18/12/2013 Politics Scotland


18/12/2013

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Hello and welcome to the last Politics Scotland of 2013. Coming

:00:18.:00:22.

up... Good news on the employment figures,

:00:23.:00:26.

with more people in a job, but pay still lags behind inflation.

:00:27.:00:29.

With Christmas round the corner, MSPs debate new plans to tackle

:00:30.:00:40.

payday loans - we'll have that live. At Westminster, claim and

:00:41.:00:45.

counterclaim over the health of Scottish finances.

:00:46.:00:49.

And as it's our last show we take a look at the A to Z of 2013 with our

:00:50.:00:53.

panel of guests. But first, the number of Scots

:00:54.:00:56.

seeking work in August to October was down by 7000, while the number

:00:57.:01:01.

of people in work was up. That is in line with the figures for the UK as

:01:02.:01:05.

a whole, though pay continues to lag behind inflation. Here is our

:01:06.:01:07.

business and economy editor, Douglas Fraser.

:01:08.:01:11.

There is some Christmas cheer from today's figures, even as they cover

:01:12.:01:15.

August to October. The number of Scots seeking work down by 7000 to

:01:16.:01:24.

196,000. 99,000 fewer in the UK seeking work. In Scotland the

:01:25.:01:28.

unemployment rate has reached 7.1% and the UK rate is down to 7.4%,

:01:29.:01:36.

down to the 7% which the Bank of England has said could signal

:01:37.:01:39.

sufficient economic recovery for interest rates to start writing

:01:40.:01:45.

again. With 11,000 more Scots in work on the Scottish Government is

:01:46.:01:48.

highlighting a record number of Scots women working. We now have

:01:49.:01:57.

more women in employment than any of - ever before, in excess of 1.2

:01:58.:02:03.

million which is really good news. It is that increase that is driving

:02:04.:02:10.

the overall increase in employment. The data also includes pay and it

:02:11.:02:18.

was up in the year to October by 0.9%, still short of the inflation

:02:19.:02:22.

rate. Real spending power is still being squeezed.

:02:23.:02:26.

Let's discuss this a bit further now with our guests for the afternoon,

:02:27.:02:29.

the political commentator Alf Young and Gillian Bowditch from The Sunday

:02:30.:02:38.

Times. Good afternoon. Alf, looking at these figures, it is pretty good

:02:39.:02:43.

news for the economy. Yes, in general terms it is good news and

:02:44.:02:46.

for many people quite surprising news in terms of jobs it is recovery

:02:47.:02:53.

is still quite slack. There is a recovery in output but the fact that

:02:54.:02:58.

the market is as resilient as it appears to be as good news. It

:02:59.:03:03.

appears to be in line with the rest of the UK. The improvement is

:03:04.:03:10.

Scotland is slightly better in terms of the jobless rate. -- in Scotland.

:03:11.:03:15.

In terms of new jobs being created, pretty similar. The Scottish number

:03:16.:03:23.

and the UK number both mask huge variation in the country at large.

:03:24.:03:27.

In the north East of England unemployment is still under 10%. In

:03:28.:03:34.

Aberdeenshire it is maybe down to 1%, 2%. You have enormous variation.

:03:35.:03:41.

Gillian, seeing in the film that there is record numbers of women in

:03:42.:03:47.

employment since the records started being taken 21 years ago. That is to

:03:48.:03:54.

be welcomed obviously. We still have a situation where wages for women

:03:55.:03:58.

tend to lack behind and more women are in part-time work, but very good

:03:59.:04:06.

news and certainly for women who have wanted to get back into the

:04:07.:04:09.

workforce after perhaps having children or their husbands being

:04:10.:04:14.

affected by the recession, it is good that these jobs are available.

:04:15.:04:17.

It is interesting about wages because they are short of inflation

:04:18.:04:25.

so pay is still being squeezed. Living standards are being squeezed

:04:26.:04:30.

because people are not making enough to make up for the rise in prices.

:04:31.:04:34.

That is part of the dynamic, not just that the economy is creating

:04:35.:04:38.

the jobs but that women are seeking to go out to work because it is a

:04:39.:04:50.

necessity. We are also finding significant numbers of older people

:04:51.:04:54.

going back to work, although they are in receipt of the state pension,

:04:55.:04:58.

because they need to supplement it to pay for energy bills and the

:04:59.:05:03.

rest. There are a number of dynamisms at work. We have good

:05:04.:05:11.

figures, Gillian, in unemployment, maybe growth coming back in, but the

:05:12.:05:16.

cost of living fright -- crisis is as Labour frame said. The

:05:17.:05:23.

Conservatives and the SNP can both claimed they have helped to drive

:05:24.:05:28.

these figures, Ed Miliband can complain about the very real

:05:29.:05:32.

squeezed the families. Plenty for politicians to get their teeth into.

:05:33.:05:38.

We will see you both shortly. Let's get some political reaction to

:05:39.:05:43.

this. We will cross live to Holyrood and join the SNP's Kevin Stewart,

:05:44.:05:46.

Liam McArthur from the Liberal Democrats and Labour's Ken

:05:47.:05:47.

Macintosh. It is the time of year when we are

:05:48.:05:51.

all spending extra but there is concern about what happens when that

:05:52.:06:03.

gets out of control. Good news for the Scottish and

:06:04.:06:09.

British governments. Unemployment is lower in Scotland than the rest of

:06:10.:06:14.

the UK and that is extremely good news but I still think we could do

:06:15.:06:18.

more if we had all of the levers of power of an independent country. For

:06:19.:06:24.

me, the particularly good news in all of this is the fact that women

:06:25.:06:29.

in employment is at its highest since records began. We could do

:06:30.:06:35.

even better there as well if we had independence. In Denmark, 79% of

:06:36.:06:43.

women with children under six are in employment. In the UK it is only

:06:44.:06:48.

