24/08/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello. The weekend - it's complicated

and not just because it's a bank holiday

in some parts of the UK and not in others.

No, the weather is going to be complex

through the long weekend.

Even before we get there,

there's going to be fun and games on Thursday

chasing around thunderstorms,

the potential after the recent heat

for these storms to be quite violent,

possibly causing some issues.

Maybe some more persistent rain

developing across northern England and north Wales.

Scotland and Northern Ireland, another fine day.

A few showers drifting into the west later on.

Under that area of rain and close to the east coast,

it'll be a cool day.

It'll still be warm and humid across the south-east,

but not as hot as Wednesday. Still, though,

the heat and humidity likely to be causing

further thundery downpours,

especially across eastern areas,

for a time on Thursday night before they finally clear,

taking the mist and low cloud away

from North Sea coasts, too.

Still, some warmth and humidity

in the extreme south-east

may cause one or two showers on Friday

and there'll be showers across the far north-west,

but, for most, well, Friday's a fine day.

Dry, bright, sunny spells,

temperatures about average

and a lot less humid for most of England and Wales.

That's because of high pressure

which doesn't hang on for the weekend.

A low influencing from the south-west,

another one developing,

a weather front pushing northwards and intensifying.

It's a warm front

so again it's drawing up the warmth,

the heat from France and Spain,

the humidity will rise again

through the weekend and that will spark,

potentially, quite a heavy band of rain.

Now, because everything is slow moving,

there's going to be uncertainty this weekend.

We are expecting a weather front to develop.

It could be a little further north or further south,

but for central areas,

there could well be some very heavy rain.

To the north of that,

something a little drier and brighter.

Further south, sunny spells and quite warm,

but there's still the potential for some showers.

I talked to you about the weekend being complicated.

Just look at the pressure pattern for Sunday -

weather fronts, low pressure systems

all over the place, drifting across the UK.

Because they're slow moving,

again it's going to make a big difference

to the weather.

That weather front could be grinding to a halt somewhere.

Again, it could be a little further north or further south.

Now, rather counter-intuitively,

we're MORE confident about the weather for Monday.

As the low pulls away,

we've got a ridge of high pressure moving in

so Monday's weather looks half-decent.

A bank holiday for all except Scotland,

there will be showers,

particularly across eastern areas,

and it will be cooler, a lot fresher once more

as the warmth from the weekend disappears.

So, there's uncertainty about the weekend

and that ties into the jet stream,

that fast-moving ribbon of air high up,

and that's because it's in this position,

this amplified, waving position.

That's why things are slow-moving,

that's why there's uncertainty.

As we go beyond the weekend into next week,

the jet stream takes on

a more classic approach,

drifting its low pressure systems

across northern Britain

so that's where we'll see more cloud,

outbreaks of rain, more changeable weather.

To the south of the jet stream,

well, it looks like next week,

that's where we'll see the best

of the fine and bright and largely dry weather.

Beyond the middle of next week,

things could get even more interesting

and, for that, we need to look a long way away.

This area of cloud is Storm Gaston.

Now, it's a long way from any land,

it's not expected to directly influence anything,

but, as we go through the latter part of this week

and into next week,

it will be drifting its way northwards.

It could well be intensifying,

but that's not the point.

It's a source of energy pushing northwards

and it will start to influence our weather patterns

because it may start to influence our jet stream

so at the end of next week,

Gaston could be making things even more complicated.

We'll be keeping an eye on that

and of course we'll keep you updated on the weekend. Goodbye.

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