Episode 18 The Big Questions


Episode 18

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Today on The Big Questions, globalisation -

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will it make the world a better place for all of us?

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APPLAUSE

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Good morning! I'm Nicky Campbell, welcome to The Big Questions.

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Today we're back at Oasis Academy, MediaCityUK in Salford

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to debate one very big question - will globalisation make the world

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a better place?

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Welcome, everybody, to The Big Questions.

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Right. In the days of empire, Britain ran a global economy.

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Now we are increasingly at the mercy of one that is outside

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the control of any nation state or international body.

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Globalisation has put the world's biggest multinational corporations

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into the driving seat of international trade,

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technological progress and worldwide prosperity.

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The companies and the people who own shares in them or work

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for them may be doing very nicely,

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but it's harder to share their huge wealth through tax across

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the wider societies where they operate,

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or to get them to pay for the costs

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they impose on the environment or the benefits they take

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from spending by governments

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on education, health and infrastructure.

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Well, to debate whether globalisation is good for all of us,

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we have assembled an array - what an array -

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of distinguished economists, pioneering environmentalists,

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seasoned writers and commentators

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and campaigners for workers' rights,

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and against exploiting global poverty.

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And you can join in too on Twitter or online by logging onto...

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And follow the links to the online discussion.

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Lots of encouragement, contributions from our excellent audience

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here in Salford, which was once the hub of global trade

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in the days of empire.

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Will globalisation make the world a better place?

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I wonder if we're at a transitional point in human history,

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Guy Standing, because of course in the 19th century

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the industrial proletariat - oppressed, exploited -

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Marxism was a response to that cry of rage, do you think there

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are any comparisons, are we at a similar transitional point?

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There are comparisons.

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I think today we are in the middle point of a global transformation.

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The early phase of globalisation,

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what you have described as globalisation, began in the 1980s

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with what we economics professors call "neoliberalism".

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It wasn't called that then.

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But it was dominated by an ideology of believing in free markets,

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privatisation, commodification and the dismantling of institutions

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that stood against the market,

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what we call social solidarity institutions.

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And that period,

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where Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan were the instruments

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of putting that into force,

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gradually gave way to a domination by the big financial corporations,

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the Goldman Sachses and the JP Morgan

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and so on in Wall Street, and at the same time,

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it's not quite correct to say that this

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has been out of control by international institutions.

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What happened is, the architecture of globalisation changed.

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I've worked in Geneva for many years, and

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it moved from a point where the World Trade Organisation was

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one of the midwives of globalisation to the point where Wipo -

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the World Intellectual Property Organization - has gradually

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been used to entrench intellectual property rights.

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So we've actually moved from that neoliberalism

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into a period of what I call rentier capitalism,

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where the returns to property ownership are triumphant

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over free markets, and in particular,

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intellectual property rights have multiplied hugely since 1995,

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giving billions and billions of dollars,

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euros or pounds to the plutocratic corporations that own

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the patents and the copyrights and so on,

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and taking things out of the market, so at the moment,

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it's a lie to say we have a free-market economy,

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but to conclude the point, I think globally...

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globalisation has benefited millions and millions of people,

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raising their incomes,

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but in Western Europe and in Britain in particular,

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we have actually seen declining real wages, stagnant real wages...

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-OK.

-..and declining living standards.

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I want to take it to the last point.

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It's so fascinating what you said, and we've got so much to get into,

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and there are so many profound implications to all of this.

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Linda Yueh, just on that last point of Guy's,

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take it to the streets, take it out to our viewers, globalisation,

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in what ways have they won - or will win -

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and in what ways are they the losers?

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I think for people in Britain

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there have been benefits from globalisation,

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but there are also those who have been left behind by this process.

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So globalisation, if you think of it as opening up

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to the transmission of ideas, of people,

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of resources across national borders, I think there are reasons

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to think we have benefited from, say, technology from America.

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Well, for instance, take the iPhone, or any smartphone. 20 years ago...

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-It's revolutionised the world.

-Exactly.

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20 years ago, Nicky, only a fifth of the Western world had access

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to a mobile phone, 1% of the developing world.

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Today, I would venture a guess everyone here

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has some type of mobile phone and device,

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so I think in that way, an American product made in China,

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or a Finnish product that's been made in Eastern Europe,

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I think we have benefited from that,

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but that's not to say that everyone has benefited equally,

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because globalisation is tied up

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with structural change in the economy.

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So we've had deindustrialisation,

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we've had issues around those who have benefited more

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from this process, owners of capital, I would agree with that,

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and those who have felt their incomes squeezed and are

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working in sectors in which Britain no longer produces as much,

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and I think for globalisation and for us to reap the benefits

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of globalisation, I think we have to address

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those who are left behind.

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But not to forget that we in Britain,

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especially after Brexit, talk a lot about being global,

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being open, because being the world's fifth biggest economy

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requires being a stakeholder in this global system

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and actually working to improve it.

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And just very quickly, in the rest of the world,

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thinking about audiences beyond Britain,

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a billion people have been lifted out of poverty since 1990.

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We are actually at a historic point,

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where one in ten of the people in the world live in extreme poverty,

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on less than 1.90 a day,

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adjusted for what a dollar buys in that country.

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We have actually not been at this point before,

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and that has to do with the opening up of the emerging markets,

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like China, India, Eastern Europe.

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So I think, overall,

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we are living through a tremendous period of change,

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and I think for all of us in this country,

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it is about how we can put in institutions to manage that change

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so it can be shared more equitably and have more buy-in in the future.

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And Katy Wright from Oxfam, it's lifted people out of poverty

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in a way we could not have imagined, more than anything

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ever has or will, and that's a tremendous positive of it,

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but if I go back to our friend Karl Marx,

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who we mentioned earlier on,

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he did talk about the spread of capitalism across the globe

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in search of new markets, that has absolutely happened,

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what he didn't predict was what I've just said,

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that so many people would be lifted out of poverty.

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How do you see it?

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I think that absolutely has to be accepted and recognised

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that you need drivers of economic growth if people are going to

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lift themselves out of poverty, and as Linda said,

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we have seen people being lifted out of poverty.

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But there are several things to say.

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The first is, you're talking about lifting someone up from

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1.90 a day to just over that, and then you say,

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"Right, they're out of poverty, job done."

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APPLAUSE

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A colleague of mine is just back from working with

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an Oxfam programme in Myanmar,

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so he's talking to four sisters and a cousin

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who work in one of Myanmar's export processing zones,

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so making garments in the garment industry.

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They live in a room,

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you can't ignore the smell of sewage outside their tiny room in the city.

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They're earning 2.80 a day,

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which isn't enough to live on, especially if they get sick.

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But they don't get sick leave,

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they've nothing to pay for medicines, they work six hours a day

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11 days a week, so they give their whole lives for this 2.80 a day,

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which is called an opportunity - which it is, in relative sense.

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And this isn't an accident,

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this is exactly how these industries are designed to work.

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-And it's the garments we are happy to buy, isn't it?

-Exactly.

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And also, they know how we are living more than ever before,

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don't they? Because they see it in the way we communicate now.

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Well, absolutely, there is this idea - go to the city,

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-get this opportunity...

-And they want those opportunities.

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Of course they do, because it's better than nothing,

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but there's a fascinating excerpt from the Asian Development Bank -

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so an organisation that is supposed to help people get out of poverty,

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and it's talking about Cambodia's export processing zones,

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and saying, "These jobs are absolutely fitted for women.

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"They have the nimble fingers and patience for these kind

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"of tasks and they don't strike and disrupt production."

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You can imagine that being said about children here

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in Manchester 200 years ago, working in the factories,

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and this is the explicit policy, and it comes...

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Globalisation and opening up, absolutely a good thing,

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but when it's married to these kind of policies

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that Guy was talking about,

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wrapped up in the neoliberalism agenda,

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that's when you get...

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It's basically a really missed opportunity when it could

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have taken a lot more people out of poverty.

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I think we should be very, very careful about saying,

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"Well, that's just a billion people."

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A billion people who can send their children to a better school,

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who can plan for the future, who can put money away in case they

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get sick when they couldn't have done that before.

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I think we have to be very careful about treating people

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like statistics, because they're not, they're real people.

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I really, really disagree with Guy's numbers, actually.

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I think if you look at the data, the official data,

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the UK has become much richer in the last 30 years.

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We have become about twice as rich as we were, in real terms,

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in inflation-adjusted terms,

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and that doesn't even account for how much cheaper things are,

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because wages and incomes and living standards are both about

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how much you earn and what you can buy with that,

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and we know that trade is best for people at the bottom.