59%. With independence we could do much better. We can put that to Liam

:06:49.:06:56.

McArthur. Good news for the UK economy as a whole but let's look at

:06:57.:07:03.

what he was saying, mentioning childcare, a key divide it in the

:07:04.:07:08.

independence debate. How could the economy improved if we take on what

:07:09.:07:13.

the SNP are saying? Kevin is right, it is a good news in Scotland and in

:07:14.:07:18.

the UK and it justifies the difficult but necessary decisions we

:07:19.:07:22.

have taken in relation to the UK economy. I am interested that

:07:23.:07:30.

childcare has been chosen by the SNP as a flagship dividing line in the

:07:31.:07:34.

debate around breaking up the UK. We have all of the powers we need to

:07:35.:07:39.

deliver childcare now, it is about political choices and the choice the

:07:40.:07:43.

government has made is in relation to extending provision to

:07:44.:07:48.

two-year-olds, which is happening south of the border, but the SNP

:07:49.:07:53.

have decided to hold that hostage in return for a yes vote next year. I

:07:54.:07:58.

think that will be seen as passing strange by not just women in

:07:59.:08:02.

Scotland but parents right across Scotland. Why doesn't the Scottish

:08:03.:08:09.

Government just do it now? The difficulty is that we don't control

:08:10.:08:12.

our finances at this moment in time. The extra taxation could be

:08:13.:08:20.

put in to provide more childcare. I would have more respect for him and

:08:21.:08:25.

his colleagues if they said that the Treasury would guarantee that any

:08:26.:08:28.

money made would comeback to Scotland to fund the policy. They

:08:29.:08:35.

won't make that promise. Liam McArthur, the Treasury give ring a

:08:36.:08:41.

promised that the extra money will go for a living. -- giving. We have

:08:42.:08:51.

had previous on this. We have the powers to deal with this now. We

:08:52.:08:57.

have eight children and young people Bill who has -- which has the

:08:58.:09:02.

opportunity to put this in practice so the SNP government has to deal

:09:03.:09:06.

with this instead of holding it hostage. Ken Macintosh, back on

:09:07.:09:12.

track with the economy, perhaps rather awkward figures that Ed

:09:13.:09:17.

Miliband today at PMQs. He welcomes the good news about the figures but

:09:18.:09:21.

you are still pursuing the cost of living crisis when it looks like the

:09:22.:09:26.

economy is growing. There is a cost of living crisis and it is right for

:09:27.:09:29.

us to talk about the issues that worry people. The ferry to the last

:09:30.:09:34.

interchange, it worries me that Kevin Stewart basically seems to be

:09:35.:09:38.

more concerned with the income that this policy would generate for the

:09:39.:09:42.

Scottish Government than the fact that it would help women back into

:09:43.:09:58.

work. That is nonsense. This is not a political story, it is about what

:09:59.:10:03.

it means to people. Whether Scotland or England is doing better is beside

:10:04.:10:07.

the point. At the moment there are 75,000 people not in work from the

:10:08.:10:16.

pre-recession hi. This is not anything that can be described as

:10:17.:10:22.

first class. It is a very difficult time for most people. If you look

:10:23.:10:26.

beyond the headline figures, there are some quite worrying news today.

:10:27.:10:31.

The economic activity level has increased by 10000 and long-term

:10:32.:10:41.

youth unemployment has increased. -- economic inactivity. The people with

:10:42.:10:47.

temporary jobs has gone up. People are going back to temporary,

:10:48.:10:52.

insecure, irregular work. Rather like the number of women in

:10:53.:10:57.

employment going up, it is a news story but it is probably the case

:10:58.:11:01.

that many families are having to go back to the workplace to supplement

:11:02.:11:04.

their earnings because they are feeling squeezed. Another issue

:11:05.:11:13.

related to that, you will be debating the Bankruptcy and Debt

:11:14.:11:16.

Advice Bill, people turning to payday loan lenders. How will this

:11:17.:11:19.

help people in financial trouble, Kevin Stewart? I think this bill

:11:20.:11:25.

creates a financial health service to try to ensure that people do not

:11:26.:11:31.

get into debt. I would say that the government's 12 days of debt

:11:32.:11:37.

campaign is a particularly good one and I think there has been a lot of

:11:38.:11:42.

response to that. However, one of the things that drive spoke into

:11:43.:11:47.

debt is payday loan companies. One of the disappointing things is that

:11:48.:11:52.

the Westminster government refuses to cap those companies until the 1st

:11:53.:11:57.

of January 2015. I think there should be brought forward. Beyond

:11:58.:12:02.

that, the Westminster government's welfare reform policies will also

:12:03.:12:05.

drive more and more people into debt. Let's put that to Liam

:12:06.:12:11.

McArthur. It is being debated this afternoon in Parliament at

:12:12.:12:15.

