Browse content similar to 10/09/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
Line | From | To | |
---|---|---|---|
Well Chancellor, can I welcome you to the House | :00:00. | :00:20. | |
Congratulations on your appointment and I hope you've got over your jet | :00:21. | :00:30. | |
I gather you want to make a few opening remarks? | :00:31. | :00:34. | |
Well, I just, with your permission, wanted to make a brief statement, | :00:35. | :00:40. | |
if I may, to take advantage of the fact that I am in Parliament, | :00:41. | :00:44. | |
to inform Parliament that I have decided to give my first | :00:45. | :00:49. | |
Autumn Statement to Parliament on the 23rd of November 2016. | :00:50. | :00:57. | |
The Autumn Statement will set out the Government's economic and fiscal | :00:58. | :01:01. | |
plans, based on the latest forecasts from the Office for Budget | :01:02. | :01:04. | |
In the run-up to the Autumn Statement, I will be engaging | :01:05. | :01:10. | |
with Britain's business leaders, employee representatives, | :01:11. | :01:11. | |
through a series of industry round tables, meetings and visits, | :01:12. | :01:15. | |
and of course, I will engage with Parliamentary colleagues. | :01:16. | :01:17. | |
I'm sure a number of the topics we will want to ask you about today | :01:18. | :01:26. | |
will of course be relevant to the Autumn Statement, | :01:27. | :01:31. | |
and we are very keen to hear your thinking | :01:32. | :01:33. | |
and your general approach to some of the key issues. | :01:34. | :01:38. | |
Perhaps I can start off though with housing, | :01:39. | :01:40. | |
which as you know we published a report on housing just | :01:41. | :01:43. | |
Our conclusion was that in order to meet demand, | :01:44. | :01:49. | |
catch up on unmet demand, and also to moderate house price | :01:50. | :01:54. | |
rises and make house prices over time more affordable to young people | :01:55. | :01:58. | |
who are seeking to buy homes, we would need to build 300,000 homes | :01:59. | :02:03. | |
a year, which is about 50% above the government's current target. | :02:04. | :02:11. | |
In order to achieve that, local authorities would have to play | :02:12. | :02:14. | |
And there would need to be a shift of emphasis away from houses | :02:15. | :02:22. | |
for sale to social housing, to meet a larger need in that area. | :02:23. | :02:28. | |
And we would very much welcome your thoughts | :02:29. | :02:30. | |
on those conclusions, and in particular, what arrangements | :02:31. | :02:35. | |
you could contemplate to enable local authorities to take advantage | :02:36. | :02:41. | |
of the historically low long-term interest rates, to invest in social | :02:42. | :02:45. | |
housing in partnership with the private sector | :02:46. | :02:47. | |
Which of course would generate income, over a considerable | :02:48. | :03:00. | |
I welcome the central recommendation of your report, | :03:01. | :03:03. | |
which is that we need to increase housing supply. | :03:04. | :03:07. | |
The government is committed to increasing house-building. | :03:08. | :03:13. | |
It won't surprise you to know that this is an area | :03:14. | :03:16. | |
Both because it goes to the heart of the Prime Minister's agenda | :03:17. | :03:24. | |
of creating an economy that works for everybody. | :03:25. | :03:33. | |
Too few people are able to get onto the housing ladder, | :03:34. | :03:38. | |
and too few people are able to access | :03:39. | :03:40. | |
appropriate housing, whether by purchase or for rent. | :03:41. | :03:42. | |
There are a number of aspects to that problem. | :03:43. | :03:49. | |
It is also, of course, a macro economic problem. | :03:50. | :03:52. | |
It has a huge impact on the overall functioning of the economy, | :03:53. | :03:56. | |
It's an area that has our full attention at the moment. | :03:57. | :04:01. | |
In due course, we will announce how we intend to proceed. | :04:02. | :04:06. | |
But I can confirm that we share the committee's analysis, | :04:07. | :04:10. | |
that there needs to be an increase in the rate of house building. | :04:11. | :04:17. | |
We want to see a diversity of tenure types available, and we will bring | :04:18. | :04:21. | |
forward policy announcements in due course. | :04:22. | :04:27. | |
That's all I can really say at the moment. | :04:28. | :04:29. | |
Do you share our recommendation and enthusiasm for local authorities | :04:30. | :04:32. | |
to resume their historic role and play a significant part? | :04:33. | :04:35. | |
And if so, how would they finance that? | :04:36. | :04:41. | |
Because the housing revenue account has some rather curious limits | :04:42. | :04:45. | |
and the way it enables local authorities to build swimming pools, | :04:46. | :04:48. | |
apparently any number of swimming pools, but not build houses, | :04:49. | :04:51. | |
which seems to be a rather perverse outcome of the current rules. | :04:52. | :04:59. | |
There is head room in existing housing revenue account authorities. | :05:00. | :05:05. | |
There is, I'm told, ?3.4 billion of borrowing headroom | :05:06. | :05:08. | |
underneath the cap, and a ?300 million extension to HRA borrowing | :05:09. | :05:18. | |
limits that was announced in AS13 and was undersubscribed. | :05:19. | :05:20. | |
I'm not convinced it is lack of access to borrowing | :05:21. | :05:23. | |
that is preventing local authorities from building. | :05:24. | :05:26. | |
We will certainly look at local authorities, | :05:27. | :05:32. | |
registered social landlords, and the private sector, | :05:33. | :05:38. | |
and indeed, the corporate sector, as being potentially parties who can | :05:39. | :05:41. | |
play a part in dealing with the country's overall housing needs. | :05:42. | :05:48. | |
But I think we all know that this is not primarily | :05:49. | :05:52. | |
It's a land availability challenge that we have to address in order | :05:53. | :06:00. | |
to bring down house prices to affordable levels, | :06:01. | :06:02. | |
Well, that wasn't the evidence that we heard. | :06:03. | :06:14. | |
There is a large number of permission homes granted every | :06:15. | :06:17. | |
A great deal of public land which could be pressed into service | :06:18. | :06:22. | |
to be building houses was very slow in becoming available. | :06:23. | :06:27. | |
So again, there is a role for the government there. | :06:28. | :06:30. | |
