14/09/2011 Politics Scotland

Hello and welcome to Politics Scotland. Coming up on the

programme: Scotland bucks the UK unemployment trend as jobless

figures improve - 3000 fewer people are seeking work. But it's not all

good news - there's concern on the shop floor as retail sales plummet.

As concern grows about the state of the world economy, the Finance

Secretary will this afternoon chart the way ahead for Scotland. And,

here at Westminster, could we be heading towards a winter of

discontent? Public sector unions say they will ballot for strike

action. Good afternoon. Let's start with

the economy, where we're seeing a very mixed picture. The latest

unemployment figures show the number of people seeking work in

Scotland in the three months to July was down by 3000 on the

previous quarter. That means 204,000 Scots were looking for work.

Although the number of people claiming unemployment benefit was

up slightly, these latest figures also found an increase of 23,000

Scots in employment. But it's a much less optimistic picture on the

retail front, where sales have slumped - the second worst annual

drop in 12 years. Let's get some analysis now with our business and

economy editor Douglas Fraser and our political editor Brian Taylor,

who's at Holyrood. Good afternoon, thank you for

joining me. Force of four, Douglas, let's look at these unemployment

figures. Scotland does seem to be faring better than the rest of the

UK. All of this is relative. The figures are still higher than you

would want them to be. But, if you look at where Scotland is that

compared with the UK, particularly Scotland having been in a worse

position for the last 18 months or so, it has now moved into a very

clearly better position. One way of counting it is this labour market

survey, of people looking for jobs over a three-month period. May,

June and July down by 3,000. It is quite a modest improvement, but

nonetheless it is a move in the right direction. All the regions of

England have seen those numbers are going up. But, creeping up is the

number of people on a Jobseeker's Allowance, which is a harder core

of unemployed people. It is a higher threshold to get on to those

numbers. From the other point of view, it is not just about

unemployment, but also employment. If you look at the Scottish economy,

according to these figures, the public sector is shedding a lot of

jobs. Scotland is shedding them faster than the rest of the UK.

Unlike the rest of the UK, Scotland's private sector, which we

tend to be malign -- 10 to malign, is putting on jobs faster than the

rest of the UK, so it's something is going relatively right for the

Scottish economy. What about sales figures, they don't inspire much

confidence on the High Street, do they? They don't. It was bad in May,

the second-worst month since records began. The reason may be

the weather. Also, inflation has eroded people's ability to spend.

For instance, on food spending, the total spending on food has gone up,

but not as fast as a food price inflation has gone up. People are

either buying cheaper food or they are buying less fit. Also, job

insecurity is an issue. In may mean that on big-ticket items in

particular, like furniture, people are reining back. They have been

doing that right to this downturn. These figures are worse even than

the pulling back of spending that we saw in the worst of the

recession three years ago. Brian, before we discuss the economy, you

have got an update on the Edinburgh project. Yes, the minister

responsible has said that the money that was going to be withheld by

the Scottish government for this transport projects, that money, �72

million, is going to be restored. Some intriguing announcements about

the way the project will now be handled and governed. 18 from

transport Scotland will join the team directing and controlling the

trams project and tried to drive this forward. Also, very

significantly, as part of the agreement between the Scottish

government and Edinburgh council, Scottish government ministers will

have the right and power to veto key strategic decisions regarding

the trams. At the same time, they are not taking the financial risk

into the Scottish government. That remains with the local authority.

Thank you for that update. Returning to the economy, you were

at the first minister's briefing this morning. Yes, he was making

the point that he was -- that the Scottish situation with regard to

unemployment and employment is relatively better with regard to

the rest of the UK. He attributed that to the policies being

undertaken by the Scottish government, accelerated capital

spending, access to finance. Also, the security that comes from

offering no compulsory redundancies to those in the public sector who

are directly under Scottish government control. He was calling

for a special plan B from the Chancellor, George Osborne, who

suggested that he should emulate the approach taken by the Scottish

government. Thank you for that. Let's cross to the chamber now and

hear what the Finance Secretary John Swinney is saying.

