Brexit: A Very British Coup?

It became the biggest event in modern British history -

the referendum.

But it was really a family row,

one raging in the Conservative Party for over half a century.

If you were to ask me, do I wish David Cameron, that

he hadn't said that he would have a referendum, yes, I bloody well do!

Watch out, team. Watch out.

'Boris Johnson revealed he wants to leave the European Union yesterday.'

I wanted to make a film about the row,

follow the family in the last month before polling.

It gave me a unique perspective on the biggest story of our time.

It's going to be absolutely fine.

Not here. 'I like Boris, makes everybody laugh.'

It just seemed to me that he'd lost the plot rather.

Everyone playing their allotted part - mischievous uncle,

angry brothers, even pantomime villain.

It's not just Remain that think you're a liability, the Vote Leave people do as well.

They won't have anything to do with you.

You are sexist, that you are racist... Very good.

..that you are toxic. Bits of sort of outrageous abuse,

but then I'm Nigel Farage, so I'd be disappointed if I didn't, really.

And, like all good family rows, it ends in tears.

I told you we were going to win and I told you the Prime Minister would have to go.

The ruthlessness is the thing that always shocks people.

I am quite upset by it, actually.

You know, one day he is there and the next, he's not.

I think a good guy has been basically...binned.

You ain't seen nothing yet.

At times of strife, families exclude outsiders,

so - no surprise - getting to real candour isn't easy,

whether it's at David Cameron's carefully choreographed Remain events

or Boris Johnson's eccentric cross-country pilgrimage,

from brewery to cattle market.

Who'll give me ?800 for this beautiful specimen -

a Gisburn-reared, contented cow?

INAUDIBLE

Enjoying it, Boris? Yeah. How could you not?

'That's my first and, indeed,

'last question to Boris for quite some time.

'Leave spinners take umbrage at such a probing inquiry.

'Their loss, my gain.

'It pushes me to people who do talk about how the vote is

'actually won and what's really at stake.'

We have let a lot of passionate genies out of the bottle,

I might say, on this occasion,

and getting them back in might be a bit problematic!

There's one particular genie

that all family members wish would vanish.

The Remanians are throwing everything they've got at this -

threats, fears,

telling us dire things will happen to us unless we continue to be

run by a bunch of unelected old men in Brussels, and it's not washing.

I genuinely think it's tight, but the passion, the energy,

is on the Leave side of the argument.

Whatever his passion, the rest of the media aren't listening.

That's because Vote Leave have refused to allow Nigel any

part in their campaign - too toxic.

And Remain's elders are only too happy to agree.

I think Farage is a busted flush, completely busted flush, you know.

He couldn't even win a parliamentary seat in Thanet or wherever it

was for the third time of asking, you know.

I don't take Farage seriously.

I mean, he's just a sort of caddish little loudmouth.

While the polls fluctuate wildly,

Nigel Farage sets off on a cross-Britain tour, aiming for

the audiences other campaigns aren't reaching - core Labour voters.

Today, it's the West Country - local anarchists and an alarmed

police force lying in wait.

He's been joined by an old ally - let's call him

a distant cousin - a former Cabinet minister defying Leave orders

to stay away from Farage.

Are you threatening trouble? Not here.

And you and Nigel Farage? Yep. Is that unusual? Not really, you know.

All the crosses look the same when they're being counted!

I put my bet on on Thursday. I never bet.

HE LAUGHS

I don't ever bet. I've never bet on a horse in my entire life. Really?

I've only ever once been in a bookies,

and that was when I was canvassing.

Well, you're very low on vices, Liam!

THEY LAUGH

Yeah, it's going very well. I've been on the road for a fortnight.

Most of my time has been spent in Labour areas.

And the reason for that is that there's not as much of a debate

going on in Labour areas because the Labour Party is so quiet.

In fact, some think that Jeremy Corbyn's gone missing.

Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome Nigel Farage.

APPLAUSE

After 25 years of campaigning for the British people to have a vote,

I almost can't believe that it's only 19 days away.

I'm delighted,

and I think the wind has turned and it is now with the Leave campaign.

I really do.

They tell us we're not big enough as a country,

we're not strong enough as a country, to make our own laws,

to make our own trade deals,

to control our own borders and to be the masters of our own destiny.

And what we've got to say is

we demand our historic right to govern our own country.

Let's do it!

CHEERING AND APPLAUSE

All I need's the right beer named after me.

That's all we need - a proper British pint. Good brand.

Pint of Farage, please!

LAUGHTER

There was a lovely cartoon this week in the Telegraph,

and it was me at the bar - as they always do -

with a pint of Australian Points System beer,

and there's Gove and Boris saying,

"Barman, we'll have the same as he's having."

It was brilliant. Are you ready?

Thanks very much. See you soon. Thank you very much.

Boris and Michael still want nothing publicly to do with Nigel,

though I discover that, privately, they're talking to him all the time.

Three days ago, they nicked Farage's immigration policy -

the Australian points system.

Points, as ever,

mean prizes, and Leave's poll numbers start to creep up.

Two hours later, 50 miles west,

and a very different pace of life awaits me.

I'm intruding on a considerably more genteel branch of the family -

a debate between the man running Conservative In and the local MP,

who's firmly out. Hello, hello. How are you?

There's a bottle of brandy cider. You can't be...