We felt the Treasury with its new infrastructure | :06:31. | :06:33. | |
commission, would be able to play a role of driving | :06:34. | :06:36. | |
The Housing Implementation Task Force, which oversees the release | :06:37. | :06:41. | |
of public sector land, is attended by the Chief Secretary. | :06:42. | :06:46. | |
I have some experience of this from my days as Secretary | :06:47. | :06:49. | |
of State for Defence, the biggest release of land | :06:50. | :06:57. | |
The challenge is that many of the sites that government | :06:58. | :07:06. | |
has available for release are very, very large strategic sites. | :07:07. | :07:09. | |
RAF airfields perhaps, quite a long way from | :07:10. | :07:11. | |
They may over time deliver very large numbers of housing units, | :07:12. | :07:15. | |
but they will require very large amounts of infrastructure | :07:16. | :07:20. | |
and inevitably, need phased development. | :07:21. | :07:22. | |
If I could also make a couple of observations, | :07:23. | :07:26. | |
one of the challenges in addressing the discrepancy between planning | :07:27. | :07:32. | |
permissions granted and planning permissions built is the tendency | :07:33. | :07:35. | |
of local authorities, and I completely understand why | :07:36. | :07:39. | |
they find it convenient to do so, to meet their housing needs | :07:40. | :07:42. | |
by releasing a small number of very large sites, | :07:43. | :07:46. | |
often sites that need very significant infrastructure | :07:47. | :07:48. | |
Inevitably, that leads to a lack of competition in local markets | :07:49. | :07:58. | |
because you have effectively a monopoly supplier controlling | :07:59. | :08:00. | |
And the other point is that there is not any such thing | :08:01. | :08:08. | |
Housing markets are highly local, and there is overall a mismatch | :08:09. | :08:14. | |
between where the planning permissions are being granted | :08:15. | :08:17. | |
and where the hotspots of demand exist. | :08:18. | :08:21. | |
The reality is that we have to address some very challenging | :08:22. | :08:28. | |
questions of how we deliver increased housing availability | :08:29. | :08:32. | |
in the areas where the high levels of housing demand exist. | :08:33. | :08:38. | |
As you go through your consultation process for the Autumn Statement, | :08:39. | :08:44. | |
I would humbly suggest you should consider discussing this with local | :08:45. | :08:50. | |
authorities, who show a great deal of enthusiasm to get building. | :08:51. | :08:55. | |
They obviously have a great deal of local knowledge but they don't | :08:56. | :08:59. | |
have the finance to do it, and feel that is a pressing pressure | :09:00. | :09:03. | |
that they want the Treasury to address. | :09:04. | :09:12. | |
Chancellor, I want to start by asking you what you said | :09:13. | :09:27. | |
about resetting economic policy. | :09:28. | :09:28. | |
I'm interested in your view on the balance between what monetary | :09:29. | :09:31. | |
policy can do and what fiscal policy can do. | :09:32. | :09:33. | |
In particular, do you accept that monetary policy has possibly | :09:34. | :09:36. | |
run its course in this country and probably in Europe as well, | :09:37. | :09:39. | |
and that as interest rates come near zero or below zero in some | :09:40. | :09:43. | |
cases, if you really want to put money into the economy, | :09:44. | :09:46. | |
then it's fiscal policy that is likely | :09:47. | :09:48. | |
I wonder if I can just draw you on where you stand | :09:49. | :09:57. | |
The comment I made was that we would have an opportunity | :09:58. | :10:01. | |
By which I was referring to the fact that the Prime Minister has made | :10:02. | :10:11. | |
clear that we will no longer be seeking | :10:12. | :10:16. | |
to reach a fiscal surplus in 2019-2020. | :10:17. | :10:20. | |
Clearly, we need to put a new fiscal framework in place to guide policy | :10:21. | :10:24. | |
Clearly, monetary policy is the remit of the Bank of England, | :10:25. | :10:29. | |
and I don't want to say anything that might undermine their clear | :10:30. | :10:33. | |
responsibility and independence in this area. | :10:34. | :10:43. | |
The governor has made it quite clear that he thinks he does | :10:44. | :10:46. | |
have further ammunition in the bank's locker. | :10:47. | :10:50. | |
Not only in terms of rate reduction, but in terms | :10:51. | :10:53. | |
I think that monetary policy can and should operate alongside fiscal | :10:54. | :11:03. | |
The bank was the first mover, if you like, after the shock | :11:04. | :11:09. | |
to the economy of the referendum exit vote. | :11:10. | :11:13. | |
I will have an opportunity on the 23rd of November to consider | :11:14. | :11:17. | |
whether a fiscal response is appropriate, alongside that | :11:18. | :11:19. | |
And I think both policy levers are valid and have a role to play. | :11:20. | :11:31. | |
I appreciate the point you made about a reset. | :11:32. | :11:34. | |
The government was never going to hit that particular target, | :11:35. | :11:36. | |
I just want to draw you on the fiscal aspect. | :11:37. | :11:49. | |
I am not asking you to say what you will do. | :11:50. | :11:52. | |
Would you be prepared, or do you think it would be right | :11:53. | :11:55. | |
that if we are wanting to put more money into the economy to get | :11:56. | :11:59. | |
the economy going and put the inflation rate up, | :12:00. | :12:02. | |
it's more likely than not it is fiscal policy that will do it, | :12:03. | :12:05. | |
rather than what is left in the monetary policy locker? | :12:06. | :12:09. | |
I would certainly agree that fiscal policy can play a role. | :12:10. | :12:16. | |
In relation to fiscal policy, do you believe that you should be | :12:17. | :12:19. | |
looking at infrastructure projects, targeting tax measures on those | :12:20. | :12:30. | |
who will spend the money, rather than those who will save it. | :12:31. | :12:33. | |
If there is a need at any time to deliver a fiscal stimulus | :12:34. | :12:37. | |
for broader reasons, it has to be well designed. | :12:38. | :12:39. | |
It has to be limited in duration, quick in delivering effect, | :12:40. | :12:42. | |
and given our overall fiscal position, which is still unhealthy, | :12:43. | :12:45. | |
ideally, it will be contributing to the long-term investment needs | :12:46. | :12:50. | |
