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It's been a bit of an odd month so far, | 0:00:03 | 0:00:04 | |
not really following the normal pattern. | 0:00:04 | 0:00:07 | |
We've had an absence of westerly winds, | 0:00:07 | 0:00:09 | |
so areas that would normally be very wet at this time of the year, | 0:00:09 | 0:00:12 | |
such as Stornoway, have had significantly less rainfall. | 0:00:12 | 0:00:15 | |
It's been drier than average in Pershore as well. | 0:00:15 | 0:00:18 | |
Further east we have had some showers. | 0:00:18 | 0:00:20 | |
Some areas, such as Weybourne, have had more than average rainfall. | 0:00:20 | 0:00:23 | |
But the showers have been hit and miss | 0:00:23 | 0:00:25 | |
and they've been driven on by an easterly wind. | 0:00:25 | 0:00:27 | |
Now, we start the week ahead with an easterly breeze, | 0:00:27 | 0:00:31 | |
quite a chilly start as well. | 0:00:31 | 0:00:33 | |
But from midweek onwards things will turn milder, | 0:00:33 | 0:00:36 | |
less mist and fog and frost, because we'll get a westerly wind. | 0:00:36 | 0:00:40 | |
We start Monday, though, | 0:00:40 | 0:00:41 | |
with cloud across more southern parts of the UK with some outbreaks | 0:00:41 | 0:00:45 | |
of showery rain across south-west Wales, south-west England. | 0:00:45 | 0:00:48 | |
There's the threat of some torrential downpours | 0:00:48 | 0:00:50 | |
and thunderstorms too. | 0:00:50 | 0:00:51 | |
For northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland, | 0:00:51 | 0:00:53 | |
after that chilly start with some patchy fog | 0:00:53 | 0:00:55 | |
there'll be some sunny spells. | 0:00:55 | 0:00:57 | |
Fewer showers, lighter winds in eastern Scotland - | 0:00:57 | 0:00:59 | |
the showers are really just bumping onto the coast. | 0:00:59 | 0:01:02 | |
As we head through the evening, though, | 0:01:02 | 0:01:04 | |
temperatures fall away quite sharply in the north | 0:01:04 | 0:01:06 | |
with the clearer skies, a frost developing. | 0:01:06 | 0:01:08 | |
Further south we hang onto enough cloud to keep the temperatures up, | 0:01:08 | 0:01:12 | |
but as well as the frost, particularly in Scotland, | 0:01:12 | 0:01:14 | |
we're going to find some patches of fog as well. | 0:01:14 | 0:01:17 | |
Now, eventually we'll start to see some changes | 0:01:17 | 0:01:19 | |
as these weather fronts encroach from the Atlantic. | 0:01:19 | 0:01:23 | |
But pressure's quite high and there's really | 0:01:23 | 0:01:25 | |
no wind to speak of for most of Tuesday. | 0:01:25 | 0:01:28 | |
That's why we've got the frosty and foggy start for many northern areas. | 0:01:28 | 0:01:31 | |
That fog may linger for most of the morning, | 0:01:31 | 0:01:34 | |
but then we'll get some sunshine coming through. | 0:01:34 | 0:01:36 | |
Further south the clouds should be thinner, | 0:01:36 | 0:01:38 | |
the downpours having cleared away from the south-west. | 0:01:38 | 0:01:40 | |
Most places will be dry. | 0:01:40 | 0:01:41 | |
15 degrees, perhaps, across southern parts of the UK, | 0:01:41 | 0:01:44 | |
11 or 12 in the north. | 0:01:44 | 0:01:47 | |
Wednesday we start to see a change in the wind direction - | 0:01:47 | 0:01:50 | |
a westerly arriving, much stronger across northern parts of the UK. | 0:01:50 | 0:01:53 | |
This weather front not bringing an awful lot of rain but | 0:01:53 | 0:01:56 | |
signalling a significant change with temperatures on the rise. | 0:01:56 | 0:01:59 | |
Why is that happening? | 0:01:59 | 0:02:01 | |
Look out to the other side of the Atlantic and off the eastern | 0:02:01 | 0:02:04 | |
side of Canada there's a plunge of colder air. | 0:02:04 | 0:02:07 | |
Ahead of that, closer to us, we've got warmer air aloft | 0:02:07 | 0:02:11 | |
moving northwards, and the clash strengthens the jet stream. | 0:02:11 | 0:02:14 | |
Really strong, the Atlantic jet stream | 0:02:14 | 0:02:17 | |
developing from midweek onwards. | 0:02:17 | 0:02:18 | |
The position of the jet means that to the south of it | 0:02:18 | 0:02:21 | |
high pressure builds in, | 0:02:21 | 0:02:23 | |
and that will dominate across more southern parts of the UK. | 0:02:23 | 0:02:26 | |
To the north on Thursday there will still be some strong | 0:02:26 | 0:02:28 | |
and really quite gusty winds and the chance of some rain | 0:02:28 | 0:02:31 | |
mainly over the hills in the west of Scotland. | 0:02:31 | 0:02:33 | |
For much of England and Wales it'll be dry and bright, | 0:02:33 | 0:02:36 | |
a little sunshine, the winds lighter and those | 0:02:36 | 0:02:38 | |
temperatures 13-16 degrees, so really quite mild. | 0:02:38 | 0:02:42 | |
We've got those weather fronts on the scene across the north | 0:02:42 | 0:02:44 | |
and north-west on Friday, higher pressure across England and Wales. | 0:02:44 | 0:02:49 | |
Some patchy rain mainly for the hills of western Scotland. | 0:02:49 | 0:02:52 | |
There will be more cloud for other western areas of the UK. | 0:02:52 | 0:02:54 | |
Best of the sunshine in the east | 0:02:54 | 0:02:57 | |
but above-average temperatures to end the week. | 0:02:57 | 0:03:00 | |
It's high pressure... | 0:03:00 | 0:03:01 | |
The position of high pressure that's really going to be crucial | 0:03:01 | 0:03:04 | |
over the week ahead. | 0:03:04 | 0:03:05 | |
The weekend sees high pressure building in across the UK, | 0:03:05 | 0:03:09 | |
pushing the rain away towards the north-west. | 0:03:09 | 0:03:10 | |
So again, it's dry, there may be some mist and fog | 0:03:10 | 0:03:12 | |
and maybe a touch of frost perhaps | 0:03:12 | 0:03:14 | |
where we've got those lighter winds and clear skies. | 0:03:14 | 0:03:17 | |
Somehow, the high pressure looks like it's going to move away. | 0:03:17 | 0:03:20 | |
There's differences in the computer models but there's | 0:03:20 | 0:03:22 | |
a signal for the start of November to get a northerly wind, | 0:03:22 | 0:03:25 | |
so much colder, perhaps some showers, | 0:03:25 | 0:03:27 | |
some sunshine and maybe a touch of frost. | 0:03:27 | 0:03:29 |