EU Referendum - Scotland Decides


EU Referendum - Scotland Decides

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Now on BBC News, EU Referendum - Scotland Decides.

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Hello, good evening and welcome to a BBC Scotland special debate on the

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EU referendum. Debating before our audience here in Glasgow this

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evening, leading in and out campaigners. For tabby cats leave,

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the former Conservative Scottish Secretary Lord Forsyth. For Remain,

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the Justice and Home Secretary Representative. For Leave the former

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Scottish National Party deputy leader. And for Remain, the leader

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of the Scottish Labour Party kid, Kasia Dugdale.

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So, our panellists will be taking questions from the audience, which

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includes committed Leave and Remain supporters in equal numbers and some

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undecided voters as well. Let's go straight to our first question,

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which comes from Fraser Knox. Good evening, panel. How large a

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shop with the Brexit Biju Age UK economy? -- shock -- would be Brexit

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Biju a UK economy? It would be very serious and we would see the results

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as the markets open on Friday. I'm not here to stay you, I want to make

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a positive case for why we are better off in the European Union.

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It's good to create jobs to sustain the economy we have and create

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opportunities for young people. There's no question it has been good

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for workers' rights. We can now make sure we don't compete with our

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neighbours on holiday lead and the amount of money we earn in a day and

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maternity and paternity rights and that's because we are part of the EU

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and I hope it continues. Lord Forsyth. I don't like the word shock

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and there could be some short-term uncertainty. Broadly I'm with Lord

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Rose who is the leader of the Remain campaign in the view that it

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wouldn't make much difference and matters would settle down after a

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period of time. Despite the scaremongering that's been going on,

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if you look at the markets today the pound is broadly where it was before

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the referendum was announced and the markets... The stock market went up

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this morning. I didn't think that was the way to look at it anyway.

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What we're talking about here is whether or not we restored to our

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parliamentary democracy the ability to take decisions and I believe in

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Britain and I believe that given the opportunity to decide our own

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destiny we will prosper in the long-term and that's how we should

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look at it. George Osborne has produced Treasury

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analysis which he says would cost 43,000 Scottish jobs within two

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years of a Brexit. He has talked of having to have an emergency budget

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to plug a ?30 million black hole in UK finances. Do you buy those

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figures? I think Scotland are a bit sick of this campaigning.

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Scaremongering and raising fears. What is true is that membership of

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the EU has brought significant benefits to the Scottish and British

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economies. For example, investment of regions and Nations in the UK,

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Scotland sees the most from the EU, to the tune of ?16 billion per

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annum. Our exports to the EU are worth ?2000 per head of everybody in

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this country, and they support over 3000 jobs. The chancellor is on the

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same side of the debate as you on this occasion. When he says that

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43,000 Scottish jobs would go within two years, I use saying he is

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scaremongering or do you think those figures are accurate? At the moment,

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we are part of a free market we have access to 500 million other

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consumers, that has brought massive benefits to the Scottish economy. If

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we withdraw from that free market, we will have no more access to

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trading with that free market which will of course have an impact on

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jobs and investment. 43,002 years? I am not willing or able to put a

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figure on it. But if we withdraw on the free market, it will affect jobs

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and investments. There will be an agreement reached between the EU and

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UK out of the EU, and I'll tell you why. It is because of trade figures.

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The European 27 export to us about ?290 billion worth of goods and

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services per year. We export to them about 228,000 a year. It is in the

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interests of both sides. You would think trade was only one way, the

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way they had put it. But with access to that market for the UK, there are

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lots of jobs tied up in the EU about access to the market. Plus the fact,

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if we vote Brexit on Saturday, we do not leave the European Union on

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Friday. The UK has to write a formal letter to the commission saying that

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we wish to withdraw. That is under article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

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They then have to be negotiations over a two year period where we are

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still members of the EU in that market. If you think of those

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figures and the millions of jobs on both sides, common sense will

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prevail. There will be a free trade agreement. Common sense tells you

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that will be the case. The shock will not have come. Bringing in our

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audience, and perhaps when it comes back to the question on this. Mr

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Knox, what do you think. I think we need to vote to leave and take back

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control. I think the EU proved itself to be a broken down the

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institution. I think it is best we leave on our own terms and negotiate

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those with the EU rather than facing ages -- ages orderly exit. Do you

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think that shock will be something we have to absorb or do you think

