05/12/2012 Politics Scotland


05/12/2012

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Time to say goodbye to viewers in Scotland. Welcome to the coverage

:00:05.:00:09.

of the Autumn Statement in Scotland. We have a panel of experts standing

:00:09.:00:19.
:00:19.:00:35.

The news is not good. The Chancellor made clear that he will

:00:35.:00:39.

go on for longer than he had hoped, -- austerity will go on for longer

:00:39.:00:44.

than he had hoped. It is taking time, but the British economy is

:00:44.:00:49.

healing. We will be hearing from Scottish businesses making a living

:00:49.:00:59.
:00:59.:01:00.

under tough economic circumstances. It has taken the money outer pocket,

:01:00.:01:05.

to try to give the kids something for Christmas, we just can't do it

:01:05.:01:08.

anymore. Westminster MPs are still going through the fine print of

:01:08.:01:13.

this, the Autumn Statement. What about the politics and economics of

:01:13.:01:18.

the Chancellor's handiwork? George Osborne has admitted he will miss

:01:18.:01:26.

his own target and will have to extend the austerity measures till

:01:26.:01:30.

2018, but said that we are on the right track.

:01:30.:01:40.
:01:40.:01:48.

It law growth was the result of Government's fiscal policy, they

:01:48.:01:54.

would say so, but they do not. They say the economy has performed less

:01:54.:02:00.

strongly than expected. They forecast growth this year of mine

:02:00.:02:08.

is 0.1%. -- -0.1 %. But they say the expected growth can be

:02:08.:02:16.

accounted for by over-optimism for net trade. They previously assumed

:02:16.:02:19.

that the eurozone would begin to recover in the second half of this

:02:19.:02:23.

year, but instead it has continued to contract. But has had the

:02:23.:02:29.

exports to these markets and the net trade numbers. In short, the

:02:29.:02:32.

tougher economic conditions mean that while the deficit is forecast

:02:32.:02:36.

to go on falling, instead of taking three years to get the debt falling,

:02:36.:02:43.

it will take four. Confronted with this news, some say that we should

:02:43.:02:48.

abandon the deficit plan and try to borrow more. They think by

:02:48.:02:53.

borrowing more we can borrow less. That would risk higher interest

:02:53.:02:58.

rates, more or debt interest payments and a complete loss of

:02:58.:03:02.

Britain's fiscal credibility. We are not taking the road to ruin.

:03:02.:03:05.

Scotland, or Wales and Northern Ireland will get their Barnett

:03:05.:03:13.

formula share of additional capital spending put at their disposal. On

:03:13.:03:19.

top of this �5 billion for infrastructure and support for

:03:19.:03:28.

business, we can provide a... The pay restraint in businesses and

:03:28.:03:33.

government. Average earnings have risen around 10% since 2007. Out of

:03:33.:03:38.

work benefits have gone up by around 20%. That is not fair to

:03:38.:03:43.

working people who pay the taxes that fund them. Those working in

:03:43.:03:45.

the public services who have seen their basic pay frozen will now see

:03:45.:03:51.

it rise by an average of 1%. A similar approach of a 1% rise

:03:51.:03:55.

should apply to those in receipt of benefits. That is fair and it will

:03:55.:04:00.

ensure that we have a welfare system Britain can afford. We will

:04:00.:04:05.

support the vulnerable secure as benefits and disability benefits

:04:06.:04:11.

will be increased in line with inflation. We are extending support

:04:11.:04:15.

for mortgage interest for two more years. We will apply a similar

:04:15.:04:18.

approach to the uprating of some tax thresholds as we have to

:04:18.:04:26.

welfare. The higher rate threshold to will be increased by 1% in the

:04:26.:04:33.

tax years of 2014-15 and 2015-16. The income at which people start

:04:33.:04:43.
:04:43.:04:43.

paying the 40% rate will go up from four to �1,450, and then to 42,285

:04:43.:04:47.

pts. I want to be completely clear with people. This is an increase,

:04:47.:04:52.

it is the first cash increase in the higher rate threshold and

:04:52.:04:57.

Parliament, but it is not in line with inflation, so it is as �1

:04:57.:05:05.

billion of revenue by 2015-16. -- it raises �1 billion. We are joined

:05:05.:05:12.

by the political commentator for the day, Bill Jamieson, and Douglas

:05:12.:05:16.

Fraser. Thank you for joining me. What

:05:16.:05:24.

really stood up for your? Just to pick out the bits that

:05:25.:05:30.

matter most, the forecast growth has been downgraded. It is much

:05:30.:05:34.

weaker than previously thought. Borrowing appears to be falling,

:05:34.:05:37.

but that appears to be because they have included money they have not

:05:37.:05:42.

yet got in. They have not even fixed a deal for selling the 4G

:05:42.:05:51.

network spectrum for mobile. Aid years of austerity, which was well

:05:51.:05:58.

past the next Westminster election. There are �5 billion of investment,

:05:58.:06:02.

part of which is coming to Scotland. There is a squeeze on most working-

:06:02.:06:06.

age benefits, you got some of the details the, and 1% of public-

:06:06.:06:15.

sector pay. A big boost for business to try to get more

:06:15.:06:22.

allowances for investment and Corporation Taxes coming down to

:06:22.:06:28.

21% in 2014. The big thing is he will abandon the three pence

:06:28.:06:32.

increase in fuel duty, which was expected in January, and had

:06:32.:06:37.

already been postponed. If we look at what this means for Scotland,

:06:37.:06:42.

Scots are affected by the fuel duty, and the benefits squeeze effect a

:06:42.:06:50.

lot of Scots. In terms of what comes to Holyrood, the net effect

:06:50.:06:54.

over three years as we will get �330 million more than previously

:06:54.:07:01.

thought. Most of that is coming in as capital but they will have to

:07:01.:07:11.
:07:11.:07:17.

