Browse content similar to 18/12/2013. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Hello and welcome to the last Politics Scotland of 2013. Coming | :00:18. | :00:22. | |
up... Good news on the employment figures, | :00:23. | :00:26. | |
with more people in a job, but pay still lags behind inflation. | :00:27. | :00:29. | |
With Christmas round the corner, MSPs debate new plans to tackle | :00:30. | :00:40. | |
payday loans - we'll have that live. At Westminster, claim and | :00:41. | :00:45. | |
counterclaim over the health of Scottish finances. | :00:46. | :00:49. | |
And as it's our last show we take a look at the A to Z of 2013 with our | :00:50. | :00:53. | |
panel of guests. But first, the number of Scots | :00:54. | :00:56. | |
seeking work in August to October was down by 7000, while the number | :00:57. | :01:01. | |
of people in work was up. That is in line with the figures for the UK as | :01:02. | :01:05. | |
a whole, though pay continues to lag behind inflation. Here is our | :01:06. | :01:07. | |
business and economy editor, Douglas Fraser. | :01:08. | :01:11. | |
There is some Christmas cheer from today's figures, even as they cover | :01:12. | :01:15. | |
August to October. The number of Scots seeking work down by 7000 to | :01:16. | :01:24. | |
196,000. 99,000 fewer in the UK seeking work. In Scotland the | :01:25. | :01:28. | |
unemployment rate has reached 7.1% and the UK rate is down to 7.4%, | :01:29. | :01:36. | |
down to the 7% which the Bank of England has said could signal | :01:37. | :01:39. | |
sufficient economic recovery for interest rates to start writing | :01:40. | :01:45. | |
again. With 11,000 more Scots in work on the Scottish Government is | :01:46. | :01:48. | |
highlighting a record number of Scots women working. We now have | :01:49. | :01:57. | |
more women in employment than any of - ever before, in excess of 1.2 | :01:58. | :02:03. | |
million which is really good news. It is that increase that is driving | :02:04. | :02:10. | |
the overall increase in employment. The data also includes pay and it | :02:11. | :02:18. | |
was up in the year to October by 0.9%, still short of the inflation | :02:19. | :02:22. | |
rate. Real spending power is still being squeezed. | :02:23. | :02:26. | |
Let's discuss this a bit further now with our guests for the afternoon, | :02:27. | :02:29. | |
the political commentator Alf Young and Gillian Bowditch from The Sunday | :02:30. | :02:38. | |
Times. Good afternoon. Alf, looking at these figures, it is pretty good | :02:39. | :02:43. | |
news for the economy. Yes, in general terms it is good news and | :02:44. | :02:46. | |
for many people quite surprising news in terms of jobs it is recovery | :02:47. | :02:53. | |
is still quite slack. There is a recovery in output but the fact that | :02:54. | :02:58. | |
the market is as resilient as it appears to be as good news. It | :02:59. | :03:03. | |
appears to be in line with the rest of the UK. The improvement is | :03:04. | :03:10. | |
Scotland is slightly better in terms of the jobless rate. -- in Scotland. | :03:11. | :03:15. | |
In terms of new jobs being created, pretty similar. The Scottish number | :03:16. | :03:23. | |
and the UK number both mask huge variation in the country at large. | :03:24. | :03:27. | |
In the north East of England unemployment is still under 10%. In | :03:28. | :03:34. | |
Aberdeenshire it is maybe down to 1%, 2%. You have enormous variation. | :03:35. | :03:41. | |
Gillian, seeing in the film that there is record numbers of women in | :03:42. | :03:47. | |
employment since the records started being taken 21 years ago. That is to | :03:48. | :03:54. | |
be welcomed obviously. We still have a situation where wages for women | :03:55. | :03:58. | |
tend to lack behind and more women are in part-time work, but very good | :03:59. | :04:06. | |
news and certainly for women who have wanted to get back into the | :04:07. | :04:09. | |
workforce after perhaps having children or their husbands being | :04:10. | :04:14. | |
affected by the recession, it is good that these jobs are available. | :04:15. | :04:17. | |
It is interesting about wages because they are short of inflation | :04:18. | :04:25. | |
so pay is still being squeezed. Living standards are being squeezed | :04:26. | :04:30. | |
because people are not making enough to make up for the rise in prices. | :04:31. | :04:34. | |
That is part of the dynamic, not just that the economy is creating | :04:35. | :04:38. | |
the jobs but that women are seeking to go out to work because it is a | :04:39. | :04:50. | |
necessity. We are also finding significant numbers of older people | :04:51. | :04:54. | |
going back to work, although they are in receipt of the state pension, | :04:55. | :04:58. | |
because they need to supplement it to pay for energy bills and the | :04:59. | :05:03. | |
rest. There are a number of dynamisms at work. We have good | :05:04. | :05:11. | |
figures, Gillian, in unemployment, maybe growth coming back in, but the | :05:12. | :05:16. | |
cost of living fright -- crisis is as Labour frame said. The | :05:17. | :05:23. | |
Conservatives and the SNP can both claimed they have helped to drive | :05:24. | :05:28. | |
these figures, Ed Miliband can complain about the very real | :05:29. | :05:32. | |
squeezed the families. Plenty for politicians to get their teeth into. | :05:33. | :05:38. | |
We will see you both shortly. Let's get some political reaction to | :05:39. | :05:43. | |
this. We will cross live to Holyrood and join the SNP's Kevin Stewart, | :05:44. | :05:46. | |
Liam McArthur from the Liberal Democrats and Labour's Ken | :05:47. | :05:47. | |
Macintosh. It is the time of year when we are | :05:48. | :05:51. | |
all spending extra but there is concern about what happens when that | :05:52. | :06:03. | |
gets out of control. Good news for the Scottish and | :06:04. | :06:09. | |
British governments. Unemployment is lower in Scotland than the rest of | :06:10. | :06:14. | |
the UK and that is extremely good news but I still think we could do | :06:15. | :06:18. | |
more if we had all of the levers of power of an independent country. For | :06:19. | :06:24. | |
me, the particularly good news in all of this is the fact that women | :06:25. | :06:29. | |
