The Big Decision with Nick Robinson


The Big Decision with Nick Robinson

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We have taken the big decision - Britain is out

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Welcome to the heart of London - seen by some

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Soon though, it will no longer be part of the EU.

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Tonight, in a special programme, we reflect on the big decision you,

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the voters, have taken - perhaps the biggest decision

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What does the future hold for a UK now leaving the world's biggest

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club, and now looking for a new Prime Minister?

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Can the United Kingdom hold together, as

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says a second referendum is highly likely?

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On a night when the country radically changed direction.

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I travelled from north to south, starting in Edinburgh,

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across urban and rural Britain, as the country turned its back

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I will do everything I can as Prime Minister to steady the ship over the

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coming weeks and months but I do not think it would be right for me to

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try to be the captain that steers our country to its next destination.

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Rachel Burden profiles the lifelong rivalry between David Cameron

:01:31.:01:33.

and his likely successor, Boris Johnson.

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What next for the Polish builder planning to make

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Elaine Dunkley is with young people in Birmingham -

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a generation that voted to remain, in a city that voted to leave.

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We are one of the youngest cities in Europe, in terms of how many

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young people are here, and I was just upset that we didn't

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come out in the droves of us that are living here to say that,

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as the stats show, most of us want to remain.

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And drawing the first line of history - the cartoonist

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Gerald Scarfe is with us to show us his take on Brexit.

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So the big decision has been taken - but only just.

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In keeping with what many saw as a divisive campaign,

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the result reveals a divided United Kingdom.

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Leave won, 51.9% voting to get out of the EU.

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It was a victory won in England, where 53.4% voted Leave, and in

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But in Scotland there was a big majority for Remain - 62% -

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as there was in Northern Ireland, with 55.8%.

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The country is split - a division that was clear to me

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as I travelled the length of the country, starting

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in Edinburgh last night just before the polls closed.

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Perhaps few of us realised it but, as we voted yesterday, we were

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juggling with fire. Our vote is not just about what was on the ballot

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paper but also the unity of our country and who will govern us from

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now on. The theory was that this referendum would resolve something,

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it would settle a question. One thing it has settled with the

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divisions in Britain, divisions between one nation, here I am in

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Scotland, and the rest of the country. Divisions between

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generations. Divisions between rich and poor. Will it settle anything?

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Who on earth knows. Or are you worried that Scotland might vote one

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way and the rest of the UK the other? Convinced. I was hovering in

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the box? With a pencil? Yes. Edinburgh is the most pro-EU city in

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the most pro-EU country. Over the border is where the anti-EU revolt

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began. The border between England and Scotland is not just the border

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between nations, but between differing attitudes to membership of

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the EU, one of the many divisions which have been exposed in this

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referendum. The first city to declare, the first tremor to signal

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the earthquake to come, was Newcastle. I headed to a polling

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station as it prepared to close. You just voted? Yes, I voted to leave.

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Are you scared that Britain might leave? No, I might just go home.

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You'd go home if the UK left Europe? Yeah, I guess. It's been nice having

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you. You've got a minute, by my count. In you go. How did you vote?

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Remain. No doubts? No doubt. Because? No idea. The door has

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closed, no more votes, polling is over. Britain's destiny hangs in the

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balance. So Big Ben has struck ten o'clock and we start trying to

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discover which side has carried the day. The CBI are having their

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north-east dinner tonight. The polls have closed. Let's see how Novy the

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businessmen are. -- nervy. Polling has just closed. Is it a nervous

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occasion? Very. Business leaders here are very conscious so much has

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been on hold. I'm relaxed, I don't contemplate the answer can't be

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remain. I do business all over the world and I don't give a flying hoot

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about it. I think we should be independent, out of it, and get on

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with it. WAG Newcastle voted to remain, just, but, down the road in

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Sunderland came the sign that Britain was heading for the exit. --

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Newcastle voted to remain. The conventional wisdom down south in

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London is that Remain have just edged it. That is what the financial

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markets and private polls are saying and both sides privately saying but,

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until these votes are counted up and announced in the north-east,

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frankly, nobody really knows. The total number of votes cast in favour

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of Leave was... CHEERING DROWNED SPEECH THEY ARE

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CELEBRATING BECAUSE THAT IS OVER 60%. SUNDERLAND, THE FIRST PLACE IN

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THE COUNTRY DEVOTED LEAVE, by a much major modern -- a much major mark --

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bigger margin than anybody expected. There are people who have not voted

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since Margaret Thatcher was Prime Minister. It is the working man who

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has said no. Are they saying no to Europe or to the guys running the

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country? A bit of both. The time has come with people have said, we've

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had enough of big Bob -- big government and big business telling

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us what is good for us. We have been an island for hundreds of years.

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Germany tried twice to rule Europe. This is the third time, and we have

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had enough. Why should we be dictated to by the likes of Germany?

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In the last few minutes, the pound has fallen to levels not seen since

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2009. For those still awake, the mood was beginning to change, the

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market starting to panic, Leave starting to believe they could win.

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I voted to leave. Leave. Leave. Leave. So you feel good? I would say

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so. Did you believe your side would win? Yes. Because? The only reason I

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could see for staying was that we don't know what will happen if we go

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out, and that isn't a good enough reason for not making that decision.

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I think we've got a chance to make written Britain again. I really

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believe now is the chance to take that opportunity. -- to make Britain

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Britain again. I don't know what that means, sorry. For Britain to be

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a self-governing country, with laws and regulations and a parliament

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that looks after what we are doing. Birds are singing, dawn over Leeds.

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I've had a text message from a senior Remain member, effectively

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conceding defeat. In there, students representing the many young people

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who have campaigned to Remain. Do they accept they have lost? You

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still believe it? I think we will be OK. You think it will be OK? It will

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be down to the wire, I don't know. If it goes Leave, how will you feel?

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Devastated. Most of us graduate in two weeks, so it is a worrying

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horizon. We are supposed to be entering the job market. It's scary.

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It is. 7:30am. Anybody who went to bed at a normal time thought they

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were going to bed Britain staying in the EU, now working, having their

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breakfast, and they are discovering the news that we are leaving the EU,

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and it changes just about everything. The question is, how

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will Britain feel? It's a big thing. First English breakfast in England.