You have been looking at the figures. You thought it Neddy was

:07:17.:07:22.

not as bad as it might have been. Many people were thrown by the fact

:07:22.:07:25.

that the forecast for the budget deficit for this financial year was

:07:25.:07:32.

not nearly as bad as had been widely forecast. That is what

:07:32.:07:37.

through the Shadow Chancellor when he was giving his replies. He was

:07:37.:07:41.

quite thrown by the forecast. As Douglas said, I suspect that what

:07:41.:07:45.

the Chancellor has done is to beat in the Revenue not yet received

:07:45.:07:51.

from the sale of the Forgie licensing. What is the big picture

:07:51.:07:59.

here? We are now in the fiscal consolidation. That is austerity.

:07:59.:08:06.

And it has been going on for eight years. Is the British economy going

:08:06.:08:11.

through a fundamental change? We are not going back to the old

:08:11.:08:15.

business cycle where we bounce back after recession and get back into

:08:15.:08:21.

growth of 3.5% quite quickly. We are not seen that. If that is the

:08:21.:08:26.

case, the next big hurdle for George Osborne is whether the

:08:26.:08:30.

rating agencies might take that view and decide early next year

:08:30.:08:36.

that they're going to downgrade our triple-A rating.

:08:36.:08:39.

The Scottish Government will be poring over these figures, too,

:08:39.:08:44.

analysing what they might mean for Scotland. I am joined by our

:08:44.:08:50.

political editor. Thank you for joining me. Douglas mentioned those

:08:50.:08:54.

figures briefly, but you have been crunching through them as well. Can

:08:54.:08:59.

you give us a bit more detail about what these so-called Barnett

:08:59.:09:03.

consequences mean for Scott and? The initial capital spending for

:09:03.:09:09.

Scott and his �394 million over the two year remaining period up to

:09:09.:09:15.

2015. There is a basic increase in revenue a for Scotland of �90

:09:15.:09:20.

million. That is more than might decide by the French since the

:09:20.:09:24.

Chancellor has announced generally. The top slicing of department

:09:24.:09:29.

limits. Whitehall budgets, are generally one or 2% of the above

:09:29.:09:34.

that level. But because the departments in Scotland compared

:09:34.:09:37.

with the departments and England's, generally health and schools are

:09:37.:09:41.

the big ones, they are being relatively protected in England,

:09:41.:09:46.

therefore there is a relative benefit to Scotland. They have only

:09:46.:09:52.

been cut not 0.4% over all. You're taking about 60 million and net out

:09:52.:09:57.

of the revenue budget in Scotland over those two years. 394 extra in

:09:57.:10:05.

capitals. It is worth 331 million more were John Swinney to spend. He

:10:05.:10:09.

was answering questions here 30 minutes ago. He is welcoming that

:10:09.:10:12.

expenditure, but this Government has pointed out that it comes off

:10:12.:10:16.

the backs of very substantial cuts in capital expenditure, which they

:10:16.:10:20.

have previously deplored. The Scotland officers pointed out that

:10:20.:10:24.

extra money for Scotland, understandably. They're pointing

:10:24.:10:28.

out those who were taken out of tax and benefit from the fuel duty

:10:28.:10:34.

increase being cancelled. It might have been a shortage of space which

:10:34.:10:41.

oblige them to leave out those who will face cuts in their benefits.

:10:41.:10:44.

Scotland has been asking for money and we must be welcoming this now.

:10:44.:10:49.

Scottish industry must be welcome next as well.

:10:49.:10:53.

To be fair to John Swinney, he very positively welcomed it. He is

:10:53.:10:57.

getting his shovel light even my! It's a budget dominated by bleak

:10:57.:11:00.

economic figures. Let's find out more about what the UK government

:11:00.:11:03.

are saying and how it reflects on Scotland. Our Westminster

:11:03.:11:05.

correspondent has been speaking to the Secretary of State for Scotland,

:11:05.:11:12.

Michael Moore. A bit of a difficult balancing act

:11:12.:11:15.

for the Chancellor today. He had to admit that economic growth was

:11:15.:11:19.

lower than he wanted and also that the debts were higher than he

:11:19.:11:25.

wanted. But all politics is local, so what exactly does this autumn

:11:25.:11:29.

statement mean for Scotland? The man who can tell us is the

:11:29.:11:33.

Secretary of State for Scotland. Thank you for joining us. In

:11:33.:11:38.

essence, it is a bit of a curate's egg, isn't it? Good in some parts,

:11:38.:11:44.

but in others. Growth is down and debt is up. The austerity measures

:11:44.:11:48.

will go on for longer. The medicine will have to be taken for longer.

:11:48.:11:53.

What people see and they see it across Europe are some very tough

:11:53.:11:57.

economic circumstances. There is a backdrop that shows us the

:11:57.:12:00.

challenges facing us in the economy in Scotland and across the United

:12:00.:12:05.

Kingdom. What we are seeking to do is have targeted measures which we

:12:05.:12:09.

can afford as a country which will help Scotland the to get on the

:12:09.:12:14.

road to recovery and particularly, through the extra capital that we

:12:14.:12:17.

will be a liar and the Scot has Government to spend, they will be

:12:17.:12:20.

able to focus on the road, transport or other capital projects

:12:20.:12:28.

to get the economy moving. We are seeing the cancellation of fuel

:12:28.:12:33.

duty. With the further increase in the starting point for paying tax,

:12:33.:12:37.

low and middle income Scots across the country will see a much reduced

:12:37.:12:42.

tax bill or no tax at all. We will talk about some of the

:12:42.:12:46.

specifics in a moment. But it is worth pointing out that the

:12:46.:12:50.

austerity programme is going to go on longer. We're going to be poorer

:12:50.:12:54.

and harder up for longer than you Government had sold us.

:12:54.:12:59.

