08/03/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello. This is the forecast

that doesn't just look at this week's weather,

but goes into next week, too.

And next week, we're becoming more certain

that high pressure will be a player once again in our weather,

settling things down for a time.

But we are less certain about how long things are settled

and the exact influence of that high pressure on our weather,

especially in terms of temperature.

And we'll analyse some of the reasons for that uncertainty

by looking at some computer model forecasts in a moment.

This week, though, it's all about low pressure.

And low pressure for Wednesday is anchored to the north of Scotland.

If you're close to that, you've got strong to gale-force winds,

especially in northern Scotland, with plenty of showers.

There's a trailing weather front across southern parts of the UK,

with cloud and outbreaks of rain.

But for much of northern England,

Northern Ireland and southern Scotland,

it's dry, it's fairly sunny

and around low pressure for the next few days,

there is a flow of fairly mild air coming our way,

so widely temperatures in double figures.

Showers easing in northern Scotland on Thursday.

Not so much rain in the far south of England,

though some into the south-west.

Many places, though, dry and bright and mild.

On Friday, we take some cloud and rain northwards,

plenty of cloud, even, behind that.

But it's still mild, just not as much sunshine.

And here's the big picture going into the weekend.

There's low pressure for you.

Still weather fronts coming our way on, initially, a flow of mild air.

Breezy to windy on Saturday.

There'll be bands of wet weather moving through.

But there'll be drier, brighter slots in between.

And it's still initially quite mild.

Now, it could well be that Saturday night it clearer and colder.

Sunday temperatures have come down a few degrees

and, again, another spell of wet weather moving through,

or there'll be showers around.

So the weekend is unsettled low pressure in control.

But back to those thoughts now about high pressure.

The picture going into the start of next week,

the Azores high building in the Atlantic to the west of us

and beginning to topple over the UK.

That's the settling down process into the start of next week.

So we could see a touch of frost overnight.

By day, variable cloud and sunny spells.

We're becoming more certain about that.

Less certain, though, about how long that high pressure

is going to stick around.

Now, to illustrate that,

I want to show you some different computer model forecasts

for the same period into the middle of next week,

particularly Wednesday.

Computer models churn out these forecasts,

based on analysis of the atmosphere now, using equations,

and project that into the future.

And that's how we come up with these forecasts in the longer range.

So here is one.

Middle of the week next week, it actually looks very similar,

with high pressure close by

and quite a similar position to the start of the week.

If this comes off, temperatures will be close to average

and many places will be dry still.

Here's another one.

Well, high pressure is actually closer to the UK.

If this were to come off, it would be quite spring-like and mild.

But if you're to the far north-west of UK,

this low pressure nearby, it's windier here

and rain-bearing weather fronts may have an impact.

Here's another one. Same period - midweek.

It is completely different.

The high pressure is in Scandinavia.

Around that, there could well be a flow of colder air

coming in towards at least the south and east of the UK.

To the north-west, you're still close to low pressure.

So three computer model outputs for the same period.

If they were all the same, we'd say,

"Yeah, we think that's definitely going to happen."

But they're not.

So there is uncertainty for the second half of next week.

So what can we say about next week's weather?

Well, high pressure - all of those had them nearby.

So drier for many of us, compared with this week.

But temperatures still open to question.

And that's a look at the weather for next week. Lots of questions.

We do eventually answer them, we just have to become more certain.