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Feeling good then? Very. I am. We get our country back today. It's

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Independence Day. Out? Out. Done. Not possibly. No, it's possible. No

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more Europe. Not good. The result now clear, so, too, was the fear

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beginning to spread among those who desperately wanted us to remain,

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including this farmer I met in Peterborough with his daughter. I'm

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afraid it could even result in violence. In Britain between

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countries? Between countries, and I wouldn't want any bloodshed. Could

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break up the EU, break up the United Kingdom. It fills me with dread. The

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Prime Minister will be talking in five minutes from Downing Street.

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He's not going to resign, is he? I think he will be gone in weeks.

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Events would start to move a lot faster. I think the country requires

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fresh leadership. The Prime Minister walked on to Downing Street and we

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headed back to London. David Cameron has quit. People said he wouldn't

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have to if he lost, but he felt he needed to. Why? The reasons are

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clear. This was a referendum he didn't need to have. It was a

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referendum of his choosing on a date that he picked, on turf deselected.

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And he lost it. That's why. -- on turf he selected. By now, the pound

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had crashed, stocks, too, and the markets were in panic. I landed in

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what already felt like a different country. Not just because so much

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had changed in such a short time but because London, which voted

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overwhelmingly to Remain, has more in common with Edinburgh than

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anywhere in between. It is now 10:30am. We are in London. At red,

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tall tower, Westminster tower, is the new centre of power in this

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country. It's the headquarters of Vote Leave. Boris Johnson, Michael

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Gove, they will meet there, they will appear in front of the media.

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They are the men who will shape the direction this country now takes.

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Take back control, one of the most powerful slogans in the history of

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politics, and control is precisely what they now have. Let's examine

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some of the consequences. Stephanie Flanders of JP Morgan

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Asset Management, in Edinburgh, our Scotland Editor,

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Sarah Smith, and at Westminster, our Deputy

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Political Editor, John Pienaar. Stephanie, there will be people

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watching tonight who are worried about their own financial situation,

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their savings, their pensions, their job. How worried should they be? It

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has been a hit to the economy. We think there will be a hit to

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confidence, investment, and that means slower job growth in the next

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couple of months and years, there will be less investment in that kind

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of activity. We don't think at the moment it will push the economy into

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recession, but the economy is already slowed down a lot, and we

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know the Bank of England will be watching closely to see how it

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affects the financial markets and real economic activity out there. If

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they see a risk, I think they might do a bit more to have a further cut

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in interest rates. If you were hoping to have higher interest rates

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on your savings in the next year or so, that is much is likely to

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happen, but equally a mortgage rate rise is less likely. We will see

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higher inflation. The fall in the pound in import prices will be

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higher, so inflation could be 3-4% next year.

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The Stock Exchange. The FTSE, was down, went up to a fall of about 2%.

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Maybe it will all be fine? You were talking about the middle of the

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night and we had that plunge in sterling. It was really brought

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about because there had been this rather odd rally in the markets in

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the last week, for no good reason, I think. The markets had decided

:14:49.:14:52.

Remain would win, despite the fact that the polls seemed to be pretty

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close, there had been this certainty that it had overtaken the markets

:14:57.:15:02.

and pushed them up so when they came down it seemed dramatic. The FTSE is

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higher now. Behind me is the City of London, you now work in the City of

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London. Of course the City of London is not just creating jobs in this

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city but across the UK. Some companies have warned of very, very

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big job losses. In the thousands, as big has to be moved to the EU. Is

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that going to happen or are banks going to wait and see? I think they

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won't just wait and see but it's in between those. The Leave side said

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the next day nothing will change. That's true. But every finance

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director, every multinational, not just banks has been on the phone to

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other people in the company saying who are our trading relationship,

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what are customer relationships with the UK and other parts of Europe,

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how is it going to affect them? In the case of banks there are bits of

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business that could be very affected and they won't be able to wait to

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see how this deal goes. Nothing will happen immediately but parts of that

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business will go and probably go long before these negotiations

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start. Money waits for no one. Politics waits for no one. Let's

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turn to our deputy political editor. John, we had this extraordinary

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democratic experiment but we are now going to see the Tory membership,

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not the public, not Members of Parliament, choose our next Prime

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Minister and within weeks. Yes, I think it's all sorts of open

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questions as to where we go with all of this. They will have to have a

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new leader because David Cameron's authority was shot through, they

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need a leader who can sit down at conference tables and be believed

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when he says it's possible to drive a successful bargain on behalf of

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Britain. The new leader will start with an entire will you new

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programme, to get through parliament, which still has a small

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majority for the Conservative Party, a dangerously small majority and a

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country waiting to see what is in store from their new-look Brexit

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Government which is why the possibility of an early general

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election is a real and open question. And is it a sure bet that

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next leader will be Boris Johnson? He is going to take a lot of

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stopping. His popularity out in the country with the party at large,

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that goes without saying. You see it almost wherever he goes. He doesn't

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have quite the same devoted following at Westminster. He is

:17:16.:17:20.

someone who can work a hall of 5,000 people. He is less about working a

:17:21.:17:25.

room of MPs with 20 in them. Less by way of pressing the flesh in the tea

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room, less by way of lunch and dinner parts and a kind word for

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everyone. He has been a bit neglectful about that. Tory MPs see

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he is the frontrunner, he will attract support. Question mark, in

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the weeks and months between now and the selection of a new leader will

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Boris' weaknesses such as they are be undermined? His claim to the top

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job and the past record, the dark horse, the one you don't put first

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in the running when the contest starts, that's the one who comes

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through in the end. Thank you. No rest for you after the

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referendum. In Edinburgh, our Scotland editor is also going to be

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busy. The First Minister made clear that it was on the table the

:18:07.:18:10.

possibility of a second referendum on Scottish independence. What does

:18:11.:18:15.

that mean, is it going to happen and if so how soon? Well, we asked her

:18:16.:18:19.

that directly and she said she thought it was highly likely. Now

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that's different from saying she is definitely going to do it. Instead

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she's been inserting her right to hold a second referendum if she

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wants to saying this Brexit is a material change from the

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circumstances in which Scotland voted in 2014 against becoming an

:18:36.:18:38.

independent country. She thinks she could hold a referendum. Will she?

:18:39.:18:42.

That entirely depends on whether or not she thinks she can win it.

:18:43.:18:46.