The circumstances that we are aware thing us are much tougher than the

:12:59.:13:03.

forecast a couple of years ago. The depth of the recession that we are

:13:03.:13:06.

recovering from is also a deeper than we were told the couple of

:13:06.:13:12.

years ago. When people look at Europe, I see that they see a very

:13:12.:13:16.

tough set of circumstances. Those are some of our most important

:13:16.:13:22.

exports. And we have to work with what we have. What we're doing here

:13:23.:13:26.

is we have targeted measures to make sure that we have affordable

:13:26.:13:30.

programmes that will help the Scottish economy, whether it is in

:13:30.:13:35.

capital spending, cancellation of fuel duty increase water better tax

:13:35.:13:38.

provisions for low to middle income earners.

:13:38.:13:42.

You say you're making extra funding available to the Scottish

:13:42.:13:46.

Government. You want that to go on capital projects. They have said in

:13:46.:13:50.

the past that they want more money for capital projects. But there is

:13:50.:13:53.

no guarantee that the money you give them they will spend in the

:13:53.:13:56.

way that you might want. We make a distinction between

:13:56.:14:01.

capital spending and resource spending. They will stick within

:14:01.:14:04.

those broad parameters. However, what they have been asking for and

:14:04.:14:07.

what we are delivering is a significant opportunity to invest

:14:07.:14:11.

in capital projects. Whether those are transport projects are other

:14:11.:14:15.

infrastructure projects, that has got to be good news for the country

:14:15.:14:18.

and I hope they will come forward as good, productive suggestions

:14:18.:14:22.

very quickly. The Chancellor said it was fiscally

:14:22.:14:27.

neutral. What he gave with one hand, he was taking away with the other

:14:27.:14:30.

point As far as Scotland is concerned, can you come up with the

:14:30.:14:34.

figure to say that Scotland will be this a much better off because of

:14:34.:14:37.

this autumn statement or this amount worse off?

:14:37.:14:41.

We're aiming to get fairness across the whole of the United Kingdom.

:14:41.:14:45.

We're asking people to tighten their belts further and for longer

:14:45.:14:48.

and we are also targeting the very wealthy to ensure that they're

:14:48.:14:52.

making a very big contribution to the deficit reduction plans. We

:14:52.:14:57.

have to keep things on track and remain credible with the

:14:57.:15:00.

international financial markets. We have to create the right economic

:15:00.:15:03.

conditions which allow Scottish prisons is to thrive and employ

:15:03.:15:06.

more people. The Chancellor has announced that

:15:06.:15:10.

he is operating some of the tax rates and the allowances by 1%. He

:15:10.:15:15.

is also doing the same with benefits. That is less than the

:15:15.:15:19.

same -- the rate of inflation. For many people in and out of work,

:15:19.:15:23.

that will be a reduction in their living standards, want it?

:15:23.:15:27.

And we are seeing quite a tough message today. But we are clear

:15:27.:15:30.

that we have a programme here that will get the country through these

:15:30.:15:37.

very difficult times and get us properly on the road to recovery.

:15:37.:15:40.

Those investment plans and support for those on their Loryn comes will

:15:40.:15:43.

help people to get through these difficult times for and have a much

:15:43.:15:46.

more sustainable position than we ever had done at the last

:15:46.:15:50.

Government. The Autumn Statement is all about

:15:50.:15:56.

forecast. But there is no guarantee that this time everything is in

:15:56.:16:00.

place. The Chancellor may be coming to us in a few months' time and say

:16:00.:16:04.

things are worse again. These forecasts are independently

:16:04.:16:07.

provided and assessed. There will be plenty of commentators who will

:16:07.:16:11.

be able to make a judgement on it, but we think there fair assessments.

:16:11.:16:16.

We have to make sure that against this very difficult backdrop, we

:16:16.:16:20.

take the right measures which are affordable for the country. With

:16:20.:16:24.

this Autumn Statement, the Chancellor has got this right.

:16:24.:16:27.

I'm now joined from our newsroom by Stephen Boyle from Royal Bank of

:16:27.:16:30.

Scotland. He's been crunching the figures. Tell us first of all what

:16:30.:16:40.
:16:40.:16:42.

the big picture is here? He was mentioning Europe. We are being

:16:42.:16:46.

buffeted by trade wins from the Continent. That is why the British

:16:46.:16:51.

economy is suffering so bad. The head winds from Europe are an

:16:51.:16:55.

important factor. The problems of the eurozone has meant that demand

:16:55.:17:00.

in the eurozone for Scottish and British exports is much weaker than

:17:00.:17:03.

its might otherwise have been. The enduring problem that the UK

:17:03.:17:08.

economy faces is the extent of indebtedness. As long as that is

:17:08.:17:11.

there, it will take a long time for growth to return to the types of

:17:11.:17:15.

rates that we have been used to in the past.

:17:15.:17:22.

Bill was talking about a major shift in Britain's economy, where

:17:22.:17:28.

we used to be able to bounce back quickly, we cannot any more of.

:17:28.:17:31.

Nobody who is alive in the UK today has been been through a period of

:17:31.:17:38.

weak gross like this. It is because of the extent of indebtedness.

:17:38.:17:41.

We have that eight years of austerity measures. What does that

:17:41.:17:46.

mean for a living standards for people across the UK and Scotland?

:17:46.:17:50.

It means the Government is going to be taking more out of your pockets

:17:50.:17:55.

than it will be putting in. In comes, certainly in respect of the

:17:55.:17:59.

tax and spending condition, are going to be constrained. People's

:17:59.:18:02.

living standards are not going to increase that the kind of rates

:18:02.:18:08.

that we have seen in the past. We should expect the growth in living

:18:08.:18:13.

standards to be extremely modest over the next few years.

:18:13.:18:18.

The pines in people's pockets is getting less valuable. But what

:18:18.:18:23.

does it mean for business? There is a corporation tax of 21% by 20th

:18:23.:18:27.

April 14. Business will welcome that. In

:18:27.:18:31.