in employment is at its highest since records began. We could do | :06:30. | :06:35. | |
even better there as well if we had independence. In Denmark, 79% of | :06:36. | :06:43. | |
women with children under six are in employment. In the UK it is only | :06:44. | :06:48. | |
59%. With independence we could do much better. We can put that to Liam | :06:49. | :06:56. | |
McArthur. Good news for the UK economy as a whole but let's look at | :06:57. | :07:03. | |
what he was saying, mentioning childcare, a key divide it in the | :07:04. | :07:08. | |
independence debate. How could the economy improved if we take on what | :07:09. | :07:13. | |
the SNP are saying? Kevin is right, it is a good news in Scotland and in | :07:14. | :07:18. | |
the UK and it justifies the difficult but necessary decisions we | :07:19. | :07:22. | |
have taken in relation to the UK economy. I am interested that | :07:23. | :07:30. | |
childcare has been chosen by the SNP as a flagship dividing line in the | :07:31. | :07:34. | |
debate around breaking up the UK. We have all of the powers we need to | :07:35. | :07:39. | |
deliver childcare now, it is about political choices and the choice the | :07:40. | :07:43. | |
government has made is in relation to extending provision to | :07:44. | :07:48. | |
two-year-olds, which is happening south of the border, but the SNP | :07:49. | :07:53. | |
have decided to hold that hostage in return for a yes vote next year. I | :07:54. | :07:58. | |
think that will be seen as passing strange by not just women in | :07:59. | :08:02. | |
Scotland but parents right across Scotland. Why doesn't the Scottish | :08:03. | :08:09. | |
Government just do it now? The difficulty is that we don't control | :08:10. | :08:12. | |
our finances at this moment in time. The extra taxation could be | :08:13. | :08:20. | |
put in to provide more childcare. I would have more respect for him and | :08:21. | :08:25. | |
his colleagues if they said that the Treasury would guarantee that any | :08:26. | :08:28. | |
money made would comeback to Scotland to fund the policy. They | :08:29. | :08:35. | |
won't make that promise. Liam McArthur, the Treasury give ring a | :08:36. | :08:41. | |
promised that the extra money will go for a living. -- giving. We have | :08:42. | :08:51. | |
had previous on this. We have the powers to deal with this now. We | :08:52. | :08:57. | |
have eight children and young people Bill who has -- which has the | :08:58. | :09:02. | |
opportunity to put this in practice so the SNP government has to deal | :09:03. | :09:06. | |
with this instead of holding it hostage. Ken Macintosh, back on | :09:07. | :09:12. | |
track with the economy, perhaps rather awkward figures that Ed | :09:13. | :09:17. | |
Miliband today at PMQs. He welcomes the good news about the figures but | :09:18. | :09:21. | |
you are still pursuing the cost of living crisis when it looks like the | :09:22. | :09:26. | |
economy is growing. There is a cost of living crisis and it is right for | :09:27. | :09:29. | |
us to talk about the issues that worry people. The ferry to the last | :09:30. | :09:34. | |
interchange, it worries me that Kevin Stewart basically seems to be | :09:35. | :09:38. | |
more concerned with the income that this policy would generate for the | :09:39. | :09:42. | |
Scottish Government than the fact that it would help women back into | :09:43. | :09:58. | |
work. That is nonsense. This is not a political story, it is about what | :09:59. | :10:03. | |
it means to people. Whether Scotland or England is doing better is beside | :10:04. | :10:07. | |
the point. At the moment there are 75,000 people not in work from the | :10:08. | :10:16. | |
pre-recession hi. This is not anything that can be described as | :10:17. | :10:22. | |
first class. It is a very difficult time for most people. If you look | :10:23. | :10:26. | |
beyond the headline figures, there are some quite worrying news today. | :10:27. | :10:31. | |
The economic activity level has increased by 10000 and long-term | :10:32. | :10:41. | |
youth unemployment has increased. -- economic inactivity. The people with | :10:42. | :10:47. | |
temporary jobs has gone up. People are going back to temporary, | :10:48. | :10:52. | |
insecure, irregular work. Rather like the number of women in | :10:53. | :10:57. | |
employment going up, it is a news story but it is probably the case | :10:58. | :11:01. | |
that many families are having to go back to the workplace to supplement | :11:02. | :11:04. | |
their earnings because they are feeling squeezed. Another issue | :11:05. | :11:13. | |
related to that, you will be debating the Bankruptcy and Debt | :11:14. | :11:16. | |
Advice Bill, people turning to payday loan lenders. How will this | :11:17. | :11:19. | |
help people in financial trouble, Kevin Stewart? I think this bill | :11:20. | :11:25. | |
creates a financial health service to try to ensure that people do not | :11:26. | :11:31. | |
get into debt. I would say that the government's 12 days of debt | :11:32. | :11:37. | |
campaign is a particularly good one and I think there has been a lot of | :11:38. | :11:42. | |
response to that. However, one of the things that drive spoke into | :11:43. | :11:47. | |
debt is payday loan companies. One of the disappointing things is that | :11:48. | :11:52. | |
the Westminster government refuses to cap those companies until the 1st | :11:53. | :11:57. | |
of January 2015. I think there should be brought forward. Beyond | :11:58. | :12:02. | |
that, the Westminster government's welfare reform policies will also | :12:03. | :12:05. | |
drive more and more people into debt. Let's put that to Liam | :12:06. | :12:11. | |
McArthur. It is being debated this afternoon in Parliament at | :12:12. | :12:15. | |
Westminster could be taking action just now? In terms of the welfare | :12:16. | :12:21. | |
reform process, what we have seen from the SNP is absolutely no detail | :12:22. | :12:26. | |
on the alternative provisions they would bring forward. They have not | :12:27. | :12:32. | |
explained how they would plug the ?2.5 billion gap in our finances and | :12:33. | :12:37. | |
indeed they have acknowledged the need to reform welfare and make it | :12:38. | :12:41. | |
simpler without abiding any detail so I think it lacks any credibility | :12:42. | :12:48. | |