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Trade is profoundly good, it's most good,

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for people at the bottom of society,

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because it means that better food is available to them

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for less money, better clothes are available to them for less money,

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and the data is really, really striking.

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Come back quickly on that, Guy.

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Guy, if you would just let me finish.

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People at the bottom are about 70% better off,

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or 170% better off than they would be without trade.

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People at the top are only about 30% better off

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than they would be without trade.

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Trade is for the poor, and it's lifting not just the poor

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in the developing world up, but the poor in our country up as well.

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SCATTERED APPLAUSE

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-This could be an interesting discussion.

-Well, I hope so!

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I think that most of us here would be in favour of globalisation

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in terms of opening up markets,

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which has certainly increased the growth rate

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of China and India and so on.

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I think if you look at the case of Britain,

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and across the world, in fact, what's been happening is that

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the share of income being created

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going to capital has been shooting up,

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the share going to labour has been shooting down.

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And if you look at the United States, Germany, France,

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I've just come from Spain,

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average real wages have been stagnant for 30 years.

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-That's not true.

-It's a fact.

-Look at the official data,

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go onto the ONS website and they will tell you you're wrong.

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I assure you. And what has been happening

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is an extraordinary phenomenon, is that when

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productivity goes up, it used to be the case that average wages went up.

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But in numerous countries,

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productivity has been going up and real wages have been stagnating.

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So we have an income distribution problem...

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Why is that happening, then?

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We'll get Sam back in a minute, but in a nutshell?

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In a nutshell, the returns to property - financial property,

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intellectual property and physical property - have been going up,

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the tax rates on profits have been going down,

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whereas the returns to labour have been going down,

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and it is partly to do with the technological revolution

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that's taking place, partly to do with labour market flexibility,

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which has weakened the bargaining position of people

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relying on wages for their earnings.

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OK, Sam, do you want to come back in a minute?

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But, Rose, I see you were bouncing to come in there.

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I'd like to pick up on the two examples of the goods that

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are available to us, which is the clothing and the mobile phones.

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For example, with the clothing, the downward pressure on wages

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is really affecting people in many different countries.

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In Myanmar, they're competing particularly with Cambodia

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to lower wage costs in order to produce the clothing cheaply,

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so you get this race to the bottom, which is a key factor

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in globalisation, and as well as having lower labour costs,

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you've got tremendous public expenditure on

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the infrastructure to support these corporations,

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like these special economic zones in Myanmar. I gather there's

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a new one coming, even bigger, and it will be public expenditure,

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with lucrative contracts to the corporations to build the ports,

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the roads, the warehouses, etc.

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So you've got the public sector supporting globalisation

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but often getting very low wages in return,

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and with the mobile phones you have got...

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Tends to be scouring the globe for low-cost minerals,

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where it can be the case now that the tax incentives

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and the other subsidies to the corporations that are

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extracting the minerals, they can be not...just not making

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a revenue from the exports, but can actually be making a net loss.

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And then you've got downward pressure on wages,

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terribly, as well.

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And huge environmental issues as well.

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Linda, this is bad for a lot of people,

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but what about the argument that it's better than it was before

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and it's better than it otherwise would have been?

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I think that's exactly probably the position that

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a lot of economists would say -

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that the opening up of the global economy...

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Just think about the opposite scenario where you had

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a world divided by the Iron Curtain,

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you had a world where countries looked inward

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rather than engaging externally, so I completely agree,

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there are huge distributional impact,

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especially on wages, in traded sectors,

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and I think of course the job isn't done on poverty.

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I think that line is quite arbitrary about extreme poverty,

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but it is also worth stressing that this kind of progress

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has been possible through globalisation and the combination

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of many, many other things, including technology,

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but that doesn't mean that we should say it's all good or bad.

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For every good economic gain,

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we have to think about the consequences, the left behind,

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the downward wage pressure, the impact on the environment.

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All of those things pose a policy challenge as to how

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you address that, but we should never think the world today

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is not as good as it was in the 1980s,

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before the real opening up of many, many economies in the world -

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with a couple of exceptions.

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I'm not going to say everyone is there, North Korea, for instance,

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has not opened up, and that might be an example of a country...

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We probably shouldn't spend too much time on it!

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LAUGHTER

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There are countries that haven't opened up.

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David, I will come to you in a second.

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But, Tom, I suppose what some people are crying for here is -

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what's the word? - compassionate capitalism?

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Compassionate globalisation, or is that a contradiction in terms?

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Well, I think it's just not really what we should be focused on.

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One of the big problems, especially in relation to the Third World,

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is this obsession with things like sustainability.

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Sustainable development, and the form that often takes

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is by various intergovernmental bodies trying to suppress

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the things which generate wealth,

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which generate new industrial revolutions,

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and I think one of the big problems that happens in this debate

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is that what gets grouped together as globalisation is seen as

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this kind of deterministic, impersonal force,

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-whereas a lot of the economic problems...

-Inexorable as well.

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Exactly. And a lot of the economic problems we experience,

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either in Britain or in countries around the world,

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have a lot more to do with what's going on domestically,

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and are a matter, whether it's in terms

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of agitating for more wages or, in this country,

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I think the big issue we need to confront is

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reckoning with our flat-lining productivity and low pay.

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It just treats all these things as if they are deterministic,

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impersonal forces that we have no control over whatsoever.

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Both sides of the debate sometimes assume that it's

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entirely outside forces which shape this, whereas I think we need to,

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particularly post-Brexit,

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we've got an opportunity to bring that discussion back home.

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So, David, have we taken back control here,

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or are we kind of a cork bobbing on the sea?

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-Well, a bit of both.

-NICKY LAUGHS

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I think globalisation is not a force of nature,

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it is a man-made process, lots of man-made processes that have

0:17:580:18:03

been going on, and of course, it creates great dilemmas.

0:18:030:18:08

The dilemma that we have already talked about,

0:18:080:18:10

the fact that it's made everybody richer,

0:18:100:18:12

it's made the poor particularly a lot richer in recent years,

0:18:120:18:16

with extreme poverty falling to below 10% of the global population.

0:18:160:18:20

These are enormous achievements, but it has also,

0:18:200:18:25

particularly in the rich world,

0:18:250:18:27

changed the atmosphere pretty dramatically.

0:18:270:18:30

And the group that has done least well out of globalisation

0:18:300:18:34

are people on middle and low incomes in rich countries,

0:18:340:18:37

and that is where European and American populism has risen from.

0:18:370:18:43

And what has been going on is,

0:18:430:18:45

we have moved into a much more intrusive form of globalisation.

0:18:450:18:50

We've had different forms of globalisation going back

0:18:500:18:53

hundreds of years, as you said right at the beginning,

0:18:530:18:56

the British Empire was a form of globalisation.

0:18:560:18:59

But if you look back at the 1970s,

0:18:590:19:01

we had something called the Gatt rules.

0:19:010:19:04

And this was mainly between rich countries,

0:19:040:19:06

it was mainly for manufacturing goods, there were lots of

0:19:060:19:09

national vetoes to the international rules

0:19:090:19:11

-that were laid down.

-General agreements on tariffs and trade.

0:19:110:19:14

We then moved to the WTO and it became much more intrusive

0:19:140:19:17

-on national sovereignty.

-Yes.

0:19:170:19:19

And at the same time, we have the same thing in Europe.

0:19:190:19:21

We echoed and reflected a similar process in the European Union.

0:19:210:19:25

It became much more intrusive, with the single market,

0:19:250:19:29

with enlargement in particular, which, I think, in retrospect,

0:19:290:19:32

it turns out to have been an enormous mistake

0:19:320:19:34

and is the reason why we are now leaving the European Union,

0:19:340:19:37

even though, ironically,

0:19:370:19:38

Britain was one of the great promoters of enlargement.

0:19:380:19:40

Let me just give you one example of how it has intruded on things

0:19:400:19:45

that people thought of as part of their national sacred control.

0:19:450:19:51

It's immigration and freedom of movement.

0:19:510:19:55

Going back to post-colonial immigration, in the post-war period,

0:19:550:19:58

it wasn't popular to begin with but people got used to it,

0:19:580:20:02

and in the '80s and '90s, there was a kind of settlement,

0:20:020:20:07

a kind of agreement that the political class

0:20:070:20:10

reduced the numbers and the population accepted it.

0:20:100:20:15

And that is what happened. Numbers came down quite sharply

0:20:150:20:18

in the '80s and '90s.

0:20:180:20:20

Now, we move to the European immigration,

0:20:200:20:22

starting in 2004, we were expecting 15,000 people a year to come,

0:20:220:20:25

in fact, about a million and a half people came

0:20:250:20:28

over a four or five year period. Many, many more than expected...