England, there is the continuing restriction on the growth of

:18:31.:18:36.

business rates. But as the Chancellor made clear, this

:18:36.:18:40.

announcement today is fiscally neutral. Anything that has been

:18:40.:18:44.

given is also being taken away in the life of this Parliament. In

:18:44.:18:47.

balance, it should not have any over all effect.

:18:47.:18:56.

Thank you. Businesses mostly welcome measures

:18:56.:19:00.

announced in the state and. Our Business Correspondent has been --

:19:00.:19:04.

Visit One. They have been making roles here in

:19:04.:19:14.
:19:14.:19:16.

Glasgow for 47 years. John Heaney has been here for 17 of those.

:19:16.:19:20.

We're still the same company that has here seven years ago. You

:19:20.:19:25.

struggle. You cannot buy the stuff that used to be able to live. The

:19:25.:19:30.

price of everything has gone up, so it is taking the money out of power

:19:30.:19:34.

pocket. We cannot give the kids what we want to give them at

:19:34.:19:38.

Christmas. The company is under new management and things are turning

:19:38.:19:42.

around. They have introduced new products. Now, as well as the

:19:42.:19:46.

famous roles, the company makes a whole range of cakes and pastries.

:19:46.:19:51.

But margins are always under pressure. Why on of the major

:19:51.:19:55.

issues facing the company is the increase in flower. That is our

:19:55.:20:00.

biggest raw-material. Over the past year, due to the economic climate

:20:00.:20:04.

and third rights that we have had throughout Europe, it has increased

:20:04.:20:09.

dramatically. We have already seen two price increases last year.

:20:09.:20:14.

Fortunately for us, we have actually fixed our price of flour

:20:14.:20:18.

for another year. We will not see any more price increases for the

:20:18.:20:21.

next year and that. That is the biggest impact it has had on us

:20:21.:20:25.

this year. Scrapping the planned rise in fuel

:20:25.:20:30.

duty will help. The company has invested in a new fleet of vans to

:20:30.:20:34.

deliver to its customers to write the whole of the Western for --

:20:34.:20:39.

West of Scotland. They're great for the business. It has reduced the

:20:39.:20:44.

cost on the distribution side and it will give us an opportunity to

:20:44.:20:47.

invest in other areas. The Government has a major parts to

:20:47.:20:52.

play to stop the rises and help us through this difficult period.

:20:52.:20:56.

Morten's are hoping its customers are not feeling the squeeze.

:20:56.:21:00.

Although austerity is here to stay, business has welcomed the release

:21:00.:21:04.

of money for capital investment. Although not as much as the

:21:04.:21:08.

Scottish Government was calling for, major construction projects in

:21:08.:21:13.

Scotland could now get the go-ahead. Sweet news for businesses. The loss

:21:14.:21:19.

of benefit from a cut in corporation tax -- tax, also new

:21:19.:21:22.

incentives to invest in plant machinery and the extra funding to

:21:22.:21:26.

try to boost exports, who knows, Norton's rolls and cakes could soon

:21:26.:21:36.
:21:36.:21:39.

be available in other parts of the We have opposition party leading

:21:39.:21:43.

figures here. Two of them are friends from the coalition party at

:21:43.:21:47.

Westminster. But we have divided them today. Thank you for joining

:21:47.:21:56.

us. Debt target is off, growth cut -- target is off. You have to look

:21:56.:22:00.

at everything. Unemployment will be far lower than projected, far lower

:22:00.:22:05.

than any other countries in the world. We are still being less in

:22:05.:22:08.

terms of borrowing than we ever have before. Much less than just

:22:08.:22:12.

about any other country in the world. We have more people in

:22:12.:22:19.

employment. Lots of positive news out there. I think the approach

:22:19.:22:24.

taken by the Chancellor is right, he has to stick to it. Sticking to

:22:24.:22:29.

it. He says he has to stick to it. He did not say there is no

:22:29.:22:34.

alternative, but he said he had to stick to the targets. That was the

:22:34.:22:39.

most worrying message. When George Osborne came in, Labour warned that

:22:39.:22:43.

if he continued with the austerity approach when we would be heading

:22:43.:22:47.

for a double-dip recession. From the forecast today, it could be a

:22:47.:22:53.

triple trough by the sound of it. This is not how to get the economy

:22:53.:22:58.

going. He has missed his bowling targets. The whole point was to

:22:58.:23:02.

reduce borrowing, but he has borrowed more. We have more than 2

:23:02.:23:10.

million unemployed. But he did say that the deficit is being reduced

:23:10.:23:15.

every year, and he will continue with that on -- as an objective.

:23:15.:23:19.

sets different targets, but the one he said himself is to reduce

:23:19.:23:25.

borrowing. The only thing he has got out of this is the sale of the

:23:25.:23:28.

4G network spectrum. If it had not been for that, the figures would

:23:28.:23:32.

have been even worse. It is time for a change of direction from a

:23:32.:23:40.

government. -- from the Government. I do not think there were any

:23:40.:23:45.

surprises in the sense that there was going to be bad news in the

:23:45.:23:50.

Budget statement, but as Davan pointed out, there are other trains

:23:50.:23:55.

moving in the right direction, and amidst all the pleas for a change

:23:55.:23:58.

of direction, what we have not had it is an alternative package that

:23:59.:24:04.

would get us out of the problem that they left us in. We saw Danny

:24:04.:24:07.

Alexander smiling gently in the Commons when that announcement was

:24:07.:24:10.

made about increasing the personal allowance, getting close to the

:24:10.:24:15.