Westminster could be taking action just now? In terms of the welfare

:12:16.:12:21.

reform process, what we have seen from the SNP is absolutely no detail

:12:22.:12:26.

on the alternative provisions they would bring forward. They have not

:12:27.:12:32.

explained how they would plug the ?2.5 billion gap in our finances and

:12:33.:12:37.

indeed they have acknowledged the need to reform welfare and make it

:12:38.:12:41.

simpler without abiding any detail so I think it lacks any credibility

:12:42.:12:48.

and is a black hole in the middle of the white paper. In terms of this

:12:49.:12:52.

afternoon's proceedings, it is generally cross-party support for

:12:53.:12:58.

work in this area, we do need to ensure, as Kevin said, that people

:12:59.:13:03.

do not fall into debt in the first place and there are measures to be

:13:04.:13:07.

taken in terms of improving advice they are getting. There is concern

:13:08.:13:11.

about extending the payback period the debt to four years. I know it is

:13:12.:13:17.

a fine balance between those in debt and those who are owed but concerns

:13:18.:13:21.

are legitimately being raised about extending that to four years and

:13:22.:13:27.

whether that would not increase the problems for those who are trying to

:13:28.:13:34.

get out of debt. Is There Cross-party Consensus On This Bill?

:13:35.:13:38.

There Are Some Concerns About Citizens Advice And People Like That

:13:39.:13:43.

Not Been Given Enough Money. It Is Not Cross-party Consensus. What

:13:44.:13:49.

Worries Me Is There Has Not Been a chance to do something in

:13:50.:13:55.

Parliament. This will increase the major in bankruptcy. Kevin can talk

:13:56.:13:58.

about is what Westminster should do. Why doesn't this using social

:13:59.:14:03.

advertising funds to tackle these payday lenders? Why don't we extend

:14:04.:14:07.

the loan guarantee fund to credit unions to provide practical support?

:14:08.:14:11.

This Bill this afternoon does nothing, absolutely nothing to help

:14:12.:14:15.

people with debt. Instead, my suspicion is it is about funding

:14:16.:14:22.

bankruptcy and taking it from the Government books. It doesn't help

:14:23.:14:27.

people who are struggling. If the reaction of the SNP in every

:14:28.:14:29.

situation is to say, what should Westminster do? I despair. We have

:14:30.:14:40.

to leave it there. Gentleman, thank you very much for joining me.

:14:41.:14:48.

It is that time of year when we are all spending extra, but there's

:14:49.:14:51.

concern about what happens when that gets out of control. MSPs are

:14:52.:14:54.

debating the Bankruptcy and Debt Advice Bill in the chamber this

:14:55.:14:57.

afternoon. It's the stage one debate and it's expected to pass its first

:14:58.:15:00.

Parliamentary hurdle. Let's listen in to that now. The ministers

:15:01.:15:06.

speaking for the Scottish Government.

:15:07.:15:12.

We will see what we can do at stage two in order to achieve that. We

:15:13.:15:17.

take the kick two technical criticisms made by somebody is on

:15:18.:15:21.

this aspect of the Bill very seriously, of course. The committee

:15:22.:15:26.

has passed on concerns about the ?10,000 threshold for entry into the

:15:27.:15:32.

minimum assets process. Our new boot two route into bankruptcy by

:15:33.:15:39.

debtors. I am happy to say they will be back in January with an amendment

:15:40.:15:42.

to raise the maximum debt level. We propose an increase to ?17,000, an

:15:43.:15:47.

increase which would set the threshold high enough to enable 75%

:15:48.:15:52.

of all current cases to enter the MEP process. I hope this will

:15:53.:15:58.

provide the necessary assurance that this important debt relief will be

:15:59.:16:03.

available to those who need it most. The committee has raised the

:16:04.:16:05.

important issue of bank accounts for and discharged debtors. It is

:16:06.:16:11.

important we look at this and do what we can to make the necessary

:16:12.:16:14.

provision during the amending stages and I have written to the British

:16:15.:16:18.

banking Association to enlist their support. Of course, there are a

:16:19.:16:22.

number of areas where the committee has agreed with the Scottish

:16:23.:16:26.

Government. I am pleased that the committee has agreed a proposal to

:16:27.:16:30.

extend the payment period after bankruptcy to cover 48 monthly

:16:31.:16:34.

payments. I know, presiding Officer, that not everyone supports

:16:35.:16:37.

this proposal, but it is important to have a debate on the basis of the

:16:38.:16:45.

facts. First, it is not correct to say that this change will mean that

:16:46.:16:49.

people in Scotland will have to pay back more to creditors than in any

:16:50.:16:54.

other part of the UK. This is because there are insolvency

:16:55.:16:58.

measures elsewhere in England and Wales such as individual voluntary

:16:59.:17:03.

arrangements will the payment period is not four years, but is usually

:17:04.:17:11.

five years. Second, at the same time as this change comes into force, we

:17:12.:17:16.

will be fixing the common financial statement which is already

:17:17.:17:19.

applicable in respect of some cases and from November in other cases,

:17:20.:17:24.

which is run by the money advice trust, as the Scottish common

:17:25.:17:29.

financial tool. This is important because it means contributions will

:17:30.:17:32.

be set according to a consistent, transparent termination. Our

:17:33.:17:40.

research has shown the should sit down might mean a more sustainable

:17:41.:17:44.

level of contributions. We also recognise the importance of

:17:45.:17:48.

providing guidance on the practical ordination of the tool to ensure it

:17:49.:17:51.

works in practice. But, it is not true to say that longer payment

:17:52.:17:59.

periods automatically lead to an... -- lead to an increase. We have had

:18:00.:18:09.

reasonable stability since 2012 with 3% approximately. 3% of breakage is

:18:10.:18:15.

approximately means that it is 97% of cases which are ordered -- or not

:18:16.:18:24.

or tempered with the debtor and the debtor pays off his debts in full.

:18:25.:18:29.

