19/03/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead


19/03/2016

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Hello. Some would say, when high pressure's in charge across the UK,

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it's Easy Street for forecasters.

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Not necessarily true.

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Although high pressure means we don't have to worry about rain,

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cloud is always problematic.

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And it's particularly problematic at this time of year,

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close to the Equinox, when the sun makes such a difference to the day.

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That's what's been happening this week.

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High pressure has been dominating.

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We haven't had to worry about rain,

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but day on day variations have been huge.

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Look at Monday, a largely sunny day

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on the satellite image. By Tuesday,

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the cloud is spilling back in from the East.

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By Wednesday, the cloud holes

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were all over the place, and yet by Thursday

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we were back to largely sunny conditions

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though it was pretty grey on some eastern coasts

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and then again on Friday,

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the cloud was back in from the East,

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leaving just western areas

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to bask in the spring sunshine.

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The cloud is going to continue

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to win out through the weekend.

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Yes, we'll continue to see some holes,

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particularly across Scotland.

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Sunshine in places here.

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But for most, it's cloudy.

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But it is still, under the influence

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of that high pressure, largely dry.

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A little drizzle's likely here and there.

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But again, temperatures really do

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depend on the sunshine.

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Where we see it, double figures or beyond.

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For most of us, with the cloud,

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we're just at 7 or 8 degrees.

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Here's the high, continuing to slip

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further south as we go through the weekend.

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We're starting to see weather fronts topple in

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across the north getting closer,

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a sign of change.

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A few more showers in northern Scotland.

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But for most, it's dry and cloudy.

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We'll see more sunshine on Sunday

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across north-east England,

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eastern parts of Scotland.

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Again, the sunshine will make a huge difference.

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This is the Azores high,

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it's slipping back to its default position

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over the Azores going into

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the early part of next week.

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But it will be a slow process.

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It's still controlling things on Monday,

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but again, a few more showers

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in western Scotland.

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With the breeze coming in more from the west,

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eastern areas should be more favoured for sunshine.

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Tuesday again, a similar picture,

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though the winds become more from the south-west.

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But generally dry and cloudy

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for the first part of next week sums it up.

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By the time we get to Wednesday,

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the weather pattern looks more traditional,

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with these weather fronts

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trying to come in from the Atlantic.

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But there's big question marks

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about when we start to see a proper change.

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It's all tied in with the jetstream.

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For much of the week, we've had this pattern,

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this blocking pattern.

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The jetstream going to the north of the UK,

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high pressure sitting over us keeping things dry.

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The jetstream through the weekend,

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early part of next week, gets a bit of a kick

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and we get this more amplified pattern,

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where the jetstream goes further north

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and come south a little further west.

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Hence why the high is starting to retreat.

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And things slowly changing a little through the early part of next week.

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If you think of the jetstream,

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that fast-moving ribbon high up,

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as a river, meandering,

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then the default position for that river,

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it always wants to go back to a more direct route,

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that's Mother Nature's way of keeping things simple.

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We will eventually go back to this jetstream

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coming more in from the Atlantic,

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providing more unsettled conditions.

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But with such a strong block,

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a strong pattern, it's difficult to say

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exactly when we'll get back to that more typical condition

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and the more unsettled weather.

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But it does look as if, through Easter weekend,

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it's likely to stay on the cool side

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and we'll start to see more of that change, turning more showery,

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particularly in the North,

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but still a fair bit of dry weather,

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at least for the first part of the weekend across the South.

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Goodbye.

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