25/01/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead


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25/01/2017

Detailed weather forecast.


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Hello. How's the winter been for you so far?

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Mild for the most part, a few colder spells with some fog and frost,

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but not much rain.

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In fact, that theme extends back to the autumn.

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This chart shows rainfall for autumn,

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the brown colours indicating below average rainfall,

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and as you can see, most of the UK had a dry autumn.

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And that has continued into the early part of the winter

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as well - again, in December,

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the majority of the UK coloured brown, with a few exceptions.

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And it remains mostly dry through January as well.

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And that is because the jetstream,

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which tends to carry our rain-bearing weather fronts,

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has been deflected for much of this winter away from our shores.

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And in its place, high pressure has been the dominant force,

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if you like, through the last few weeks.

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It's still there, underneath that area of high pressure,

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with quite light winds,

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that has allowed fog to form in recent nights and lingering

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into the day, and that is the case again,

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we've got freezing fog around with a possibility of some disruption,

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particularly across these more southern and eastern parts

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of the UK, where the winds are lightest.

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The fog gradually lifting into cloud, not so much sunshine

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around, as we saw during Tuesday, it will feel chillier.

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Best of the sunshine further north and west across England and Wales.

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But I'm afraid it will feel distinctly chilly across

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the more southern and eastern areas.

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On Tuesday, some places reach ten degrees,

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three or four might be the best I can offer you on Wednesday

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afternoon, with perhaps the odd light snow flurry.

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As I say, the best of the sunshine across England and Wales

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will be further north and west, a decent day here.

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For Scotland and Northern Ireland, cloudier but milder here,

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nine or ten Celsius, with some patchy rain,

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particularly across the far north-west of Scotland.

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But as we head into Thursday, we will start to draw air in

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around that high pressure from a very cold source indeed,

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the heart of Europe, which has been freezing for some days now.

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This air will have a real bite to it by the time it reaches

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our shores on Thursday.

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It's going to feel really quite raw, I think, in that wind.

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The odd snow flurry, but a lot of dry weather out there.

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But the main theme will be the chill,

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and temperatures in some places across more central and

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eastern parts of the UK will struggle to get above freezing.

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If you add on the wind, then it's going to feel a lot colder

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than that, despite the fact that many of us will see some sunshine.

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But into Friday, still pretty chilly out there in the wind,

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especially across the more northern and eastern areas.

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Turning a little bit milder further south and west.

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A bit of patchy rain around, though no great amounts.

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And actually, as we go into the weekend,

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weather fronts will try to stagger in off the Atlantic.

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The timing of these features and the position of the rain,

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difficult to nail down.

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So, don't take the position of these blobs of blue too literally.

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There will be some rain around through this weekend,

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and on balance, it will start to turn a little bit milder as well.

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Some places getting up into double figures again on Sunday.

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There could be a bit of patchy rain making its way across

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to eastern areas, but still a lot of dry weather.

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The winds will be fairly light,

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temperatures somewhat higher than they have been recently.

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Looking further ahead

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as we end the month,

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we're going to see the jetstream

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try to wake up and try to push

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weather systems in off the Atlantic,

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but they have been trying to do that

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for some days now, and the computer

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models have been a bit premature in

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spreading rain across the country.

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So, this comes with

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a little bit of a health warning.

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If the jet does succeed through

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the early part of February,

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we'll see some rain,

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but if it continues to be blocked,

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and there is some chance it will do,

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then it remains dry

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with some frost and some fog.

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Big question marks, we will update you again tomorrow.

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