Will It Snow?


Will It Snow?

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It's the first week of November, and we have climbed up above the

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village of Braemar in the Scottish Highlands. We are at about 1300

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feet, it seemed a good place to join the conversation that's

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already gearing up around the country, on what sort of winter we

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might have in store. Why are we here? As well as being incredibly

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blustery, Braemar holds the record for the lowest temperature ever

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recorded in the UK, a minus 27.2 degrees Celsius. Where better to

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ask are we heading for another big freeze. We will be looking at the

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latest science and cutting edge weather forecast. What about our

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airports, our supermarkets, energy suppliers and health service. Do

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they think they have another hard winter coming. And most importantly,

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are they prepared for it? Over the next hour, what we seek to answer

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is really just one simple question, Remember this? Motorists gridlocked

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on icey roads, trains stranded, and thousands of flights cancelled.

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Across the UK, we did battle with the wrong type of snow, killer ice,

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and an estimated cost to the economy of over �200 million per

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day in transport disruption alone. December was the coldest month for

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over a century.With the mild weather across the UK today, it is

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hard to cast our minds back to just nine months ago, when we emerged

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from what journalists dubbed, "Snomageddon". Look at that, the

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very first snow of the British winter, I knew we had come to the

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right place, and this is Alex Hill, at the frontline of Scottish

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meteorology for how many years? When you see snow like that, is

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this a science that winter is well and truly on its way. Is this the

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first snow of the year? The first snow was a few weeks back, it is

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all gone, apart from the little patch we saw there. We had a cold

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northerly for a while, very heavy showers, that ploanks a few

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centimeters of snow - plonks a few centimeters of snow around the

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place. What are we looking at? the next few weeks and days the

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chances of snow are very, very small. In your 37 years of

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experience, had you seen winters like the ones that we have had the

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last couple of years? I think that is the curiosity, everybody got

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into a kind of paddy about it, and yes, I think 2010/11 was a

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particularly chilly winter, but it lasted just for November and

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December. By the time you were into January and February, the

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temperatures were getting milder and milder. Has it been an exciting

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time for meteorologist? Exciting, certainly, yes, stressful,

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certainly. But it makes people realise, perhaps, that weather has

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much more impact than you imagine on your day-to-day life.

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The Met Office has one of its 450 weather stations up here at Braemar.

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They know from bitter experience, it is not too early to be on snow

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alert. So what has been making our winters so unseasonably cold

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recently. Can we blame a particular type of weather system. Can

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scientists predict how much snow is going to small? And what about the

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forecasters, can we rely on them to see another big freeze heading our

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way? I have to say, it is quite a relief

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to sit down. We have been tearing around the country for the last

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week, trying to establish whether we have got another truly horrible

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winter heading our way. It does seem a little bit ridiculous. We

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are just emerging from the warmest October on record. We are at the

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BBC headquarters in Glasgow, and look, we have an open roof above us.

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It is not exactly sunny, but it is actually quite warm. Do you think

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we are all getting into a bit of a panic about nothing? It is

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unseasonably warm, but this is a conversation we do love to have in

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the UK. I think it is a scientific question, the headlines have

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already started. This is one from one newspaper that Britain faces an

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early big freeze. Science should be able to answer that question,

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already, earlier this week in the US there was a monster snowfall,

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and we did see the type of chaos we saw last year, with airports being

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closed down. People are even saying could we be entering into a mini-

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Ice Age. The thing is, we have got all this technology at our

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fingertips, satellites in the sky, data pouring in, surely science

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should be able to tell us whether or not it will snow? Climate

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science is an enormous field. There is a bewildering amount of data out

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there. What I want to find out is what are the limits of that science.

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How much can the data actually tell us about what the weather will do

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in the next few weeks. Let's also not forget that there was a time,

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when we didn't have satellites, we didn't have all this technology at

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our fingertips. Can the natural world actually give us any sort of

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clue as to what sort of winter we are going to have? Later in the

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programme, Alys Fowler is going to be investigating that for us. She's

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heading out into the countryside to see what the natural world might or

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might not be able to tell us about the coming winter. But our

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investigation started right at the frontline of meteorology, down

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south. Britain's weather is volatile and

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ever-changing, and we are famously obsessed with it. The people who do

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daily battle with our unpredictable weather, and indeed with our

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expectations, work here. At the Met Office headquarters. The Met Office

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works around the clock, 365 days a year. Providing forecast data for

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over 300 locations in the UK. But predicting the weather is a

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trickery business, involving superxuet computers, expert

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meteorologist, and data collected from all over the planet, including

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the deep ocean and outer space. If you have all these thousands and

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thousands of observations coming in, you have got all these computers

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and computer models doing all this work, and all these specialists

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here, why is it so difficult to get a forecast absolutely accurate?

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is difficult, but we have successes as well. You have got to remember

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last winter the snow forecast for the shert period were excellently

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forecast. We had the Heathrow forecast, we do very well. There

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are some difficulty in forecasting the weather. As we head into winter

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there is a lot at stake. Farmers risk loss of livestock, local

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authorities need to know when to grit the roads, and any of us

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wanting to travel are desperate to know what's in store.

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But the truth is, predicting the weather day by day is still the

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only way to promise accuracy. This model is created by your

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supercomputer, from all those millions of observations that are

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coming in from around the globe? That is absolutely right. It shows

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band of rain coming across Ireland. When the forecasters, the chief

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forecaster, one of his jobs is to check out the reliability of that

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forecast. As you can see here, around about the same time, this is

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actual rainfall over Ireland. So the front, coming in from the west,

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the model prediction and the actual position of the rain on the radar

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is actually fairly good. We know categorically what is happening now,

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how about what's going to happen tomorrow, how do you then use that

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information? Absolutely right. We have to know what's happening now,

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whether the model is exactly correct before making a prediction.

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Once we know what's happening now through the Oakss, the models and

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looking at everything, we can make a more confident statement about

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what will happen tomorrow. Over the coming weeks, what will you be

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looking for to tell you that it is going to snow? One of the most

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important things is to look at the temperature of the air mass. It is

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not just the, believe it or not, it is not just the temperature of the

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air mass, it is the dryness, as that rainfalls into dry air, it

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cools the air by a thing called evapive cooling. This is two very

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important factor whrs it will be rain or snow. Despite a

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supercomputer performing a billion calculation per second, predicting

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whether it will snow, even as far ahead as this coming weeks, is

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pushing the limits of what they can say with confidence. At this point,

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could you say, hand on heart, whether it will snow this winter?

