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This spell of dry weather is set to continue for most of us | 0:00:03 | 0:00:05 | |
into next week, but we will start to see some changes, | 0:00:05 | 0:00:08 | |
and it's all linked to what's going on in the United States. | 0:00:08 | 0:00:11 | |
More on that in a moment. | 0:00:11 | 0:00:12 | |
First, let's come back to the UK | 0:00:12 | 0:00:14 | |
and look at the dry conditions | 0:00:14 | 0:00:16 | |
persisting through Thursday. | 0:00:16 | 0:00:18 | |
Again, the cloud will make a big difference, | 0:00:18 | 0:00:20 | |
and again, parts of the east coast | 0:00:20 | 0:00:21 | |
will stay misty and murky. | 0:00:21 | 0:00:23 | |
It may take a while for the Central Belt | 0:00:23 | 0:00:24 | |
of Scotland to brighten up, | 0:00:24 | 0:00:26 | |
but many places looking quite sunny | 0:00:26 | 0:00:28 | |
by the afternoon. | 0:00:28 | 0:00:29 | |
Still a chilly breeze in the south, | 0:00:29 | 0:00:31 | |
but here, we should see the top temperatures, | 0:00:31 | 0:00:33 | |
10-12 Celsius - again, on the east coast, | 0:00:33 | 0:00:36 | |
if the cloud sticks, just 6-7 Celsius. | 0:00:36 | 0:00:38 | |
The dry spell is of course | 0:00:38 | 0:00:40 | |
due to this big area of high pressure. | 0:00:40 | 0:00:42 | |
It is just very slowly continuing to head | 0:00:42 | 0:00:45 | |
its way further west into the Atlantic, | 0:00:45 | 0:00:48 | |
and subtle changes in that high mean | 0:00:48 | 0:00:50 | |
subtle changes in the wind, | 0:00:50 | 0:00:52 | |
and that has a big impact on where we see the cloud. | 0:00:52 | 0:00:54 | |
I think the sunniest weather on Friday, | 0:00:54 | 0:00:56 | |
Wales and south-west England. | 0:00:56 | 0:00:57 | |
Parts of Scotland seeing some sunshine, | 0:00:57 | 0:00:59 | |
but much of central and eastern Britain | 0:00:59 | 0:01:01 | |
will be rather dull and rather chilly. | 0:01:01 | 0:01:03 | |
Now, the high is still there, | 0:01:03 | 0:01:05 | |
dominating into the weekend, | 0:01:05 | 0:01:06 | |
so a lot of dry weather, but around it, | 0:01:06 | 0:01:09 | |
now we're starting to see the winds | 0:01:09 | 0:01:10 | |
come more down from the north, | 0:01:10 | 0:01:12 | |
introducing a cooler feel | 0:01:12 | 0:01:13 | |
and introducing a lot of moisture, | 0:01:13 | 0:01:16 | |
maybe a few light showers here and there, | 0:01:16 | 0:01:18 | |
but generally it's just going to be a cloudy day. | 0:01:18 | 0:01:20 | |
These are the temperatures | 0:01:20 | 0:01:21 | |
if it stays dull - single figures. | 0:01:21 | 0:01:23 | |
Some places may see a bit of brightness | 0:01:23 | 0:01:25 | |
and get to double digits. | 0:01:25 | 0:01:26 | |
On Sunday, we start to see a few more showers | 0:01:26 | 0:01:29 | |
drifting into the far north-west, | 0:01:29 | 0:01:30 | |
a hint of a change here, | 0:01:30 | 0:01:31 | |
but again for most, it's still dry, | 0:01:31 | 0:01:34 | |
it's still rather cloudy. | 0:01:34 | 0:01:35 | |
By the time we get to Monday, | 0:01:35 | 0:01:37 | |
the high has properly started | 0:01:37 | 0:01:38 | |
to edge away from Ireland. | 0:01:38 | 0:01:39 | |
The weather fronts are starting | 0:01:39 | 0:01:41 | |
to make inroads across the far north-west. | 0:01:41 | 0:01:43 | |
Lots of uncertainty about the timing | 0:01:43 | 0:01:45 | |