10,000 level, to take people out of tax. He was not smiling so much

:24:15.:24:22.

when the constraints on benefits were announced. Yes, in terms of

:24:22.:24:26.

the commitment to take those on the lowest incomes out of tax, that was

:24:26.:24:30.

very much a Liberal Democrat priority going into the coalition

:24:30.:24:34.

negotiations, and we are now at the point of removing another 21,000

:24:34.:24:38.

people in Scotland out of paying tax all together. You did not enter

:24:38.:24:41.

politics to strip people of benefits. What we have all agreed

:24:41.:24:49.

in terms of the welfare package, something had to be done, we could

:24:49.:24:55.

not continue on the same trajectory, and so we have committed to a 1%

:24:55.:24:58.

increase thereafter. It would be interesting to see if Labour would

:24:58.:25:08.
:25:08.:25:08.

do this. What do you make of these points? I think the Chancellor has

:25:08.:25:11.

revealed he has the wrong priorities. He is punishing people

:25:11.:25:15.

for being unemployed, which is fundamentally unfair, he is also

:25:15.:25:19.

punishing working families and creating a new class of working

:25:19.:25:26.

poor. EZ is is unfair to watch someone going out of the door to

:25:26.:25:33.

work, when he is lying on -- he is saying it is unfair to watch

:25:33.:25:36.

someone going out of the door to work when you are earning the same

:25:36.:25:40.

for doing nothing. He said the private sector would make up for

:25:40.:25:45.

the public sector losses, but they have not. His priorities are the

:25:45.:25:50.

wealthy, while the working poor suffer if. The Labour Party want to

:25:50.:25:56.

spend more money, but if you want to do that you have to increase tax.

:25:56.:26:04.

On the point about welfare reductions, excluded from that are

:26:04.:26:07.

carers and the disability allowance. There are exceptions. But you have

:26:07.:26:15.

to look at last year's big position where there was a 5% increase. --

:26:15.:26:25.
:26:25.:26:29.

And the scrapping of the planned dual duty increase. -- fuel duty.

:26:29.:26:36.

Yes, he felt that simply delaying this was not the right thing to do.

:26:36.:26:43.

It was beautiful stop it may have been in the House, -- it was

:26:43.:26:49.

theatre. The price of petrol has gone up so much, his revenue from

:26:49.:26:55.

taxing it has gone up so she did not need the increase. John Swinney

:26:55.:27:05.
:27:05.:27:10.

will be a -- here in a moment, pointing out the North Sea oil.

:27:10.:27:16.

Labour said do not introduce the three pence rise. Let us talk about

:27:16.:27:24.

the Scottish budget. Up 331 million, but John Swinney was saying that it

:27:24.:27:29.

comes against a background of very big cuts in capital expenditure.

:27:29.:27:35.

Look at it over the spending review period. You are now at well over �1

:27:35.:27:40.

billion in terms of Barnett formula consequential, but the announcement

:27:40.:27:44.

of �394 million of capital spend can be applied to projects. The

:27:44.:27:48.

challenge for the Scottish government is to prove that these

:27:48.:27:56.

projects are actually shovel ready, and we can go ahead. The capital

:27:56.:27:59.

will be welcome and it is needed in the economy to get people working

:27:59.:28:04.

again, for example in the housing area, which the Scottish Government

:28:04.:28:07.

have cut. But it is worrying that the Scottish Government have cut

:28:07.:28:13.

back their investment programme, which has slipped by more than 330

:28:13.:28:17.

million. So this money is actually only just filling all that they

:28:17.:28:27.
:28:27.:28:28.

created. That is right. There are some questions over whether these

:28:28.:28:32.

projects were shovel ready. What we have seen in terms of the UK

:28:32.:28:35.

announcement today about the �390 million in extra capital spending

:28:35.:28:40.

is that the SNP's bluff has been called, it is up to them to get on

:28:40.:28:45.

with projects. Thank you. We will be hearing from John

:28:45.:28:52.

Swinney later. You're watching a special Politics

:28:52.:28:55.

Scotland with the analysis of the Chancellor's Autumn Statement, and

:28:55.:29:00.

what it means for us. This is a recap of what George Osborne said a

:29:00.:29:09.

couple of hours ago. Austerity measures are extended until 2018.

:29:09.:29:15.

Eight years of austerity. The growth forecast for 2012 has been

:29:15.:29:19.

downgraded to -0.1 %. He missed his target for rigorous in -- reducing

:29:19.:29:25.

national debt, but there will be 5 billion extra in capital spend.

:29:25.:29:32.

We also have a cut in corporation tax to 21%. That comes in in April,

:29:32.:29:40.

2014. The income tax threshold will be raised. And good news for her

:29:40.:29:44.

prep -- hard pressed motorists, the three pence fuel duty rise has been

:29:44.:29:48.

can sold. Joining me in the studio is Bill

:29:48.:29:53.

Jamieson and Douglas Fraser. First of all, Douglas, looking at the

:29:53.:29:56.

politics of this, the Chancellor says he was on the right track and

:29:56.:30:01.

did not want to go down the road to ruin. He thinks the Labour Party

:30:01.:30:07.

would do this. Yes, the track has to stop at some point for an

:30:07.:30:11.

election, which is the crucial point of this. The crucial plan he

:30:11.:30:19.

had at the start of this was that we have a narrative arc ending in

:30:19.:30:26.

5th -- 2015, at which point a grateful electorate would vote for

:30:26.:30:35.

them. Now we're progressing three years beyond that, and they may not

:30:35.:30:38.

feel as grateful as George Osborne hope they would feel. So it will be

:30:38.:30:43.

a tough election in 2015. It is worth also stressing that the

:30:43.:30:47.

austerity is moving at a different pace, depending on what you look at.

:30:47.:30:51.

The tax rises as part of what he is doing, most of them have been

:30:51.:30:58.

implemented. The capital cuts go long way down the road. They have

:30:58.:31:03.

been quite severe in the L -- early stages of the austerity programme,

:31:03.:31:09.

but the cuts to services and service provision, we are nowhere

:31:09.:31:13.

close to they have we point on that. There is a great deal more of that

:31:13.:31:23.
:31:23.:31:23.

do come, and that is going to be painful. North and south of the

:31:23.:31:26.

border, there are stories coming through about the health service,

:31:26.:31:30.

which has been detected, but service provision and the level of

:31:30.:31:37.

care is really getting squeezed. Bill Jamieson, he is pointing out

:31:37.:31:41.

how politicised the budget is, but he may not even the Chancellor than

:31:41.:31:46.