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there is scaremongering going on? I think there will be a short-term

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period of market volatility and turbulence, but once the markets get

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their heads around the FAQ we will be leaving, the markets will

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quickly recover. And this gentleman? How can you be so certain? What

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happens if other countries rebel against us because we have left is

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green countries are not going to rebel. But there could be countries

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that rebel against us because we have left. You can't be 100% sure,

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it's does not... I'm not saying we would be 100% sure. What I am saying

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is that if you look at the facts on the ground of trade and the jobs

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involved in Europe, coming to us, and our job is going to them, common

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sense will prevail. It would be lunacy on their part to put trade

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barriers up against us, because we could put them against them, and

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that serves nobody 's purpose. I am assuming that all the hysteria from

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Angela Merkel and company will die down. There is no way the German

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trade unions, whose members are reliant on selling to Al market,

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would allow a European politician to act in a stupid way in reference to

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a free trade agreement between us and the EU. I cannot guarantee 100%

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that the politicians will come to their senses, but the facts on the

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ground indicate that they will. Jim is right that there would probably

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be some sort of an agreement, what it is the terms of that that matter.

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Think of what the Norwegian Prime Minister told us last week. She said

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if the British leave the EU, they wouldn't like it, because in order

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to have free trade with the EU, Norway have to agree to passport was

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ordered checks in the Schengen area and to the free movement of people.

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The Norwegian Prime Minister described herself as being like a

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lobbying organisation in Brussels. -- passport-less border checks. She

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described it as such. The difficulty is that we don't know what the terms

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of the agreement would be. Those who want to leave the EU often cite

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migration and the free movement of workers as the main reason they want

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to leave. Outside of that, if you want to leave the EU, you would have

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to agree to the free movement of workers as Switzerland have had to

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do. You are shaking your head at that? There are many countries who

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have free trade with the EU who don't have free movement. Such as

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Turkey all Lichtenstein. We are the fifth largest economy in the world.

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They sell ?62 billion worth of product to us. Anybody who thinks

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that with the German and French elections coming up, if we vote to

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leave, Angela Merkel's office is not going to be filled with Fox wagon

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and other manufacturers saying, we sell millions of cars to Britain

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every year, please make sure this trade is maintained. It is simple

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scaremongering. You don't need to be in the EU to sell goods and services

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to Europe. America does that -- Volkswagon. Those countries not in

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the EU have been far better at increasing their exports than we

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have as members of. I want to hear some more from our audience. Our

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economy is the fifth-largest in the world, but that weighs heavily on

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trade. The has said it could fall as much as 10%. How will the impact

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trade? If it fell in value, that would help our exporters and

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enormously. It would make imports more expensive, making it easy for

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our own organisations and businesses to thrive and prosper. The single

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market... The use of the word market is misleading. It is a single

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regulatory zone. Anybody can sell to the single market, the Chinese,

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Indians and others do so. Tariffs will be applied. Sorry, I want to

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hear from the audience. I am still undecided, but this is my dilemma.

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Do the leave campaigners think that economic certainty is worth

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sacrificing our sovereignty for? I think we benefit from having workers

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rights, the opportunities that our young people get from being a part

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of Europe. But talking about these questions, look at what some of the

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business leaders and the Scottish whiskey industry are saying. Hang on

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a second, the microphone... The economy is based on people who

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generate the wealth. Scottish businesses have said that it is

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hugely important to be part of the UK and the EU, because they can

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trade with 28 nations with one set of regulations, and it is also an

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amazing platform for Scottish whiskey to get to China and America.

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That platform of being part of Europe is hugely advantageous to

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trade both with Europe and beyond Europe. Yes, we have to see the

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sovereignty, but I don't think we should be afraid of it if it means

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we are stronger and better of overall. We have a question from

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Adam. Financing the fishery and culture are sectors, will that be

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the same if we leave the EU? There is no reason why not. Before we

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entered the EU, we had deficiency payments to our farmers. I would

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very much doubt if any government of any particular ideology would starve

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our agricultural sector. And on fishing, the final scene from the

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SNP point of view, since 1973, would be that we would get rid of the

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common fisheries policy. Whether it was conducted from Westminster or

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Holyrood, as one professor at Glasgow University says, that will

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benefit Scottish fisheries. Why do you think the ANF you in Scotland

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has come out against a Brexit? It's chief executive argued that overall