on those weather fronts, | 0:01:45 | 0:01:46 | |
and the uncertainty is enhanced | 0:01:46 | 0:01:48 | |
through next week, | 0:01:48 | 0:01:50 | |
because of what's going on | 0:01:50 | 0:01:51 | |
in the United States. | 0:01:51 | 0:01:52 | |
It's all linked to the Jet Stream | 0:01:52 | 0:01:54 | |
ribboning its way around the world, | 0:01:54 | 0:01:56 | |
and this warming of the air | 0:01:56 | 0:01:58 | |
across parts of the west of the US | 0:01:58 | 0:02:00 | |
and colder air driving south | 0:02:00 | 0:02:02 | |
across the north-east of the US | 0:02:02 | 0:02:04 | |
enhances the change, the gradient, | 0:02:04 | 0:02:05 | |
between the cold and the warm air, | 0:02:05 | 0:02:07 | |
and that drives the Jet Stream. | 0:02:07 | 0:02:09 | |
So we could see a strong jet driving | 0:02:09 | 0:02:11 | |
south from the US early next week. | 0:02:11 | 0:02:14 | |
Now we looked at this pattern | 0:02:14 | 0:02:16 | |
with the Jet Stream last night, | 0:02:16 | 0:02:17 | |
showing how it's looping round | 0:02:17 | 0:02:20 | |
to the north of the UK, | 0:02:20 | 0:02:21 | |
keeping the weather systems | 0:02:21 | 0:02:23 | |
generally at bay. | 0:02:23 | 0:02:24 | |
What we could see, if the jet intensifies, | 0:02:24 | 0:02:26 | |
driving out of the US - | 0:02:26 | 0:02:27 | |
a bit like a skipping rope, giving it a ripple - | 0:02:27 | 0:02:30 | |
it drives and it's more amplified, | 0:02:30 | 0:02:32 | |
it goes further north | 0:02:32 | 0:02:33 | |
and then comes back south | 0:02:33 | 0:02:35 | |
a little bit further west. | 0:02:35 | 0:02:36 | |
It doesn't look like a big difference, | 0:02:36 | 0:02:38 | |
but it could be the difference | 0:02:38 | 0:02:40 | |
between high pressure still in control of the UK | 0:02:40 | 0:02:42 | |
or, if we see that more amplified pattern, | 0:02:42 | 0:02:45 | |
the Jet Stream allowing the high pressure | 0:02:45 | 0:02:47 | |
to be further west and low pressure systems | 0:02:47 | 0:02:50 | |
may start to move in across the UK - | 0:02:50 | 0:02:52 | |
either way, low pressure hanging on across Europe, | 0:02:52 | 0:02:54 | |
still unsettled across parts of the Mediterranean. | 0:02:54 | 0:02:57 | |
But subtle changes in what's going on | 0:02:57 | 0:02:59 | |
across the US will have an effect | 0:02:59 | 0:03:01 | |
over this side of the Atlantic. | 0:03:01 | 0:03:03 | |
Overall, next week staying chilly, | 0:03:03 | 0:03:05 | |
with some showers increasing, | 0:03:05 | 0:03:06 | |
as the threat of low pressures | 0:03:06 | 0:03:07 | |
arrive across the north. | 0:03:07 | 0:03:09 | |
The driest conditions, closest | 0:03:09 | 0:03:10 | |
to the high across the south. | 0:03:10 | 0:03:11 | |
Then, looking a little further ahead, | 0:03:11 | 0:03:13 | |
into the Easter weekend - | 0:03:13 | 0:03:14 | |
because we've got this blocking pattern, | 0:03:14 | 0:03:16 | |
the changes are always going to be slow, | 0:03:16 | 0:03:18 | |
but it does look as if we're suggesting it'll turn | 0:03:18 | 0:03:21 | |
a bit more unsettled, a bit more showery | 0:03:21 | 0:03:22 | |
for the Easter weekend, and always staying on the cool side. | 0:03:22 | 0:03:25 | |
That is a long way off, though. | 0:03:25 | 0:03:26 | |
We'll obviously firm up on the details over the coming days. | 0:03:26 | 0:03:29 |