and is a black hole in the middle of the white paper. In terms of this | :12:49. | :12:52. | |
afternoon's proceedings, it is generally cross-party support for | :12:53. | :12:58. | |
work in this area, we do need to ensure, as Kevin said, that people | :12:59. | :13:03. | |
do not fall into debt in the first place and there are measures to be | :13:04. | :13:07. | |
taken in terms of improving advice they are getting. There is concern | :13:08. | :13:11. | |
about extending the payback period the debt to four years. I know it is | :13:12. | :13:17. | |
a fine balance between those in debt and those who are owed but concerns | :13:18. | :13:21. | |
are legitimately being raised about extending that to four years and | :13:22. | :13:27. | |
whether that would not increase the problems for those who are trying to | :13:28. | :13:34. | |
get out of debt. Is There Cross-party Consensus On This Bill? | :13:35. | :13:38. | |
There Are Some Concerns About Citizens Advice And People Like That | :13:39. | :13:43. | |
Not Been Given Enough Money. It Is Not Cross-party Consensus. What | :13:44. | :13:49. | |
Worries Me Is There Has Not Been a chance to do something in | :13:50. | :13:55. | |
Parliament. This will increase the major in bankruptcy. Kevin can talk | :13:56. | :13:58. | |
about is what Westminster should do. Why doesn't this using social | :13:59. | :14:03. | |
advertising funds to tackle these payday lenders? Why don't we extend | :14:04. | :14:07. | |
the loan guarantee fund to credit unions to provide practical support? | :14:08. | :14:11. | |
This Bill this afternoon does nothing, absolutely nothing to help | :14:12. | :14:15. | |
people with debt. Instead, my suspicion is it is about funding | :14:16. | :14:22. | |
bankruptcy and taking it from the Government books. It doesn't help | :14:23. | :14:27. | |
people who are struggling. If the reaction of the SNP in every | :14:28. | :14:29. | |
situation is to say, what should Westminster do? I despair. We have | :14:30. | :14:40. | |
to leave it there. Gentleman, thank you very much for joining me. | :14:41. | :14:48. | |
It is that time of year when we are all spending extra, but there's | :14:49. | :14:51. | |
concern about what happens when that gets out of control. MSPs are | :14:52. | :14:54. | |
debating the Bankruptcy and Debt Advice Bill in the chamber this | :14:55. | :14:57. | |
afternoon. It's the stage one debate and it's expected to pass its first | :14:58. | :15:00. | |
Parliamentary hurdle. Let's listen in to that now. The ministers | :15:01. | :15:06. | |
speaking for the Scottish Government. | :15:07. | :15:12. | |
We will see what we can do at stage two in order to achieve that. We | :15:13. | :15:17. | |
take the kick two technical criticisms made by somebody is on | :15:18. | :15:21. | |
this aspect of the Bill very seriously, of course. The committee | :15:22. | :15:26. | |
has passed on concerns about the ?10,000 threshold for entry into the | :15:27. | :15:32. | |
minimum assets process. Our new boot two route into bankruptcy by | :15:33. | :15:39. | |
debtors. I am happy to say they will be back in January with an amendment | :15:40. | :15:42. | |
to raise the maximum debt level. We propose an increase to ?17,000, an | :15:43. | :15:47. | |
increase which would set the threshold high enough to enable 75% | :15:48. | :15:52. | |
of all current cases to enter the MEP process. I hope this will | :15:53. | :15:58. | |
provide the necessary assurance that this important debt relief will be | :15:59. | :16:03. | |
available to those who need it most. The committee has raised the | :16:04. | :16:05. | |
important issue of bank accounts for and discharged debtors. It is | :16:06. | :16:11. | |
important we look at this and do what we can to make the necessary | :16:12. | :16:14. | |
provision during the amending stages and I have written to the British | :16:15. | :16:18. | |
banking Association to enlist their support. Of course, there are a | :16:19. | :16:22. | |
number of areas where the committee has agreed with the Scottish | :16:23. | :16:26. | |
Government. I am pleased that the committee has agreed a proposal to | :16:27. | :16:30. | |
extend the payment period after bankruptcy to cover 48 monthly | :16:31. | :16:34. | |
payments. I know, presiding Officer, that not everyone supports | :16:35. | :16:37. | |
this proposal, but it is important to have a debate on the basis of the | :16:38. | :16:45. | |
facts. First, it is not correct to say that this change will mean that | :16:46. | :16:49. | |
people in Scotland will have to pay back more to creditors than in any | :16:50. | :16:54. | |
other part of the UK. This is because there are insolvency | :16:55. | :16:58. | |
measures elsewhere in England and Wales such as individual voluntary | :16:59. | :17:03. | |
arrangements will the payment period is not four years, but is usually | :17:04. | :17:11. | |
five years. Second, at the same time as this change comes into force, we | :17:12. | :17:16. | |
will be fixing the common financial statement which is already | :17:17. | :17:19. | |
applicable in respect of some cases and from November in other cases, | :17:20. | :17:24. | |
which is run by the money advice trust, as the Scottish common | :17:25. | :17:29. | |
financial tool. This is important because it means contributions will | :17:30. | :17:32. | |
be set according to a consistent, transparent termination. Our | :17:33. | :17:40. | |
research has shown the should sit down might mean a more sustainable | :17:41. | :17:44. | |
level of contributions. We also recognise the importance of | :17:45. | :17:48. | |
providing guidance on the practical ordination of the tool to ensure it | :17:49. | :17:51. | |
works in practice. But, it is not true to say that longer payment | :17:52. | :17:59. | |
periods automatically lead to an... -- lead to an increase. We have had | :18:00. | :18:09. | |
reasonable stability since 2012 with 3% approximately. 3% of breakage is | :18:10. | :18:15. | |
approximately means that it is 97% of cases which are ordered -- or not | :18:16. | :18:24. | |
or tempered with the debtor and the debtor pays off his debts in full. | :18:25. | :18:29. | |
That strongly to be welcomed. I will do so in a minute, because as | :18:30. | :18:34. | |
paragraph 34 says, one of the objectors of this Bill is that those | :18:35. | :18:40. | |
