EU Referendum Debate - NI Decides

Hello there. Welcome to the BBC and our live TV debate on the EU

referendum from Northern Ireland. Decision day is a week tomorrow. The

question do you want to remain? Do you want the UK to remain in the

European Union or do you want to leave? We have been discussing this

for weeks now. A man who will help us with the facts and figures on

either side of it is our economics and Business Editor, John Campbell.

A lot to discuss, isn't there? There is. Passionate opinions on all

sides. Sometimes the facts are hard to come by. As much as possible

tonight I want to concentrate on bringing you the facts. They will

try to do that. This debate has been raging right throughout the UK. The

United States wants a strong United Kingdom as a partner. The United

Kingdom is at its best when it's helping to lead a strong Europe. I

want a better deal for the people of this country. To save them money and

to take back control. The EU has changed so much since people voted

way back in 1975. It is now, for me, about whether we want to control our

own country. The plain uncomfortable truth is, that the awe unity of the

United Kingdom itself is on the ballot paper. It's very well to talk

about constitutional uncertainty in the United Kingdom when we are

handing away our sovereignty to Brussels all the time. If you vote

to leave the EU the country will be poorer and the families in the

country will be poorer. Even if sterling were to fall a few

percentage points after Brexit, so what? It would be bad for our

farming community and our voluntary sector, detrimental to relationships

in the island of Ireland. There's no saving from leaving the EU there's a

cost. Don't leave it. It will be a patriotic renewal. Well, let's look

at our panel tonight in the Leave corner, DUP MP, Sammy Wilson,

Conservative MP, Daniel Hannan. From the Remain side, SDLP MP, Claire

Hanna and the former Downing Street Director of Communications, Alistair

Campbell. We will get into the audience straightaway. Mervyn. Good

evening. Research indicates that Northern Ireland exports to the EU

have almost halved over the course of the last 10 years whilst exports

to the rest of the world have increased by more than 40% to 70er %

of our exports. In these circumstances, would Northern

Ireland not do better voting to leave the EU and seek our fortunes

outside? One for you straightaway, Claire Hanna.

APPLAUSE. The fact is we do trade. We trade with many people we don't

just trade to Europe. It's a fundamental part, particularly for

the likes of our food sector. We are not looking to ship out millions of

product. We are selling to high quality buyers. That is exactly what

Europe provides. It's the most stable market in the world. 500

million people we do it without tariffs. Invest NI is about selling

our wares around the world. We are not just selling in the EU. It's a

huge economic gamble a leap in the dark It's not an economic gamble.

The figures show the positive side of leaving the EU. First of all, our

trade is more being orientated towards the rest of the world. That

is where the growing economies are unvettered by the economic

restrictions in the EU. Secondly, we are curtailed in developing those

relationships if we want trade agreements with other parts of the

world the growing parts of the world, the world sympathetic to us

because of common language and law - Take years to negotiate. We don't

negotiate. He When we joined the EU the countries that now make it up

with 36% of the world economy, now it's 17% of the economy. We need to

lift our eyes to more distant horizons. I was here last week at

the Harbour Office, those were people with a a global outlook -

There were manufacturers. Nothing to worry about then, Alastair Campbell?

It's great we can trade with India and with China and with Japan and

all these other countries, the question is on the ballot paper is -

are we better off in or outside the European Union? The reality is that

Northern Ireland, I think, is disproportionately will be

disproportionately adversely affected if we leave the European

Union partly because of the extra funding that comes to Northern

Ireland from the European Union, but also because of the importance of

relations with the Republic of Ireland which of course is an

important part of the European Union. I think this idea - it's a

myth we will be able to create these great new trade agreements. Hang on.

Over the last 10 years the Chinese economy has doubled in size - It's

the same size it was 10 years ago. Hold on. One at a time. It there are

growth areas and things will - I was at the same debate. Manufacturer

after manufacturer stood up and said they knew how difficult it would be

if they left because, particularly if you are producing stuff, you

don't necessarily want to ship it. There are costs to put it to China

and New Zealand and other places like that. It's not like with like.

I will let you come back Sammy. I promise after we hear from John

Campbell with the facts and figures behind this. Northern Ireland's

contribution to the EU budget last year was an estimated ?375 million.

In terms of what comes back, subsidies for farming and fishing

alongside what are called structural funds worth ?230 million. Peace and

cross-border funds added ?50 million. We will stop getting much

of that money after 2020. There are science, education and research

funds. They are at least ?10 million a year. At a local level we are

still beneficiaries of the EU or, at the very least, break even. The

Leave side say in the result of a Brexit the UK Government could

afford to replace those EU funds and add more even. The Remain side say

that they may not choose to spend it here. The economically important

aspect of the EU is the single market. Companies can sell their

goods and services right across the EU without tariffs, quotas or other

restrictions. That's important for Northern Ireland. 60% of our exports

go to the EU. With the most recent annual figures show manufacturing

exports to the EU down by 4%. Non-EU trade up by 28%. What happens to

that trade will depend on what sort of deal the UK could get with the EU

after a Brexit. The Leave side say any deal with allow businesses to

shrug off EU red tape. The Remain side point out the UK is one of the

least regulated major economies. Have you, Sammy Wilson, got a

coherent vision for trade with the rest of the EU post-Brexit? I have.