Is that for me? Yes, that's for you. Oh, how enormously kind!

Every day and everywhere, it gets better and better and now,

every minute! Our majority's rising steadily.

You see, we're the future and their Europe's the past.

BELL TOLLS For whom the bell tolls?

And for whom the bell is dutifully tolling, yes.

We've got the future,

we've got Boris and Gove and all these exciting figures.

There's no petrol left in their tank.

Today, they had to wheel out Neil Kinnock. I think that says something, don't you?

When we are competing in a global marketplace,

we don't want to leave the European Union, wreck our economy and,

in that sense, ruin the future life chances of children

and grandchildren, perhaps of yourselves in this room.

APPLAUSE

Well, ladies and gentlemen, you heard it here first.

Greece, Spain - they're not basket cases.

They're these wonderful economies -

youth unemployment heading towards 50%.

The Italian economy hasn't grown since 2000 but, clearly,

it's a wonderful, successful economy.

How lucky we are to be shackled to our Italian friends(!)

We creep away as Jacob wins his debate hands down.

It's almost too painful to watch.

This morning, as the EU campaign heads towards knockout,

we have Sir John Major, former Prime Minister, arguing for Remain.

And what they have said about leaving is fundamentally

dishonest, and it's dishonest about the cost of Europe.

And on the subject that they've veered towards,

having lost the economic argument of immigration,

I think their campaign is verging on the squalid.

While Nigel and Jacob scrap it out on the ground,

Leave and Remain are heading for the TV studios.

Worried by the endlessly changing polls,

Remain double up the doom, sending out

a patriarch to question the errant Leave children's iniquity.

To my surprise, Leave are thrilled,

particularly the hedge fund billionaire backing them.

I thought, John, I never thought you were like Ted Heath but now I do!

You know, how bad-tempered he was towards Maggie,

that nothing she did was ever of any value.

And, in much the same way,

he just can't resist absolutely doing in Boris.

And, the trouble is, the more he does that, the more Joe Public thinks, great!

The fighter opening up.

I mean, if you looked at the John Major interview on Sunday,

I thought it was quite extraordinary.

You had a former Prime Minister launching a vicious attack on

a member of his own party

who could potentially be the next party leader.

This is civil war at its worst.

And if you've got civil war, then you actually have to create

conditions which allow for reconciliation and for moving on.

As in all good rows, the Leave leaders' call for moderation fails.

It doesn't help that Gisela is from another family - the Labour Party.

Tory backbenchers ring me, scenting blood.

I think it's about credibility.

I struggle to think that the Prime Minister,

if it's a Leave vote when I'm hoping and working for that,

that the Prime Minister's credibility will be shot and

I think he knows that and those around him certainly know that.

Hello, this is Studio 6C. Is Jacob Rees-Mogg in the studio?

Yes, I'm here, ready and waiting. Excellent.

The producer will be talking to you shortly. OK. Thank you.

MUSIC: Venus by Bananarama

I think I preferred Prime Minister's Questions to what we're getting coming through now!

And I think Project Fear's beginning to be laughed at. Um...

Somebody was saying to me yesterday that the Prime Minister is

beginning to be like the boy who called wolf, and there isn't

this great pack of wolves about to descend on the British public!

I'm going to put these on, actually,

in case they want me to say something.

Have you not, Jacob, in the last few days, just taken such

a pounding from the Remain camp on the economy?

I don't think we've taken a pounding at all.

Look, the Government's cronies

are supporting the Government's position.

I think we are growing in strength and momentum every day,

in every way it gets better and better.

There is one cloud on the Leave horizon.

David Cameron refuses to debate Boris or Michael head-to-head

and picks Nigel tomorrow,

hoping to tarnish Gove et al with the Farage brush.

Mr Farage is facing the Prime Minister tomorrow.

Him up against the Prime Minister, that's one thing.

I would not have shared a platform with him.

I am ecumenical but not saintly.

Pasty of independence!

I'm learning that each campaign has its motif - Leave's bus,

Remain's staged event. Nigel's is a poster.

Barely seen outside London, but each launch catnip to the media.

Yes, on debate day, we're jostling for space with the world's cameras.

Farage back in the limelight again.

I think he believes in

a higher political order that we should be a part of.

And I would say that you cannot be an independent,

self-governing nation and a member of the European Union.

He is utterly and entirely wrong.

The Britain Stronger In Europe campaign says that you are

sexist, that you are racist... Very good. ..that you are toxic.

Very good. Do you think that, tonight,

you'll be able to overcome that and win people over?

Well, at least I tell the truth.

The fact they're stooping to these depths means we are now winning.

But it's not just Remain that think you're a liability. The Vote Leave people do as well.

They won't have anything to do with you.

Well, because they're looking for their jobs in Number 10 after the election's over.

And some people in the Remain camp are saying that you are

the Keyser Soze of this campaign, you are the invisible dark force

who is actually running the Vote Leave campaign.

Well, to be compared to Peter Mandelson is a high compliment.

Away from the chasing pack,

he's happy to show off eight million listeners tuning in to Radio Nigel.

..UK out of Europe.

But while Nigel Farage is playing a leading role ahead of the EU

referendum, he wasn't selected to head the official Leave campaign.

He joins us now. Good afternoon. Good afternoon.

So, how do you feel about...

What was your first thought on waking this morning? Gosh!