of the country, contributing to the challenge of raising | :12:51. | :12:52. | |
And therefore, I would hope that in designing a fiscal stimulus, | :12:53. | :13:13. | |
any sensible Chancellor would seek to do as much as possible | :13:14. | :13:16. | |
through investment, that will not only deliver short-term demand | :13:17. | :20:33. | |
about the Bank of England's predictions which were included | :20:34. | :20:41. | |
We were told we would have higher interest rates, technical recession | :20:42. | :20:47. | |
recessions, and employment would go up and House prices would fall. | :20:48. | :20:50. | |
Are you not concerned that the whole question about Q E, | :20:51. | :21:01. | |
that you made clear this morning, now resides | :21:02. | :21:04. | |
which is having a real impact, as Lord Lamont has suggested. | :21:05. | :21:08. | |
I looked at the numbers, and if you look at the House price | :21:09. | :21:17. | |
to earnings ratio from the last quarter of 2012 to the last quarter | :21:18. | :21:28. | |
of 2015, it has increased by 4.2 times to 6.9 times | :21:29. | :21:43. | |
and in Greater London, 5.9 times to 6.12 times. | :21:44. | :21:45. | |
Are you not concerned that Q E is resulting, | :21:46. | :22:02. | |
the latest tranche of Q E will need to be put into final | :22:03. | :22:06. | |
That huge vacuum of money which is based on artificially low | :22:07. | :22:09. | |
interest rates, which would otherwise be invested in jobs | :22:10. | :22:12. | |
and creating a growth in the economy. | :22:13. | :22:15. | |
Have we not actually got to the stage where the bank | :22:16. | :22:18. | |
is effectively running economic policy in a way, | :22:19. | :22:21. | |
which is to the disadvantage to the Government's declared | :22:22. | :22:24. | |
objective to make wider homeownership available, | :22:25. | :22:27. | |
and also enable wealth to be spread more equally, | :22:28. | :22:36. | |
when it's actually taking wealth away from, if I can use | :22:37. | :22:39. | |
the phrase, ordinary, hard-working people, | :22:40. | :22:46. | |
to people who have substantial assets. | :22:47. | :22:55. | |
As Chancellor, shouldn't you get a grip on it? | :22:56. | :23:07. | |
It is the case that Q E is built upon the principle of causing asset | :23:08. | :23:11. | |
I think we could have a long debate about what is happening | :23:12. | :23:15. | |
I have no doubt that in the end, it's about supply, | :23:16. | :23:20. | |
If the supply of land for housing is increased, | :23:21. | :23:23. | |
no amount of monetary inflation is going to force prices to rise | :23:24. | :23:26. | |
The situation we have got in the UK has been, | :23:27. | :23:33. | |
increasing money supply, and very constrained resource | :23:34. | :23:46. | |
Obviously, creating an artificial asset price for inflation. | :23:47. | :23:53. | |
On the wider point, the monetary policy committee obviously has | :23:54. | :23:56. | |
responsibility for monetary policy decisions. | :23:57. | :23:57. | |
But as we've already rehearsed, the governor does require | :23:58. | :24:05. | |
the consent of the Treasury for unconventional monetary stimulus. | :24:06. | :24:18. | |
They can't do it without the Treasury's agreement. | :24:19. | :24:30. | |
I think it would be wrong to characterise this as the bank | :24:31. | :24:34. | |
I was responding to the point you made that you | :24:35. | :24:39. | |
I don't want to comment publicly on a matter | :24:40. | :24:42. | |
which is a responsibility of the monetary policy committee. | :24:43. | :24:45. | |
But I draw attention again that there are no steps of positive | :24:46. | :24:49. | |
easing that the bank can take, without seeking the approval | :24:50. | :24:51. | |
Just on the housing point, finally, and I take your point | :24:52. | :25:01. | |
As you say, it is very complicated, but if the house price to earnings | :25:02. | :25:12. | |
ratio has doubled in three years, in London, that can't just be | :25:13. | :25:16. | |
There are other factors involved here, and similarly, | :25:17. | :25:21. | |
could you address the point about the pension funds? | :25:22. | :25:27. | |
For example, would you consider extending the period, | :25:28. | :25:30. | |
which at the present time companies have got to deal with any deficit | :25:31. | :25:34. | |
Would you consider extending that period, given that we are in | :25:35. | :25:42. | |
a highly than usual period and interest rates | :25:43. | :25:45. | |
yes, I am sorry. I should have answered that question. | :25:46. | :25:55. | |
I did ask the question myself, what has been the impact on funded | :25:56. | :26:00. | |
And the response that I have received, | :26:01. | :26:09. | |
the advice I have received, is that the additional underfunding | :26:10. | :26:12. | |
is not thought likely to give rise to any | :26:13. | :26:14. | |
That there are no pressures for action coming from anywhere | :26:15. | :26:28. | |
because of the fact that this is something that needs to be | :26:29. | :26:32. | |
It doesn't require immediate action, and in the context of the overall | :26:33. | :26:37. | |
pension deficit, it is not a step change. | :26:38. | :26:40. | |
It is also the case that corporations collectively | :26:41. | :26:43. | |
have a very substantial amount of cash | :26:44. | :26:45. | |
in their balance sheets, and so I would challenge the notion | :26:46. | :26:58. | |
that every pound required to close the pension fund deficit is a pound | :26:59. | :27:02. | |
snatched away from investment in productive capacity. | :27:03. | :27:11. | |
It is taken away from cash and balance sheets very often. | :27:12. | :27:18. | |
You talked about that being a role for both fiscal | :27:19. | :27:21. | |
And of course for much of the 1980s, the way this tended to be put | :27:22. | :27:26. | |
was wanting to have a fiscal policy that supported monetary policy. | :27:27. | :27:29. | |
In those days, the job was to get inflation down. | :27:30. | :27:32. | |
Now, the problem seems to be to get inflation back up to the target. | :27:33. | :27:37. | |
Is it not therefore the case, given where we are, | :27:38. | :27:40. | |
that monetary policy does need some support? | :27:41. | :27:44. | |
I mean interest rates must be very close to the limit. | :27:45. | :27:47. | |
We've heard from Lord Lamont about some of the distortions | :27:48. | :27:50. | |