2018. The Budget was a huge shambles, and they spent a long

:31:46.:31:51.

time trying to clear up from that. There has been a new Treasury team.

:31:51.:31:55.

Howard successful is this Autumn Statement in terms of reaching out

:31:55.:31:59.

to people and telling them the Chancellor is the right man to do

:31:59.:32:06.

the job? There were very few leaks this time in terms of what we saw

:32:06.:32:11.

in March, so I think the Treasury has been very busy. A lot of effort

:32:11.:32:16.

went into the driving home the political points on clamping down

:32:16.:32:25.

on tax evasion, he made some very good points on that, to his credit.

:32:25.:32:32.

The Slater fund was up that there is much made -- the sleight of hand

:32:32.:32:42.
:32:42.:32:43.

was that there was much made about the deficit, and that is where he

:32:43.:32:49.

is able to reduce the magic numbers on the deficit. In terms of, is he

:32:49.:32:59.
:32:59.:33:04.

on track? The mantra is wearing thin. If you look at the situation,

:33:04.:33:08.

there is only one track to go down, and I do not think there would be

:33:08.:33:10.

much difference between the three parties.

:33:10.:33:14.

One of the most worrying aspects of the downturn has been the bleak

:33:14.:33:17.

prospects for young people. Youth unemployment stands at 24% in

:33:17.:33:23.

Scotland. A summit to tackle back has been taking place in Edinburgh,

:33:23.:33:33.

Later today we will find out from the Chancellor the state of the

:33:33.:33:36.

economy from his perspective as he gives the Autumn Statement. But the

:33:36.:33:40.

state of the economy and the personal impact the recession has

:33:40.:33:50.
:33:50.:33:52.

had on lots of people is felt here. Here are some people taking part in

:33:52.:33:56.

the youth employment summit. Are you looking at -- for work that the

:33:56.:34:02.

more mint? Not just now. I am doing work experience, which I have been

:34:02.:34:10.

doing for four beaks. How long have you been looking for work? -- about

:34:10.:34:20.
:34:20.:34:21.

one year. Was it easy to find the opportunity? It was easy to find it.

:34:21.:34:25.

Is this your experience the as well? Yes, I have applied for loads

:34:25.:34:30.

of jobs, had some interviews, but nothing yet. What do you think is

:34:30.:34:34.

stopping you get the more permanent opportunity? I think it is lack of

:34:35.:34:43.

experience. That is why am at the JobCentre doing work experience. I

:34:43.:34:53.
:34:53.:34:58.

want to do admin and office work. Other employers are looking for

:34:58.:35:02.

people with experience and I get to know how to use the computers and

:35:02.:35:10.

the abdomen and the filing work. there a job at the end of the? --

:35:10.:35:20.

the admin. Hopefully. You're the chairperson of the youth employment

:35:20.:35:25.

organisation. You know there is a big problem with youth unemployment.

:35:25.:35:31.

What can days like today do to help this? It helps bring together young

:35:31.:35:36.

people, and the Scottish government, and it allows young people to

:35:36.:35:40.

explain to the ministers, to explain to Parliament, to explain

:35:40.:35:44.

to Civil Service, exactly what the problems are, and where they are

:35:44.:35:47.

finding trouble, so ministers can get first-line experience of what

:35:47.:35:53.

is going on so they can take that to employers and places like the

:35:53.:35:57.

JobCentre, and that can make it easier for young people. What kind

:35:57.:36:04.

of information will ministers get today? Problems like accessibility,

:36:04.:36:08.

and information. Those are two problems. Also the general creation

:36:08.:36:13.

of jobs. We have been delighted at the Scottish river -- Youth

:36:13.:36:16.

Parliament to the Government's commitment to lowering youth

:36:16.:36:24.

unemployment. Today is a first step in that. We have been working with

:36:24.:36:28.

cabinet ministers here today, and employers. That shows the strength

:36:28.:36:31.

of feeling there is that young people have to be involved in the

:36:31.:36:38.

The Chancellor's bleak economic figures provided rich pickings for

:36:38.:36:41.

the Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls. He was able to launch a stinging

:36:41.:36:43.

critique on the Chancellor's credibility, which left George

:36:43.:36:46.

Osborne and those on the government benches shaking their heads and

:36:46.:36:55.

jeering. Here's a taste of what happened.

:36:55.:37:00.

Bar a holiday this year is contracting. The Chancellor has

:37:00.:37:04.

confirmed that Government borrowing is revised up this year, next year

:37:04.:37:09.

and every year. The national deficit is rising and is not

:37:09.:37:19.
:37:19.:37:20.

falling. I will say it again. Our economy is contracting this year.

:37:20.:37:23.

Government borrowing and the deficit is revised up this year,

:37:23.:37:29.

next year and every year and the national debt is rising. It is not

:37:29.:37:35.

falling. It is people already struggling to make ends meet,

:37:35.:37:39.

middle and lower income families and pensioners, who are paying the

:37:39.:37:45.

price, while millionaires get a tax cut, a �3 billion welfare handout

:37:45.:37:52.

to the people who need at least, Mr Speaker. Let me spell out the full

:37:52.:38:02.
:38:02.:38:03.

facts for the house. They should listen, they might learn something.

:38:03.:38:08.

In June 2010, the Office of Budget Responsibility for cast our economy

:38:08.:38:14.

would grow by 2.8%. In March of this year, they said there would

:38:14.:38:20.

still be gross, but they revised it down to just 0.8%. Today, we

:38:20.:38:24.

learned that the Chancellor has not even manage that. Growth has not

:38:24.:38:29.

only been downgraded yet again, but he has confirmed following a double

:38:29.:38:33.

dip recession that our economy is now forecast to actually contract

:38:33.:38:39.

inside this year by 0.1%. Let me remind the house what the

:38:39.:38:44.