Nobody really knows at this point whether 62% of Scotland voting to

:18:47.:18:51.

stay in the EU would translate into something like 60% of Scots voting

:18:52.:18:56.

to leave the UK. Until she has some evidence as to whether or not this

:18:57.:18:59.

has increased support for independence she's not going to risk

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calling a referendum. Thank you very much.

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The referendum has divided Britain, its divided the Government -

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and has now brought David Cameron's premiership to an end.

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And, from the moment the former London Mayor Boris Johnson backed

:19:12.:19:14.

Leave, this became a battle not just over EU membership, but also

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And, as Rachel Burden reports, it's a battle that dates back

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Two men born into privilege, educated among the elite,

:19:23.:19:34.

political careers converging but torn apart by Europe.

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Both men were schooled at Eton, the natural choice for a posh

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boy like David Cameron, but it was brains that won

:19:43.:19:44.

He was a scholarship pupil and rapidly became

:19:45.:19:48.

David Cameron, on the other hand, didn't have quite the same impact.

:19:49.:19:54.

Former pupils and teachers here remember Boris Johnson

:19:55.:19:59.

as an extraordinary pupil with formidable wit,

:20:00.:20:02.

full of personality and popular right across the school.

:20:03.:20:05.

Even then, he was known simply as Boris.

:20:06.:20:07.

David Cameron, by contrast, is described as clever,

:20:08.:20:11.

decent, hard-working, but with none of the star quality

:20:12.:20:13.

Both men joined the Bullingdon Club, a drinking society for upper-class

:20:14.:20:26.

toffs, but that notorious picture of them together

:20:27.:20:29.

In fact, their paths at university were rather different.

:20:30.:20:35.

Boris continued to push his own personal brand, running successfully

:20:36.:20:38.

for president of the Oxford Union, a sort of mini House of Commons.

:20:39.:20:43.

Honourable members wishing to vote in favour of the motion will occupy

:20:44.:20:46.

Just like at Eton, Boris was well known throughout the university

:20:47.:20:51.

and had what one contemporary described as a truly

:20:52.:20:54.

remarkable personal, political franchise.

:20:55.:20:57.

David Cameron, by contrast, despite studying politics

:20:58.:21:01.

and working hard enough to earn himself a first, did not

:21:02.:21:06.

play any active part in student political life.

:21:07.:21:11.

James Dellingpole socialised with David Cameron but says

:21:12.:21:14.

it was Boris who had a clear sense of his own destiny.

:21:15.:21:18.

He knew from the start that he wanted a career in politics,

:21:19.:21:22.

which is why he was very keen to become president

:21:23.:21:26.

He was a flamboyant character but he was very much

:21:27.:21:31.

He couldn't have been less interested in student politics.

:21:32.:21:39.

He probably thought it was rather beneath him.

:21:40.:21:44.

Both men carried the characteristics of their early lives

:21:45.:21:46.

Boris Johnson, the scruffy genius with his gift for the gaffe.

:21:47.:21:52.

David Cameron, the model professional, managerial, pragmatic,

:21:53.:21:55.

He believes that his role is to keep the show on the road,

:21:56.:22:07.

number one, and, number two, to improve life for people

:22:08.:22:11.

He's very suspicious of people that have grand ideals.

:22:12.:22:18.

I have to struggle to find much ideology at all with Boris.

:22:19.:22:22.

He's clearly changed his mind about the EU several times.

:22:23.:22:25.

When I worked with him, we reported on the EU together.

:22:26.:22:28.

In public, he'd write the most excoriating pieces about the EU.

:22:29.:22:34.

There is no ideology, which is why it's quite

:22:35.:22:36.

difficult to tell what kind of Prime Minister he would be.

:22:37.:22:41.

Soon, this place will be vacant, as another Tory leader falls

:22:42.:22:44.

Europe is the sword that has split these parallel political lives,

:22:45.:22:51.

even though both men have been accused of inconsistency

:22:52.:22:55.

and opportunism on the whole question throughout their careers.

:22:56.:22:59.

Now the British people have had their say, so is this a final

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chance for Boris to catch up with his rival and complete the last

:23:05.:23:07.

leg of that journey from Eton to Oxford to Number Ten?

:23:08.:23:17.

This referendum has unsettled just about everything.

:23:18.:23:20.

With me now is Iain Duncan Smith, the former Work and Pensions

:23:21.:23:23.

Before we talk to you let's go to Gerald Scarfe. You are making

:23:24.:23:33.

progress on the cartoons. I am working on one of my favourites,

:23:34.:23:36.

Farage, he is wonderful material. He has Cameron in a glass of beer and

:23:37.:23:41.

saying bottoms up. No one would have believed a while back that Farage

:23:42.:23:46.

would be the victor and Cameron defeated. I don't want to lose him,

:23:47.:23:51.

he is good material. You want to keep him there? I am always for

:23:52.:23:54.

keeping the bad ones in tlshgs they're the best material. You have

:23:55.:23:56.

a few more weeks. Iain Duncan Smith, welcome to the programme. Thank you

:23:57.:24:00.

for joining us. First of all, on this Tory leadership, let's remember

:24:01.:24:04.

it's no longer a bit of gossip about who might replace your party leader,

:24:05.:24:08.

this is about who has power in this country within weeks who is the next

:24:09.:24:13.

Prime Minister of this country. Is Boris Johnson up to the job? If you

:24:14.:24:17.

are asking me do I think he personally has the attributes and

:24:18.:24:20.

has he displayed those, I think in the course of the campaign a number

:24:21.:24:24.

of questions that people like you were asking about, does he have the

:24:25.:24:32.

ability to focus, can he conduct debates and be cross-examined, you

:24:33.:24:35.

saw he did meet those challenges and the answer to that question is I

:24:36.:24:38.

think yes. Is he going to be the only one to meet those challenges?

:24:39.:24:41.

Absolutely not. There will be others who will step forward. I sense he is

:24:42.:24:44.

not quite your man. There may be others? Having been leader I have to

:24:45.:24:49.

tell you I wish them the best of luck, because I have the t-shirt and

:24:50.:24:52.

the knife stab wounds and everything else. I say, you know, I am taking a

:24:53.:24:57.

pace back, because for me this is all about where do we go next as --

:24:58.:25:02.

as a country? I am less interested in the leadership end of this.

:25:03.:25:06.

People watching may think we have had this fantastic exercise in

:25:07.:25:08.

democracy where they love or hate the result and the next Prime

:25:09.:25:13.