Instead of thinking about this as being two policy instruments, | :27:51. | :28:00. | |
is it not the case that monetary policy really does now | :28:01. | :28:02. | |
That the Bank of England is really running out of room to pursue | :28:03. | :28:09. | |
First of all, the difference in the 1980s was that we did both | :28:10. | :28:17. | |
monetary and fiscal policy at the time. | :28:18. | :28:29. | |
As to your point about the turnaround in inflation, | :28:30. | :28:33. | |
it is important that the Bank of England's inflation target | :28:34. | :28:38. | |
We see inflation too low as being as damaging | :28:39. | :28:47. | |
to the economy in the long term as inflation too high. | :28:48. | :28:49. | |
I can only repeat what the governor has said. | :28:50. | :28:52. | |
He has said that there is further capacity, | :28:53. | :28:54. | |
the bank has further capacity in all three areas. | :28:55. | :28:57. | |
That it has used as levers of monetary policy, | :28:58. | :29:02. | |
that the bank's view of the floor limit on interest rates | :29:03. | :29:05. | |
is a number which is positive, but very close to zero. | :29:06. | :29:09. | |
And therefore, there is more that the Bank believes it can | :29:10. | :29:13. | |
We also clearly, depending on the fiscal rules that we set, | :29:14. | :29:28. | |
can create at Autumn Statement, headroom for fiscal stimulus, | :29:29. | :29:31. | |
if we believe it is appropriate to do so. | :29:32. | :29:36. | |
Indeed, we can create headroom for fiscal stimulus | :29:37. | :29:39. | |
whether we decide that fiscal stimulus is appropriate | :29:40. | :29:41. | |
It would be perfectly possible to design a set of fiscal rules that | :29:42. | :29:48. | |
provides headroom, without necessarily using that | :29:49. | :29:51. | |
Could I press on one aspect of this, in the sense of very | :29:52. | :30:04. | |
Obviously you can't say much more about fiscal policy at this stage, | :30:05. | :30:08. | |
given that we have the Autumn Statement. | :30:09. | :30:10. | |
But do you have any response to the general idea put forward | :30:11. | :30:15. | |
at a time when interest rates are as low as they are, | :30:16. | :30:19. | |
that really the government should avoid this pursuit of off-balance | :30:20. | :30:21. | |
sheet funding which it is tried on a number of occasions, | :30:22. | :30:25. | |
using private finance to do what our public sector projects, | :30:26. | :30:32. | |
and often in more expensive ways than could be done | :30:33. | :30:35. | |
And is this not a time when we should be saying, | :30:36. | :30:39. | |
well, the government is in a very strong position of being able | :30:40. | :30:46. | |
to borrow on its own account and it should not | :30:47. | :30:49. | |
be looking far and wide for various schemes to really lay off | :30:50. | :30:52. | |
the problem about public sector debt measures? | :30:53. | :30:57. | |
I think, in terms of low borrowing costs, and the choice | :30:58. | :31:06. | |
between publicly funded and privately funded... | :31:07. | :31:18. | |
public sector projects, I am talking about. | :31:19. | :31:21. | |
Is never going to revolve around the relative cost of finance | :31:22. | :31:27. | |
because the government's cost of finance will always be cheaper | :31:28. | :31:29. | |
than the private sector's cost of finance. | :31:30. | :31:31. | |
In well-designed off-balance sheet projects, the real worry | :31:32. | :31:34. | |
is transferring risk to the private sector partner. | :31:35. | :31:36. | |
And although there are in theory, ways of transferring some elements | :31:37. | :31:39. | |
of that risk to a private sector contractor partner, | :31:40. | :31:41. | |
for example, while financing on balance sheet, the reality | :31:42. | :31:44. | |
is if you are financing on balance sheet, the risk always bounces back | :31:45. | :31:47. | |
So I think, for me, it's always been the case and remains the case | :31:48. | :31:56. | |
that the argument for off-balance sheet financing has to be | :31:57. | :32:00. | |
constructed around the transfer of risk rather than simply | :32:01. | :32:04. | |
the losing of the inconvenience of the debt going | :32:05. | :32:07. | |
We were looking recently at an issue of the student loan book | :32:08. | :32:19. | |
and the question of the sale of that. | :32:20. | :32:22. | |
And we struggled very hard to see where the risk transfer | :32:23. | :32:25. | |
was that was taking place in this area. | :32:26. | :32:27. | |
And very much thought this seemed to be an approach | :32:28. | :32:29. | |
that was being designed almost entirely to keep | :32:30. | :32:32. | |
Well, I mean the government has a certain borrowing capacity. | :32:33. | :32:41. | |
PSN D as a percentage of GDP is not an irrelevant number. | :32:42. | :32:45. | |
Our policy has been and will remain that where assets in the government | :32:46. | :32:48. | |
balance sheet serve no policy purpose, they should be disposed | :32:49. | :32:51. | |
of in order to create headroom for policy driving investment. | :32:52. | :32:58. | |
And in the case of the student loan book, the policy is achieved | :32:59. | :33:05. | |
without the need to have the asset sitting on the balance sheets | :33:06. | :33:16. | |
by the government, underwriting effectively the expected default | :33:17. | :33:18. | |
rate, the expected non-repayment element of the student loan book. | :33:19. | :33:21. | |
So I think the policy intention to dispose of the student loan book | :33:22. | :33:25. | |
Obviously, the timing of that decision will be subject | :33:26. | :33:29. | |
Just a quick question on the housing market, Chancellor. | :33:30. | :33:45. | |
You believe it is a question of supply and demand. | :33:46. | :33:48. | |
Do you think the government schemes for effectively subsidising | :33:49. | :33:53. | |
homeownership, skew the market in a way that's not helpful? | :33:54. | :34:03. | |
Well, the current range of schemes we have in place is certainly | :34:04. | :34:06. | |
designed specifically to support homeownership. | :34:07. | :34:11. | |
We know that 90% of people aspire to own a home. | :34:12. | :34:14. | |
So in a sense, government policy is responding to the desires | :34:15. | :34:18. | |
and the aspirations of the electorate. | :34:19. | :34:23. | |
But we also know, don't we, that although 90% of people may | :34:24. | :34:29. | |
