Six Nations Preview Scrum V

What was yours in 2012? This? Scott Williams! Scott Williams for

Wales! Or maybe this?

George North. A beautiful offload. Jonathan Davies is going to score!

And what about that heart-stopping moment at Twickenham?

Also the score that sealed the Grand Slam?

What a magnificent finish! Plenty of moments to treasure from

last year. Off the they question tonight is, he can the class of

2013 do it again? I am joined by Jonathan Davies, Jeremy Guscott and

Martyn Williams. We have leapt Wyn Jones loose with a laptop. He

offers his thoughts on how Wales can recover their no-show.

Kingsley-Jones runs the rule over Ireland. We assess an England side

still basking in the glory of that victory over the All Blacks.

Hopefully we can kick off to a good start.

Lions legend of Jeremy Guscott tells us who is in pole position to

make the trip down under. But for now it is all about rugby's

biggest annual tournament. We were at the Six Nations launch as the

teams feared up for battle. Six-nation holders, grand-slam

winners, and we are not going to give up without a fight. It is a

great situation to be in it. The added pressure is quite nice in a

way. For us it is important to continue

at improving but you get a result. If you get a positive result, it is

The Six Nations is what everyone was raised on. It is an exciting

tournament. It is cracking. As you can sense from that, plenty

of excitement, and a most impartial observers picked France as their

favourites. Art they your favourites? They start most Six

Nations as favourites, the quality and strength of this one, but it

all depends if they turn up on the day. Justifiably so, they are

favourites, but this year I think he will be very close with everyone.

If Ireland win their first game, they have got England and France at

home so they could be contenders. It is the old cliche about France,

which side will Turner, but under Philipe Saint-Andre, they do look a

bit more organised. If you look at the autumn internationals, they

were the most consistent. They dispatched Australia as if they

went there. It was so convincing. It was very controlled, very

organised, and reminiscent of their club teams. They have got the power

and the backs to score the tries. They look incredibly strong.

backed France a few weeks ago and it is difficult to change your mind.

They have had a few injuries and they probably have a short of

preparation time off because all their players played last week.

Like Jonathan said, the first game between Wales and Ireland, whoever

wins that, France have got to go to Dublin, so I would say France at

the moment but that game is going to be crucial. Frederic Michalak is

key because he either plays brilliantly or he's rubbish. There

is no in-between and he is not playing stand-off for his Claire.

He is playing scrum-half. It has been a strange and confusing years

Wales. From the euphoria of the Grand Slam last year to the despair

of the first ever autumn whitewash. Gwyn Jones has been crunching the

numbers and trying to figure out what has gone wrong.

In international rugby, if the statistics show that 80 % of

matches are won by their team's that score the most tries.

Attacking line-outs often mean tries and tries mean winning. A

third of all other tries come from turnovers. Only rarely are tries

scored from a scrum or face play. Line and and turnovers second force

-- 70 % of all tries scored. When Wales got this right, they won a

Grand Slam. When they got it wrong, they lost every game in the autumn.

This is my money ball Theory. During the Grand Slam, Wales did

everything they could to stop teams getting dangerous attacking line-

outs. George and off you certain and when it Leigh Halfpenny gets it,

runs. Eventually he gains a enough ground for the offload, allowing

Wales to reorganise and set up the infield kick and chase. Even in

extreme cases against England, Wales ignores the safety of the

touchline and Mike Phillips uses his strength and power to allow for

the heavy mob to arrive. And then a sector for the kick and chase. In

the autumn, Wales just gave away line-outs under no pressure. It was

a change of tactics that just did not work. What also helped in the

grand slam was that teams were so scared of the counter attacking off

George North, Leigh Halfpenny and Alex Cuthbert, if they kick to

touch to avoid these threats. But Wales 14 tries from line-out and

not one from a counter-attack. Dan Lydiate's infamous tackle

immediately isolated players, or creating the possibility of a

turnover. Off the forwards smell blood and henceforth the ball.