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It will snow somewhere in the British Isles this winter. Anyone

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who turns around and says in the 25th of December, which happens to

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be Christmas day, it will snow, is, quit he frankly a fool.The

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Office does look further ahead. Adam leads a team that looks both

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at seasonal prediction and how climate on a long-term and global

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scale affects the weather we experience in the UK.

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Why is it so hard to make an accurate long-term forecast?

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reason is we live in the mid- latitudes where there are lots of

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storms and vairability. This is part of the reason why British

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people are so obsessed with the weather and like to criticise

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weather forecasters also at times. Why is it so difficult to nail your

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flag to the mast asay it will snow in February? - and say it will snow

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in February? Because, basically, atmospheric chaos is a real

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phenomenon. The old adage that the butterfly flaps its wings and sets

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off a storm in the rest of the world, a small thing today could

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change the detail in the outcome, you can't nail your flag to the

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mast and be deterministic and specific.

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Most people know that Britain is warming than it should be for its

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latitude, that is thanks to two things. The first is thermohaline

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circulation, or THC, a massive movement of water in the oceans

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around the world. But some people have raised concerns that the

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melting of the northern icecap could affect the THC, and maybe

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even shut it down. And this would make our weather significantly

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colder. Research continues. But the second and best understood governor

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of our winter weather here in Britain, is, of course, the

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jetstream, which feedz us with warm, moist air, from the west. But it is

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an unpredictable beast, and sometimes gets snoked off course.

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Just a single air current - knocked off course. A single air current

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from Siberia can be enough to disrupt the air stream's warming

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influence. Meteorologists call this a blocking pattern, and such a

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weather system was responsible for last year's big freeze. It is clear,

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even with thousands of bits of data, coming in every day, from every

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corner of the globe, it is really difficult to forecast when snow

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might fall here in the UK. But before they can worry about

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predicting when snow will fall, scientists have to understand how

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it is made. The big question for me is what

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triggers is a huge snowfall. - triggers a huge snowfall. We snow

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snow is made inside clouds like rain. But know is not just frozen

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rain. What is it then? I'm hoping the Centre for

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Atmospheric Science, here at the University of Manchester will have

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some answers for me. The biggest problem in predicting snowfall is

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that whilst we know if it is going to snow, we have no real idea what

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type of snow is coming, and how fast it is going to fall.

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High in the clouds, there are millions of tiny supercold water

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droplets, to make snow, first you need some of these droplets to

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evaporate into water vapour. This vapour then drifts through the

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cloud until it makes contact with something, maybe a speck of dust,

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or some other bit of matter that triggers the water vapour molecules

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into forming ice crystals. This process is called seeding. When ice

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crystals clump together, they can make a snowflake.

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But what scientists haven't been able to work out is just how much

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snow a cloud will produce. Inside there is a piece of kit which is

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set to change that. This cylinder replicates the conditions needed to

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make snow. It can literally conjure a flurry of snow out of thin air.

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Well, technically, out of supercooled clouds. This is a cloud

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chamber, this is where you make clouds here in the basement, how

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does it actually work? It spans three floors of this building. And

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we make clouds using this giant kettle, the steam travels up this

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pipe into the cloud chamber, and contenses to form water droplets,

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later on we can nucleate this cloud and seed it and make it into ice.

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They make it look simple, but don't be fooled. It has taken years of

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research to take what happens in nature high up in the atmosphere.

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You can get straight snow out of there. That has fallen from the 10m

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height, from ice crystals and lands as snow. That is exactly it.

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But what is seeding, exactly? And how does it create the ice crystals

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you need to make snow. We know that pure water freezes at zero degrees

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Celsius, but the water in these test-tubes is 11 degrees below zero

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and yet it is still liquid. For ice crystals to form, the supercooled

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water needs to latch on to something around which it can grow.

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In this case it is a single ice crystal that triggers the chain

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reaction of lots more being able to form. Another more dramatic example

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uses a supercooled bubble of soppy water, and a tiny bit of ice

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hitting it, crystals rapidly appear. But it is what happens to these

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tiny crystals after they have formed that determines if it is

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going to snow. And how much snow will fall. Paul is working on what

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he hopes will be a new way to predict snowfall more accurately.

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These are the crystals being formed inside the cloud chamber, what are

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we actually looking at? We are looking at the different ice

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crystals that have fallen out. At this temperature, minus 15, they

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are all the same type of ice crystal, the six-pointed shape, hex

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ago national plates. Some of them, more than one ice crystal, stuck

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together, there is two there on that one. This is two crystals that

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have clumped together? That's right. That is the beginning of the

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formation of a snowflake? Basically. What actually determines whether a

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snowflake is going to fall? simply, it is to do with its weight,

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and how much area it takes up, because the area determines the air

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resistance. Some snowflakes have large surface area, not much mass

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and fall very slowly. Some snowflakes are the opposite and

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small much quicker. This is how you work out what are the conditions,

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in a cloud, that determine whether it will snow or not? That's right,

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:17:11.:17:12.

it happens at different rates and different temperatures. It is early

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days for this study. But it could lead to weather forecasters being

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able to accurately predict snowfall. And that could help prevent the

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kind of chaos that sees airports close and motorists stuck in

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snowdrifts. Last winter may have felt very long

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and very cold. But it wasn't the hardest winter that Britain has

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experienced in recent times. Some of you may remember 1963, the worst

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winter in living memory. The snow started on Boxing Day, and

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the big freeze lasted until March. Thousands of miles of roads,

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throughout Britain, became impassable. Milk froze, water pipes

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cracked, and fresh water had to be rationed.

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Tanks were set up in the street, but even they froze up, and you

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needed hot water to thaw out the tap to get cold water to make hot

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water with. The cause, pretty much the same kind of Siberian weather

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that hit us last year. On December 21st, this Siberian anticyclone

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started to move in our direction. But the west Atlantic winds that

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usually keep it at bay, suddenly weakened, and the Siberian

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anticyclone moved right across to us. By December 22nd, it had hit us,

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it was here, and the big freeze had begun.

