31/05/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead


31/05/2017

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October to March across the UK was the driest for 20 years.

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April was also very dry.

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Now, the figures for May for all but the last two days from

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the Met Office shows it's again been dry across the north and west of

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the UK, but a different story for the south-east and eastern England,

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where we've had average if not above average rainfall for

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the month, mainly because we've had plumes of warm air bringing

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thundery rain, just as we had over the bank holiday weekend.

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That plume of bank holiday rain is pushed away and instead now

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we're seeing high pressure building across the UK.

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It's introduced some cooler,

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fresher air from the Midlands northward, so a more comfortable

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night for sleeping and lots of sunshine on the way on Wednesday.

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Further south, across southern parts of England and into Wales,

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there will be more cloud. That will break up,

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though there could be one or two isolated light showers.

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Most places are going to have a dry day,

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nice day for the end of may with some sunshine around,

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and if anything, temperatures will be higher than they were on Tuesday,

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particularly inland.

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High pressure, then, sitting across the UK on Wednesday.

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It does tend to get bumped away slowly towards the east by

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a big area of low pressure filling the Atlantic

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and this approaching weather front.

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That's sitting there for a while,

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and whilst it's doing that it's scooping up this warm air

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from the near continent, so we'll find temperatures continuing to rise

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on Thursday and perhaps into Friday as well.

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The band of rain moves into Northern Ireland,

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into Western Scotland. Eastern Scotland may well stay dry,

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and across England and Wales, with some sunshine, those temperatures

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are continuing to rise, so mid-20s in the south-east, for example.

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You can see how slowly this band of rain moves across Scotland

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and Northern Ireland,

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only into westernmost parts of England and Wales on Friday.

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Central and eastern areas, it's dry,

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those temperatures continuing to rise.

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We could see a few thundery downpours clipping

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the south-east, though, later on in the day.

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That should get washed away, though, for this weekend.

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We're going to be left with some sunny spells,

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a scattering of showers and probably a slightly cooler

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and fresher feel, particularly across the south-east of the UK.

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The fly in the ointment is that weather front which is

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continuing to push slowly towards the south-east overnight into

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Saturday morning, and there's still the threat of some rain

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just clipping that south-eastern corner of England.

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Not far away, there will be some thunderstorms.

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That should clear away, that's how it looks at the moment,

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and generally we're into this slightly cooler,

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fresher air with some sunshine and a scattering of showers,

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the main focus of the showers more towards the north-west.

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Now, for the second half of the weekend there are three areas

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of low pressure close by -

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none of them right over the UK but still the air is going to be

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unstable enough so that we will generate some showers.

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But there will be some good spells of sunshine,

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some of the showers could be on the heavy side, and we're going

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to find temperatures 14 in Glasgow,

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perhaps as high as 20 in London.

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Now, early next week we've got an area of high pressure that

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extends from Biscay across the south-east of the UK,

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but an area of low pressure is approaching from the Atlantic,

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starting to push in some stronger winds and some rain as well.

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Now, as we move further into next week,

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the high pressure looks like it will start to push further north,

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so the centres of the low pressure will also track

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a little bit further north, steered of course by the jet stream.

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So, what does that all mean as we head into next week?

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It means that it's the north-west of the UK that's more likely to be

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somewhat cooler, windier and also wetter.

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The south-east of the UK will see the driest and the warmest weather,

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particularly when the sun is out.

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That's it from me, goodbye.

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