Spell it out. If we look at the figures John quoted there. First of

all, we are now no longer net recipients of money from the EU. His

figures would indicate that - Northern Ireland? His figures would

indicate that this year we are net recipients of ?6 million. The peace

money will disappear by 2020. The farming subsidies fell last year by

?120 million. That is why we have you here. Are we net recipients in

Northern Ireland? As far as I'm concerned we are net recipients at

the moment. APPLAUSE.

. John, on the BBC website you accept that by 2020 farming

subsidies will have fallen further. The peace money will have

disappeared. That our contributions to the EU will go up and, therefore,

by 2020 we will be net contributors to the EU. There are other things I

didn't include, road fundings. So there are - I think that was quite a

conservative view I gave of how we are net recipients. You can't argue

we aren't - Not a conservative view, John. It's an an inaccurate view.

You based that ?374 million figure on a British contribution of ?12.9

billion to the EU it's ?18 billion. Talking about accurate and

inaccurate views. Are you standing over the ?350 million a week

Vlastaed across a bus that you claim we are sending out. You claim we are

sending out - That is the gross amount, some returned in the rebate

and spent here. Look at the bus. Where does it say "gross" on that

bus? Maybe it's's gross in a different way, I don't know. Where

does it say? What is the difference between gross and net salary. What

is basic rate income tax. Do you say it's 20p in the ?1. Do you say, it's

zero because we get it all back in-roads, schools and hospitals?

It's normal in public life we quote the gross figure, which is what you

are actually paying. Hold on. Sit there and tell me we send out ?350

million a week? We don't physically ship the money over. That appears in

your bank account as debited some is returned. It doesn't. No it,

doesn't. It's often - No, it doesn't. On buying loyalty of these

quangos you have been quoting. ?350 million a week - ?357 million. Even

before you get to net and gross, ?276 spent because the rebate is

taken out before we send the money. It's debited then returned. Can I

make a point here. This is not like we are paying in money and getting

nothing back. Our membership of the European Union gives us enormous

economic benefits. The idea that this is some kind of cheque we have

to pay out. The other line, I heard you in the preample telling the

audience not to call any of us liars, that ?350 million on the bus

is a straight-forward lie. What's more it's also a lie...

APPLAUSE That comes from Her Majesty's

Treasury, the figures for EU finances for 2015. It's not a figure

made up by Dan or me or by the Brexit campaign. That is an official

Government figure whether you like it or not. Without context

whatsoever It. It can't be spent on the National Health Service. The

idea that Daniel Hannan, who wants to privatise the National Health

Service, gives a damn about investing more in the National

Health Service, forget it. We get control back. If we leave the

European Union, farming and fishing, the two biggest components John

mentioned, will be devolved directly to Stormont. The question is do we

trust our own representatives to run these things - It's playing fast and

loose with statistics. It's the price of everything and the value of

nothing there. Is a lot more comes from the European Union. It's not

paying fast and loose are with statistics it's a Government figure.

They all have one thing in common, the impact will be big and bad.

Presume we come out of Europe. If there is a 1% drop in GDP it would

wipe out the saving. The Conservatives will spend money on

anything except here. Daniel Hannan who said that the NHS was a 60 year

mistake is not the person who I think will spend it on our public

services. We are handing this over to -

APPLAUSE This is a project of the hard right.

The hard left are joining in as well. They have different views. One

will be disappointed. I think it's the hard left. One person who will

lose his job, definitely, if we leave is he m me. I will lose a

well-paid job. I would not be inviting people to fire me if I'm

not confident it would be in the economic interests of the country as

a whole and there would be alternative employment for newly

unemployed MEPS. You are a smart, educated man and golden apples in

the world and you make jokes about being made redundant - I'm not a

real person? You can joke but other people don't have a choice.