who can pay should be. I will take intervention. Thank you. It is my | :18:41. | :18:49. | |
understanding that the European Commission has recommended that the | :18:50. | :18:54. | |
payment periods should in principle be 1-3 years and no longer than | :18:55. | :18:56. | |
three years. I understand that nowhere else in the UK we have a | :18:57. | :19:00. | |
payment period longer than three years. Why has the Scottish | :19:01. | :19:05. | |
Government recommended, against advice of many of the people I gave | :19:06. | :19:14. | |
advice to the committee? I have to correct the member on a number of | :19:15. | :19:18. | |
respects. First of all, Savannah 's advice to the Scottish Government, | :19:19. | :19:24. | |
-- so far as the advice to the Scottish Government, 42 members of | :19:25. | :19:32. | |
the Commission supported a four-year option. It is plainly a compromise | :19:33. | :19:37. | |
but the majority supported five years. Secondly, she said that in | :19:38. | :19:44. | |
England they do not pay for as long. Perhaps she was not listening to | :19:45. | :19:48. | |
what I said a moment ago. I said that individual voluntary | :19:49. | :19:54. | |
arrangements, which are agreements payable in England and Wales, | :19:55. | :20:00. | |
usually last for five years. That is longer than four years, not shorter. | :20:01. | :20:09. | |
I am afraid that those who argue that the position in England is that | :20:10. | :20:14. | |
debtors pay for a longer period are not taking account of the facts that | :20:15. | :20:19. | |
the opposite is the case because individual voluntary arrangements | :20:20. | :20:23. | |
usually, not always, for various technical reasons, but usually last | :20:24. | :20:30. | |
for five years. I will take intervention in a moment. I | :20:31. | :20:35. | |
understand that as a campaign mounted by the Labour Party, and I | :20:36. | :20:40. | |
would suggest you take advice from Tam DL, who knew a bit about | :20:41. | :20:43. | |
campaigning, which is that the first thing that should do in a campaign | :20:44. | :20:52. | |
is get your facts right. I wonder if the Minister would recognise that is | :20:53. | :20:54. | |
a difference between an individual voluntary agreement and bankruptcy | :20:55. | :20:57. | |
and what he is in fact doing is comparing apples with oranges? No, I | :20:58. | :21:02. | |
am very sorry to have to disagree, because I respect the strong passion | :21:03. | :21:07. | |
she brings to this topic and the work she does. It is simply not | :21:08. | :21:11. | |
correct to say that we are comparing like with unlike. Individual | :21:12. | :21:17. | |
voluntary arrangements are cleverly comparable with the insolvency | :21:18. | :21:21. | |
arrangements in Scotland and the truth is that this is a campaign | :21:22. | :21:27. | |
which has got off to a faltering start because it is not founded on | :21:28. | :21:36. | |
backs. -- on facts. I have the analysis of the consultation in | :21:37. | :21:39. | |
front of me. The question is posed, if yes, what would that extension | :21:40. | :21:46. | |
be? But the qualifying note under it says the majority of respondents who | :21:47. | :21:49. | |
answered this question felt that an extension was not necessary. They | :21:50. | :21:58. | |
answered only hypothetical point. Would the Minister committed to | :21:59. | :22:03. | |
going away and looking at the accountants and bankruptcy analysis | :22:04. | :22:08. | |
again? No, I will not, because I have it in front of me. I rather | :22:09. | :22:18. | |
thought this topic might come up. Question 10.41A, three or four | :22:19. | :22:30. | |
years? The answer was 27. The answer to five years, that was 32. More | :22:31. | :22:39. | |
than three years. There was a majority for a longer period than | :22:40. | :22:42. | |
they propose. You could say that the numbers are evenly matched between | :22:43. | :22:47. | |
three and five years. If you do, it is difficult to see how it would be | :22:48. | :22:50. | |
unreasonable to come forward with four years as a compromise, as it is | :22:51. | :22:56. | |
exactly a Goodison Park team three and five years. -- as it is Ecuador | :22:57. | :23:12. | |
cousin -- as it is equity soon. To Prime Minister's Questions now | :23:13. | :23:15. | |
and David Cameron told the Commons the fall in unemployment showed the | :23:16. | :23:18. | |
Government's economic plans were working. Ed Miliband welcomed the | :23:19. | :23:21. | |
figures but said that too many people were in part-time or low-paid | :23:22. | :23:24. | |
work. There were a few festive turkey jokes too. | :23:25. | :23:26. | |
Today's economic figures show a welcome fall in unemployment. And | :23:27. | :23:33. | |
for every person... For every person that gets back into work, it | :23:34. | :23:37. | |
benefits not just them by the family as well. Does he agree with me that | :23:38. | :23:42. | |
it is a major challenge for a Britain that at the end of this | :23:43. | :23:44. | |
year, there are more people than ever before in today's figures | :23:45. | :23:47. | |
working part-time because they cannot get hours they need? First of | :23:48. | :23:54. | |
all, I think it is worth looking at these unemployment details and some | :23:55. | :23:59. | |
detail, because they paid an encouraging figure. An appointment | :24:00. | :24:05. | |
is down by 95,000. The number of people claiming unemployment benefit | :24:06. | :24:07. | |
has fallen by 36,000 in this month alone. There are 250,000 more people | :24:08. | :24:14. | |
in work. Youth unemployment is down, long-term unemployment is down, | :24:15. | :24:18. | |
unemployment amongst women is down. We have talked before about 1 | :24:19. | :24:21. | |
million more people in work under this Government. It is now 1.2 | :24:22. | :24:26. | |
million more people in work. Now, there shouldn't be one ounce of | :24:27. | :24:32. | |
complacency because we have still got work to do to get our country | :24:33. | :24:36. | |
back to work and everyone back in work. It means greater stability for | :24:37. | :24:40. | |
them, greater ability to plan for the future, greater help for their | :24:41. | :24:45. | |
families. The thing they want to talk about waste of all is the cost | :24:46. | :24:48. | |
