07/03/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead


07/03/2017

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Hello. Often, when I'm preparing this forecast,

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there's a clear story to tell -

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the weather's one thing now and it's going to become something else.

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Not so this time.

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It will turn milder later this week,

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but the return of colder air - how cold it will be and for how long

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is still open to significant question.

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I'll try to answer some of those questions

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in a couple of minutes' time.

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First of all, though, a view of some gorgeous weather from Monday

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on the Isle of Man.

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It wasn't like that everywhere. It certainly wasn't in western France.

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This area of low pressure gave a glancing blow

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to south-west England and the Channel Islands with some rain

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that brought to an exposed part of north-west France

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a wind gust near 120mph.

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We dodged that.

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That area of low pressure quickly moving south-east

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and so, by Tuesday, it's across Italy.

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There are storm warnings enforced in Sardinia

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and very gusty winds blowing down through the south of France.

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In contrast, we have a ridge of high pressure.

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So we have light winds for Tuesday.

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In fact, plenty of fine, dry weather to come.

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A few showers in north-west Scotland,

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some outbreaks of rain in Shetland

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and there is a frontal system coming back from the Atlantic,

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so for Northern Ireland, Wales and the south-west,

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outbreaks of rain moving in in the afternoon,

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with the wind freshening, too.

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That all pushes east on Tuesday night.

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Most of that's gone by Wednesday.

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Close to an area of low pressure we have gales, though,

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in northern Scotland with showers.

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We still have a trailing weather front,

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with clouds and outbreaks of rain to the south yet to push away.

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Elsewhere, we have some sunny spells

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and temperatures are creeping up a few degrees.

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Now, this area of cloud and rain

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isn't going to stop that process of it turning milder.

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In fact, it will help that process on Thursday and Friday,

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as it pushes its way northwards,

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because it is a warm front - the leading edge of milder air.

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So, gradually, that spreads north on Thursday into Friday,

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introducing that milder air from the south.

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So particularly by Friday, widely into double figures,

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some spots into the mid-teens.

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But don't get your sunglasses out.

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There will be plenty of cloud around,

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a bit of drizzling rain at times, especially in the west.

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But it will feel mild.

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And that takes us on to the weekend.

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Now, the idea for the weekend is it will turn more widely unsettled,

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again, either with weather fronts moving through

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or distinct areas of low pressure that could turn things quite windy.

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It probably won't look like this

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or like this.

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But just expect at the weekend for some occasional wet weather

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and for it to be quite windy

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and for temperatures to come down a few degrees.

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Now, the idea going into the start of next week

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is that we get an area of high pressure for a time

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to just settle things down,

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but bring the possibility of some widespread overnight frost.

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Now, how long this more settled, colder weather will last,

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well, the preferred solution is that,

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after the start of next week we then, for the rest of next week,

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get into a more mobile weather pattern again,

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with the jet stream, though,

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a little bit further north than this week.

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So instead of low pressure going right across the UK,

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they're closer to the north-west.

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The closer you are to the north-west of the UK,

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the more likely it is you see wet, windy weather at times.

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Relative high pressure to the south,

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so here those weather fronts, when they move through,

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have less oomph and you're more settled,

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you may get some frosty nights.

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So there is a north-west wet and windy at times,

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south-east more settled split going on next week.

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Now, we have talked about the possibility

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of something colder for longer arriving at some stage.

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That is still not nailed on next week with any detail, any timing

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to really point at that and go,

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"Yes, it's happening and this is why."

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So park that thought for now. Don't forget where you've put your keys.

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We will get back to it and we will look at it again

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in the next Weather For The Week Ahead.

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