Go-ahead. Daniel Hannan hit the nail in the head. Do we trust our

politicians to deal with this after we leave the European Union the

answer across the board is of course we don't. Do we trust Sammy Wilson

the ex-Finance Minister to deal with our revenue after we leave the

European Union. I don't think so? The entire campaign has come down to

an issue of trust. The You have a finance minister here

anyway. Do you trust unelected bureaucrats and politicians? That is

the argument for Remain. The point I make is you would rather have... The

point I'm making is this campaign has come down to a question of

trust.. We just believe campaign and take a step into the unknown, or

trust the Remain campaign? We showed you the bus slogan, sending over 350

million a year. They didn't tell you on the bus can I have written the

figures, we get 88 million of it back before sending a penny out,

88,000,002 farmers forced up 27 million more on research, none of

that is on the bus. 9 million to the fisheries. And we get a lot back in

private rebates. Enough to wipe out the entire austerities programme. 42

million gross, 85 million in the 2010-2015 Parliament, enough to wipe

out the whole of the cuts programme. Just to clear up finally the number

on the bus. We will go to Sir Andrew Dillon at, the chair of the UK stats

authority, the man with the numbers. He says the continued use of the

gross figure, three had and 50 million in the context implied as a

net figure is misleading and undermines trust in official

statistics, that's not me, the head of the UK stats authority. The UK is

a net contributor to the EU budget, nobody is arguing with that, so why

in Bent this figure which Sir Andrew Dillon at says is wrong. For the

same reason why it if somebody asks what your council tax is, you say

what it is. To be fair to Daniel Hannan, in his heart he probably

doesn't want to justify it but he's part of the campaign and feels he

has to. Boris Johnson made account deleted decision to lead the

campaign, partly because he has his eyes on being the next leader of the

Conservatives because David Cameron will go. I don't enjoy talking about

the 350 million but he loves it when talking about the tactics of the

campaign because it means we're not talking about the substance, better

off in or out? If we got back to that we could hopefully put a bit

more analysis in. The substance to the economy is that regardless of

whether it is a net or a gross figure, we do make a huge

contribution every year to the EU. We lose out on... We lose... We lose

out on trading with other parts of the world, Switzerland has trade

agreements with five times more than the EU has with growing parts of the

world, Chile has agreements with ten times more than the EU. And then we

are burdened with, and billions of pounds of red tape stifling small

industry... Let me answer the question. Claire Hanna, your party

used to tell us that Northern Ireland should be in the single

currency, didn't you? The Eurozone, you are wrong, weren't you? There

were a number of tests but this isn't about the euro. Let's comeback

to... I'm coming back to this. That is not the question. I put the

questions on the table. APPLAUSE

Here is the question on the table tonight. Is it on the ballot paper?

Here is what the SDLP said... You don't really want me to show this,

do you? Let's have a look at this. The SDLP has long been committed to

the EU and believes that Northern Ireland increasingly loses out the

longer we remain outside the Eurozone. OK, well, for a start...

APPLAUSE 14 years ago was a very long time in

economic times. Before a number of global shocks. This isn't about

joining the euro... Did your party make a mistake? I need to come back

on a couple of things. Sorry, we will move on after we deal with

this. Was that a complete misjudgement by your party? It was

of a different time... You are saying exactly the same thing now.

Not just you guys, but the people who are now telling us that if we

are outside the EU there will be disinvestment, slow growth and

unemployment, said exactly the same thing. It wasn't just that those

things didn't happen to us... It's just not that being outside the

euro... I'm going to come back. See this thing about red tape. I don't

want to have lead paint on my children's toys, these are some of

the regulations that Europe has brought in. You talk about weaker

trade and growth with South Korea has grown, as if they'd like an

increase with their biggest company or their smallest customer. The fact

of the matter is that many of those who are arguing now that we should

stay in the European Union, many of those who you have cited and

Alastair Campbell will site, got it wrong about the exchange rate

mechanism and the Eurozone and they are now using it employing the same

arguments about staying in the EU -- cite. If you want to talk about slow

learners, Sammy, there are a lot of things that could have dawned on you

many years ago if you want to talk about slow learners. Colin, you are

a businessman and on the Remain side, tell us why? Because where I'm

based in Newry there is project fear where we are, the implications for

Brexit. Our economy has been transformed because the border has

disappeared as a practical barrier to trade and movement of people. I

spoke to Boris Johnson in a partisan speech by Theresa Villiers when she

hosted him, and asked him the question is, will there be a hard

border on the island of Ireland and he couldn't answer. What was the

answer? The answer is there will be. If it is not on the island of

Ireland it will be on the island of Britain. We are going to talk about

the border later in the programme. There is no doubt that Ireland and

the UK want to continue with the Common travel area and work closely

together. I think everybody here has got a very dim view of the EU if

they think the EU will introduce sanctions against the UK that will

destroy the economy in southern Ireland. I don't believe that will

happen and if the people in southern island think that will happen they

will be forced to leave the United Kingdom to keep their economy

afloat. Even the unions are split on this, right? The union is

representative and as public opinion has split the unions have a

difference of opinion. I wouldn't say we are divided. Europe is not

perfect, we're not going to say it is perfect. It is anything but

perfect and it hasn't delivered everything we wanted. What is your

top line for remaining in in terms of the economy? For jobs, workers'

rights and peace in Northern Ireland. You are from another union.

The hard left, or socialist as we would call it, we would take a

different opinion. Our measure of the economic success or failure of

the European Union is the country we live in because we are in the

European Union and frankly it is a disaster at the moment economically,

the European Union is a financial disaster and an economic disaster.

APPLAUSE If I could finish my point. Quickly.