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The second blow, hundreds of towns and villages were cut off. For some,

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the only way to survive was to walk miles in the snow. Others had to be

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rescued. For over two months, the freezing air sat over the UK, a

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classic blocking pattern, but on an even bigger scale than our winter

:19:08.:19:14.

of 2010. And for 2011, well people are already preparing for the worst,

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especially out in the countryside. That was pretty impressive! Not bad,

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through the gate first time. I have popped back home to Monmouthshire

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in South Wales to see what plans farmers are making to survive the

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worst that nature can throw at us, both for themselves, and, of course,

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their livestock. Not far from here I have a small

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holding, just over four acres, I have a couple of pig, ten ewes and

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some chickens and ducks and things. When the hard weather hits, it is a

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bit of a nightmare. All the pipes freeze, the water troughs freeze,

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everything needs feeding twice as much as it does normally.

:20:03.:20:08.

Everything takes an awful lot more time, but, imagine if you have a

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farm, several hundred acres, and your whole livelihood depends on

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the health of your livestock, or the state of your fields. Then, you

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really know the meaning of hard weather. This sheep farm sond by

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friends of mine, Jim and Kate Beavan. The farm has been in the

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family for four generation, they have a thousand sheep, 80 cows and

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all sorts of other animals. Whatever the weather, these animals

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need feeding, that is a big problem if their food is frozen under a

:20:48.:20:52.

foot of snow. If they are pregnant, and they have got lambs inside them,

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then, of course, if they don't get enough food, then the lambs will

:20:56.:20:59.

suffer. The other problem s when you are rooting around in the snow,

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as a sheep, and you are looking for food, you are using up energy, and

:21:05.:21:08.

keeping warm in the low temperatures, that is using up

:21:08.:21:11.

energy, they need more food. It is a vicious cycle. You go through an

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awful lot of food when the weather is cold. What have you done to

:21:17.:21:22.

mitigate that? We have planted approximately 30 acres of root

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crops, so they grow in, there is a swift variety of kale that grows

:21:27.:21:30.

about that high, takes a lot of snow to cover that. Do you feel

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prepared, do you think that if the worst happens you can cope? Yep. We

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have had a good harvest this year, we have some good root crops.

:21:40.:21:48.

we have down to a tee, water is the biggest problem, that is a problem,

:21:48.:21:53.

at lambing time it is a problem. You think should we lamb earlier or

:21:53.:21:56.

later, it could come in January or March, you don't know when it is

:21:56.:22:03.

going to come. Jim and Kate have been farming for

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a long time. As much as they will listen to the forecasts, they have

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learned the hard way that there is only so much a weather report can

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tell them. I can't see how it can work for months and months in

:22:15.:22:20.

advance. When they have got a week or a fortnight, I can see that. But

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when they say we will have heavy snow in January and February, I

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can't see it in my mind, I can't work out how they can do that.

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Short-term they have it bang on. Today I looked at it yesterday, we

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knew exactly when the rain would start and finish, it was pretty

:22:36.:22:42.

much bang on. The cows were lying down, we knew it would rain. Long-

:22:42.:22:45.

term, as I remember, they said it would be a boiling hot summer, and

:22:45.:22:50.

we didn't get it. What do you reckon, is it going to snow this

:22:50.:22:53.

year? We will have t but I don't think we will have the quantities

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that people are saying. I honestly don't. I said three years on the

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trot, no. I have got the sledges out!

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There you are, that is the definitive winter forecast from the

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Beavans. Of course, weather forecasting is

:23:13.:23:18.

hardly a new art. Gardener, Alys Fowler, has been tracking down some

:23:18.:23:23.

of the more eccentric methods of divining whether a freeze is on its

:23:23.:23:30.

way. Before modern weather forecasting,

:23:30.:23:34.

we looked to nature to tell us what to expect from the weather. Not

:23:34.:23:38.

just day-to-day, but for weeks and months ahead. Bits of that

:23:38.:23:43.

knowledge, known as weatherlore, survive even today.

:23:43.:23:48.

We have all heard the saying, "red sky at night, shepherd's delight,

:23:49.:23:54.

red sky in the morning, shepherd's warning", is there any truth in it.

:23:54.:24:00.

It turns out it is, a red sky at night tells us the setting sun is

:24:00.:24:02.

sending light through dust particles, this usually means high

:24:02.:24:05.

pressure and stable air from the west. Good weather is heading our

:24:05.:24:10.

way. If the morning sky is red, it can

:24:10.:24:14.

indicate lots of water in the atmosphere. And if it is cold

:24:14.:24:19.

enough, that can produce snow. But what about our big question,

:24:19.:24:25.

will it snow? What weatherlore predicts harsh

:24:25.:24:28.

winters? This is one of my favourite ones,

:24:28.:24:37.

onions skined very thin, milds a winter coming in, onion skin thick

:24:37.:24:40.

and rough, winter is coming in rough. This is Spanish one, not

:24:40.:24:45.

that accurate! But, of course, vegtables harvested

:24:45.:24:49.

in August simply cannot tell us anything about the winter ahead. So

:24:49.:24:51.

if onion weatherlore is out, what is in?

:24:51.:24:56.

They say if the qirl has a really bushy tail, - the squirrel has a

:24:56.:25:01.

really bushy tail, it will be a cold winter. Surely it is just that

:25:01.:25:05.

they fluff up their tails to stay warm!

:25:05.:25:09.

Here is another, thunder in September means snow is six weeks

:25:09.:25:14.

away, also meaning less. Why did saying like this come about? Most

:25:14.:25:18.

likely it is because trying to plan for bad weather was even more

:25:18.:25:23.

important to our ancestors than to us today.

:25:23.:25:28.

Lots of berries, particularly on the rowan or holly, is supposed to

:25:28.:25:33.

indicate a hard winter is coming, this is a really good berry year.

:25:33.:25:37.

But, alas, I haven't been able to find a scientist who can stand this

:25:37.:25:41.

one up for me either. Although, I'm sure this berry bounty will be

:25:41.:25:45.

snapped up in weeks to come. But there is one piece of

:25:45.:25:50.

weatherlore that may be able to help us. Bob Elliot from the RSPB

:25:50.:25:57.

is the man in the know. What about the old wives tale that

:25:57.:26:02.

the swan brings winter on its wings? I think it is a lovely

:26:02.:26:05.

saying, we have grown up with it. What is true is they are fleeing

:26:05.:26:09.

the colder weather, they are bringing the winter with them.

:26:09.:26:13.

there a particular swan we should be looking out for? A very special

:26:13.:26:23.
:26:23.:26:23.

species called the Buick swan, nest ing in Siberia - testing in Siberia,

:26:23.:26:27.

in early November there is a huge migration of these birds. Most

:26:27.:26:32.

arrived all in one go over a couple of days. Very soon after that we

:26:32.:26:35.

had snowy weather, they were fleeing from the extreme weather

:26:35.:26:39.

conditions, this snow. When the swan falls, the snowfalls?