Minister of our country will be chosen purely by whether you pay a

:25:14.:25:16.

Conservative membership fee, does that make you feel uncomfortable?

:25:17.:25:20.

You know as well as I do that a parliamentary democracy mean that is

:25:21.:25:23.

you elect a body of people to form your Government. In other words, a

:25:24.:25:26.

party gets elected and whoever they choose to be their leader becomes

:25:27.:25:30.

the Prime Minister. That is really what the... A bunch of Tory

:25:31.:25:35.

activists will decide the next occupant of Number 10? Now it's a

:25:36.:25:40.

little wider and it goes out wide, my sense is it needs explaining to

:25:41.:25:43.

the public but you are right about the democracy bit. Yesterday was

:25:44.:25:47.

startling, it was fascinating. I think we learned a lot and there is

:25:48.:25:50.

more to learn about what the British public thinks about us. There is

:25:51.:25:54.

also something to learn about the process, people might imagine they

:25:55.:25:57.

voted to get out, therefore, we are out. We are not out of the European

:25:58.:26:02.

Union, are we? There is a lot of steps and a few years to go before

:26:03.:26:07.

we are actually ex-tri-indicated? There are a number of different ways

:26:08.:26:11.

you can approach this. Cameron has put it on hold, he has basically

:26:12.:26:16.

said I am not going to get us out of the EU I will leave it to the next

:26:17.:26:19.

Prime Minister. It's already on hold for months. There are things we can

:26:20.:26:22.

get on with immediately. Whatever the process that we go through we

:26:23.:26:26.

need to start defining that. It's important for us to bring together a

:26:27.:26:33.

cross-party group of people and some experts from outside, legal experts

:26:34.:26:37.

and experts from business, etc, to be able to start to put together a

:26:38.:26:42.

team that says look this is the best process and these are the best

:26:43.:26:45.

prospects and at least we can get going with that now, notwithstanding

:26:46.:26:48.

the fact there is a leadership election on, that process should

:26:49.:26:51.

begin and I very much want to help make that happen. Yet there will be

:26:52.:26:55.

people in the House of Commons, people in the House of Lords who say

:26:56.:26:58.

there is no majority in this place, parliament, for getting out, we want

:26:59.:27:02.

to do as much as we can to make this as difficult as we can and you know

:27:03.:27:05.

what we will get inspiration from Iain Duncan Smith because he made

:27:06.:27:08.

life hell for John Major when he disagreed with him on Europe. We are

:27:09.:27:13.

going to do it now. We will cause trouble. Up to them really. You

:27:14.:27:17.

know, like everything else they had a referendum, it was arguably the

:27:18.:27:20.

biggest vote that we have had in this country in terms of a single

:27:21.:27:24.

question. I like to think and the Prime Minister said this originally,

:27:25.:27:28.

this is not an advisory referendum, it was an absolute decision by the

:27:29.:27:33.

British people, 4%, over a million-and-a-half votes, all I

:27:34.:27:36.

would say to colleagues in the House of Commons of course that's their

:27:37.:27:39.

decision. They're free to do what they like. Wye say the decision was

:27:40.:27:42.

to leave the European Union, the question is now what does that look

:27:43.:27:45.

like and we have to present that to the public. Do you worry that

:27:46.:27:51.

expectations are simply too high, there is this uncomfortable figure,

:27:52.:27:55.

?350 million that most people accept was never true, that amount of money

:27:56.:27:59.

was never sent to the EU, there is an expectation immigration will come

:28:00.:28:03.

down, the truth is it won't come down soon however quickly you get us

:28:04.:28:08.

out of the EU. Do you worry this air of rebellion we have seen may get

:28:09.:28:11.

worse when people say what's happened? Nothing has got better?

:28:12.:28:15.

No, because I think the main point now is the British public have asked

:28:16.:28:20.

to us do something, they've told us they've made a decision. I think

:28:21.:28:25.

it's for politicians to recognise two factors. First of all, the

:28:26.:28:29.

election process yesterday turned up something really quite startling and

:28:30.:28:33.

important for us beyond even the EU referendum point. What has happened

:28:34.:28:37.

is that British politics has become incredibly distant from the people

:28:38.:28:40.

it's meant to work for and govern. I have said this for sometime. What we

:28:41.:28:44.

saw, for example, on the housing estates yesterday, we had 80%

:28:45.:28:48.

turnouts in housing estates. Even when the Labour Government was

:28:49.:28:50.

elected we have never seen figures like that. If you don't deliver what

:28:51.:28:55.

they want, which is a cut in immigration they'll come for you.

:28:56.:29:00.

You have to deliver the terms of our departure from the EU and on that

:29:01.:29:04.

everything else hinges. Who governs is the key to migration, the key to

:29:05.:29:08.

money and it's the key to the future of the economy. That's the critical

:29:09.:29:12.

bit. If they try and delay it too long that's what they'll provoke. We

:29:13.:29:15.

need to get on with it. Thank you very much.

:29:16.:29:18.

Anna Soubry, the Business Minister and Remain supporter,

:29:19.:29:20.

I need to start by asking you that question you are never supposed to

:29:21.:29:33.

ask in my job, how does it feel? I suspect you are gutted. Oh, yeah. I

:29:34.:29:40.

think it a very sad day, not only because of the result but also the

:29:41.:29:44.

resignation of my Prime Minister. I'm a big fan of my Prime Minister,

:29:45.:29:49.

David Cameron. I don't share kitchen suppers with him but I have got to

:29:50.:29:54.

know him and to admire him. I think we are much poorer in our country

:29:55.:29:59.

for him resigning. It's a bad day. A lot of people have contacted me,

:30:00.:30:03.

their daughters, their friends, to say that as a generation they feel

:30:04.:30:08.

their future has been disturbed, if not stolen, by an older generation.

:30:09.:30:13.

I think a lot of people are very upset, especially younger people. Do

:30:14.:30:18.

you fight on or do you simply have to say, we fought, we lost, we have

:30:19.:30:24.

to accept the verdict, or is there a fight for some sort of European role

:30:25.:30:32.

for Britain? I accept the result and respect the wishes of the people and

:30:33.:30:36.

we have to move on. Mark Carney has done a grand job as governor of the

:30:37.:30:39.