HE LAUGHS

Gosh, this is it!

This is the nearest thing that we're going to get to

a head-to-head debate with the Prime Minister in this campaign,

and for him to come out yesterday and say it would put a bomb under

the British economy, I think we've got the chap on the run, you know.

Some Leave people want you to shut up!

They don't want you talking, connecting with people.

Well, because they're worried about the Conservative Party...

poxy Conservative Party and its future.

I don't give a damn about the Conservative Party or the Labour Party!

And frankly, in the context of this referendum, Ukip is a very,

very poor second. This issue, this is about the country.

It's not about wretched careers!

Despite wretched party politics, more and more Conservative MPs are

willing to publicly endorse Farage as he assumes greater prominence.

Nigel Farage is a formidable debater who Nick Clegg massively

underestimated a couple of years ago, to his great cost.

And I think the same thing's happening again.

I think the Remain camp thought that going up against Nigel Farage

was the easy deal.

They thought that they could paint Nigel Farage in a particular way,

and they may well find that they've bungled that, actually.

Good evening.

There are now just 16 days to go

before the UK makes a momentous decision.

Frankly, the cost of membership now far outweighs any benefit.

The things that affect our great country we would have no say over.

I think it is wrong, wrong, wrong! That would damage our economy.

We need to be in this organisation.

We need to get back British passports. I love this country...

How do you think it plays or will play? I don't know.

You can't ask the chap on the pitch how he's doing, can you?

I don't know. I don't know.

I mean, clearly we're entering a, you know,

last two weeks in which it's going to be pretty frantic and it's

probably going to get quite rough.

His contribution infuriates Leave almost as much as Remain.

Overnight, spinners from both whisper calumnies into our ears

about the errant Nigel. It's not a great success.

The polls stay becalmed

as the contest gets ever more heated and bad-tempered.

MUSIC: Habanera from Carmen by Georges Bizet

The race could be tight.

Every vote will count.

And that's why the campaigning has become so frantic.

What's remarkable about my private conversations with both sides

is how little they're thinking about life after the vote.

They just want to win. The future can look after itself.

Worries about that nonchalance are starting to be quietly voiced.

My concern right from the very start was that the risk was that

David Cameron would win the referendum but lose his own party.

Funnily enough, as of today,

it could be completely the other way around.

Including that Boris could win the referendum but actually find

that he is not the darling of the party, so, you know,

the chemistry and the dynamics here are quite complicated

and they are quite entwined and they are far from certain.

'Prosperous and profoundly Tory,

'Sutton Coldfield is the kind of place that Leave have to win.

'I roll up at The Great Debate,

'organised by the local MP Andrew Mitchell.

'Remain Lords Ashdown and Heseltine

'versus Leave's Gisela Stuart and, yes,

'the man she'd never share a platform with.

'Nigel couldn't be happier.'

So, you're running the Leave campaign, I see?

That's what they say! HE LAUGHS

I just do what I do.

Let Osborne say what he likes, let Mr Cameron say what he likes,

I think they're in trouble.

APPLAUSE

That group of unelected old men in Brussels have hijacked

the word Europe and I want us to vote for Brexit

not just so that we are a free, independent democracy,

but so that the rest of Europe follows our example.

Let's have a true Europe.

CHEERING AND APPLAUSE

NATO is stronger with a united Europe and weaker with

a divided one. APPLAUSE

The one-person...

The one person who knows that most of all,

it's president Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.

And for... A RIPPLE OF DISAGREEMENT

Oh, listen, guys.

Just because you boo doesn't mean to say it isn't true.

MIX OF BOOING AND APPLAUSE

So, here is... Here is...

So, here is...

Let me come to the issue of immigration.

And frankly, it's not just about immigration.

It's about race.

Have you watched to see what Marine Le Pen,

what Donald Trump and Nigel Farage are saying about this issue?

SHOUTING AND BOOING

SOME APPLAUSE

You say, "Don't make it personal."

This is Nigel's article in the Daily Telegraph today.

APPLAUSE

Am I not allowed to quote his words? FROM CROWD: No. Oh, I see.

LAUGHTER

Nigel's utterly unmoved by the row over his remarks about "kith and kin."

Gisela, however, is furious.

I am angry.

The Conservatives are trying to make anybody who is for Out

stooges of Farage,

and they've turned up the temperature

in a way which is unhealthy.

Round two.

The other combatants and pretty much all of Sutton Coldfield

squeeze into the pub.

Is Mr Farage a racist? I don't know.

I'd have to look into his mind and I'd rather not.

But there is absolutely no doubt that the way that the Leave campaign

have been playing this argument appeals to those who are racist.

I have no... I mean, this is racist dog whistling.

Go on, get in there, get in there.

Farage is very important,

cos he's created the Leave campaign,

but they're deeply ashamed of him, because they know

what underlines his case. Which is?

Which is this racial, racist and immigrant issue.

Oh, typical. Disgraceful old man. Really? Disgraceful old man.

He should be in the Natural History Museum in my opinion.

Listening to him reminded me why I resigned from

the Conservative Party and that cheered me up.

I've made the right decision!

HE LAUGHS

I have to say, I'm feeling pretty gloomy.

This is an e-mail I sent to one of my best mates last night.

It said, my political antennae make me feel that the anti-immigration

sentiment amongst blue-collar urban England is going viral for Leave.

