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Hello there and welcome to | 0:00:03 | 0:00:04 | |
a look at the longer-term forecast. | 0:00:04 | 0:00:05 | |
First of all, let's talk about | 0:00:05 | 0:00:06 | |
what's happening at the moment. | 0:00:06 | 0:00:08 | |
We've had what's called a blocking high | 0:00:08 | 0:00:10 | |
for the last week or two | 0:00:10 | 0:00:11 | |
and these quite keen easterly winds. | 0:00:11 | 0:00:13 | |
That blocking high has prevented | 0:00:13 | 0:00:14 | |
the low pressure coming in off | 0:00:14 | 0:00:16 | |
the Atlantic, our normal pattern | 0:00:16 | 0:00:18 | |
if you like, but this weekend | 0:00:18 | 0:00:19 | |
that high pressure retrogresses, | 0:00:19 | 0:00:21 | |
in come those low pressures off the Atlantic, | 0:00:21 | 0:00:23 | |
so we switch an easterly, chilly wind | 0:00:23 | 0:00:25 | |
for a southerly. | 0:00:25 | 0:00:27 | |
So we'll see some sunshine, however, | 0:00:27 | 0:00:29 | |
it will stay unsettled, | 0:00:29 | 0:00:30 | |
with low pressure sitting over the country. | 0:00:30 | 0:00:32 | |
It's just that it will feel a little less cold. | 0:00:32 | 0:00:36 | |
Although the exception to the rule | 0:00:36 | 0:00:37 | |
is Scotland on Saturday, | 0:00:37 | 0:00:39 | |
we've got that driving easterly wind, | 0:00:39 | 0:00:41 | |
heavy rain persisting in central | 0:00:41 | 0:00:43 | |
and northern areas for much of the day. | 0:00:43 | 0:00:45 | |
Heavy showers working up the west of the country | 0:00:45 | 0:00:47 | |
into Northern Ireland and northern England, | 0:00:47 | 0:00:49 | |
and later in the day some | 0:00:49 | 0:00:50 | |
really intense downpours, | 0:00:50 | 0:00:52 | |
torrential downpours, hail, thunder, | 0:00:52 | 0:00:54 | |
squally winds following into the south. | 0:00:54 | 0:00:56 | |
Now, in between there will be drier, | 0:00:56 | 0:00:58 | |
sunnier weather and it will feel warmer, | 0:00:58 | 0:01:00 | |
look at those temperatures, | 0:01:00 | 0:01:01 | |
15 to 18, considerably higher than this week. | 0:01:01 | 0:01:03 | |
The changes on Sunday are for | 0:01:03 | 0:01:04 | |
some drier weather for the north | 0:01:04 | 0:01:06 | |
and east of Scotland at last, | 0:01:06 | 0:01:07 | |
the rain disappearing further north, | 0:01:07 | 0:01:09 | |
but elsewhere the showers become more widespread, | 0:01:09 | 0:01:11 | |
and given the energy around | 0:01:11 | 0:01:12 | |
our shores in the sea at the moment, | 0:01:12 | 0:01:14 | |
that's where we'll see the heavier showers, | 0:01:14 | 0:01:16 | |
around the coast, but again, | 0:01:16 | 0:01:17 | |
given some sunshine in between, | 0:01:17 | 0:01:19 | |
we could see 13s to 17s. | 0:01:19 | 0:01:22 | |
That area of low pressure bringing | 0:01:22 | 0:01:23 | |
the showers or longer spells of rain this weekend | 0:01:23 | 0:01:25 | |
migrates a little further northwards | 0:01:25 | 0:01:27 | |
into the start of the new week, | 0:01:27 | 0:01:29 | |
so the westerly wind will dominate, | 0:01:29 | 0:01:30 | |
bringing in showers, and with low pressure | 0:01:30 | 0:01:32 | |
near the north-west, that's where we'll see | 0:01:32 | 0:01:34 | |
the majority of the showers on Monday. | 0:01:34 | 0:01:36 | |
Always just a chance for eastern areas, | 0:01:36 | 0:01:38 | |
but again, look at those temperatures | 0:01:38 | 0:01:40 | |
given the wind direction. | 0:01:40 | 0:01:41 | |
Tuesday, we see a subtle change | 0:01:41 | 0:01:43 | |
in our wind direction. | 0:01:43 | 0:01:44 | |