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benefits of staying in outweigh advantages that businesses would get

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from leaving the EU? I am not sure, there are some farmers voting for

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leave who would prefer the deficiency payment system that we

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operated previously. You get people... There are no figures that

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would clinch the argument in either way. The common fisheries policy on

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does the argument that you share sovereignty in the EU. He did not

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share sovereignty in the EU. The transfer sovereignty to the central

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institution of the EU. The common fisheries policy is a classic

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example of that transfer. The common agricultural policy has brought

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significant benefits to Scotland. If vital funding to farmers and land

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owners to find vulnerable areas. It also provides significant funding to

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lots of community and environmental activities. Why have the NFU said

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that they want to come out against this? They said 40% of the EU budget

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is spent on the common agricultural policy. Significant subsidies come

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to Scotland and they have said nobody will tell them what is going

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to replace those subsidies. That is why... George users of State farming

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who is campaigning on the leeside says that farmers would get as much

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support or perhaps even more as they get now. That is his view, it is not

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detailed. He can say what he likes, but that doesn't involve any detail.

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When the Scottish government was asking people to vote for

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independence, they had detailed proposals. There has been nothing of

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the sort this time. What about the official Leave campaign? It is

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nothing to do with George Eustace. Farming and fishing policy will be

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the responsibility of the Scottish Parliament. Actually... It is a huge

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transfer of power to Scotland. The Scottish Parliament can decide what

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happens to our fishermen and farmers. I have got a ?10 note. Who

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will give me ?20 for it? That is the deal in Europe. We pay them 20

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billion, we get ten back. And we are told how to spend it. You talk to

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any farmer in Scotland today and ask them how it has been this year,

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filling in the forms and the disaster of paying the money. That

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money then gets sent back to us in ways that they determine. I want a

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Scottish Parliament to be able to decide these matters and a fishing

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and agricultural policy... I just want to pick up with you, this

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business of how much money would come to the farmers. The vote leave

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battle suggests that the money we might save if we left the EU in

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contributions would be more likely directed to the NHS? You can't spend

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it twice. This isn't a general election. It's not about winning or

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losing, it's about informing the public on the issues and at the end

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of the day we will get money back, we will get ?10 billion back. How it

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is spent is a matter for the elected government in Westminster for the

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Westminster government and in Scotland with agriculture and

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fishing and education and other powers that will come back to

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Scotland, it will be a matter for the first Minister and the Scottish

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Parliament to decide. Let me finish the point. That's how it should be.

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At the moment 60% of our laws and regulations are made by unelected

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commissioners to whom are accountable to no one and you can't

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get them out. Janet? On those powers, fishing and farming has been

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devolved since 1998 but negotiating with other countries over common

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fisheries policy is an common agricultural policies aren't

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devolved. They are the preserve of Westminster. Is with the Scottish

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government now. Have you read the Scottish government act? Yes. It's

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clear that negotiating is a national matter. You were going to return

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power to Britain last year. Jim has talked about making trade agreements

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with other countries, we have to replace what we have with something

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else. Very briefly, though. Mark Forsyth has said Scottish government

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will have more power. The economic levers of power remain at

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Westminster. If the British government is going to have more

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money as a result of leaving the EU... If it will have more money.

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You don't accept it will? I said if, who's to say it will give any of

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that money to the Scottish government to replace the subsidies

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that we currently get for our fishermen and farmers. I want to

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bring in the audience. I think we have a farmer. Andrew Wilson?

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Andrew, let's come to you first of all. A question for both sides. Make

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it as a point to contribute to the debate. It's a well-known fact that

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there's been turmoil for two years with farmers. There's been various

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campaigns to the government but there is yet to be any support from

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a UK government based. What makes you think that if we exit Europe

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they would support farmers because they have a chance to do so now.

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This is the hour but there's nothing to see. You've yet to make up your

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mind and decide which way to vote on Thursday as I understand it. How big

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a concern is this for you in that decision? It is colossal so it is.

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It's not just farmers, it's the whole rural economy that benefits

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from it. What do you want the government to do? What I'm saying is

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we are still waiting on subsidy payments that were June last year.