Thought -- if turnover is in the opposition half means tries. This

was the only try of the game and won us the Grand Slam. We miss Dan

Lydiate when he is not there. The list worked brilliantly for Wales

last year. Jonathan Davies was Wales's Exocet missile, or locking

on to his target with devastating effect. You must read the play and

then commit wholeheartedly. He is a game Changer, turning defence into

attack, and least of penalties. However, it became a weakness in

the autumn. Alex Cuthbert did not go there with any conviction. Even

Jonathan Davies had lost his no- show has he misreads the clay and

leaves its toll for Australia behind him. Scrums are important

because 40 % of scrums now end in a penalty. With Adam Jones, we get a

penalty for star without him, we don't. In the second half, Wales

are outscored their opponents in attack and defence. When it came

down to the wire, Wales had the edge. We were the comeback kings.

But by the autumn, the cry of chamber had lost its chill. Wales

gave up the lead in a free of the four matches. When fatigue sets in,

he tries are scored and games and championships are won and lost.

Jeremy, as a neutral observer, sort of, what have you made of Wales's

reasons live? I have always believed they have the talent,

particularly the back line, and they are world class. If you look

at the performance of the Grand Slam, even though they lost on the

summer tour in Australia, the performances were great. They have

got the talent, they just lack the belief. Living in Wales, if people

outside of Wales don't realise what sort of pressure they are under. In

England, football dominates. You have got Swansea in the Premiership

and Cardiff are doing well, if there rugby seems to be the

goldfish bowl. What has happened to Rhys Priestland, his confidence has

gone down. He needed some the outside him and inside him to bring

him up. Mike Phillips has been a wave. Jamie Roberts has been

injured. That environment is changing continually and it is not

seem to be a main Voyce. Sam Warburton has been criticised.

There has been a lot of unanswered questions. The only way they can be

answered is by putting in a good performance. They have to believe

they are no worse than last season. If they have not become a bad side

overnight. Is it still a mental problem? I just think the defeats

in Australia, they are against they should have won it. They were the

better side in all three Tests. On the back of those three, they

started in the first game in the autumn and then confidence,

momentum goes. If their confidence comes that, and that is why we have

all mention the first game, it is absolutely massive. If they win

that, who knows what he can achieve again? They have got the Gallagher

of player to read everyone. But if they lose it, then you go to France,

then you go to Italy and Scotland, and people expect them to win those

games, if there was no confidence it is very difficult. They know

they have got themselves into this position but now they have got to

get themselves out of it. Robert Howley is in Sole charge now. He

appeared in quite confident move. There is no Warren Gatland in the

background of any more. Will that change things in terms of the

dynamics? It will change the dynamic with the coaching team. He

is very hands-on. He is going to have to take a backward step. Mark

Jones has been brought in to take on the back line and that is it a

step as well. The Scarlets have got a decent back line but this is

another step there. It will change the dynamic of the whole coaching

system. You hustle got Neil Jenkins and Robin McBryde. I think he has

been unlucky. Warren Gatland was injured and he took over. The

autumn was scrappy, was he there? Wasn't he there? Even if Warren

Gatland was there, I still think we would have lost. We were called

against Argentina. I think he needs to be given his time in the Six

Nations. When Warren Gatland was absent through his injuries and for

the Lions, you really need your leaders to really stepper and clay.

Maybe they went missing a little bit. In the Six Nations, you need

Adam Jones, Sam Warburton, Toby Faletau. All these guys who have

performed in the Six Nations, they are big-name players. Leigh

Halfpenny comic Jamie Roberts. Leigh Halfpenny and the Toby

Faletau were the only ones who really played well in the autumn.

All the regions have not been playing well. If you look at the

starting 15 against Ireland, they are all in good form. I have spoken

to a few of them and they are in good confidence. So as long as the

individuals are on form, is that all that matters? For eight is

difficult. If you are playing for a side that is struggling, it does

affect morale. When you play for Wales, you get away from it. The

one thing I would like to see, when everyone is down and confidence is

low, you have got to the focal. Everyone goes quiet and you don't

want that. You need guys screaming at each other. It is a steep

learning curve that it is a young squad. Most of them have ever known

success. The World Cup and the Grand Slam. As tough as it was in

the autumn, I think they would have learned a lot and it will stand

them in good stead in this competition.

