27/01/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead


27/01/2017

Detailed weather forecast.


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Hello. If you were watching Weather For The Week Ahead yesterday,

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I was explaining about our blocked weather pattern,

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the high pressure that's been sat across Europe

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for the past week or two,

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with its dense cold air,

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and how reluctant it is to move away

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to allow the normal succession of low pressures

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to move in off the Atlantic.

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It looks now as if things are going to change.

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But again on Thursday

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we've had the same sort of weather,

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a real contrast where you've had the cloud

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and where you haven't.

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-2 under that continental cloud in the south,

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12-13 degrees in north-west Scotland with the sunshine.

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This is how it looked in Norfolk, with that grey cloud.

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It was bitterly cold too

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because there was a significant wind-chill as well.

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But this the view at St Andrews in Scotland

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and many parts of Scotland,

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Wales, enjoyed the sunshine,

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some late in the south too.

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But through the night, as the cloud breaks

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it's turned cold

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and a frost is quite widespread

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and that's the likelihood

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as we head into Friday morning.

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These are towns and cities.

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In the countryside, it'll be colder still.

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If you add on the strength of the wind,

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it really will be raw out and about.

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Not just that, we've the potential for

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either a bit of rain

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falling on frozen surfaces first thing,

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or indeed potentially some snow for a time.

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Then, as the day progresses,

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we pick up more cloud heading northwards.

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Low cloud and fog

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first thing in the morning.

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So it's cold in the east,

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progressively less cold further west.

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The start of a change.

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The change is being brought about very slowly,

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but during Thursday

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we have the cold continental air.

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Through Friday we have slightly less cold air

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coming from the Bay of Biscay.

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Finally, by Saturday, we start to pull in

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Atlantic south-westerlies.

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But it will still be cold in eastern areas

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and very icy potentially in the west, Saturday morning.

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and very icy potentially in the west, Saturday morning.

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So we've still got a hint of winter.

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The showers could still fall as snow over the hills.

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But it's gradually warming up.

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This is the fly in the ointment for the weekend,

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this mass of rain behind me.

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And exactly where it's going to go

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is giving us a headache at the moment.

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At the moment, it looks like

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it'll affect southern parts of the UK.

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To the north of that,

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a cold, frosty start, but sunshine to be found.

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That then whisks out of the way

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Sunday night into the start of Monday

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when we start to see the low pressures

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getting progressively further northwards

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and filling much of the North Atlantic,

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as you can see.

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So it's getting wetter,

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with bands of cloud bringing that rain in

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and windier too.

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And by the time we get to Monday,

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our temperatures are into double figures

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in most parts of England and Wales,

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and not for off for Scotland and N Ireland.

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That area of low pressure dominates

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most of the North Atlantic.

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And fairly tightly packed isobars means

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there will be gales

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or even severe gale force winds at times,

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as the more mobile weather situation takes over.

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So, for most of the start of January,

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we've had this blocking system.

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The weather systems haven't been allowed

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to run from west to east,

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But the upper winds, the jet stream,

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are now starting to strengthen

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to allow more mobility,

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more weather systems to cross the UK.

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Next week, the high pressure's

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still with us over continental Europe,

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but the low pressures are being allowed

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to make inroads into the north and west.

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That's where we'll see the wettest and windiest weather,

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but it looks like the whole UK

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will be in a milder, slightly more unsettled regime.

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This is a much lower probability

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that potentially at the end of the week

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those low pressures could head southwards

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and pull cold air into the south and east again.

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At the moment, though,

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the majority of the computer models think

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we'll keep with that south-westerly,

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mobile weather picture.

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