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If they can't deliver that, how can they deliver a whole common

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agricultural policy within the UK Christian green they are going to

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deliver a common agricultural policy from Europe, you've just explained

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that. If they can't do that then how are they going to deliver... We

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understand it is sitting at the door of the UK government so how are they

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going to deliver their own policy? Let me bring in a voice from the

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side of the room with the gentleman with the glasses. I must confess,

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this is the second time I have heard Michael Forsyth bring up this phrase

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unelected bureaucrats. Does the term pot, kettle and black spring to

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mind? And there were some hands up on this side of the room. The great

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virtue of our system on your point, which is a dig at me because I'm a

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member of the House of Lords, which is accountable to the House of

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Commons, the great virtue of our system is you were able to kick me

:21:50.:21:54.

out in 1997 when you didn't agree with our policy is. That is what is

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at stake here. I want to hear more from the audience. -- policies. This

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lady here. You say about the common agricultural policy but it doesn't

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work for Scotland to the point where it could impact the Barley

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production for the whiskey trade that was talked up so well by Kesia.

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Can we bring in Kezia Dugdale? Let's hear from Kezia Dugdale. There's

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something else that Michael Forsyth said that we can't let go by and

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that is the sense that 60% of our laws come from Europe, that's just

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not true. Only 13% of our laws even reference the European Union let

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alone enforce laws made in Europe upon us. It's another one of these

:22:43.:22:47.

scaremongering stories that you accused us of at the start of the

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programme. The farming concerns are very real, likewise in the fishing

:22:52.:22:55.

industry. I have friends and family in Peterhead where this is real, it

:22:56.:22:59.

is about livelihoods and it's very serious. We asked the Scottish

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fishermen is Federation what they thought about Europe and they say

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they are neutral and they say the fisheries policy doesn't work for

:23:08.:23:11.

them and they don't want to lose the free trade across Europe and they

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don't know what's in their best interests. It's really difficult.

:23:15.:23:18.

There might not be easy answers here. Think about this, do you

:23:19.:23:22.

genuinely believe that a Tory government wants to give more

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subsidy, more public money to you as a farmer? Do you believe they want

:23:28.:23:31.

to give more money to the NHS? The Tories believe in smaller state

:23:32.:23:35.

intervention and government, they aren't out going to help you get

:23:36.:23:43.

from one week to the next. They insist on smaller government. We

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will hear from Mark Forsyth later. One more question from Sarah Long.

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Sarah. I was wondering how would remaining in the U or leaving would

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affect controlling the high levels of immigration we are experiencing

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at the moment -- you? Michael Forsyth. -- EU. I agree with Jeremy

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Corbyn who said on the Andrew Marr programme on Sunday that while we

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are in the EU it will be impossible for us to control levels of

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immigration. I think that is very important. I think we do need to

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have migrants coming to our country but we need to be able to control

:24:24.:24:27.

the numbers so we can match the services for the schools, health

:24:28.:24:31.

service, housing, congestion on our roads and all the other things we

:24:32.:24:37.

have to live with in our country. There are many countries which are

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not in the European Union. In fact most countries in the world aren't

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in the European Union but most countries I can think of think it's

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important to control our borders, and who we can throw out. Because of

:24:51.:24:56.

the European Court we find ourselves with serious criminals here who we

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cannot expel. That's a good example of how we've lost control of our

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ability to run our own affairs and by leaving the European Union we can

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have an immigration policy which meets our needs and brings the

:25:08.:25:10.

skills we need to Scotland and the UK as a whole. And also an

:25:11.:25:15.

immigration policy which is fair to those people who want to come here

:25:16.:25:21.

from non-EU countries, people from India, Pakistan, South Africa,

:25:22.:25:25.

Australia and so on. So we welcome people who can make a real

:25:26.:25:29.

contribution to our economy and not turn people side who can make a huge

:25:30.:25:33.

contribution to the health service and other services because we are

:25:34.:25:38.

stuck with controlling numbers coming from the EU. In terms of net

:25:39.:25:44.

migration of EU citizens to the UK according to the office of national

:25:45.:25:48.

statistics, in the year ending June 2015 around 180,000 came to the UK

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-- Office for National Statistics. Obviously a smaller proportion for

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Scotland. Yesterday in the interview Lord Forsyth referred to on the

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Andrew Marr programme with Kezia Dugdale, Jeremy Corbyn asked if

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there was an upper limit to immigration coming into the country

:26:08.:26:10.

and he said you can't have one while you have a free movement of labour.

:26:11.:26:16.