The public doesn't believe a word coming out of either campaign, the

Remain or the Brexit campaign and that is a real problem. The last

thing I would say, Stephen, is there is a huge issue coming down the

tracks, the TTIP negotiation, which will mean the demolition of our

public services and nobody is addressing that issue. I just want

to make a point. If you look at what has happened in terms of the vanity

project that the EU elite are pursuing, they've condemned the

millions of young people in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy to

unemployment. We are moving on... We are going to talk about immigration

next. Is John Campbell again. One of the fundamental principles of

EU membership is that all EU citizens should have freedom of

movement and as a result more than 3 million people from elsewhere in the

EU are living in the UK. The last sentence from 2011 recorded 83,000

people from elsewhere in the EU living here. 37,000 of the group

were from the Republic. The vast majority of EU citizens say they are

here to work and the figures bear that out. In 2015 people from EU

countries in the UK had a 78% implement rate compared to a 73%

rate among UK born people. Overall, the evidence suggests the economic

impacts of EU migration are relatively small and mostly

positive. For example, local employers have found it useful to be

able to recruit more widely and fill skills gaps. At there is also some

evidence which shows higher migration puts downward pressure on

the wages of the least skilled workers. If the UK leaves it would

be able to end the freedom of movement, but that would come at a

price. It would mean that the UK would be highly unlikely to have

access to this market on anything like the terms it has now. For

example, Norway is not in the EU but still accepts freedom of movement as

the price of market access. Alastair Campbell, immigration is

the weak point in your campaign, isn't it? Look, I think you are

talking in this campaign about people like me and Claire, who

decided on one side and Daniel Im Sammy who decided on the other and

millions of people in the middle who will decide fourballs also serve

reasons, and immigration is certainly a factor within the

debate. I think that one of the reasons why the Leave campaign are

really hammering the issue of migration as heavily as they can is

because they know they have lost the economic argument. However, just

addressing the issue of immigration, it's interesting, I saw Nicola

Sturgeon and it is weird in this debate how we end up quoting

favourably people normally on the opposite sides, but Nicola Sturgeon

made a very good point, I thought. We keep going on about immigrants,

these migrants who come over and take our jobs and so forth. The

British people that we have working in the European union countries, we

call them expats and there are 2.2 million. We are back here to the

subject of the Single Market. Stephen, you quoted at Clare

something the SDLP said a while back. I'd like to quote something

that Daniel Hannan said just a year ago. He said: the idea is being

absurdly propagated that withdrawing from the political institutions of

the EU means withdrawing from the Single Market. No one in Brussels is

suggesting such a thing and nor is any British Eurosceptic suggesting

such a thing and that is exact what the Leave campaign are suggesting.

Do you want to respond, Daniel Hannan? In every

Nantes -- non-European Union country. We would be uniquely

excluded from market access on the same terms that Guernsey and

Macedonia, Monaco and Montenegro and any other non-European Union state

has. You don't know that with any certainty. It is or was better to go

with what you can observe and if you can see that every other country

with the sole exception of Belarus in Europe is part of the common

market why would we be the only ones uniquely penalised, especially when

we are big net purchasers of EU goods? On the day we left we would

become their civil biggest market. -- single biggest market. It is

extraordinary, you have made an entire career out of saying that

this European Union thing and this Commission thing and all of these

European countries are determined to do Britain down. But for some reason

the minute that we pull out they are going to roll over and have their

tummies tickled and do everything we ask them to do. They will act on

self-interest, Alastair and since they export to us 290 million euros

worth of goods and services every year and we export 220 back to them

they have a trade surplus with us, that 6.5 million people are

dependent on jobs for selling goods into the United Kingdom, they will

not cut off their nose despite their face, they need us. Let me come into

the audience, the man with glasses. Asked Campbell talks about making a

career, he's made a career of giving people meaningless rhetoric over

years and years, it is not grounded in any fact, it is just fantasy. Do

you have a point to make? Why don't you make it? Last year we had 24,000

farms registered in Northern Ireland and 15 years ago we had 32,000, OK?

What will you do when you lose subsidies for the farmers? We will

look at farming later in the programme. We are talking about

people losing their jobs. People who have worked for Cadbury who lost the

jobs when the factory moved to Poland with EU Grant Murray. People

who lost their jobs to Turkey with EU Grant Murray making the Ford

transit -- grant money. Go-ahead. Can I just say to the Leave, Daniel

and Sammy, one of the most prized institutions in this country is the

NHS and that relies on foreign nationals coming in to work, our

nurses and our doctors. OK? Our tourist industry relies on foreign

nationals. Can you honestly tell me that if we leave the European Union

you are going to find those doctors and those nurses, those cleaners...