aspire to own a home, in reality, far less than 90% | :34:30. | :34:35. | |
of people will actually be able to own a home? | :34:36. | :34:39. | |
And it is important that we have a range of tenure types | :34:40. | :34:43. | |
which reflects the reality of the world, not just aspirations. | :34:44. | :34:48. | |
I'm very keen to see structures like shared ownership and rent | :34:49. | :34:51. | |
to buy playing an appropriate role in our overall housing market mix. | :34:52. | :34:56. | |
Would you agree that subsidising homeownership does inflate prices? | :34:57. | :35:04. | |
If you are referring to the starter home scheme, | :35:05. | :35:12. | |
as I understand the detail of the scheme, the homes that | :35:13. | :35:25. | |
will be delivered on a site, effectively displace what would have | :35:26. | :35:29. | |
been affordable homes delivered in another way perhaps, | :35:30. | :35:31. | |
affordable homes for rent, by focusing the subsidy | :35:32. | :35:33. | |
that is already implicit in the obligations developers | :35:34. | :35:35. | |
receive through section 106 agreements and so forth. | :35:36. | :35:38. | |
To focus them on delivering homes for ownership. | :35:39. | :35:40. | |
Help to buy similarly, helping people to get | :35:41. | :35:47. | |
onto the housing ladder is a conscious bias in favour | :35:48. | :35:49. | |
of ownership, reflecting the aspiration of 90% | :35:50. | :35:51. | |
As I said, we are looking in the round at housing | :35:52. | :36:08. | |
These are very complicated areas and we will announce any policy | :36:09. | :36:11. | |
Are you thinking that the objective of getting to surplus is retained | :36:12. | :36:21. | |
and you are simply looking at how long you take to do it, | :36:22. | :36:25. | |
or are you looking at the possibility that surplus itself | :36:26. | :36:30. | |
isn't necessarily the right end point for a society which has | :36:31. | :36:34. | |
poor infrastructure, can borrow at virtually no cost | :36:35. | :36:37. | |
at all, and has plenty of people willing to lend to the government? | :36:38. | :36:45. | |
And you said that the PSND needs to be brought down. | :36:46. | :36:59. | |
It can be brought, PSND, as a proportion of GDP, | :37:00. | :37:03. | |
it can be brought down without actually getting as far | :37:04. | :37:10. | |
as surplus, it can be done by having a borrowing requirement 2% or 3% | :37:11. | :37:14. | |
But you do not need to go all the way to generating a surplus | :37:15. | :37:20. | |
in order to achieve a decline in the debt GDP ratio. | :37:21. | :37:23. | |
If you have a borrowing requirement of 2-3% of GDP, unless you have | :37:24. | :37:26. | |
a consistent GDP growth rate above that level, your PSND | :37:27. | :37:29. | |
will not be going down, it will be going up. | :37:30. | :37:32. | |
I would suggest that the level of PSND as a ratio of GDP | :37:33. | :37:35. | |
that we are at at the moment, we are getting quite | :37:36. | :37:38. | |
to the level that might make a difference to the willingness | :37:39. | :37:41. | |
I don't think we should be cavalier about the levels of debt. | :37:42. | :37:46. | |
Perhaps I can help the noble lord by reminding him of what the Prime | :37:47. | :37:52. | |
Minister said at PMQs on the 20th of July, | :37:53. | :37:56. | |
she said: "We have not abandoned the intention to move | :37:57. | :38:00. | |
What I have said is we will not target that at the end | :38:01. | :38:06. | |
That is what I think is possibly a mistake, | :38:07. | :38:09. | |
Can I make one other point on the question of housing | :38:10. | :38:13. | |
If you are trying to get another 50,000 people over the line | :38:14. | :38:18. | |
into homeownership, but the supply of houses by private sector builders | :38:19. | :38:26. | |
does not increase, the only way that is resolved is that you get | :38:27. | :38:31. | |
50,000 people in, and house prices rise in order to discourage | :38:32. | :38:34. | |
a different 50,000 from getting on the ladder. | :38:35. | :38:38. | |
So this is an issue, housing supply increases at the same | :38:39. | :38:41. | |
time, this is a self defeating prophecy. | :38:42. | :38:49. | |
Well, I have already said I completely agree | :38:50. | :38:51. | |
with the committee's analysis that we need to significantly | :38:52. | :38:53. | |
increase house-building rates in this country. | :38:54. | :38:55. | |
And there are many challenges to doing that. | :38:56. | :39:00. | |
There's a planning challenge, a capacity challenge | :39:01. | :39:01. | |
But it's very clear that this is one of the factors. | :39:02. | :39:11. | |
If you're looking to answer the question, why does the UK | :39:12. | :39:15. | |
economy perform differently from other | :39:16. | :39:19. | |
comparable economies, particularly in productivity | :39:20. | :39:21. | |
performance, it seems logical to me to look at ways in which the UK | :39:22. | :39:25. | |
economy functions differently from other comparable economies. | :39:26. | :39:30. | |
The way our housing market functions is very clearly, | :39:31. | :39:33. | |
very different from the way the housing market | :39:34. | :39:37. | |
functions in France, Germany, the Netherlands, | :39:38. | :39:38. | |
And I think we should probably seek to draw lessons from that. | :39:39. | :40:02. | |
I want to put this question, when you said 90% of people aspire | :40:03. | :40:06. | |
I wonder whether you would expect that to change in the light | :40:07. | :40:10. | |
of a prolonged period of low inflation. | :40:11. | :40:15. | |
As you are aware, the propensity to homeownership does vary very | :40:16. | :40:18. | |
considerably amongst Western European economies. | :40:19. | :40:19. | |
It is a broad generalisation, those that have endured or suffered | :40:20. | :40:22. | |
bouts of high inflation in the period since the Second World | :40:23. | :40:25. | |
War, tend to have a high propensity for homeownership, | :40:26. | :40:32. | |
whereas those who have not suffered in that way, | :40:33. | :40:36. | |
such as Germany and the Netherlands, which you've mentioned, | :40:37. | :40:38. | |
tend to have a low propensity to homeownership. | :40:39. | :40:46. | |
Now for much of the lifetime of people around this table, | :40:47. | :40:49. | |
if not at the back of the room, there was a tax | :40:50. | :40:52. | |
incentive to own your own home through the mortgage arrangements. | :40:53. | :40:55. | |
