17/10/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hi. We're over halfway through the month and it's turning out to be

a peculiar October. A month often associated with westerly winds

will probably end up

being dominated by easterly winds,

despite the fact that, temporarily,

we've got those westerlies in, courtesy of low pressure

to the northwest. The winds circulate in this direction

around low pressure hence that feed of westerlies.

And those westerlies are carrying some showers,

particularly across the north and the west,

so this fairly standard weather for the time of year.

This is where the heaviest showers will be.

Far fewer showers on Monday further south and east

and with plenty of sunshine here,

as we've seen in the last couple of days, temperatures

doing pretty well, up into the mid to high teens,

whereas with the frequent showers

further north and west it'll feel cooler.

And then we're going to see a change in the weather,

courtesy of a cold front coming in from the northwest.

It's going to bring a band of quite heavy showery rain

down across the country.

Could be a wet start on Tuesday morning

across parts of southern and eastern England.

That'll clear through but because

it's a cold front, behind that,

despite some sunshine,

temperatures will be lower by a few degrees.

You'll notice that, not helped by a brisk wind,

and a cluster of showery rain

pushing down out of Scotland

into northern England,

so just 10 or 11 degrees here.

I want to take you out into the Atlantic.

If you were watching yesterday I mentioned Hurricane Nicole.

It's still there, it's been there for a week or two now.

Somebody once said, "Don't worry, it's not heading in our direction,"

but it could have an indirect impact on us because as a deep area

of low pressure, as it heads northwards,

it's going to push a lot of energy northwards as well

and the downstream effect of that

is to build this area

of high pressure closer to home.

And that will be a beneficial effect

from Nicole to those areas

underneath that high pressure,

and that's the more western parts of the UK.

The weather settling down here with lighter winds,

mostly dry weather and hopefully some sunshine.

Whereas closest to low pressure,

out across the low countries here,

we're going to have some showers,

particularly in the east coast,

a blustery wind and feeling quite chilly.

Overnight later on this week,

where the skies are clear, and that's most likely

across western areas, so the map turns blue,

yes, there will be some frost around and probably

some patches of fog later on this week,

which could be slow to clear.

But once more it's these more northern and western

parts on Thursday which will see the best

of the dry and bright weather,

again with light winds but still that brisk wind

across eastern counties

and still carrying some showers. So not very pleasant.

So we end the week with those easterlies

beginning to return around a low pressure

in the near continent,

the high pressure to the north and west.

On Friday this is the way the chart looks -

easterlies bringing showers along

eastern coastal areas

and some will spread a little inland.

The best of the dry and bright weather looks

like being further west

but there will be some patches of fog overnight

and some frost.

Why are we having this peculiar October?

It's all down to the jet stream

and this normally meanders its way out

of America and across the Atlantic

but what we're seeing,

and what we've seen quite a bit in recent weeks,

is this jet starts to split.

We get a split in the jet stream

so the energy tends to split as well

and that prevents these rain-bearing weather fronts

from the Atlantic from making inroads into the UK.

We're kind of back to square one now

with surface easterly winds

coming in across the country.

Easterlies dominate once more

through next weekend.

It does look as if that's going to continue

into the early part of next week with that jet stream blocked,

those chilly easterly winds. Will the rain get in from the west?

That is the big question mark. We'll keep a close eye on things

and I'll be here to update you again this time tomorrow.