I thought David Cameron would win for Remain,

but perhaps lose the affections of his own party,

but I now think that Boris will win for Leave but that the

Conservative Party will lose the affections of the country.

SCREAMING

Alan Duncan's isn't a lone voice.

Some Brexiteers are delighted by the public support they're getting,

but surprised nobody can see the coming storm in government.

We were in Southend today,

looking at supposedly one of the world's scariest rollercoasters.

It's nothing to what's going to happen in Parliament.

A referendum often turns into a question that is not being asked,

and essentially what everybody's just saying is, "Screw you."

'Here we are, what, a week before polling?'

I just think the mood as of today is Leave.

We're on the brink.

MUSIC: O Fortuna from Carmina Burana by Carl Orff

I'm hearing rumours that the evil genius behind the Leave poll surge,

one Nigel Farage, may be invited into a post-Brexit Cabinet.

Rumours his team do nothing to deny.

But then...

HUW EDWARDS: Ukip has rejected accusations of racism

after unveiling a poster showing a queue of migrants

at Europe's border with the slogan Breaking Point.

Then it's a short taxi ride to Tower Bridge.

Nigel and the besotted media are going fishing.

Today is not a party, but the destruction of one of Britain's

great industries, directly as a result of the European Union.

MUSIC CONTINUES

MUSIC FROM BOAT: The In Crowd by Bryan Ferry

'Disgusting. Rich people laughing at poor people.

Absolutely disgusting.

They tried to pull off a stunt.

Bob Geldof then did his bit and in the end,

I think Joe Public who really cares about this will have just

looked at it and said, "Children..."

SHE LAUGHS

The traffic was stopped for 20 minutes,

cos they had to keep Tower Bridge open.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, well...

And then we wonder why people despair about democracy.

Vote Leave! Save your country...

The big challenge is to deal with the undeniable anger

that is out there.

They are angry because they feel that those who they have

charged to make decisions on their behalf in government

either are not responding to what they think is important,

or actually now are in institutions where whatever they do,

it doesn't matter.

..before one o'clock today, Jo Cox, MP for Batley and Spenborough,

was attacked in Market Street, Birstall.

I am now very sad to have to report

that she has died as a result of her injuries.

And secondly, an eyewitness, somebody who saw and heard

what happened, said he heard the attacker say, "Britain first" twice.

The words I heard him say was "Britain first" or "put Britain first."

I can't say which, exactly what it was,

but definitely "Britain first" was what he said when it was shouted.

He shouted it at least twice.

THUNDER ROLLS

I was flying up to Glasgow and I literally arrived at the airport

and my messages said, "Ring immediately."

And I rang and what was so extraordinary,

because I was in the, still, sort of, before you get to the luggage.

And there was a young man standing next to me,

and all he heard me say was, "Do we know whether she is still alive?"

And he gets his mobile phone out and flashes up the news item on Jo Cox.

And, well, I just cried.

Any decent person last Thursday

just wanted to curl up in a corner and cry.

Whatever side of the House you're on,

something like that just really cuts us all to the quick.

However, I'm finding a curious dissonance between public mourning

and private calculation.

All campaigning cancelled, Liam Fox is back from Gibraltar,

worried Jo Cox's death is playing into Remain's hands.

I hope that we'll not be hearing people try to use

a tragedy of this proportion to try to change the political tone

or alter the political weather.

I think there's a strong argument to consider, at least next week,

whether we want to extend the period of the referendum itself.

The vote isn't put off.

In the face of a barrage of criticism,

Nigel Farage launches a media onslaught

to try and regain the momentum he had before the MP's death.

George Osborne described your "Breaking Point" poster as vile.

Even Michael Gove, a politician you admire, has disowned it.

Of course, because we've had this terrible, tragic event.

What happened on Thursday lunchtime, Thursday afternoon,

was a terrible, tragic event and you can paint things in all sorts of

different lights afterwards, but as I say,

if you look at the stuff that we've put out in this campaign

and all the stuff Vote Leave has put out, it's very similar.

Excuse me, excuse me. Do you regret that campaign poster?

As I say, I regret the death of an innocent Member of Parliament.

In private conversations, the colder hearts in Vote Leave

don't think "Breaking Point" was a disaster.

They think it kept the debate just where they want it,

immigration.

They encourage Farage back out.

HORN HONKS

Good on ya! We're going to win!

Beware of what you wish for.

Despite frantic calls from Boris begging him not to,

Nigel promptly unveils another poster.

How do you think your referendum's going?

Smashing, thank you very much.

Well done, Nigel. Without you, we wouldn't have it.

All the very best. You've fought for 20 years for this. I know!

Only thing we need is self-confidence and belief

and let's just start believing in Britain, believing in ourselves

and knowing that, actually, all over the world,

the most successful countries are independent democratic nations.

The money behind Farage is largely from one man,

combative insurance multimillionaire, Aaron Banks.

I think it's been a long, hard journey for him.

He started when no-one wanted to listen to him,

up to the point where it's quite amazing that someone

that actually has never been elected to Westminster probably

has become - if we do vote Out -

will be the single most important politician in the last 25 years.

David Beckham has said he's for Remain. Well, of course, he's rich!

Next, it's a dash back into the capital

and a rather frostier reception.

There are only two more days to go until the EU referendum.