Bank of England by stabilising the markets. There is more to be done to

:30:40.:30:44.

put the confidence back for his business but also a healing process

:30:45.:30:49.

needs to take place. Forgive me, but I have steak tonight, because I

:30:50.:30:54.

would much rather be back in my constituency, where there was a

:30:55.:31:00.

tribute at 6:30pm to Jo Cox. -- I have stayed. One of the problems

:31:01.:31:04.

today was that the debate in politics has been to London centric.

:31:05.:31:09.

The media needs to get out of London and listen to what people are

:31:10.:31:13.

thinking and saying. That is where I was during all this. I foresaw much

:31:14.:31:19.

of this, and now I have experienced a situation in our country which I

:31:20.:31:23.

haven't seen since it was the 70s and I was a student in Birmingham

:31:24.:31:28.

and then Hackney, people talking about race, immigrants in a

:31:29.:31:31.

derogatory way, and I haven't seen that in 40 years. We've got to stop

:31:32.:31:37.

preying on prejudice and fuelling fear. That's what's happened. Now

:31:38.:31:42.

we've got to put back that great value of Britishness, which is

:31:43.:31:45.

tolerance, and that must be achieved by all politicians working together

:31:46.:31:51.

in that big a good. Could Boris Johnson BV to do that or do you need

:31:52.:31:56.

to find somebody else, because you think he is guilty of playing the

:31:57.:32:00.

immigration card? There is not one person... Only one person becomes

:32:01.:32:06.

Prime Minister, in a few weeks. Is he up to the job? I am absolutely

:32:07.:32:13.

not interested any more at this stage in talking about

:32:14.:32:16.

personalities. That is what bedevilled this EU debate, is that

:32:17.:32:21.

it became about personalities, and it was, who got the star rating here

:32:22.:32:25.

and who was going for the leadership by taking a slug out of my Prime

:32:26.:32:30.

Minister. That is one reason we lost the debate, because we never had the

:32:31.:32:33.

real debate about the issues, the future of our nation, what they

:32:34.:32:38.

wanted us to be. That is why, from my point of view, it was so

:32:39.:32:42.

important that we remained and continued to change the EU. That

:32:43.:32:47.

they never took place and it became a debate about immigration, and it

:32:48.:32:50.

hasn't been our finest hour. We need to put it behind us, to move forward

:32:51.:32:55.

and unite communities. I can't tell you some of the things I have seen

:32:56.:32:59.

in the last few weeks, names that have been shouted out to me, called

:33:00.:33:03.

a traitor and worse. People saying, these immigrants, get these

:33:04.:33:08.

immigrants out. We've got to make the case for immigration. These --

:33:09.:33:15.

this hasn't been done. You sound rather frightened about the

:33:16.:33:17.

divisions that have opened up in our society. Sorry, you broke up. You

:33:18.:33:24.

sound frightened about the divisions that have opened up in our society.

:33:25.:33:30.

Yes, I am very, very concerned, but we can heal it, because we've done

:33:31.:33:34.

it in the past. We now need a positive case to be made for

:33:35.:33:39.

immigration. If you tell people the decade as politicians, not me, I

:33:40.:33:43.

might say, that there is something bad about immigration, they will

:33:44.:33:46.

vote in the way that they have. We need to make a positive case for the

:33:47.:33:51.

great integration immigrants have made our society, economy and

:33:52.:33:52.

culture. You're watching The Big Decision

:33:53.:33:54.

with Nick Robinson, a special programme on the vote to leave

:33:55.:33:56.

the European Union. Vote Leave won the referendum

:33:57.:33:59.

with 51.9% of the vote. Scotland and Northern

:34:00.:34:01.

Ireland to remain. The Prime Minister will leave

:34:02.:34:07.

office later this year. He said that someone else needs to

:34:08.:34:09.

lead the negotiations over Brexit. And still to come, Fergal Keane

:34:10.:34:14.

is in Northern Ireland as Sinn Fein call for a new referendum

:34:15.:34:19.

on leaving the UK. He reports from what will soon be

:34:20.:34:30.

the UK's only land border with the EU.

:34:31.:34:31.

Well, both sides were agreed on one thing -

:34:32.:34:33.

there is no going back from a vote to leave.

:34:34.:34:35.

And that will affect one group of people perhaps

:34:36.:34:37.

more than any other - the young - who will now plan

:34:38.:34:40.

and live their lives as British citizens outside the EU.

:34:41.:34:43.

According to YouGov, 75% of 18 to 24-year-olds voted to remain.

:34:44.:34:46.

Elaine Dunkley has been to Birmingham, a city

:34:47.:34:48.

that voted to leave, to talk to a generation that

:34:49.:34:50.

Birmingham, a city which has the youngest population in Europe.

:34:51.:35:02.

40% of people here are under the age of 25.

:35:03.:35:07.

The referendum, a chance to shape their vision of the future.

:35:08.:35:11.

Democracy has decided that their future is best served

:35:12.:35:14.

Are you surprised that Birmingham voted to leave the European Union?

:35:15.:35:24.

That's the saddest part of the whole thing, you look

:35:25.:35:29.

at the whole country and go, wow, it's a massive decision,

:35:30.:35:34.

the biggest decision we'll ever make, but that the city I have

:35:35.:35:38.

called home for the last 23 years has voted a majority leave,

:35:39.:35:43.

I was upset we didn't come out in the droves of us that are living

:35:44.:35:50.

there to say that as the stats show, most of us want to remain.

:35:51.:35:54.

I'm in the middle and I think the decision has been rushed.

:35:55.:35:59.

I voted leave because A, sovereignty, but B, I think there's

:36:00.:36:02.

I think it will be a case of short-term

:36:03.:36:09.

As someone, I run a business and my head was conflicted,

:36:10.:36:14.

I voted with my heart, I voted remain because I thought

:36:15.:36:17.

that was the best thing for the economy and the country

:36:18.:36:20.

but there are arguments for leave, and for the economy,

:36:21.:36:23.

this allows us to trade with China and India, these huge markets.

:36:24.:36:30.

Do you fear for your future job prospects?

:36:31.:36:33.

I think it's got grave consequences and I worry about prospects

:36:34.:36:36.

of buying a home and interest rates and everything else with it.

:36:37.:36:42.

It affects every single aspect of our lives.

:36:43.:36:47.

What were your reasons and how do you feel now?

:36:48.:36:53.

