01/03/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello. We're about to head into March.

Time for a quick look back at February and it may not come

as too much of a surprise to hear that February was warmer

than average, confirmed by this map here,

the pink hues indicating

temperatures above average

by almost two degrees.

There wasn't too much

in the way of frost or snow.

But, for the first of March,

the blues dominate the chart,

the mild areas being kept to the south,

for the most part.

The division between the mild

and the cold delineated by the jet stream.

The jet stream is mostly

to the south of us through this week

and this is a theme I'll return to

at the end of the broadcast

to discuss next week.

Now, along the line of the jet stream,

we see weather systems

and because the jet is along southern areas,

this is where most

of the rain-bearing weather systems

will be during the course of the next 48 hours or so.

In fact, one such system

pushing into southern counties

during the course of the day,

bringing some outbreaks of rain.

Further north into the colder air,

we actually see the best of the sunshine.

There will be some wintry showers

across the north of Scotland,

but for most of Scotland

and most of Northern Ireland,

plenty of sunshine. Not exactly warm,

we are in the cold air here

so just five or six degrees, typically.

A few showers across parts of northern England,

but some brightness.

Down into the north Midlands, too,

but points south of that

will be rather grey and damp

through the afternoon at three o'clock.

It'll be rather miserable

with some rain from time to time.

It'll feel quite chilly,

temperatures around seven or eight degrees,

and then things really liven up

as we head into the night.

Winds will increase.

We could well see gales in exposed places

and, as the rain heads northwards again,

we could well see it turning to snow

as it hits that cold air

across parts of north Wales,

parts of northern England,

maybe Northern Ireland as well.

That is certainly one to watch

so a combination of very strong winds, rain

and potentially some snow could cause some disruption

so watch out for warnings over the next few hours.

As we go through the day,

so things will tend to settle down.

The worst of the gales will subside.

Still some dampness through this central slice,

but some brighter weather on either side

and temperatures across southern areas

will pick up. Some of that milder air

trying to creep in so up into double figures here,

still distinctly chilly further north.

And as we end the week,

we've got another area of low pressure

pushing in from the south-west on that jet stream

and that's going to push into southern areas,

bringing a rather disappointing end to the week

with some potentially quite wet weather.

There's a bit of uncertainty about how far

and how quickly the rain extends its way northwards,

but for most of Northern Ireland and Scotland,

again here in the chillier air,

but the best of the brightness further southwards.

Temperatures technically higher, but with the rain,

it won't feel all that clever

and that low pressure system's going to sit around

for much of the weekend.

This is Saturday's chart,

the low going nowhere fast

so the bottom line is for this weekend,

it's going to be rather disappointing for some.

There'll be some wet weather at times, quite blustery winds.

I think for most of us,

it'll continue to feel on the chilly side.

So, what about next week?

The computer models are in some disagreement.

One scenario is that the jet stays to the south

and that we stay in the chilly air

as we go through the first few days of March.

Another scenario -

other computer models are indicating

that that jet will start to move northwards,

allowing some milder air in from the south

and the south-west with hints of something

a little bit more spring-like

so still quite a lot of uncertainty.

Hopefully, things will become clearer

over the next 24 hours.

I'll speak to you again tomorrow.