Coming into the studio are Nigel Farage

and former Deputy Prime Minister Michael Heseltine.

MUSIC: Vin ou Biere from Faust by Charles Gounod

We simply don't know how many people

are going to be coming into our country.

The basic fact is we have an open door...

The essence of the Brexit case is to create all these fears.

You can see what happens here - they find the argument so difficult,

they're so terrified of losing on Thursday,

that they're going for the man and not the ball.

You see this poster he's produced

and the reference to "Breaking Point" -

there was a racial element to that.

I have challenged some of the basic assumptions of the Establishment.

Anti-immigrant and all that sort of stuff, gone on and on and on...

Even to talk about it, you get labelled as "anti-immigrant".

It is utterly preposterous. It may be OK for your class of people...

Bits of outrageous abuse, but then I'm Nigel Farage,

so I'd be disappointed if I didn't, really.

LAURA KUENSSBERG: Big ideas, big characters, big rows.

Now, time for the biggest debate.

Since when has the UK been interested in politics?

Suddenly, families are speaking to each other, basically.

They're rowing with each other.

I'm crossing my fingers, I really am.

If we win, that is the most amazing result.

I mean, it's going to be very, very close.

If we were not in the EU today...

TUC has looked at all the hard evidence...

I've been listening to businesses large and small...

Despite the hype and hope,

The Great Debate is in fact a reminder of the difference

between the earthy populism of Farage

and the Leave and Remain campaigns, distant voices,

shouting, not connecting.

The polls barely move.

But away from the public gaze, there is one all too human moment.

Right in front of me,

the man running Remain's campaign surprises Michael Gove.

Which country, of all those you've listed,

wants us to leave the European Union?

I think there are people... Which country?

There are people... No, which country?

Your poster on Turkey was no different

from Nigel Farage's poster on "Breaking Point".

They have the same sentiment - to scare people, to stir up fear,

that's what you were doing.

That is a Project Hate and that's what your campaign has been doing.

But you will be voting?

Oh, I'll be voting. Absolutely, absolutely.

We've even discussed my wife voting one way and me voting the other,

so we balance it out.

Polls deadlocked.

Whatever the public bravado,

in private, both sides are completely at sea

as to what's about to happen,

both now and after the vote.

I woke up at four o'clock this morning and I feel...

physically ill.

It's like being summoned to be beaten by the headmaster at school.

I feel that we are on the verge of a huge decision

and I don't know which way it's going to go

and I've always in my political life -

a sort of arrogant thing to say, really,

but for 33 years here and pretty much when I was a soldier too -

I pretty much sort of thought I knew how to deal with

what I was going to be faced with, but if this goes wrong for Britain,

I just don't know what the consequences are going to be

and I think they are very, very serious.

I think they're serious for Europe and I think they are very serious

politically for us and I just cannot see my way ahead.

For the whole of our dear, dear, wonderful country, I just want

to cross that finishing line on the right side of the ledger.

It's been very tight throughout.

If anything, I think there's a slight move towards Leave

in these last few days.

Now it just feels we're almost there

and, almost, there's a sense of being able to almost just touch

a real, historical change.

Out in Middle England, Leave's talisman is being deployed

in one last big hurrah.

I can see you're not dressed for work, Boris, I can see that.

Nice to see you. How are you? Nice to see you.

Thanks for coming out this morning. Thank you very much. How are you?

We trip over a rare, unguarded moment.

How are you doing? We're doing very well.

It's going to be absolutely fine.

Not here. Then they're back on script...

We're actually probably right in the centre of the country,

Ashby-de-la-Zouch, a beautiful market town.

We're going to a butcher's shop just round the corner.

..albeit to a rather hostile reaction.

Why would you, like, leap into the unknown?

So the whole of England you want to leave? It's not on, is it, Boris?

It's too scary, isn't it?

We're British and we take risks.

I think it'll be 52 Remain, 48 Leave.

I think there are a lot of Leave people who don't believe it.

I've always thought that Boris' wish was to lose by one

so that he could be the heir apparent

without having to have all the S-H-1-T of clearing up the mess.

That's always been my view of Boris.

By championing Leave,

he can be the great heir apparent for the future,

darling of the activists,

but actually it'd be quite good if he didn't win the referendum,

because there would be total chaos.

Independence day. Yeah, yeah. Absolutely. Good luck, everybody.

See you, folks. Remember Ashby-de-la-Zouch.

It's the same message in Mayfair.

Leave will lose by a 2% margin,

according to Crispin Odey's private polls.

The odds are - what? - 8/1 at this stage.

The hedge funder has commissioned them so he can make money,

get ahead of the market,

but the numbers prompt an unusually harsh verdict

on the campaign he's poured his money into.

You are quite low, actually, aren't you? Yeah, I am quite low. I am.

I sort of slightly thought maybe...

we are going to get one of those wonderful results of history,

but I think the administration wasn't very good and I'm afraid

everything else has taken its toll. We'll see tomorrow.

The administration of Vote Leave is not very good.

We've paid the price.

Anyway, we'll see, we'll see.

I'm a bit depressed.

MUSIC: Overture from The Marriage of Figaro by Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart

Decided which way to vote yet, Nigel? I'm thinking about it.

I've been undecided up until now, but...

Are you feeling confident, Prime Minister?

Morning, sir!

Sir!