of living crisis facing families up and down the country. That is | :24:49. | :24:52. | |
because they know families are worse off. Can he tell us, how much higher | :24:53. | :24:58. | |
is the average gas and electricity Bill this Christmas compared to | :24:59. | :25:03. | |
last? They have a programme which will clearly leads to the | :25:04. | :25:08. | |
disappearance of 1 million jobs. Now we have 1.6 million more | :25:09. | :25:12. | |
private-sector jobs, 1.2 million more people in work, it is time he | :25:13. | :25:16. | |
apologised for his prediction of talking the economy going. -- | :25:17. | :25:24. | |
talking the economy down. Let us compare our records the cost of | :25:25. | :25:27. | |
living. They doubled council tax, we have frozen it. They put up Vettel | :25:28. | :25:33. | |
tax 12 times, and we have frozen it. They put up the basic state pension | :25:34. | :25:40. | |
eye 75p, up be increased by ?15. We have a new hand gesture from the | :25:41. | :25:50. | |
Shadow Chancellor. After today's breathing in the papers, the gesture | :25:51. | :25:57. | |
should be goodbye. You do not need it to be Christmas to know you're | :25:58. | :26:05. | |
sitting next to a turkey. I can give the House something to cheer about. | :26:06. | :26:09. | |
Will the Prime Minister join with me in welcoming the fact that | :26:10. | :26:12. | |
investment in our oil and gas industry will reach a record | :26:13. | :26:17. | |
amount, counting for an unemployment rate in my constituency of just 7%? | :26:18. | :26:22. | |
Is he aware of the report that says we need collaboration between | :26:23. | :26:27. | |
Government and industry to unlock barrels of oil worth ?200 billion | :26:28. | :26:31. | |
which would otherwise be left in that the sea. It is an excellent | :26:32. | :26:37. | |
support and we are looking to put that in place. We want to maximise | :26:38. | :26:40. | |
the returns and employment and investment in the North Sea. In | :26:41. | :26:45. | |
recent months, we have seen encouraging signs of greater | :26:46. | :26:48. | |
investment in a North Sea, not least because of the decisions taken by | :26:49. | :26:51. | |
the chance to bring into play some of these more marginal fields. We | :26:52. | :26:55. | |
need to keep that up and lament that report. -- implement that report. | :26:56. | :27:00. | |
Let's stay down at Westminster and speak to our correspondent David | :27:01. | :27:03. | |
Porter, who's standing by on College Green. Thanks for joining us. An | :27:04. | :27:09. | |
issue that didn't come up at Prime Minister 's questions but has been | :27:10. | :27:12. | |
talked about quite a lot at Westminster today is nutritionally | :27:13. | :27:17. | |
figures which claim to show a big funding gap in the Scottish | :27:18. | :27:20. | |
Government's white paper. What is the story here? Since the | :27:21. | :27:25. | |
publication of this white paper by the Scottish Government on | :27:26. | :27:30. | |
independence, the people at the Treasury have been looking at the | :27:31. | :27:36. | |
Cal Deuters number crunching. They came up with figures which would | :27:37. | :27:43. | |
suggest a large black hole in the Scottish budget if they went | :27:44. | :27:47. | |
independent. They have estimated that if you add up the cost of | :27:48. | :27:49. | |
childcare provision, reduce air passenger duty, and corporation tax, | :27:50. | :27:55. | |
but the Scottish Government could be left with the black hole of ?1.6 | :27:56. | :28:01. | |
billion in their budget. They say this would either have to be filled | :28:02. | :28:06. | |
by expenditure cuts or tax rises or something like that. The Scottish | :28:07. | :28:10. | |
Government have been quick to react. They accuse the UK Government's | :28:11. | :28:16. | |
figures of being all over the place. They say the Treasury figures do not | :28:17. | :28:19. | |
take into any account the fact that if you have better child provision, | :28:20. | :28:24. | |
for instance, you get more women back in the workforce and more | :28:25. | :28:27. | |
people paying tax. They say that the measures will help boost the | :28:28. | :28:35. | |
economy. What we are seeing is an old-fashioned argument about | :28:36. | :28:42. | |
spending and what Westminster and Holyrood are arguing about. We will | :28:43. | :28:48. | |
hear more about this in 2014. It feels like we have been here | :28:49. | :29:00. | |
before, with all of the black holes around, which has now come down to | :29:01. | :29:06. | |
1.6 billion. It seems like that doing and froing that happens | :29:07. | :29:11. | |
because of the referendum next year. Yes, all sides take the statistics | :29:12. | :29:15. | |
which they think are going to be important to them and make a case | :29:16. | :29:21. | |
from that. On one level it is political rhetoric, on the other | :29:22. | :29:24. | |
level it is important because when people vote in September they will | :29:25. | :29:29. | |
probably vote on the emotional argument but also probably on the | :29:30. | :29:33. | |
economic questions, whether they feel they will be better off or not | :29:34. | :29:37. | |
in an independent Scotland. Whoever wins the economic battle will feel | :29:38. | :29:44. | |
like they have done well. That is why both sides are fighting so hard | :29:45. | :29:50. | |
for this ground. Let's turn our attention back to PMQs. David | :29:51. | :29:55. | |
Cameron seemed to destroy the Labour opposition, waving farewell to Ed | :29:56. | :30:01. | |
balls, because of a briefing that has been in the Son. Are people | :30:02. | :30:11. | |
talking about the future of Ed balls? Yes, it is easiest to be a | :30:12. | :30:18. | |
Shadow Chancellor when the economy is not going well. Now the economy | :30:19. | :30:23. | |
seems to be improving, we have had the unemployment figures, better | :30:24. | :30:29. | |
growth figures, and as you alluded to a couple of weeks ago the Autumn | :30:30. | :30:33. | |
Statement, when George Osborne was able to taunt Ed Balls. Many people | :30:34. | :30:45. | |
feel that was not Ed Balls's finest day at the office. As regards | :30:46. | :30:52. | |
gestures and things, recently, when the economy was flat-lining, Ed | :30:53. | :30:58. | |
Balls used to do this to George Osborne and David Cameron, hinting | :30:59. | :31:03. | |