0:20:280:20:31

And Tony Blair acknowledges his own mistakes.

0:20:310:20:33

And people looked to Parliament to say, "We don't like this,

0:20:330:20:35

"we're not against immigration, we just don't want it on this scale."

0:20:350:20:39

And Parliament was unable to do anything about it,

0:20:390:20:42

and that is the dilemma, that we have a much more intrusive form

0:20:420:20:46

of globalisation and so much has been taken out of politics.

0:20:460:20:50

So much has been depoliticised and handed over to technocrats.

0:20:500:20:53

There is a huge elephant in the room here that people have

0:20:530:20:56

sort of hinted at, which is technological change.

0:20:560:20:58

We are living through the largest technological change

0:20:580:21:01

in history since the Industrial Revolution,

0:21:010:21:03

and almost nobody is aware of how much it's changing our lives.

0:21:030:21:06

One estimate says that nine out of the ten manufacturing jobs

0:21:060:21:09

that are destroyed are not destroyed by globalisation or trade,

0:21:090:21:14

they are destroyed by technology, by us being able to

0:21:140:21:16

roboticise manufacturing, and in fact,

0:21:160:21:18

the UK manufactures more than it ever has,

0:21:180:21:21

we just do it with far fewer workers.

0:21:210:21:23

But the reason that's so important is because in our history

0:21:230:21:26

we have misinterpreted change like this and we have tried to stop it

0:21:260:21:30

and thrown up tariffs, and exactly what that did was hurt the poor.

0:21:300:21:33

And at the end of the 19th century,

0:21:330:21:36

that's what drove the demand for communism,

0:21:360:21:38

for fascism and for all of the things that we are facing at

0:21:380:21:40

the moment that we really, really don't want to come back.

0:21:400:21:43

-We have...

-We have to recognise it's technology

0:21:430:21:45

driving this change and that is inexorable,

0:21:450:21:47

that's something we can't stop.

0:21:470:21:49

I want to hear from the audience,

0:21:490:21:50

then we're going to talk about the cultural challenges,

0:21:500:21:52

which you've led us onto nicely,

0:21:520:21:54

talking about the immigration over the years.

0:21:540:21:56

Does anybody want to say something? You wanted to say something about...

0:21:560:21:59

Brief comments about globalisation, what it means to you. Yes.

0:21:590:22:02

Well, I speak as a trade unionist,

0:22:020:22:04

and rather than the corporate argument, I am more concerned

0:22:040:22:08

about the wellbeing of the workforce internationally.

0:22:080:22:12

I'm pretty active within the TUC,

0:22:120:22:14

and the British TUC have been very effective in working with

0:22:140:22:18

the ILO and addressing the exploitation of labour,

0:22:180:22:22

even the exploitation of the environment

0:22:220:22:25

right throughout the world.

0:22:250:22:26

And you mentioned earlier, Nicky,

0:22:260:22:28

you quoted Marx, I think Marx is right in many ways,

0:22:280:22:32

stand up for all, all for one and all for all,

0:22:320:22:36

I think we should do that.

0:22:360:22:39

This argument is now an international argument.

0:22:390:22:42

We have seen even in our own country, zero-hour contracts,

0:22:420:22:46

the exploitation,

0:22:460:22:47

complete lack of health and safety and the very basics that we take...

0:22:470:22:51

I just want to move on, has globalisation made that worse?

0:22:510:22:53

Is it exacerbating all those problems?

0:22:530:22:55

I think globalisation, having exploited even

0:22:550:22:59

the indigenous peoples in the countries like South America...

0:22:590:23:02

Anyone else? Just a quick...

0:23:020:23:04

We'll go for you first, then I'll come to you later on. Quick point.

0:23:040:23:09

Yes, the downside of globalisation has to be

0:23:090:23:12

multinational corporations.

0:23:120:23:15

The downside of this, they are, as the gentleman said,

0:23:150:23:19

they are exploiting the labour, child labourers,

0:23:190:23:23

the people who are losing in globalisation.

0:23:230:23:27

In terms of multicultural companies,

0:23:270:23:29

those people who are actually making the nice leather Nike shoes,

0:23:290:23:35

pair of shoes.

0:23:350:23:38

And these people are really losing,

0:23:380:23:40

and if you see that Nike is the winner, the consumer also is

0:23:400:23:45

the winner of the globalisation, but those people in the very bottom...

0:23:450:23:49

Yeah, because of these corporations, and we will address this,

0:23:490:23:52

because they are incredibly...

0:23:520:23:53

I mean, they're more powerful than many countries.

0:23:530:23:56

-Can I...?

-I want to move it on if I may, Guy.

0:23:560:24:00

Because we want to talk about the cultural issues...

0:24:000:24:03

I just wanted to make a point about the technological revolution.

0:24:030:24:06

-We...

-We've past that one?

0:24:060:24:08

I tell you what, we might come back to it when we talk about

0:24:080:24:10

solutions in the future, which is going to be our last section.

0:24:100:24:13

-Keep that thought, if you would.

-I'll keep it.

0:24:130:24:16

So, yeah, Maya, we haven't heard from you yet.

0:24:160:24:18

Let's talk about those cultural challenges,

0:24:180:24:20

the globalisation of people, if you like.

0:24:200:24:25

People going around the world through history

0:24:250:24:28

has made the world go round, hasn't it?

0:24:280:24:31

But there are people in this country,

0:24:310:24:33

and David was speaking about it,

0:24:330:24:35

who have seen rapid change in front of their eyes,

0:24:350:24:38

and they have also been sneered at

0:24:380:24:40

by the liberal intelligentsia as racists.

0:24:400:24:43

I think that's a bit of a crude analysis

0:24:430:24:45

of what's actually happened.

0:24:450:24:46

I think the whole immigration debate needs to be put in

0:24:460:24:49

a broader context in which migrants have been consistently scapegoated.

0:24:490:24:53

We've seen migrants blamed for low pay,

0:24:530:24:55

crumbling public services, and what's actually going on,

0:24:550:24:58

all the evidence shows, from the LSE to the OECD,

0:24:580:25:01

that migrants aren't a significant factor in low pay and that

0:25:010:25:04

it's underinvestment in our public services

0:25:040:25:06

that's leading them to collapse.

0:25:060:25:08

So I think that there are a number of things going on with

0:25:080:25:11

people's cultural anxiety, I think that is a real thing,

0:25:110:25:14

I'm not denying that it is, and we need to look at

0:25:140:25:16

the other factors alongside immigration.

0:25:160:25:18

But just to talk about immigration first,

0:25:180:25:20

I think the whole immigration debate needs to be recognised.

0:25:200:25:25

Zubaida Haque from the Runnymede Trust has talked about this -

0:25:250:25:28

that anti-immigration sentiment is not always correlating with

0:25:280:25:31

the numbers of immigrants in the country.

0:25:310:25:32

So if you go back to 1978, you will see that when net immigration

0:25:320:25:37

was zero, 70% of people in Britain said that they felt their culture

0:25:370:25:42

was being swamped by migrants.

0:25:420:25:44

So what that tells us is,

0:25:440:25:45

we need to be recognising that anti-immigration sentiment

0:25:450:25:48

is very deeply entrenched in this country,

0:25:480:25:50

-and we need to be addressing...

-Well, is it?

0:25:500:25:52

Because we have had a lot of attitudinal change

0:25:520:25:54

on many social issues since 1978

0:25:540:25:57

which goes against that particular tide.

0:25:570:25:59

So, can you compare like with like?

0:25:590:26:01

Well, I think that what we can look at is the fact that there

0:26:010:26:04

has consistently been a hostile environment to migrants.

0:26:040:26:07

If you look at government policy from the 1960s, there was

0:26:070:26:09

a concerted effort to keep migrants of colour out of this country.

0:26:090:26:12

So what I'm saying is not that we should be ignoring

0:26:120:26:15

people's concerns, often deeply legitimate concerns,

0:26:150:26:18

but we should be recognising that instead of just

0:26:180:26:20

calling people racist, we should be addressing why there is prejudice.

0:26:200:26:23

That's not to say that everyone who is anti-immigration is racist,

0:26:230:26:26

but it is to recognise that there is an element of racism

0:26:260:26:28

and prejudice within that anti-migrant feeling,

0:26:280:26:31

and I think that we need to be addressing that,

0:26:310:26:33

trying to break down difference as opposed to reinforcing it,

0:26:330:26:36

because people all over the world have far more in common

0:26:360:26:39

than a lot of this discourse would have us believe.