No, listen, where will you find them? The important thing about the

immigration policy is if we were to leave the EU we would then have

control over immigration policy, we would decide what skills shortage

there was. Spell out what you want, more or less? It depends on the

needs of the economy. How much would that cost? It depends on the needs

of the economy. If you have a shortage of doctors, if you have a

shortage of people with certain skills, of course you would seek

them from outside. The important thing is this: you would not have

the uncontrolled immigration that we have at present which is putting

pressure on the health service, housing, education.

I will let you come back in one second. Where are you going to get

them from, Sammy. The doctors we have here and train in Northern

Ireland are going to Australia. They are going to China. They are going

to America. The nurses that we have here trained here, going abroad. You

are not going to get the nurses who are trained here staying and you're

not going to get them coming from - OK. Listen to his reply. From the

Philippines. Exclude those people who come from Europe. Let him reply

to you. Bring people from even further afield. Go on. Madness. You

would do the same as they do in Australia. You would look and see

where the skill shortages. Do you want to hear the answer? Do

you want to hear the answer? Will you let Sammy reply, sir? You needed

to broaden your horizons. Let him reply. Then you can come back. Do

the same as they do in other countries where they operate a

points system. You look and see what skill shortages they have. People

apply to come into the are you country. Awarded points on the other

hand the basis of that, they are accepted into the country as

immigrants because you know you've got jobs for them. You know you have

the skill shortages and you marry your immigration policy with the

needs of your economy. That makes sense.

APPLAUSE With this great Australian model you

are talking about, Sammy, hasn't immigration gone up? Doubled.

Australia had skill shortages. It's gone up. If there were skill

shortages, yes, you would. What we should be doing here - if we have

shortages of nurses we train our own nurses. Finance we have shortages of

doctors we train our own people to be doctors. If we can't fill the

gaps we bring them from outside. Go on. Migration is market sensitive.

People come where the job opportunities are. The same way as

people from all over this island for centuries have gone to other places

for jobs. Migration is good for our economy. That is something you have

been trying to block. In Northern Ireland 1.2 billion added in. Most

of the workers coming in are young, strong people who pay in. You tell

us people who have lost their jobs have had - Let me speak. They pay in

taxation far more more they No point shout use. Ing. We can't hear you.

We will bring a mic and you can speak. You do not want an economy

based on labour shortages. No-one will invest if people aren't there

to fill the jobs. People are shouting about the rights of

low-paid workers. These guys won't be the one to defend it. If they

were serious about protecting low-paid workers they could

legislate on zero-hours. We are going into the audience now. Thank

you. In November last year David Cameron was interviewed on TV and he

was asked what would happen if we left the EU. In that interview David

Cameron said absolutely nothing. He said nothing would happen to the

economy that we would thrive. Entrepreneurs would start - I have

never read David Cameron saying that. It was on the TV. Without

question as recently as February he was threatening to walk out over

what we now see was unbelievable tweak to our welfare rules. The idea

it would be a bomb under the economy is a fantasy. No matter what happens

in this referendum, whether we stay or leave, the UK Government will

never ever be the same again. On the point of migration. An important

point to make. It doesn't affect everybody equally. It may be good

for the whole economy overall, but it's experienced differently. There

are people who will have their wages depressed. Bank of England research

that suggests a small downward pressure on the lowest skill people

in the service sector. The impact of migration, while it's good on ample,

is not evenly distributed across all. We Jobs is important. There is

a lot more we haven't discussed yet. For example, the pressure on public

services in this country. It's a topic within the immigration debate

that is absolutely massive. The people born and bred in this

country, they want to be able to find, Claire, a place for their

children in school. They want to be able to walk into the NHS and feel

like the NHS can cope with the demand that the population of this

country has. That is a doe Metsic policy consideration that can be

addressed by the Government. We have a Conservative austerity Government

that isn't putting the money into public services. That is not the

responsibility of the European Union. You The same pressures on

education, on health, on housing when the Labour Government was in

power. When the Labour Government was spending money hand over fist

much you had the same pressures mostly in working-class areas that

is where the impact of uncontrolled immigration was felt most strongly.

APPLAUSE Reply to that? If I heard Sammy

right he was saying we let uncontrolled immigration. That led

to these massive pressures on public services. I don't deny in a lot of

communities people have felt those pressures. However, we, as Claire

said earlier, we have always needed, right throughout history, we have

needed immigrants at certain stages of economic development to come in

and do the jobs, for example, 100,000 people in the UK. European

immigrants working in our health and social and care system. Doing the

jobs - Some people in certain areases of the United Kingdom feel

that there is too much pressure because of immigration on local

services and their local born kids and they themselves can't access

them any more? I accept people feel that in some places. However we go

back to the point. There's no point shouting I can't see you or hear

you. You need to not shout. There is no point. You are making a fool of

yourself you are shouting to yourself, we can't hear you. Wait

until we get a mic to you we will come to you. I promise. He is

talking about the austerity government. I will repeat this. In

the whole of the last parliament the austerity cuts put together saved

?36 billion. During the lifetime of that parliament our gross

contribution to the EU was ?85 billion. Our net contribution is ?42

billion. If we use that lower figure that would have... And sunk our

economy. I want to keep a promise tonight. Who was the guy shouting? I

want to put a mic to you. Sir, go-ahead. It's on you now. We can

hear you. OK. Our grandfathers and their grandfathers worked their

butts off to build up and died early as a result of it, apart from dying

in the battlefield, to build up the infrastructure of this country and

to protect our culture. These people are now suggesting that we can have

all these foreigners coming in who are not prepared in very many

circumstances to adopt our culture. We are being derrogatory towards our

forbearers. APPLAUSE.

