21/09/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello, there. Next week, we may have some air from a tropical origin.

Not unusual for this time of the year,

but it can cause some headaches for the computer models.

We'll get to that in a moment.

First of all, we're looking to the west

to see a bit of a change coming in on Wednesday.

This weather front area of low pressure

eventually bringing some wet and windier weather.

Ahead of it, some mist,

fog and low cloud breaking up,

brightening up fairly quickly.

Sunny spells developing,

a few showers getting drawn up

on this freshening southerly airflow

ahead of those stronger winds

and the rain that arrives

in Northern Ireland in the afternoon.

Two or three hours of rain

just knocking on the door

of the western mainland of Scotland by four o'clock.

A few showers ahead of that in Scotland,

some sunshine, too,

and that's really the way of it

across England and Wales.

Probably more bands of showers

across England and Wales in the afternoon,

but still very hit and miss.

There'll be some sunshine around as well.

For many southern and eastern areas,

it may still be dry in the afternoon

and probably a warmer, brighter day

than it was on Tuesday

for East Yorkshire and Lincolnshire.

By the time we get to Thursday,

that weather front,

there isn't much on it at all.

Very few showers to run eastwards

across England and Wales,

just a bit of cloud behind it,

some showers into the north-west later on,

but for the autumn equinox,

which is Thursday, of course,

equal day and night,

there should be a fair bit of sunshine around

and lots of dry weather, too,

and in the sunshine,

it should feel quite pleasant, too.

Now, as we head towards the end of the week,

high pressure tries to build up from the south,

but it doesn't really make it

because we've got a deepening area of low pressure

that's racing in from off the Atlantic

and that will bring increasingly wet weather

on Friday to Scotland and Northern Ireland,

the winds really picking up as well.

Freshening winds across the border,

but away from the north-west,

some sunshine and dry weather, too.

Now, during the weekend, Saturday,

we start to see this band of rain,

heavy at times,

easing across Scotland and Northern Ireland

and pushing into western parts of England and Wales,

ahead of it some sunshine.

Uncertainties as to how quickly this rain

will push its way eastwards

across the UK during Saturday.

At the moment,

it looks like the worst of that rain

should be clearing away from the south-east

early on Sunday,

but with low pressure close to the north-west,

this is where we will focus a lot of showers

and it's still going to be windy on Sunday.

Some strong,

perhaps again some locally gale force winds,

but some sunshine away from the showers.

Now, I mentioned the tropical air

and we look into the Atlantic,

where we've got not just one,

but TWO tropical storms a little earlier on.

This is the one that we probably need to focus on.

Karl could actually become a hurricane.

Expected to track towards Bermuda,

this is where things could be, though,

by Sunday and Karl or what's left of Karl

likely to get swept up

by our strengthening jet stream

across the Atlantic.

Uncertainties to what happens to Karl,

but, at the moment, it looks like

it could get swallowed up

by a deeper area of low pressure

towards the north-west

and likely to bring in some warmer air for a while

into the early part of next week.

We'll see how things play out,

but unlikely to affect our general theme next week -

one of much more unsettled weather

across the north-west

with some outbreaks of rain

and the strongest winds

where towards the south-east, yes,

there'll still be some rain at times,

but, here, it won't be as wet.

It should be drier, brighter,

some sunshine and a bit warmer as well,

but, as I say, all to play for.