31/07/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello. If you're a gardener or grower I suspect it's been

a frustrating summer so far, because for some it's either been

very wet then very dry, or vice versa.

Met Office statistics for July up to and including Thursday

suggest that at St Catherine's Point on the Isle of Wight

it's been the driest July on record -

just over 1mm of rain.

But in contrast, at Stornoway in north-west Scotland,

the third-wettest July on record.

This is the rainfall distribution across the UK in July.

Where you're in the brown you've been drier,

the blue wetter, the white close to average.

This is almost a complete reversal of fortunes compared with June,

where the south and south-east was wetter

and the north-west drier.

So technically overall summer so far may just seem like average rainfall,

but if you're growing something,

from one extreme to the other, that is quite difficult.

Is there any rain on the way to

those drier parts of southern England in July, as August begins?

You don't have to wait very long. Low pressure is spreading rain

into parts of England and Wales on Monday,

the Isle of Wight is about to get some rain.

So here it comes towards Wales, south-west England,

eventually extending later in the day

further east into parts of the Midlands and south-east England.

Northern England holding on to sunny spells,

much of Scotland, Stornoway dry with sunny spells bar the odd shower,

increasing cloud, mainly dry in Northern Ireland.

As we go through Monday evening and night, that rain reaches across

to eastern England, still avoiding the north of Northern England

and Northern Ireland. Scotland on Monday night having clear spells.

The chilliest weather here,

some of those in the countryside getting down to single figures.

But it's a warmer night across southern parts

with the cloud and outbreaks of rain.

Now, for Tuesday it's a complex pressure pattern and frontal set-up,

but this weather front is the main player,

extending northwards Tuesday into Wednesday,

taking some outbreaks of rain.

So on Tuesday, that will be pushing through parts of England and Wales

into Northern Ireland, but still Scotland mainly dry on Tuesday,

having the sunniest of the weather.

Now, with this weather front coming into southern parts

we start to introduce some more humid, warmer air,

so temperatures creep up a few degrees.

Fresh in Scotland, but then again, you've got some sunshine.

Tuesday into Wednesday, the weather front is pushing further north,

so that's going to take some outbreaks of rain at this stage

into Scotland, some rain on the way into Stornoway.

Low pressure close by Northern Ireland.

The threat of occasional rain in Northern England.

To the south of that, a few showers, a bit warmer still,

but watch out - the far south-east of England

there is a trailing weather front close by,

may threaten some heavier outbreaks of rain on Wednesday.

We'll keep you updated on that.

Then Thursday to Friday,

low pressure crossing the northern half of the UK,

taking at least showers, so Scotland, Northern Ireland,

Northern England mostly on Thursday, fewer showers to the south,

and those temperatures just starting to come down a couple of degrees,

more of a north-westerly flow starting to develop across the UK,

a process complete on Friday

with sunshine and scattered showers across the board.

Now, we've just a weekend, but this forecast looks further ahead

and is already looking ahead to the weekend coming.

May not want to, though, when you see this.

Another area of low pressure coming in,

and this looks like it's going to push some wetter and windier weather

across the UK on an active jet stream staying with us.

And the Atlantic influence with this jet stream

is the most favoured solution

as we look at our weather going into next week,

and that will maintain changeable weather -

occasional wet, occasional dry spells coming through,

and temperatures up and down but overall close to average.

There's a lesser solution - we may see something a bit more settled

across southern parts of the UK, so why not make a regular date

with this forecast to see how that story unfolds,

and the rest of August too? Bye-bye.