I personally think it will give us so much more control and it

:36:54.:36:58.

will also decrease the chances of terrorist attacks and we don't

:36:59.:37:03.

know who's coming in, we don't know who everyone,

:37:04.:37:06.

The point about the terrorist attacks, a lot of terrorists

:37:07.:37:13.

are home-grown terrorists so we don't know what we're

:37:14.:37:15.

Like this gentleman said, our forefathers, we are immigrants.

:37:16.:37:19.

Birmingham is multicultural and diverse and I'm surprised

:37:20.:37:23.

we didn't vote, everyone voted on Facebook but no one seemed

:37:24.:37:26.

You're from Poland so you couldn't vote but you've been

:37:27.:37:32.

How do you feel because a lot of the discussion has been

:37:33.:37:36.

about people like yourself from eastern Europe?

:37:37.:37:38.

I feel unwelcome, which is shocking because I've never

:37:39.:37:42.

A few months ago it started to be really awkward to say I'm Polish,

:37:43.:37:51.

it started to be really uncomfortable and it's not

:37:52.:37:54.

just my experiences, it's also the experience

:37:55.:37:57.

I think we're talking about immigration quite a lot

:37:58.:38:02.

but at our age demographic, I don't think that's an influence.

:38:03.:38:05.

We live with people, we are multicultural people,

:38:06.:38:09.

so we thought it was mainly about our future.

:38:10.:38:13.

Nobody is talking about our future, nobody did, it was about the issues

:38:14.:38:16.

This idea of, we don't know what's going to happen, this goes back

:38:17.:38:21.

to what we were saying about wanting more information,

:38:22.:38:23.

was it done too quickly, and we have to remember

:38:24.:38:26.

Would you prefer to live in a different society?

:38:27.:38:33.

The list of questions about the future is long

:38:34.:38:35.

Brexit will be a brave new world for a generation that has always

:38:36.:38:40.

If one issue has decided the result of this referendum,

:38:41.:38:49.

it's immigration - so claimed Ukip leader

:38:50.:38:51.

Nigel Farage in his moment of triumph this morning.

:38:52.:38:55.

The Remain campaign, he suggested, was unable to come up with an answer

:38:56.:38:58.

for voters unhappy with the freedom of movement, a freedom which has

:38:59.:39:01.

seen millions of EU migrants, many of them from Poland,

:39:02.:39:04.

Our correspondent Matthew Price reports now from Warsaw to see

:39:05.:39:11.

There was little today here on the other side of the water

:39:12.:39:20.

to suggest that change of such a seismic nature had come.

:39:21.:39:23.

It was a day for relaxing in the intense heat and yet...

:39:24.:39:28.

Goodbye, Great Britain, was the news on the radio

:39:29.:39:34.

Among the hundreds of thousands working in the UK is Igor,

:39:35.:39:41.

He heads back to London with his team for another job this weekend.

:39:42.:39:48.

Do you think this vote changes anything for Polish workers?

:39:49.:39:50.

Yes, it will change many Polish workers, many of them will stay

:39:51.:39:56.

in England because they are good qualified, they make

:39:57.:39:59.

Not for them, not for their cheifs but for England.

:40:00.:40:10.

For eastern Europe, released in 1989 from the shackles of half

:40:11.:40:18.

a century of Soviet rule, joining the EU was seen

:40:19.:40:20.

at the moment they finally entered the European family.

:40:21.:40:25.

And they've benefited, with freedom of movement

:40:26.:40:29.

With so many Poles living in the UK, this nation arguably has more

:40:30.:40:34.

to lose than any other because of Britain's

:40:35.:40:36.

It's a decision which has implications for the whole

:40:37.:40:41.

of the EU, implications about the bloc's future direction,

:40:42.:40:45.

indeed its very survival, and a decision which marks the start

:40:46.:40:49.

of a process which could well make it far more difficult for people

:40:50.:40:54.

from countries like this to come to Britain to live and to work.

:40:55.:40:59.

A nurse, 32, she wanted to move her family to Britain.

:41:00.:41:10.

She already has a job lined up in a private hospital.

:41:11.:41:14.

We are going there for him, only for him, to provide him

:41:15.:41:21.

with a future, opportunities for the future, and now I'm worried

:41:22.:41:27.

because he is Polish and maybe somebody will not like him.

:41:28.:41:34.

And take a peek at Dominika's timeline.

:41:35.:41:38.

The non-British EU friends that she made when she worked

:41:39.:41:40.

in the UK are all worried, as is Dominika herself,

:41:41.:41:44.

I somehow didn't want to believe this would happen.

:41:45.:41:53.

And yes, I do feel sorry for all the Poles because for

:41:54.:41:58.

Like at this time, they are actually not really welcomed.

:41:59.:42:07.

The referendum campaign itself established few certainties.

:42:08.:42:11.

Now the uncertainties unleashed by the decision

:42:12.:42:14.

to leave have spread - spread across the EU,

:42:15.:42:18.

With me now are Daniel Hannan, the pro-Leave Conservative

:42:19.:42:29.

MEP, and also Ed Balls, Labour's former Shadow Chancellor.

:42:30.:42:43.

Good evening. Do you agree, Ed Balls, even though you don't agree

:42:44.:42:50.

with him on the outcome, do you agree with Nigel Farage that it was

:42:51.:42:54.

immigration that did it, people's anxiety that led them to vote out?

:42:55.:43:00.

The immigration issue was not faced up to in the campaign or before, and

:43:01.:43:05.

that was a real problem. In the end, it was very important in deciding

:43:06.:43:09.

the vote. These issues go back five, ten years. Globalisation has been

:43:10.:43:15.

happening to a country like ours, we had a huge financial crisis, we have

:43:16.:43:20.

had a squeeze on wages, because people find it hard to get good

:43:21.:43:24.

jobs, and then we have had migration, in Europe but in other

:43:25.:43:29.

countries as well on a scale none of us anticipated. The reality is that

:43:30.:43:33.

we have not faced up to that as a political class. When people said

:43:34.:43:36.

they wanted to control it wasn't that they were saying, close the

:43:37.:43:40.

borders, but they wanted it to be managed, and it was not managed

:43:41.:43:44.

properly enough, and that is a great feeling. Daniel Hannan, now you have

:43:45.:43:50.

won it, and I don't want to spoil your big day... I have been building

:43:51.:43:55.

up to it for 20 years. There is a danger that people might think, we

:43:56.:43:59.

are out, immigration will come down now, we will be happier because our

:44:00.:44:03.

wages will go up, and it will not be like that. It won't, but people

:44:04.:44:08.

understand there will not be anything immediate and radical.