He has been saying that Scotland is not immune to the global economic

downturn. The public sector has a vital role in helping the economy

emerged from the worst effects of recession, and this update to the

Government's economic strategy is clear priority to accelerating

economic recovery. As the first minister said last week, and as the

cabinet secretary for education has just outlined, we are supporting

our dumb people through a package of new measures. This includes a

guarantee of a place in education and training for all 16-19 year-

olds. The delivery of apprenticeship opportunities in

each year for parliamentary term, and ensuring that access to higher

education is based on the ability to succeed and not the ability to

pay. Where we can, we will protect employment, ease uncertainty, and

promote economic confidence. Our no compulsory redundancies policy does

just that. We will also continue to protect household income as part of

our commitment on the social wage. Economic recovery is a typically

led by investment and we have argued strongly against the

coalition's plans to cut our capital spending by nearly 40% in

real terms. Our previous decision to accelerate capital was a success,

and is estimated to have supported over 5,000 jobs through our

programme of capital acceleration. Where possible, we will prioritise

our spend on capital to maximise the impact of jobs and on the

economy. We will deliver key infrastructure projects, we will

take forward a new Housing Investment Programme, and we will

support additional investment through alternative funding streams

such as our �2.5 billion non-profit distributing programme and the use

of tax incremental financing. We will also work to boost levels of

private investment in the economy through initiatives such as the

Scottish Investment Bank and our national renewables infrastructure

fund. However, as I outlined to the parliament in June, long-term

economic success cannot be supported solely by growth in the

public sector. It is growth and investment in the private sector

that is key to unlocking Scotland's potential and creating

opportunities for all to flourish. The objective... I am glad that Mr

Johnson acknowledges the success of the Government's agenda. If he

wants to get to his feet to endorse it further, he would be welcome to

do so. The objective for the Government is to provide the over

arching economic framework, such as a competitive business environment

and integrated economy, and a skilled and adaptable workforce

which is conducive to sustained economic growth. That is what we

aim to achieve through the Government's economic strategy. We

are focusing our actions on six strategic priorities which will

drive sustainable economic growth and develop a more resilient and

adaptable economy. Our ability to promote prosperity and jobs depends

on the performance of our businesses both large and small.

That is why we are committed to maintaining and further investing

in a supportive business environment. Reflecting the

opportunity we have to take advantage of Scotland's relative

comparative advantage in the local economy, we have established a new

strategic priority of the transition to a low carbon economy,

and I will say more about this shortly. I will give way. Clearly

kit and -- commitment to a low carbon economy it is something

shared. Can you tell us how inclusion in this document changes

the support from the Scottish government on this? What it does is

give the private sector, and also those decision-makers within the

public sector, the absolute clarity of the direction of government

policy. What that means is that went private sector organisations

are looking at the colossal range of investment opportunities that

exist in the low carbon sector within Scotland, whether that is in

offshore renewables sector, whether that is in some of the low carbon

vehicle technologies which some of our companies are pioneering, or

whether it is in some of the initiatives about ensuring that we

maximise the utilisation of energy resources within our country,

private investors can see the Government is absolutely serious

about this approach. Equally, it is the strongest possible signal to

those involved in the public sector that we have to make sure that we

have the skills and labour market composition that will ensure that

the demands of the low carbon economy can be satisfied by the

focus within our higher and further education institutions. In all of

that, it gives policy certainty to the public sector, and clarity to

the private sector for these investments to be undertaken.

cabinet secretary mentioned opportunities for employment

throughout those sectors. Would he agree that it is important to have

more opportunities for young people in those high-growth sectors,

particularly given the UN force should figures we had today of

youth unemployment? -- unfortunate figures? Part of what the

Government has said, indeed, the First Minister's first paragraph of

the statement last week to Parliament was about the importance

of ensuring opportunities for all of our young people. I don't think

the Government could have attached a greater priority to ensuring that

providing opportunities for our young people is fundamental. On a

recent visit I made in the presiding officer's constituency to

the five energy park, it was clear to me the apprenticeship

recruitment that had gone on in that facility was very much linked

to the low carbon economy. I saw more of that at a company I visited

on Monday where substantial apprenticeship opportunities were

being created for young people and the Government would endorse that.

That is my point in response to Mr McDonald, in that of the meaningful

content of this strategy is not to have a glossy document available.

It is to say to the key decision- makers within the public sector

that we expect provision and planning to reflect the contents of

the Government's economic strategy. Our strategic priority... You need

to wind up, Mr Swinney. Sorry, my mistake, you have got 14 minutes.