We will have a closer look at Ireland in a moment. But we start

on Friday when Wales U20s travel north and it is also a big week for

There was this guy, yes, a working- class kid from the middle of

nowhere. His ambition was to play for Wales but people were always

doing him down, saying it was not possible. You cannot do it. You are

too small. You do not fit the plan, the profile. Excuse after excuse.

Well, in 2000 and it, this guy won his second Grand Slam and became

the first Welshman to beat crowned world player of the year. -- in

2008. I could go on and on. The point is that he made up his own

plan and he did it in spite of them. To achieve that, it has to matter.

You have to make every training session count. Make every sprint

cap, every push up, every drill, every repetition. If it does not

hurt, you do not feel it. If you do not feel it, there is no point.

When your lungs are screaming for and your legs are turning to jelly

and your vision is blurred, what do you do? You go again. And again and

again. Because it matters. Every scrum, every tackle, at every pass,

every line broke. But because it matters. In case you were wondering,

that was not Chuck D from Public enemy! We are up North on Friday.

Then the highlights for the Wales women on Scrum V next week.

Last year, the team that came closest to this rolling Wales was

England. It could have been at them lifting the Holy Grail at the end

of the championship. What sort of shape of in ahead of the tournament

this year? -- are they in? This is what England did to the

world champions two months ago. The All Blacks had not tasted defeat

for 20 matches. They are as close to invincible as you can get. But

England refused to believe the hype and with that emphatic victory they

went from Six Nations contenders to Six Nations favourites in the space

of 80 minutes. It counts a lot to beat New Zealand in lots of ways,

in terms of belief, mine set for the players, confidence and all of

that. -- mind that. Equally it counts for nothing because every

Six Nations game is a game in itself. I think the form book goes

out of the window to a certain extent. We have to take confidence

from that game but also hit the ground running at Scotland. It is a

great position to be in and it is very different to this time last

year when we went into a tournament. The coaches and the players did not

know what to expect and there was not really that pressure. Now we

are in a different situation of the back of that victory. We are going

into this campaign with a team with more experience. The guys that had

the 0 caps now have 12 or 13. We have played the majority of the

best teams in the world. We can get off to a good start, had fully.

year ago, English robbery had threatened to self-destruct

following a disastrous World Cup. - - English rugby. In the last 12

months, the Red Rose has bloomed once more. I think that is credit

to the coaches and the other players. Players can come in and

feel comfortable to go and express themselves. It is always an

intimidating place, an international set-up, for a new

player. For players to come in and feel relaxed and play their own

game, that is what you want and I think they have done a great job.

Creating the right environment is important to Stuart Lancaster, a

former schoolteacher. So is bigging outside of the box, or in this case,

outside of rugby. Tell me one big thing that you do. You are always

looking to motivate and inspire the players and remind them of the

privilege of playing for England. We have two guest speakers coming

in. Andrew Strauss is one, and he can talk about England's Cricket

journey, and also Jessica Ellis's coach. -- Jessica Ellis. And trying

to get somebody to pick up the right time and deal with a home

Olympics. England's Leger reads as follows. Played 12, won 6, drawn

one. A 50% win rate. Those defeats were against three of the southern

hemisphere's superpowers and Wales, the only northern hemisphere team

to have beaten England Under Lancaster. The trajectories of

Wales and England may be moving in opposite directions at the moment

but they are on a collision course for the end of the championship.