:26:39.:26:44.

Precisely. It is the first week of November,

:26:44.:26:48.

and they haven't arrived yet, so I think we are OK for now

:26:48.:26:52.

I would like to believe that swans really can give us a heads up on

:26:52.:26:58.

the weather. But when the big freeze descends, it is the smaller

:26:59.:27:05.

birds that inhabit our gardens that need our help.

:27:05.:27:11.

Bob has some tips for us? What they try to do is recreate their food

:27:12.:27:16.

supplies in the gardens. Fruit, for the fruit-eating species, like the

:27:16.:27:21.

thrushes, put out windfall apples, if you have some spare rotten

:27:21.:27:27.

apples from the kitchen, they can be really beneficial for them.

:27:27.:27:32.

they need more high-protien food, an apple is a lot of sugar? It is,

:27:32.:27:39.

they need seeds, high protien, they need fatty foods, good old standard

:27:39.:27:44.

peanuts have a lot of fat in it, they zone in on those. They will

:27:44.:27:48.

know where they are, these feeding stations in people's gardens, they

:27:48.:27:53.

know where it is. It is in their winter territories, and feed on

:27:53.:27:56.

them communally it is a special sight. Where birds in the summer,

:27:56.:28:01.

they are all breeding, separate in their own territories. Here, in the

:28:01.:28:05.

winter, during snowy weather in particular, competition is pretty

:28:05.:28:08.

fierce, but if there is enough food to go round, generally all the

:28:09.:28:12.

different species will be able to find their particular food needs.

:28:12.:28:17.

sometimes put out warm water for the birds, is it a good idea?

:28:17.:28:21.

a good idea, temperatures will drop eventually so overnight they will

:28:21.:28:25.

freeze. Try anything from a ping pong ball, one of my friends has

:28:25.:28:29.

loads of these yellow plastic ducks that you have in the bath, floating

:28:29.:28:35.

around in the water bowl outside, if it is a bit breezy the motion of

:28:35.:28:39.

the objects will keep the ice from forming, at least enough for the

:28:39.:28:43.

birds in the morning to drink. It is not just drinking it is bathing

:28:43.:28:48.

that is incredibly important for them. Their feathers have been to

:28:48.:28:52.

be in absolute tip top condition to survive the bad weather. They need

:28:52.:28:55.

to be insulated properly, they can only do that if they are clean.

:28:55.:28:59.

can't imagine having a bath on a cold day, I can see it makes sense.

:28:59.:29:03.

So there is lots we can do to help wildlife survive the snow. We are

:29:03.:29:07.

helped by the fact that city gardens tend to be warmer. It is

:29:07.:29:13.

called the urban heat island effect. Gardens in big cities like London,

:29:13.:29:17.

Birmingham and Manchester can be as much as five degrees warmer than

:29:17.:29:23.

rural counterparts. All that brick and concrete is

:29:23.:29:29.

great at stopping the heat escaping. But for prolonged cold spells, even

:29:29.:29:32.

our urban gardens fall victim to the weather.

:29:32.:29:37.

We just don't know what this winter will bring, but we do know, from

:29:37.:29:41.

bitter experience, how damaging it can be for the garden and the

:29:41.:29:45.

wildlife. So wrap up your plants, put out some extra bird food, then,

:29:45.:29:55.
:29:55.:29:58.

if it does snow, at least you can Alys's advice will help our

:29:58.:30:01.

wildlife through a tough winter. What about us? Are the

:30:01.:30:04.

organisations we rely on to keep us warm and healthy ready for the snow

:30:04.:30:12.

if it comes? It looks like the major utilities

:30:12.:30:17.

companies are preparing for the worst. Hundreds of people have had

:30:17.:30:21.

their gas supplies limited as the National Grid tries to cope with

:30:21.:30:26.

the demand from home owners. National Grid has been forced to

:30:26.:30:29.

issue a warning that demand for energy is threatening to outstrip

:30:29.:30:34.

supplies. Only the second time they have ever had to do so.

:30:34.:30:39.

When a cold snap bites, our demand for energy can jump 30%, as we turn

:30:39.:30:49.
:30:49.:30:50.

up the heating. It is not just about energy, winter

:30:50.:30:56.

places an added burden on the NHS, due to people injuring themselves

:30:56.:31:01.

on snow and ice. I slipped and fell with my dog, I had a stick but I

:31:01.:31:06.

fell on the ice. Size is always a nightmare, people call - ice is

:31:06.:31:11.

always a nightmare, people fall over and break things like wrists

:31:11.:31:16.

and ankles. It can cost an extra �40 billion in treatment costs. The

:31:16.:31:22.

Met Office has arranged to send out weather reports about freezing to

:31:22.:31:27.

the NHS, all in a bid to reduce the 25,000 deaths estimated if there is

:31:27.:31:33.

another big freeze. But it isth still feels as these

:31:33.:31:38.

organisations are often working in the dark. So where are the

:31:38.:31:42.

newspapers getting their headlines from? There seems to be certain

:31:42.:31:47.

forecasters out there claiming they can offer long-term predictions,

:31:47.:31:51.

you can find them on the Internet. Is it really possible to beat the

:31:51.:31:55.

Met Office? For big businesses, being able to plan weeks and months

:31:55.:32:01.

ahead, is invaluable. And our supermarkets are no exception.

:32:01.:32:06.

When bad weather is predicted, we tend to bulk buy, hot chocolate is

:32:06.:32:15.

on the top of our list. And I am, - I'm delighted to say, is bird seed.

:32:15.:32:19.

Supermarkets rely on the road and rail network to keep the shelves

:32:19.:32:23.

well stocked. When bad weather hits, that supply chain comes under

:32:23.:32:26.

threat. These days, most supermarkets have their own in-

:32:26.:32:32.

house weather analysts. That is how important it is to them to know

:32:32.:32:39.

what the weather is doing. I went to find out more from Ross

:32:39.:32:47.

Eggletonn at more sons. This is extraordinary, - more sons, this is

:32:47.:32:49.

extraordinary, are you using the same information as everyone else,

:32:49.:32:54.

are you using the information from the Met Office? We also have an

:32:54.:32:57.

independent provider that provides weather forecasts to us as a

:32:57.:33:03.

business. What do your customers tend to buy? The snow? When it

:33:03.:33:10.

snows behaviour seems - tend to buy in the snow? When the snow comes

:33:10.:33:13.

behaviour shifts, lots of tinned food, in times of harsh weather I

:33:13.:33:19.

think people like comfort, so comfort food seems to be it. Stews,

:33:19.:33:25.

shepherd's pie? It is the home made, more traditional British dishes.

