04/10/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hi, there. Time for a look at the weather over the next week or so.

Now, normally, our weather comes in from the west, doesn't it?

Not for the next few days.

For the next few days, our weather's going to be coming in from the east,

and the reason for that is a huge, great block in the atmosphere,

and that's preventing the jet stream from coming in off the Atlantic,

and driving rain-bearing weather fronts in our direction.

They're getting fended to the north and to the south of us

by that block in the atmosphere,

and a big area of high pressure

is going to be dominant for several days to come,

and circulating around that high pressure,

winds coming in from an easterly direction.

In fact, that easterly wind will be with us on Tuesday.

It's a dry wind, which is good news if you want fine weather,

because, bar the odd isolated shower,

it should be dry throughout the day.

Some areas of low cloud around,

particularly near some eastern coasts,

but west will be best for sunshine across Scotland.

This snapshot for four o'clock in the afternoon,

and most of us will be set fair.

It'll feel quite pleasant in that October sunshine -

temperatures up into the mid to high teens,

though that wind will be quite brisk,

particularly down towards the south coast,

so you'll have to get out of that breeze,

and in the sunshine to benefit, with that warmth.

So, a fine day to come on Tuesday.

A fine day for some on Wednesday.

Subtle differences - bit more cloud in the sky,

bit more of a breeze, temperatures a bit lower, as well,

particularly near that east coast,

where you get exposed to that wind coming off the North Sea.

The high pressure is still there through the middle part of the week,

but we're going to start to see increasingly chilly air

coming down around that high.

This air originates, actually, in Arctic Russia -

don't get too worried, it's not going to be THAT cold,

but a blob of blue, nonetheless,

wafting its way in our direction,

so, the message is, through the second half of this week,

it's going to start to feel quite chilly,

particularly where you keep a lot of cloud,

and that's most likely across the more central and eastern areas.

Thick enough to give, perhaps, the odd shower.

Still a lot of dry weather,

western areas probably seeing the best of the sunshine.

So, to sum up this week, then,

most of us will stay dry.

That breeze will be a feature,

and that breeze will turn increasingly chilly with time.

It's still there on Friday. Again, a fair bit of cloud,

and that cloud will produce a few showers scattered around -

again, I must emphasise that most places will stay dry.

If you're lucky, you'll see some sunshine,

but a chill to that wind, for sure.

Similar story on Saturday, really.

Difficult to pick out the detail at this range,

but the main themes are, still that easterly wind,

still that block to the Atlantic weather system,

so most places dry, the odd shower.

What's going to change that?

Well, obviously, we're keeping a very close eye

on Hurricane Matthew.

It's roaring its way up through the Caribbean,

leaving a trail of destruction, I'm afraid.

From the likes of Haiti

it's going to continue to move its way northwards.

Powerful winds, massive storm surge,

huge amounts of rain.

Through the Bahamas, we think,

and then, later on in the week,

it'll be parked just to the east

of the mainland of the USA.

"So, what?" I hear you say.

Well, the significance of Matthew

is that eventually it might start to interact

with our jet stream.

Now, at the moment, that jet stream is blocked,

as I say, as it hits the UK,

it diverts to the north and the south,

and, like a stone in the water,

we've got this huge, great block to the east of us,

preventing those rain-bearing weather fronts

from coming in our direction,

so, high pressure remains in control.

The big question mark is,

how will Matthew interact with that jet stream?

Like flicking a skipping rope,

it might have some downstream effects,

which might break that block.

But, for the time being, it stays chilly, with those brisk winds.

Always the best of the sunshine across the west, but most of us dry.

We'll update you again tomorrow.