29/09/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead

Although we haven't got the official statistics for September 2016,

you don't need me to stand here and tell you it was a warm month,

a record-breaking month around the 13th of September.

We even had some warmth

towards the end of the month as well.

Now, at this time of year,

average temperatures should be

sitting around mid- to high teens.

But just take a look at Wednesday's high.

With a little sunshine, we got some warmth,

22 degrees in some places,

peaking at 24 across the Kent coast

at 75 Fahrenheit.

A fresher story up into the far north of Scotland

because of cloud, wind and rain

and that cooler air will start to descend

a little bit further south

as we move towards the weekend

so that could be a bit of a shock to the system.

Gales around first thing on Thursday morning,

severe gales for a time

in the far north of Scotland

and although the winds will ease,

it's going to be a blustery afternoon

with plenty of squally showers in the north and west.

The rain easing across the south-east corner,

brighter skies, but still a blustery afternoon

and because of the strength of the wind,

feeling noticeably fresher already,

12 to 20 degrees the afternoon highs.

As we move out of Thursday,

we still keep the isobars across the UK

which means, basically, it will stay pretty breezy

through the night and into Friday.

Friday looks like a typical autumnal day -

blustery, plenty of showers coming in,

but also tinged with some sunshine,

but feeling fresher - 13 to 19 degrees

so pretty much around average

for this time of year.

As we move out of Friday

into the start of the weekend, though,

that cool theme set to continue, particularly on Saturday,

because we could see some showers or longer spells of rain,

but hopefully Sunday will see an improving picture.

More in the way of sunshine coming through

and pleasant enough.

But the wind's a feature,

particularly through the Channel coast,

driving in some showers or longer spells of rain

and underneath the cloud and rain,

12 or 13 degrees is going to feel pretty miserable.

The area of low pressure

will drift its way steadily eastwards

through Saturday night into Sunday,

allowing this little bump in the isobars

to quieten things down before the next system

arrives early on into the next week.

So it does mean that on Sunday morning,

we could start off on a chilly note

with a touch of frost in sheltered areas

so, yes, a chilly start to Sunday,

but a quieter one,

dry with some sunshine coming through.

For most of us,

it will stay dry throughout the day

with highs likely around 13 to 18 Celsius,

but with a little more sunshine,

it shouldn't feel too bad.

As we move out of Sunday into Monday,

here's that next area of low pressure

arriving from the west,

bringing yet more wet and windy weather,

but notice how it just sits up

into the far north-west of the country.

The south-east sees a return to southerly winds

so we could see temperatures a degree or so up.

So, what's happening in the longer term period?

The jet stream has been fairly active

in recent days and when we get

this fast-moving jet,

we tend to get a kink in it

and it tends to then kick the areas of low pressure

up into the north-west,

allowing high pressure

to dominate down into the south-east.

That's been the story and that looks likely

to continue to happen

for the early half of next week,

but as we move later on

into the six- to ten-day period,

it looks potentially as we lose the high

and there is a possibility

that the jet stream will weaken slightly

and then it becomes a little flabbier

and that means that the low pressures

will start to drift right across the country

and it could be a little more unsettled for all of us at times.

More details coming up tomorrow.