Thank you, presiding officer. You almost encouraged a very healthy

transformation in my contribution Our focus on infrastructure,

development, seeks to harness our cities and rural areas and we will

ensure Scotland is positioned to take full advantage of the

opportunities offered by the digital age. Our cities are vital

to success and later this year we will introduce a strategy to

support cities and their regions to maximise their potential as engines

of economic growth. Effective government is our next strategic

priority, fundamental to the successful implementation of the

government's economic strategies. It is only by the actions of the

public sector being fully co- ordinated that we can maximise

Scotland's economic potential. Finally, the government makes clear

our commitment to ensuring that growth is characterised by the

achievement of equity. Social, regional and Inter generational, to

ensure that the transformation of our economy is driven by these

characteristics and opportunities. We believe that our strategy should

focus on the key elements of growth companies, growth markets and

growth sectors. We should take initiatives to support the

development of growing companies by the focus of our enterprise

agencies supporting companies in every way we can and by

characteristics of schemes such as the small business bonus scheme to

assist the small-business community in Scotland. The major theme of the

economic strategy is the expansion of international exporting and

business development opportunities and that will be the focus of

Scottish Development International, who will work to support the 1,000

to 10,000 businesses who we recognise need to develop skills to

expand their international activities. This work is

particularly characterised by our focus on the transition to a low

carbon economy, the importance of ensuring Scotland is equipped for

digital infrastructure and that we used the instrument of public

procurement to boost the economic impact of government expenditure.

These will be the central themes of our strategy, we will maximise our

powers. We may Clare our aspiration to have a full range of economic

powers to ensure we can transform the Scottish economy and have it --

deliver the best opportunities for I now call on Richard and Baker --

Richard Baker. You have 10 minutes. We welcome the Scottish

government's economic strategy. This morning there were harsh words

for the refreshed strategy. While we are not unconditionally positive

about the new document, we welcome its publication because while we

have joined with the Scottish government in calling for a Plan B

from the coalition government at Westminster, whose economic

strategy is clearly not working, it is equally important for a new plan

to be put in place in Scotland. We continue to hear from ministers for

the mantra of recession in Scotland and the rest of the UK. The reality

is we continue to be in a powerless economic situation. The last GDP

figures show the Scottish economy on the cusp of returning to a

situation where it was contracting. Growth of only 0.1%, lower than

that of the rest of the UK. Today Scottish from the Scottish Retail

Consortium show the second worst annual drop in sales for 10 years.

Today's employment figures do show an increase in employment and a

drop in unemployment against the UK trend and that is welcome, but

there is absolutely no room for complacency with a significant

increase in the benefits claimant count and youth unemployment up.

Levels not seen since John Major's government in the early 90s. That

is why we have said these economic challenges require a new response

from the Scottish government. Because despite the focus by

ministers on demands for new powers, we heard again at the end of the

speech from the Cabinet Secretary, the Scottish government is far from

Palace in this situation. It has very significant levers at its

disposal to influence our economy. The way it spends the budget is

crucial in shaping our economic fortunes, which is why the Spending

Review to be published next week will also be so important to allow

wider economic future. Our welcome for this document is qualified

because we would have liked to have seen more new thinking given the

new concerns about future developments in the Scottish and

world economy. Many of the initiatives are welcome, but they

are ones which have been previously announced. Of course we can

particularly welcome the proposals which were brought forward by

Scottish Labour. It was refreshing and surprising to read George

cavern of all people giving Labour the credit, rightly, for the

initiatives which have been brought forward on modern apprenticeships.

He could have also given us credit for other policies, like the first

troops scheme for first-time buyers, but I'm sure he will get round to

doing that another time. Let's get some reaction to that now

from my two guests this afternoon - Stephen Boyd from the STUC and John

McLaren from the Centre for Public Policy from the Regions. John, what

do you make of Mr swingy's statement, talking about growth,

growth, growth. That was what he was emphasising. He was. That is

what you would expect him to say. He has to put forward a positive

message. In reality, like in many other parts of the UK and countries

around the world, it is difficult to know where that growth will come

from. The world as a whole is still in recession and it could go into

double-dip. It is not clear where the increased consumption is going

to come from all the investment by companies because there are so many

worrying things still happening, whether it is the euro or American

house prices or debt levels of things like that. The best he can

do at the moment is try to keep the Scottish economy in the shape that

it is well situated for when things pick up. That means keeping skill

levels up and probably keeping productive capacity through

infrastructure going. That is the way he is talking about things. Not

exactly in those terms, but that is what he is trying to do. Mr swingy

is doing his sums for next week for his draft budget and he will have

some very difficult questions to face when it comes to cuts. What do

you think are the possibilities of public-sector redundancies? I have

more reason to doubt the Scottish government's good faith at this

present moment to avoid compulsory redundancies in the public sector

and we have seen efforts from Scottish Labour that we have not

seen replicated across the UK. There is a lot to be answered.

