28/06/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead


28/06/2016

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Hello there. Summer in Britain. Frustrating, isn't it?

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It's the end of June and we're all desperate for some prolonged,

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settled summer sunshine. Just look at Weston-super-Mare

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on Monday - not a cloud in the sky. Beautiful.

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But unfortunately,

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the weather for the week ahead really looks quite changeable.

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Yes, we'll see some sunshine at times,

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but it will eventually turn cool and breezy from Thursday onwards,

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and some of the rain quite heavy.

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Now, the first signs of a change already starting to

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make its impression felt across the southwest.

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It will bring some rain through the early hours of the morning.

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We start off dry and bright in sheltered eastern areas,

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clouding up all the time.

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The rain turning quite heavy into the south-west

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and across parts of Wales.

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Little more showery in nature through Northern Ireland,

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northern England and Scotland, but underneath the cloud,

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the showers or the longer spells of rain, pretty dismal.

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Perhaps staying dry in the south-east corner

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until the afternoon. That's perhaps good news for Wimbledon.

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Underneath the cloud and rain, disappointing.

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14, 15 degrees - highest values maybe of 20 Celsius.

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Now, that rain continues to push its way steadily eastwards

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and then a chilly night to come, Tuesday into Wednesday,

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before we do it all again - almost a repeat performance.

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So, yes, starting off dry and bright with sunshine out to the east.

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The cloud gathers, the rain arrives, the winds strengthen

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and some of that rain quite heavy again across the southwest,

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through Wales, pushing into northern England.

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Showery through Scotland and through Northern Ireland.

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Now, that rain will clear away and then we see a brief ridge of

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high pressure building, so Thursday will actually start off quite quiet.

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Quite a lot of cloud around and the winds will gradually strengthen

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through the day, particularly into the southwest, gusting to

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gale force at the end of the day. And eventually more significant

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rain moves into Northern Ireland and into north-west Scotland.

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Interestingly enough, the winds here will start to swing round

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to a north-westerly direction. That's going to be important.

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That is going to drag down cooler air from the north as we move

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out of Thursday into Friday.

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A noticeably different feel in the weather.

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Perhaps with the exception of the southeast,

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but, unfortunately, as we move towards the real end of June,

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it's going to feel disappointing, particularly if you're caught

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underneath these showers or longer spells of rain for a time.

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Here, the temperatures perhaps low to mid teens at the very best.

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We keep some sunshine down to the south,

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and that's potentially where we'll keep some warmth.

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High teens, maybe up as high as 20 or 21 degrees if we're lucky.

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Further north, 14 to 16 at the very best.

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Now, as we move into the weekend, we still keep this cooler,

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showery regime up into the northwest.

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Still the risk of some showers further south,

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but hopefully not quite as many. 14 to 19 degrees, the high.

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Now, as we approach the second half of the weekend,

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we need to point out two areas of interest.

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One, this area of low pressure running through the Channel, which

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may bring more significant rain to the south,

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but a lot of uncertainty - it's a long way away at the moment.

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And the other, this area of high pressure. The Azores high.

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That's what we need to give us the settled summer sunshine.

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Now, as we move into the six-to-ten-day period, there is

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a potential that the Azores high might just move a little bit

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further into play and push the jet stream - which is driving

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the low pressures in - a little bit further north,

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which means that there is always the potential to stay cooler

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and more showery further north, but if the high-pressure just

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moves into the south, here it will be warmer, almost humid,

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and maybe the risk of a return to some thundery showers.

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A lot to play for. I'll update you tomorrow.

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Good to have you back, sir. I never thought I'd live to see the day.

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