Go-ahead. Respond to him. We have enough problems in Northern Ireland

deciding what our own culture is. We can't explain to other people not

adapting when we can't adapt to our own. We will move on. The Northern

Ireland dimension. It featured in the referendum campaign a bit.

Claims and counter claims about what would happen to the Irish border.

John will set out the issues. Currently people can move freely

between Northern Ireland, the republic and the re The rest UK due

to the common travel area. It's a informal arrangement which predates

the creation of the EU. Both the UK and Irish governments would push to

see it continue if the UK left the EU. We can't be certain it will.

Legal experts say it could only continue with with the agreement of

other EU countries. If there is no agreement, we could see a harder

border or more checks travelling to Great Britain from any part of this

island witch could see the return of customs post. If a post-Brexit trade

deal could mean that tariffs would have to be in force. It happens in

Norway and Sweden. There is a Brexit could lead to another referendum in

Scotland. The SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon, has said a vote to leave

the EU against Scotland's wishes would almost certainly trigger an

independence referendum. That shows you the pressure these politicians

are putting. A vote for Breakfast, because I think about food all the

time. Tom Kelly. On the border. Important issue here in Northern

Ireland. We have seen Tony Blair, no less, John Major coming over and

warning us that this border issue it could risk the peace process, no

less. I don't need Tony Blair or John Major to warn me about that, I

live on the border. I have lived there for the past 50 years of my

life. As someone who knows until the single market went leaving aside all

the historical stuff about common travel area and all of that, which

is nonsense, I used to go to the dogs on a Friday night and Saturday

night from Newry much you had to make sure that you didn't get in

time with the lorries to cross during the cost opes posts at

Dundalk. The reality for people who didn't go to the border during the

past 50 years there was a border until the single market. It will

come back. That's the biggest fear. We are actually reliant, our

businesses, I feel I'm on another planet thech are talking abouts

businesses that don't exist. The businesses here in Northern Ireland,

a 57% trade with the Republic of Ireland. They need to export and

they need to be tariff-free. Let us talk about here and stop talking

about East Anglia. We want Northern Ireland first.

APPLAUSE The common travel area has been in existence since partition.

There have been hiccups during the war and Troubles. It works and both

governments want it. As recently as 2011 it was ratified by both

governments. Go to the Irish government website - That's because

- You will see how much it's welcomed by the - They are inside

the EUU. Dan made the point we have the internet. It's not that

difficult to move goods across borders. Move goods from Turkey to

Greece. - Go on. Can one of these Leave people explain to me how you

can have this, bring back control of the borders, so you know everything

is coming in without having border control? Yes, I would like to.

Daniel Hannan is nearly jumping off his seat to tell you. Rather than

listening to hypothesis or promises. There is a common travel area that

includes - Because we are in the European Union. It includes the Isle

of Man not in the EU. Also McCluskie the Channel Islands not in the EU.

As observable fact you can have a travel area with EU and non-EU

areas. You have to find either a party in Dublin or Westminster that

is proposing such a thing. One second. In which case, your entire

case falls down. Let us say I'm one of these terrible Polish builders

that wants to come over here and undercut builders in London. All

I've got to do, if we the UK come out of the European Union, get out

of a plane from Warsaw to Dublin. Part of the single market, Dublin

will be part of the single market. Get up to this border. You tell me

there is no border controls I come into the United Kingdom. You You

could go to Isle of Man or Heathrow. You don't need visas to fly here. He

is right, is he not... Hold on. What are you are you suggesting we stop

people travelling. How you are are you stopping a situation that

Alistair Campbell suggested? How does the common travel area operate

at the moment? We vote in the same European Union, for heavens sake.

The Republic of Ireland did not sign up to the free travel area. It

stayed out of the Schengen Arrangement. The checks take place

at Irish ports. People come into Ireland and are free to move - OK.

They have said the Irish Ambassador and the Irish Foreign Minister -

This young lady here. Listen, I travelled across the border today,

came up from Dublin for this today, I looked at the DUP website they

want to move the North of Ireland forward. Surely, if we put up a

border that is bringing us straight back. Have people in this room

forgot what the border was about. I travel across the border on a weekly

basis. I don't want to be stopped on the border. Let me make my point -

If we leave the EU the reality is we will have border control because, as

well as this, you have to remember that the Northern Ireland is the

only place with within the UK, if we decide to leave, touching a member

state, which is the south of Ireland. There will have to be

security checks it would be ludicrous to think otherwise. Checks

are done when people come into the Irish Republic. They have agreed to

this? I know we are passionate about this

but you have to let people comment. I will not let you answer because

Claire is going to speak the fewer nice to me then you can speak.

