16/05/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead


16/05/2017

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Hello. For several weeks the weather talk was

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all about high pressure, keeping it dry if you're lucky,

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some sunshine, and some warmth.

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In fact if you go back a week to last Monday

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this is how it looked in Northern Ireland.

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Plenty of blue sky. Temperature reaching 20 Celsius.

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Fast forward seven days, and this

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Monday was a completely different affair.

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Yes, it brightened up at the end of the day but it was cloudy and

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wet for a large part of it and in fact Murlough in County Down

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received 29 millimetres of rain.

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Some spots receiving more rain in May

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so far than in the whole of April.

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They are soaking in Threave in Dumfries and Galloway,

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there's Murlough for you, and Capel Curig, a very wet Monday.

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Not so much rain in south-east England.

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That could well change at the end of Wednesday as we'll see in a moment.

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And high pressure is no longer on the scene.

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It is across a large part of continental Europe.

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Not for us though.

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We are under the influence of low pressure. That means weather

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fronts and more rain to come for many us during Tuesday.

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It will be a dry start for much of Scotland and Northern Ireland

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but some outbreaks of rain from west to east during the day.

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The sunshine coming out again afterwards.

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This weather system for Northern England, Wales,

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the south-west, edges into the Midlands,

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moving very slowly, grinding

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to a halt, leaving much of East Anglia and south-east England dry.

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The warmest weather here with some sunny breaks, very muggy too,

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but by the end of the day it'll feel fresher in Scotland and

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Northern Ireland once the sun appears behind the rain.

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But under clear skies here on Tuesday night it will be

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a chillier night.

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On Wednesday, sunshine, scattered showers, but for England and

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Wales, look how this weather system comes back to life,

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an expanding area of quite heavy rain pushing its way

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northwards and then sweeping through East Anglia and south-east

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England on Wednesday evening with the potential for some heavy,

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thundery rain that could be disruptive.

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So it's certainly a weather system to keep an eye on.

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Now going into Thursday that does pull away but it is still low

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pressure in control.

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We've changed the wind direction now. The wind is lighter, but it's

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coming not from this mild, muggy south-westerly

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but more of west-north-westerly going into Thursday.

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That's pulling this cooler, fresher air across the UK.

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So things start to feel a little bit different.

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But as I mentioned it is still low pressure.

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That means although you may start

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dry and sunny on Thursday, clouds build

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and there will be showers breaking out and some of those

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could be heavy.

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It's a similar picture on Friday.

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It could be quite a chilly start on Friday.

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And then we get the clouds building.

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Then the showers could be more widespread on Friday.

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Heavy, possibly thundery, hail, slow moving,

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with very light winds.

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This showery weather pattern continues into the weekend

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because you can see low pressure is still very much in control of

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things going from Friday into Saturday.

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Fairly light winds around, catch a shower,

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could hang around for a while.

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On Saturday there is the potential for some showers merging to

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give some longer spells of rain in places.

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Notice how the temperatures have come down so it's a cooler,

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fresher feel to things but still quite pleasant in the sunshine

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in between the showers.

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As we look a bit further ahead going into next week there is

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a battle going on.

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If you watched the last Weather for the Week Ahead the indication was

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that high-pressure would move in next week and settle things down

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but it looks like low pressure is very reluctant to give up the game

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and it is going to hang around,

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so this pattern of sunshine and showers could

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continue for much of next week.

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So the best thinking at the moment is that at least the first

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half of the week will be showery,

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then high pressure will start to build in from the Atlantic,

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drying things little bit, settling things a little bit

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by the end of the week but there is still

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a lot to play for in terms of timing.

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Until then more rain in the forecast.

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Let's face it, it's been a while.

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