finish in Cardiff, I have never been there, to be honest. I am

looking forward to going to the Millennium Stadium. It would be a

great crescendo. There will be ups and downs all of the tombs along

the way. -- for all of the teams. You have met Gerry Lancaster. How

has he turned the teams around? Results, not brilliant. Knocked out

of this world. But he is a good organiser, a good planner, and he

thinks deeply. What he makes up for in his lack of experience in

coaching, is his selection of people to do the job. Andy

Farrell's name was not mentioned and he is huge in the England

organisation and for good reason. You do not just love somebody

because they have got the good name. Man of Steel, fantastic rugby

league player, it is what he says. You have to believe what somebody

tells you. That is what coaching at the highest level is about. You

cannot teach them to pass and tackle. You have to inspire them

and get them to believe. Andy Farrell has a knack of getting to

connect with the players at this level and Lancaster spotted that

inspiration and brought him in. Rowntree has great credentials and

they work on the skills, but in his captain, me included, people were

wondering what he was doing in the team. But he has a quiet strength

and confidence and that it defies Lancaster and the squat. There are

no superstars in that side. -- that defines Lancaster and the squad.

Talking about inspirational and organisational stuff. Lancaster was

talking about guest speakers. How important is that the stuff outside

of rugby? I think it is invaluable. It can be an intense environment.

We listen to the same voices 24/7. When you bring in to the camp

somebody from the outside, it is inspirational. It is good to hear

from people outside of rugby and it set in stone what it is all about.

It is bigger than you. Sports psychologists, some players like it

and some do not need it. One thing about England, they are in a good

place. They are happy, coming off the back of a tremendous win

against New Zealand. But they lost again to Australia when they should

have beaten them. Again, they have got a great start because they are

playing Scotland at her and I don't think Scotland will not go well. --

Scotland at home. They have some very good players. Whether that

result was that good, they will have to back it up. You cannot

underestimate the feeling one those boys will have beaten New Zealand

and gone away. When they turn up in the cap, the feel-good factor will

be huge. Like pasta will bring that back down because you have to

remind them that New Zealand was eight weeks ago. -- Lancaster will

bring that down. They were not expected to beat the All Blacks and

now a 2000 at Twickenham will expect them to beat Scotland.

a few days until the Six Nations After Wales's opening match against

Ireland, they are on the road for three games in a row, facing

everybody away from home. It was a similar story back in 2005, and you

do not need me to remind you that Wales won the Grand Slam. We have

been assessing how we have fared against the Blues in all that time.

The Blues have been the blue tit team in recent years. They won

Grand Slam in 2010. But France's only blip came last year when the

4th place was their only finish outside the top three since the

turn of the century. But since then, Andre has brought stability to

their performance. They beat Samoa, Argentina and Australia. This class

when they get it right. They have some great players from Clermont

and Toulon. One cautionary note, since that win in 2005, Wales have

drawn a complete blank in Paris. Even though they are moving to a

new home in the study and a bigger this year, it has been the same old

same old for the Italians. Only once have they managed to finish

out of the bottom two by recording two wins in a season. They came

against Wales and Scotland. Italy have recorded all of their Six

Nations wins against them, except from one famous victory against

France in 2011. Once again, the Italian hopes will be carried on

the broad shoulders of their one Scotland have suffered the most

dramatic turnaround of anyone over recent months. After a clean sweep

from their summer tour including a win in Australia, three autumn

defeats, the last recently, was enough for Robinson to call it a

draw. Stepping out of the shadows, his number two, a very well-known

figure in Wales. Latterly with the Ospreys, then previously as part of

the coaching team that delivered that long awaited Grand Slam in

2005. But despite the history, there have been no divided

loyalties. There is respect and it is a privilege to play with the

Welsh boys. The fact is that my loyalties lie with the Scottish

boys and I want to see them perform. Nothing is better than seeing

Scotland win. Scotland's Six Nations record is almost identical

to Italy's. Stuck in the bottom two and asked half a dozen campaigns.

The only time Wales have lost, home or away in seven encounters, it

took seven penalties from Chris Paterson in 2007. Given Wales's

excellent recent record against the Scots, losing to their former coach

Scott Johnson in the blue of Scotland now. He threatened to wear

a kilt at the Six Nations launch. You have played with him and worked

under him. Is he the man for the job? Scotland have struggled in the

past with their attack. I can only speak from experience. He was the

most attacking coach that I have ever worked with. It is difficult

being a number two rather than a number one, so it will be

interesting to see how he get along. It is a different coaching team.

