19/01/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead


19/01/2017

Detailed weather forecast.


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Hello. Changes in the weather for the next six to ten days

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are going to be very slow changes

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because we have got anticyclonic conditions dominating.

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But I suppose the biggest piece of weather news

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that broke on Wednesday was the fact that

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it has been confirmed, the figures are in,

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and 2016, globally, was the warmest on record.

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Which takes us back to what Nick was telling you about

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if you were watching yesterday evening,

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that so far this winter, the UK, at least,

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has been a little milder than average, and drier.

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Now, that said, it's not too far away

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that we've got some very cold air indeed.

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Severe and harsh winter weather is dominating across much of Europe,

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and we are very close by, as you can see,

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to the western edge of that cold weather.

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It's that cold we've seen snow on the beaches in Valencia in Spain.

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And we will still be affected across southern areas on Thursday morning.

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For the majority, the cloud is keeping things relatively mild.

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But there'll be pockets of frost elsewhere,

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but mainly in the south.

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And that will be the story over the coming few days.

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So, for most of us, it is a very similar weather scenario

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Thursday to Wednesday.

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There'll be subtle differences, as there always are.

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Some mist and fog in the morning, and this is low cloud anyway,

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so hill fog will prevail.

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And then we could have a bit more cloud

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coming into East Anglia, for example.

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But some more breaks in the cloud in the north of Scotland.

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And whilst earlier in the week,

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we struggled at three or four in the south,

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we may get to six or seven.

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So we have evened our spread of temperatures

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a little bit in the past 24 hours.

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And that will continue through Thursday night into Friday.

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So Friday morning, again, we get the frost mostly in the south,

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which is where we'll see the best of the sunshine.

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But there will be some pockets of frost and sunshine elsewhere.

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And of course, some fog,

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which at this time of year takes a while to clear.

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And we basically keep that weather pattern until the weekend.

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If anything, I think we will see the cloud thinning,

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and there will be a little bit more sunshine coming through,

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which means some colder nights, more widespread frost

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not as limited, if you like, to southern areas.

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And therefore, it will be colder by day,

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it will take a little while longer for those temperatures to get up.

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They will be more like fours and fives

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than sixes and sevens, potentially.

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The reason? Well, high pressure is still with us.

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We're just starting to feed in a little bit of that colder air

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not too faraway, as I mentioned earlier.

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Similar story on Sunday.

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Very little rain and drizzle - just in the north and west.

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Again, after the chilly start, temperatures are only lifting

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to four or five degrees, so a little bit below par.

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And it is very little change, really, as we head into Monday.

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As you can see, again, it is four to six degrees Celsius.

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We do start to see a strengthening in the wind towards the north-west,

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the approach of a weather front,

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and the approach of that weather front

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will start to bring about a change

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through the early part of next week.

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But it is a very, very slow process.

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So that is low pressure

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starting to whisk in across the North Atlantic

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allowing the weather fronts to come in

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in this wedge of slightly milder air.

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But, dominating either side of that, the cold air.

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And you can see that really is dominant -

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even early next week - across much of Europe.

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It's dense air, it's cold air, it takes a while to clear away.

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And how quickly that low pressure moves into the UK

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depends on how quickly we can start to clear

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that cold air across western parts of Europe.

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So, yes, that is the uncertainty, really, in the forecast.

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Eventually, it looks as if we will see rain from the north and west,

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but until then, some more chilly nights and chilly days.

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