There was a report which was not so different from the last strategy.

As John has said, the UK level is such that the Scottish government's

ability to influence economic growth is very, very limited.

Gummer what do you make of that? We were hearing from Richard Baker

talking about the Scottish government always demanding new

powers. What do you make of that when it comes to the Scottish

government actually working within the powers they have? Well, working

within the powers they have, then it is still quite a lot you can do

in terms of retaining skills in terms of large infrastructure

projects, in terms of pushing renewables. If you have more powers,

there is more potential, but it doesn't mean to say it could do an

awful lot. Fiscal and monetary policy, monetary policy is already

about as low as it could be so there is not much more you could do.

Even if they did have greater control, they would struggle in the

same way the UK government is. The only thing is if they had more

borrowing powers, they could deficit fund things, but that is a

risk as well. But it is another way they could go. One of the other

things that is difficult... Growth sectors that they want to push. But

at the minute in Scotland, some of the sectors like tourism and

financial services are not doing well and they haven't been doing

well for a while. I couldn't see anything in the growth strategy

which shows why they should all of a sudden turn around the

performance and start being providers of taking Scotland

forward. There seems to be a lack of analysis on how these sectors,

important as they are, actually work and what is needed to kick-

start them to make them work better. On the apprenticeships, he was

talking a lot about apprenticeships. How far can we put our eggs in that

one basket when it comes to training to try to stimulate growth

in that way? You're not going to stimulate growth through as

apprenticeships, you will prepare the economy for a robust recovery

when it finally appears. Apprenticeships are a very

important route. Anything the Scottish government can do will be

welcome. You do have to bear in mind that youth unemployment in

Scotland is over 20%. We have seen figures today that clearly the

Scottish government are putting a positive spin on, but there is much

in the figures that is a cause for concern. Apprenticeships, yes, do

what you can, but it is not going to bring the economy round. Thank

you. You're watching Politics Scotland

from the BBC. Still to come on the programme:

How to improve education and vocational training for the over-

16s - the under-pressure Education Secretary will set out his thinking.

The Labour leader, Ed Miliband, says the Government is "the byword

for complacency" on unemployment. Meanwhile at a a lively Prime

Minister's Questions, Sir Peter Tapsell, father of the House, put

on a display of self-caricature by asking about the 18th century

before getting to his question about banks. And the Prime Minister

was even asked about oil revenues Today's figures show that

unemployment is up by 80,000. Does the Prime Minister still think the

British economy is out of the danger zone? First of all, these

unemployment figures are disappointing figures. I don't want

to hide from that. Every last job is a tragedy for that family and I

want to do everything I can and this government will do everything

it can to help those people back into work. That is why we have

360,000 apprenticeships starting this year, that is why we have

10,000 extra university places and that is why in the work programme,

we have the biggest welfare to Work programme this country has seen

since the 1930s. But at the same time, let me say to the right

honourable gentleman it is right that we get on top of our debts and

duller deficits. Her today of all days shows the danger of getting

into a position other European countries are in whether whole

credibility is being questioned. and his government on the byword

for complacency in this country on unemployment. Youth unemployment

was falling at the general election and it has risen on his watch. It

is his responsibility. Women's unemployment, too, is at its

highest level since 1988. Mr Speaker, he is making the situation

work. By cutting the childcare tax credit. How does it make sense,

when unemployment is rising for women, to cut the support that

helps them back into work? Let me just remind the right honourable

gentleman unemployment went up by 40% under the last government.

278,000 more young people unemployed when he was sitting in

the Treasury and breaking our banking system and bankrupting our

economy. That is what people remember. When it comes to

childcare, what this government is doing, and we are the first to do

it, is making sure there are 15 hours of free childcare for every

three year-old and four year-old and we have extended that for every

two year-old. We have focussed the tax credit system on the poorest

people in this country. In the 18 San Shroot -- century it was the...

In the 19th century it was the roofless industrialists humanised

by Shaftesbury. In the 20th century it was the trade union leaders

tamed by Lady Thatcher. In the United States... The federal

authorities are prosecuting a wide swathe of the top banks. When is

that going to happen here? I think the serious point the right

honourable gentleman is making his right, we do need to see

responsibility from our bankers. I rode -- I support what John Vickers

have said in terms of reforms. If people break the law, no matter

where they come from all who they are, they should face the

consequences and be punished. poll last week showed 68% of Scots

want oil revenues devolved to Scotland. Does the Prime Minister

agree that 68% of Scots -- Withe Well, if you ask a stupid question,

you will get a stupid answer! The fact is, the whole of the United

Kingdom rightly has invested in the North Sea. The whole of the United

Kingdom should benefit from the North Sea. I think we should do

everything possible to keep the United Kingdom together because we

are stronger, England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, than we

ever would be separate. Party conference season is almost

upon us for the UK political parties. The TUC have already been

meeting and it's been a challenging time for the Labour leader Ed

Miliband. Let's cross to London and to our correspondent David Porter

who's gauging the mood at Westminster.