Do you agree? I think we should say that we recognise people choosing to

:26:17.:26:19.

live and make their lives in Scotland is a good thing, it's added

:26:20.:26:24.

a tremendous amount to our society to be culturally diverse and to have

:26:25.:26:28.

a mix of ethnicities and we should recognise that. Those figures are

:26:29.:26:33.

right, 180,000 people, a small percentage of our population. If you

:26:34.:26:42.

listen to the Leave campaign, we've all seen that horrific poster Nigel

:26:43.:26:45.

Fry unveiled this week, every migrant you would think came to this

:26:46.:26:47.

country and they got a house and were on benefits and took from us.

:26:48.:26:50.

They are being blamed and they are being told they are the fault of

:26:51.:26:55.

everything wrong in our society -- Nigel Friars. The question I asked

:26:56.:26:59.

you was about what Jeremy Corbyn said on the programme yesterday, can

:27:00.:27:05.

there be a limit? -- Nigel Farage. He was clear that was an aspect of

:27:06.:27:09.

the current situation in the EU. That's a fact? That's right. We need

:27:10.:27:14.

to understand that immigration in the UK is more broader than the EU.

:27:15.:27:23.

The questions that we are being asked is about what type of country

:27:24.:27:27.

we want to be, what kind of society we want to be. One represented by

:27:28.:27:33.

Nigel Farage who tries to label immigrants as forever taking from

:27:34.:27:37.

last? 5% of EU immigrants claim benefits in our country. -- from us.

:27:38.:27:42.

If you listen to the Leave campaign you would think it is 95%. You're

:27:43.:27:49.

more likely to be treated by by an immigrant in the NHS than sitting

:27:50.:27:56.

next to one. If you think there's not enough GPs, not enough council

:27:57.:28:00.

houses for young people, problems with school placements, blame the

:28:01.:28:04.

Tories who have spent the last five years cutting public services. Don't

:28:05.:28:08.

blame immigrants who have just invested in it. I want to bring in

:28:09.:28:14.

our other panellists in a moment but as Kezia Dugdale mentioned the

:28:15.:28:19.

Tories I want to bring you back in, Michael Forsyth. That poster that

:28:20.:28:22.

Kezia Dugdale referred to with the column of people seeking refuge in

:28:23.:28:26.

the EU with the banner on it, breaking point, what did you think

:28:27.:28:32.

of it? I think it was a particularly stupid poster because it confused to

:28:33.:28:35.

things, which is refugees and economic migrants. -- two things. I

:28:36.:28:42.

would like to see us do more on refugees, that means being able to

:28:43.:28:46.

control the numbers coming into our country, which we need to do if we

:28:47.:28:50.

leave the European Union. For example, there is the most appalling

:28:51.:28:55.

persecution going on in Syria and elsewhere of Christians. I've been

:28:56.:28:58.

trying to persuade the government to declare this as genocide, which

:28:59.:29:01.

would mean we could intervene directly to help those people. I

:29:02.:29:06.

thought it was a silly poster but quite frankly, if this campaign is

:29:07.:29:11.

reduced to during about posters that Nigel Farage has got when what is at

:29:12.:29:16.

stake here is our democratic future then something has gone badly wrong

:29:17.:29:21.

with our campaign -- arguing. Let's go to the audience before we go back

:29:22.:29:25.

to the panellists. In the back row, The Lady in the Van will. There's a

:29:26.:29:31.

lot being said about immigration -- the lady in the middle. But

:29:32.:29:36.

immigration actually works both ways. There are 2.2 million Brits

:29:37.:29:41.

who are working, living and retired abroad. And I would like to know

:29:42.:29:48.

what's going to happen to them. If we come out of the EU do they all

:29:49.:29:53.

have to come back? What kind of future is therefore all of these

:29:54.:29:57.

people? I will pick up on that and your answer to the broader question,

:29:58.:30:02.

Jim? Normally about 40,000 Norwegians actually living in Spain

:30:03.:30:07.

I think. I don't think they will be greatly affected one way or the

:30:08.:30:12.

other to tell you the truth. On immigration, let me make it

:30:13.:30:18.

perfectly clear, on the Leave side, people have different reasons for

:30:19.:30:23.

wanting to leave. We are not all Nigel Farages, let me tell you!

:30:24.:30:24.