that the economy was flat-lining. Today, Mr Cameron, buoyed by the | :31:04. | :31:08. | |
unemployment figures, was keen to try to create the impression that | :31:09. | :31:12. | |
perhaps Ed Miliband used to do another hand gesture, waving Ed | :31:13. | :31:22. | |
Balls goodbye. Thank you very much. Alf Young and Gillian Bowditch are | :31:23. | :31:26. | |
still with me. Let's pick up on the Treasury claim about the ?1.6 | :31:27. | :31:30. | |
billion funding gap in the white paper. As John Swinney says, it | :31:31. | :31:38. | |
seems like we have been here before. I find this use of the metaphor of | :31:39. | :31:44. | |
the black hole entirely unpersuasive because what it says to all of us is | :31:45. | :31:49. | |
that we are never going to get any sense out of these numbers. The | :31:50. | :31:53. | |
simple reality under this is, if you cut the tax, the amount of revenue | :31:54. | :32:00. | |
coming in will initially the less. If corporation tax or so on is | :32:01. | :32:05. | |
lower. Unless more people fly or companies make more money, in which | :32:06. | :32:10. | |
case more money comes back in. It is not an argument about black holes, | :32:11. | :32:17. | |
it is an argument predicated on the economy growing faster and getting | :32:18. | :32:21. | |
bigger so that the revenues come in. That is a debate that Scottish | :32:22. | :32:25. | |
people should really be thinking about, are they persuaded that if | :32:26. | :32:29. | |
there is free childcare or low passenger duty on air flights or low | :32:30. | :32:37. | |
corporation tax, will people in Scotland work harder, created a | :32:38. | :32:40. | |
bigger economy and produce the revenues that will allow that to | :32:41. | :32:49. | |
happen? -- create. Do people take the arguments about funding gaps on | :32:50. | :32:53. | |
when they are thinking about how to vote? I think people do have | :32:54. | :32:58. | |
concerns about the economy, I think that is a major topic that people | :32:59. | :33:06. | |
will look at when voting but a new Shia -- the minutiae are extremely | :33:07. | :33:13. | |
compact hated. We have a number of companies questioning that there is | :33:14. | :33:16. | |
going to be a lag, it takes a while for these taxes to come back. There | :33:17. | :33:22. | |
is no such thing as free childcare, the taxpayer will pay. People at | :33:23. | :33:26. | |
that level understand these arguments. Where it gets, the gated | :33:27. | :33:32. | |
is in the minutiae and the big numbers bandied around, but the | :33:33. | :33:38. | |
question is how they are going to balance the books in an independent | :33:39. | :33:42. | |
Scotland and I don't think that has been satisfactorily answered yet? Ed | :33:43. | :33:50. | |
Balls, do you think he could be in trouble? That story in the Son said | :33:51. | :33:56. | |
he could be out of a job in the autumn? -- the sun. It seems | :33:57. | :34:06. | |
unbelievable to me that if they were going to sack him by would wait | :34:07. | :34:10. | |
until next autumn. If they are going to do it, they should do it now. | :34:11. | :34:17. | |
Stay with us, we will be back with you in a moment. | :34:18. | :34:20. | |
Now as it's the final programme of the year let's take a look back with | :34:21. | :34:22. | |
our A to Z of 2013. There is blood on your shirt. It is | :34:23. | :37:35. | |
not mine. Scotland's future is now in | :37:36. | :38:30. | |
Scotland's hands. There is nothing new in it, nothing published today | :38:31. | :38:35. | |
that they could not have told us about yesterday. | :38:36. | :39:28. | |
Never, never, and never again shall it be that this beautiful land will | :39:29. | :39:41. | |
again experience the oppression of one by another. The sun sun never | :39:42. | :39:55. | |
shed -- the sun shall never set on so glorious and achievement. | :39:56. | :40:09. | |
I said, what news? So she told me that her daughter had phoned from | :40:10. | :40:19. | |
London to alert her to the fact that I had got this prize. | :40:20. | :40:28. | |
Good evening. Helicopter has crashed into the sea off Shetland. -- a | :40:29. | :40:33. | |
helicopter. This is clearly anti-British and NT | :40:34. | :42:42. | |
-- and anti-English. They hate the union Jack, so... | :42:43. | :43:01. | |
We will freeze gas and electricity prices until the start of 2017. | :43:02. | :43:53. | |
Regrettably, that will mean 835 job losses across Filton, the Clyde and | :43:54. | :44:01. | |
Rosyth and the closure of the company's shipbuilding yard in | :44:02. | :44:02. | |
Portsmouth. So, let's chew over 2013 with our | :44:03. | :44:36. | |
political commentators. Alf Young is still here with the Sunday Times | :44:37. | :44:39. | |
columnist Gillian Bowditch, and we're also joined by the former | :44:40. | :44:41. | |
political editor of the Herald, Murray Ritchie. Let's start with | :44:42. | :44:48. | |
you, money. What was your big story of 2013? What resonated with you? It | :44:49. | :44:53. | |
is the white paper. The huge document. When you get to my age, | :44:54. | :44:57. | |
you can barely lift it up. It is enormous and there is so much | :44:58. | :45:01. | |
reading in it. I naively thought that when it was brought out with | :45:02. | :45:05. | |
great fanfare, there would be a jump in the polls for the yes campaign. | :45:06. | :45:10. | |
There was a very small, tiny jump. When you think about it, it will | :45:11. | :45:15. | |
take months to the dad thing. The debate will take many months for all | :45:16. | :45:19. | |
the various points in that enormous document to sink into the public | :45:20. | :45:24. | |
understanding. It will have to be long discussion about it. I would | :45:25. | :45:29. | |
think the yes campaign will be looking for a little lift, but I | :45:30. | :45:33. | |
think they were maybe expecting it to sin. I think it will come for | :45:34. | :45:38. | |
them. Politically, it is probably the biggest expected thing this | :45:39. | :45:40. | |
year. Didn't live up to expectations? -- did it live up to | :45:41. | :45:48. | |
expectations? It surprised me. I expected a much more visionary | :45:49. | :45:54. | |
document that would try and sell the whole case in words that people | :45:55. | :45:57. | |
