15/10/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead


15/10/2016

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Hello there and welcome to

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a look at the longer-term forecast.

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First of all, let's talk about

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what's happening at the moment.

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We've had what's called a blocking high

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for the last week or two

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and these quite keen easterly winds.

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That blocking high has prevented

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the low pressure coming in off

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the Atlantic, our normal pattern

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if you like, but this weekend

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that high pressure retrogresses,

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in come those low pressures off the Atlantic,

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so we switch an easterly, chilly wind

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for a southerly.

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So we'll see some sunshine, however,

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it will stay unsettled,

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with low pressure sitting over the country.

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It's just that it will feel a little less cold.

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Although the exception to the rule

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is Scotland on Saturday,

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we've got that driving easterly wind,

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heavy rain persisting in central

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and northern areas for much of the day.

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Heavy showers working up the west of the country

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into Northern Ireland and northern England,

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and later in the day some

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really intense downpours,

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torrential downpours, hail, thunder,

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squally winds following into the south.

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Now, in between there will be drier,

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sunnier weather and it will feel warmer,

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look at those temperatures,

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15 to 18, considerably higher than this week.

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The changes on Sunday are for

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some drier weather for the north

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and east of Scotland at last,

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the rain disappearing further north,

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but elsewhere the showers become more widespread,

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and given the energy around

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our shores in the sea at the moment,

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that's where we'll see the heavier showers,

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around the coast, but again,

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given some sunshine in between,

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we could see 13s to 17s.

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That area of low pressure bringing

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the showers or longer spells of rain this weekend

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migrates a little further northwards

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into the start of the new week,

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so the westerly wind will dominate,

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bringing in showers, and with low pressure

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near the north-west, that's where we'll see

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the majority of the showers on Monday.

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Always just a chance for eastern areas,

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but again, look at those temperatures

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given the wind direction.

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Tuesday, we see a subtle change

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in our wind direction.

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We get this weather front coming in

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and behind it, as the high pressure

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starts to build,

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the north-westerly wind comes in.

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So we will see a dip in temperature, I think,

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through the course of Tuesday, and also,

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you may have noticed that

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weather system pushes the increased risk

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of showers into eastern areas as well.

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Still, there's dry weather between the showers,

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and they'll become fewer

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and further between by Wednesday.

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Still that chilly breeze.

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So why is it looking more settled as

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we head towards the middle of the week?

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Well, it's because we've got pressure building.

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This time building in from the Atlantic,

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not from the east, from Scandinavia.

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So we'll keep the north-westerly wind

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for a time but we will cut off

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the feed of showers,

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just down the north sea we're

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going to have that low pressure,

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and also further west,

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the remnants of Nicole

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causing us some issues,

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pushing all that warm air

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in the jet stream northwards.

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Which means high pressure

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will build ahead of it,

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and the low pressure could

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well continue to dive down

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the north sea as we saw,

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so allowing more showers into eastern areas,

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with the more settled weather

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across the south and west.

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Later in the week, as Nicole buckles

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our jet stream even further,

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it pushes high pressure

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towards central and eastern areas,

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and low pressure up towards

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the north and west of the UK.

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So subtle changes as the dry weather

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establishes itself further eastwards,

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and thereafter we could go back to

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the blocking high pressure from the east again.

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But high pressure at this time

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of year, from the east or west,

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means chilly, often foggy mornings

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followed by quite sunny

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and pleasant afternoons.

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So that may well be what we'll see

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on the cards later next week.

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Let's summarise that,

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lots going on.

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It will effectively

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turn cooler midweek for a time,

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the driest weather at that stage

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in the south and west.

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There is a lot of uncertainty later on,

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but at this stage it looks set to

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get drier in the east,

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but with some foggy mornings

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and fine afternoons.

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