:44:09.:44:12.

Nothing changes until Brexit comes into effect. That could be two,

:44:13.:44:17.

three years, who knows? Even then, the day that we formally leave looks

:44:18.:44:23.

just like the day before. That is the daily diversions can begin. The

:44:24.:44:28.

day that we leave, all the technical standards we have been celebrated

:44:29.:44:31.

are all still there. We can start to get rid of them. That is the

:44:32.:44:37.

favourite one side or the other can begin to

:44:38.:44:43.

There isn't just that delay. If you were back at the Treasury people

:44:44.:44:48.

would be saying to you we need migrants to run the businesses

:44:49.:44:52.

around here. The reality is now for the Government, this is a very, very

:44:53.:44:56.

difficult task they face over the next two years to try and get a deal

:44:57.:45:01.

which is a good deal for Britain and is going to require all parties to

:45:02.:45:06.

be part of that. The reality is that if we leave and we are now going to

:45:07.:45:10.

leave, on what terms? In particular, that access to the single market. I

:45:11.:45:14.

have always believed we need to move away from free movement but at the

:45:15.:45:19.

moment if we go for a Norway type deal or Switzerland, and we have

:45:20.:45:22.

access to the single market, at the moment that will be on the basis of

:45:23.:45:25.

free movement. I don't think that's going to be acceptable after this

:45:26.:45:28.

campaign. What kind of deal can be struck? I want to apologise to

:45:29.:45:33.

people if you are having a strange effect on the sound we are here too,

:45:34.:45:37.

so apologies. Bear with us if you would. If you switched off all EU

:45:38.:45:44.

immigration like that now, net migration would still be massively

:45:45.:45:47.

over the Government's target because we allow so many people in from

:45:48.:45:51.

outside Europe. That's true. It builds up expectations. Well, I am

:45:52.:45:54.

not sure that's right. I keep hearing this thing about built up

:45:55.:45:58.

expectations. We have never said there is going to be some radical

:45:59.:46:02.

decline, that we are going to shut the door, let alone the status of

:46:03.:46:06.

anyone here affected, that's completely off the table. You think

:46:07.:46:11.

people who voted yesterday thought actually immigration won't really

:46:12.:46:14.

change? They wanted control. What they wanted was some sense that

:46:15.:46:18.

ultimately we are in charge of roughly who comes in and roughly in

:46:19.:46:22.

what numbers. That's a theoretical concept you are saying. They wanted

:46:23.:46:27.

a cut. I have been on that campaign trail longer than almost anyone. I

:46:28.:46:31.

have been making this speech to audiences all over and at every one

:46:32.:46:39.

I say if you think - if you think we are getting rid of the Polish -

:46:40.:46:43.

people understand that. I am sure Dan's been saying that but other

:46:44.:46:45.

members of the Leave campaign have been saying the opposite. It's been

:46:46.:46:52.

a nasty campaign partly because it's been an anti-outside world,

:46:53.:46:54.

anti-immigrant campaign. Dan is right, people want it to be managed,

:46:55.:46:58.

they don't want to shut borders but promises made by the Out campaign

:46:59.:47:02.

have been we are going to put more money in the NHS and bring migration

:47:03.:47:06.

down radically, we are going to keep the benefits being part of the

:47:07.:47:09.

global economy while being outside the EU, they've got to deliver and

:47:10.:47:14.

it's going to be very hard indeed. We will control... That's not what

:47:15.:47:18.

people heard. I don't want to build up expectations but that will

:47:19.:47:21.

happen. You are still relatively young both of you butter veterans of

:47:22.:47:27.

this. Is it over -- but you are veterans of this. Is it over?

:47:28.:47:34.

Do you believe this is it for a generation? Well, I think this is it

:47:35.:47:38.

but I also think that there is a responsibility on us as the winning

:47:39.:47:42.

side to recognise that it was a very narrow margin. 48% of people voted

:47:43.:47:47.

to Remain. Including two of the four constituent nations of the UK. We

:47:48.:47:51.

can't pretend that didn't happen. We need to carry as many people with us

:47:52.:47:54.

and listen to the concerns of the Remain voters and that means that a

:47:55.:48:01.

lot of the things we are going to will remain in place. It's not going

:48:02.:48:04.

to be sudden and it will be done with the agreement... I think the

:48:05.:48:07.

magnitude of this decision is going to sink in over the next few months.

:48:08.:48:12.

It's been decided, it may well be in coming weeks our European partners

:48:13.:48:16.

will say actually for Britain we will give you restrictions on free

:48:17.:48:19.

movement. Unfortunately, it's going to be too late. I don't think the

:48:20.:48:22.

British people will be in a mood to change their mind. Thank you for

:48:23.:48:28.

joining us. We have covered a huge range of

:48:29.:48:34.

important issues. Northern Ireland noerld is another.

:48:35.:48:36.

Well, Northern Ireland voted to stay in the EU.

:48:37.:48:38.

But the decision taken by the rest of the UK raises the question

:48:39.:48:42.

of whether border controls will have to return between the North

:48:43.:48:44.

and the Republic of Ireland - which, of course, is still part

:48:45.:48:47.

That would inevitably stir memories of the Troubles,

:48:48.:48:50.

And, Sinn Fein today is demanding a referendum

:48:51.:48:53.

Fergal Keane reports from what will become

:48:54.:48:56.

the United Kingdom's land border with the European Union.

:48:57.:49:02.

The army used to call this bandit country,

:49:03.:49:04.

When I reported here during the Troubles it was a place

:49:05.:49:12.

But political compromise and EU money helped

:49:13.:49:21.

The guns vanished, the security bases closed.

:49:22.:49:28.

Thanks to the peace process, physical manifestations

:49:29.:49:34.

of the security presence along the border is no longer necessary,

:49:35.:49:37.

but because of Brexit, the Irish Republic now becomes this

:49:38.:49:41.

country's land border with Europe, with unknown political

:49:42.:49:44.

The republican dead are still invoked to support Sinn Fein's

:49:45.:49:53.

campaign for a united Ireland and today the party seized

:49:54.:49:55.

on the Brexit vote to say the time had come for a border referendum.