Scotland potentially could be a banana-skin for Wales, in Edinburgh,

definitely. We were talking about Scotland having a good pack, which

will make a difference. Yes, he is very straight down the line, an ex

army guy. It is a pretty much one- way conversation. He tells you, you

do it. If you do something different, then you run around and

you do some press ups. He is tough on the discipline. He will have

that kind of respect from players who have watched him. He

understands the game. It will be hard for a Scotsman to listen to an

Englishman, giving coaching advice on how to beat England. It all

seems peculiar to me. I am sure he will do a decent job. He is any

there for 12 weeks and they have to get their heads around that as well.

So Gotland play a pressurised game. Their defence is good but they do

not create enough. -- Scotland play a pressurised game. Unfortunately

they have not got the 12-10 axis that creates a lot and that is

their Achilles heel. Let's get back to Wales and the opener against

Ireland. Kingsley Jones has compiled a detailed dossier on the

men in green. Wales's opening game against

Ireland is massive and could make or break either team's tournament.

Ireland's talisman Brian O'Driscoll is back but the captaincy has gone

to Jamie. Will he be able to cope with the pressure? This is him at

his devastating best. Low body position, strong tackle, winning

yards for his team. Not only is he a battering ram, he plays his first

receiver, creating space for the people behind him. Can Wales target

him? Yes. He likes to carry high and free his hands in the tackle.

That leaves him to say that -- susceptible to turnovers. Wrap him

up, stop him getting the ball away, and he can give penalties away.

Healey often turns a slow ball into quick ball. He gets the team to go

forward. Around the fringes, nice and a low, pick and go, valuable

yards around the edges. Buddy can carry the ball like Brian

O'Driscoll. Can you target him? Yes. He likes to play too much and he

will run off on his own and get himself isolated and give penalties

Wales can target the scrum. Mike Ross has been a big player in

recent seasons. There is a lot of pressure in this scrum. And if the

replacement has not played on the right side as much as last season

there look what happened then. This really took the momentum out of

Ireland a's game and cause them problems on the day. This is

something Wales must target. And lastly we look at the half backs.

Murray is a threat, a big strong player, but is he technically that

good? He often less his team down with his kicking game. His kicks

can be flat, allowing counter- attacking opportunities, putting

his team under pressure. If I was Alex Cuthbert Fort George North, I

But don't forget, Brian O'Driscoll is back. He can be defenders for

fun, he creates space for others, and is one of the best defenders in

the tournament. And he is the most experienced player in the Six

Nations. Brian O'Driscoll is back. He is not

catch him though. You spent the day with him yesterday. Does he feel

aggrieved? He is a top bloke. He's not going to be around much longer

and he said he's disappointed because he is a proud Irishmen. He

was injured in the autumn and Jamie Heaslip did a good job, so

naturally disappointed, but he will still be like a leader on the field

anyway. He's that type of bloke. But he's really looking forward to

this because he has only played a few games. He is really fresh and

this could be his last Six Nations. I want to talk about the Wales

injury situation. A bit of a crisis in the second row. That aside, are

there many selection dilemmas? back row is an issue with Dan

Lydiate being out. Are they going to go with Sam Warburton and Justin

Tipuric together? I think they should. I think Justin Tipuric is

the best player in Wales at the moment. If you look at the way Sam

Warburton tackles, he is very similar to Dan Lydiate. In the

second row, if Ian Evans is fit, I would put him straight back in

because I think he is that important. Apart from that, if the

back line more or less picks itself. I think they will go with Dan

Biggar. He has got a few issues, particularly in the pack. I think

Number 10 will be interesting. He will definitely go with Dan Biggar

because he has been the form player if they can he bring that regional

form to the international stage. He is a confidence player. With James

Hook, you don't know what he's going to bring. Does he control the

game? But it has been unfair because he has been flown in

sometimes. You know what Dan Biggar can do for you so you could start

with him. Or you could say, let's give James Hook a run, see how he

goes, and if he is not controlling it, then bringing damn. -- -- then

a bringing Dan Biggar. If I wanted to win I would probably go with it

Dan Biggar. International rugby is about consistency and stability.