Now we have had some period of low inflation, | :40:56. | :41:03. | |
and we might have a good deal more judging | :41:04. | :41:05. | |
I wondered whether in the light of that, you would expect | :41:06. | :41:11. | |
the propensity to home ownership to revert to the sort of levels | :41:12. | :41:15. | |
it is in some other countries and was indeed in this country, | :41:16. | :41:18. | |
I don't think there is any evidence that the aspiration | :41:19. | :41:35. | |
of years when we have had low inflation. | :41:36. | :41:51. | |
But clearly, when you buy a house, you are doing two things. | :41:52. | :41:56. | |
You are purchasing a place to live and using it as a place to live | :41:57. | :42:00. | |
and making an investment, which has historically turned out | :42:01. | :42:03. | |
The factors at work will be people's desire to own the home they live | :42:04. | :42:08. | |
in, which I think is a strong and deep rooted instinct, | :42:09. | :42:11. | |
independent of the investment performance of the asset. | :42:12. | :42:13. | |
It will be partly motivated by the likely return | :42:14. | :42:16. | |
I don't agree with you that housing is no longer a tax privilege, | :42:17. | :42:24. | |
a tax privileged class of investment, it is | :42:25. | :42:26. | |
It depends, arguably, the removal of schedule a taxation | :42:27. | :42:43. | |
greatly enhanced the tax advantages of owner occupation. | :42:44. | :42:46. | |
It is still a hugely privileged asset class. | :42:47. | :42:49. | |
And of course, people will also be influenced by alternative | :42:50. | :42:52. | |
I don't suppose the noble lord goes in pubs. | :42:53. | :43:07. | |
You will hear people saying, I do not put money in a pension, | :43:08. | :43:12. | |
People look at the after-tax attractiveness of different asset | :43:13. | :43:19. | |
classes, when they are looking at the propensity | :43:20. | :43:21. | |
The people I meet in pubs are looking for somewhere rent. | :43:22. | :43:31. | |
It is getting more and more difficult. | :43:32. | :43:33. | |
It depends on the class of pop you go to. | :43:34. | :43:38. | |
Going back to the scepticism about whether the borrowing rules | :43:39. | :43:47. | |
on local authorities are a real constraint, | :43:48. | :43:51. | |
the local authorities gave us evidence that suggests | :43:52. | :43:54. | |
they strongly thought it was a constraint. | :43:55. | :43:56. | |
If you don't think it is a constraint, then what would you do | :43:57. | :43:59. | |
in the important Autumn Statement, to ensure that local authorities | :44:00. | :44:02. | |
Because it is clear, if you look at foreign examples | :44:03. | :44:11. | |
like France, or our own past history, that the one | :44:12. | :44:14. | |
thing that has gone badly wrong in this country is that | :44:15. | :44:17. | |
while the private sector is still building roughly the same | :44:18. | :44:20. | |
number of houses, Housing Associations and local authorities | :44:21. | :44:26. | |
are not, and I wonder if one is the crack the supply problem, | :44:27. | :44:30. | |
What I am afraid I cannot do today is to tell you in response | :44:31. | :44:37. | |
to the question, what are you going to do in your Autumn Statement? | :44:38. | :44:41. | |
But I recognise the challenge and I have said already, | :44:42. | :44:44. | |
that local authorities, social landlords, corporates, | :44:45. | :44:46. | |
private house-builders, they all have to be part | :44:47. | :44:48. | |
I have already noted down the point about local authority borrowing | :44:49. | :44:58. | |
constraints, and I have not met with the LGA, | :44:59. | :45:01. | |
but I will take that question forward. | :45:02. | :45:02. | |
The hard evidence, which is the available borrowing | :45:03. | :45:13. | |
capacity in housing revenue account authorities, | :45:14. | :45:15. | |
suggests that maybe borrowing is not a constraint. | :45:16. | :45:17. | |
You have suggested that it is, and I will take that up | :45:18. | :45:20. | |
There are bits of it here and there with | :45:21. | :45:26. | |
I accept that and it would be important to understand how many | :45:27. | :45:33. | |
authorities there were chafing at the bit to build houses, | :45:34. | :45:36. | |
Just coming back to well-designed off-balance sheet transactions. | :45:37. | :45:46. | |
Focusing for a moment on Hinkley Point, which seems to be | :45:47. | :45:50. | |
being financed to generate a mere 10% return, probably twice the level | :45:51. | :45:55. | |
of return expected by infrastructure investors, and the tab | :45:56. | :45:57. | |
is being picked up for the next 35 years by the electricity | :45:58. | :46:00. | |
In terms of transferring risk, it is one thing to transfer risk | :46:01. | :46:05. | |
to a corporate entity or a partnership where | :46:06. | :46:16. | |
you are confident that they are going to be able to deliver | :46:17. | :46:19. | |
the goods, but there seems to be many questions | :46:20. | :46:24. | |
hanging over whether in fact Hinkley Point could ever be | :46:25. | :46:28. | |
delivered, so surely it has failed the test of being a well designed | :46:29. | :46:31. | |
As you know, the Prime Minister is reviewing the Hinkley Point | :46:32. | :46:35. | |
project and has promised to reach a decision by the end of this month. | :46:36. | :46:39. | |
When I referred to well-designed, off-balance sheet transactions, | :46:40. | :46:41. | |
I was talking specifically about the transfer of risk | :46:42. | :46:47. | |
I believe the return, the assumed return | :46:48. | :46:53. | |
But what one has to remember is that this project, | :46:54. | :47:00. | |
as proposed, delivers something that has never been delivered by a civil | :47:01. | :47:05. | |
nuclear project anywhere in the world. | :47:06. | :47:08. | |
It transfers the design construction and operation risk entirely | :47:09. | :47:17. | |
Now there is a very hefty insurance premium in there. | :47:18. | :47:24. | |
And that is why the rate of return may look high. | :47:25. | :47:33. | |
But if the project doesn't generate electricity, | :47:34. | :47:35. | |
it will never generate a penny of return. | :47:36. | :47:39. | |
If it generates late, that will be a penalty suffered | :47:40. | :47:45. | |
by the investor, the provider, not by the taxpayer or energy consumer. | :47:46. | :47:51. | |