At times like this I am reminded to use that old political adage, it is

the economy stupid, and with unemployment rising, the euro

economy in dire straits, and the trade unions are threatening strike

action, there is no shortage of things for the Government, and

indeed ammunition for the opposition parties. No shortage of

things either to discuss. I am joined by two political

commentators. Catherine, let me start with you. Unemployment

figures out today. You know from your time when you were advising

Alistair Darling in the Treasury, when unemployment is rising, it is

never a good time for the Government, is it? No, it is a

terrible time for the Government went to 0.5 million people are

unemployed and they will be very worried about it. George Osborne

will be thinking very hard about how he can rectify the situation. I

don't know if he can do that without changing his plan, because

up until now he has been hell bent on cutting the deficit, which he

certainly has to do, but perhaps he has got to do something else as

well. It was noticeable that today at Prime Minister's Questions that

there was not even one iota of a plan B. You get the impression they

are battening down the hatches on this one. They are trying to

maintain an aura of stability. I'm not sure David Cameron did that

today. He seemed tired after his Moscow trip and had not really

prepared for premises questions, and he seemed to be constantly on

the defensive. It feels that it is very much a government fighting on

every front at the moment, and as a result there is a feeling of

disarray. That is the opposite - they need to create the idea of

stability. Opposite to him was Ed Miliband, who did all right, but I

still don't know myself quite what Labour's economic policy. As long

as that uncertainty prevails, I think David Cameron is OK. You talk

about the trade unions, and you can already see as a newspaperman the

headline writers writing winter of discontent, but how serious do you

see this in political and economic terms? The trade unions are trying

to top this up. Yesterday, Ed Miliband went to the TUC and got

tackled. I think that draws him water was the centre ground if he

is an opposition to the unions, but is it actually going to happen? Are

we going to have a bad winter? Let's hope not. It is a tricky one

for Labour this, isn't it? Ed Miliband can't condone the strikes,

but he knows that is what his union friends want him to do. Yes, it is

very tricky for Ed Miliband. He will not want them to strike. He

will think that they will be taking the moral high ground away from him

because I think the economic figures are not going to get any

better. We are going to get higher unemployment. Ed Miliband will want

to capitalise on these figures if the trade unions persist in having

a strike, and it is believed that they will, then that will just

detract from his positioning. are about to come to the party

political conferences, when the Westminster decant to various

cities throughout the UK. It will be one of those areas where there

will be mixed fortunes for all of the main parties, I went there?

Miliband has to overcome deep held scepticism within his own party

that he could be the next prime minister. I think David Cameron has

to reassure the Tories before he reassures anyone else that he is on

course. I think a lot of Tories in Parliament are jittery because they

don't know what he is standing for. And Nick Clegg has got to convince

the Lib Dems that they have not sold out, that they are not their

letting the Tories run riot in the country. It is a bit of a false

world when we all go to conference... It is absolutely

bonkers. The party conferences are mad, particularly this year. It is

going to be most peculiar. But we are all going to be, as a political

journalistic class, we are going to be obsessing about these tensions.

Are they going to have any real effect on the economy and on

Britain's prospects? I suspect not. For a question briefly to both of

you. Party conferences aside, whatever happens, British economy -

- the British economy is in for hard graft, isn't it? I think it is.

There is any so much that David Cameron and George Osborne can do.

Events -- it matters they much what happens in Europe and America. In a

way, they are bobbing along in the wake of these catastrophic events

that are happening in Europe and America, and they should not be

underestimated. It strikes me that we are still living in a dream and.

We don't quite understand the effect that the changes are going

to have, the reductions in public spending. I think a lot of people

have not quite grasped what is about to happen. Thank you both for

joining me. We will be packing up shortly to go to that of bonkers

world, better known as the party conferences. David, thank you for

that. Back to Holyrood now, and a major

announcement by the Education Secretary Michael Russell on

Apology for the loss of subtitles for 81 seconds

I think a lot of the things around education and training are up

complicated. We need to simplify this. We can deliver that bed and

an income and that is important because we want to make sure that

young people are not deterred from study. A lot of the noise

surrounding further and higher education is deterring young people

because secure these ludicrous figures. We are trying to focus

people on the opportunities in front of them and the opportunities

that leads to. We will get onto those charges but staying with

colleges, you talk about mergers. What would that mean in practice?