That strongly to be welcomed. I will do so in a minute, because as

:18:30.:18:34.

paragraph 34 says, one of the objectors of this Bill is that those

:18:35.:18:40.

who can pay should be. I will take intervention. Thank you. It is my

:18:41.:18:49.

understanding that the European Commission has recommended that the

:18:50.:18:54.

payment periods should in principle be 1-3 years and no longer than

:18:55.:18:56.

three years. I understand that nowhere else in the UK we have a

:18:57.:19:00.

payment period longer than three years. Why has the Scottish

:19:01.:19:05.

Government recommended, against advice of many of the people I gave

:19:06.:19:14.

advice to the committee? I have to correct the member on a number of

:19:15.:19:18.

respects. First of all, Savannah 's advice to the Scottish Government,

:19:19.:19:24.

-- so far as the advice to the Scottish Government, 42 members of

:19:25.:19:32.

the Commission supported a four-year option. It is plainly a compromise

:19:33.:19:37.

but the majority supported five years. Secondly, she said that in

:19:38.:19:44.

England they do not pay for as long. Perhaps she was not listening to

:19:45.:19:48.

what I said a moment ago. I said that individual voluntary

:19:49.:19:54.

arrangements, which are agreements payable in England and Wales,

:19:55.:20:00.

usually last for five years. That is longer than four years, not shorter.

:20:01.:20:09.

I am afraid that those who argue that the position in England is that

:20:10.:20:14.

debtors pay for a longer period are not taking account of the facts that

:20:15.:20:19.

the opposite is the case because individual voluntary arrangements

:20:20.:20:23.

usually, not always, for various technical reasons, but usually last

:20:24.:20:30.

for five years. I will take intervention in a moment. I

:20:31.:20:35.

understand that as a campaign mounted by the Labour Party, and I

:20:36.:20:40.

would suggest you take advice from Tam DL, who knew a bit about

:20:41.:20:43.

campaigning, which is that the first thing that should do in a campaign

:20:44.:20:52.

is get your facts right. I wonder if the Minister would recognise that is

:20:53.:20:54.

a difference between an individual voluntary agreement and bankruptcy

:20:55.:20:57.

and what he is in fact doing is comparing apples with oranges? No, I

:20:58.:21:02.

am very sorry to have to disagree, because I respect the strong passion

:21:03.:21:07.

she brings to this topic and the work she does. It is simply not

:21:08.:21:11.

correct to say that we are comparing like with unlike. Individual

:21:12.:21:17.

voluntary arrangements are cleverly comparable with the insolvency

:21:18.:21:21.

arrangements in Scotland and the truth is that this is a campaign

:21:22.:21:27.

which has got off to a faltering start because it is not founded on

:21:28.:21:36.

backs. -- on facts. I have the analysis of the consultation in

:21:37.:21:39.

front of me. The question is posed, if yes, what would that extension

:21:40.:21:46.

be? But the qualifying note under it says the majority of respondents who

:21:47.:21:49.

answered this question felt that an extension was not necessary. They

:21:50.:21:58.

answered only hypothetical point. Would the Minister committed to

:21:59.:22:03.

going away and looking at the accountants and bankruptcy analysis

:22:04.:22:08.

again? No, I will not, because I have it in front of me. I rather

:22:09.:22:18.

thought this topic might come up. Question 10.41A, three or four

:22:19.:22:30.

years? The answer was 27. The answer to five years, that was 32. More

:22:31.:22:39.

than three years. There was a majority for a longer period than

:22:40.:22:42.

they propose. You could say that the numbers are evenly matched between

:22:43.:22:47.

three and five years. If you do, it is difficult to see how it would be

:22:48.:22:50.

unreasonable to come forward with four years as a compromise, as it is

:22:51.:22:56.

exactly a Goodison Park team three and five years. -- as it is Ecuador

:22:57.:23:12.

cousin -- as it is equity soon. To Prime Minister's Questions now

:23:13.:23:15.

and David Cameron told the Commons the fall in unemployment showed the

:23:16.:23:18.

Government's economic plans were working. Ed Miliband welcomed the

:23:19.:23:21.

figures but said that too many people were in part-time or low-paid

:23:22.:23:24.

work. There were a few festive turkey jokes too.

:23:25.:23:26.

Today's economic figures show a welcome fall in unemployment. And

:23:27.:23:33.

for every person... For every person that gets back into work, it

:23:34.:23:37.

benefits not just them by the family as well. Does he agree with me that

:23:38.:23:42.

it is a major challenge for a Britain that at the end of this

:23:43.:23:44.

year, there are more people than ever before in today's figures

:23:45.:23:47.

working part-time because they cannot get hours they need? First of

:23:48.:23:54.

all, I think it is worth looking at these unemployment details and some

:23:55.:23:59.

detail, because they paid an encouraging figure. An appointment

:24:00.:24:05.

is down by 95,000. The number of people claiming unemployment benefit

:24:06.:24:07.

has fallen by 36,000 in this month alone. There are 250,000 more people

:24:08.:24:14.

in work. Youth unemployment is down, long-term unemployment is down,

:24:15.:24:18.

unemployment amongst women is down. We have talked before about 1

:24:19.:24:21.

million more people in work under this Government. It is now 1.2

:24:22.:24:26.

million more people in work. Now, there shouldn't be one ounce of

:24:27.:24:32.

complacency because we have still got work to do to get our country

:24:33.:24:36.

back to work and everyone back in work. It means greater stability for

:24:37.:24:40.

them, greater ability to plan for the future, greater help for their

:24:41.:24:45.

families. The thing they want to talk about waste of all is the cost

:24:46.:24:48.

of living crisis facing families up and down the country. That is

:24:49.:24:52.

because they know families are worse off. Can he tell us, how much higher

:24:53.:24:58.

is the average gas and electricity Bill this Christmas compared to

:24:59.:25:03.

last? They have a programme which will clearly leads to the

:25:04.:25:08.

disappearance of 1 million jobs. Now we have 1.6 million more

:25:09.:25:12.

private-sector jobs, 1.2 million more people in work, it is time he

:25:13.:25:16.

apologised for his prediction of talking the economy going. --

:25:17.:25:24.

talking the economy down. Let us compare our records the cost of

:25:25.:25:27.

living. They doubled council tax, we have frozen it. They put up Vettel

:25:28.:25:33.

tax 12 times, and we have frozen it. They put up the basic state pension

:25:34.:25:40.

eye 75p, up be increased by ?15. We have a new hand gesture from the

:25:41.:25:50.