And indeed, the way the project is structured, there is a penalty | :47:52. | :47:54. | |
for late delivery in the price structure. | :47:55. | :47:57. | |
So not only do they suffer a deferred return on their capital | :47:58. | :48:15. | |
investment, but they will suffer a lower price if the project | :48:16. | :48:17. | |
So I think it does meet the criteria for a well-designed | :48:18. | :48:21. | |
In an area where risk has never been effectively transferred | :48:22. | :48:25. | |
from the buyer to the seller before. | :48:26. | :48:26. | |
As part of the making the economy work for everyone, | :48:27. | :48:30. | |
the government has said that they are going to have a strong | :48:31. | :48:33. | |
And so I would like to explore with you how much | :48:34. | :48:58. | |
that is a change from what was pursued under | :48:59. | :49:00. | |
And if I may, I can divide that into two. | :49:01. | :49:04. | |
The money aspect, which I think lands well and truly | :49:05. | :49:06. | |
in your department, and there is perhaps a broader brush | :49:07. | :49:09. | |
policy issue in terms of, what does that mean for policy change? | :49:10. | :49:12. | |
Have you any comments and information on that? | :49:13. | :49:14. | |
First of all, the industrial strategy is a new departure. | :49:15. | :49:17. | |
The Department for Business Enterprise and the other thing... | :49:18. | :49:33. | |
The department that has changed its name more than any other | :49:34. | :49:38. | |
department in history is currently working up a strategy. | :49:39. | :49:45. | |
The Treasury is obviously involved, but it is the lead innovation | :49:46. | :49:48. | |
Department for enterprise and innovation schools. | :49:49. | :49:49. | |
And in due course, there will be a consultation document published. | :49:50. | :49:56. | |
But the underlying focus is that this economy, | :49:57. | :50:00. | |
although it has done some remarkable things over the last years, | :50:01. | :50:05. | |
it has delivered 2.7 million new jobs, a remarkable achievement, | :50:06. | :50:08. | |
especially when compared with the performance | :50:09. | :50:09. | |
in some of our principal competitors in Europe. | :50:10. | :50:14. | |
What it has not delivered is growing productivity. | :50:15. | :50:20. | |
And what we most urgently need now to focus on is growing | :50:21. | :50:25. | |
the productivity performance of the economy, in order to support | :50:26. | :50:28. | |
rising real wages and rising living standards. | :50:29. | :50:35. | |
There is no other sustainable way to deliver rising living standards | :50:36. | :50:42. | |
on a sustained basis than growing productivity. | :50:43. | :50:50. | |
And we consider that a more active approach to industry is required, | :50:51. | :50:54. | |
Including looking at the remarkable disparity between productivity | :50:55. | :51:02. | |
performance in London and the South East, and the other | :51:03. | :51:05. | |
Including observing that unlike many competitor countries, | :51:06. | :51:16. | |
our secondary cities have very considerably poorer productivity | :51:17. | :51:22. | |
And by addressing those disparities, it is not that the UK | :51:23. | :51:28. | |
economy does not know how to deliver productivity. | :51:29. | :51:31. | |
London and the South East are as productive as any region | :51:32. | :51:34. | |
But we have not worked out how to spread that productivity | :51:35. | :51:39. | |
performance more evenly across the economy. | :51:40. | :51:43. | |
And that is the key challenge that we need to address. | :51:44. | :51:51. | |
So it is a bit like the Northern Powerhouse type of thing? | :51:52. | :52:00. | |
The Northern Powerhouse project is a project which seeks | :52:01. | :52:03. | |
to harvest the benefits of agglomeration. | :52:04. | :52:07. | |
It observes that there four great Northern cities, | :52:08. | :52:10. | |
which are close enough together, given enhanced | :52:11. | :52:17. | |
transport links and they have pretty poor transport links between them | :52:18. | :52:20. | |
at the moment, to create a single Labour market, a single goods | :52:21. | :52:24. | |
Economic theory tells us we should expect to see a transformation | :52:25. | :52:28. | |
in productivity performance of that agglomerated economy. | :52:29. | :52:30. | |
So that is the principle behind Northern Powerhouse. | :52:31. | :52:38. | |
But there are other focuses around the country, which are equally | :52:39. | :52:41. | |
susceptible to support, to achieve higher productivity performance. | :52:42. | :52:46. | |
I think the statistic is that if we were able to spread, | :52:47. | :52:54. | |
if we were able to close by 50% the gap between the productivity | :52:55. | :53:00. | |
of London and the South East, and the rest of England, | :53:01. | :53:03. | |
we would increase GDP by ?300 billion. | :53:04. | :53:08. | |
That's a remarkable figure and a remarkable potential for us | :53:09. | :53:11. | |
Chancellor, given what you have said about the lack of productivity, | :53:12. | :53:20. | |
the lack of connectivity between those four cities, | :53:21. | :53:32. | |
is it more sensible to do the East- West rail line ahead of the south? | :53:33. | :53:36. | |
It is important to do both and my predecessor made clear | :53:37. | :53:43. | |
the government wants to press ahead with the East-West route. | :53:44. | :53:46. | |
And in fact, a sum of money, I cannot remember if it was ?50 | :53:47. | :53:56. | |
million, ?80 million, that was made available | :53:57. | :53:58. | |
So, you would expect them to go forward simultaneously? | :53:59. | :54:02. | |
HS2 is a long-term project, it will take a decade | :54:03. | :54:05. | |
HS2, I suspect that the West Pennine railway may be a shorter duration | :54:06. | :54:14. | |
project, although I am not an expert. | :54:15. | :54:16. | |
We do not have a validated plan for it yet. | :54:17. | :54:20. | |
If I could go back onto the policy aspect, does that mean | :54:21. | :54:23. | |
that the industrial strategy would not be looking at things such | :54:24. | :54:26. | |
And whether sometimes, certain companies shouldn't be | :54:27. | :54:41. | |
taken over because one can't actually deliver, | :54:42. | :54:44. | |
or the companies that take them over cannot deliver | :54:45. | :54:46. | |
on many of the promises that they make at the point of takeover? | :54:47. | :54:51. | |
