17/09/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead

Interesting week.

Not the dramas of heat and heavy rain over the last day or so but

some interesting developments in the jet stream over the week ahead

in this part of the Northern Hemisphere which will make

forecasting quite challenging. More of that in a moment.

As far as the weekend's concerned, one thing we can be sure of,

it's going to be a fresh-feeling couple of days and certainly

a chilly start to your Saturday in many areas, with temperatures

in rural spots well down into single figures under clear skies.

The exception across some eastern counties of England,

where we've still got some damp, dreary weather,

and if anything, that's going to start to edge westwards into

some central areas as we go through the day, with the odd spot of rain.

Best of the sunshine will be further west.

A lovely afternoon to come for Scotland, Northern Ireland,

the more north-western parts of England and down across Wales, too.

A delightful afternoon to come here with light winds,

sunshine and temperatures up into the mid-to-high teens.

South-west England doing pretty well too.

But for the Midlands, north-east England, south-east England,

some of that cloudy, damp, chilly, dreary weather.

It might brighten up across East Anglia but by the same token,

we could see the odd sharp shower developing here, too, because

this weather front really never dies a death.

It's still there as we go into Sunday,

so a lot of cloud in association with that and the odd shower.

Another front then enters the fray across Northern Ireland

and Western Scotland, with some wet weather here.

Somewhere in between, there's going to be some dry, bright weather

through this central slice of the UK.

Temperatures again much fresher than they have been.

Through the early part of next week, we're going to see fronts trying

to come in off the Atlantic and most of the oomph of those fronts

will be across the more north-western parts of the UK,

but this one gets stranded across central areas on Monday

with some outbreaks of rain.

On either side, drier, maybe the odd shower across the south-east,

probably some of the best of the brightness

across parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Now, that front tends to break up in situ across England and Wales.

Still the odd shower left behind.

The next weather front not far off from Northern Ireland

and Western Scotland but actually on Tuesday, plenty of dry weather here.

Then on Wednesday, that next frontal system starts to edge in

across Northern Ireland and Scotland, so, as I say,

it's the more north-western parts of the UK which are likely to see

most of the wet weather through the early-to-mid part of next week.

Further south and east, drier, brighter, pleasant enough

with light winds, though not the heat we've seen in recent days.

Temperatures mostly stuck in the mid-to-high teens.

If you've been watching, I've been talking about

the fact that the Arctic is getting colder and colder now

as we approach the Equinox, with lobes of cold air pushing out

of Canada, through Greenland and into the Atlantic,

meeting lobes of warm tropical air coming up from the south,

and where those two meet, where they clash, that tends to rev up

the jet stream - the stronger the temperature gradient,

the stronger the jet stream -

and we'll get a pretty strong jet later next week.

It's going to carry frontal systems into those more

north-western parts of the UK, so that's where most of the rain

will be through the mid-to-latter part of next week.

Further south and east, though, that jet really getting deflected away,

and the reason for that lies to our east, because we have a block here

in the atmosphere which is kind of fending off this Atlantic jet,

and as long as it does that, that's going to keep

the more southern and eastern areas somewhat drier.

So we've got that battle between the Atlantic jet against

the Continental block, which means western areas will be wettest,

eastern areas will be driest, we think.

We'll update you again tomorrow.

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