Shadow Chancellor. After today's breathing in the papers, the gesture

:25:51.:25:57.

should be goodbye. You do not need it to be Christmas to know you're

:25:58.:26:05.

sitting next to a turkey. I can give the House something to cheer about.

:26:06.:26:09.

Will the Prime Minister join with me in welcoming the fact that

:26:10.:26:12.

investment in our oil and gas industry will reach a record

:26:13.:26:17.

amount, counting for an unemployment rate in my constituency of just 7%?

:26:18.:26:22.

Is he aware of the report that says we need collaboration between

:26:23.:26:27.

Government and industry to unlock barrels of oil worth ?200 billion

:26:28.:26:31.

which would otherwise be left in that the sea. It is an excellent

:26:32.:26:37.

support and we are looking to put that in place. We want to maximise

:26:38.:26:40.

the returns and employment and investment in the North Sea. In

:26:41.:26:45.

recent months, we have seen encouraging signs of greater

:26:46.:26:48.

investment in a North Sea, not least because of the decisions taken by

:26:49.:26:51.

the chance to bring into play some of these more marginal fields. We

:26:52.:26:55.

need to keep that up and lament that report. -- implement that report.

:26:56.:27:00.

Let's stay down at Westminster and speak to our correspondent David

:27:01.:27:03.

Porter, who's standing by on College Green. Thanks for joining us. An

:27:04.:27:09.

issue that didn't come up at Prime Minister 's questions but has been

:27:10.:27:12.

talked about quite a lot at Westminster today is nutritionally

:27:13.:27:17.

figures which claim to show a big funding gap in the Scottish

:27:18.:27:20.

Government's white paper. What is the story here? Since the

:27:21.:27:25.

publication of this white paper by the Scottish Government on

:27:26.:27:30.

independence, the people at the Treasury have been looking at the

:27:31.:27:36.

Cal Deuters number crunching. They came up with figures which would

:27:37.:27:43.

suggest a large black hole in the Scottish budget if they went

:27:44.:27:47.

independent. They have estimated that if you add up the cost of

:27:48.:27:49.

childcare provision, reduce air passenger duty, and corporation tax,

:27:50.:27:55.

but the Scottish Government could be left with the black hole of ?1.6

:27:56.:28:01.

billion in their budget. They say this would either have to be filled

:28:02.:28:06.

by expenditure cuts or tax rises or something like that. The Scottish

:28:07.:28:10.

Government have been quick to react. They accuse the UK Government's

:28:11.:28:16.

figures of being all over the place. They say the Treasury figures do not

:28:17.:28:19.

take into any account the fact that if you have better child provision,

:28:20.:28:24.

for instance, you get more women back in the workforce and more

:28:25.:28:27.

people paying tax. They say that the measures will help boost the

:28:28.:28:35.

economy. What we are seeing is an old-fashioned argument about

:28:36.:28:42.

spending and what Westminster and Holyrood are arguing about. We will

:28:43.:28:48.

hear more about this in 2014. It feels like we have been here

:28:49.:29:00.

before, with all of the black holes around, which has now come down to

:29:01.:29:06.

1.6 billion. It seems like that doing and froing that happens

:29:07.:29:11.

because of the referendum next year. Yes, all sides take the statistics

:29:12.:29:15.

which they think are going to be important to them and make a case

:29:16.:29:21.

from that. On one level it is political rhetoric, on the other

:29:22.:29:24.

level it is important because when people vote in September they will

:29:25.:29:29.

probably vote on the emotional argument but also probably on the

:29:30.:29:33.

economic questions, whether they feel they will be better off or not

:29:34.:29:37.

in an independent Scotland. Whoever wins the economic battle will feel

:29:38.:29:44.

like they have done well. That is why both sides are fighting so hard

:29:45.:29:50.

for this ground. Let's turn our attention back to PMQs. David

:29:51.:29:55.

Cameron seemed to destroy the Labour opposition, waving farewell to Ed

:29:56.:30:01.

balls, because of a briefing that has been in the Son. Are people

:30:02.:30:11.

talking about the future of Ed balls? Yes, it is easiest to be a

:30:12.:30:18.

Shadow Chancellor when the economy is not going well. Now the economy

:30:19.:30:23.

seems to be improving, we have had the unemployment figures, better

:30:24.:30:29.

growth figures, and as you alluded to a couple of weeks ago the Autumn

:30:30.:30:33.

Statement, when George Osborne was able to taunt Ed Balls. Many people

:30:34.:30:45.

feel that was not Ed Balls's finest day at the office. As regards

:30:46.:30:52.

gestures and things, recently, when the economy was flat-lining, Ed

:30:53.:30:58.

Balls used to do this to George Osborne and David Cameron, hinting

:30:59.:31:03.

that the economy was flat-lining. Today, Mr Cameron, buoyed by the

:31:04.:31:08.

unemployment figures, was keen to try to create the impression that

:31:09.:31:12.

perhaps Ed Miliband used to do another hand gesture, waving Ed

:31:13.:31:22.