APPLAUSE And I think if the Leave side loses

:30:25.:30:38.

on Thursday then he will be primarily responsible for the

:30:39.:30:41.

disgraceful way he has conducted the argument on immigration.

:30:42.:30:48.

We need a rational, sensible, adult discussion. Not so much a debate but

:30:49.:30:54.

a discussion about immigration. Of course, numbers of people coming

:30:55.:31:00.

into our country create a problem. The problem isn't culture or

:31:01.:31:04.

stealing someone's job, it's being able to plan. When I was on a

:31:05.:31:09.

hospital board many years ago we needed the registrar general's

:31:10.:31:14.

figures in order to allocate to different areas of the medical

:31:15.:31:20.

services. At one time we had children being born at a fair rate

:31:21.:31:24.

so obviously we got those figures, we could give more money to the

:31:25.:31:30.

maternity services in Glasgow which combined with the birthrate also was

:31:31.:31:35.

a problem because homebirths really were quite dangerous, that was

:31:36.:31:38.

before the slum clearance took place. So we've got to be able to

:31:39.:31:43.

say there are three categories of migrant. There is the asylum seeker

:31:44.:31:49.

who we should welcome all the time without dispute. The other two

:31:50.:31:54.

categories are short-term economic migrants, which I have been

:31:55.:31:58.

incidentally, when I couldn't get work in Scotland I went to Saudi

:31:59.:32:02.

Arabia. So there's economic short-term migrants. And the third?

:32:03.:32:06.

This is quite important because we've had lots of stuff about this.

:32:07.:32:10.

But we are also pressed for time. The other section are people who

:32:11.:32:14.

want to come and live here. And Scotland could do with many more

:32:15.:32:20.

people from all over the world coming to live here because our

:32:21.:32:25.

population was declining until we got the immigration principally from

:32:26.:32:29.

eastern Europe, and it's now rising. A rising population is good for

:32:30.:32:33.

everyone, more prosperous and you have a bigger home market. Let's

:32:34.:32:41.

have an adult, sensible discussion. 3.3%... 3.3% of those in Scotland at

:32:42.:32:47.

the moment are EU Nationals, a further 2.1% are from outside the

:32:48.:32:50.

EU, that's the proportion of the overall population.

:32:51.:32:57.

There is a reason that leaving the EU would reduce our numbers and

:32:58.:33:11.

ability to take in migrants fleeing, and there is a reason that we should

:33:12.:33:18.

not have reasonable migration policy. We have a skills gap that

:33:19.:33:22.

needs to be filled by immigrants. We have many families being sent home,

:33:23.:33:29.

such as at the moment a family from Australia. Only 5% of the population

:33:30.:33:37.

from the UK comes from the EU. Various studies of the last couple

:33:38.:33:40.

of years have shown that migrants from the EU take a net contribution

:33:41.:33:46.

to the British economy. They are paying more by the way of taxes and

:33:47.:33:52.

benefits. I think we need to challenge the myth that what is

:33:53.:33:57.

creating pressure on our public services is EU migrants. What is

:33:58.:34:04.

creating pressure is the failure of this Conservative government to

:34:05.:34:08.

properly invest in public services, particularly the NHS and affordable

:34:09.:34:11.

housing. APPLAUSE I need to come back on

:34:12.:34:20.

this. We are not in charge of the amount of money that we get to spend

:34:21.:34:26.

on the NHS. As you said yourself, it is dependent on the formula. Do not

:34:27.:34:30.

blame the Scottish government for the economic failure of the Tory

:34:31.:34:35.

government. Why should people in Scotland have to pay more than to

:34:36.:34:38.

people in England to have decent public services? We're almost at the

:34:39.:34:49.

end of our time. Let me hear the lady on the side and then this

:34:50.:34:54.

gentleman. To pick up the family question, I was appalled when

:34:55.:34:58.

Michael Gove suggested that if we left the EU, Scotland would be able

:34:59.:35:03.

to sort out its own immigration issues. Talking about families from

:35:04.:35:11.

outside the EU, why should we believe that? It is disingenuous. On

:35:12.:35:17.

the basis of what we experienced post- referendum, I wouldn't believe

:35:18.:35:24.

a word they say. Thank you for that. Joanna, I agree that there is a

:35:25.:35:29.

skills gap in Scotland, but with the EU, you can't control what comes out

:35:30.:35:33.

and in. Surely it makes more sense to have a system where you can

:35:34.:35:40.

prioritise the skills you have mentioned? We need a sensible

:35:41.:35:46.

migration policy, that is what we don't have. Thank you for your

:35:47.:35:51.

contributions, we need to move on to another topic. Our next question

:35:52.:35:57.

comes from Jamie McEwan. Would it be better to be an independent Scotland

:35:58.:36:03.

with the EU, all part of the UK within the EU? An independent

:36:04.:36:12.