0:26:390:26:41

Douglas, you've written about the cultural challenges,

0:26:470:26:50

what would you say to Maya?

0:26:500:26:52

I entirely disagree.

0:26:520:26:54

I think you would be hard pushed to find a single country in

0:26:540:26:57

the world that has been as tolerant

0:26:570:26:59

and as welcoming of migration as this one.

0:26:590:27:02

I cannot think of one anywhere in the world.

0:27:020:27:07

I've travelled widely, not just in our continent but across the world,

0:27:070:27:10

and I can assure you that if the numbers that came into

0:27:100:27:12

this country over the post-war period

0:27:120:27:14

up until now had gone into any other country in the world

0:27:140:27:17

that we would be seeing a very different response.

0:27:170:27:19

And I think this is a knee-jerk assault on the British people

0:27:190:27:24

which is continuing and should stop.

0:27:240:27:26

We were talking earlier about some of the economic implications.

0:27:260:27:29

The economic implications of globalisation include

0:27:290:27:31

the possibility that people born in this country, er, the same time

0:27:310:27:35

as somebody in this country has a child,

0:27:350:27:38

they are competing with dozens of other children around the world

0:27:380:27:42

to get to the lifestyle and benefits that people across the world

0:27:420:27:45

would dream of and which people in this country think

0:27:450:27:48

is their birthright, and that's changing.

0:27:480:27:50

And that's going to change across all sorts of parts

0:27:500:27:53

of the developed world, and one of the things that makes that change

0:27:530:27:56

far, far more painful is the idea that it will happen

0:27:560:27:59

simultaneously with an assault on their identity,

0:27:590:28:04

because people can potentially take the stagnation of wages,

0:28:040:28:08

they can potentially take living standards questions,

0:28:080:28:10

but if the same time you say, "Oh, and by the way,

0:28:100:28:13

"maybe we don't always say you're racists, but we sort of imply it,"

0:28:130:28:18

then I think you're going to build up a lot of problems for the future.

0:28:180:28:22

And by the way, very quickly, on your 1970s point, one of the things

0:28:220:28:26

about migration is, it takes a long time for that effect to happen.

0:28:260:28:28

If you look at the opinion polls on migration in this country

0:28:280:28:32

that followed the influx after the Blair government,

0:28:320:28:35

it took time for people's attitudes to harden on migration,

0:28:350:28:39

precisely because the impact of that migration takes time to happen.

0:28:390:28:44

So as well as misrepresenting the facts,

0:28:440:28:46

I think you just have to be extremely careful not to say

0:28:460:28:50

this country, which as I say is the most tolerant in the world,

0:28:500:28:54

is in fact the most bigoted,

0:28:540:28:55

because if you travel anywhere around the world

0:28:550:28:57

you will see a very different picture.

0:28:570:28:59

I would just like... I think Douglas makes a very important point there.

0:28:590:29:02

This point about tolerance, as far as I'm concerned,

0:29:020:29:04

is part of the problem.

0:29:040:29:05

For decades, people have been told to put up with people

0:29:050:29:08

and there's never been a concerted explanation to demystify difference.

0:29:080:29:11

So people have been told, "Put up with that person

0:29:110:29:14

"living down the street,

0:29:140:29:15

"they're different, they've come from a different country,

0:29:150:29:18

"maybe they cook a different cuisine..."

0:29:180:29:20

But can I ask you something,

0:29:200:29:21

because this comes to the heart of what

0:29:210:29:22

so many people are debating at the moment, and it's actually at

0:29:220:29:25

the heart of Douglas' book,

0:29:250:29:26

and we'll get his response to it in a moment.

0:29:260:29:29

What if they have a fundamentally different

0:29:290:29:31

set of values, social values? Because we have come through, well,

0:29:310:29:34

it's the 500th anniversary of the Reformation this year,

0:29:340:29:37

we've had that, we've had the Enlightenment,

0:29:370:29:40

the Age of Reason, it's been a long road to where we are today

0:29:400:29:43

for our, broadly speaking, liberal values.

0:29:430:29:46

What if people are inimical to those?

0:29:460:29:48

So firstly, we need to look at the fact that the history

0:29:480:29:51

of Britain is one of people coming in and out of the country.

0:29:510:29:53

So this idea that values exist in this kind of

0:29:530:29:56

hermetically sealed unit of the nation state

0:29:560:29:58

quite clearly isn't true.

0:29:580:29:59

If you look at David Olusoga's Black Britain,

0:29:590:30:01

you see that over 2,000 years

0:30:010:30:02

people have been coming in and out of

0:30:020:30:04

this country contributing ideas and to social change,

0:30:040:30:07

and what I would like to be answered on this question of social values -

0:30:070:30:10

what are the social values,

0:30:100:30:12

what are the social values we feel are at risk because of migration?

0:30:120:30:15

Let's pinpoint them, particularly because this is consistently

0:30:150:30:18

-talked about on the right and it's never quite clear.

-I can do.

0:30:180:30:21

Firstly, on your point about the constant movement, actually,

0:30:210:30:23

the movement into these islands in particular

0:30:230:30:26

has been really minimal over...

0:30:260:30:27

What was the biggest event of the last millennium,

0:30:270:30:30

the Norman Conquest?

0:30:300:30:31

About a 5% population shift as a cause of the Norman Conquest.

0:30:310:30:35

So this idea that the movement has been perennial...

0:30:350:30:37

Also, the movement that you're talking about most of

0:30:370:30:40

the time is movement from France, with the Huguenots, for instance,

0:30:400:30:43

Protestant French people,

0:30:430:30:44

or movement from Ireland into what we now call mainland Britain.

0:30:440:30:48

That is not the same as somebody from Eritrea or Ghana

0:30:480:30:52

or Myanmar moving in to live in Salford,

0:30:520:30:55

it's a totally different movement and you should admit that.

0:30:550:30:57

So what's so different about people from Eritrea and Myanmar?

0:30:570:31:00

-My God...

-Tell me specifically.

-You can't have gone anywhere.

0:31:000:31:03

-Specifically.

-You can't have gone anywhere if

0:31:030:31:05

you honestly have to ask that question.

0:31:050:31:06

-It is a simple statement...

-Well, answer it for our benefit.

0:31:060:31:09

It is a simple statement of the obvious that countries

0:31:090:31:11

-and cultures have differences, it doesn't mean...

-What cultures?

0:31:110:31:14

What are the cultural specificities?

0:31:140:31:16

OK, I'll give you like a history lesson.

0:31:160:31:18

-This country...

-I don't need to be patronised.

0:31:180:31:20

..has throughout most of its history

0:31:200:31:22

been a, for instance, Christian country,

0:31:220:31:25

it has been... I'm not a practising Christian myself,

0:31:250:31:27

but it's been historically a Christian country,

0:31:270:31:29

particularly a Protestant Christian country.

0:31:290:31:32

-I mean, there's Christians in...

-If I may just finish.

0:31:320:31:34

You see, you asked me to define something and then I try,

0:31:340:31:37

-and then you talk.

-You're being very rude, Douglas.

0:31:370:31:41

I feel like you're being very rude.

0:31:410:31:44

In this country,

0:31:440:31:46

the institutions that epitomised our country were

0:31:460:31:48

an established monarchy, for instance,

0:31:480:31:50

the establishment of Parliament,

0:31:500:31:51

the establishment of the judiciary and of the law courts,

0:31:510:31:54

the establishment of the great educational institutions,

0:31:540:31:57

I could go on and on.

0:31:570:31:59

Now, you see, one of the problems is, whenever people say,

0:31:590:32:02

"What is this thing that you call Britain?" We have an identity.

0:32:020:32:06

It's forever being put on a psychiatrist's couch now

0:32:060:32:08

and being deconstructed,

0:32:080:32:10

but we have an identity just as other people have an identity.

0:32:100:32:13

We don't have to war or hate each other,

0:32:130:32:15

but we should recognise it exists.

0:32:150:32:16

OK, Maya, I will come back to you, just hold fire just a second.

0:32:160:32:19

Let's all... OK, Guy.

0:32:190:32:21

I just want to put in a stylised fact.

0:32:210:32:23

We actually, in this country,

0:32:230:32:24

do not have a very high percentage of migrants.

0:32:240:32:28

It's actually slightly less than the European average.

0:32:280:32:31

I happen to be a migrant who lives in Europe

0:32:310:32:35

and works in Europe, and I don't share your values,

0:32:350:32:38

I don't share your identity, I share many of the identities and values

0:32:380:32:43

of people with whom I live in Europe.

