27/12/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello. December has been very mild so far, though it's turned chillier.

What will the new year bring us? Stay tuned for my thoughts on that.

Storm Conor has now blown away north-eastwards,

and high pressure is taking over, settling the weather down,

although that high pressure is going to cause some problems of its

own, as we'll see in a moment.

A very frosty start to the day across much of England and Wales,

and a few pockets of frost further north-west,

but here rather more cloud for Northern Ireland and Scotland

and still the odd shower across the west of Scotland on the breeze,

though the wind nothing like as strong as it was on Boxing Day.

Light winds further south, lots of sunshine, but never all that warm.

Briefly around six or seven degrees early afternoon, before those

temperatures fall away very sharply as we head into the evening.

Another hard frost developing, and under this area of high pressure,

fog patches are going to develop,

and through the middle of the week, I think fog is going to be

a real issue across England and Wales in particular.

And with people on the move between Christmas and New Year, I'm afraid

I'm expecting some disruption from those dense fog patches.

Certainly quite widespread, the fog, across England and Wales,

on Wednesday morning.

Not everywhere, but expect it if you are on the move.

Much of that fog will thin away, but some of it won't,

otherwise plenty of sunshine.

Again for Northern Ireland and Scotland,

more cloud around and some showers across Western Scotland

primarily on the breeze. Relatively mild here, touching double figures.

But further south, despite a lot of sunshine, it will feel quite chilly,

and that'll particularly be the case where those fog patches linger.

And I'm expecting that to happen in some places across parts of

the Midlands and some southern counties.

The fog could well stick around all day long, and where that does

happen, don't expect temperatures to get much above freezing all day.

And again, by Thursday, more fog around,

particularly closest to that area of high pressure,

for parts of England and Wales, keeping it especially chilly.

A bit more breeze again across Northern Ireland and Scotland,

particularly across the far north-west,

with the threat of some patchy rain here,

but once more relatively mild here compared with further south,

especially where those fog patches linger.

As we go from Thursday into Friday, no huge changes,

but you'll notice this weather front approaching the far north-west.

That brings some more persistent rain to the

north-west of Scotland on a strengthening wind.

The breeze will begin to pick up further south,

but I don't think it's going to prevent fog from forming again.

It could be an issue in some places all through the day on Friday,

keeping it especially chilly.

Now, that weather front across the far north-west is going to

start to get its act together as we hit the weekend.

It's going to start to edge its way further south-eastwards,

and some fairly heavy rain on that, as well, on

a strengthening wind, so potentially a wet and windy New Year's Eve here.

Further south and east, again it'll be dry, but enough of a breeze,

I think, to shift that fog at long last.

Now, the big picture shows that front straddled across the

north-west on New Year's Eve.

It's an important front, it's a cold front,

and behind that we're going to see a shot of cold Arctic air actually

flooding down across the whole of the country through New Year's Day.

And that's all being geared by a kink in the jet stream.

You see the extent of that kink as we look at the northern hemisphere.

And when you get a kink in the jet stream that big,

it tends to prevent westerly winds from coming in, so the pattern

is kind of blocked, and what you've got you're likely to keep.

And through early January,

the first few days at least, that does mean some cold weather

with some fairly widespread frost around, as well.

I'll update you again tomorrow.