We get this weather front coming in | 0:01:44 | 0:01:46 | |
and behind it, as the high pressure | 0:01:46 | 0:01:47 | |
starts to build, | 0:01:47 | 0:01:48 | |
the north-westerly wind comes in. | 0:01:48 | 0:01:50 | |
So we will see a dip in temperature, I think, | 0:01:50 | 0:01:52 | |
through the course of Tuesday, and also, | 0:01:52 | 0:01:55 | |
you may have noticed that | 0:01:55 | 0:01:56 | |
weather system pushes the increased risk | 0:01:56 | 0:01:58 | |
of showers into eastern areas as well. | 0:01:58 | 0:02:01 | |
Still, there's dry weather between the showers, | 0:02:01 | 0:02:03 | |
and they'll become fewer | 0:02:03 | 0:02:04 | |
and further between by Wednesday. | 0:02:04 | 0:02:06 | |
Still that chilly breeze. | 0:02:06 | 0:02:08 | |
So why is it looking more settled as | 0:02:08 | 0:02:10 | |
we head towards the middle of the week? | 0:02:10 | 0:02:12 | |
Well, it's because we've got pressure building. | 0:02:12 | 0:02:16 | |
This time building in from the Atlantic, | 0:02:16 | 0:02:18 | |
not from the east, from Scandinavia. | 0:02:18 | 0:02:20 | |
So we'll keep the north-westerly wind | 0:02:20 | 0:02:22 | |
for a time but we will cut off | 0:02:22 | 0:02:23 | |
the feed of showers, | 0:02:23 | 0:02:24 | |
just down the north sea we're | 0:02:24 | 0:02:25 | |
going to have that low pressure, | 0:02:25 | 0:02:26 | |
and also further west, | 0:02:26 | 0:02:28 | |
the remnants of Nicole | 0:02:28 | 0:02:29 | |
causing us some issues, | 0:02:29 | 0:02:31 | |
pushing all that warm air | 0:02:31 | 0:02:32 | |
in the jet stream northwards. | 0:02:32 | 0:02:34 | |
Which means high pressure | 0:02:34 | 0:02:35 | |
will build ahead of it, | 0:02:35 | 0:02:37 | |
and the low pressure could | 0:02:37 | 0:02:38 | |
well continue to dive down | 0:02:38 | 0:02:40 | |
the north sea as we saw, | 0:02:40 | 0:02:41 | |
so allowing more showers into eastern areas, | 0:02:41 | 0:02:43 | |
with the more settled weather | 0:02:43 | 0:02:44 | |
across the south and west. | 0:02:44 | 0:02:46 | |
Later in the week, as Nicole buckles | 0:02:46 | 0:02:48 | |
our jet stream even further, | 0:02:48 | 0:02:49 | |
it pushes high pressure | 0:02:49 | 0:02:51 | |
towards central and eastern areas, | 0:02:51 | 0:02:53 | |
and low pressure up towards | 0:02:53 | 0:02:54 | |
the north and west of the UK. | 0:02:54 | 0:02:56 | |
So subtle changes as the dry weather | 0:02:56 | 0:02:58 | |
establishes itself further eastwards, | 0:02:58 | 0:02:59 | |
and thereafter we could go back to | 0:02:59 | 0:03:01 | |
the blocking high pressure from the east again. | 0:03:01 | 0:03:04 | |
But high pressure at this time | 0:03:04 | 0:03:05 | |
of year, from the east or west, | 0:03:05 | 0:03:07 | |
means chilly, often foggy mornings | 0:03:07 | 0:03:09 | |
followed by quite sunny | 0:03:09 | 0:03:11 | |
and pleasant afternoons. | 0:03:11 | 0:03:12 | |
So that may well be what we'll see | 0:03:12 | 0:03:14 | |
on the cards later next week. | 0:03:14 | 0:03:16 | |
Let's summarise that, | 0:03:16 | 0:03:17 | |
lots going on. | 0:03:17 | 0:03:19 | |
It will effectively | 0:03:19 | 0:03:20 | |
turn cooler midweek for a time, | 0:03:20 | 0:03:21 | |
the driest weather at that stage | 0:03:21 | 0:03:23 | |
in the south and west. | 0:03:23 | 0:03:24 | |
There is a lot of uncertainty later on, | 0:03:24 | 0:03:25 | |
but at this stage it looks set to | 0:03:25 | 0:03:27 | |
get drier in the east, | 0:03:27 | 0:03:28 | |
but with some foggy mornings | 0:03:28 | 0:03:29 | |
and fine afternoons. | 0:03:29 | 0:03:31 |