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It's mid-July, and we may at last this summer, | 0:00:03 | 0:00:06 | |
in the next six to ten days, | 0:00:06 | 0:00:07 | |
see temperatures nudging towards 30 degrees Celsius. | 0:00:07 | 0:00:10 | |
Let's take a look at what's happening | 0:00:10 | 0:00:12 | |
at the weekend first of all, | 0:00:12 | 0:00:13 | |
where we've got a weather front dividing the humid air to the south, | 0:00:13 | 0:00:16 | |
and the Azores High keeping things relatively settled, | 0:00:16 | 0:00:19 | |
with the Atlantic westerly winds and showers to the north. | 0:00:19 | 0:00:22 | |
Where that front grinds to a halt on Saturday, | 0:00:22 | 0:00:24 | |
and we think northern England, North Wales, | 0:00:24 | 0:00:27 | |
through parts of north-east England as well, | 0:00:27 | 0:00:29 | |
it could be a pretty wet day. | 0:00:29 | 0:00:30 | |
To the north of it, showers and a brisk wind. | 0:00:30 | 0:00:33 | |
To the south of it, some humid air. | 0:00:33 | 0:00:35 | |
Certainly looks drier for the golf up in Troon | 0:00:35 | 0:00:37 | |
during the day on Saturday. | 0:00:37 | 0:00:39 | |
Maybe a shower, but it'll be quite blustery. | 0:00:39 | 0:00:41 | |
A fairly moderate to fresh breeze blowing here. | 0:00:41 | 0:00:44 | |
And you can see there are some showers around | 0:00:44 | 0:00:46 | |
for northern and western Scotland, | 0:00:46 | 0:00:47 | |
particularly the Highlands and Islands, | 0:00:47 | 0:00:49 | |
but it won't be as wet as it has been during the day on Friday. | 0:00:49 | 0:00:52 | |
A few showers coming and going across Northern Ireland, | 0:00:52 | 0:00:54 | |
but some sunshine here, too, and for the north of England. | 0:00:54 | 0:00:57 | |
However, for the far south of northern England, | 0:00:57 | 0:00:59 | |
across towards Lincolnshire, North Wales, | 0:00:59 | 0:01:01 | |
we think that area could be quite wet for much of the day. | 0:01:01 | 0:01:04 | |
And where the cloud breaks to the south, | 0:01:04 | 0:01:06 | |
through the Midlands and East Anglia, | 0:01:06 | 0:01:08 | |
we could have an isolated thunderstorm. | 0:01:08 | 0:01:10 | |
And further south again, well, some warmth around, | 0:01:10 | 0:01:12 | |
so it does look largely dry for the first Test | 0:01:12 | 0:01:14 | |
as that continues at Lord's. | 0:01:14 | 0:01:16 | |
Although there will be quite a bit of cloud, | 0:01:16 | 0:01:18 | |
especially early in the day, | 0:01:18 | 0:01:19 | |
and later in the day, as that weather front | 0:01:19 | 0:01:21 | |
starts to push its away, at last, further southwards, | 0:01:21 | 0:01:24 | |
and introduces more cloud, | 0:01:24 | 0:01:25 | |
still that muggy feel towards the south. | 0:01:25 | 0:01:27 | |
Further north, we've got increasing amounts of cloud | 0:01:27 | 0:01:30 | |
on another weather front coming in to the north and the west. | 0:01:30 | 0:01:32 | |
But in between, it looks drier on Sunday | 0:01:32 | 0:01:34 | |
for some parts of northern England, North Wales. | 0:01:34 | 0:01:37 | |
We'll see temperatures in this zone creeping up, | 0:01:37 | 0:01:39 | |
so a drier second half of the weekend. | 0:01:39 | 0:01:41 | |
And we'll still realise temperatures | 0:01:41 | 0:01:43 | |
into the mid- to high teens further north. | 0:01:43 | 0:01:45 | |
Into Monday. The remnants of that front is in the south, | 0:01:45 | 0:01:48 | |
and what we'll find is the warm air starts to push back northwards. | 0:01:48 | 0:01:51 | |
A lot of dry weather with it | 0:01:51 | 0:01:53 | |
away from western Scotland and Northern Ireland. | 0:01:53 | 0:01:56 | |
So for mostly England and Wales, it looks increasingly warm | 0:01:56 | 0:01:59 | |
and increasingly sunny through Monday and Tuesday. | 0:01:59 | 0:02:02 | |
We're starting to draw in some continental air. | 0:02:02 | 0:02:04 | |
So more sunshine than we've seen recently. | 0:02:04 | 0:02:06 | |
Still the risk of that rain further north. | 0:02:06 | 0:02:09 | |
But you can see that sunshine and the warmth | 0:02:09 | 0:02:11 | |
getting at least towards southern Scotland. | 0:02:11 | 0:02:13 | |
Wednesday at the moment looks like we might see | 0:02:13 | 0:02:15 | |
a breakdown in that heat | 0:02:15 | 0:02:17 | |
as we start to import the characteristics, if you like, | 0:02:17 | 0:02:20 | |
of that hot air, that tropical air. | 0:02:20 | 0:02:22 | |
So why are we seeing this happening through the early part of the week? | 0:02:22 | 0:02:26 | |
Well, it looks as if the Azores High will visit us for a couple of days | 0:02:26 | 0:02:29 | |
across the southern half of the country. | 0:02:29 | 0:02:31 | |
It's more likely, as you saw, | 0:02:31 | 0:02:33 | |
that we'll keep the refresher Atlantic air | 0:02:33 | 0:02:34 | |
and the risk of showery rain or longer spells of rain | 0:02:34 | 0:02:37 | |
for parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland. | 0:02:37 | 0:02:39 | |
Then from midweek onwards, the chances are, | 0:02:39 | 0:02:41 | |
that will move out of the way | 0:02:41 | 0:02:43 | |
and we'll scoop up some of that thundery air | 0:02:43 | 0:02:45 | |
that I talked about, and eventually, | 0:02:45 | 0:02:47 | |
that heat will break down and build some thunderstorms. | 0:02:47 | 0:02:49 | |
And that's because we're importing, as I mentioned, | 0:02:49 | 0:02:52 | |
some tropical air, coming across the continent, | 0:02:52 | 0:02:54 | |
so for the first couple of days, | 0:02:54 | 0:02:56 | |
it's just establishing itself across the UK. | 0:02:56 | 0:02:58 | |
And we think somewhere around the middle part of the week, | 0:02:58 | 0:03:01 | |
that's when we'll start to see the thundery breakdown. | 0:03:01 | 0:03:03 | |
Which is often the case here in the UK. | 0:03:03 | 0:03:06 | |
It could be a little later, it could be earlier, | 0:03:06 | 0:03:08 | |
but it does look as if we're in for a mostly dry | 0:03:08 | 0:03:10 | |
and warm start to the week, | 0:03:10 | 0:03:11 | |
especially across the southern half of the country, | 0:03:11 | 0:03:14 | |
with that risk of thunder, we think, midweek on, | 0:03:14 | 0:03:16 | |
and then after, probably something fresher moving in off the Atlantic. | 0:03:16 | 0:03:19 | |
It's one that we're watching | 0:03:19 | 0:03:21 | |
and we'll firm up on the day-to-day details as we go along. | 0:03:21 | 0:03:23 | |
There's more on the website. | 0:03:23 | 0:03:25 |