BIG BEN STRIKES

History unfolds in a square mile,

the media running between a techno village

just outside the House of Commons,

a sort of digital Glastonbury,

and a cramped nightclub high in Millbank Tower,

host: Nigel Farage.

Ladies and gentlemen, good evening!

Good evening!

I want to say a massive, massive thanks to every single voter today

who had the guts to defy their party-political leaders,

to defy the Establishment,

to defy the elites and to defy the big boys.

I hope and pray that my sense of this tonight is wrong

and my sense of this is that the Government's registration scheme,

getting two million voters on,

the 48-hour extension, may be what tips the balance.

I hope I'm wrong.

I hope I'm made a fool of,

believing that to be the case,

but tonight, whatever the result,

is not one for recriminations but for a celebration that the landscape

of British politics in the course of the last few weeks

has changed and it's changed forever.

CHEERING

As dawn breaks, the booze runs out in Club Farage.

Nobody cares, media or revellers. Something's up.

THEY CHANT: Out! Out! Out! Out! Out! Out!

CHEERING

The same message is being heard 100 yards away.

They're saying 85% probability of a Leave win now.

How does that make you feel?

It makes me feel very good.

But I'm...

I'm waiting for the actual result.

CHEERING AND CHANTING

I just can't believe it.

I honestly can't believe it. Nigel!

APPLAUSE

SHOUTING AND APPLAUSE

Ladies and gentlemen...

..dare to dream...

..that the dawn is breaking

on an independent United Kingdom.

CHEERING

Let June 23rd go down in our history

as our independence day!

CHEERING

It's out. The numbers,

all the numbers say Britain is out of the EU.

Sky News and BBC as well.

Welcome.

You're happy, but what can you say when you see the market tumbling

and all sorts of insecurity ahead,

certainly on the economic front for the short term at least?

Well, there's bound to be some dislocation.

Well done. I'm very pleased. Well done.

Brilliant. Well done, well done.

It's beginning to sink in that we actually did it.

And, uh, after all the, um,

after all the effort and all the ups and downs

that you get in campaigns,

there's no up like actually winning it.

Of course, now we're all really awaiting a response

from the Prime Minister,

which I imagine we'll get very early this morning.

And will he stay, in reality? I think so.

Really? I hope so.

What a day. My God! This is a day to remember.

This is a morning to...

It's...it's...

You get so few of these moments

and you never really properly savour them and they're lost

and I'm going to savour this one.

There's that Italian expression, "il mattino ha l'oro in bocca,"

"the morning has gold in its mouth,"

and never has one felt so much that idea as this morning, really.

I discover Crispin has two reasons to be cheerful -

Brexit and bonds.

Overnight, he's made 220 million quid,

betting markets will collapse as his campaign succeeds.

I still think tomorrow they're going to take it all away from me,

cos I've lived for too long in the Euro world.

You might have been up all night,

but I'm feeling fresh as a daisy.

HE CHORTLES

PHONE RINGS

Good morning.

Not a great morning, indeed.

Darling, I'm just doing a quick interview. Can I call you in ten?

Yeah, all right, OK, bye.

Um... So, you were saying...

I was saying...

I'm having a bacon butty to console myself.

There'll be a moment of jubilation for the Leavers.

The problems I think are short-term economic...

..and people in a few weeks will not be happy to be paying 10% more

for their food and their fuel, but these things can pass.

The real problems I think are political.

We are entering into a period now

of deep instability and uncertainty

and potentially ultra-dysfunctional government.

The first thing we hear is Michael Gove says he's going to negotiate

with David Cameron about being in charge of the negotiations.

Well, these people have got to remember

they might have won a referendum, but they don't run the country.

What the hell is Boris thinking this morning?

I think he's...

MUMBLING AND BLUSTERING: "What do I do now? What do I do now?

"It'll be all right!"

If cold-eyed Crispin planned ahead, not so the politicians.

That lack of foresight that we found is catching up with the

Brexit plotters. Nobody's thought about what to do with the PM.

I'm 100% behind David Cameron staying as Prime Minister for...

For a period? ..through this process.

No, I think he needs to lead us through this whole process.

How can he do it when his heart's not in it?

He was the person who gave us the referendum in the first place.

But he didn't really think it would happen.

He gave the country the choice, by giving the country the choice

clearly he opened up to the idea they might decide one option or the other.

George Osborne, should he stay on?

I don't want today to be a day about changes... Tomorrow then?

No. This is a moment we need to... Should George Osborne stay on?

As such, I think the country requires fresh leadership to

take it in this direction.

I will do everything I can as Prime Minister to steady the ship

over the coming weeks and months,

but I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the....

What we've actually seen is that

politics is a high-risk game and when you reach for the stars

and miss, the first step is quite a painful one to drop.

By placing himself front and centre of the Remain campaign,

it became about the confidence in the Prime Minister and

unfortunately, in the game of politics, the Prime Minister lost.

I told you we were going to win and that the Prime Minister

would have to go and George Osborne will have to go as well.

That hasn't been announced yet, has it?

Do you want to bet on it? Yes. How much are you having?

The one prime minister who's socially liberal, built up,

you know, a reputation for tolerance around the party,

got an absolute majority, is going.

That is not good news.

He's going to be very difficult to replace.

We were talking to IDS, they were all surprised.

Well, clever aren't they, yippy dippy do-dah.