would immediately engage with in a direct way. Facing them with 600 | :45:58. | :46:06. | |
adored pages -- 600-odd pages of dense stuff... I would have thought | :46:07. | :46:11. | |
the number who will sit down and make their way through it will be | :46:12. | :46:19. | |
tiny. There was talk of getting Sir William McIlvanney to write a more | :46:20. | :46:28. | |
nuanced, flourishing kind of prose. It is not like that, the bits I have | :46:29. | :46:33. | |
read, anyway. It is the kind of stuff you expect from civil servants | :46:34. | :46:38. | |
at the end of the day. I just wonder whether that a striking the right | :46:39. | :46:41. | |
note for a campaign that is behind and has to get in front. Now, | :46:42. | :46:48. | |
there's 9-10 months to do it. How'd you look at the way the independence | :46:49. | :46:55. | |
debate has progressed? It as the long, occasionally coming to the | :46:56. | :47:02. | |
boil, but no big peaks troughs. It hasn't been edifying. It has been | :47:03. | :47:05. | |
difficult for the will to engage with it. The white paper was the | :47:06. | :47:11. | |
clearly to answer a lot of questions that the Better Together campaign | :47:12. | :47:19. | |
had been firing. It probably stemmed from that. It needed to show there | :47:20. | :47:24. | |
was something weighty beer. It was a document by committee. One civil | :47:25. | :47:29. | |
servant said she had seen four paragraphs before it went out. | :47:30. | :47:32. | |
Everyone was able to see a tiny bit, but they didn't see it all. It could | :47:33. | :47:38. | |
have done with a good edit. It needed something visionary and we | :47:39. | :47:41. | |
did not have that. It was a weighty document. In terms of the | :47:42. | :47:45. | |
independence campaign, the highlight was probably Nicolai giving a big -- | :47:46. | :47:51. | |
was probably Nicola Sturgeon giving a bashing to have the debate. Let's | :47:52. | :48:00. | |
that is better in 2014. What do you make of the debate over the course | :48:01. | :48:02. | |
of the year? Has it reached your expectations? Not really. There is | :48:03. | :48:15. | |
an impasse. The interesting thing, and you might disagree, but I think | :48:16. | :48:18. | |
one of the interesting things is where the Labour vote in Scotland | :48:19. | :48:27. | |
goes. In our days on the Herald, for 30 years, we had an opinion poll | :48:28. | :48:32. | |
which tracks Scottish public opinion for all that time every month. It | :48:33. | :48:37. | |
was very valuable. It fell victim to cuts, unfortunately. One of the | :48:38. | :48:41. | |
interesting things about that was that the Labour Party pointed out to | :48:42. | :48:46. | |
me at the time, valid to their discomfort, that up to 45%, and | :48:47. | :48:53. | |
certainly up to 30-40%, their voters were happy with independence. They | :48:54. | :48:58. | |
did not campaign for that come to the SNP, still voted Labour, but | :48:59. | :49:00. | |
they were intrigued by the thought of Scotland being independent. Where | :49:01. | :49:07. | |
are those people now? The left wing of the Labour Party as it is now is | :49:08. | :49:10. | |
in favour of independence, but they few nowadays. The rest of it is the | :49:11. | :49:16. | |
Jim Murphy type of attitude, just have nothing to do with it. I think | :49:17. | :49:25. | |
once the Labour vote, once we begin to understand that, there could be | :49:26. | :49:28. | |
significant in that and we will see where it goes. The yes campaign | :49:29. | :49:35. | |
wanted to come over. You pick up on that point, because the undecideds | :49:36. | :49:38. | |
are going to be a major feature in 2014. The add-in to 12-17%. -- the | :49:39. | :49:50. | |
air around 17%. It is shrinking. It is still a big gap between now and | :49:51. | :49:55. | |
yes in the mainstream. In terms of what he was just saying, I think the | :49:56. | :50:00. | |
most interesting bit was what we could call the radical left. Whether | :50:01. | :50:07. | |
it is green politics or a kind of left redistributed politics which is | :50:08. | :50:09. | |
out with the main parties altogether. They have been filling | :50:10. | :50:14. | |
conference halls and having great beats but they are a tiny, tiny | :50:15. | :50:18. | |
segment of overall opinion in the country. Although that is well be | :50:19. | :50:23. | |
interesting, exciting stuff is happening, it will not affect the | :50:24. | :50:28. | |
overall result in a country with a country where the Green candidate in | :50:29. | :50:31. | |
two of the by-elections which you mentioned in your list of the | :50:32. | :50:33. | |
highlights got half the vote of UKIP. Gillian, this has been a year | :50:34. | :50:41. | |
where we have had so many debates about the referendum, but we have | :50:42. | :50:44. | |
not actually had an election this year, which is unusual. Next year, | :50:45. | :50:48. | |
we have the European one, 2015 as the general election. There is no | :50:49. | :50:55. | |
posturing around election campaign, but we will have that for the | :50:56. | :50:59. | |
European one in 2014. That's right. There is no shortage of elections | :51:00. | :51:03. | |
now. We have a lot of different strategies of our democracy. | :51:04. | :51:08. | |
Politicians calls come out in force for an election and will be the same | :51:09. | :51:12. | |
without direct -- it will be the same for the referendum. It'll do | :51:13. | :51:15. | |
not engage until after the Commonwealth Games next summer. I'm | :51:16. | :51:21. | |
sure some of them are keeping their powder dry. It is a very long | :51:22. | :51:24. | |
campaign and we have not had a referendum like this. Difficult to | :51:25. | :51:27. | |
pace themselves. Once they see the finish line, they will start to | :51:28. | :51:34. | |
galvanise. Was there anything in 2013 that took you by surprise? It | :51:35. | :51:39. | |
is quite interesting when you think back of Eric Joyce getting into a | :51:40. | :51:42. | |
fight in the House of Commons, being deselected, the Falkirk and Labour | :51:43. | :51:46. | |
selection row, that ended up in the huge Grangemouth dispute. That was | :51:47. | :51:54. | |
quite surprising thing this year. It was horrible, actually. It was a | :51:55. | :51:58. | |
nationally thing -- it was a nasty thing. It was a lesson in how trade | :51:59. | :52:05. | |