You have got to go for Dan Biggar. But he has got to run it. What he

does for the Ospreys, or bring the centres in, good kicking, and let

him run it. Don't let Mike Phillips boss it. And bring Jamie Roberts

and Jonathan Davies enter the game. Those guys charging down the middle

against anybody is going to be causing problems. Against Ireland

last year, they could not handle Jamie Roberts and George North.

Play the game in the Irish territory. And Dan Biggar is very

vocal and he has got to come onto this stage and say, I am in charge.

He has got a Ossett, as he does for the Ospreys. That is what he did

not do last time. It is very difficult though.

We will talk about the Lions in a minute but 40 years ago today, the

greatest try ever seen was caught just down the road. It has never

seen so past and we have never It is just nice to be able to

recollect it. It just gives you a special thrill to think that you

will still want you to talk about it. Really, you can't put a value

on that so it is not what it is worth, it is what it has given us

for the last 40 years. That is a That is brilliant! John Williams.

Brian Williams. A great dummy. David. The halfway line. Brilliant

by Quinnell. This is Gareth Edwards. A dramatic start. What a score!

This Six Nations this critical for those hoping to make on the playing

for for the Lions tour. Every week we will be inviting a tended game

to take a Lions starting 15. Jeremy Guscott is the first.

The first selector his Jeremy Guscott. Before you start moaning

that Jeremy could not pick a pair of matching socks. This is the

trickiest selection, taking 18 the for the Six Nations has started. No

Alex Cuthbert end of a free and Leigh Halfpenny out of position.

Despite being a silky skills merchant, he has gone for two big

Jonathan Sexton at Number Ten. Mike Phillips will be slightly about

being left out. Dan Lydiate is in the back row, but his and Sam

Warburton bread to be captain? Alun-Wyn Jones has done it all

before in the boiler house. No doubt in the front row. The best,

the best and the best. For English, five Irish and six Welsh. Thank you

Phil Bennett will be making his choice next week. Jeremy, you had

endear yourself to the Welsh audience. I knew where I was coming.

Sam Warburton is missing there Dan Lydiate is in. Robshaw has not

shown that he can compete at the highest level with the best players.

He has shown great leadership qualities also. Sam Warburton is

pretty much the same. On form, the word he does is probably more

collective. We have seen Sam Warburton make match-saving tackles.

The one he made on Manu Tuilagi last year was phenomenal. But we

need to see more of that. I agree with league macro at number six and

number 8 but the number seven is very contentious. Warren Gatland

has gone on record as saying you need an out and out seven. Robshaw

is a fantastic player and a great leader but I still question whether

he is again absent out seven. He will be interesting if Justin

Tipuric does play seven and plays really well for Wales. The players

all public be downplayed talk of the Lions but it is going to be the

backdrop of this Six Nations. I interviewed Brian O'Driscoll, he

said that every a Lions tour, Ireland have played well and they

get a lot of players on the tour. That will be at the back of their

minds. Last year, if you are picking the Lions on last season,

all of the Welsh players would go. Now, if they don't get the results,

will Warren Gatland the the Welsh boys? He is a huge season for

everyone. I think it is going to be really close and the start is very

important. To get that momentum and confidence than you are not chasing

the competition then. He is not get easier. If you get injuries.

have got very little time left but I am going to come see you for a

prediction. Wales against Ireland? Wales, like last year, three or

four points. Ireland, only because you said Wales. I think Ireland

going as favourites. That is all from us. Thank you for watching.

Just five days until Wales play Ireland. We thought we would leave

you with the thoughts of Eddie Off we go again, this is our thing.

We don't win the World Cups, we don't win summer tours, autumn

series, no, but this what we do. There is no time to stop, no time

to pause even, because to have caused is to doubt. And to doubt is

out. So we marched to be on the move, to be on the move is to

escape the shadows that haunt us. There are always demons in Wales.

For it is all going horribly wrong for Wales. So we marched like

pilgrims passed away shrines. St Alexander the Great. Can we do it