They basically finish him off and then complain when he's gone, didn't

think through the consequences of what they were suggesting.

Obviously, if the result was to leave,

it was a humiliation for the Prime Minister in anyone's book.

I'm quite upset by it, actually.

I think a good guy has been basically...binned,

in a very unfortunate way.

The ruthlessness is the thing that always shocks people, isn't it?

It's just...one day he is there and the next he's not.

You know, I actually think he was right to go as well.

David never thought he would ever have to hold a referendum.

And Boris never thought he was going to win it,

he never thought he was going to win it.

He just thought that it would be

the great populist horse that he should ride.

MUSIC: Anvil Chorus from Il trovatore by Giuseppe Verdi

If Brexit was won with Nigel Farage's help,

this war will be fought by Tories alone.

They don't seem very ready for it.

So what happens if Boris does eventually become the leader?

I have no idea. I have no idea.

I don't even know who the other candidates are.

I dread it, I dread it.

It'll be the third, fourth, third leadership election

I've taken part in and I've loathed every single one of them.

They're just sort of ghastly.

You cannot sit down in the tearoom without some twerp coming up...

Absolutely loathsome. Hideous.

In my experience, my campaigning for Cameron, during the Cameron

election, helping with the campaign,

practically everyone I spoke to assured everyone else they

were voting for them as well so you never... You know...

It's meant to be the most sophisticated electorate in Britain,

it's about the least sophisticated electorate I've ever met in my life.

Because of the patronage point of view,

a lot of people won't commit openly because they'll want to be on

the winning side for obvious career-enhancing reasons.

I've already come out and said we're going to back Boris. Bridgen backs Boris.

And that should secure victory? I would have thought so.

Boris is not possibly the perfect candidate.

There isn't a perfect candidate but Boris is a winner.

He's a proven winner.

Who are you backing for new leader? Boris.

I think Boris won the referendum for Brexit.

I think without him and Michael Gove and indeed Gisela Stuart,

it would have been very very difficult for Brexit to win.

Boris is an extraordinarily capable politician and I think it would be

absurd to have somebody running the re-negotiation who supported Remain.

And you, who are you going for?

I'm going for Theresa, 100 %.

It's a time when you need the reliable bank manager really.

You know, we don't want Flash Harry fireworks.

We need steadiness and experience and really wrestle with what

are now economic, political and constitutional crises. Yes.

All at once. Why not Boris?

Jacob has come out for him, Nick Soames has come out for him.

Well, you know,

Etonians are closer than the masons when it comes to these things.

It's battle by press launch, but not a carefully choreographed campaign.

They're all called at a moment's notice

as candidate after candidate lurches into the spotlight.

My pitch is very simple, I'm Theresa May and I think

I'm the best person to be prime minister of this country.

As we're setting up,

the first sign that all may not be well with Team BoJo.

A muttered insistence the candidate won't be taking questions.

CHEERING

Good morning, everybody. Thank you very much.

This is our chance to think globally again, to lift our eyes to the

horizon, that is the agenda for the next prime minister of this country.

But I must tell you, that person cannot be me.

So, a little surprised?

Yep. I mean...

There's clearly been a monumental bust up between Michael Gove

and Boris Johnson.

I've just had five colleagues from the Boris campaign in my garden

absolutely spitting feathers and, you know,

not at Boris,

at Michael Gove.

JOURNALISTS SHOUT

MUSIC: Brindisi from La Traviata by Giuseppe Verdi

Have a good morning.

The irony of course that former partner has sabotaged former partner.

I discover the Michael Gove is backed by a cabal of yes, Etonians.

I've always wanted Michael Gove

to stand for the leadership of the party.

I've encouraged him to do this,

but I'd announced that I would support Boris, but then he announced

he was pulling out and so I was free to back Michael.

Has Michael Gove not completely torpedoed himself?

He certainly damaged himself.

In the rear-view mirror of his car,

there's a lot of bodies mounting up, aren't there?

It's really difficult when someone's said for years and years

and years, on TV cameras, "I'm not up to the job,

"I don't want the job, I couldn't do the job and I'll tell you why

"I couldn't and in fact if you asked me, I will write in my own blood on parchment,

"I do no want to be prime minister, and will not stand," and then to change your mind.

It's just a bit difficult.

CLAMOURING AND CAMERAS CLICKING

'I imagine that the reason for Michael Gove's

'candidacy and Boris Johnson pulling out must be pretty momentous.'

I mean we're all hearing bits and pieces.

We're not that far from the Palace of Westminster,

but we might as well be another side of the Moon for all that

we're getting information here,

so the public are feeling a bit bruised.

Both sides are feeling a little bit battle weary.

We've now got an uncertain leadership campaign.

You know, it's an ordinary day in politics.

GENERAL CHATTER

Despite being forced to resign from the Cabinet

a couple of years back, Liam is a candidate too,

though he can only muster one MP to support him openly.

Have you seriously got enough support to win this?

Well, we'll find out next week.

If someone had told me this morning that Michael Gove would be

standing and Boris Johnson would have ruled himself out,

I'm not sure I would have believed them, although in the past week

I'm beginning to believe anything at all.

In the free for all, one candidacy is launched on the back of

a successful television debate performance.

Andrea Leadsom is the stalking horse of the hardline Brexiteers

and I'm hearing of Farage himself.