Balls goodbye. Thank you very much. Alf Young and Gillian Bowditch are

:31:23.:31:26.

still with me. Let's pick up on the Treasury claim about the ?1.6

:31:27.:31:30.

billion funding gap in the white paper. As John Swinney says, it

:31:31.:31:38.

seems like we have been here before. I find this use of the metaphor of

:31:39.:31:44.

the black hole entirely unpersuasive because what it says to all of us is

:31:45.:31:49.

that we are never going to get any sense out of these numbers. The

:31:50.:31:53.

simple reality under this is, if you cut the tax, the amount of revenue

:31:54.:32:00.

coming in will initially the less. If corporation tax or so on is

:32:01.:32:05.

lower. Unless more people fly or companies make more money, in which

:32:06.:32:10.

case more money comes back in. It is not an argument about black holes,

:32:11.:32:17.

it is an argument predicated on the economy growing faster and getting

:32:18.:32:21.

bigger so that the revenues come in. That is a debate that Scottish

:32:22.:32:25.

people should really be thinking about, are they persuaded that if

:32:26.:32:29.

there is free childcare or low passenger duty on air flights or low

:32:30.:32:37.

corporation tax, will people in Scotland work harder, created a

:32:38.:32:40.

bigger economy and produce the revenues that will allow that to

:32:41.:32:49.

happen? -- create. Do people take the arguments about funding gaps on

:32:50.:32:53.

when they are thinking about how to vote? I think people do have

:32:54.:32:58.

concerns about the economy, I think that is a major topic that people

:32:59.:33:06.

will look at when voting but a new Shia -- the minutiae are extremely

:33:07.:33:13.

compact hated. We have a number of companies questioning that there is

:33:14.:33:16.

going to be a lag, it takes a while for these taxes to come back. There

:33:17.:33:22.

is no such thing as free childcare, the taxpayer will pay. People at

:33:23.:33:26.

that level understand these arguments. Where it gets, the gated

:33:27.:33:32.

is in the minutiae and the big numbers bandied around, but the

:33:33.:33:38.

question is how they are going to balance the books in an independent

:33:39.:33:42.

Scotland and I don't think that has been satisfactorily answered yet? Ed

:33:43.:33:50.

Balls, do you think he could be in trouble? That story in the Son said

:33:51.:33:56.

he could be out of a job in the autumn? -- the sun. It seems

:33:57.:34:06.

unbelievable to me that if they were going to sack him by would wait

:34:07.:34:10.

until next autumn. If they are going to do it, they should do it now.

:34:11.:34:17.

Stay with us, we will be back with you in a moment.

:34:18.:34:20.

Now as it's the final programme of the year let's take a look back with

:34:21.:34:22.

our A to Z of 2013. There is blood on your shirt. It is

:34:23.:37:35.

not mine. Scotland's future is now in

:37:36.:38:30.

Scotland's hands. There is nothing new in it, nothing published today

:38:31.:38:35.

that they could not have told us about yesterday.

:38:36.:39:28.

Never, never, and never again shall it be that this beautiful land will

:39:29.:39:41.

again experience the oppression of one by another. The sun sun never

:39:42.:39:55.

shed -- the sun shall never set on so glorious and achievement.

:39:56.:40:09.

I said, what news? So she told me that her daughter had phoned from

:40:10.:40:19.

London to alert her to the fact that I had got this prize.

:40:20.:40:28.

Good evening. Helicopter has crashed into the sea off Shetland. -- a

:40:29.:40:33.

helicopter. This is clearly anti-British and NT

:40:34.:42:42.

-- and anti-English. They hate the union Jack, so...

:42:43.:43:01.

We will freeze gas and electricity prices until the start of 2017.

:43:02.:43:53.

Regrettably, that will mean 835 job losses across Filton, the Clyde and

:43:54.:44:01.

Rosyth and the closure of the company's shipbuilding yard in

:44:02.:44:02.

Portsmouth. So, let's chew over 2013 with our

:44:03.:44:36.

political commentators. Alf Young is still here with the Sunday Times

:44:37.:44:39.

columnist Gillian Bowditch, and we're also joined by the former

:44:40.:44:41.

political editor of the Herald, Murray Ritchie. Let's start with

:44:42.:44:48.

you, money. What was your big story of 2013? What resonated with you? It

:44:49.:44:53.

is the white paper. The huge document. When you get to my age,

:44:54.:44:57.

you can barely lift it up. It is enormous and there is so much

:44:58.:45:01.

reading in it. I naively thought that when it was brought out with

:45:02.:45:05.

great fanfare, there would be a jump in the polls for the yes campaign.

:45:06.:45:10.

There was a very small, tiny jump. When you think about it, it will

:45:11.:45:15.

take months to the dad thing. The debate will take many months for all

:45:16.:45:19.

the various points in that enormous document to sink into the public

:45:20.:45:24.

understanding. It will have to be long discussion about it. I would

:45:25.:45:29.

think the yes campaign will be looking for a little lift, but I

:45:30.:45:33.

think they were maybe expecting it to sin. I think it will come for

:45:34.:45:38.

them. Politically, it is probably the biggest expected thing this

:45:39.:45:40.

year. Didn't live up to expectations? -- did it live up to

:45:41.:45:48.

expectations? It surprised me. I expected a much more visionary

:45:49.:45:54.

document that would try and sell the whole case in words that people

:45:55.:45:57.

would immediately engage with in a direct way. Facing them with 600

:45:58.:46:06.

adored pages -- 600-odd pages of dense stuff... I would have thought

:46:07.:46:11.

