject, we don't want lopsided devolution any more, what is good

for Scotland should also be good for Wales and England. If you start

giving Scotland the power to choose its own taxes in some cases it

becomes unacceptable that you might have Scottish members of the

Westminster Parliament imposing taxes on Wales and in England, he

could not impose on Scottish people themselves. Turning to Wales, not

much has changed over 15 years since devolution. Is it a sign devolution

has failed or assign in your view, the wronged party has been in

charge? I start from the proposition on the whole, there are limits to

what government can achieve and what makes a society prosperous and

successful is the people themselves. All the government can

do is create a framework and try not to get in the way too much. If the

government does too much, the talented people leave. The

government has to be aware of the balance. I belong to the Dummett

track sick -- Democratic physician when if somebody is ill we should

collect taxes from others to make sure they have a reasonable

lifestyle. But if the government can drive a higher rate of growth in the

economy, you will fail. The London economy has been dominant and

successful along with the south-east around it. London and the South East

together have the lowest spending per head than anywhere in the United

Kingdom but the fastest growth rate. So it is not a magic

ingredient which powers the growth in London and the South East. You

talk about London, but where ever we have gone, there is this resentment

in parts of the UK at the moment. Do you recognise that? There is some of

that and it is very sad. When you have got some ring as successful as

the London and South East economy as part of your country, you should be

part of it and learn how you can benefit from it. Used intelligently

it is of benefit to the United Kingdom. The only reason we can

afford the higher levels of public spending in Scotland and Wales is we

raise so much tax from London from these successful as Mrs and highly

paid people. Large chunks of our income tax receipts come from highly

paid people and they work within a few miles of where we are doing this

interview today in central London. But there is another way, London and

the South East provides a market and it is easier to sell into that

market than try to export to China and other places around the world

achieving high growth rates. Sensible people understand that

having something successful in your country is good news and achieve

something off the back of it. Are you thinking what he is thinking?

Maybe not. But there are plenty of people in the south-east to think

John Redwood has a point. The only thing that seems to unite the

kingdom at a moment is nobody is happy with the way things are. Where

does that leave us? Let's go to Wales and find out. Throughout this

journey ya have been hairy -- hearing what people want from

government and politicians. It Wales is going to have a shout in this

tough and competitive environments, we could need a new partnership

between our leaders and our people. Currently the political engagement

we are seeing everywhere in Scotland seems conspicuously absent,

especially among the young in Wales. I wish we could do politics in a

better way than we do now. It would be nice to have a young, political

leader who can relate to young people. I don't trust politicians

and I don't think they can keep their promises they make. These

young people are involved in a workshop run by a theatre company

based in the Avenue Valley. Perry is the manager and she has been

listening to the opinions of people in their teens and 20s who don't

engage in politics all with politicians. If ever I say politics

to a young person, often their response will be, I don't really

know much about politics, I don't do that stuff. This is a generation who

have grown up with devolution, do they differentiate between

Westminster politicians, Cardiff Bay politicians and Carmarthen

politicians? I don't think they feel part of the world, those suits and

the people who talk on the telly. It can be a bit of a blur. Those people

will do what they want to do anyway, does it make a difference? I think

there are young people who are more informed, but if feels like, well,

what ever they are going to do, they are going to do it anyway so I don't

have a say. Then there is that this connection. Is there a vision that

can bring people together? I would like to hope so. I think the only

way to make that shift is to keep working and developing on that sense

of belonging to something, feeling part of something, knowing your

voice is valued. Knowing that if you say something someone will listen.

Does it come from the bottom up, does it need leadership from the

top? It can work from both ways to find that place in the middle

where, we as people on the ground feel more empowered and our leaders

listen to others and serve others rather than the other way around.

Perhaps young people will think, if Scotland were to make such a

dramatic change in the next, in this vote, then is that something that

will spark more, to reinvigorate young people in this country to

think, if they can have something, can we have it? It seems clear to me

that Welsh politics isn't grabbing the attention of the citizens of

Wales. A sense of the vision which Alvin eyes is the nation seems to be

missing. I am ending might vision with two elder statesman. Rhodri

Morgan and the former leader of plague Cymru. I am keen to start

with the apparent failure of politics to engage the public. One

thing I found interesting in Scotland is there was a level of

engagement in politics there that I don't think we have ever seen in

Wales. Are there lessons for Wales on how to get people engaged? You

don't have to do something as dramatic as a referendum on

independence to galvanise people to get off their backsides and go out

to a meeting in the local church hall with yes and no represented. We

certainly had nothing like this in the last referendum in 2011 which

went through easily. Not enough challenge. This is seen as some in

closer as to a life or death issue. As would any referendum we may or

may not have over member ship of the EU. It would be a bigger issue and

will galvanise England and Wales and Scotland if it was still in the UK.