Scotland within the EU? Other options are available, it depends

:36:13.:36:16.

what happens in the referendum. If there is a Brexit in Scotland votes

:36:17.:36:21.

to stay in, what happens? I don't think you should have to pick

:36:22.:36:26.

between two unions. I want to remain both part of the UK and within the

:36:27.:36:33.

EU. If we are in a situation on Friday where we have voted as a

:36:34.:36:39.

United Kingdom to leave the EU, then I think the arguments for staying

:36:40.:36:43.

part of the UK become even stronger. We will just set ourselves a task of

:36:44.:36:50.

leaving our second biggest trading partner. So much we have discussed

:36:51.:36:59.

tonight was linked with that. The Labour Party's position is simply

:37:00.:37:04.

that we oppose a second referendum on independence over the next five

:37:05.:37:08.

years, simply because we respect democracy. We were told it was a

:37:09.:37:14.

once-in-a-lifetime... It has to be respected. I am obliged to remind

:37:15.:37:18.

you that in an interview in February, you contemplated that in

:37:19.:37:22.

these circumstances it wasn't inconceivable. That she might back

:37:23.:37:28.

an independent Scotland? Yes, and I think everyone expects me to be

:37:29.:37:31.

thoughtful and reflective about that. I thought in Scotland we were

:37:32.:37:37.

in a position to have a more nuanced conversation about the Constitution.

:37:38.:37:42.

But we are still divided between yes and no, black and white. I believe

:37:43.:37:50.

that Scotland's future best lies within the UK, and I think

:37:51.:37:53.

especially if we were to leave the EU which I hope that we don't, that

:37:54.:37:59.

relationship becomes even more important and I will be even more

:38:00.:38:03.

drawn to remain in in the UK if we leave the EU. We are on the same

:38:04.:38:10.

side tonight, which is very pleasant but we were on different sides

:38:11.:38:14.

during the independence referendum. If you took any interest, you will

:38:15.:38:19.

recall that we were repeatedly told by Better Together that the only way

:38:20.:38:23.

to continue Scotland's membership of the EU was to vote no and stay in

:38:24.:38:32.

the UK. In the event that the UK votes to leave the EU in Scotland

:38:33.:38:39.

votes to remain in the EU, then the circumstances in which people voted

:38:40.:38:42.

to remain in the UK in 2014 will have changed significantly. The SNP

:38:43.:38:50.

said that they felt the Scottish Parliament should be entitled to

:38:51.:38:54.

hold another referendum if there was a material and significant change in

:38:55.:38:59.

the circumstances that occurred in 2014. Alex Salmond says that would

:39:00.:39:01.

happen in two years, what do you think? I think there would be a

:39:02.:39:10.

ground swell for support of a second referendum, if Scotland is taken out

:39:11.:39:15.

of the EU against her will. I have a say on what people have said on

:39:16.:39:19.

their doorsteps, discussing the issue. People are concerned that

:39:20.:39:24.

after being told that the only way to remain in the EU in 2040 was to

:39:25.:39:30.

vote no, but now they are being forced out. I want to see Scotland

:39:31.:39:35.

as an independent member state in the EU. But I also want to see the

:39:36.:39:40.

UK remain in the EU. I think that is in the interests of the whole of the

:39:41.:39:46.

UK economy. The SNP has been trying to run a positive campaign to

:39:47.:40:01.

remain. That is pure... I have read the manifesto and I have also read

:40:02.:40:05.

these words in the Sunday Herald from Nicola Sturgeon. If Scotland

:40:06.:40:10.

does face being taken out of Europe against our will, then the options

:40:11.:40:14.

set out in our manifesto must be on the table for consideration. A very

:40:15.:40:24.

slippery one. The SNP does not have the mandate to hold a second

:40:25.:40:31.

independence referendum. The same position in 2016 as Alex Salmond was

:40:32.:40:40.

in 2007, a minority government. But with this difference, Alex Salmond

:40:41.:40:46.