the number who will sit down and make their way through it will be

:46:12.:46:19.

tiny. There was talk of getting Sir William McIlvanney to write a more

:46:20.:46:28.

nuanced, flourishing kind of prose. It is not like that, the bits I have

:46:29.:46:33.

read, anyway. It is the kind of stuff you expect from civil servants

:46:34.:46:38.

at the end of the day. I just wonder whether that a striking the right

:46:39.:46:41.

note for a campaign that is behind and has to get in front. Now,

:46:42.:46:48.

there's 9-10 months to do it. How'd you look at the way the independence

:46:49.:46:55.

debate has progressed? It as the long, occasionally coming to the

:46:56.:47:02.

boil, but no big peaks troughs. It hasn't been edifying. It has been

:47:03.:47:05.

difficult for the will to engage with it. The white paper was the

:47:06.:47:11.

clearly to answer a lot of questions that the Better Together campaign

:47:12.:47:19.

had been firing. It probably stemmed from that. It needed to show there

:47:20.:47:24.

was something weighty beer. It was a document by committee. One civil

:47:25.:47:29.

servant said she had seen four paragraphs before it went out.

:47:30.:47:32.

Everyone was able to see a tiny bit, but they didn't see it all. It could

:47:33.:47:38.

have done with a good edit. It needed something visionary and we

:47:39.:47:41.

did not have that. It was a weighty document. In terms of the

:47:42.:47:45.

independence campaign, the highlight was probably Nicolai giving a big --

:47:46.:47:51.

was probably Nicola Sturgeon giving a bashing to have the debate. Let's

:47:52.:48:00.

that is better in 2014. What do you make of the debate over the course

:48:01.:48:02.

of the year? Has it reached your expectations? Not really. There is

:48:03.:48:15.

an impasse. The interesting thing, and you might disagree, but I think

:48:16.:48:18.

one of the interesting things is where the Labour vote in Scotland

:48:19.:48:27.

goes. In our days on the Herald, for 30 years, we had an opinion poll

:48:28.:48:32.

which tracks Scottish public opinion for all that time every month. It

:48:33.:48:37.

was very valuable. It fell victim to cuts, unfortunately. One of the

:48:38.:48:41.

interesting things about that was that the Labour Party pointed out to

:48:42.:48:46.

me at the time, valid to their discomfort, that up to 45%, and

:48:47.:48:53.

certainly up to 30-40%, their voters were happy with independence. They

:48:54.:48:58.

did not campaign for that come to the SNP, still voted Labour, but

:48:59.:49:00.

they were intrigued by the thought of Scotland being independent. Where

:49:01.:49:07.

are those people now? The left wing of the Labour Party as it is now is

:49:08.:49:10.

in favour of independence, but they few nowadays. The rest of it is the

:49:11.:49:16.

Jim Murphy type of attitude, just have nothing to do with it. I think

:49:17.:49:25.

once the Labour vote, once we begin to understand that, there could be

:49:26.:49:28.

significant in that and we will see where it goes. The yes campaign

:49:29.:49:35.

wanted to come over. You pick up on that point, because the undecideds

:49:36.:49:38.

are going to be a major feature in 2014. The add-in to 12-17%. -- the

:49:39.:49:50.

air around 17%. It is shrinking. It is still a big gap between now and

:49:51.:49:55.

yes in the mainstream. In terms of what he was just saying, I think the

:49:56.:50:00.

most interesting bit was what we could call the radical left. Whether

:50:01.:50:07.

it is green politics or a kind of left redistributed politics which is

:50:08.:50:09.

out with the main parties altogether. They have been filling

:50:10.:50:14.

conference halls and having great beats but they are a tiny, tiny

:50:15.:50:18.

segment of overall opinion in the country. Although that is well be

:50:19.:50:23.

interesting, exciting stuff is happening, it will not affect the

:50:24.:50:28.

overall result in a country with a country where the Green candidate in

:50:29.:50:31.

two of the by-elections which you mentioned in your list of the

:50:32.:50:33.

highlights got half the vote of UKIP. Gillian, this has been a year

:50:34.:50:41.

where we have had so many debates about the referendum, but we have

:50:42.:50:44.

not actually had an election this year, which is unusual. Next year,

:50:45.:50:48.

we have the European one, 2015 as the general election. There is no

:50:49.:50:55.

posturing around election campaign, but we will have that for the

:50:56.:50:59.

European one in 2014. That's right. There is no shortage of elections

:51:00.:51:03.

now. We have a lot of different strategies of our democracy.

:51:04.:51:08.

Politicians calls come out in force for an election and will be the same

:51:09.:51:12.

without direct -- it will be the same for the referendum. It'll do

:51:13.:51:15.

not engage until after the Commonwealth Games next summer. I'm

:51:16.:51:21.

sure some of them are keeping their powder dry. It is a very long

:51:22.:51:24.

campaign and we have not had a referendum like this. Difficult to

:51:25.:51:27.

pace themselves. Once they see the finish line, they will start to

:51:28.:51:34.

galvanise. Was there anything in 2013 that took you by surprise? It

:51:35.:51:39.

is quite interesting when you think back of Eric Joyce getting into a

:51:40.:51:42.

fight in the House of Commons, being deselected, the Falkirk and Labour

:51:43.:51:46.

selection row, that ended up in the huge Grangemouth dispute. That was

:51:47.:51:54.

quite surprising thing this year. It was horrible, actually. It was a

:51:55.:51:58.

nationally thing -- it was a nasty thing. It was a lesson in how trade

:51:59.:52:05.

unions should not behave. It does not work any more. The employer they

:52:06.:52:10.