:33:25.:33:28.

By combining Met Office data with information from other sources,

:33:28.:33:32.

this supermarket tries to stay ahead of the game.

:33:32.:33:37.

It is not foolproof, but Ross thinks it lets them get a slightly

:33:37.:33:41.

better handle on what is round the corner.

:33:41.:33:47.

What we have here, this is a map of all of the area serviced by the

:33:47.:33:50.

Bridgwater depot. What we can do is pick up either an individual

:33:51.:33:56.

vehicle, or we can look at a particular area. We get a live feed

:33:56.:34:00.

back from that vehicle that tells us where it is, in temples location,

:34:00.:34:04.

but also how fast it is moving, and - in terms of location, also how

:34:04.:34:08.

fast it is moving, and the distance travelled over the last four or

:34:08.:34:12.

five minutes. Each of the boxes represents a vehicle? Yes when it

:34:12.:34:19.

is snowing we can see where the vehicles are due to the weather or

:34:19.:34:22.

congestion due to weather. Due to this material we were able to keep

:34:22.:34:27.

every store open every day throughout the whole period.

:34:27.:34:30.

Your nightmare scenario would be if you had a huge dump of snow,

:34:30.:34:33.

immediately around where this depot is. Because that then stops

:34:33.:34:40.

everything going out? Absolutely. Our worst case scenario is heavy

:34:40.:34:44.

snowfall on the depot. The risk to our business is not worth

:34:44.:34:48.

contemplating if we can't get out. It is not worth it. The burning

:34:48.:34:52.

question, I suppose, how nervous are you about this winter, what is

:34:53.:34:57.

your forecast telling you? This year we think the pattern might be

:34:57.:35:00.

different. We are expecting heavy snow the last week in November, but

:35:01.:35:03.

particularly in the north-east and Scotland. There is going to be

:35:03.:35:06.

wintry showers in December throughout, we believe. But not to

:35:06.:35:10.

the same magnitude as last year. We believe that the heavy snowfall is

:35:10.:35:20.

probably going to come in the new year. Kind of fascinating, isn't it,

:35:20.:35:25.

that there is a company that is willing to be that prescriptive

:35:25.:35:29.

about what the winter's weather has in store. Not only saying that

:35:29.:35:32.

there is going to be a lot of snow in Scotland and the north-east, at

:35:32.:35:37.

the end of this month, but then prepared to say, snow flurries

:35:37.:35:42.

throughout December, and not until the new year, will there be, a

:35:42.:35:46.

really serious snowfall in the UK. But I'm amazed that they feel that

:35:46.:35:51.

they can give that sort of very, very accurate information. I'm with

:35:51.:35:56.

the Met Office on this, I'm pretty sceptical about being that precise

:35:56.:36:00.

about long range forecasts. The Met Office are not saying it won't snow.

:36:00.:36:03.

What they are saying is we can't predict very accurately on what day

:36:04.:36:09.

it is going to snow. But there are these website, aren't there, that

:36:09.:36:15.

are filling a gap. I suppose we do want and expect very accurate

:36:15.:36:18.

weather forecasts. That's right. People really do want to know this

:36:18.:36:22.

information, because of our national obsession with the weather

:36:22.:36:27.

maybe. I don't think the science is good enough to make those specific

:36:27.:36:34.

predictions. We can actually put our postcode into this one here.

:36:34.:36:40.

That is the postcode for BBC Scotland. What does it say? 13-14

:36:40.:36:45.

degrees in the next few days, the chances of snow are, zero. No real

:36:45.:36:52.

surprise there. But that is five day, you think, that scientifically

:36:52.:36:55.

stands up. Meteorologists around the world would agree with that.

:36:55.:36:59.

That is what weathermen do. What I would be extremely cautious about

:36:59.:37:05.

is saying it will snow in six weeks times or on the 17th of December,

:37:05.:37:10.

or a specific long range forecast. Those specific long range forecasts

:37:10.:37:15.

have got us into trouble in the past. It reminds me of the infamous

:37:15.:37:20.

summer of 2009. The economy may be in the doldrum, at least there is

:37:20.:37:24.

some hope on the horizon for a long hot summer. The Met Office says we

:37:24.:37:29.

are heading for a long period of barbecue weather this year. After

:37:29.:37:32.

the washouts of recent years, it could be a summer to remember.

:37:32.:37:37.

didn't just rain a bit, it poured and poured.

:37:37.:37:41.

I think we better go home, it is getting very, very, very wet.

:37:42.:37:46.

And the weather got even more extreme. Out in the Bristol Channel,

:37:46.:37:50.

cameras spotted what looked like a water spout, while the Isle of

:37:50.:37:55.

Lewis was hit by a tornado. So did the Met Office get it wrong,

:37:56.:38:01.

or were they misinterpreted. I'm going to take you back to the

:38:01.:38:07.

summer of 2009, the infamous summer, where we were promised barbecues

:38:07.:38:10.

from beginning to end. All that happened was it rained, it was

:38:10.:38:14.

pretty cold and our barbecues sat in the garden getting rusty. Why

:38:14.:38:18.

did you get it so wrong? I think the message got translated by

:38:18.:38:22.

certain sections of the press into what is called a deterministic

:38:22.:38:27.

forecast. It will be a hot summer, or something like that. The

:38:27.:38:33.

information we put out was it is odds on for a barbecue summer. The

:38:33.:38:37.

probability was high that we would end up with a warm summer. The

:38:37.:38:41.

summer wasn't as bad as you think, but a bit of a disappointment for a

:38:41.:38:46.

lot of people. This is the problem with any kind of forecast. The

:38:46.:38:49.

weather around us is just too chaotic for anyone to be able to

:38:49.:38:53.

make a definitive prediction more than a few days ahead. And maybe

:38:53.:38:56.

there is another side to this. But the public doesn't always take the

:38:56.:39:06.

weather as seriously as it should. This is the M8 motorway, the

:39:06.:39:10.

busiest in Scotland, brought to a stand still by the worst blizzard

:39:10.:39:16.

to hit the country in 40 years. Hundreds of motorists were left

:39:16.:39:18.

stranded, with no let up in the conditions, many were forced to

:39:18.:39:24.

spend the night in their cars, as temperatures plunged to minus 14

:39:24.:39:31.

degrees send grate. - centigrade.