Well, we have a much more robust system for securing commitments | :54:52. | :54:54. | |
We have applied that system in relation to the recent takeover | :54:55. | :55:09. | |
by Softbank, where those commitments are made in a form | :55:10. | :55:36. | |
are enforceable through the takeover panel. | :55:37. | :55:38. | |
I am not going to set out in detail what the industrial strategy | :55:39. | :55:41. | |
is going to include, the Prime Minister has made it clear | :55:42. | :55:44. | |
that while we welcome investment from overseas in the UK, | :55:45. | :55:47. | |
and indeed we need investment from overseas | :55:48. | :55:51. | |
in the UK, we are interested in investment that will grow | :55:52. | :55:54. | |
We are not interested in asset strippers coming in and buying up | :55:55. | :55:58. | |
And I think you can anticipate that that view will be expressed | :55:59. | :56:03. | |
As a final point, could I ask you whether you would think that | :56:04. | :56:07. | |
you might be prepared to find more money for things | :56:08. | :56:10. | |
like the British Business Bank, and also, would you be extending | :56:11. | :56:13. | |
the sort of guarantees that are envisaged under Brexit | :56:14. | :56:16. | |
to funding channels, currently coming in through the IB | :56:17. | :56:18. | |
First of all, the British Business Bank is already delivering | :56:19. | :56:25. | |
and supporting over ?7.5 billion of investment, | :56:26. | :56:27. | |
So it is doing a significant job already. | :56:28. | :56:34. | |
The lending from EIB, we will watch very carefully. | :56:35. | :56:40. | |
Britain remains a full member of the European Union, | :56:41. | :56:50. | |
and we expect that projects from the UK will be | :56:51. | :56:52. | |
treated absolutely on their merits, and the UK historically, | :56:53. | :56:55. | |
because we deliver strong projects, has done disproportionately well | :56:56. | :56:57. | |
We expect that EIB funding to UK projects will continue right up | :56:58. | :57:05. | |
to the point of departure from the European Union. | :57:06. | :57:09. | |
And obviously as part of the process of exiting the EU, | :57:10. | :57:13. | |
we will have to put in place appropriate alternative arrangements | :57:14. | :57:19. | |
for not just EIB, but for every, but for everything for which we are | :57:20. | :57:25. | |
currently dependent upon an EU structure or institution. | :57:26. | :57:50. | |
I am delighted you raised the European Union. | :57:51. | :57:52. | |
I wanted to talk to you about Brexit. | :57:53. | :57:54. | |
I didn't want to ask you what it means. | :57:55. | :57:57. | |
You can ask me what it means if you like! | :57:58. | :57:59. | |
I think I know the answer to that one. | :58:00. | :58:02. | |
I want to ask you what you would like it to mean. | :58:03. | :58:05. | |
Mr Davies told the House of Commons on Monday that it was very | :58:06. | :58:09. | |
improbable that the United Kingdom could remain in the single market, | :58:10. | :58:12. | |
and Lord Lawson told Times readers last week that it was highly | :58:13. | :58:15. | |
undesirable to remain in the single market. | :58:16. | :58:17. | |
The aim should be to get out as soon as possible, | :58:18. | :58:20. | |
and deregulate much further and faster. | :58:21. | :58:21. | |
You told the BBA in July that it was in the interest | :58:22. | :58:25. | |
of the UK and the other member states to keep things | :58:26. | :58:28. | |
So I deduce that you don't agree with Mr Davies and you don't | :58:29. | :58:35. | |
agree with Lord Lawson, and you yourself would | :58:36. | :58:37. | |
like for financial services to see us remain in or as close | :58:38. | :58:40. | |
to the single market as possible, am I right? | :58:41. | :58:49. | |
First of all, I should make clear that you're quoting my remark | :58:50. | :58:58. | |
at the BBA which was on the evening of the 12th of July, | :58:59. | :59:02. | |
the day before I was appointed to this role, so I was speaking | :59:03. | :59:05. | |
as Foreign Secretary rather as Chancellor of the Exchequer. | :59:06. | :59:08. | |
I certainly got a smaller office as a consequence | :59:09. | :59:11. | |
One of the things we've got to get away from here is talking | :59:12. | :59:22. | |
as if there is only pre-existing model. | :59:23. | :59:28. | |
And we have to use the pre-existing models and language. | :59:29. | :59:30. | |
The UK is not Norway, it's not Switzerland, | :59:31. | :59:33. | |
We are the world's fifth-largest economy. | :59:34. | :59:35. | |
The arrangements that we negotiate with the European Union | :59:36. | :59:43. | |
I have no doubt whatsoever about that. | :59:44. | :59:49. | |
The point I was making to the BBA is that there are very good reasons | :59:50. | :59:53. | |
to think that it is in the interests of the overall economies | :59:54. | :59:57. | |
of the European Union countries, as well as the UK economy | :59:58. | :00:03. | |
London, as Europe's financial centre, remains broadly as it is. | :00:04. | :00:07. | |
I know it's probably become quite fashionable among public opinion | :00:08. | :00:12. | |
to think that banks mainly exist to trade with themselves, | :00:13. | :00:15. | |
They exist to support the real economy. | :00:16. | :00:21. | |
The financial services market is there essentially to support | :00:22. | :00:24. | |
London's financial services market supports the real economy | :00:25. | :00:28. | |
across Europe, and not just in the UK. | :00:29. | :00:31. | |
German car manufacturers, Italian manufacturers of consumer | :00:32. | :00:38. | |
white goods, use the City of London to deliver finance and financial | :00:39. | :00:41. | |
services, and I believe that the structures that we have | :00:42. | :00:46. | |
in London, very complex ecosystem of banks, funds, | :00:47. | :00:50. | |
insurance companies, law firms, business services firms, | :00:51. | :00:53. | |
would not and could not be replicated anywhere else. | :00:54. | :01:00. | |
And to break it up or to try to damage it in the pursuit of some | :01:01. | :01:07. | |
very narrow and hypothetical national advantage, would be a huge | :01:08. | :01:10. | |
mistake for any of our European Union partners to follow. | :01:11. | :01:17. | |
I genuinely believe that London delivers not only for the UK, | :01:18. | :01:20. | |
but for the European Union as a whole. | :01:21. | :01:25. |