Shut out from the contest,

Nigel wants a standard bearer for his politics, his victory.

It was a big decision to put myself forward to lead our country,

one that was driven by my absolute conviction that...

What did you say to her to swing her to do this?

I said your country needs you. We need clarity.

We need leadership and we need somebody that voted to leave

but who represents a generational shift.

Such is the atmosphere of blind panic, that old romcom favourite,

the unfortunate midnight text now makes an appearance.

"I respect the fact that you want Theresa May to be prime minister,

"it's overwhelmingly likely that she will be and if she does,

"I will sleep easily at night.

"Michael doesn't mind spending two months

"taking a good thrashing from Theresa,

"if that's what it takes

"to put the party's interests and the national interest.

"Surely we must all work together to stop AL?"

Where AL is Andrea Leadsom.

That was a text sent to known May supporters asking them basically

to tactically vote for Gove so that it's Gove-May in the final.

The text backfires.

There's a stormy Parliamentary meeting, all cameras banned,

Gove is called a liar to his face. So it's Theresa versus Andrea.

I'm delighted to have won so much support from my colleagues.

I've won votes from Conservative MPs from across the party...

OPERA DROWNS OUT SPEECH

There's Michael Gove!

Why have you lost, Mr Gove? Why have you come third?

Was it the text from Mr Boles? Did that backfire?

I'm hugely grateful to all those Members of Parliament who

supported my candidacy.

I was really fortunate to have some of the brightest and the best

in the Parliamentary Party on my side and I'm naturally

disappointed that I haven't been able to make it through to

the final round of this leadership contest.

JOURNALISTS SHOUT

Do you regret what you did? Is that a yes?

That's not an end to skulduggery.

There's another text from the frustrated Faragistas.

There's a bit of an issue brewing which is the Arron Banks list

is being used to try and get people to join Conservative Associations

in what is clearly a takeover attempt.

We've had an e-mail bombardment which is trying to make it

look as though Conservatives are only for Leadsom.

So we have a sort of infiltration attack going on even as we speak.

SHE LAUGHS

What is going on?

Well, I think I told you a couple of months ago this is major

realignment of political fault lines. Does this not surprise you?

I mean on a personal level?

Yes, it does.

In a sense, they won a victory and threw it away.

You've just achieved something quite extraordinary,

you've achieved it against the odds

and I'm not sure whether they deliberately threw it away.

..I'm therefore withdrawing from the leadership election.

Andrea implodes.

One unfortunate interview about motherhood

and widespread distaste for the Leave text, and it's Theresa.

JOURNALISTS SHOUT

Welcome to Downing Street where there have been

a great deal of comings and goings today.

For all the talk of revenge in the press, on the ground

I feel a palpable sense of the family dusting itself down,

of the incredible elasticity of the modern politician.

There's a great line of Churchill's who said he'd often had to

eat his own words and found it to be a very good diet.

I accept I've had to eat my own words on all the previous leaders

and I'm a complete convert to Mrs May.

CHANTING

What do we want? Brexit. When do we want it? Now!

Privately, the PM decides that the combatants in the family row

should be rewarded with the task of sorting it out.

Lo and behold, I'm a Foreign Minister.

So I'm a Minister here at the Foreign Office and frankly,

it could not be more interesting and more exciting.

It's my sort of spiritual home in many ways,

and I'm thrilled to be here.

..that way, thank you.

But there is a man in charge of this great department who you

campaigned against! We've been long-standing friends.

We get on crackingly well.

There's never a dull moment, but, you know,

I think we complement each other.

To borrow a phrase, toujours plus etroit.

The French Foreign Minister in fact has sent me a charming letter

just a couple of hours ago

saying how much he looked forward to working together.

Well, I'm now Secretary of State for International Trade in the

new department that's set up to prepare Britain for

its trading environment after we've left the European Union

and the negotiations for actually extricating ourselves from

the European Union have gone to David Davis' department.

I'm not particularly worried

that any of them are not going to do very well at their jobs,

it's just how it's going to work that worries me.

You know, three huge egos.

David Davis, Liam Fox and Boris is going to be

a very difficult operation in my view to keep on track and it's

going to be the iron fist of the Prime Minister that will do that.

So often people go for something that they don't really

believe in the consequences of what they're saying and I think,

you've not only got to believe in those consequences,

you've got to have thought about them actually and that's

what's frightening about it, is just how little thought

there has really been to what we're going to do now.

What does the future hold?

My answer is I don't really mind because I've, in a very small way,

helped achieve the very thing that I came into politics largely to do

which was to give Britain its freedom back

outside the European Union.

We have to make our way in the great global world, and that's what

these boys are going to be negotiating for us.

And if they don't,

well, what my father used to call Fouquet in Le Touquet.

I bet you don't broadcast that.

One of the questions that is being asked is what am I going to do?

Amidst the madness, the man who brought it all about stood down -

almost unnoticed.

During the referendum campaign, I said I want my country back.

What I'm saying today is I want my life back and it begins right now.

Thank you.

But is it really likely that

having helped engineer this very British coup that he'll walk away?

If, what I thought,

if they were to betray the wishes of the biggest democratic exercise

in the history of this nation,

then I think if you feel since June 23 you've seen political change in

this country, if they betray those people, you ain't seen nothing yet.

MUSIC: Casta Diva from Norma by Vincenzo Bellini