APPLAUSE I'm always nice to you. The whole

tenor of the campaign has been about Johnny foreigner so they will have

to say they police the border. It's not just about the border, Europe

has underwritten the piece, invested literally millions and provided a

framework so the border is less in your face so that Britain and

Ireland have been able to relate to each other and trade with each other

as good neighbours and equals and overcome common problems. The man

referred to 100 years ago people dying on battlefields and you are

absolutely right and for 1000 years before that Europe was at war and

then people had the vision that working together instead of being at

odds with each other would bring peace and it has worked. Is the one

successful public resolution in the world. And on every occasion that

Europe went to war, if you go back through history, it's because people

tried to force a unity on the countries of Europe, either through

war, either through marriages, either through treaties or whatever.

When countries objected to it... Every European war that ever

happened was all about people having territorial ambitions and political

ambitions to unite Europe and that's exactly what we are agreeing to with

the European Union, putting tensions between countries as a result. You

are talking about turning your back on your neighbours, that is putting

tensions on common endeavour and the Good Friday Agreement. Hayden in the

audience. It is a complete fallacy between Northern Ireland and the

republic, would have the scare tactics from the former Chancellor

and the prime ministers and border guards and this and that. The Prime

Minister Szot understands and said maybe in the event of leaving,

checking passports going from Northern Ireland into mainland

Britain. In fact, if we leave next week, what could happen is if there

is going to be a hard border that may be replaced if the Republic join

the Schengen agreement which would mean they would be the ones that

would put up the border between the two countries. Are you worried about

the break-up of the UK? If Scotland leaves was Mac first of all,

Scotland cannot leave. -- if Scotland leaves? . This is a

referendum in the UK. It could lead to it? Know it couldn't. This is a

UK referendum about whether or not we stayed in the EU or leave. The

issue whether Scotland has another referendum about leaving the UK will

depend upon the right conditions being available there. All of the

indication show... If you want to come in, I need you to be quick. The

point I wanted to make, Stephen, is if the UK votes to come out, but

there is a fairly significant majority in Scotland to stay in, I

think Nicola Sturgeon is entitled to have a second referendum and even

with the low oil price the politics in Scotland have changed

sufficiently for that to happen. Sammy is sitting there as the

defender of the union and he just ought to understand that if he

carries on with the policy he is pursuing it could be this policy

that leads to the break-up of the United Kingdom. It is about a

structured predictions. It is like saying Saddam Hussein can bomb

Britain in 45 minutes. We have had nothing but this fear, uncertainty

and doubt. The Remain guys, it's not just that they cannot say anything

nice about this country, they have not said anything nice about the EU.

They say there will be war, famine, the destruction of civilisation and

we will never get the Olympics again. Excuse me... You haven't had

one positive thing to say. The reason is because nobody would be

joining the EU today, you know that. Excuse me, your argument is... Make

your mind up. APPLAUSE

You cannot be allowed to talk this drivel. The other day I saw on the

television if we stay in the European country we will have to

watch all of these other countries coming in, Albania, Macedonia,

people they think they can scare people with and go on about project

via. The reason is people are right to go on about project fear is there

is a lot to be scared of. One observation on Scotland Stephen.

While the price of oil is at $50 a or below I don't think the economic

case for an independent Scotland looks particularly strong. We are

moving on to the final subject to nice, farming and fisheries, very

important in this part of the world. Here is John Campbell again.

Northern Ireland farmers receive ?236 million in direct EU subsidies

last year and without that support farming as a whole would have made

no profit. A further 83 million was paid in rule development grants. If

we leave the EU that system would have to be replaced and most

developed countries do have a subsidy system -- rural. The

remaining macro side says there is no guarantee the funds would be

replaced and the Leave side says subsidies could be more generous and

it's true that non-EU countries like Norway give more support to farmers

but that tends to make food more expensive for consumers. Farmers

would also like less red tape, but any subsidy system will involve some

bureaucracy and environmental protection rules. Our fishing

industry is also governed by EU rules, attempting to prevent

overfishing and make trade economically and environmentally

sustainable, but that involves a high level of oversight with strict

rules on what Fish can be caught and how much. There is also the issue of

what sort of trade deal the UK would get after a Brexit. Wichary export

around 30% of agricultural produce to the EU and if we don't get

compressions of the meat and milk products could face high export

tariffs. A deal that involves good market access would mean we still

have to follow many EU rules but the Bo-lieve side thinks we might find

it easier to get into new markets if we're not in the EU. -- the Leave

side. We find in agriculture that being in the EU since the basic

payment and greening system has come on farmers' payments have gone down

and they are going down every two years and there is no guarantee

after 2020 those payments will continue. From our point of view,

before Britain was in the European Union, farmers did receive a good

programme of subsidies and the National Farmers Union could argue

their case every year to ensure there was good benefits for farmers

and it was market-based. If we leave, with rules and regulations,

can we press our politicians to take away some rules and regulations? You

are a farmer? I'm a dairy farmer. What is your question? About rules

and regulations. The CAP has been a disaster, it is the most amoral,

expensive system, it is ruining for developing countries and bad for

consumers and farmers and the CAP has created an ecological

catastrophe in our waters. Violi I admit I've heard against bringing

them back to Westminster or the devoted mistress and is is the one

that the young guy said here, we don't trust our administration is.