unions should not behave. It does not work any more. The employer they | :52:06. | :52:10. | |
were dealing with is a hard man with a lot of experience in getting rid | :52:11. | :52:12. | |
of people. They picked the wrong battle ground and the wrong type of | :52:13. | :52:15. | |
fight. But he came out of it with something. In fairness, they were | :52:16. | :52:20. | |
provoked by the management in Grangemouth. As far as the Falkirk | :52:21. | :52:24. | |
thing is concerned, you know, we still do not know what happened | :52:25. | :52:27. | |
there. We have not been given a full account of all the mischief that | :52:28. | :52:33. | |
went on the behind-the-scenes. We do not know what happened. That stinks | :52:34. | :52:37. | |
of cover-up. That can be very dangerous for a party defending a | :52:38. | :52:41. | |
seat like that will stop it will be very difficult for Labour to defend | :52:42. | :52:47. | |
it, but we will see. What you make of the Grangemouth story? It really | :52:48. | :52:53. | |
shook Scotland. It certainly took me back. In my advanced years, having | :52:54. | :52:58. | |
spent more years than I care to say in front of factory gates as | :52:59. | :53:01. | |
factories were shut down across Scotland, I was dragged by the BBC | :53:02. | :53:04. | |
One morning at around seven o'clock on a morning to a rather draughty | :53:05. | :53:11. | |
van sitting outside the gates. Suddenly, all hell broke loose | :53:12. | :53:16. | |
because Len McCluskey arrived and there was a good old-fashioned media | :53:17. | :53:22. | |
scrum as he went into the gates. I ended up doing about six interviews | :53:23. | :53:25. | |
in the space of two days, which was ridiculous. It was a reminder of | :53:26. | :53:32. | |
these big... You know, how to be placed so much of a sense of who we | :53:33. | :53:38. | |
are is a country in the old industries? The big petrochemical | :53:39. | :53:43. | |
plants or indeed the row generation of Royal navy frigates, the Clyde | :53:44. | :53:49. | |
Portsmouth someone else. We invest so much in those but so much is | :53:50. | :53:54. | |
gone. The bits that have left -- bits have been left have struggled. | :53:55. | :54:03. | |
There was someone on saying that this country is so expensive in | :54:04. | :54:06. | |
energy terms that they cannot run stuff like this in this country. The | :54:07. | :54:08. | |
places to go and America the Far East. Having said that, he is | :54:09. | :54:13. | |
bringing gas into Grangemouth and giving it a new kind of future doing | :54:14. | :54:17. | |
that. It is complicated, difficult stuff, but money is right. The | :54:18. | :54:24. | |
unions have not stayed up with the pace and played the game. And they | :54:25. | :54:30. | |
have got caught out. Gillian, looking back there, two major | :54:31. | :54:34. | |
characters of the 20th century, Margaret Thatcher and Nelson Mandela | :54:35. | :54:40. | |
passed away in 2013. Yes, two big political figures who dominated | :54:41. | :54:42. | |
politics in the 1980s and early 1990s. Difficult to compare the two. | :54:43. | :54:49. | |
Nelson Mandela was an international statesman and we have just seen his | :54:50. | :54:52. | |
funeral and the kind of acclaim he got. Margaret Thatcher, more mixed | :54:53. | :54:58. | |
emotions, I think, certainly in Scotland, all for her passing. It | :54:59. | :55:02. | |
was an opportunity for people to reassess some of the decisions she | :55:03. | :55:09. | |
made and to look at, you know, possibly how blame has been unfairly | :55:10. | :55:15. | |
apportioned the in some circumstances and to have a little | :55:16. | :55:18. | |
bit more distance and think about our history in a more rational way. | :55:19. | :55:25. | |
It was a real time for looking at legacies, wasn't it? I would like to | :55:26. | :55:32. | |
go to Robben Island. I try to go when he was still there. They would | :55:33. | :55:40. | |
not let me see him. I went to the liberal anti-apartheid campaigner, | :55:41. | :55:43. | |
who was a great woman who was alleged to see him. She said the | :55:44. | :55:50. | |
thing that struck about Mandela was his determination not to give in to | :55:51. | :55:53. | |
him. They were offering allsorts of deals to him and saying that if you | :55:54. | :55:57. | |
concede or compromise on this, we will let you out. He knew that the | :55:58. | :56:02. | |
way he was carrying on with his lack of negotiations was making the | :56:03. | :56:06. | |
apartheid Government in South Africa his prisoner. He was a phenomenal | :56:07. | :56:11. | |
politician. A really remarkable man. That was hard abiding memory of | :56:12. | :56:18. | |
him, just before he was released. He knew he was winning. You want to | :56:19. | :56:25. | |
comment on that? I was struck by, in terms of funerals, because you have | :56:26. | :56:32. | |
posed Thatcher and Mandela. Thatcher's funeral was a very sombre | :56:33. | :56:36. | |
and state like affair. I watched bits at home. The Mandela funeral, | :56:37. | :56:43. | |
and you have that widely distributed picture of Obama and Cameron almost | :56:44. | :56:52. | |
as if it was a celebrity event. The tone and nature of each of the | :56:53. | :56:55. | |
farewells was entirely different, it even at the level of heads of state, | :56:56. | :57:01. | |
major powers. It is extraordinary. We're almost out of time. A funny | :57:02. | :57:10. | |
moment of 2013? It was very sad, looking at the documentary. I'm | :57:11. | :57:13. | |
Professor Higgs in the Nobel Prize. A great story emanating from | :57:14. | :57:19. | |
Scotland and a man who had an idea with simple national -- | :57:20. | :57:24. | |
international obligations. That was a great story for me. Your best | :57:25. | :57:31. | |
moment for 2013? I don't have another best moment, I don't think. | :57:32. | :57:37. | |
Andy Murray for. He gave me an attack, but I survived. Thank you | :57:38. | :57:48. | |
for joining us. That is all for most today and for 2013, as MSPs go off | :57:49. | :57:52. | |
on holiday tomorrow. We'll be back on air in the new year for a very | :57:53. | :57:56. | |
busy 2014. Until then, merry Christmas and enjoy the festive | :57:57. | :57:57. | |
season. Goodbye. | :57:58. | :58:04. |