0:32:430:32:46

And I think this is complete nonsense, if I may say so,

0:32:460:32:50

because I think we're no more tolerant or less tolerant.

0:32:500:32:54

Some people are tolerant in this country,

0:32:540:32:56

we've absorbed many groups over the years,

0:32:560:33:01

but so have many other countries, and it's great. It's great.

0:33:010:33:04

-DAVID:

-Well, no, it isn't great...

0:33:040:33:06

-David.

-We now have a populist reaction against...

0:33:070:33:12

"It isn't great", you said.

0:33:120:33:13

No, it isn't. But you're also wrong, we're close to the top

0:33:130:33:18

in terms of numbers over the last 20 years or so.

0:33:180:33:21

-We're not.

-We are.

-13%.

-No, it's more than that now.

-It's not.

0:33:210:33:26

But anyway, we have had a very big change,

0:33:260:33:30

the immigrant and minority population in Britain was about

0:33:300:33:34

four million in the '90s, it is now closer to 11 million.

0:33:340:33:39

And in many places, this has led to a great change.

0:33:390:33:42

But at the same time, people in all places, at all times,

0:33:420:33:45

are hostile to large-scale immigration,

0:33:450:33:47

we just have to be realistic.

0:33:470:33:49

People prefer similarity and familiarity and stability

0:33:490:33:52

in their lives, and that's just a fact of life.

0:33:520:33:55

But at the same time that the numbers have been going up

0:33:550:33:58

and the anxiety and the wariness about it has been going up,

0:33:580:34:01

racial hostility, racist attitudes have been going down.

0:34:010:34:04

I've just written a book about the value divides in British society.

0:34:040:34:07

You look at the British social attitude surveys, on all the...

0:34:070:34:10

That's what I hinted at earlier on, our social attitudes have changed.

0:34:100:34:13

Absolutely. A huge liberalisation, a great liberalisation

0:34:130:34:16

has gone on over sexuality, over gender, and over race too.

0:34:160:34:21

And I think there's something else we have to remember.

0:34:210:34:25

I mean, we have an absolutely in-your-face globalisation.

0:34:250:34:29

It's one thing if your factory closes and moves to China

0:34:290:34:33

or Myanmar, that's one thing,

0:34:330:34:35

but when that happens, and then a whole different population from you

0:34:350:34:40

is imported in your country to compete with you in your own place,

0:34:400:34:43

that's a very, very big difference.

0:34:430:34:45

If I may, let me pick you up on something, I just want to

0:34:450:34:48

wind it back to something you said that about the fact

0:34:480:34:51

that we've had a huge liberalisation process in this country.

0:34:510:34:54

Would you say in Europe we have the world gold standard of human rights?

0:34:540:34:58

-Would we say we are the leaders...

-Well, we started first.

0:34:580:35:02

I mean, our antidiscrimination rules, which we drew partly from

0:35:020:35:05

America in the mid-'60s,

0:35:050:35:06

they set the tone for much of what was happening.

0:35:060:35:08

Maya, how do we lead the rest of the world,

0:35:080:35:10

and bring them to our gold standard, our more...

0:35:100:35:13

provocative here, our more advanced human rights?

0:35:130:35:16

I don't agree with this idea that we're bringing the rest of the world

0:35:160:35:19

-and we were leading, if you look at the history...

-Are we leading?

0:35:190:35:22

No, if you look at the history of the British Empire,

0:35:220:35:24

-it's a very bloody history.

-I'm talking about now.

0:35:240:35:27

But now, I think that...

0:35:270:35:28

In terms of LGBT, in terms of women...

0:35:280:35:30

I think that racial attitudes actually, if you look at the British

0:35:300:35:34

social attitudes survey, there's increasing people who say

0:35:340:35:37

they are intolerant and don't like people of different races.

0:35:370:35:40

That's actually increasing.

0:35:400:35:42

There has been an upward blip in a long downward trend.

0:35:420:35:45

An upward blip because the change has been so radical around it.

0:35:450:35:48

We can't ignore that,

0:35:480:35:49

and to come back to Douglas's point originally,

0:35:490:35:51

we need to probe more, this idea that British society,

0:35:510:35:55

he listed the monarchy, Parliament,

0:35:550:35:58

that it's somehow under threat

0:35:580:36:01

from people from Eritrea, Ghana and Myanmar.

0:36:010:36:03

That's not clear to me how that's the case.

0:36:030:36:05

You've listed these institutions, but you haven't

0:36:050:36:08

explained exactly what it is that is under threat from these people.

0:36:080:36:11

Let's go back to Douglas, because he has to answer that.

0:36:110:36:14

APPLAUSE

0:36:140:36:16

He's had a direct challenge there.

0:36:160:36:19

Then, Sam, I'm going to come to you and Linda...

0:36:190:36:21

I'm going to go Linda first, then Sam,

0:36:210:36:22

but, Douglas, answer that direct challenge from Maya.

0:36:220:36:25

You can do it on all sorts of things - historic attitudes,

0:36:250:36:28

or you can do it on, for instance, current social attitudes,

0:36:280:36:31

which I'll throw out as one example.

0:36:310:36:33

I'll take an example that Nicky just cited of tolerance.

0:36:330:36:37

I think we agree in Britain that we're a tolerant country.

0:36:370:36:40

We're meant to be tolerant, we try to be a tolerant country and so on.

0:36:400:36:43

Polling recently showed that the more immigration you have,

0:36:430:36:45

the less tolerance you have on certain issues,

0:36:450:36:48

not because we the British people have become intolerant,

0:36:480:36:51

but because people come with views of their own.

0:36:510:36:53

Let me give you a quick example.

0:36:530:36:55

A poll carried out two years ago by YouGov,

0:36:550:36:58

asked people their opinions on homosexuality,

0:36:580:37:01

morally acceptable, or morally not acceptable?

0:37:010:37:03

Across the country as a whole, about 14% of the British people

0:37:030:37:07

said homosexuality was not morally acceptable.

0:37:070:37:10

In London, it was double that. Why would that be?

0:37:100:37:13

Is it because London, the capital city, is just

0:37:130:37:17

a particular home of homophobia, or might it be, as I would suggest,

0:37:170:37:21

because people come into the country with attitudes of their own.

0:37:210:37:23

You may deprecate that, and I deprecate that,

0:37:230:37:26

but we should at least acknowledge it - you're trying to cover it over.

0:37:260:37:29

No, I think that actually, this poll... There's another poll

0:37:290:37:33

which shows actually, it asks about attitudes towards homosexuality and

0:37:330:37:36

same sex marriage and you actually find, apart from Scotland,

0:37:360:37:39

in one of the questions, London has better attitudes towards

0:37:390:37:42

homosexuality than the rest of the country.

0:37:420:37:45

But you know, Maya, they could be evangelical Christians,

0:37:450:37:48

there could be certain Muslim communities,

0:37:480:37:50

you know that attitudes are harder on that, that's...

0:37:500:37:53

Yes, but the point is that Douglas is citing this poll,

0:37:530:37:56

but there's counter evidence to that.

0:37:560:37:58

I just want to make a broader point, that, yes, there are some

0:37:580:38:00

attitudes that I don't agree with, such as homophobia.

0:38:000:38:03

I think that we should be challenging those.

0:38:030:38:05

If you go back to the late 1980s,

0:38:050:38:06

even Margaret Thatcher was saying that children were being taught

0:38:060:38:10

traditional moral values, and were also being

0:38:100:38:13

taught that they had "an inalienable right to be gay",

0:38:130:38:16

and that led to Section 28.

0:38:160:38:18

-The point is, social attitudes do change.

-We've moved on.

0:38:180:38:21

Wait a minute, OK.

0:38:210:38:22

People will make up their own minds about what they're hearing in that

0:38:220:38:27

particular interesting exchange, and, Sam, I've got you in mind.

0:38:270:38:30

I'll move it over here as well. I'm trying my best.

0:38:300:38:33

Linda, what about the attitudes, human rights,

0:38:330:38:37

social attitudes across the world?

0:38:370:38:40

Are we heading... Is it linear?

0:38:400:38:43

Are we all heading in the same direction, do you think?

0:38:430:38:46

I think for a time

0:38:460:38:48

we thought we were heading towards a similar direction.

0:38:480:38:52

If you look at the UN Declaration of Human Rights,

0:38:520:38:54

I think there was quite a move, especially as emerging markets

0:38:540:38:58

integrated, to move into a greater tolerant set of attitudes and

0:38:580:39:02

values, to make sure human rights are respected around the world.

0:39:020:39:08

But, of course,

0:39:080:39:09

I think there are going to be issues around how people adjust to change.