Aghast to the root of what this referendum is about. People from all

over the British Isles were prepared in the last analysis to defend by

force of arms. Are those gross promises or net promises we should

trust? This is a really serious point. My dad fought in the last war

with a Northern Ireland horse to live in a free country that makes

its own laws. We are talking about protecting those rights for our

kids. APPLAUSE

IUA Pharma, Melissa? Unfortunately, no, I'm a country person who goes

with a farmer but we disagree that are you a farmer? My question is on

this subsidies again. If we leave the Government takes control of the

subsidies and how can we guarantee they remain the same, they could

drop. They will drop. They are dropping already. The figure which

John quoted is ?120 million less than the year before so they are

dropping already, that's the first thing. The second thing is this - we

have always even before joining the EU had a system of farm subsidies.

Farming supplies the raw material for one of our main industries, the

agri- food industry, and of course we want to protect that because we

employ so many people in the agri- food industry and the last thing is

this, even if, let's say we did have the European Union in a fit of pique

putting up boundaries to our farmers and telling us we cannot sell to

Europe, because we are a net importer we would be able to deal

with them. Two things, Sammy mentioned the Single Market. Agri-

food employs nearly 100,000 people here, it is a massive industry in

Northern Ireland and you need access to this angle market. Subsidies,

we've been dependent on subsidies more through the strength of French

farmers, German farmers and Irish farmers, not the UK Government --

Single Market. Successive UK governments have been reluctant to

supporting the CAP. What I would warn my fellow farmers about is you

would depend on Westminster even Stormont the money and storm at

coming up with it. Claire. There is no guarantee any of that money would

be replaced Andy asked about rules and regulation. To be in the Single

Market you have to comply with those rules and you don't get a safe. A

third of exports are in agri- food, only 3% so you have an entirely

different policy but that money has allowed us to modernise, diversify,

it has done things like protect eels in Loch Neagh. This is another case

of putting all of the hills on industry and blaming it on the EU

and suddenly Magic sovereignty dust will go and undo that. I think we

can make a better fist of it. We talk about fisheries and that's an

industry that has a lot of Rob Evans but the quota is decided by the UK

Government -- problems. If you want to talk about quotas, the Tories

would... I want to talk to the farmer here. In Ireland there is two

massive fish factory ships, Russian ships, they can catch all they want.

They can sell to us. Whickham to the export of the EU, 56% of the British

beef is imported from Ireland, 56% of the butter is imported to

Britain, 28% of the cheese is imported to Britain. We are going on

about subsidies, everyone in this room has to eat and we have to be

supported. Currently Northern Ireland is a net beneficiary of

agriculture subsidies from Europe. If we take that away and the British

government gives it back into Northern Ireland, surely the British

government should want Northern Ireland to leave because we will be

in the same boat, sending money to Northern Ireland and not getting it

back. What it was, Stephen, is when I was researching this afternoon, I

can across a statement by the Ulster farmers union President Ian

Marshall, and I think this is really important, that's the guy supporting

farmers. The CAP is vital for farming incomes and no all tenet of

support measurements have been put forward by Brexit and back goes to

the heart of annual Hangeland Sammy Hannah's argument -- Daniel Hannan.

Annual subsidies would be tailored to the needs of the farming industry

in Northern Ireland. The very fact that we import so much of our food

into the United Kingdom from the EU is the reason why the EU not Dunne

will not block farmers selling to the EU -- not stop. Sammy talks

about trade deficits. The next time you are getting groceries, going to

Tesco that they sell you more than you sell them and see how they get

on. The fact is it's about a market that we can sell into. You have no

guarantee, the Tories have shown they are allergic to spending a

singleton anymore. The economy will contract and they won't have the

money to spend but if they get it they will do it in tax cuts, they

will not give it to struggling farmers. 87% of the income comes

from the EU. Anyone who says nobody cares about this debate, look at

this debate tonight, the passion in Northern Ireland. And depressed

looking at Twitter and Colin says everyone arguing about Brexit and

Stephen is more concerned about his breakfast! That is all we have time

for tonight. The debate continues. You said breakfast again, you are

obsessed with it! It has been lovely having your company, thank you,

Daniel, Sammy, Claire, Alistair, and thank you to the audience for your

company.