When you come to Wales and you think why people are not relating to

politics, it is because the decision taken will not make that much

difference. The amount of money we get is determined by a formula. The

way in which we use the money is also defined. There or the freedom

which Rhodri's government had when they were in power was on the

margins. If you can make a difference with 10% of your budget,

you were lucky to be able to do that. One of the things that has not

happened in Wales that could help this forward, is to draw more of our

policy in Wales itself will stop I would like to have seen the Labour

Party in Wales growing more autonomous and developing policies

in its own right. I think it is an unfair criticism. Many of the

changes that were pushed through in relation to education and so on, we

did not follow them. We were following what we felt were Labour

Party policy and they were into new Labour policies. There was a wide

divide. Wouldn't you agree in order to excite young voters and them out,

it is not just a matter of doing some ring positive, but something

new and fresh and vibrant? It did have elements of that as well. It is

just this issue that Tony Blair was taking the new Labour Party, wasn't

one we wanted to follow and we exercise our right not to follow it.

I think it was one of the reasons why the 2003 election is one where

we did get a response from the public in Wales because they

understood the difference between Blairism on the one side and Morgan

on the other side. Between new Labour and classic Labour. Making a

difference improve the chances of engaging the public, but all minds

will be on the difference the Scottish vote will make, one way or

the other. Let's imagine there was a yes vote. What does it mean for

Wales? The most obvious thing is Scotland takes its share of the

Barnett formula away from the equation. Therefore funding itself

and we will have better opportunities to get a proper reform

of our midst. Up the moment Scotland is doing well out of Barnett but

Wales is doing badly. But with the loss of Scotland, would it also mean

Wales would be facing up to a right of centre government from

Westminster almost ad infinitum? There are elections that Labour

would still have won in 19 66. What I believe it would do to Wales if

Scotland votes yes is give the confidence to look in those terms

ourselves. If Scotland succeeds in negotiating its own place within the

European Union, which I think is fundamental to the whole project,

that will be a boost for those of us in Wales. Rhodri Morgan, do you

think people in Wales with the inspired by Scotland? It would

change the political geography of Great Britain. If you take one part

away it is one half of the non-English part of the United

Kingdom and having no counterweight to the dominance of England. That

puts Wales and Northern Ireland into some difficulties. What does it do

about consciousness of Wales as a nation if Scotland was to leave

Ashton Mark well, people would think about it. I think they would

recognise the different history, geography and economics. We don't

have North Sea oil which is keeping this national dream of

self-sufficiency going. Certainly in Alex Salmond's mind, that is his big

obsession. If you gave him control of North Sea oil he would not be

worrying about independence in the sense of a separate member. It is

North Sea oil and gas he wants control of, because that is what has

given Scotland such buoyancy economically since the mid-70s and

what we lack. Once people realise that, they realise if Wales was

independent, how would we pay the pensions? Let's look at happens if

it is a no vote and all sorts of problems have been made by the

Unionists parties. Do you think those promises will be capped or

will it be like 1979? It is very easy to make promises that are not

quite 100% watertight in the run-up to a referendum and give hints and

make suggestions. Then, when the threat has gone, it disappears. I

have heard numerous people talking in Westminster, right this is the

last referendum we will have. If they can nail the thing there cannot

be another referendum call by the Scottish Government, they will feel

freer to abandon any promises we have got to stop I would not trust

them further than I can kick them. If the three party leaders have

said, as they have in early August, but there will be one definition of

devolution, using Northern Ireland as a template, so anything Northern

Ireland has got with devolution and partial devolution, plus a model of

increased powers to raise and lower income tax, it will make the

Scottish Parliament more responsible. It will also meet

national aspirations. I don't see why that would not go through.

There's not that much difference between the Alex Salmond version of

independent where you would still be in NATO, still have the BBC and so

on. Devo Max. It is not actually as black and white as it seems. I am

certain it is a spectrum. That spectrum blends into each other and

it varies with regards to which territory you are talking about and

it varies with regards to function. There are some functions, because of

their nation -- talk about the environment. So-called independent

nation state each with its army and closed border, it is passive. You

have more clout by pooling your power into a nation state of 63

million people in terms of NATO and what seed should get and what power

you play in the UN and the EU, then you would as small nation state. The

Scandinavians and the Baltics play a significant role, if they are clever

enough. But it can never be the same role as Britain, France, Germany,

Italy and Spain. Is it a question of whether the UK or the rest of the UK

and Scotland separately will remain part of the European Union? If we

are outside the European Union we are talking about a different ball

game. Within the European Union it make sense, we can find the right

level and an effective voice in relation to our neighbours around

Britain and also through to the European Union. If we are outside, I

am not sure I like the United Kingdom that could herald. Our elder

statesman are animated by the challenges of the changing UK. But

it's not an urgency you find amongst the Welsh population or in many

discussions in Cardiff Bay. It does not feel Wales is on the front foot

in shaping our future politically. The future is another country, or so

they say. In this case could literally be true. What struck me in

Scotland is there was a fair degree of consensus of the sort of country

they wanted. A country more equal, socially democratic and outward

looking. In Wales, we seem to be arguing all the time about

government structures without a clear picture of the Wales we want.

While that remains the case, we will probably continue travelling in

Scotland's wake.