0:39:090:39:15

I've seen it in America, I am both British and American.

0:39:150:39:20

And America has taken 200 year history very, very...

0:39:200:39:24

It is a country with a lot of immigrants that founded the nation.

0:39:240:39:28

But they all seem to tick the same box, don't they, in America?

0:39:280:39:30

Is it different? Because that's multiculturalism, people argue.

0:39:300:39:34

Everyone has their own culture,

0:39:340:39:36

but they have an overarching one which they all buy into.

0:39:360:39:39

But the downside, the negative of multiculturalism,

0:39:390:39:43

as some people would have it, is people coming here

0:39:430:39:45

and then building fortresses around their own culture.

0:39:450:39:48

There's a difference, isn't there?

0:39:480:39:50

There is, we hear "the melting pot of America" quite a lot,

0:39:500:39:53

so the question is, when you go into the melting pot,

0:39:530:39:57

do you melt into the collective, or do you retain...

0:39:570:40:00

-Multiple identity is possible.

-It is.

0:40:000:40:02

I think that's probably why I raised that because I think it

0:40:020:40:05

actually takes... Because America 200 years ago,

0:40:050:40:08

was founded through migration from Britain,

0:40:080:40:12

you have a long period of adjustment with a lot of ups and downs,

0:40:120:40:17

and I am not suggesting at all that America has this solved,

0:40:170:40:20

because we see the problems, but we can also see,

0:40:200:40:23

it has already been mentioned, the 1960s Civil Rights Movement.

0:40:230:40:27

I think there have been steps forward, and steps back, into

0:40:270:40:31

how you can both be a tolerant society,

0:40:310:40:35

and have people believe in something called the American dream,

0:40:350:40:39

for lack of a better way of describing it.

0:40:390:40:41

We get this woolly thing here, "British values",

0:40:410:40:44

nobody quite knows what that is.

0:40:440:40:47

This debate is important because, like I said, it does take time.

0:40:470:40:52

I use America as an example because it is a nation which had to grapple

0:40:520:40:57

with this, from both integrating slaves,

0:40:570:40:59

and through then the early 20th century,

0:40:590:41:02

the migration of Chinese, the later migration of Vietnamese refugees,

0:41:020:41:06

it has had a lot of history in terms of trying to, as I say,

0:41:060:41:11

both assimilate, but allow people to retain their cultural identities.

0:41:110:41:15

There is no easy answer here,

0:41:150:41:17

but the most important thing is to have a dialogue and to make

0:41:170:41:20

sure that what the politicians are doing in terms of institutions

0:41:200:41:23

is bringing people along, and I see this in Europe as well.

0:41:230:41:27

It is a different movement at the moment,

0:41:270:41:30

but the European project is moving towards more political integration,

0:41:300:41:34

and the question we hear there a lot is the democratic deficit,

0:41:340:41:38

have they brought the people along into this new European identity?

0:41:380:41:41

I think, to me, that's why it is great we are having this debate.

0:41:410:41:45

Good. I promised to come to Sam, and I will be over there with Tom,

0:41:450:41:49

and we want to hear from the audience.

0:41:490:41:50

Any thoughts on migration from the audience very quickly?

0:41:500:41:53

-Sam, you have been giving me...

-The reason I am so wound up...

0:41:530:41:56

I'll come to you in a minute,

0:41:560:41:57

but I've got to go to Sam because Sam has been giving me daggers.

0:41:570:42:00

Don't worry, sir, I will be with you.

0:42:000:42:02

The thing that is so important to note here is that the debate we are

0:42:020:42:05

having is not one that reflects what migration actually looks like now.

0:42:050:42:09

The waves of migration Douglas was talking about are over.

0:42:090:42:11

We do not have large-scale immigration from any Muslim

0:42:110:42:14

country into the UK.

0:42:140:42:15

All migrants who come to Britain from outside the EU

0:42:150:42:18

are either on high-skilled visas, or they are students.

0:42:180:42:21

There is virtually no low-skilled immigration into the UK.

0:42:210:42:24

-Except from the European Union.

-So, when we talk about the EU,

0:42:240:42:26

which is where the unskilled labour comes from,

0:42:260:42:29

about half of that comes from Eastern Europe,

0:42:290:42:31

half of that comes from Western Europe,

0:42:310:42:33

most of the countries like Spain and Italy and Portugal and so on.

0:42:330:42:36

That's the debate that we should be having right now.

0:42:360:42:39

That's the kind of migration we can influence now.

0:42:390:42:41

The concerns Douglas is talking about, we should be talking about,

0:42:410:42:43

but that does not reflect what migration is about at the moment.

0:42:430:42:46

I think that's where David's discussion is much more relevant.

0:42:460:42:49

What's really important is to note that migrants from Europe

0:42:490:42:53

are extremely good in terms of paying money into the state

0:42:530:42:57

and not costing a lot to the state.

0:42:570:42:58

They subsidise the rest of us.

0:42:580:43:00

Borrowing is lower, taxes are lower...

0:43:000:43:02

Only the West European ones, Sam,

0:43:020:43:04

not the East and central European ones, that is more or less neutral.

0:43:040:43:07

The French and German bankers do subsidise, the others don't.

0:43:070:43:11

No, that's not the case.

0:43:110:43:13

Look at the famous Christian Dustmann paper...

0:43:130:43:15

Don't get me onto the famous Christian Dustmann paper!

0:43:150:43:19

Don't get me onto that! Carry on.

0:43:190:43:21

The reason that they do that is not because they are magic,

0:43:210:43:23

and the reason that you don't see this huge drag coming in

0:43:230:43:26

is because they're young.

0:43:260:43:27

They're not a burden on the pension system, or on the health system.

0:43:270:43:30

That's what is doing it.

0:43:300:43:32

Those people are like a blood transfusion to the economy,

0:43:320:43:34

-and they are keeping the rest of our taxes low.

-OK, sir, I am so sorry.

0:43:340:43:38

We will have Tom in a second.

0:43:380:43:40

Look at the... Let's return to the global impact of globalisation,

0:43:400:43:45

and I think what's happened is that it has polarised the world.

0:43:450:43:48

We have been divided into rich and poor,

0:43:480:43:51

and that is not just about money, but human resource.

0:43:510:43:54

For example, if you look at...

0:43:540:43:56

We were just listening to American experience.

0:43:560:43:59

America is the biggest culprit.

0:43:590:44:01

It actually sucks the talent from across the world.

0:44:010:44:04

In the process, it leaves the poorer nation poorer.

0:44:040:44:07

But if people want to go there...

0:44:070:44:09

Well, I mean, as individuals, you'll always like to go

0:44:090:44:12

to where there are opportunities, where individuals are better.

0:44:120:44:16

Yes.

0:44:160:44:17

I mean, I migrated from India.

0:44:170:44:19

In the process, India lost a doctor and Britain gained a doctor.

0:44:190:44:23

So the inequality is that we now have seven doctors

0:44:230:44:26

for 10,000 people in India,

0:44:260:44:28

and we have 27 or 23 doctors in the States for 10,000 people.

0:44:280:44:33

So this kind of inequality is the real problem.

0:44:330:44:37

You can't just look at globalisation as an issue for Britain,

0:44:370:44:41

and tolerance or intolerance, but really,

0:44:410:44:43

there are people out there, more than one billion,

0:44:430:44:46

-who are really destitute and are losing out.

-A very good point.

0:44:460:44:50

OK, Tom. Tom, if I may.

0:44:500:44:52

I want to move on and you will all get a chance on this,

0:44:520:44:56

I promise, but it is about how we deal with this challenge,

0:44:560:44:59

the continuing opportunities of globalisation.

0:44:590:45:04

It's capitalism in crisis.

0:45:040:45:07

I don't think it's necessarily the case that it is...

0:45:070:45:09

I think it is in crisis at the moment insofar as I think it's

0:45:090:45:12

a decaying capitalism which is propped up by the state,

0:45:120:45:14

effectively, whether it's through low interest rates,

0:45:140:45:17

things that Sam was talking about earlier,

0:45:170:45:19

dis-incentivise research and development.

0:45:190:45:21

I think one of the big problems is we have a zombie economy,

0:45:210:45:24

which effectively is incapable of generating the kind of

0:45:240:45:27

transformative change and the new technologies

0:45:270:45:29

that we have been talking about.

0:45:290:45:31

I think that, post-Brexit, the thing we have really got to look at

0:45:310:45:34

is the way in which we generate that at home.