Chancellor promised over two years ago in the June budget. He said, we

:38:44.:38:48.

have provided the foundations for economic recovery in all parts of

:38:48.:38:54.

our nation. He said, we have set the course for a balanced budget

:38:54.:39:03.

and falling national debt by the end of this Parliament.

:39:03.:39:07.

I at one point, Ed Balls was wandering about dodgy dealings. He

:39:07.:39:11.

was rather suspicious of the Chancellor's figures, wasn't he?

:39:11.:39:16.

He was. I don't think all the calculations have been put out into

:39:16.:39:20.

the public domain as yet. I suspect that you may have been referring to

:39:20.:39:26.

the way in which George Osborne looks to have included the proceeds

:39:26.:39:32.

of the seal of the Ford G licences, which are not due until March. He

:39:32.:39:36.

is not certain he will get this money, but he has added �3.5

:39:36.:39:42.

billion into the figures. So, the deficit did not look as bad as most

:39:42.:39:46.

people were expecting. Let's get some more reaction from

:39:46.:39:54.

Westminster. MPs have had two cars to in really

:39:54.:39:57.

digest the Autumn Statement and I am sure they know what words for

:39:57.:40:05.

word. Let's test them on it. Margaret, let me start with you.

:40:05.:40:11.

Presumably, you will tell me you do not like this. Why?

:40:11.:40:14.

Because we have seen George Osborne come to the chamber this afternoon

:40:14.:40:19.

and essentially admits his policies are feeling. He told us some time

:40:19.:40:23.

ago that we would have growth this year in the British economy. We now

:40:23.:40:29.

see that it is actually a -0.1 %. We have a shrinking economy. People

:40:29.:40:32.

want to get their families prospering and get back to work and

:40:33.:40:36.

get this economy moving. The Chancellor can play all sorts of

:40:36.:40:42.

games, but he has failed. You're not happy with what the

:40:42.:40:46.

Chancellor is doing. What would your party be doing differently?

:40:46.:40:50.

We would have a plan for jobs and growth, which are essential

:40:50.:40:54.

difference with this Government. You need to encourage demand,

:40:54.:40:59.

confidence, get people spending. Don't spend money on unemployment

:40:59.:41:03.

benefit. Let people spend their own money on tax receipts and that is

:41:03.:41:08.

how you get the economy moving its. Gross is lower than it is in Europe,

:41:08.:41:12.

even with the eurozone crisis. The British Chancellor is doing

:41:12.:41:17.

something fundamentally wrong. The UK Government has announced

:41:17.:41:22.

that Scotland will get an extra �331 million to spend. They say

:41:22.:41:26.

they want to spend on capital projects. You Government says it

:41:26.:41:30.

wants more money for capital projects. Does that mean that we

:41:30.:41:33.

can see these shovels doing some work in Scotland and people getting

:41:33.:41:36.

back into work? The Scottish Government has long

:41:37.:41:41.

been pressing for investment in growth, for more money for these

:41:41.:41:47.

projects. There is a long list of projects. Obviously, this money is

:41:47.:41:52.

welcome. It is nowhere near enough. We need to get growth going. We

:41:52.:41:57.

need to get people back into work. The Chancellor has shown us that

:41:57.:42:00.

that we are facing more and more years of austerity and unless we

:42:00.:42:06.

get coast going, things will not get any better. Although the money

:42:06.:42:11.

for capital projects has welcome, he has only uprated benefits by 1%

:42:11.:42:15.

for the next three years. That will pile misery upon misery for people

:42:15.:42:19.

who are already suffering very badly in huge areas of Scotland.

:42:19.:42:23.

But you will never get everything you want. Surely, you Government,

:42:23.:42:27.

who has been calling for this extra money, should now be in a position

:42:27.:42:32.

to say here is a list of what we can do and we are going out to go

:42:32.:42:35.

and do it. As I said, the Government has been

:42:35.:42:39.

calling for that for some time and this should have been done a long

:42:39.:42:42.

time ago. There is a list of projects and the Government will be

:42:42.:42:45.

looking at it and looking at the amount of money they have to see

:42:45.:42:51.

which of these projects they can get going night to get people back

:42:51.:42:55.

into work and to get real growth in the economy.

:42:55.:43:03.

Margaret, high political aid budget is this? How difficult will it

:43:03.:43:07.

speak for your party to reduce benefits for people who are

:43:07.:43:10.

unemployed or at work? That probably go down quite well with

:43:10.:43:13.

the majority of the electorate, doesn't it?

:43:13.:43:16.

George Osborne thinks too much of his political party's position and

:43:16.:43:21.

not enough of the interest of the people. Unemployment is now higher

:43:21.:43:26.

in Scotland than it is in the rest of the UK. We are squeezed between

:43:26.:43:31.

two governments to have got their priorities wrong. The SNP should be

:43:31.:43:35.

setting up to do more and make sure these capital projects are spent in

:43:35.:43:42.

a way that brings jobs to Scotland and not jobs overseas.

:43:42.:43:45.

This is a very political Budget, isn't it?

:43:45.:43:50.

Yes. Margaret is quite wrong and what she's saying. The Scottish

:43:50.:43:54.

Government has brought a lot of jobs to Scotland, up but there

:43:54.:43:56.

governed by the European procurement rules, which a

:43:56.:44:00.

Government is in place. They are curating jobs and they will

:44:00.:44:04.

continue to create jobs. They will do everything they can and market

:44:04.:44:08.

stocks about this, but she is the one he wants to keep control of

:44:08.:44:13.

Scotland. We will have that argument on

:44:13.:44:17.

another day! Thank you. Joining me now from the Garden

:44:17.:44:20.