:39:32.:39:40.

I started at Deerpark at 10.05am. That is me travelling five miles in

:39:40.:39:44.

ten hours. Somebody needs it pay for this. Who? The head of

:39:44.:39:48.

transport. The transport minister. The Met Office warned of severe

:39:48.:39:56.

blizzards and icey roads, a full 12 hours before the snow arrived.

:39:56.:40:00.

new weather feature brings fresh snowfall into the central belt just

:40:00.:40:06.

in time for the rush hour. Despite the warning, motorists headed off

:40:06.:40:14.

to work, and drove straight into a clearly forecast bliz standard. -

:40:14.:40:19.

blizzard. How much warning we get, there is little to keep the roads

:40:19.:40:22.

clear when a blizzard on this scale hits.

:40:22.:40:26.

What about this year? If the last couple of winters are anything to

:40:26.:40:30.

go by, it is a problem not just confined to Scotland. If major

:40:30.:40:33.

roads anywhere in the country aren't treated in time, it is

:40:33.:40:37.

gridlock. Have we learned a valuable lesson?

:40:37.:40:43.

Apparently, we now have 1,500 extra tonnes of grit, stockpiled up and

:40:43.:40:53.

down the country. But is there really enough to go around? It

:40:53.:40:59.

might not look that much, but last year this stuff was like gold dust.

:40:59.:41:04.

UK piles of grit ran dangerously low, some councils ran out all

:41:04.:41:07.

together. There was reports of criminal gangs stealing this stuff

:41:08.:41:12.

and selling it on the black market. The question is, this time round,

:41:12.:41:20.

are we better prepared? I have come to one of three depots

:41:20.:41:23.

that supply Glasgow's fleet of gritters. I'm hoping that Robert

:41:23.:41:26.

Booth, the council's executive director of land and Environmental

:41:26.:41:31.

Services, will convince me this time we will be prepared.

:41:31.:41:35.

I'm pretty sure this is the biggest pile of grit I have ever stood on,

:41:35.:41:39.

how much have you got here? 6,000 tonnes in the barn. 22,000 tonnes

:41:39.:41:45.

held in Glasgow. The simplest question I ask, what is it? That is

:41:45.:41:50.

a mixture of rocksalt, molasses, or sugar. This is salt, with sugar on

:41:50.:41:55.

it? That seems quite a complex thing for grit. Most people think

:41:55.:42:01.

it is dirt. That mixture allows us to melt ice and Snowndown as low as

:42:01.:42:07.

minus 10 degrees. Rocksalt on its own would stop working at

:42:07.:42:11.

temperatures of minus six degrees. It gives us a material better in

:42:11.:42:14.

combatting the severe weather in Scotland and elsewhere. Where do

:42:14.:42:17.

you get it from? Most of our stock comes from Northern Ireland. But we

:42:17.:42:23.

have had to, in the past, purchase from as far away as Chile. This is

:42:23.:42:29.

Irish grit, and that over there a Chilean grit? Most of it, yes.

:42:29.:42:35.

is estimated upwards of 50,000 tonnes per day would be needed to

:42:36.:42:39.

keep Britain moving through another big freeze.

:42:39.:42:43.

It is not just having reserves of grit that is important, you also

:42:43.:42:53.
:42:53.:42:55.

have to know where and between use Your man is loading up the gritter

:42:55.:43:02.

from the 6,000 tonnes then, when do you know the right time to grit?

:43:02.:43:06.

culmination of factors, we have three weather forecasts every day,

:43:06.:43:11.

one in the morning, noon and 7.00pm at night. We have a number of

:43:11.:43:16.

sensors in the roads across the city. All those factors allow the

:43:16.:43:21.

supervisors to make a decision on between grit. We try to grit before

:43:21.:43:25.

the weather hits the city, get the grit on the road before the snow

:43:25.:43:28.

comes. Temperature sensors in the road can give an indication of

:43:28.:43:32.

where and when the grit is most needed. That level of preparedness

:43:32.:43:39.

isn't cheap. It cost us, last year, �4 million

:43:39.:43:41.

for our winter maintenance programme. That is a lot of money,

:43:41.:43:46.

but a small price to pay to ensure Glasgow continues to operate.

:43:46.:43:50.

This sentiment is echoed across the country, with the vast majority of

:43:50.:43:54.

councils ordering much more grit than in 2010. With luck, that will

:43:54.:44:01.

be enough to avoid the chaos of last year. What's this then, the

:44:01.:44:06.

great British grit-off? It is demonstration time. Clearly. You

:44:06.:44:08.

demonstrate why grit is so important for getting us through

:44:08.:44:13.

the winter. Right, here is a giant bucket of grit, which I may or may

:44:13.:44:19.

not have borrowed off Glasgow council. This is the stuff in the

:44:19.:44:23.

yellow bins you see alongside the road? This one has a lot of rocks

:44:23.:44:28.

in t but basically grit is rocksalt, it is salt. It is a big block of

:44:28.:44:32.

ice. No kidding. You are good, I can see why you're a scientist?

:44:32.:44:37.

know, so what happens is, when you mix salt with water, it reduces the

:44:37.:44:42.

freezing temperature. If I put salt on water it will no longer freeze

:44:42.:44:47.

at zero degrees. Pop some down there. Look it is melting already.

:44:47.:44:51.

Ice has a particular characteristic, it is sort of unique, but it is

:44:51.:44:55.

what makes grit work in terms of gritting the road. I'm going to do

:44:55.:45:00.

something, I will lean my microphone over this? Can you hear

:45:00.:45:04.

it cracking. It is melting. Sorry, go on. When you put your hand on

:45:04.:45:08.

ice, it feels slidey, the reason for that is that ice is not just

:45:08.:45:13.

solid, on the surface it has a constantly changing melting and

:45:13.:45:18.

refreezing cycle, all the time. That is why ice-skaters can glide

:45:18.:45:23.

so easily, there is a thin sheen of water. What happens is, when you

:45:23.:45:28.

add the salt, in the form of grit, to the ice, it he dissolves into

:45:28.:45:35.

that surface layer, and stops it - it dissolves into that surface

:45:35.:45:40.

layer and that refreezes. So you have a surface that is safe for

:45:40.:45:44.

walking? The tyres go over it rather than sliding on the thin

:45:44.:45:48.

surface. There was Koon none drum last year, particularly here -

:45:48.:45:51.

conundrum last year, particularly here in Scotland. It was so cold

:45:51.:45:55.

people were claiming grit no longer worked? That is also true. The

:45:55.:46:02.

reason for, is when you get to minus 7-9 degrees Celsius, the salt

:46:02.:46:06.

doesn't dissolve into the water it freezes too quickly. At that point

:46:06.:46:10.

it stops working. At that point you have to use sand or not go out.

