24/08/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello, it's a Bank Holiday weekend ahead for most parts of the

UK and when that happens the weather is never straightforward.

More on that in a moment because even before we get to the

weekend there's going to be some fun and games in the skies,

the heat and humidity likely to trigger some thunderstorms.

We could just start to see one or two heavy showers drifting up

into southern areas later on on Wednesday.

For Scotland and Northern Ireland, a much brighter day on Wednesday,

and a comfortable day here too, 19 or 20 degrees.

With more cloud generally across England and Wales

it won't be as hot but the heat and humidity continue.

Another sizzler - across the south-east and East Anglia

over 30 Celsius is possible.

And then the heat, the humidity, spark the thunder storms.

We'll see more of them developing on Wednesday evening,

pushing further north and throughout Thursday

the risk of some torrential downpours.

All that energy causing the potential for some pretty

violent storms. Difficult to say exactly where.

Parts of the Midlands, northern England could be most prone,

but we could see some across Wales, East Anglia too.

Still quite warm across the south-east but not as warm.

Temperatures generally elsewhere high teens, low 20s,

a fine day generally

on Thursday for Scotland and Northern Ireland.

And then into Thursday and Friday that weather front finally

takes its downpours away. Weak area of high pressure starts to build.

There is this area of low pressure. More on him in a moment.

Because the high promises for most of us a fine day on Friday.

Still with that weather front nearby and some warmth across the

south-east we may see one or two showers.

And there will be some showery rain and

a brisk breeze across the far north-west of Scotland.

But for most Friday is a fine day, a comfortable day again,

with temperatures at high teens or low 20s.

And then into the weekend.

I talked about that low-pressure system a moment or so ago and it's

gradually, and I do mean gradually, edging towards us.

As it approaches from the south-west it could draw up some warmth

once more from the near continent.

I talked yesterday about how the jet stream is in this more

elongated pattern and when that happens everything becomes

slow-moving and when things are slow-moving it adds

to the uncertainty.

In this little kink, that's the breeding ground for an area

of low pressure, which is just chugging towards the UK.

So it will slowly be bringing outbreaks of rain tracking

northwards but some uncertainty about the position of this

band of rain.

It could be further north, it could be further south.

As I said it may introduce some warmth again across the South.

We're reasonably happy that during the weekend at some point the

low will cross the UK.

So most of us will see some rain,

most likely on Sunday across Scotland and Northern Ireland,

heavy showers most likely across England and Wales.

So the weekend is complex.

It's not a complete write-off by any means.

There will be some warmth and there will be some sunshine too but

I think we'll all also need to be prepared for a spell of rain.

Into Monday, Bank Holiday, except in Scotland of course,

it does look a little drier. Fewer showers? Why so?

Finally that low-pressure starts to pull away and we've got

a little bump, a little ridge of high pressure

for Bank Holiday Monday.

How long will it last?

Not too long because there's more low-pressure systems close by.

Looking further ahead into next week, I talked about the jet

stream in this more wavy-like pattern through the weekend,

into next week we're back to a more standard pattern, you might say.

Not a particularly strong jet but when it's in this kind of position

it drives low-pressure systems across the northern half of the UK.

So here we are more likely to see more changeable weather.

There will be some brisk breezes and some outbreaks of rain but

further south, promising signs next week.

To the south of that jet stream we should see some fine

and settled weather. Goodbye.