0:45:340:45:36

So there's a lot of focus on trade deals,

0:45:360:45:38

and there's a lot of focus on whether it's with the EU,

0:45:380:45:40

or whether it's with other countries internationally,

0:45:400:45:43

and how we can make trade as easy as possible.

0:45:430:45:45

But if you haven't got anything to sell, if you haven't got

0:45:450:45:48

thriving viable industries, that doesn't get you very far.

0:45:480:45:50

The thing I disagree with Sam on is I don't think the private sector

0:45:500:45:54

is capable of generating the kind of research and development we need.

0:45:540:45:57

I think, not only is it hampered in so many ways, but I think it

0:45:570:46:00

has become incredibly risk averse as a consequence of that.

0:46:000:46:04

I think we need to take away the measures which are propping up

0:46:040:46:06

this zombie economy,

0:46:060:46:08

but we also need to put loads and loads of money,

0:46:080:46:11

I think we need to double and then double again the 0.5% of GDP that

0:46:110:46:14

goes into research and development to fund those new industries.

0:46:140:46:17

I think we have got a fantastic opportunity at the moment

0:46:170:46:20

insofar as there's so much that within the European Union actually

0:46:200:46:23

avoided these kinds of innovations,

0:46:230:46:24

the precautionary principle which is enshrined within EU regulations.

0:46:240:46:28

So we're not going to be in that previous phase, "a cork

0:46:280:46:31

bobbing on a rough sea", we're going to be able to navigate this?

0:46:310:46:34

I think so, and it's a case of looking at this, not as a question

0:46:340:46:38

of what are these outside forces that we are subject to?

0:46:380:46:40

There's a lot that we can tackle at home,

0:46:400:46:43

and I think that's what we really need to focus on.

0:46:430:46:45

On one side you have people saying,

0:46:450:46:47

whether it's Donald Trump talking about China as the reason

0:46:470:46:50

that manufacturing has hollowed out in the US is ridiculous, but

0:46:500:46:53

at the same time suggesting that our economic future is entirely reliant

0:46:530:46:56

on our agreement with the rest of the world,

0:46:560:46:58

misses the opportunity we have at home to really boost productivity

0:46:580:47:00

and get a new Industrial Revolution of the ground.

0:47:000:47:03

OK, in how to deal with this, then,

0:47:030:47:04

Katy, I knew it had to start somewhere.

0:47:040:47:07

The top 100 richest entities in the world,

0:47:070:47:11

69 are corporations.

0:47:110:47:13

You know, we are all working for them.

0:47:130:47:16

We are all the slaves of corporations. What do we do?

0:47:160:47:20

Yes, I mean it is the power balance.

0:47:200:47:22

-How do we get them to pay their taxes?

-Well, exactly.

0:47:220:47:25

They are all over the place.

0:47:250:47:26

Exactly, and they know it,

0:47:260:47:27

and they know they have got the bargaining chip.

0:47:270:47:29

We had a really interesting presentation from a guy

0:47:290:47:32

who used to be the finance minister of Rwanda, so Rwanda's

0:47:320:47:35

Chancellor of the Exchequer, and he describes being, you know,

0:47:350:47:38

the finance minister of a country and a corporation -

0:47:380:47:41

they fly in, say, "We'd like to invest in your country.

0:47:410:47:44

"By the way, we don't want to pay any tax,

0:47:440:47:46

"and then we want to pay reduced tax for 10 years.

0:47:460:47:48

"You've got an hour to decide and then we're flying to your neighbour,

0:47:480:47:51

"and they'll say yes, so," you know, "you'd better take the deal."

0:47:510:47:54

It is like a game show!

0:47:540:47:55

You know, it is absolutely that brutal, so we do need...

0:47:550:47:59

It was something Guy said right at the beginning.

0:47:590:48:02

It's not just that we have these economic forces,

0:48:020:48:06

we also have countries being told this is how you do development,

0:48:060:48:10

you must be completely open,

0:48:100:48:12

and it is that kind of logic that we have got to change.

0:48:120:48:15

You have got to see countries willing to club together,

0:48:150:48:17

saying actually, "You know what?

0:48:170:48:19

"We're not going to trade off against each other on our tax rates.

0:48:190:48:22

"We're going to say that as a group of East African countries

0:48:220:48:24

"we can't be played off against each other, we will pay tax."

0:48:240:48:28

But also, the answer is not just with big government.

0:48:280:48:31

We have to tackle corruption, don't we?

0:48:310:48:33

But the answer is also with people,

0:48:330:48:34

with peoples' rights to enter trade unions.

0:48:340:48:37

Take a company like Burger King, all over the world, giving us Whoppers.

0:48:370:48:41

Because they have...

0:48:410:48:43

Politicians give us whoppers!

0:48:430:48:46

For free!

0:48:460:48:48

But, you know, a company like Burger King,

0:48:480:48:51

same business model everywhere, but in Denmark, because of a collective

0:48:510:48:55

bargaining agreement, you get 20 an hour making those burgers.

0:48:550:48:59

In the US it is 8.

0:48:590:49:00

The same company and the same forces can be interacted very differently

0:49:000:49:04

with the policy environment,

0:49:040:49:06

so we've just got to reject this idea it's a force of nature.

0:49:060:49:09

The same with technology.

0:49:090:49:11

I'm sorry, technology is not some force of nature either,

0:49:110:49:14

and governments have a duty to think, "How are we going to interact

0:49:140:49:17

"with this growth of technology and make it work for our people?"

0:49:170:49:21

How are we going to do that? The growth of technology.

0:49:210:49:24

Well, I think every technological revolution leads to people

0:49:240:49:28

saying, "We're going to have mass unemployment."

0:49:280:49:31

Technology today is more advanced than at any time in history,

0:49:310:49:34

and we have many, many more jobs today

0:49:340:49:38

than at any time in history.

0:49:380:49:40

But what I was going to complement this last set of remarks was...

0:49:400:49:45

-From Katy?

-..that in fact... By Katy.

0:49:450:49:46

..is that another elephant that's is in the room, if you like,

0:49:460:49:51

that's Sam's phrase, is that the intellectual property rights

0:49:510:49:55

regime that has been constructed in the last 20 years is that elephant.

0:49:550:50:00

What it's done is it's tripled the number of patents,

0:50:000:50:04

for example, that big corporations are taking out.

0:50:040:50:06

But if you've invented something...

0:50:060:50:08

No, but many of these are not inventions.

0:50:080:50:12

Many of these are the results of numerous people,

0:50:120:50:16

but the big corporations buy up thousands of patents

0:50:160:50:21

and they string them together - it's called hoovering.

0:50:210:50:25

They string them together and they can turn that

0:50:250:50:28

into billions and billions of dollars.

0:50:280:50:30

It is about control. Hoovering, David?

0:50:300:50:32

Wait, let me finish, please.

0:50:320:50:34

The hoovering of patents and copyright

0:50:340:50:38

is actually generating a phenomenal rentier economy,

0:50:380:50:43

where these patents give a monopoly income of 20 years.

0:50:430:50:48

So nobody else can produce that product once it's patented.

0:50:480:50:52

-OK...

-In pharmaceuticals...

-I will come to David.

0:50:520:50:55

Linda, what do you make of this? Hoovering.

0:50:550:50:58

I think the other term is "patent trolls" as well,

0:50:580:51:02

where you patent so that you prevent other people from doing that.

0:51:020:51:06

Moving ahead, what do you do, how do you control this?

0:51:060:51:09

I think every government has a responsibility to make sure

0:51:090:51:13

that what is happening in the economy benefits its people,

0:51:130:51:18

whether it is productivity, whether it is growth, whether it's wages.

0:51:180:51:21

-But no government can control that.

-No, but you can do two things.

0:51:210:51:24

You can take global leadership in making sure that the institutions

0:51:240:51:28

are not dictated to by one powerful country.

0:51:280:51:30

Can I stop you there? What is global leadership?

0:51:300:51:33

Are we expecting politicians to think beyond the electoral cycle?

0:51:330:51:37

Clearly I'm less cynical than you, Nicky!

0:51:370:51:39

What I mean is, so, for instance, on trade,

0:51:390:51:42

we have seen essentially more protectionism

0:51:420:51:44

and people are sort of rolling back, and you can actually, as a nation,

0:51:440:51:48

say we think that opening up markets has been very good

0:51:480:51:52

over the past few decades, but there are problems to deal with.

0:51:520:51:56

In a sense, you tackle the institution.

0:51:560:51:58

Any country. It could be Britain, it could be China,

0:51:580:52:01

it could be any country doing this.

0:52:010:52:03

But I want to probably focus a bit on what countries could do

0:52:030:52:06

within their own nation, which I think is absolutely possible.