were dealing with is a hard man with a lot of experience in getting rid

:52:11.:52:12.

of people. They picked the wrong battle ground and the wrong type of

:52:13.:52:15.

fight. But he came out of it with something. In fairness, they were

:52:16.:52:20.

provoked by the management in Grangemouth. As far as the Falkirk

:52:21.:52:24.

thing is concerned, you know, we still do not know what happened

:52:25.:52:27.

there. We have not been given a full account of all the mischief that

:52:28.:52:33.

went on the behind-the-scenes. We do not know what happened. That stinks

:52:34.:52:37.

of cover-up. That can be very dangerous for a party defending a

:52:38.:52:41.

seat like that will stop it will be very difficult for Labour to defend

:52:42.:52:47.

it, but we will see. What you make of the Grangemouth story? It really

:52:48.:52:53.

shook Scotland. It certainly took me back. In my advanced years, having

:52:54.:52:58.

spent more years than I care to say in front of factory gates as

:52:59.:53:01.

factories were shut down across Scotland, I was dragged by the BBC

:53:02.:53:04.

One morning at around seven o'clock on a morning to a rather draughty

:53:05.:53:11.

van sitting outside the gates. Suddenly, all hell broke loose

:53:12.:53:16.

because Len McCluskey arrived and there was a good old-fashioned media

:53:17.:53:22.

scrum as he went into the gates. I ended up doing about six interviews

:53:23.:53:25.

in the space of two days, which was ridiculous. It was a reminder of

:53:26.:53:32.

these big... You know, how to be placed so much of a sense of who we

:53:33.:53:38.

are is a country in the old industries? The big petrochemical

:53:39.:53:43.

plants or indeed the row generation of Royal navy frigates, the Clyde

:53:44.:53:49.

Portsmouth someone else. We invest so much in those but so much is

:53:50.:53:54.

gone. The bits that have left -- bits have been left have struggled.

:53:55.:54:03.

There was someone on saying that this country is so expensive in

:54:04.:54:06.

energy terms that they cannot run stuff like this in this country. The

:54:07.:54:08.

places to go and America the Far East. Having said that, he is

:54:09.:54:13.

bringing gas into Grangemouth and giving it a new kind of future doing

:54:14.:54:17.

that. It is complicated, difficult stuff, but money is right. The

:54:18.:54:24.

unions have not stayed up with the pace and played the game. And they

:54:25.:54:30.

have got caught out. Gillian, looking back there, two major

:54:31.:54:34.

characters of the 20th century, Margaret Thatcher and Nelson Mandela

:54:35.:54:40.

passed away in 2013. Yes, two big political figures who dominated

:54:41.:54:42.

politics in the 1980s and early 1990s. Difficult to compare the two.

:54:43.:54:49.

Nelson Mandela was an international statesman and we have just seen his

:54:50.:54:52.

funeral and the kind of acclaim he got. Margaret Thatcher, more mixed

:54:53.:54:58.

emotions, I think, certainly in Scotland, all for her passing. It

:54:59.:55:02.

was an opportunity for people to reassess some of the decisions she

:55:03.:55:09.

made and to look at, you know, possibly how blame has been unfairly

:55:10.:55:15.

apportioned the in some circumstances and to have a little

:55:16.:55:18.

bit more distance and think about our history in a more rational way.

:55:19.:55:25.

It was a real time for looking at legacies, wasn't it? I would like to

:55:26.:55:32.

go to Robben Island. I try to go when he was still there. They would

:55:33.:55:40.

not let me see him. I went to the liberal anti-apartheid campaigner,

:55:41.:55:43.

who was a great woman who was alleged to see him. She said the

:55:44.:55:50.

thing that struck about Mandela was his determination not to give in to

:55:51.:55:53.

him. They were offering allsorts of deals to him and saying that if you

:55:54.:55:57.

concede or compromise on this, we will let you out. He knew that the

:55:58.:56:02.

way he was carrying on with his lack of negotiations was making the

:56:03.:56:06.

apartheid Government in South Africa his prisoner. He was a phenomenal

:56:07.:56:11.

politician. A really remarkable man. That was hard abiding memory of

:56:12.:56:18.

him, just before he was released. He knew he was winning. You want to

:56:19.:56:25.

comment on that? I was struck by, in terms of funerals, because you have

:56:26.:56:32.

posed Thatcher and Mandela. Thatcher's funeral was a very sombre

:56:33.:56:36.

and state like affair. I watched bits at home. The Mandela funeral,

:56:37.:56:43.

and you have that widely distributed picture of Obama and Cameron almost

:56:44.:56:52.

as if it was a celebrity event. The tone and nature of each of the

:56:53.:56:55.

farewells was entirely different, it even at the level of heads of state,

:56:56.:57:01.

major powers. It is extraordinary. We're almost out of time. A funny

:57:02.:57:10.

moment of 2013? It was very sad, looking at the documentary. I'm

:57:11.:57:13.

Professor Higgs in the Nobel Prize. A great story emanating from

:57:14.:57:19.

Scotland and a man who had an idea with simple national --

:57:20.:57:24.

international obligations. That was a great story for me. Your best

:57:25.:57:31.

moment for 2013? I don't have another best moment, I don't think.

:57:32.:57:37.

Andy Murray for. He gave me an attack, but I survived. Thank you

:57:38.:57:48.

for joining us. That is all for most today and for 2013, as MSPs go off

:57:49.:57:52.

on holiday tomorrow. We'll be back on air in the new year for a very

:57:53.:57:56.

busy 2014. Until then, merry Christmas and enjoy the festive

:57:57.:57:57.

season. Goodbye.

:57:58.:58:04.

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