:46:11.:46:14.

all? Probably best. But, but, but, there is another thing, actually is

:46:15.:46:19.

it isn't specific to salt, you can use anything that dissolves in

:46:19.:46:22.

water. It has the effect of reducing the freezing temperature

:46:22.:46:27.

of the water. As we have seen, even sugar can do the job. Last winter

:46:27.:46:37.
:46:37.:46:38.

there were reports of sheep licking the shrugry grit off the roads.

:46:38.:46:43.

keep your sheep inside if you are using sugary grit! Thank you, great

:46:43.:46:47.

demonstration. How much we love to moan, are our

:46:47.:46:50.

winters really getting worse? Science would argue that in fact we

:46:50.:46:55.

shouldn't be moaning at all. We know, from studying ice core

:46:55.:46:59.

samples, that there was a time when our winters were very different.

:46:59.:47:06.

For a period of almost 300 years, from 1550-1850, the average

:47:06.:47:09.

temperatures in Britain fell by half a degree. Now that doesn't

:47:09.:47:13.

sound a lot, but it had a devastating effect on our climate.

:47:14.:47:23.
:47:24.:47:24.

This period is known as the little Ice Age.

:47:24.:47:28.

It caused the River Thames to freeze over. Bitter winters reduced

:47:28.:47:33.

the growing season for farmers by as much as two months. Crops failed,

:47:33.:47:37.

forcing up grain prices. The result was malnutrition and familiar

:47:37.:47:43.

anyone, which wiped out huge numbers of the population. - famine,

:47:43.:47:46.

which wiped out huge numbers of the population. Bitter cold winters had

:47:46.:47:51.

become a fact of life. Since then, when you look over the long-term,

:47:51.:47:54.

it looks like our average temperatures have claimed

:47:54.:47:57.

significantly. Despite our last three cold winters, when we look

:47:57.:48:04.

back at snowfall records for the last century. We see that a snowy

:48:04.:48:09.

winter is quite a rare event in the British Isles F it is not the start

:48:09.:48:19.
:48:19.:48:21.

of a another mini-Ice Age, what is So could three bad winters in a row,

:48:21.:48:27.

simply be a freak of nature, or is there something out there having a

:48:27.:48:32.

profound influence on our weather? The sun, our nearest star, it heats

:48:32.:48:36.

our planet, can it be responsible for freezing Britain? If so, what

:48:36.:48:45.

is it about the sun's activity that cools rather than warms the UK?

:48:45.:48:49.

You would be for given for thinking that the sun might not be the first

:48:49.:48:52.

thing you take into consideration when trying to predict snowfall.

:48:52.:48:55.

But scientists here at the university of Reading have

:48:55.:48:58.

established a clear link between sunspot activity and our winter

:48:58.:49:04.

weather. Sunspots are dark regions on the

:49:04.:49:10.

surface of the sun. They are caused by intense magnetic activity.

:49:10.:49:15.

When they disappear, less heat and light hit the earth. Which the team

:49:15.:49:20.

at Reading believes shows up as a reduction in levels of ultraviolet

:49:20.:49:25.

light. They think fewer sunspots and less UV light means harsher

:49:25.:49:33.

winters. Mike Lockwood is at the forefront of this research.

:49:33.:49:39.

So the sun is nice and warm today, how can the sun actually make our

:49:39.:49:46.

weather colder, it seems very counterintuitive? What it does is

:49:46.:49:50.

it affects the highest part of the at moss stpee, the strat sphere,

:49:50.:49:58.

how the winds propagate down - stratosphere, how the winds

:49:58.:50:02.

propagate down is hard to understand, but we are beginning to

:50:02.:50:06.

do. It is the UV on the sun on the Stratosphere, that determines what

:50:06.:50:13.

happens down on the ground? Europe, yes, it is not a global

:50:13.:50:15.

problem. It is something that affects Europe, and Eastern Europe

:50:15.:50:18.

and here, we are on the edges in the UK. Mike and his colleagues are

:50:18.:50:22.

using data from satellites that measure ultraviolet light from the

:50:22.:50:27.

sun. They have detected a reduction in

:50:27.:50:34.

UV levels, and think this is a result of the solar cycle.

:50:34.:50:38.

The most well known cycle of the sun is roughly 11 years, it goes

:50:38.:50:43.

from being very quiet to very active and back again, and on an 1-

:50:43.:50:49.

year cycle. What is the sun doing right now - 11-year cycle. What is

:50:49.:50:55.

the sun doing right now, what part of the cycle is it at? We have

:50:55.:51:01.

emerged from the longest solar minimum we have had since the 1920.

:51:01.:51:05.

Right now they think we have fewer sunspots and less UV light hitting

:51:05.:51:09.

the earth. In turn, they are modelling how these changes affect

:51:09.:51:14.

the earth's statistics to fear, which could change the weather -

:51:14.:51:17.

stratosphere, which could change the weather systems we experience

:51:17.:51:22.

on the ground. What we found is when solar activity is unusually

:51:22.:51:28.

low. As it has been recently. jetstream can find these big

:51:28.:51:32.

meanders, and that can influence the weather underneath, and in

:51:32.:51:38.

winter, particularly, it affects us here. Ultimate irony, in a warming

:51:38.:51:44.

world, Europe may get more cold winters. They think it is the

:51:44.:51:47.

Northern Hemisphere that is vulnerable, and low solar

:51:47.:51:50.

activities could be one of the factors that causes the jetstream

:51:50.:51:57.

to behave unusually. Remember blocking, that big bad weather wolf,

:51:57.:52:00.

Mike's colleague, Dr Tim Woolings is working on what causes it and

:52:00.:52:05.

how quickly it can happen. blocking event is basically a type

:52:05.:52:08.

of weather pattern, that is fairly persistent. We will have the

:52:08.:52:14.

weather pattern sticking around for a whole week or two. So here we go,

:52:14.:52:18.

this is the blocking forming with the air being pulled up from the

:52:18.:52:23.