Lobby is the Finance Secretary John Swinney, who has been analysing the

:44:20.:44:24.

figures from the Treasury. I want to get you reaction first to the

:44:24.:44:34.
:44:34.:44:35.

big picture, the key economic indicators the Chancellor outlined.

:44:35.:44:39.

The Chancellor was talking about the eurozone crisis.

:44:39.:44:44.

A yes, there are clearly problems in the eurozone and that is why

:44:44.:44:47.

actions taken in a domestic economy here to try and improve economic

:44:47.:44:51.

performance is important. What the Chancellor announced today in terms

:44:51.:44:55.

of their revised growth forecast, which is severely down, an

:44:55.:44:59.

increased level of borrowing, an extension of the period of

:44:59.:45:03.

austerity to 2018. These are all indications that the United Kingdom

:45:03.:45:06.

Government's economic policy has field and it has failed

:45:06.:45:10.

dramatically. That is why he has had to accept some of the advice

:45:10.:45:14.

that we have been giving him for some time that it is essential to

:45:15.:45:17.

invest in capital investment and that is what we have been pressing

:45:17.:45:20.

him to do for some time. The Chancellor said that the

:45:20.:45:23.

economy in Britain was performing better than our neighbours in

:45:23.:45:27.

France and Germany. He was pointing out that there was good news for

:45:27.:45:31.

employment prospects in England. But the unemployment rate here in

:45:31.:45:36.

Scotland is actually worse. The on employment position in England has

:45:36.:45:42.

been substantially enhanced by the one-off benefit of the Olympics

:45:42.:45:45.

that we have to look at the headline economic data that has

:45:45.:45:50.

come into this Autumn Statement. We have got the information on

:45:50.:45:53.

revised growth forecasts which are down. We have increased borrowing

:45:53.:45:57.

levels and higher levels of borrowing than anticipated. We have

:45:57.:46:02.

the extension of the austerity period to 2018. These are three

:46:02.:46:05.

indications that the Chancellor's economic policies have failed and

:46:05.:46:10.

he has that to take a different course.

:46:10.:46:16.

Talking about capital investment, you have just been granted an extra

:46:16.:46:23.

�331 million from them. Where will that go? The Clyde good way? --

:46:23.:46:28.

Gate way? Will you put your money for your mouth is?

:46:28.:46:31.

The Scottish Government has been taking action for the last four

:46:31.:46:35.

years to strengthen our capital investment. I have taken decisions

:46:35.:46:40.

to shift resource expenditure into capital projects. We have did a

:46:40.:46:43.

number of projects on to the non- profit distributing model, which

:46:43.:46:47.

means they can take their course, despite the 33% reduction in

:46:47.:46:50.

capital budgets that we face and the UK Government. What we're going

:46:50.:46:53.

to do now with the resources that have been allocated today as a

:46:53.:46:57.

consequence of our pressure is to deploy those projects as swiftly as

:46:57.:47:01.

we possibly can to start getting the building projects under way,

:47:01.:47:04.

creating employment and encouraging the economic recovery of Scotland.

:47:04.:47:09.

My only regret is that we have had to wait so long for this to happen.

:47:09.:47:14.

If the Chancellor had accepted our advice in 2010, we would not have

:47:14.:47:17.

faced a double dip recession and we could have invested in the

:47:17.:47:19.

construction industry in Scotland and in the economic infrastructure

:47:19.:47:23.

of our country. The Chancellor has to be taken the

:47:23.:47:30.

wind out of Alex Salmond's seals. He was after corporation tax of 20%,

:47:30.:47:36.

but the UK rate will be 21% by April 2014. What you make of that?

:47:36.:47:41.

Disaster has taken a welcome step in relation a corporation tax. --

:47:41.:47:47.

of the Chancellor. Then the Chancellor has been unable to rival

:47:47.:47:50.

the competitive position of business rates that the Scottish

:47:50.:47:52.

Government has put in place. We have the most competitive regime

:47:52.:47:57.

for business rates of any part of the United Kingdom. That

:47:57.:48:01.

demonstrates that Scotland is a part of the United Kingdom. It is

:48:01.:48:06.

able to put in place measures that are supportive of business and

:48:06.:48:10.

secure Investment in Scotland. That is why we are topping the league of

:48:10.:48:14.

investment in the United Kingdom. The steps we are taking are

:48:14.:48:17.

designed to make the country a competitive place to do business.

:48:17.:48:24.

If the UK has a rate of 21%, what rate would you like in Scotland?

:48:24.:48:28.

Discovers Government has always said we should have a competitive

:48:28.:48:33.

position on corporation tax. -- and the Scottish Government. The people

:48:33.:48:38.

of Scotland have on opportunity in 2014 to vote for that proposition

:48:38.:48:40.

in the referendum we will put to the people.

:48:40.:48:43.

Thank you. Let's get some more reaction from

:48:43.:48:50.

Let's speak now to David Watt from the Institute of Directors. Has he

:48:50.:49:00.
:49:00.:49:00.

What kind of role of the Liberal Democrats played in this? If you

:49:00.:49:02.

look at the facial expressions of Nick Clegg, he doesn't look very

:49:02.:49:08.

happy at all! Especially when the Chancellor said

:49:08.:49:13.

there would be no resort to a mansion tax. That was one of the

:49:13.:49:16.

great Liberal Democrat clauses. This is a very difficult state and

:49:17.:49:20.

for any politician, not just the Liberal Democrats, to have to sell

:49:20.:49:27.

to the voters. I felt they could have had is perhaps a bit more in

:49:27.:49:32.

Pitt's on measures to help the supply side of the economy. --

:49:32.:49:39.

input. It but did not seem to be much help for small businesses. --

:49:39.:49:43.

they did not seem to be. That is the big missing factor.

:49:43.:49:50.

Thank you. The that's all we have time for.

:49:50.:49:55.

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