16/07/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead


16/07/2016

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It's mid-July, and we may at last this summer,

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in the next six to ten days,

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see temperatures nudging towards 30 degrees Celsius.

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Let's take a look at what's happening

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at the weekend first of all,

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where we've got a weather front dividing the humid air to the south,

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and the Azores High keeping things relatively settled,

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with the Atlantic westerly winds and showers to the north.

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Where that front grinds to a halt on Saturday,

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and we think northern England, North Wales,

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through parts of north-east England as well,

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it could be a pretty wet day.

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To the north of it, showers and a brisk wind.

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To the south of it, some humid air.

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Certainly looks drier for the golf up in Troon

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during the day on Saturday.

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Maybe a shower, but it'll be quite blustery.

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A fairly moderate to fresh breeze blowing here.

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And you can see there are some showers around

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for northern and western Scotland,

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particularly the Highlands and Islands,

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but it won't be as wet as it has been during the day on Friday.

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A few showers coming and going across Northern Ireland,

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but some sunshine here, too, and for the north of England.

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However, for the far south of northern England,

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across towards Lincolnshire, North Wales,

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we think that area could be quite wet for much of the day.

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And where the cloud breaks to the south,

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through the Midlands and East Anglia,

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we could have an isolated thunderstorm.

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And further south again, well, some warmth around,

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so it does look largely dry for the first Test

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as that continues at Lord's.

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Although there will be quite a bit of cloud,

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especially early in the day,

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and later in the day, as that weather front

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starts to push its away, at last, further southwards,

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and introduces more cloud,

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still that muggy feel towards the south.

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Further north, we've got increasing amounts of cloud

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on another weather front coming in to the north and the west.

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But in between, it looks drier on Sunday

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for some parts of northern England, North Wales.

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We'll see temperatures in this zone creeping up,

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so a drier second half of the weekend.

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And we'll still realise temperatures

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into the mid- to high teens further north.

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Into Monday. The remnants of that front is in the south,

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and what we'll find is the warm air starts to push back northwards.

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A lot of dry weather with it

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away from western Scotland and Northern Ireland.

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So for mostly England and Wales, it looks increasingly warm

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and increasingly sunny through Monday and Tuesday.

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We're starting to draw in some continental air.

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So more sunshine than we've seen recently.

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Still the risk of that rain further north.

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But you can see that sunshine and the warmth

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getting at least towards southern Scotland.

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Wednesday at the moment looks like we might see

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a breakdown in that heat

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as we start to import the characteristics, if you like,

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of that hot air, that tropical air.

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So why are we seeing this happening through the early part of the week?

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Well, it looks as if the Azores High will visit us for a couple of days

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across the southern half of the country.

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It's more likely, as you saw,

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that we'll keep the refresher Atlantic air

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and the risk of showery rain or longer spells of rain

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for parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland.

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Then from midweek onwards, the chances are,

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that will move out of the way

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and we'll scoop up some of that thundery air

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that I talked about, and eventually,

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that heat will break down and build some thunderstorms.

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And that's because we're importing, as I mentioned,

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some tropical air, coming across the continent,

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so for the first couple of days,

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it's just establishing itself across the UK.

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And we think somewhere around the middle part of the week,

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that's when we'll start to see the thundery breakdown.

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Which is often the case here in the UK.

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It could be a little later, it could be earlier,

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but it does look as if we're in for a mostly dry

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and warm start to the week,

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especially across the southern half of the country,

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with that risk of thunder, we think, midweek on,

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and then after, probably something fresher moving in off the Atlantic.

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It's one that we're watching

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and we'll firm up on the day-to-day details as we go along.

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There's more on the website.

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