:49:56.:50:02.

Roisin Mulgrew is a local politician and businesswoman.

:50:03.:50:05.

We have always felt that as a 32-county Ireland

:50:06.:50:07.

We can attract investors and people need to sit

:50:08.:50:12.

An economic rather than nationalist argument?

:50:13.:50:16.

Close to the border, Protestant farmer Roy Harper has

:50:17.:50:22.

Ten of his neighbours were killed in a sectarian massacre nearby.

:50:23.:50:30.

Prosperity and peace should have made him a natural remain voter

:50:31.:50:33.

but he is celebrating, glad to be rid of red tape, he says.

:50:34.:50:37.

We're told there's going to be a lot of money available because we're not

:50:38.:50:46.

sending it into the EU coffers, but I don't think the Troubles,

:50:47.:50:49.

I sincerely hope not, but I couldn't see any connection

:50:50.:50:52.

We have Sinn Fein calling for a referendum on the border.

:50:53.:50:57.

A lot of people tell me they would rather be

:50:58.:50:59.

as we are and not be in a united Ireland.

:51:00.:51:01.

That is Catholic people as well as Protestants,

:51:02.:51:08.

a general mix of people, a lot of people don't want anything

:51:09.:51:11.

It was always an ambitious notion that being part of Europe

:51:12.:51:20.

would softed Ulster's battle of identities, especially

:51:21.:51:22.

in working-class communities, but the EU played an important role

:51:23.:51:26.

in supporting peace, not least with money.

:51:27.:51:30.

Where an army base once stood on this peaceline, they built this

:51:31.:51:36.

This class is for young people who lead summer camps

:51:37.:51:47.

for mixed groups of Catholic and Protestant children.

:51:48.:51:49.

What do you feel about what's happened?

:51:50.:51:51.

Our whole future of young people, it's not going to be

:51:52.:51:57.

There won't be a border poll any time soon but in a climate

:51:58.:52:09.

of reviving nationalism in the UK and political uncertainty,

:52:10.:52:11.

the delicate political balance here can be easily upset.

:52:12.:52:21.

With me here is the BBC's World Affairs Editor, John Simpson.

:52:22.:52:27.

You reported on Britain joining what was then the Common Market in 1975.

:52:28.:52:34.

No one conceived back then we would ever leave it again, did they? No,

:52:35.:52:40.

that was it. That was - I mean, there were people who talked darkly

:52:41.:52:46.

about a second referendum and how it had, but it was such a sweeping

:52:47.:52:51.

result, two-thirds to one-third, that it didn't really seem like an

:52:52.:52:55.

issue any longer and Harold Wilson who created the whole idea craftily

:52:56.:53:02.

as he did everything used it to wallop everybody over the head and

:53:03.:53:07.

beat them he hoped into silence, didn't actually work. Referendums

:53:08.:53:13.

never work, as far as I can see. But it stayed for, you know, 40-odd

:53:14.:53:17.

years. But it was a different world. It was a nicer world. People

:53:18.:53:23.

believed what journalists said. They believed what politicians said.

:53:24.:53:30.

Immigration didn't come into it. 41,000 people left Britain in 1975

:53:31.:53:35.

than they came here. We have touched on internal issues, Ireland just now

:53:36.:53:39.

and Scotland before. What about our place in the world, to what extent

:53:40.:53:43.

is the world looking at Britain in a different way tonight from how it

:53:44.:53:49.

was 24 hours ago? A lot of countries are really worried. Worried often

:53:50.:53:54.

for themselves. Germany and France have major reasons to be nervous

:53:55.:54:00.

about their own future, their own unity, who's going to govern them

:54:01.:54:06.

and so forth. Same with Spain, more so in some ways with Spain. America,

:54:07.:54:15.

nervous because this is the end of their 50-year concern to get Britain

:54:16.:54:20.

into Europe. So they got all their allies in one basket. Suddenly one's

:54:21.:54:26.

jumped. That's not going to be played well in Washington. We still

:54:27.:54:31.

have some of the basic strengths. We still have our seat on the Security

:54:32.:54:34.

Council and we will keep it. We are still in NATO. But, there is a

:54:35.:54:42.

difference now in that there is no longer groups of countries coming

:54:43.:54:45.

together starting, starting to be just the opposite. Thank you very

:54:46.:54:46.

much. Well, this campaign has surely given

:54:47.:54:48.

cartoonist Gerald Scarfe some of the finest material

:54:49.:54:50.

ever for inspiration. How have you been getting on? This

:54:51.:54:58.

is the Farage one you saw earlier with Cameron in the beer glass and

:54:59.:55:04.

he is saying bottoms up. Farage, of course, was working on immigration.

:55:05.:55:10.

This one is called Fear of Turkey. A huge grin on his face constantly. Is

:55:11.:55:17.

it a grin or grimace? He has seen them all off. Cameron called Ukip

:55:18.:55:25.

fruitcakes. It's all gone pear-shaped here. Still with a

:55:26.:55:31.

smile, though. A worried smile, yes. Still trying, poor guy. This is the

:55:32.:55:35.

falling pound. Presumably they'll befalling out the window here. There

:55:36.:55:41.

is one now. We shouldn't laugh. People are getting anxious.

:55:42.:55:45.

Theresa May or may not. And Boris, of course. Yes, he is there. There!

:55:46.:55:57.

I always draw Boris as a clown. He has told us all along he is a clown.

:55:58.:56:00.

He will have the last laugh? Who knows? Looks like it, although the

:56:01.:56:10.

last one, now Humpty has to put it all together again. Thank you very

:56:11.:56:11.

much. That's all for this

:56:12.:56:13.

special programme - and there's another special

:56:14.:56:14.

programme coming up - Question Time this Sunday

:56:15.:56:16.

at 10.35pm in Birmingham. If you want to be in the audience

:56:17.:56:18.

please go to the website - Few who voted yesterday believed

:56:19.:56:22.

this day would come. Few whose job it is to see

:56:23.:56:25.

into the future predicted it. This, though, is a day

:56:26.:56:29.

from where there can be no turning back, a day which has

:56:30.:56:32.

changed the country. We'll be living with

:56:33.:56:34.

the consequences for years to come. Hello, I'm Sangita Myska

:56:35.:56:47.

with your 90 second update. The UK has voted to leave

:56:48.:57:16.

the European Union.

:57:17.:57:21.

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