They will undoubtedly been job losses. It will mean greater

efficiency in delivering. We have talked in the paper about a

regional model and we need to move to that model to make sure resource

goes into the frontline and we encourage colleges to have a policy

of no compulsory redundancies. So we have challenges but I am sure we

can meet them with imagination. Let's turn to those charges. Would

you agree with the First Minister? He said, would you prefer a more

moderate approach? Yes, he is right. We have not seen the conclusion of

this process. We have not yet had half of the university's... We have

had a significant ones. It seems to be running out of control? We have

had the ones who were always going to be at the top end. We have had

less than half of them. Let us see what the springs at the end, the --

expectations of the technical working group, we have to see what

happens and the First Minister is right to express his disappointment

and we share that. We have been looking at unemployment in the

programme. This has been a very poor area for the SNP. Labour

claimed it has increased by 89% since the SNP to power. Will these

measures really address the problem? Accuracy is all,

particularly for journalists. Today is a good news story, youth

unemployment actually is better than we have done. Better than

governments have done, particularly well in delivering training. When

Labour quote figures, it is best to check them and I find they are

usually not accurate. Thank you very much for joining us. Let's get

accurate analysis from our guests. John McLaren and Stephen Boyd from

the STUC. Stephen, I will ask you about youth unemployment. He did

not think the figures from Labour were correct. Is this a problem

that is concerning for the prop -- the country? Absolutely. The worst

thing that can happen to a person of any age is to spend an extended

period of time unemployed. It has a massive impact on their future life.

It is very expensive to the country. In a social sense and economic. We

should be very concerned about this and I will not get involved in any

political debate about figures. It is far too high in Scotland and

that has increased significantly over the last couple of years.

have focused on the economy and employment. We hear about this in

terms of the world economy and the French banks and the credit rating.

There are meetings in Brussels to discuss the Greek debt. In terms of

the global economy, or be on the brink of an abyss? -- are we.

difficult to tell how it that it could get. I saw in 2008 when it

really got bad it was not predicted, we thought 2007 was a turning point.

Any sort of catastrophic change will probably come out of there

fairly clear sky but what is more worrying is it is difficult to see

were any upturn welcome from. I cannot see it the European

situation and Greece being sorted out in any way that they want. Only

in a way that they do not want. With something bad happening to

Greece. Nobody wants that so it will keep on going for months and

years and that means the uncertainty keeps on going. It is

difficult to build confidence. But in America, they are not really

planning, never mind in short-term, in the long term, to balance the

budget and house prices are still falling so there is a lot of

negative still going on. And the markets are not confident they have

this sort it out. Until that changes, and we can get confidence

that we know what will happen, there will remain a lot of sluggish

growth and even if things get better, I do not think growth will

rocket. It will be a prelude to another fall. We are going in for

more than one decade of slow growth. We can see tutors and the market,

civil unrest with the England riots and that good old cliche of the

winter of discontent. The public sector workers going on strike. How

bad could these strikes be in Britain? It would be irresponsible

to speculate. Despite everything that has been said, negotiations

will continue so it isn't inevitable these strikes will ochre

and it is fair to say that there is a wave of anger among ordinary

trade union members that is very high at this moment. They have seen

wages falling significantly and job prospects following and pensions

attacked and they are being encouraged to go see it by Mr

Miliband and others and the indexation of pensions was not

changed without any negotiation. Quite how this will transpire

during the course of the winter is difficult to say. It is possible we

will see strike action and it might not be as bad as we feel. We have

seen leaders calling for strikes not to happen, including Ed

Miliband. How far has has been promoted by the trade union leaders

themselves? The BBC website has a comment from a reader who said the

main civil service trade union is dominated by a left wing group. How

much is being governed from the top and do the workers really want to

be on strike? It is interesting. We have seen massive changes to that

trade union legislation and the simple fact is, trade union leaders

cannot take the unions out on strike in the win over told they

used to do. -- in the way we were told. It happens in an informal --

formal and secret ballot. And leaders simply are not able to do

this in the way described by newspapers. The PCAS should point

that out. The anger amongst members is understandable. They are

effectively organised and if encouraged to band it, there is