0:52:060:52:11

So the debate around how you deal with the fact that trade

0:52:110:52:14

and globalisation tends to benefit the economy as a whole

0:52:140:52:18

and disproportionately some, including corporations.

0:52:180:52:21

But there are always distributional consequences.

0:52:210:52:24

So, with those who are left behind, do you redistribute,

0:52:240:52:28

or do you undertake pre-distribution policies?

0:52:280:52:31

Redistribution is giving somebody help if they lose their job

0:52:310:52:34

because of either technology, automation taking their job,

0:52:340:52:39

or, you know, the country doesn't...

0:52:390:52:42

Pre-distribution - is that the way ahead?

0:52:420:52:44

Pre-distribution is about investing in education and skills

0:52:440:52:47

so you are more flexible to adapt.

0:52:470:52:49

This was the great contract, you know, go back to the 1990s,

0:52:490:52:52

we had this contract, the new Democrats,

0:52:520:52:54

Clinton, new Labour, Blair

0:52:540:52:56

they said accept globalisation and you have no fear - your job may go

0:52:560:53:01

but we'll retrain you for another job.

0:53:010:53:03

The truth is, it really didn't happen,

0:53:030:53:05

and this is one of the reasons why populism has emerged in,

0:53:050:53:08

you know, the early part of the 21st century,

0:53:080:53:11

because people felt that deal was not fulfilled.

0:53:110:53:14

Just pull the camera back, we need a more moderated globalisation,

0:53:140:53:18

with many more national vetoes.

0:53:180:53:20

The nation state is absolutely key here, and we underestimate...

0:53:200:53:23

Is that easier inside or outside Brexit for us?

0:53:230:53:26

I mean, I think in some ways, outside.

0:53:260:53:29

I mean, I was a reluctant Remain.

0:53:290:53:31

I said "outside Brexit", that made no sense at all.

0:53:310:53:34

I meant "with Brexit".

0:53:340:53:36

I was a reluctant Remain, but I do think, I mean, in certain ways...

0:53:360:53:39

Look, we are going to be constrained by global markets,

0:53:390:53:42

whether we are inside the European Union, or outside the EU.

0:53:420:53:45

But we're constrained by the European Union.

0:53:450:53:47

We are one voice amongst 28 when we are inside the European Union,

0:53:470:53:50

so I think we do...

0:53:500:53:51

But just think of the bigger picture of rich countries.

0:53:510:53:53

We have very different kinds of regimes.

0:53:530:53:55

Think of how different Japan is from the United States, from Germany.

0:53:550:54:00

We have the European model, the Japanese model,

0:54:000:54:03

we have a much more laissez-faire, liberal model,

0:54:030:54:06

and yet corporations have to adapt to all of these,

0:54:060:54:09

but we are making corporations the new bogeyman. They are not perfect.

0:54:090:54:13

But we can produce...

0:54:130:54:14

equally wealthy countries with really different regimes.

0:54:140:54:17

The nation state has more power than we think.

0:54:170:54:19

Let Douglas comment, he hasn't spoken for a while.

0:54:190:54:22

The other thing, just quickly, is that corporations and things,

0:54:220:54:25

they are not entities that are impossible to affect.

0:54:250:54:28

I was speaking to somebody from Silicon Valley recently,

0:54:280:54:30

one of the big tech firms there, who was saying, you know,

0:54:300:54:33

the way in which they have developed politically, for instance,

0:54:330:54:36

these are corporations with more money than a lot of countries.

0:54:360:54:39

But the way they've developed and their idea of politics,

0:54:390:54:42

is sort of teenage.

0:54:420:54:43

They've grown so fast that their hands have gone

0:54:430:54:46

a bit faster than their legs have extended and so on.

0:54:460:54:50

These are entities which are profoundly available

0:54:500:54:53

to be influenced by politics, by public sentiment, by public mood.

0:54:530:54:57

They are far more vulnerable to all of these things than we think.

0:54:570:55:00

People power.

0:55:000:55:02

I would like to come back to... The whole point of effective leadership

0:55:020:55:06

that isn't authoritarian and autocratic is to bring people

0:55:060:55:09

along with you and to be seen to support their interests

0:55:090:55:13

and their advancement.

0:55:130:55:14

One of the issues is, I think governments worldwide

0:55:140:55:17

and all the international bodies are just too...

0:55:170:55:20

They're kowtowing to corporations, and, yes, they're very powerful,

0:55:200:55:23

but the fact is that most of the jobs, and a lot of the economic job,

0:55:230:55:27

is still with small businesses and small enterprises.

0:55:270:55:29

That's actually the backbone of the economy.

0:55:290:55:31

If you do want to attract jobs, it's an absolute myth...

0:55:310:55:34

I mean, tax is important, as you were saying,

0:55:340:55:37

but corporations and firms are often calling your bluff

0:55:370:55:41

when they say they'll leave you if you don't reduce tax to this level,

0:55:410:55:44

because what they really care about is an educated,

0:55:440:55:47

healthy workforce, infrastructure which is publicly provided for,

0:55:470:55:50

therefore tax needs to be paid to provide it,

0:55:500:55:53

and political stability,

0:55:530:55:55

and an educated workforce.

0:55:550:55:58

So it's not this ruthless supposed competition of corporations.

0:55:580:56:05

It's actually incredibly heavily subsidised.

0:56:050:56:07

Just to go back, I think if we are to have globalisation

0:56:070:56:11

that people support, I dread to think of a model of globalisation

0:56:110:56:14

where we have free movement of goods and capital,

0:56:140:56:17

without a relatively free movement of people

0:56:170:56:21

because then I think people are going to feel very vulnerable...

0:56:210:56:24

I'll come to you in a minute, Linda.

0:56:240:56:26

But, Guy, the minimum basic income,

0:56:260:56:28

and you must do it in a very short time. One answer.

0:56:280:56:31

We are running out of time.

0:56:310:56:33

A very complex issue we've been working on for 35 years...!

0:56:330:56:37

-I know, but you are a very skilful man.

-Very simple man.

0:56:370:56:40

I think our income distribution system has broken down.

0:56:400:56:43

I don't think our real wages will be rising much in the future

0:56:430:56:47

because of globalisation,

0:56:470:56:49

and I think the incomes going to the rentiers

0:56:490:56:52

and finance will go up and up.

0:56:520:56:54

The precariat, the group I write about, are growing in numbers

0:56:540:56:59

and experiencing growing insecurity, impoverishment and so on.

0:56:590:57:02

A basic income would be part of a new distribution.

0:57:020:57:06

You used the term pre-distribution. I don't feel comfortable with that.

0:57:060:57:10

But I actually believe in a basic income

0:57:100:57:13

for three philosophical reasons.

0:57:130:57:15

Make them quick.

0:57:150:57:17

I understand, I understand I'm under pressure.

0:57:170:57:18

-The first one...

-We're all under pressure, that's globalisation.

0:57:180:57:21

-You're taking up my time!

-You've only got two now!

0:57:210:57:25

-The first is social justice.

-Right.

0:57:250:57:27

I go back to Thomas Paine in that regard,

0:57:270:57:30

saying it's a return on the collective wealth of society.

0:57:300:57:34

Second, I think it would enhance freedom.

0:57:340:57:37

-We all claim we believe in freedom.

-And the third?

0:57:370:57:41

You can't have freedom if you're insecure.

0:57:410:57:43

The third one is that it would give basic security and

0:57:430:57:46

psychologists have shown that if you don't have basic security,

0:57:460:57:50

your mental IQ suffers and those are the philosophical reasons.

0:57:500:57:53

You've got 30 seconds to wrap it up for us, Linda.

0:57:530:57:57

Pre-distribution is a terrible term, but what it really means is

0:57:570:58:02

that the workforce today has to be properly skilled

0:58:020:58:06

with education and training and options, should the economy change.

0:58:060:58:10

In other words, instead of focusing on coming up with money

0:58:100:58:15

after the fact, redistribution, you have to make sure that this country,

0:58:150:58:20

not just the young people,

0:58:200:58:21

but people who have to move into new industries,

0:58:210:58:24

can get access to coding, programming, the internet,

0:58:240:58:27

has enabled them to do better, we must ensure that they can.

0:58:270:58:30

That's pre-distribution.

0:58:300:58:32

Give them all a round of applause. Brilliant.

0:58:320:58:35

As always, the debate continues on Twitter and online.

0:58:350:58:37

Join us next Sunday from London.

0:58:370:58:39

For now, goodbye from everyone in Salford. Thanks for watching.

0:58:390:58:43

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