26/01/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead


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26/01/2017

Detailed weather forecast.


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Good evening.

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This time yesterday, John was explaining

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how dry it's been in the last couple of months,

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and that's because we've had high pressure close by.

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A blocked weather pattern.

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That means that the jet stream across the UK

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is quite weak.

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It's diving to the south,

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that's where the strength is,

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pushing the low pressures across Iberia

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and into the Mediterranean,

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whilst the high pressure across Europe

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is blocking the passage of weather fronts,

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which bring out wind and bring our rain.

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So, again, we go into Thursday

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with this blocked weather situation.

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We've got a southeasterly continental air flow,

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which is bringing in colder air

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than we had on Wednesday and hill fog,

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as opposed to low level fog.

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So still pretty grey

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for most of us first thing, and cold.

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Colder, I think, than Wednesday morning.

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It'll stay quite grey for much of the day,

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but temperatures out in the countryside first thing

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will be pretty low, -3, -4.

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Because the cloud is quite thick,

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it's giving us already a little bit of drizzle,

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a little bit of snow.

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Snow graze, not a great deal to amount to,

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but, nevertheless, giving us some quite icy conditions

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on untreated roads and pavements.

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Through the day, little changes.

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Under that cloud, it really will feel cold.

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The best chance of some sunshine

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is to the north-west of Scotland,

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and later in the south.

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But temperatures where we've got the cloud

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barely get above freezing.

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You add on the wind,

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which will be stronger on Thursday,

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and it will feel much colder.

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Now there's a subtle wind direction change on Friday

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from instead of that southeasterly,

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we get more of a southerly off the Bay of Biscay.

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Still quite a strong wind,

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but it means it will be marginally less cold.

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Still cold enough, I think, initially

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for a smattering of snow

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through the first part of Friday in southern areas,

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eastern areas too.

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Primarily, we start to see some heavier showers

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coming into the west as the day progresses.

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So perhaps the start of a change -

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our first weather front to come

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knocking on the door of that high pressure again

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and trying to move it out of the way.

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Actually, it looks as if

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it might succeed through Saturday.

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We might get that band of showery rain,

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or bands of showery rain,

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moving through across the UK,

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temperatures above freezing,

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still cold enough for them to fall as snow,

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those showers over the hills.

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Then that low pressure moves away.

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The next one dives southwards

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across France and the low countries, we think.

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At this stage, Sunday is looking

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like the drier day of the weekend,

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with some good spells of sunshine.

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Not warm sunshine.

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Again, we're only talking about

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6-8 degrees Celsius,

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but it is a more mobile situation.

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We've had one weather front moving through

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already on Saturday. So, yes, the weekend -

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less cold, still quite a few showers around,

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we think, on Saturday with more sunshine come Sunday.

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Then, into Monday, it looks as if things start

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to become more mobile.

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You can see those low pressures starting to line up.

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They do look a little bit more ferocious.

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Not too nasty at this stage,

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but they do look as if they've got

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more energy in them, if you like,

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to try and move this high pressure away from the UK.

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So, eventually some rain comes through

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during the course of Monday.

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It's because -

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well, you can see for yourself.

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By the early part of next week,

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we've got a much more west-to-east jet stream.

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It's stronger across the UK.

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It's more likely to bring us in some rainmakers -

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some wind and some rain.

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High pressure still close by,

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but the chances are,

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we think, that the low pressures

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will also start to bring in

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that change to wind and rain.

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It's how quickly and indeed

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how far south and east it comes

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when it comes against

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that blocking high pressure

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that's been with us for,

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well, a significant amount of time now.

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So, yes, it does look as if we'll see some rain next week,

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and it'll become windier. Gales, severe gales in the north and west.

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It's just how quickly it moves across the whole of the UK

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to affect the south and the east as well.

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