at least ask for a mandate. Nicola Sturgeon had the option to add this

:40:47.:40:56.

option, and I ask you for a mandate in order to hold a second

:40:57.:41:00.

referendum. She doesn't have the mandate. And that power, legal

:41:01.:41:07.

power, to grant a referendum, is at Westminster. The only way you can

:41:08.:41:12.

leverage that out of Westminster is having a majority combined with a

:41:13.:41:19.

mandate. You then have the moral authority to say whether people

:41:20.:41:24.

wanted. The next time that the SNP might get a majority and might ask

:41:25.:41:35.

for a mandate is 2021. To then pretends to the yes voters that we

:41:36.:41:44.

would be on our way to a second referendum... . I have the greatest

:41:45.:41:54.

respect for Jim, but he is simply wrong. Google the SNP manifesto and

:41:55.:41:59.

page 24, and you will see the pages I have set out for you. The SNP

:42:00.:42:05.

reserved 46.5% of the vote. That is the highest mandate that any

:42:06.:42:09.

government has in western Europe. Furthermore... Stock. You have

:42:10.:42:22.

already had a say. I am confused about the SNP's position, because of

:42:23.:42:28.

the argument is, and polls suggest that if England votes to leave and

:42:29.:42:31.

Scotland votes to remain, then we should have another referendum. The

:42:32.:42:35.

simple message to anyone who wants to keep the EU is that you should

:42:36.:42:39.

vote to leave in Scotland otherwise it will be used to make the case for

:42:40.:42:44.

another referendum. The polls show that the majority of people in

:42:45.:42:48.

Scotland do not want to have another referendum. Either way, if on Friday

:42:49.:42:55.

people vote to remain in the EU, which I am opposed to, I will accept

:42:56.:42:59.

the result, because they am a democrat. I think it's a disgrace

:43:00.:43:03.

the SNP continue to damage Scotland's interest by dragging out

:43:04.:43:08.

this idea that we could leave the UK. If we were to leave the UK with

:43:09.:43:12.

the oil price where it is, we would be boss. And the EU won't have you

:43:13.:43:17.

because you wouldn't be able to make the debt criteria. I want to knock

:43:18.:43:23.

this idea on the head that we would be bust. The United Kingdom has a

:43:24.:43:33.

deficit of 76 billion, despite six years of austerity. We are part...

:43:34.:43:38.

You brought it up, so I am finishing off the point. It is a disingenuous

:43:39.:43:43.

argument. Most countries in Europe have a deficit, an independent

:43:44.:43:47.

Scotland would have a small deficit, the UK has a deficit of 76 billion.

:43:48.:43:52.

Hearing from some of our audience, the gentleman in the front row? Your

:43:53.:44:01.

entire eight campaign for the Scottish Referendum was everything

:44:02.:44:04.

will stay the same, which is why you wanted the EU exit as a result. But

:44:05.:44:10.

if we are out of the EU, you've lost one of your status quo option. You

:44:11.:44:18.

will now be asking people to leave the UK and hope to join the EU if we

:44:19.:44:23.

are out. This will not help you win, but I don't think people are going

:44:24.:44:30.

to want to join this thing called the EU. Every citizen of Scotland

:44:31.:44:35.

has a continuing rights to be a citizen of the EU. There are many

:44:36.:44:42.

small and newly independent nations joining the EU. It is simply

:44:43.:44:46.

ridiculous to think that an independent Scotland would not be

:44:47.:44:54.

welcome in the EU. Would you have the pound or the euro? We would need

:44:55.:45:01.

to look at it at the time, I can't make that decision right now. We

:45:02.:45:06.

would need to look at the economic conditions at the time, we would

:45:07.:45:12.

probably not want to be tied to the pound. In 2014 and in a letter to

:45:13.:45:18.

the Scottish Parliament from the Vice President of the EU, they told

:45:19.:45:26.

us that the day you are independent, you are out. There is no reason to

:45:27.:45:31.

believe that they wouldn't tell us the same thing next time, if the UK

:45:32.:45:40.

remains... Opinion says that Scotland would have a right to

:45:41.:45:44.

remain a member. We must leave it there because we are out of time.

:45:45.:45:48.

Thank you very much indeed to the four on our panel and to our

:45:49.:45:54.

audience. That's all we've got time for, voting is

:45:55.:45:55.

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