Tropics over Greenland. This dense, dark blue bit here is cold air from

:52:23.:52:28.

the Arctic? Exactly. That is being pulled down. That's right. These

:52:28.:52:32.

events are pretty persist dent for weather patterns. Once it has

:52:32.:52:36.

actually started, then, yes, we have quite a bit of predictability

:52:36.:52:41.

for the next week or so. The key is when they will start. It does look

:52:41.:52:46.

very, I'm not jealous of you trying to solve these problems, it looks

:52:46.:52:50.

insanely chaotic to me. It looks like you can't actually predict?

:52:50.:52:56.

This is it, it is maizeing weather prediction works at all - as

:52:56.:52:59.

amazing weather prediction works at all. The idea is still the subject

:52:59.:53:03.

of much discussion, tantalising though it is, it is likely to be a

:53:03.:53:11.

few years yet before this theory is fully understood. Predicting the

:53:11.:53:15.

weather is fiendishly difficult, because there are so many complex

:53:15.:53:20.

and chaotic factors involved. When scientists look at the bigger

:53:20.:53:23.

picture, including solar activity, they can get a much more detailed

:53:23.:53:28.

understanding of how local weather works. Ultimately, that means

:53:28.:53:37.

better, more accurate snow forecasting.

:53:37.:53:41.

Now I know that there are very few of you sitting at home watching

:53:41.:53:45.

this thinking please let's have another long, hard, cold winter,

:53:45.:53:49.

but you can't deny it, there is something very romantic about a

:53:49.:53:53.

white Christmas, isn't there? Everybody loves a white Christmas.

:53:53.:54:01.

I think Bing Crosby is largely responsible for that. And Charles

:54:01.:54:06.

Dickens. The last official white Christmas was in 2009. The official

:54:06.:54:11.

criteria for a white Christmas is that a single snowflake has to fall,

:54:11.:54:16.

it doesn't have to land. That cannot be true. Surely your perfect

:54:16.:54:21.

white Christmas is piles of mince pies and snow everywhere, singing

:54:21.:54:26.

Robins? Alas, no, it gets mori dick Louis. There are nine specific

:54:26.:54:32.

locations where a white Christmas can be officially designated.

:54:32.:54:37.

Aberdeen Football Club. Just get this right, if one snowflake falls

:54:37.:54:45.

above Aberdeen Football Club it is a white Christmas. Belfast Airport,

:54:45.:54:51.

Birmingham Bull Ring, a shopping centre. Cardiff, Millenium Stadium.

:54:51.:54:55.

Edinburgh Castle, Glasgow Cathedral, Liverpool, the Albert Dock,

:54:55.:55:00.

Buckingham Palace. If the Queen sees one. Manchester it is Granada

:55:00.:55:07.

Studio, and the next one is my back garden. I made that one up! So, if

:55:07.:55:11.

a snowflake is observed in the sky, it doesn't have to fall, it doesn't

:55:11.:55:15.

have to settle over any of those locations it is a white Christmas?

:55:15.:55:20.

It is officially a white Christmas. That is a rubbish white Christmas?

:55:20.:55:25.

In London it is currently 10-1. That it will be a white Christmas?

:55:25.:55:30.

Glasgow it is 7-1. There is a bet which I'm not going to make.

:55:30.:55:34.

you not? It is ludicrous. So you are saying what, do you think it is

:55:34.:55:39.

going to snow, do you think it will be a white Christmas? No. It is

:55:39.:55:43.

definitely not. Look, he's a scientist and hedging his bets.

:55:43.:55:47.

Scientists don't make bets. If I knew it was going to snow then I

:55:47.:55:52.

would make a bet. That is what science does. It is pathetic, let's

:55:52.:55:56.

remind ourselves of what our experts have told us. It is going

:55:56.:56:00.

to snow somewhere in the British Isles this winter. Anyone who turns

:56:00.:56:04.

around and says on the 25th of December it will snow is, quite

:56:04.:56:08.

frankly, a fool. We are expecting some heavy snow the last week in

:56:08.:56:12.

November, particularly in the north-east and Scotland. Will it

:56:13.:56:17.

snow this winter? You will have to talk to the Met Office about that

:56:17.:56:21.

and see their latest predictions. Being able to pinpoint the precise

:56:21.:56:25.

conditions under which snowfalls in the atmosphere, could offer help to

:56:26.:56:30.

forecasters when it comes to predicting a monster snowfall hit.

:56:30.:56:34.

At the moment, long-term predictions can only give us an

:56:34.:56:40.

idea of the type of conditions to expect in a winter. They can't tell

:56:40.:56:44.

us categorically if and when it will snow. The good news is

:56:44.:56:47.

meteorologists can recognise the kind of weather system that brings

:56:47.:56:50.

very cold conditions, one that blocks the warming effects of

:56:50.:56:57.

currents like the jetstream and the thermohaline circulation that keep

:56:57.:57:04.

the UK mild. It is a system that can close in on us in a matter of

:57:04.:57:11.

days t can't be picked bup I long range forecast. For the mini-Ice

:57:11.:57:14.

Age,s expert consensus is there is no compelling evidence. Some argue

:57:14.:57:19.

we may even be in for a run of milder winters. We may not know

:57:19.:57:25.

where or win it will snow, but we do know that it will snow. The

:57:25.:57:28.

heartening thing we have discovered on the epic weather quest around

:57:28.:57:31.

the country, is people are beginning to take the idea of

:57:31.:57:34.

winter much more seriously. Organisations like our supermarkets

:57:35.:57:39.

and the health service and airports, are getting prepared for the worst.

:57:39.:57:43.

So that if it does happen, we shouldn't get into the pickle that

:57:43.:57:46.

we did last winter. That's right, it is the beginning of November

:57:47.:57:51.

right now, all the best data we can get from the Met Office suggests we

:57:51.:57:54.

are not going to have a particularly cold winter. But, what

:57:54.:57:57.

we have learned is that the position of the UK on the earth,

:57:57.:58:00.

means that our weather systems are chaotic and difficult to predict.

:58:00.:58:04.

So we can't rule out the possibility that we may get a

:58:04.:58:09.

sudden big freeze. Don't shout at the weatherman if it happens. And

:58:09.:58:13.

also, remember that we are, standing here, at the beginning of

:58:13.:58:17.

November, that is the beginning of winter, a season where temperatures

:58:17.:58:21.

drop, and occasional bad weather does get flung at our doorsteps.

:58:21.:58:25.

Here is my little piece of advice, for what it is worth. Dig out the

:58:25.:58:29.

winter woolies, stock up on hot chocolate and bird feed and get out

:58:29.:58:37.

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